Articles | Volume 3, issue 2
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 471–482, 2022
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 471–482, 2022
Research article
13 Apr 2022
Research article | 13 Apr 2022

Extreme Atlantic hurricane seasons made twice as likely by ocean warming

Peter Pfleiderer et al.

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Cited articles

Bell, G. D., Halpert, M. S., Schnell, R. C., Higgins, R. W., Lawrimore, J., Kousky, V. E., Tinker, R., Thiaw, W., Chelliah, M., and Artusa, A.: Climate Assessment for 1999, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 81, S1–S50​​​​​​​, 2000. a
Bhatia, K., Vecchi, G., Murakami, H., Underwood, S., and Kossin, J.: Projected Response of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Intensification in a Global Climate Model, J. Climate, 31, 8281–8303,, 2018. a, b
Cattiaux, J., Vautard, R., Cassou, C., Yiou, P., Masson-Delmotte, V., and Codron, F.: Winter 2010 in Europe: A Cold Extreme in a Warming Climate: COLD WINTER 2010 IN EUROPE, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L20704,, 2010. a
CPC: Climate Prediction Center – Atlantic Hurricane Outlook,, last access: 22 July 2021. a, b
Dieng, A. L., Sall, S. M., Eymard, L., Leduc-Leballeur, M., and Lazar, A.: Trains of African Easterly Waves and Their Relationship to Tropical Cyclone Genesis in the Eastern Atlantic, Mon. Weather Rev., 145, 599–616,, 2017. a, b
Short summary
Tropical cyclones are amongst the most dangerous weather events. Here we develop an empirical model that allows us to estimate the number and strengths of tropical cyclones for given atmospheric conditions and sea surface temperatures. An application of the model shows that atmospheric circulation is the dominant factor for seasonal tropical cyclone activity. However, warming sea surface temperatures have doubled the likelihood of extremely active hurricane seasons in the past decades.