Weather and Climate Dynamics
Weather and Climate Dynamics
WCD
Articles | Volume 7, issue 2
Articles | Volume 7, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-915-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-915-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 7, issue 2
Research article
 | 
12 Jun 2026
Research article |  | 12 Jun 2026

Predictability of cyclones associated with heavy precipitation events in the Sahara

Guorong Ling, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, and Moshe Armon

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Short summary
This research examines how well storms that bring heavy rain to the Sahara can be predicted. Using satellite observations and ensemble weather forecasts, we show that predictability varies by season, location, and circulation pattern, with an upper limit of about ten days. These insights can improve early flood warnings and support better planning for scarce water resources in desert regions.
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