Articles | Volume 3, issue 1
Research article
31 Mar 2022
Research article |  | 31 Mar 2022

Future changes in the extratropical storm tracks and cyclone intensity, wind speed, and structure

Matthew D. K. Priestley and Jennifer L. Catto

Related authors

Return levels of extreme European windstorms, their dependency on the North Atlantic Oscillation, and potential future risks
Matthew D. K. Priestley, David B. Stephenson, Adam A. Scaife, Daniel Bannister, Christopher J. T. Allen, and David Wilkie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3845–3861,,, 2023
Short summary
A composite approach to produce reference datasets for extratropical cyclone tracks: application to Mediterranean cyclones
Emmanouil Flaounas, Leonardo Aragão, Lisa Bernini, Stavros Dafis, Benjamin Doiteau, Helena Flocas, Suzanne L. Gray, Alexia Karwat, John Kouroutzoglou, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Florian Pantillon, Claudia Pasquero, Platon Patlakas, María Ángeles Picornell, Federico Porcù, Matthew D. K. Priestley, Marco Reale, Malcolm J. Roberts, Hadas Saaroni, Dor Sandler, Enrico Scoccimarro, Michael Sprenger, and Baruch Ziv
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 639–661,,, 2023
Short summary
Performance-based sub-selection of CMIP6 models for impact assessments in Europe
Tamzin E. Palmer, Carol F. McSweeney, Ben B. B. Booth, Matthew D. K. Priestley, Paolo Davini, Lukas Brunner, Leonard Borchert, and Matthew B. Menary
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 457–483,,, 2023
Short summary
The role of serial European windstorm clustering for extreme seasonal losses as determined from multi-centennial simulations of high-resolution global climate model data
Matthew D. K. Priestley, Helen F. Dacre, Len C. Shaffrey, Kevin I. Hodges, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2991–3006,,, 2018
Short summary

Related subject area

Dynamical processes in midlatitudes
Analysing 23 years of warm-season derechos in France: a climatology and investigation of synoptic and environmental changes
Lucas Fery and Davide Faranda
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 439–461,,, 2024
Short summary
A Lagrangian framework for detecting and characterizing the descent of foehn from Alpine to local scales
Lukas Jansing, Lukas Papritz, and Michael Sprenger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 463–489,,, 2024
Short summary
The upstream–downstream connection of North Atlantic and Mediterranean cyclones in semi-idealized simulations
Alexander Scherrmann, Heini Wernli, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 419–438,,, 2024
Short summary
Understanding the vertical temperature structure of recent record-shattering heatwaves
Belinda Hotz, Lukas Papritz, and Matthias Röthlisberger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 323–343,,, 2024
Short summary
Persistent warm and cold spells in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics: regionalisation, synoptic-scale dynamics and temperature budget
Alexandre Tuel and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 263–292,,, 2024
Short summary

Cited articles

Barnes, E. A. and Polvani, L.: Response of the Midlatitude Jets, and of Their Variability, to Increased Greenhouse Gases in the CMIP5 Models, J. Climate, 26, 7117–7135,, 2013. a
Bengtsson, L., Hodges, K. I., and Roeckner, E.: Storm Tracks and Climate Change, J. Climate, 19, 3518–3543,, 2006. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h
Bengtsson, L., Hodges, K. I., and Keenlyside, N.: Will Extratropical Storms Intensify in a Warmer Climate?, J. Climate, 22, 2276–2301,, 2009. a, b, c, d, e, f
Binder, H., Boettcher, M., Joos, H., and Wernli, H.: The Role of Warm Conveyor Belts for the Intensification of Extratropical Cyclones in Northern Hemisphere Winter, J. Atmos. Sci., 73, 3997–4020,, 2016. a
Bracegirdle, T. J., Holmes, C. R., Hosking, J. S., Marshall, G. J., Osman, M., Patterson, M., and Rackow, T.: Improvements in Circumpolar Southern Hemisphere Extratropical Atmospheric Circulation in CMIP6 Compared to CMIP5, Earth Space Sci., 7, e2019EA001065,, 2020a. a
Short summary
We use the newest set of climate model experiments from CMIP6 to investigate changes to mid-latitude storm tracks and cyclones from global warming. The overall number of cyclones will decrease. However in winter there will be more of the most intense cyclones, and these intense cyclones are likely to be stronger. Cyclone wind speeds will increase in winter, and as a result the area of strongest wind speeds will increase. By 2100 the area of strong wind speeds may increase by over 30 %.