Articles | Volume 3, issue 1

Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 337–360, 2022

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-337-2022

Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 337–360, 2022

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-337-2022

Articles | Volume 3, issue 1

Research article

31 Mar 2022

Research article | 31 Mar 2022

Future changes in the extratropical storm tracks and cyclone intensity, wind speed, and structure

Matthew D. K. Priestley and Jennifer L. Catto

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-337-2022-supplement

Data sets

ERA5 hourly data on pressure levels from 1979 to present H. Hersbach, B. Bell, P. Berrisford, G. Biavati, A. Horányi, J. Muñoz Sabater, J. Nicolas, C. Peubey, R. Radu, I. Rozum, D. Schepers, A. Simmons, C. Soci, D. Dee, and J.-N. Thépaut https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.bd0915c6

Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6/) V. Eyring, S. Bony, G. A. Meehl, C. A. Senior, B. Stevens, R. J. Stouffer, and K. E. Taylor https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016

Model code and software

TRACK K. I. Hodges https://gitlab.act.reading.ac.uk/track/track

Short summary

We use the newest set of climate model experiments from CMIP6 to investigate changes to mid-latitude storm tracks and cyclones from global warming. The overall number of cyclones will decrease. However in winter there will be more of the most intense cyclones, and these intense cyclones are likely to be stronger. Cyclone wind speeds will increase in winter, and as a result the area of strongest wind speeds will increase. By 2100 the area of strong wind speeds may increase by over 30 %.