Weather and Climate Dynamics
Weather and Climate Dynamics
WCD
Articles | Volume 3, issue 2
Articles | Volume 3, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-471-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-471-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 3, issue 2
Research article
 | 
13 Apr 2022
Research article |  | 13 Apr 2022

Extreme Atlantic hurricane seasons made twice as likely by ocean warming

Peter Pfleiderer, Shruti Nath, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner

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Short summary
Tropical cyclones are amongst the most dangerous weather events. Here we develop an empirical model that allows us to estimate the number and strengths of tropical cyclones for given atmospheric conditions and sea surface temperatures. An application of the model shows that atmospheric circulation is the dominant factor for seasonal tropical cyclone activity. However, warming sea surface temperatures have doubled the likelihood of extremely active hurricane seasons in the past decades.
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