Articles | Volume 2, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-759-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-759-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Resampling of ENSO teleconnections: accounting for cold-season evolution reduces uncertainty in the North Atlantic
Martin P. King
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bergen, Norway
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Camille Li
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Stefan Sobolowski
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Related authors
Stephen Outten, Camille Li, Martin P. King, Lingling Suo, Peter Y. F. Siew, Hoffman Cheung, Richard Davy, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Tore Furevik, Shengping He, Erica Madonna, Stefan Sobolowski, Thomas Spengler, and Tim Woollings
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 95–114, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-95-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-95-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Strong disagreement exists in the scientific community over the role of Arctic sea ice in shaping wintertime Eurasian cooling. The observed Eurasian cooling can arise naturally without sea-ice loss but is expected to be a rare event. We propose a framework that incorporates sea-ice retreat and natural variability as contributing factors. A helpful analogy is of a dice roll that may result in cooling, warming, or anything in between, with sea-ice loss acting to load the dice in favour of cooling.
Ling Zhang, Lu Li, Zhongshi Zhang, Joël Arnault, Stefan Sobolowski, Xiaoling Chen, Jianzhong Lu, Anthony Musili Mwanthi, Pratik Kad, Mohammed Abdullahi Hassan, Tanja Portele, Harald Kunstmann, and Zhengkang Zuo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 4109–4132, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-4109-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-4109-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
To address challenges related to unreliable hydrological simulations, we present an enhanced hydrological simulation with a refined climate model and a more comprehensive hydrological model. The model with the two parts outperforms that without, especially in migrating bias in peak flow and dry-season flow. Our findings highlight the enhanced hydrological simulation capability, with the refined climate and lake module contributing 24 % and 76 % improvement, respectively.
Lise Seland Graff, Jerry Tjiputra, Ada Gjermundsen, Andreas Born, Jens Boldingh Debernard, Heiko Goelzer, Yan-Chun He, Petra Margaretha Langebroek, Aleksi Nummelin, Dirk Olivié, Øyvind Seland, Trude Storelvmo, Mats Bentsen, Chuncheng Guo, Andrea Rosendahl, Dandan Tao, Thomas Toniazzo, Camille Li, Stephen Outten, and Michael Schulz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-472, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-472, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The magnitude of future Arctic amplification is highly uncertain. Using the Norwegian Earth system model, we explore the effect of improving the representation of clouds, ocean eddies, the Greenland ice sheet, sea ice, and ozone on the projected Arctic winter warming in a coordinated experiment set. These improvements all lead to enhanced projected Arctic warming, with the largest changes found in the sea-ice retreat regions and the largest uncertainty on the Atlantic side.
Peter Yu Feng Siew, Camille Li, Stefan Pieter Sobolowski, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, and Mingfang Ting
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 985–996, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-985-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-985-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The atmospheric circulation response to surface heating at various latitudes was investigated within an idealized framework. We confirm previous results on the importance of temperature advection for balancing heating at lower latitudes. Further poleward, transient eddies become increasingly important, and eventually radiative cooling also contributes. This promotes amplified surface warming for high-latitude heating and has implications for links between sea ice loss and polar amplification.
Bjørg Risebrobakken, Mari F. Jensen, Helene R. Langehaug, Tor Eldevik, Anne Britt Sandø, Camille Li, Andreas Born, Erin Louise McClymont, Ulrich Salzmann, and Stijn De Schepper
Clim. Past, 19, 1101–1123, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1101-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1101-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In the observational period, spatially coherent sea surface temperatures characterize the northern North Atlantic at multidecadal timescales. We show that spatially non-coherent temperature patterns are seen both in further projections and a past warm climate period with a CO2 level comparable to the future low-emission scenario. Buoyancy forcing is shown to be important for northern North Atlantic temperature patterns.
Maria Chara Karypidou, Stefan Pieter Sobolowski, Lorenzo Sangelantoni, Grigory Nikulin, and Eleni Katragkou
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1887–1908, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1887-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1887-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Southern Africa is listed among the climate change hotspots; hence, accurate climate change information is vital for the optimal preparedness of local communities. In this work we assess the degree to which regional climate models (RCMs) are influenced by the global climate models (GCMs) from which they receive their lateral boundary forcing. We find that although GCMs exert a strong impact on RCMs, RCMs are still able to display substantial improvement relative to the driving GCMs.
Stephen Outten, Camille Li, Martin P. King, Lingling Suo, Peter Y. F. Siew, Hoffman Cheung, Richard Davy, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Tore Furevik, Shengping He, Erica Madonna, Stefan Sobolowski, Thomas Spengler, and Tim Woollings
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 95–114, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-95-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-95-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Strong disagreement exists in the scientific community over the role of Arctic sea ice in shaping wintertime Eurasian cooling. The observed Eurasian cooling can arise naturally without sea-ice loss but is expected to be a rare event. We propose a framework that incorporates sea-ice retreat and natural variability as contributing factors. A helpful analogy is of a dice roll that may result in cooling, warming, or anything in between, with sea-ice loss acting to load the dice in favour of cooling.
Tim Woollings, Camille Li, Marie Drouard, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Karim A. Elmestekawy, Momme Hell, Brian Hoskins, Cheikh Mbengue, Matthew Patterson, and Thomas Spengler
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 61–80, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-61-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-61-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper investigates large-scale atmospheric variability in polar regions, specifically the balance between large-scale turbulence and Rossby wave activity. The polar regions are relatively more dominated by turbulence than lower latitudes, but Rossby waves are found to play a role and can even be triggered from high latitudes under certain conditions. Features such as cyclone lifetimes, high-latitude blocks, and annular modes are discussed from this perspective.
Maria Chara Karypidou, Eleni Katragkou, and Stefan Pieter Sobolowski
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3387–3404, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3387-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3387-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The region of southern Africa (SAF) is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and is projected to experience severe precipitation shortages in the coming decades. Reliable climatic information is therefore necessary for the optimal adaptation of local communities. In this work we show that regional climate models are reliable tools for the simulation of precipitation over southern Africa. However, there is still a great need for the expansion and maintenance of observational data.
Clio Michel, Erica Madonna, Clemens Spensberger, Camille Li, and Stephen Outten
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1131–1148, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1131-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1131-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models still struggle to correctly represent blocking frequency over the North Atlantic–European domain. This study makes use of five large ensembles of climate simulations and the ERA-Interim reanalyses to investigate the Greenland blocking frequency and one of its drivers, namely cyclonic Rossby wave breaking. We particularly try to understand the discrepancies between two specific models, out of the five, that behave differently.
Erica Madonna, David S. Battisti, Camille Li, and Rachel H. White
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 777–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-777-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-777-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The amount of precipitation over Europe varies substantially from year to year, with impacts on crop yields and energy production. In this study, we show that it is possible to infer much of the winter precipitation and temperature signal over Europe by knowing only the frequency of occurrence of certain atmospheric circulation patterns. The results highlight the importance of (daily) weather for understanding and interpreting seasonal signals.
Trude Eidhammer, Adam Booth, Sven Decker, Lu Li, Michael Barlage, David Gochis, Roy Rasmussen, Kjetil Melvold, Atle Nesje, and Stefan Sobolowski
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4275–4297, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4275-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4275-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We coupled a detailed snow–ice model (Crocus) to represent glaciers in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Hydro model and tested it on a well-studied glacier. Several observational systems were used to evaluate the system, i.e., satellites, ground-penetrating radar (used over the glacier for snow depth) and stake observations for glacier mass balance and discharge measurements in rivers from the glacier. Results showed improvements in the streamflow projections when including the model.
Cited articles
Abid, M. A., Kucharski, F., Molteni, F., Kang, I.-S., Tompkins, A. M., and
Almazroui, M.: Separating the Indian and Pacific Ocean impacts on the
Euro-Atlantic response to ENSO and its transition from early to late
winter, J. Climate, 34, 1531–1548, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0075.1, 2021. a, b, c
Baldwin, M. P., Birner, T., Brasseur, G., Burrows, J., Butchart, N., Garcia,
R., Geller, M., Gray, L., Hamilton, K., Harnik, N., Hegglin, M. I.,
Langematz, U., Robock, A., Sato, K., and Scaife, A. A.: 100 years of progress
in understanding the stratosphere and mesosphere, Meteor. Mon., 59,
27.1–27.62, https://doi.org/10.1175/AMSMONOGRAPHS-D-19-0003.1, 2019. a
Bladé, I., Newman, M., Alexander, M. A., and Scott, J. D.: The late fall
extratropical response to ENSO: Sensitivity to coupling and convection in
the tropical West Pacific, J. Climate, 21, 6101–6118,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI1612.1, 2008. a
Brönnimann, S., Xoplaki, E., Casty, C., Pauling, A., and Luterbacher, J.:
ENSO influence on Europe during the last centuries, Clim. Dynam., 28,
181–197, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0175-z, 2007. a
Bulmer, M. G.: Principles of statistics, Dover Publications, 2 edn., New York, 1979. a
Cash, B. A., Barimalala, R., Kinter III, J. L., Altshuler, E. L., Fennessy, M. J., Manganelo, J. V., Molteni, F., Towers, P., and Vitart, F.: Sampling variability and the changing ENSO-monsoon
relationship, Clim. Dynam., 48, 4071–4079, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3320-3,
2017. a
Compo, G. P., Whitaker, J. S., Sardeshmukh, P. D., Matsui, N., Allan, R. J., Yin, X., Gleason, B. E., Vose, R. S., Rutledge, G., Bessemoulin, P., Bronnimann, S., Brunet, M., Crouthamel, R. I., Grant, A. N., Groisman, P. Y., Jones, P. D., Kruk, M. C., Kruger, A. C., Marshall, G. J., Maugeri, M., Mok, H. Y., Nordli, Ø., Ross, T. F., Trigo, R. M., Wang, X. L., Woodruff, S. D., and Worley, S. J.: The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project, Q.
J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 1–28, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.776, 2011. a
Deser, C., Simpson, I. R., McKinnon, K. A., and Phillips, A. S.: The Northern
Hemisphere extratropical atmospheric circulation response to ENSO: How
well do we know it and how do we evaluate models accordingly?, J. Climate,
30, 5059–5082, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0844.1, 2017. a, b
Deser, C., Simpson, I. R., Phillips, A. S., and McKinnon, K. A.: How well do we
know ENSO's climate impacts over North America, and how do we evaluate
models accordingly?, J. Climate, 31, 4991–5014,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0783.1, 2018. a
Domeisen, D. I. V., Garfinkel, C. I., and Butler, A. H.: The teleconnection of
El Niño Southern Oscillation to the stratosphere, Rev. Geophys., 57,
5–47, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018RG000596, 2019. a, b, c
Efron, B. and Hastie, T.: Computer age statistical inference, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2016. a
Feng, J., Chen, W., and Li, Y.: Asymmetry of the winter extra-tropical
teleconnections in the Northern Hemisphere associated with two types of
ENSO, Clim. Dynam., 48, 2135–2151, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3196-2, 2017. a, b
Frauen, C., Dommenget, D., Tyrrell, N., Rezny, M., and Wales, S.: Analysis of
nonlinearity of El Nino-Southern Oscillation teleconnections, J. Climate,
27, 6225–6244, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00757.1, 2014. a, b
Garfinkel, C. I., Hurwitz, M. M., Waugh, D. W., and Butler, A. H.: Are the
teleconnections of central Pacific and eastern Pacific El Nino distinct
in boreal winter, Clim. Dynam., 41, 1835–1852,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1570-2, 2013. a, b, c
Hardiman, S. C., Dunstone, N. J., Scaife, A. A., Smith, D. M., Ineson, S., Lim,
J., and Fereday, D.: The impact of strong El Niño and La Niña
events on the North Atlantic, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 2874–2883,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081776, 2019. a, b
Hardiman, S. C., Dunstone, N. J., Scaife, A. A., Smith, D. M., Knight, J. R.,
Davies, P., Claus, M., and Greatbatch, R. J.: Predictability of European
winter 2019/20: Indian Ocean dipole impacts on the NAO, Atmos.
Sci. Lett., 21, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1005, 2020. a
Jiménez-Esteve, B. and Domeisen, D. I. V.: The tropospheric pathway of the
ENSO-North Atlantic teleconnection, J. Climate, 31, 4563–4584,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0716.1, 2018. a
Jiménez-Esteve, B. and Domeisen, D. I. V.: Nonlinearity in the tropospheric
pathway of ENSO to the North Atlantic, Weather Clim. Dynam., 1,
225–245, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-225-2020, 2020. a
Joshi, M. K., Abid, M. A., and Kucharski, F.: The role of an Indian Ocean
heating dipole in the ENSO teleconnection to the North Atlantic European
region in early winter during 20th century in Reanalysis and CMIP5
simulations, J. Climate, 34, 1047–1060, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0269.1,
2021. a, b, c
King, M. P.: Supplementary data for “Resampling of ENSO teleconnections” manuscript, [data set], Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4587405, 2021. a
King, M. P., Herceg-Bulic, I., Blade, I., Garcia-Serrano, J., Keenlyside, N.,
Kucharski, F., Li, C., and Sobolowski, S.: Importance of late fall ENSO
teleconnection in the Euro-Atlantic Sector, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 99, 1337–1343, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0020.1, 2018a. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h
King, M. P., Herceg-Bulic, I., Kucharski, F., and Keenlyside, N.: Interannual
tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies teleconnection to
Northern Hemisphere atmosphere in November, Clim. Dynam., 50, 1881–1899,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3727-5, 2018b. a, b
King, M. P., Yu, E., and Sillmann, J.: Impact of strong and extreme El
Niños on European hydroclimate, Tellus A, 72, 1704342,
https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2019.1704342, 2020. a, b
Mezzina, B., García-Serrano, J., Bladé, I., and Kucharski, F.:
Dynamics of the ENSO teleconnection and NAO variability in the North
Atlantic-European late winter, J. Climate, 33, 907–923,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0192.1, 2020. a
Michel, C., Simpson, I. R., Bethke, I., King, M. P., and Sobolowski, S.: The
change in the ENSO teleconnection under a low global warming scenario and
the uncertainty due to internal variability, J. Climate, 33, 4871–4889,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0730.1, 2020. a, b, c
Molteni, F., Roberts, C. D., Senan, R., Keeley, S. P. E., Belluci, A., Corti,
S., Franco, R. F., Haarsma, R., Levine, X., Putrasahan, D., Roberts, M. J.,
and Terray, L.: Boreal-winter teleconnections with tropical Indo-Pacific
rainfall in HighResMIP historical simulations from the PRIMAVERA project,
Clim. Dynam., 55, 1843–1873, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05358-4, 2020. a, b, c
Moron, V. and Gouirand, I.: Seasonal modulation of the El Niño–Souther
Oscillation relationship with sea level pressure anomalies over the North
Atlantic in October–March 1873–1996, Int. J. Climatol., 23, 143–155,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.868, 2003. a, b, c
Rayner, N. A., Parker, D. E., Horton, E. B., Folland, C. K., Alexander, L. V., Rowell, D. P., Kent, E. C., and Kaplan, A.: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea
ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century, J.
Geophys. Res., 108, 4407, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002670, 2003.
a
Scaife, A. A., Arribas, A., Blockley, E., Brookshaw, A., Clark, R. T.,
Dunstone, N., Eade, R., Fereday, D., Folland, C. K., Gordon, M., Hermanson,
L., Knight, J. R., Lea, D. J., MacLachlan, C., Maidens, A., Martin, N.,
Peterson, A. K., Smith, D., Vellinga, M., Wallace, E., Waters, J., and
Williams, A.: Skillful long-range prediction of European and North
American winters, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 2514–2519,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059637, 2014. a
Scaife, A. A., Comer, R. E., Dunstone, N. J., Knight, J. R., Smith, D. M.,
MacLachlan, C., Martin, N., Peterson, K. A., Rowlands, D., Carroll, E. B.,
Belcher, S., and Slingo, J.: Tropical rainfall, Rossby waves and regional
winter climate predictions, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 143, 1–11,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2910, 2016. a
Spiegel, M. R. and Liu, J.: Mathematical handbook of formulas and tables,
2 edn., McGraw-Hill, New York, USA, 1999. a
Stockdale, T. N., Molteni, F., and Ferranti, L.: Atmospheric initial conditions
and the predictability of the Arctic Oscillation, Geophys. Res. Lett.,
42, 1173–1179, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062681, 2015. a
Taylor, K. E.: Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single
diagram, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 7183–7192, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JD900719,
2001. a
Toniazzo, T. and Scaife, A. A.: The influence of ENSO on winter North
Atlantic climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L24704,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027881, 2006. a, b, c
Trascasa-Castro, P., Maycock, A. C., Yiu, Y. Y. S., and Fletcher, J. K.: On the
linearity of the stratospheric and Euro-Atlantic response to ENSO, J.
Climate, 32, 6607–6626, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0746.1, 2019. a, b
Trenberth, K. E., Branstator, G. W., Karoly, D., Kumar, A., Lau, N.-C., and
Ropelewski, C.: Progress during TOGA in understanding and modeling global
teleconnections associated with tropical sea surface temperatures, J.
Geophys. Res., 103, 14291–14324, https://doi.org/10.1029/97JC01444, 1998. a
van Oldenborgh, G. J. and Burgers, G.: Searching for decadal variations in ENSO
precipitation teleconnections, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L15701,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023110, 2005. a
Volpi, D., Batté, L., Guérémy, J.-F., and Déqué, M.:
Teleconnection-based evaluation of seasonal forecast quality, Clim. Dynam.,
55, 1353–1365, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05327-x, 2020. a
Weinberger, I., Garfinkel, C. I., White, I. P., and Oman, L. D.: The salience
of nonlinearities in the boreal winter response to ENSO, Clim. Dynam., 53,
4591–4610, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04805-1, 2019. a, b, c, d
Zhang, W., Wang, Z., Stuecker, M., Turner, A. G., Jin, F.-F., and Geng, X.:
Impact of ENSO longitudinal position on teleconnections to the NAO, Clim. Dynam., 52, 257–274, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4135-1, 2018. a, b, c, d
Short summary
We re-examine the uncertainty of ENSO teleconnection to the North Atlantic by considering the November–December and January–February months in the cold season, in addition to the conventional DJF months. This is motivated by previous studies reporting varying teleconnected atmospheric anomalies and the mechanisms concerned. Our results indicate an improved confidence in the patterns of the teleconnection. The finding may also have implications on research in predictability and climate impact.
We re-examine the uncertainty of ENSO teleconnection to the North Atlantic by considering the...