Articles | Volume 3, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-337-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-337-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Future changes in the extratropical storm tracks and cyclone intensity, wind speed, and structure
Matthew D. K. Priestley
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Jennifer L. Catto
College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
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Cited
116 citations as recorded by crossref.
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- Hysteresis response of Northern Hemisphere winter temperature variability under different CO₂ removal pathways S. Kim et al.
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- Changes in flood-associated rainfall losses under climate change M. Ho et al.
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- Global Primary and Secondary Microseism Multi‐Decade Geographic Variation, Secular Intensification, and Period Lengthening R. Aster et al.
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- Seasonal shifts in pan-Arctic Ocean downward radiation and key drivers Y. Liu et al.
- Daily temperature variation in March in East Asia from 1979 to 2020 S. Kim & J. Ahn
- Compound wind and rainfall extremes: Drivers and future changes over the UK and Ireland C. Manning et al.
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- The future of the Portuguese (SW Europe) most vulnerable coastal areas under climate change – Part II: Future extreme coastal flooding from downscaled bias corrected wave climate projections G. Lemos et al.
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- Projection of Compound Wind and Precipitation Extreme Events in the Iberian Peninsula Based on CMIP6 I. Alvarez et al.
- Effects of large-scale changes in environmental factors on the genesis of Arctic extreme cyclones Y. Liu & Y. He
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- CMIP6 multi-model assessment of Northeast Atlantic and German Bight storm activity D. Krieger & R. Weisse
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- Climate-linked cascading disturbances drive conifer forest decline in a boreal–temperate ecotone: evidence from Kunashir Island (Northwest Pacific) K. Korznikov et al.
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- Aerosol effects on convective storms under pseudo-global warming conditions: insights from case studies in Germany L. Lucas et al.
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- Hysteresis response of Northern Hemisphere winter temperature variability under different CO₂ removal pathways S. Kim et al.
- Characteristic Changes in the Strengthening Western Disturbances over Karakoram in Recent Decades A. Javed & P. Kumar
- The future North Atlantic jet stream and storm track: relative contributions from sea ice and sea surface temperature changes D. Köhler et al.
- The Effect of Arctic Sea‐Ice Loss on Extratropical Cyclones S. Hay et al.
- Characteristics of diabatically influenced cyclones with high wind damage potential in Europe S. Christ et al.
- A global poleward shift of atmospheric rivers Z. Li & Q. Ding
- Present‐Day Regional Antarctic Sea Ice Response to Extratropical Cyclones J. Ward et al.
- Case study of a long-lived Siberian summer cyclone that evolved from a heat low into an Arctic cyclone F. Schnyder et al.
- Physical Dynamics of the Indian Ocean to Tropical Cyclone Neville (2024) I. Ainur Rahmat Hidayah et al.
- The importance of diabatic processes for the dynamics of synoptic-scale extratropical weather systems – a review H. Wernli & S. Gray
- Relating extratropical atmospheric heat transport to cyclone life cycle characteristics and numbers in Southern Hemispheric winter J. Zibell et al.
- Projections and uncertainties of winter windstorm damage in Europe in a changing climate L. Severino et al.
- Changes in flood-associated rainfall losses under climate change M. Ho et al.
- Changing windstorm characteristics over the US Northeast in a single model large ensemble J. Coburn et al.
- Case beyond historical severity: Winds, faults, outages, and costs for electric grid J. Jasiūnas et al.
- Projections of standardised energy indices in future climate scenarios E. Dolores-Tesillos et al.
- Global Primary and Secondary Microseism Multi‐Decade Geographic Variation, Secular Intensification, and Period Lengthening R. Aster et al.
- Chase the changing winds S. Xie
- Electricity Load Lost in the Largest Windstorms—Is the Fragility-Based Model up to the Task? J. Jasiūnas et al.
- Physics-based modeling of climate change impact on hurricane-induced coastal erosion hazards M. Jamous et al.
- Assessment of wind–damage relations for Norway using 36 years of daily insurance data A. Jaison et al.
- Seasonal shifts in pan-Arctic Ocean downward radiation and key drivers Y. Liu et al.
- Daily temperature variation in March in East Asia from 1979 to 2020 S. Kim & J. Ahn
- Compound wind and rainfall extremes: Drivers and future changes over the UK and Ireland C. Manning et al.
- Response of the Southern Hemisphere extratropical cyclone climatology to climate intervention with stratospheric aerosol injection M. Reboita et al.
- Introducing a new hazard and exposure atlas for European winter storms C. Jung & D. Schindler
- How relevant are frequency changes of weather regimes for understanding climate change signals in surface precipitation in the North Atlantic–European sector? A conceptual analysis with CESM1 large ensemble simulations L. Fischer et al.
- Projected changes in synoptic circulations over Europe and their implications for summer precipitation: A CMIP6 perspective P. Herrera‐Lormendez et al.
- Analysing the future trends of foehn-enabling synoptic patterns over two valleys in the Eastern Alps in CMIP5 EURO-CORDEX models P. Maier et al.
- Stratospheric influence on the winter North Atlantic storm track in subseasonal reforecasts H. Afargan-Gerstman et al.
- Projected increase in windstorm severity and contribution from sting jets over the UK and Ireland C. Manning et al.
- An assessment of two wind model uncertainties during storm events affecting Portugal N. Salvação et al.
- The case of sugar beet in Europe: a review of the challenges for a traditional food crop on the verge of climate change and circular agriculture J. Nap et al.
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- Projection of Compound Wind and Precipitation Extreme Events in the Iberian Peninsula Based on CMIP6 I. Alvarez et al.
- Effects of large-scale changes in environmental factors on the genesis of Arctic extreme cyclones Y. Liu & Y. He
- Return levels of extreme European windstorms, their dependency on the North Atlantic Oscillation, and potential future risks M. Priestley et al.
- CMIP6 multi-model assessment of Northeast Atlantic and German Bight storm activity D. Krieger & R. Weisse
- Climate change affects future sea-bed mobility via storms and sea level rise J. Rulent et al.
- Climate-linked cascading disturbances drive conifer forest decline in a boreal–temperate ecotone: evidence from Kunashir Island (Northwest Pacific) K. Korznikov et al.
- Future increased risk from extratropical windstorms in northern Europe A. Little et al.
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- Assessment and future projections of storm surge using CMIP6 models in the Indo-Pacific region K. Saha et al.
- Assessing the impact of global warming on windstorms in the northeastern United States using the pseudo-global-warming method J. Sethunadh et al.
- Arctic Sea Ice Loss Weakens Northern Hemisphere Summertime Storminess but Not Until the Late 21st Century J. Kang et al.
- Future changes in atmospheric synoptic variability slow down ocean circulation and decrease primary productivity in the tropical Pacific Ocean O. Duteil & W. Park
- Collective risk modelling of multi-peril events: correlation of European windstorm gust and precipitation annual severity T. Jones et al.
- Future Changes of European Windstorm Losses in EURO-CORDEX Simulations I. Alifdini et al.
- Assessing the intensification and impact of a historical storm in a warmer climate J. Øelund et al.
- Recent trends in extratropical lows and their rainfall over Australia A. Pepler & M. Osman
- On the importance of moisture conveyor belts from the tropical eastern Pacific for wetter conditions in the Atacama Desert during the mid-Pliocene M. Reyers et al.
- Major Baltic Inflows come in different flavours U. Löptien et al.
- The relationship between extra-tropical cyclone intensity and precipitation in idealised current and future climates V. Sinclair & J. Catto
- Asymmetric hysteresis response of mid-latitude storm tracks to CO2 removal J. Hwang et al.
- Climatology, trends, and variability of cold-season northern hemisphere extratropical cyclone characteristics during 1950–2023 in ERA5 M. Lynne & A. Dai
- Precipitation, moisture sources and transport pathways associated with summertime North Atlantic deep cyclones R. Stoffels et al.
- Borneo Vortices in a warmer climate J. Liang et al.
- Present and Future Changes in Winter Cyclonic Activity in the Mediterranean–Black Sea Region in the 21st Century Based on an Ensemble of CMIP6 Models E. Voskresenskaya et al.
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- The impact of synoptic storm likelihood on European subseasonal forecast uncertainty and their modulation by the stratosphere P. Rupp et al.
- Warm conveyor belts in present-day and future climate simulations – Part 1: Climatology and impacts H. Joos et al.
- Aquaplanet simulations with winter and summer hemispheres: model setup and circulation response to warming S. Schemm & M. Röthlisberger
- Classification of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones using multiple measures of intensity J. Cornér et al.
- Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LE – Part 2: A Lagrangian analysis E. Dolores-Tesillos & S. Pfahl
- Future Projections of EURO‐CORDEX Raw and Bias‐Corrected Daily Maximum Wind Speeds Over Scandinavia C. Michel & A. Sorteberg
- Future changes in compound explosive cyclones and atmospheric rivers in the North Atlantic F. Lopez-Marti et al.
- Increasing risk of compound heatwave-pluvial hazards in highly populated regions J. Liang et al.
- Underwater cultural heritage and extreme events: Storm impacts under climate change L. Germinario et al.
- Revisiting the reanalysis-model discrepancy in Southern Hemisphere winter storm track trends J. Kang et al.
- Projections of Australian low pressure systems in downscaled CMIP6 models A. Pepler et al.
- Variability in Projected North American Mean and Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Trends for the 21st Century: Model‐To‐Model Differences Versus Internal Variability M. Kelleher et al.
- Influence of degree days calculation methods on the optimum thermal insulation thickness in life-cycle cost analysis for building envelopes in Mediterranean and Semi-Arid climates K. Verichev et al.
- Reconstructing storm Gloria in a changing climate using physical storylines K. Grayson et al.
- Development shifts on the emerging Järve coast (Estonia) in Late Holocene K. Luik et al.
- A three-dimensional process-based morphodynamic model on orthogonal unstructured grids for coastal applications J. Reyns et al.
- Winter Storm Activity across Canada at the End of the Century: A CMIP5 Multi-model Projection S. Basu & D. Sauchyn
- ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE REGIONAL CYCLONE AND EXTREME WAVE CLIMATE IN THE BALTIC SEA M. Mäll et al.
- Deltaic marsh accretion under episodic sediment supply controlled by river regulations and storms: Implications for coastal wetlands restoration in the Yellow River Delta K. Wang et al.
- Antecedent rainfall, wind direction and seasonal effects may amplify the risk of wind-driven power outages in the UK C. Manning et al.
- Emerging near-surface extratropical circulation changes due to climate change: a weather typing based global analysis J. Fernández-Granja et al.
- Forced trends and internal variability in climate change projections of extreme European windstorm frequency and severity M. Priestley et al.
- The influence of mesoscale climate drivers on hypoxia in a fjord-like deep coastal inlet and its potential implications regarding climate change: examining a decade of water quality data J. Maxey et al.
- Classifying extratropical cyclones and their impact on Finland's electricity grid: insights from 92 damaging windstorms I. Láng-Ritter et al.
- Modelling the impacts of historical and future extreme precipitation days on seasonal surface mass balance in the Eastern Canadian Arctic and Greenland N. Loeb et al.
- The ice supersaturation biases limiting contrail modelling are structured around extratropical depressions O. Driver et al.
- Projections of windstorms damages under changing climate and demography for Norway A. Jaison et al.
- High temporal variability not trend dominates Mediterranean precipitation S. Vicente-Serrano et al.
- The New Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble With CMIP6 Forcing and High‐Frequency Model Output D. Olonscheck et al.
- A new metric for net extratropical cyclone activity and its insights into surface climate trends I. Simmonds & M. Li
- Exploring the nonstationarity of coastal sea level probability distributions F. Falasca et al.
- Global representation of extratropical cyclone precipitation and future trends in CMIP6 models M. Jucker et al.
- Projected changes in extreme daily precipitation linked to changes in precipitable water and vertical velocity in CMIP6 models L. Gimeno-Sotelo et al.
- Early action for coastal communities S. Muis
- Pest categorisation of Pestalotiopsis microspora C. Bragard et al.
- Weakening of Bomb Cyclones over the North Pacific in the Early 21st Century J. Gao et al.
- Aerial Trajectories and Meteorological Drivers of Transboundary Loxostege sticticalis Migration Across Northern China and Mongolia, 2022 X. Pu et al.
- Aerosol effects on convective storms under pseudo-global warming conditions: insights from case studies in Germany L. Lucas et al.
- Event attribution of a midlatitude windstorm using ensemble weather forecasts S. Ermis et al.
- Rain triggers seasonal stratification in a temperate shelf sea J. Jardine et al.
- Temperature Anomalies in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres: Evidence of Persistence and Trends L. Gil-Alana et al.
- A climate-change attribution retrospective of some impactful weather extremes of 2021 D. Faranda et al.
- A Comprehensive Review of Polygenetic Signatures, Methodological Advances, and Implications for Coastal Boulder Deposits (CBDs) Assessment A. Gharnate et al.
- Pest categorisation of Pestalotiopsis disseminata C. Bragard et al.
- Winter stratospheric extreme events impact European storm damage H. Afargan-Gerstman & D. Domeisen
- Emerging signals of climate change from the equator to the poles: new insights into a warming world M. Collins et al.
- Projected changes in atmospheric pathways of Western North American heatwaves simulated from high-resolution coupled model simulations M. Park & N. Johnson
- Synoptic conditions conducive for compound wind-flood events in Great Britain in present and future climates H. Bloomfield et al.
- CLIMK–WINDS: a new database of extreme European winter windstorms C. Flynn et al.
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 18 May 2026
Short summary
We use the newest set of climate model experiments from CMIP6 to investigate changes to mid-latitude storm tracks and cyclones from global warming. The overall number of cyclones will decrease. However in winter there will be more of the most intense cyclones, and these intense cyclones are likely to be stronger. Cyclone wind speeds will increase in winter, and as a result the area of strongest wind speeds will increase. By 2100 the area of strong wind speeds may increase by over 30 %.
We use the newest set of climate model experiments from CMIP6 to investigate changes to...