Articles | Volume 3, issue 1
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 337–360, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-337-2022
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 337–360, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-337-2022
Research article
31 Mar 2022
Research article | 31 Mar 2022

Future changes in the extratropical storm tracks and cyclone intensity, wind speed, and structure

Matthew D. K. Priestley and Jennifer L. Catto

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Cited articles

Barnes, E. A. and Polvani, L.: Response of the Midlatitude Jets, and of Their Variability, to Increased Greenhouse Gases in the CMIP5 Models, J. Climate, 26, 7117–7135, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00536.1, 2013. a
Bengtsson, L., Hodges, K. I., and Roeckner, E.: Storm Tracks and Climate Change, J. Climate, 19, 3518–3543, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3815.1, 2006. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h
Bengtsson, L., Hodges, K. I., and Keenlyside, N.: Will Extratropical Storms Intensify in a Warmer Climate?, J. Climate, 22, 2276–2301, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2678.1, 2009. a, b, c, d, e, f
Binder, H., Boettcher, M., Joos, H., and Wernli, H.: The Role of Warm Conveyor Belts for the Intensification of Extratropical Cyclones in Northern Hemisphere Winter, J. Atmos. Sci., 73, 3997–4020, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0302.1, 2016. a
Bracegirdle, T. J., Holmes, C. R., Hosking, J. S., Marshall, G. J., Osman, M., Patterson, M., and Rackow, T.: Improvements in Circumpolar Southern Hemisphere Extratropical Atmospheric Circulation in CMIP6 Compared to CMIP5, Earth Space Sci., 7, e2019EA001065, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EA001065, 2020a. a
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Short summary
We use the newest set of climate model experiments from CMIP6 to investigate changes to mid-latitude storm tracks and cyclones from global warming. The overall number of cyclones will decrease. However in winter there will be more of the most intense cyclones, and these intense cyclones are likely to be stronger. Cyclone wind speeds will increase in winter, and as a result the area of strongest wind speeds will increase. By 2100 the area of strong wind speeds may increase by over 30 %.