Articles | Volume 3, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-337-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-337-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Future changes in the extratropical storm tracks and cyclone intensity, wind speed, and structure
Matthew D. K. Priestley
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Jennifer L. Catto
College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Related authors
Matthew D. K. Priestley, David B. Stephenson, Adam A. Scaife, Daniel Bannister, Christopher J. T. Allen, and David Wilkie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-22, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-22, 2023
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This research presents a model for estimating extreme gusts associated with European windstorms. Using observed storm footprints we are able to calculate the return level of events at the 200-year return period. Largest gusts are found across NW Europe and these are larger when the North Atlantic Oscillation is positive. Using future climate states we find that return levels are likely to increase across NW Europe to levels that are unprecedented compared to historical storms.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Leonardo Aragão, Lisa Bernini, Stavros Dafis, Benjamin Doiteau, Helena Flocas, Suzanne L. Gray, Alexia Karwat, John Kouroutzoglou, Piero Lionello, Florian Pantillon, Claudia Pasquero, Platon Patlakas, Maria Angels Picornell, Federico Porcù, Matthew D. K. Priestley, Marco Reale, Malcolm Roberts, Hadas Saaroni, Dor Sandler, Enrico Scoccimarro, Michael Sprenger, and Baruch Ziv
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2022-63, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2022-63, 2023
Preprint under review for WCD
Short summary
Short summary
Cyclone detection and tracking methods (CDTMs) have different approaches in defining and tracking cyclone centers. This leads to disagreements on extratropical cyclone climatologies. We present a new approach that combines tracks from indiviudal CDTMs to produce new composite tracks. These new tracks are shown to correspond to physically meaningful systems with distinctive life stages.
Tamzin Emily Palmer, Carol F. McSweeney, Ben B. B. Booth, Matthew D. K. Priestley, Paolo Davini, Lukas Brunner, Leonard Borchert, and Matthew B. Menary
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2022-31, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2022-31, 2022
Preprint under review for ESD
Short summary
Short summary
We carry out an assessment of an ensemble of general climate models (CMIP6), based on the ability of the models to represent the key physical process that are important for representing the European climate. Filtering the models with the assessment leads to more of the models with less global warming being removed, and this shifts the lower part of the projected temperature range towards greater warming. This is in contrast to the affect of weighting the ensemble using global temperature trends.
Matthew D. K. Priestley, Helen F. Dacre, Len C. Shaffrey, Kevin I. Hodges, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2991–3006, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2991-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2991-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the role of the clustering of extratropical cyclones in driving wintertime wind losses across a large European region. To do this over 900 years of climate model data have been used and analysed. The main conclusion of this work is that cyclone clustering acts to increase wind-driven losses in the winter by 10 %–20 % when compared to the losses from a random series of cyclones, with this specifically being for the higher loss years.
Matthew D. K. Priestley, David B. Stephenson, Adam A. Scaife, Daniel Bannister, Christopher J. T. Allen, and David Wilkie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-22, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-22, 2023
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This research presents a model for estimating extreme gusts associated with European windstorms. Using observed storm footprints we are able to calculate the return level of events at the 200-year return period. Largest gusts are found across NW Europe and these are larger when the North Atlantic Oscillation is positive. Using future climate states we find that return levels are likely to increase across NW Europe to levels that are unprecedented compared to historical storms.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Leonardo Aragão, Lisa Bernini, Stavros Dafis, Benjamin Doiteau, Helena Flocas, Suzanne L. Gray, Alexia Karwat, John Kouroutzoglou, Piero Lionello, Florian Pantillon, Claudia Pasquero, Platon Patlakas, Maria Angels Picornell, Federico Porcù, Matthew D. K. Priestley, Marco Reale, Malcolm Roberts, Hadas Saaroni, Dor Sandler, Enrico Scoccimarro, Michael Sprenger, and Baruch Ziv
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2022-63, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2022-63, 2023
Preprint under review for WCD
Short summary
Short summary
Cyclone detection and tracking methods (CDTMs) have different approaches in defining and tracking cyclone centers. This leads to disagreements on extratropical cyclone climatologies. We present a new approach that combines tracks from indiviudal CDTMs to produce new composite tracks. These new tracks are shown to correspond to physically meaningful systems with distinctive life stages.
Victoria Anne Sinclair and Jennifer L. Catto
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2022-62, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2022-62, 2022
Preprint under review for WCD
Short summary
Short summary
We studied the relationship between the strength of mid-latitude cyclones and their precipitation, how this may change in the future, and whether it depends of the type of cyclone. The relationship between cyclone strength and precipitation increase in warmer climates and depends strongly on the type of cyclone. For some cyclone types there is no relation between cyclone strength and precipitation. For all cyclone types, precipitation increases with uniform warming and polar amplification.
Philip G. Sansom and Jennifer L. Catto
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-255, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-255, 2022
Preprint under review for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
Weather fronts bring a lot of rain and strong winds to many regions of the midlatitudes. We have developed an updated method of identifying these fronts in gridded data that can be used on new datasets with small grid spacing. The method can be easily applied to different datasets due to the use of open source software for its development and shows improvements over similar previous methods. We present an updated estimate of the average frequency of fronts over the past 40 years.
Tamzin Emily Palmer, Carol F. McSweeney, Ben B. B. Booth, Matthew D. K. Priestley, Paolo Davini, Lukas Brunner, Leonard Borchert, and Matthew B. Menary
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2022-31, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2022-31, 2022
Preprint under review for ESD
Short summary
Short summary
We carry out an assessment of an ensemble of general climate models (CMIP6), based on the ability of the models to represent the key physical process that are important for representing the European climate. Filtering the models with the assessment leads to more of the models with less global warming being removed, and this shifts the lower part of the projected temperature range towards greater warming. This is in contrast to the affect of weighting the ensemble using global temperature trends.
Matthew D. K. Priestley, Helen F. Dacre, Len C. Shaffrey, Kevin I. Hodges, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2991–3006, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2991-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2991-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the role of the clustering of extratropical cyclones in driving wintertime wind losses across a large European region. To do this over 900 years of climate model data have been used and analysed. The main conclusion of this work is that cyclone clustering acts to increase wind-driven losses in the winter by 10 %–20 % when compared to the losses from a random series of cyclones, with this specifically being for the higher loss years.
Related subject area
Dynamical processes in midlatitudes
Anomalous subtropical zonal winds drive decreases in southern Australian frontal rain
Origin of low-tropospheric potential vorticity in Mediterranean cyclones
Robust poleward jet shifts in idealised baroclinic-wave life-cycle experiments with noisy initial conditions
Revisiting the wintertime emergent constraint of the southern hemispheric midlatitude jet response to global warming
The global atmospheric energy transport analysed by a wavelength-based scale separation
European heatwaves in present and future climate simulations: a Lagrangian analysis
Signatures of Eurasian heat waves in global Rossby wave spectra
Impact of grid spacing, convective parameterization and cloud microphysics in ICON simulations of a warm conveyor belt
Similarity and variability of blocked weather-regime dynamics in the Atlantic-European region
Recurrent Rossby waves and south-eastern Australian heatwaves
Identification of high-wind features within extratropical cyclones using a probabilistic random forest – Part 1: Method and case studies
Classification of Alpine south foehn based on 5 years of kilometre-scale analysis data
Meridional-energy-transport extremes and the general circulation of Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes: dominant weather regimes and preferred zonal wavenumbers
Summertime Rossby waves in climate models: substantial biases in surface imprint associated with small biases in upper-level circulation
Diabatic processes modulating the vertical structure of the jet stream above the cold front of an extratropical cyclone: sensitivity to deep convection schemes
The role of cyclones and potential vorticity cutoffs for the occurrence of unusually long wet spells in Europe
Orographic resolution driving the improvements associated with horizontal resolution increase in the Northern Hemisphere winter mid-latitudes
Quantifying climate model representation of the wintertime Euro-Atlantic circulation using geopotential-jet regimes
Circumglobal Rossby wave patterns during boreal winter highlighted by space–time spectral analysis
How intense daily precipitation depends on temperature and the occurrence of specific weather systems – an investigation with ERA5 reanalyses in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere
Differentiating lightning in winter and summer with characteristics of the wind field and mass field
Atmospheric blocking and weather extremes over the Euro-Atlantic sector – a review
Is it north or west foehn? A Lagrangian analysis of Penetration and Interruption of Alpine Foehn intensive observation period 1 (PIANO IOP 1)
Large discrepancies in the representation of compound long-duration dry and hot spells over Europe in CMIP5
Past evolution of western Europe large-scale circulation and link to precipitation trend in the northern French Alps
How well is Rossby wave activity represented in the PRIMAVERA coupled simulations?
Mediterranean cyclones: current knowledge and open questions on dynamics, prediction, climatology and impacts
Automated detection and classification of synoptic-scale fronts from atmospheric data grids
Multi-day hail clusters and isolated hail days in Switzerland – large-scale flow conditions and precursors
Characteristics of extratropical cyclones and precursors to windstorms in northern Europe
Systematic assessment of the diabatic processes that modify low-level potential vorticity in extratropical cyclones
The impact of deep convection representation in a global atmospheric model on the warm conveyor belt and jet stream during NAWDEX IOP6
A global analysis of the dry-dynamic forcing during cyclone growth and propagation
Smoother versus sharper Gulf Stream and Kuroshio sea surface temperature fronts: effects on cyclones and climatology
Occurrence and transition probabilities of omega and high-over-low blocking in the Euro-Atlantic region
Oceanic moisture sources contributing to wintertime Euro-Atlantic blocking
Reconstructing winter climate anomalies in the Euro-Atlantic sector using circulation patterns
Linking air stagnation in Europe with the synoptic- to large-scale atmospheric circulation
Relative importance of tropopause structure and diabatic heating for baroclinic instability
On the occurrence of strong vertical wind shear in the tropopause region: a 10-year ERA5 northern hemispheric study
Large-scale drivers of the mistral wind: link to Rossby wave life cycles and seasonal variability
An unsupervised learning approach to identifying blocking events: the case of European summer
Potential-vorticity dynamics of troughs and ridges within Rossby wave packets during a 40-year reanalysis period
The three-dimensional life cycles of potential vorticity cutoffs: a global and selected regional climatologies in ERA-Interim (1979–2018)
Influence of ENSO on North American subseasonal surface air temperature variability
A process-based anatomy of Mediterranean cyclones: from baroclinic lows to tropical-like systems
Representation by two climate models of the dynamical and diabatic processes involved in the development of an explosively deepening cyclone during NAWDEX
A regime view of future atmospheric circulation changes in northern mid-latitudes
A global climatological perspective on the importance of Rossby wave breaking and intense moisture transport for extreme precipitation events
Observations and simulation of intense convection embedded in a warm conveyor belt – how ambient vertical wind shear determines the dynamical impact
Acacia S. Pepler and Irina Rudeva
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 175–188, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-175-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-175-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In recent decades, cold fronts have rained less often in southeast Australia, which contributes to decreasing cool season rainfall. The largest changes in front dynamics are found to the north of the area where rain changes. Wet fronts have strong westerly winds that reach much further north than dry fronts do, and these fronts are becoming less common, linked to weakening subtropical winds and changes in the Southern Hemisphere circulation.
Alexander Scherrmann, Heini Wernli, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 157–173, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-157-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the dynamical origin of the lower-atmospheric potential vorticity (PV; linked to the intensity of cyclones) in Mediterranean cyclones. We quantify the contribution of the cyclone and the environment by tracing PV backward in time and space and linking it to the track of the cyclone. We find that the lower-tropospheric PV is produced shortly before the cyclone's stage of highest intensity. We investigate the driving processes and use a global dataset and a process-resolving one.
Felix Jäger, Philip Rupp, and Thomas Birner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 49–60, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-49-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-49-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mid-latitude weather is dominated by the growth, breaking and decay of baroclinic waves and associated jet shifts. A way to study this process is via idealised life-cycle simulations, which are often classified as LC1 (anticyclonic breaking, poleward shift) or LC2 (cyclonic breaking, equatorward shift), depending on details of the initial state. We show that all systems exhibit predominantly anticyclonic character and poleward net shifts if multiple wave modes are allowed to grow simultaneously.
Philipp Breul, Paulo Ceppi, and Theodore G. Shepherd
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 39–47, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-39-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-39-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Accurately predicting the response of the midlatitude jet stream to climate change is very important, but models show a variety of possible scenarios. Previous work identified a relationship between climatological jet latitude and future jet shift in the southern hemispheric winter. We show that the relationship does not hold in separate sectors and propose that zonal asymmetries are the ultimate cause in the zonal mean. This questions the usefulness of the relationship.
Patrick Johannes Stoll, Rune Grand Graversen, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The atmosphere is in motion and hereby transporting warm, cold, moist, and dry air to different climate zones. In this study, we investigate how this transport of energy organises in different manners. Outside the tropics, atmospheric waves of sizes between 2000 and 8000 km, which we perceive as cyclones from the surface, transport most of the energy and moisture poleward. In the winter, large-scale weather situations become very important for transporting energy into the polar regions.
Lisa Schielicke and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1439–1459, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1439-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1439-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Projected future heatwaves in many European regions will be even warmer than the mean increase in summer temperature suggests. To identify the underlying thermodynamic and dynamic processes, we compare Lagrangian backward trajectories of airstreams associated with heatwaves in two time slices (1991–2000 and 2091–2100) in a large single-model ensemble (CEMS-LE). We find stronger future descent associated with adiabatic warming in some regions and increased future diabatic heating in most regions.
Iana Strigunova, Richard Blender, Frank Lunkeit, and Nedjeljka Žagar
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1399–1414, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1399-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1399-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We show that the Eurasian heat waves (HWs) have signatures in the global circulation. We present changes in the probability density functions (PDFs) of energy anomalies in the zonal-mean state and in the Rossby waves at different zonal scales in relation to the changes in intramonthly variability. The skewness of the PDF of planetary-scale Rossby waves is shown to increase during HWs, while their intramonthly variability is reduced, a process referred to as blocking.
Anubhav Choudhary and Aiko Voigt
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1199–1214, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1199-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1199-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The warm conveyor belt (WCB), which is a stream of coherently rising air parcels, is an important feature of extratropical cyclones. This work presents the impact of model grid spacing on simulation of cloud diabatic processes in the WCB of a North Atlantic cyclone. We find that the refinement of the model grid systematically enhances the dynamical properties and heat releasing processes within the WCB. However, this pattern does not have a strong impact on the strength of associated cyclones.
Franziska Teubler, Michael Riemer, Christopher Polster, Christian M. Grams, Seraphine Hauser, and Volkmar Wirth
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2022-56, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2022-56, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for WCD
Short summary
Short summary
Weather regimes govern an important part of the sub-seasonal variability of the mid-latitude circulation. The year-round dynamics of blocked regimes in the Atlantic European region are investigated in over 40 years of data. We show that the dynamics between the regimes are on average very similar at regime location. However, the average picture experiences some cancellation due to different pathways especially before onset of the regime and some processes maximize outside of that location.
S. Mubashshir Ali, Matthias Röthlisberger, Tess Parker, Kai Kornhuber, and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1139–1156, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1139-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1139-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Persistent weather can lead to extreme weather conditions. One such atmospheric flow pattern, termed recurrent Rossby wave packets (RRWPs), has been shown to increase persistent weather in the Northern Hemisphere. Here, we show that RRWPs are also an important feature in the Southern Hemisphere. We evaluate the role of RRWPs during south-eastern Australian heatwaves and find that they help to persist the heatwaves by forming upper-level high-pressure systems over south-eastern Australia.
Lea Eisenstein, Benedikt Schulz, Ghulam A. Qadir, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Peter Knippertz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1157–1182, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1157-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1157-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Mesoscale high-wind features within extratropical cyclones can cause immense damage. Here, we present RAMEFI, a novel approach to objectively identify the wind features based on a probabilistic random forest. RAMEFI enables a wide range of applications such as probabilistic predictions for the occurrence or a multi-decadal climatology of these features, which will be the focus of Part 2 of the study, with the goal of improving wind and, specifically, wind gust forecasts in the long run.
Lukas Jansing, Lukas Papritz, Bruno Dürr, Daniel Gerstgrasser, and Michael Sprenger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1113–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1113-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1113-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a 5-year climatology of three main foehn types and three deep-foehn subtypes. The main types differ in their large-scale and Alpine-scale weather conditions and the subtypes in terms of the amount and extent of precipitation on the Alpine south side. The different types of foehn are found to strongly affect the local meteorological conditions at Altdorf. The study concludes by setting the new classification into a historic context.
Valerio Lembo, Federico Fabiano, Vera Melinda Galfi, Rune Grand Graversen, Valerio Lucarini, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1037–1062, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1037-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1037-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Eddies in mid-latitudes characterize the exchange of heat between the tropics and the poles. This exchange is largely uneven, with a few extreme events bearing most of the heat transported across latitudes in a season. It is thus important to understand what the dynamical mechanisms are behind these events. Here, we identify recurrent weather regime patterns associated with extreme transports, and we identify scales of mid-latitudinal eddies that are mostly responsible for the transport.
Fei Luo, Frank Selten, Kathrin Wehrli, Kai Kornhuber, Philippe Le Sager, Wilhelm May, Thomas Reerink, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Hideo Shiogama, Daisuke Tokuda, Hyungjun Kim, and Dim Coumou
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 905–935, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-905-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-905-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Recent studies have identified the weather systems in observational data, where wave patterns with high-magnitude values that circle around the whole globe in either wavenumber 5 or wavenumber 7 are responsible for the extreme events. In conclusion, we find that the climate models are able to reproduce the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns as well as their associated surface variables such as temperature, precipitation, and sea level pressure.
Meryl Wimmer, Gwendal Rivière, Philippe Arbogast, Jean-Marcel Piriou, Julien Delanoë, Carole Labadie, Quitterie Cazenave, and Jacques Pelon
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 863–882, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-863-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-863-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of deep convection representation on the jet stream above the cold front of an extratropical cyclone is investigated in the global numerical weather prediction model ARPEGE. Two simulations using different deep convection schemes are compared with (re)analysis datasets and NAWDEX airborne observations. A deeper jet stream is observed with the less active scheme. The diabatic origin of this difference is interpreted by backward Lagrangian trajectories and potential vorticity budgets.
Matthias Röthlisberger, Barbara Scherrer, Andries Jan de Vries, and Raphael Portmann
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 733–754, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-733-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-733-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We examine the palette of synoptic storylines accompanying unusually long wet spells in Europe. Thereby, we identify a hitherto not documented mechanism for generating long wet spells which involves recurrent Rossby wave breaking and subsequent cutoff replenishment. Understanding the synoptic processes behind long wet spells is relevant in light of projected changes in wet spell characteristics as it is a prerequisite for evaluating climate models with regard to such events.
Paolo Davini, Federico Fabiano, and Irina Sandu
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 535–553, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-535-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-535-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In climate models, improvements obtained in the winter mid-latitude circulation following horizontal resolution increase are mainly caused by the more detailed representation of the mean orography. A high-resolution climate model with low-resolution orography might underperform compared to a low-resolution model with low-resolution orography. The absence of proper model tuning at high resolution is considered the potential reason behind such lack of improvements.
Joshua Dorrington, Kristian Strommen, and Federico Fabiano
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 505–533, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-505-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-505-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate how well current state-of-the-art climate models reproduce the wintertime weather of the North Atlantic and western Europe by studying how well different "regimes" of weather are captured. Historically, models have struggled to capture these regimes, making it hard to predict future changes in wintertime extreme weather. We show models can capture regimes if the right method is used, but they show biases, partially as a result of biases in jet speed and eddy strength.
Jacopo Riboldi, Efi Rousi, Fabio D'Andrea, Gwendal Rivière, and François Lott
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 449–469, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-449-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-449-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A revisited space and time spectral decomposition allows us to determine which harmonics dominate the upper-tropospheric flow evolution over a given time period as well as their propagation. This approach is used to identify Rossby wave patterns with a circumglobal extent, affecting weather evolution over different Northern Hemisphere regions. The results cast light on the processes originating and supporting these wave patterns, advocating at the same time for the usefulness of the technique.
Philipp Zschenderlein and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 391–411, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-391-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-391-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation and temperature are two of the most important variables describing our weather and climate. The relationship between these variables has been studied extensively; however, the role of specific weather systems in shaping this relationship has not been analysed yet. We therefore analyse whether intense precipitation occurs on warmer or on colder days and identify the relevant weather systems. In general, weather systems strongly influence this relationship, especially in winter.
Deborah Morgenstern, Isabell Stucke, Thorsten Simon, Georg J. Mayr, and Achim Zeileis
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 361–375, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-361-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-361-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Wintertime lightning in central Europe is rare but has a large damage potential for tall structures such as wind turbines. We use a data-driven approach to explain why it even occurs when the meteorological processes causing thunderstorms in summer are absent. In summer, with strong solar input, thunderclouds have a large vertical extent, whereas in winter, thunderclouds are shallower in the vertical but tilted and elongated in the horizontal by strong winds that increase with altitude.
Lisa-Ann Kautz, Olivia Martius, Stephan Pfahl, Joaquim G. Pinto, Alexandre M. Ramos, Pedro M. Sousa, and Tim Woollings
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 305–336, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-305-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-305-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric blocking is associated with stationary, self-sustaining and long-lasting high-pressure systems. They can cause or at least influence surface weather extremes, such as heat waves, cold spells, heavy precipitation events, droughts or wind extremes. The location of the blocking determines where and what type of extreme event will occur. These relationships are also important for weather prediction and may change due to global warming.
Manuel Saigger and Alexander Gohm
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 279–303, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-279-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-279-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this work a special form of a foehn wind in an Alpine valley with a large-scale northwesterly flow is investigated. The study clarifies the origin of the air mass and the mechanisms by which this air enters the valley. A trajectory analysis shows that the location where the main airstream passes the crest line is more suitable for a foehn classification than the local or large-scale wind direction. Mountain waves and a lee rotor were crucial for importing air into the valley.
Colin Manning, Emanuele Bevacqua, Martin Widmann, Douglas Maraun, and Anne F. Van Loon
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2022-15, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2022-15, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for WCD
Short summary
Short summary
This article shows that climate models largely differ in their representation of persistent dry spells that co-occur with extremely high temperatures. Some models simulate dry spells that are too short and too cool compared to observations, while others simulate dry spells that are too long and too hot. This information is important when interpreting the likelihood of such events in a warmer climate so that we can assess the plausibility of their future projections.
Antoine Blanc, Juliette Blanchet, and Jean-Dominique Creutin
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 231–250, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-231-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-231-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation variability and extremes in the northern French Alps are governed by the atmospheric circulation over western Europe. In this work, we study the past evolution of western Europe large-scale circulation using atmospheric descriptors. We show some discrepancies in the trends obtained from different reanalyses before 1950. After 1950, we find trends in Mediterranean circulations that appear to be linked with trends in seasonal and extreme precipitation in the northern French Alps.
Paolo Ghinassi, Federico Fabiano, and Susanna Corti
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 209–230, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-209-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-209-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this work we examine the ability of global climate models in representing the atmospheric circulation in the upper troposphere, focusing on the eventual benefits of an increased horizontal resolution. Our results confirm that a higher horizontal resolution has a positive impact, especially in those models in which the resolution is increased in both the atmosphere and the ocean, whereas when the resolution is increased only in the atmosphere no substantial improvements are found.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Silvio Davolio, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Florian Pantillon, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Miguel Angel Gaertner, Maria Hatzaki, Victor Homar, Samira Khodayar, Gerasimos Korres, Vassiliki Kotroni, Jonilda Kushta, Marco Reale, and Didier Ricard
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 173–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-173-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-173-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This is a collective effort to describe the state of the art in Mediterranean cyclone dynamics, climatology, prediction (weather and climate scales) and impacts. More than that, the paper focuses on the future directions of research that would advance the broader field of Mediterranean cyclones as a whole. Thereby, we propose interdisciplinary cooperation and additional modelling and forecasting strategies, and we highlight the need for new impact-oriented approaches to climate prediction.
Stefan Niebler, Annette Miltenberger, Bertil Schmidt, and Peter Spichtinger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 113–137, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-113-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-113-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We use machine learning to create a network that detects and classifies four types of synoptic-scale weather fronts from ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis data. We present an application of our method, showing its use case in a scientific context. Additionally, our results show that multiple sources of training data are necessary to perform well on different regions, implying differences within those regions. Qualitative evaluation shows that the results are physically plausible.
Hélène Barras, Olivia Martius, Luca Nisi, Katharina Schroeer, Alessandro Hering, and Urs Germann
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1167–1185, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1167-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1167-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In Switzerland hail may occur several days in a row. Such multi-day hail events may cause significant damage, and understanding and forecasting these events is important. Using reanalysis data we show that weather systems over Europe move slower before and during multi-day hail events compared to single hail days. Surface temperatures are typically warmer and the air more humid over Switzerland and winds are slower on multi-day hail clusters. These results may be used for hail forecasting.
Terhi K. Laurila, Hilppa Gregow, Joona Cornér, and Victoria A. Sinclair
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1111–1130, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1111-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1111-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We create a climatology of mid-latitude cyclones and windstorms in northern Europe and investigate how sensitive the minimum pressure and maximum gust of windstorms are to four precursors. Windstorms are more common in the cold season than the warm season, whereas the number of mid-latitude cyclones has no annual cycle. The low-level temperature gradient has the strongest impact of all considered precursors on the intensity of windstorms in terms of both the minimum pressure and maximum gust.
Roman Attinger, Elisa Spreitzer, Maxi Boettcher, Heini Wernli, and Hanna Joos
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1073–1091, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1073-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1073-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Diabatic processes affect the development of extratropical cyclones. This work provides a systematic assessment of the diabatic processes that modify potential vorticity (PV) in model simulations. PV is primarily produced by condensation and convection. Given favorable environmental conditions, long-wave radiative cooling and turbulence become the primary process at the cold and warm fronts, respectively. Turbulence and long-wave radiative heating produce negative PV anomalies at the fronts.
Gwendal Rivière, Meryl Wimmer, Philippe Arbogast, Jean-Marcel Piriou, Julien Delanoë, Carole Labadie, Quitterie Cazenave, and Jacques Pelon
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1011–1031, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1011-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1011-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Inacurracies in representing processes occurring at spatial scales smaller than the grid scales of the weather forecast models are important sources of forecast errors. This is the case of deep convection representation in models with 10 km grid spacing. We performed simulations of a real extratropical cyclone using a model with different representations of deep convection. These forecasts lead to different behaviors in the ascending air masses of the cyclone and the jet stream aloft.
Philippe Besson, Luise J. Fischer, Sebastian Schemm, and Michael Sprenger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 991–1009, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-991-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-991-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The strongest cyclone intensification is associated with a strong dry-dynamical forcing. Moreover, strong forcing and strong intensification correspond to a tendency for poleward cyclone propagation, which occurs in distinct regions in the Northern Hemisphere. There is a clear spatial pattern in the occurrence of certain forcing combinations. This implies a fundamental relationship between dry-dynamical processes and the intensification as well as the propagation of extratropical cyclones.
Leonidas Tsopouridis, Thomas Spengler, and Clemens Spensberger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 953–970, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-953-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-953-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Comparing simulations with realistic and smoothed SSTs, we find that the intensification of individual cyclones in the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio regions is only marginally affected by reducing the SST gradient. In contrast, we observe a reduced cyclone activity and a shift in storm tracks. Considering differences of the variables occurring within/outside of a radius of any cyclone, we find cyclones to play only a secondary role in explaining the mean states differences among the SST experiments.
Carola Detring, Annette Müller, Lisa Schielicke, Peter Névir, and Henning W. Rust
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 927–952, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-927-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-927-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Stationary, long-lasting blocked weather patterns can lead to extreme conditions. Within this study the temporal evolution of the occurrence probability is analyzed, and the onset, decay and transition probabilities of blocking within the past 30 years are modeled. Using Markov models combined with logistic regression, we found large changes in summer, where the probability of transitions to so-called Omega blocks increases strongly, while the unblocked state becomes less probable.
Ayako Yamamoto, Masami Nonaka, Patrick Martineau, Akira Yamazaki, Young-Oh Kwon, Hisashi Nakamura, and Bunmei Taguchi
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 819–840, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-819-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-819-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
While the key role of moist processes in blocking has recently been highlighted, their moisture sources remain unknown. Here, we investigate moisture sources for wintertime Euro-Atlantic blocks using a Lagrangian method. We show that the Gulf Stream, Kuroshio, and their extensions, along with the northeast of Hawaii, act as the primary moisture sources and springboards for particle ascent. We find that the evolution of the particle properties is sensitive to the moisture sources.
Erica Madonna, David S. Battisti, Camille Li, and Rachel H. White
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 777–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-777-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-777-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The amount of precipitation over Europe varies substantially from year to year, with impacts on crop yields and energy production. In this study, we show that it is possible to infer much of the winter precipitation and temperature signal over Europe by knowing only the frequency of occurrence of certain atmospheric circulation patterns. The results highlight the importance of (daily) weather for understanding and interpreting seasonal signals.
Jacob W. Maddison, Marta Abalos, David Barriopedro, Ricardo García-Herrera, Jose M. Garrido-Perez, and Carlos Ordóñez
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 675–694, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-675-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-675-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Air stagnation occurs when an air mass becomes settled over a region and precipitation is suppressed. Pollutant levels can rise during stagnation. The synoptic- to large-scale influence on European air stagnation and pollution is explored here. We show that around 60 % of the monthly variability in air stagnation and pollutants can be explained by dynamical indices describing the atmospheric circulation. The weather systems most related to stagnation are different for regions across Europe.
Kristine Flacké Haualand and Thomas Spengler
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 695–712, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-695-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-695-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Given the recent focus on the influence of upper tropospheric structure in wind and temperature on midlatitude weather, we use an idealised model to investigate how structural modifications impact cyclone development. We find that cyclone intensification is less sensitive to these modifications than to changes in the amount of cloud condensation, suggesting that an accurate representation of the upper-level troposphere is less important for midlatitude weather than previously anticipated.
Thorsten Kaluza, Daniel Kunkel, and Peter Hoor
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 631–651, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-631-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-631-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present a 10-year analysis on the occurrence of strong wind shear in the Northern Hemisphere, focusing on the region around the transport barrier that separates the first two layers of the atmosphere. The major result of our analysis is that strong wind shear above a certain threshold occurs frequently and nearly exclusively in this region, which, as an indicator for turbulent mixing, might have major implications concerning the separation efficiency of the transport barrier.
Yonatan Givon, Douglas Keller Jr., Vered Silverman, Romain Pennel, Philippe Drobinski, and Shira Raveh-Rubin
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 609–630, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-609-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-609-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Mistral wind is a renowned phenomenon in the Mediterranean, yet its large-scale controlling mechanisms have not been systematically mapped. Here, using a new mistral database for 1981–2016, the upper-tropospheric flow patterns are classified by a self-organizing map algorithm, resulting in 16 distinct patterns related to Rossby wave life cycles. Each pattern has unique surface impact, having implications to understanding mistral predictability, air–sea interaction and their future projections.
Carl Thomas, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Gerald Lim, Joanna Haigh, and Peer Nowack
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 581–608, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-581-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-581-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric blocking events are complex large-scale weather patterns which block the path of the jet stream. They are associated with heat waves in summer and cold snaps in winter. Blocking is poorly understood, and the effect of climate change is not clear. Here, we present a new method to study blocking using unsupervised machine learning. We show that this method performs better than previous methods used. These results show the potential for unsupervised learning in atmospheric science.
Franziska Teubler and Michael Riemer
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 535–559, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-535-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-535-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Rossby wave packets impact all aspects of midlatitude weather systems, from their climatological distribution to predictability. Case studies suggest an important role of latent heat release in clouds. We investigate thousands of wave packets with a novel diagnostic. We demonstrate that, on average, the impact of moist processes is substantially different between troughs and ridges and that dry conceptual models of wave packet dynamics should be extended.
Raphael Portmann, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 507–534, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-507-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-507-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We explore the three-dimensional life cycle of cyclonic structures
(so-called PV cutoffs) near the tropopause. PV cutoffs are frequent weather systems in the extratropics that lead to high-impact weather. However, many unknowns exist regarding their evolution. We present a new method to track PV cutoffs as 3D objects in reanalysis data by following air parcels along the flow. We study the climatological life cycles of PV cutoffs in detail and propose a classification into three types.
Patrick Martineau, Hisashi Nakamura, and Yu Kosaka
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 395–412, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-395-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-395-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
To better understand the factors that impact the weather in North America, this study explores the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on wintertime surface air temperature variability using reanalysis data. Results show that La Niña enhances subseasonal variability over western North America by amplifying the baroclinic conversion of energy from the winter-mean circulation to subseasonal eddies. Changes in the structural properties of eddies are crucial for this amplification.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Suzanne L. Gray, and Franziska Teubler
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 255–279, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-255-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-255-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we quantify the relative contribution of different atmospheric processes to the development of 100 intense Mediterranean cyclones and show that both upper tropospheric systems and diabatic processes contribute to cyclone development. However, these contributions are complex and present high variability among the cases. For this reason, we analyse several exemplary cases in more detail, including 10 systems that have been identified in the past as tropical-like cyclones.
David L. A. Flack, Gwendal Rivière, Ionela Musat, Romain Roehrig, Sandrine Bony, Julien Delanoë, Quitterie Cazenave, and Jacques Pelon
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 233–253, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-233-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-233-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The representation of an extratropical cyclone in simulations of two climate models is studied by comparing them to observations of the international field campaign NAWDEX. We show that the current resolution used to run climate model projections (more than 100 km) is not enough to represent the life cycle accurately, but the use of 50 km resolution is good enough. Despite these encouraging results, cloud properties (partitioning liquid and solid) are found to be far from the observations.
Federico Fabiano, Virna L. Meccia, Paolo Davini, Paolo Ghinassi, and Susanna Corti
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 163–180, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-163-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-163-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Global warming not only affects the mean state of the climate (i.e. a warmer world) but also its variability. Here we analyze a set of future climate scenarios and show how some configurations of the wintertime atmospheric flow will become more frequent and persistent under continued greenhouse forcing. For example, over Europe, models predict an increase in the NAO+ regime which drives intense precipitation in northern Europe and the British Isles and dry conditions over the Mediterranean.
Andries Jan de Vries
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 129–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-129-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-129-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy rainfall can cause dramatic societal impacts. This paper presents the first global study on the role of Rossby wave breaking and intense moisture transport for extreme precipitation events. Several catastrophic flood events demonstrate the importance of these two processes, complemented by a detailed climatological analysis. These findings present a new perspective on the meteorology of extreme precipitation events with implications for their prediction and studies on their future changes.
Annika Oertel, Michael Sprenger, Hanna Joos, Maxi Boettcher, Heike Konow, Martin Hagen, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 89–110, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-89-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-89-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Convection embedded in the stratiform cloud band of strongly ascending airstreams in extratropical cyclones (so-called warm conveyor belts) can influence not only surface precipitation but also the
upper-tropospheric potential vorticity (PV) and waveguide. The comparison of intense vs. moderate embedded convection shows that its strength alone is not a reliable measure for upper-tropospheric PV modification. Instead, characteristics of the ambient flow co-determine its dynamical significance.
Cited articles
Barnes, E. A. and Polvani, L.: Response of the Midlatitude Jets, and of Their
Variability, to Increased Greenhouse Gases in the CMIP5 Models, J.
Climate, 26, 7117–7135, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00536.1, 2013. a
Binder, H., Boettcher, M., Joos, H., and Wernli, H.: The Role of Warm Conveyor
Belts for the Intensification of Extratropical Cyclones in Northern
Hemisphere Winter, J. Atmos. Sci., 73, 3997–4020,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0302.1, 2016. a
Bracegirdle, T. J., Holmes, C. R., Hosking, J. S., Marshall, G. J., Osman, M.,
Patterson, M., and Rackow, T.: Improvements in Circumpolar Southern
Hemisphere Extratropical Atmospheric Circulation in CMIP6 Compared to CMIP5,
Earth Space Sci., 7, e2019EA001065,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EA001065, 2020a. a
Bracegirdle, T. J., Krinner, G., Tonelli, M., Haumann, F. A., Naughten, K. A.,
Rackow, T., Roach, L. A., and Wainer, I.: Twenty first century changes in
Antarctic and Southern Ocean surface climate in CMIP6, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 21, e984, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.984, 2020b. a
Brown, J. R., Lengaigne, M., Lintner, B. R., Widlansky, M. J., van der Wiel,
K., Dutheil, C., Linsley, B. K., Matthews, A. J., and Renwick, J.: South
Pacific Convergence Zone dynamics, variability and impacts in a changing
climate, Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 1, 530–543,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-0078-2, 2020. a
Browning, K. A.: The sting at the end of the tail: Damaging winds associated
with extratropical cyclones, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol.
Soc., 130, 375–399, https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.02.143, 2004. a
Büeler, D. and Pfahl, S.: Potential Vorticity Diagnostics to Quantify
Effects of Latent Heating in Extratropical Cyclones. Part II: Application to
Idealized Climate Change Simulations, J. Atmos. Sci.,
76, 1885–1902, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-18-0342.1, 2019. a, b
Butler, A. H., Thompson, D. W. J., and Heikes, R.: The Steady-State
Atmospheric Circulation Response to Climate Change–like Thermal Forcings in
a Simple General Circulation Model, J. Climate, 23, 3474–3496,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3228.1, 2010. a
Catto, J. L., Shaffrey, L. C., and Hodges, K. I.: Northern Hemisphere
Extratropical Cyclones in a Warming Climate in the HiGEM High-Resolution
Climate Model, J. Climate, 24, 5336–5352,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4181.1, 2011. a
Catto, J. L., Ackerley, D., Booth, J. F., Champion, A. J., Colle, B. A., Pfahl,
S., Pinto, J. G., Quinting, J. F., and Seiler, C.: The Future of Midlatitude
Cyclones, Curr. Clim. Change Rep., 5, 407–420,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-019-00149-4, 2019. a, b, c, d
Ceppi, P. and Hartmann, D. L.: On the Speed of the Eddy-Driven Jet and the
Width of the Hadley Cell in the Southern Hemisphere, J. Climate, 26,
3450–3465, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00414.1, 2013. a
Champion, A. J., Hodges, K. I., Bengtsson, L. O., Keenlyside, N. S., and Esch,
M.: Impact of increasing resolution and a warmer climate on extreme weather
from Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones, Tellus A, 63, 893–906,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2011.00538.x, 2011. a, b
Chang, E. K.-M.: CMIP5 Projected Change in Northern Hemisphere Winter Cyclones
with Associated Extreme Winds, J. Climate, 31, 6527–6542,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0899.1, 2018. a
Chang, E. K. M., Guo, Y., Xia, X., and Zheng, M.: Storm-Track Activity in IPCC
AR4/CMIP3 Model Simulations, J. Climate, 26, 246–260,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00707.1, 2013. a, b, c
Christensen, J., Krishna Kumar, K., Aldrian, E., An, S.-I., Cavalcanti, I.,
de Castro, M., Dong, W., Goswami, P., Hall, A., Kanyanga, J., Kitoh, A.,
Kossin, J., Lau, N.-C., Renwick, J., Stephenson, D., Xie, S.-P., and Zhou,
T.: Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future Regional Climate
Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1217–1308,
https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.028, 2013. a, b, c
Colle, B. A., Zhang, Z., Lombardo, K. A., Chang, E., Liu, P., and Zhang, M.:
Historical Evaluation and Future Prediction of Eastern North American and
Western Atlantic Extratropical Cyclones in the CMIP5 Models during the Cool
Season, J. Climate, 26, 6882–6903, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00498.1,
2013. a, b, c, d, e
Coumou, D., Lehmann, J., and Beckmann, J.: The weakening summer circulation in
the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, Science, 348, 324–327,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1261768, 2015. a
Dacre, H. F., Hawcroft, M. K., Stringer, M. A., and Hodges, K. I.: An
Extratropical Cyclone Atlas: A Tool for Illustrating Cyclone Structure and
Evolution Characteristics, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc.,
93, 1497–1502, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00164.1, 2012. a, b
Davini, P. and D'Andrea, F.: From CMIP3 to CMIP6: Northern Hemisphere
Atmospheric Blocking Simulation in Present and Future Climate, J.
Climate, 33, 10021–10038, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0862.1, 2020. a
Deng, K., Azorin-Molina, C., Yang, S., Hu, C., Zhang, G., Minola, L., and Chen,
D.: Changes of Southern Hemisphere westerlies in the future warming
climate, Atmos. Res., 270, 106040,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106040, 2022. a
Dolores-Tesillos, E., Teubler, F., and Pfahl, S.: Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LENS. Part I: cyclone intensity, PV anomalies and horizontal wind speed, Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-73, in review, 2021. a, b, c, d
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016 (data available at: https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6/, last access: 25 March 2022). a, b, c, d
Fan, X., Duan, Q., Shen, C., Wu, Y., and Xing, C.: Global surface air
temperatures in CMIP6: historical performance and future changes,
Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 104056, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abb051,
2020. a
Geng, Q. and Sugi, M.: Possible Change of Extratropical Cyclone Activity due
to Enhanced Greenhouse Gases and Sulfate Aerosols – Study with a
High-Resolution AGCM, J. Climate, 16, 2262–2274,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)16<2262:PCOECA>2.0.CO;2, 2003. a, b, c, d
Gervais, M., Shaman, J., and Kushnir, Y.: Mechanisms Governing the Development
of the North Atlantic Warming Hole in the CESM-LE Future Climate
Simulations, J. Climate, 31, 5927–5946,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0635.1, 2018. a
Gervais, M., Shaman, J., and Kushnir, Y.: Impacts of the North Atlantic
Warming Hole in Future Climate Projections: Mean Atmospheric Circulation and
the North Atlantic Jet, J. Climate, 32, 2673–2689,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0647.1, 2019. a
Goyal, R., Sen Gupta, A., Jucker, M., and England, M. H.: Historical and
Projected Changes in the Southern Hemisphere Surface Westerlies, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2020GL090849, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090849, 2021. a, b
Grieger, J., Leckebusch, G., Donat, M., Schuster, M., and Ulbrich, U.:
Southern Hemisphere winter cyclone activity under recent and future climate
conditions in multi-model AOGCM simulations, Int. J. Climatol., 34, 3400–3416, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3917, 2014. a
Grist, J. P., Josey, S. A., Sinha, B., Catto, J. L., Roberts, M. J., and
Coward, A. C.: Future Evolution of an Eddy Rich Ocean Associated with
Enhanced East Atlantic Storminess in a Coupled Model Projection, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2021GL092719, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL092719, 2021. a
Grose, M. R., Narsey, S., Delage, F. P., Dowdy, A. J., Bador, M., Boschat, G.,
Chung, C., Kajtar, J. B., Rauniyar, S., Freund, M. B., Lyu, K., Rashid, H.,
Zhang, X., Wales, S., Trenham, C., Holbrook, N. J., Cowan, T., Alexander, L.,
Arblaster, J. M., and Power, S.: Insights From CMIP6 for Australia's Future
Climate, Earth's Future, 8, e2019EF001469, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001469,
2020. a
Harvey, B. J., Shaffrey, L. C., and Woollings, T. J.: Deconstructing the
climate change response of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime storm tracks,
Clim. Dynam., 45, 2847–2860, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2510-8, 2015. a
Harvey, B. J., Cook, P., Shaffrey, L. C., and Schiemann, R.: The Response of
the Northern Hemisphere Storm Tracks and Jet Streams to Climate Change in the
CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 Climate Models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 125, e2020JD032701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD032701, 2020. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h
Hawcroft, M. K., Shaffrey, L. C., Hodges, K. I., and Dacre, H. F.: How much
Northern Hemisphere precipitation is associated with extratropical
cyclones?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L24809, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053866,
2012. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Biavati, G., Horányi, A., Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Dee, D., and Thépaut, J-N.: ERA5 hourly data on pressure levels from 1979 to present, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.bd0915c6, 2018. a
Hodges, K. I.: A General Method for Tracking Analysis and Its Application to
Meteorological Data, Mon. Weather Rev., 122, 2573–2586,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1994)122<2573:AGMFTA>2.0.CO;2, 1994. a, b
Hodges, K. I.: Feature Tracking on the Unit Sphere, Mon. Weather Rev.,
123, 3458–3465, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1995)123<3458:FTOTUS>2.0.CO;2, 1995. a, b
Hodges, K. I.: Adaptive Constraints for Feature Tracking, Mon. Weather
Rev., 127, 1362–1373,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1999)127<1362:ACFFT>2.0.CO;2, 1999. a, b
Hodges, K. I.: TRACK, GitLab [code], https://gitlab.act.reading.ac.uk/track/track, last access: 25 March 2022. a
Hoskins, B. J. and Hodges, K. I.: New Perspectives on the Northern Hemisphere
Winter Storm Tracks, J. Atmos. Sci., 59, 1041–1061,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2002)059<1041:NPOTNH>2.0.CO;2, 2002. a
Kodama, C., Stevens, B., Mauritsen, T., Seiki, T., and Satoh, M.: A New
Perspective for Future Precipitation Change from Intense Extratropical
Cyclones, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 12435–12444,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084001, 2019. a, b
König, W., Sausen, R., and Sielmann, F.: Objective Identification of
Cyclones in GCM Simulations, J. Climate, 6, 2217–2231,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1993)006<2217:OIOCIG>2.0.CO;2, 1993. a
Kornhuber, K. and Tamarin-Brodsky, T.: Future Changes in Northern Hemisphere
Summer Weather Persistence Linked to Projected Arctic Warming, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 48, e2020GL091603,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091603, 2021. a
Lambert, S. J. and Fyfe, J. C.: Changes in winter cyclone frequencies and
strengths simulated in enhanced greenhouse warming experiments: results from
the models participating in the IPCC diagnostic exercise, Clim. Dynam.,
26, 713–728, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0110-3, 2006. a
Leckebusch, G. C., Ulbrich, U., Fröhlich, L., and Pinto, J. G.: Property loss
potentials for European midlatitude storms in a changing climate, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 34, L24809, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027663, 2007. a
Lehmann, J., Coumou, D., Frieler, K., Eliseev, A. V., and Levermann, A.:
Future changes in extratropical storm tracks and baroclinicity under climate
change, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 084002,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/8/084002, 2014. a, b, c, d
Lim, E.-P. and Simmonds, I.: Effect of tropospheric temperature change on the
zonal mean circulation and SH winter extratropical cyclones, Clim.
Dynam., 33, 19–32, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0444-0, 2009. a
Mizuta, R.: Intensification of extratropical cyclones associated with the polar
jet change in the CMIP5 global warming projections, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 39, L19707, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053032, 2012. a, b
O'Gorman, P. A.: Understanding the varied response of the
extratropical storm tracks to climate change, P. Natl.
Acad. Sci. USA, 107, 19176–19180, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1011547107,
2010. a, b
O'Gorman, P. A., Merlis, T. M., and Singh, M. S.: Increase in the skewness of
extratropical vertical velocities with climate warming: fully nonlinear
simulations versus moist baroclinic instability, Q. J.
Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 144, 208–217, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3195, 2018. a
O’Neill, B. C., Kriegler, E., Riahi, K., Ebi, K. L., Hallegatte, S., Carter,
T. R., Mathur, R., and van Vuuren, D. P.: A new scenario framework for
climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways,
Clim. Change, 122, 387–400, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0905-2, 2014. a
O'Neill, B. C., Tebaldi, C., van Vuuren, D. P., Eyring, V., Friedlingstein, P., Hurtt, G., Knutti, R., Kriegler, E., Lamarque, J.-F., Lowe, J., Meehl, G. A., Moss, R., Riahi, K., and Sanderson, B. M.: The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3461–3482, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016, 2016. a, b, c, d, e
Oudar, T., Cattiaux, J., and Douville, H.: Drivers of the Northern
Extratropical Eddy-Driven Jet Change in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL086695, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086695, 2020. a, b, c
Pfahl, S., O'Gorman, P. A., and Singh, M. S.: Extratropical Cyclones in
Idealized Simulations of Changed Climates, J. Climate, 28,
9373–9392, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00816.1, 2015. a, b, c, d
Pinto, J. G., Fröhlich, E. L., Leckebusch, G. C., and Ulbrich, U.: Changing European storm loss potentials under modified climate conditions according to ensemble simulations of the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 7, 165–175, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-7-165-2007, 2007. a
Priestley, M. D. K., Ackerley, D., Catto, J. L., Hodges, K. I., McDonald,
R. E., and Lee, R. W.: An Overview of the Extratropical Storm Tracks in
CMIP6 Historical Simulations, J. Climate, 33, 6315–6343,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0928.1, 2020. a, b
Priestley, M. D. K., Ackerley, D., Catto, J. L., and Hodges, K. I.: Drivers of
biases in the CMIP6 extratropical storm tracks. Part 2: Southern Hemisphere,
J. Climate, in review, 2022b. a
Schwierz, C., Köllner-Heck, P., Zenklusen Mutter, E., Bresch, D. N.,
Vidale, P.-L., Wild, M., and Schär, C.: Modelling European winter wind
storm losses in current and future climate, Clim. Change, 101, 485–514,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9712-1, 2010. a
Shaw, T. A.: Mechanisms of Future Predicted Changes in the Zonal Mean
Mid-Latitude Circulation, Curr. Clim. Change Rep., 5, 345–357,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-019-00145-8, 2019. a, b
Shaw, T. A., Baldwin, M., Barnes, E. A., Caballero, R., Garfinkel, C. I.,
Hwang, Y.-T., Li, C., O'Gorman, P. A., Rivière, G., Simpson, I. R., and
Voigt, A.: Storm track processes and the opposing influences of climate
change, Nat. Geosci., 9, 656–664, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2783, 2016. a
Tamarin, T. and Kaspi, Y.: Mechanisms Controlling the Downstream Poleward
Deflection of Midlatitude Storm Tracks, J. Atmos. Sci.,
74, 553–572, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-16-0122.1, 2017. a
Tamarin-Brodsky, T. and Hadas, O.: The Asymmetry of Vertical Velocity in
Current and Future Climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 374–382,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080363, 2019. a
Tamarin-Brodsky, T. and Kaspi, Y.: Enhanced poleward propagation of storms
under climate change, Nat. Geosci., 10, 908–913,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-017-0001-8, 2017. a, b
Taylor, K. E., Juckes, M., Balaji, V., Cinquini, L., Denvil, S., Durack, P. J.,
Elkington, M., Guilyardi, E., Kharin, S., Lautenschlager, M., Lawrence, B.,
Nadeau, D., and Stockhause, M.: CMIP6 Global Attributes, DRS, Filenames,
Directory Structure and, CV's, Program for Climate Model
Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Tech. Rep. v6.2.6, http://goo.gl/v1drZl (last access: 25 March 2022), 2017. a
Tebaldi, C., Debeire, K., Eyring, V., Fischer, E., Fyfe, J., Friedlingstein, P., Knutti, R., Lowe, J., O'Neill, B., Sanderson, B., van Vuuren, D., Riahi, K., Meinshausen, M., Nicholls, Z., Tokarska, K. B., Hurtt, G., Kriegler, E., Lamarque, J.-F., Meehl, G., Moss, R., Bauer, S. E., Boucher, O., Brovkin, V., Byun, Y.-H., Dix, M., Gualdi, S., Guo, H., John, J. G., Kharin, S., Kim, Y., Koshiro, T., Ma, L., Olivié, D., Panickal, S., Qiao, F., Rong, X., Rosenbloom, N., Schupfner, M., Séférian, R., Sellar, A., Semmler, T., Shi, X., Song, Z., Steger, C., Stouffer, R., Swart, N., Tachiiri, K., Tang, Q., Tatebe, H., Voldoire, A., Volodin, E., Wyser, K., Xin, X., Yang, S., Yu, Y., and Ziehn, T.: Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6, Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, 2021. a
Tian, B. and Dong, X.: The Double-ITCZ Bias in CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 Models
Based on Annual Mean Precipitation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47,
e2020GL087232, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087232, 2020.
a
Ulbrich, U., Fink, A. H., Klawa, M., and Pinto, J. G.: Three extreme storms
over Europe in December 1999, Weather, 56, 70–80,
https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1477-8696.2001.tb06540.x, 2001. a
Ulbrich, U., Leckebusch, G. C., and Pinto, J. G.: Extra-tropical cyclones in
the present and future climate: a review, Theor. Appl.
Climatol., 96, 117–131, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-008-0083-8, 2009. a, b, c
Willison, J., Robinson, W. A., and Lackmann, G. M.: The Importance of
Resolving Mesoscale Latent Heating in the North Atlantic Storm Track,
J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 2234–2250,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-12-0226.1, 2013. a
Yin, J. H.: A consistent poleward shift of the storm tracks in simulations of
21st century climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L18701,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023684, 2005. a, b, c, d
Zappa, G., Shaffrey, L. C., Hodges, K. I., Sansom, P. G., and Stephenson,
D. B.: A Multimodel Assessment of Future Projections of North Atlantic and
European Extratropical Cyclones in the CMIP5 Climate Models, J.
Climate, 26, 5846–5862, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00573.1, 2013. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k, l, m, n, o
Zappa, G., Shaffrey, L., and Hodges, K.: Can Polar Lows be Objectively
Identified and Tracked in the ECMWF Operational Analysis and the ERA-Interim
Reanalysis?, Mon. Weather Rev., 142, 2596–2608,
https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-14-00064.1, 2014. a
Zappa, G., Hawcroft, M. K., Shaffrey, L., Black, E., and Brayshaw, D. J.:
Extratropical cyclones and the projected decline of winter Mediterranean
precipitation in the CMIP5 models, Clim. Dynam., 45, 1727–1738,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2426-8, 2015. a, b
Zelinka, M. D., Myers, T. A., McCoy, D. T., Po-Chedley, S., Caldwell, P. M.,
Ceppi, P., Klein, S. A., and Taylor, K. E.: Causes of Higher Climate
Sensitivity in CMIP6 Models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47,
e2019GL085 782, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085782, 2020. a, b
Short summary
We use the newest set of climate model experiments from CMIP6 to investigate changes to mid-latitude storm tracks and cyclones from global warming. The overall number of cyclones will decrease. However in winter there will be more of the most intense cyclones, and these intense cyclones are likely to be stronger. Cyclone wind speeds will increase in winter, and as a result the area of strongest wind speeds will increase. By 2100 the area of strong wind speeds may increase by over 30 %.
We use the newest set of climate model experiments from CMIP6 to investigate changes to...