Articles | Volume 3, issue 2
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 471–482, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-471-2022
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 471–482, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-471-2022
Research article
13 Apr 2022
Research article | 13 Apr 2022

Extreme Atlantic hurricane seasons made twice as likely by ocean warming

Peter Pfleiderer et al.

Data sets

ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1979 to present H. Hersbach, B. Bell, P. Berrisford, G. Biavati, A. Horányi, J. Muñoz Sabater, J. Nicolas, C. Peubey, R. Radu, I. Rozum, D. Schepers, A. Simmons, C. Soci, D. Dee, and J.-N. Thépaut https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47

International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) Project K. R. Knapp, H. J. Diamond, J. P. Kossin, M. C. Kruk, and C. J. Schreck III https://doi.org/10.25921/82ty-9e16

Global Analyses of Sea Surface Temperature, Sea Ice, and Night Marine Air Temperature since the Late Nineteenth Century (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/) N. A. Rayner, D. E. Parker, E. B. Horton, C. K. Folland, L. V. Alexander, D. P. Rowell, E. C. Kent, and A. Kaplan https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002670

WCRP Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 6) World Climate Research Program (WCRP) https://esgf-data.dkrz.de/projects/cmip6-dkrz/

Improvements of the Daily Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (DOISST) Version 2.1 (https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/optimum-interpolation-sst) B. Huang, C. Liu, V. Banzon, E. Freeman, G. Graham, B. Hankins, T. Smith, and H.-M. Zhang https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0166.1

Model code and software

peterpeterp/tc_emulator: version 3 Peter Pfleiderer https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6223723

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Short summary
Tropical cyclones are amongst the most dangerous weather events. Here we develop an empirical model that allows us to estimate the number and strengths of tropical cyclones for given atmospheric conditions and sea surface temperatures. An application of the model shows that atmospheric circulation is the dominant factor for seasonal tropical cyclone activity. However, warming sea surface temperatures have doubled the likelihood of extremely active hurricane seasons in the past decades.