Articles | Volume 1, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-715-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-715-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
The role of Barents–Kara sea ice loss in projected polar vortex changes
Marlene Kretschmer
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Giuseppe Zappa
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Istituto di Scienze dell'Atmosfera e del Clima, Consiglio Nazionale
delle Ricerche, Bologna, Italy
Theodore G. Shepherd
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
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Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1215–1236, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1215-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1215-2022, 2022
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Over 10 km above the ground, there is a region of the atmosphere called the stratosphere. While there is very little air in the stratosphere itself, its interactions with the lower parts of the atmosphere – where we live – can affect the weather. Here we study a specific example of such an interaction, whereby processes occurring at the boundary of the stratosphere can lead to a continent-wide drop in temperatures in North America during winter.
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Federico Fabiano, Paolo Davini, Virna L. Meccia, Giuseppe Zappa, Alessio Bellucci, Valerio Lembo, Katinka Bellomo, and Susanna Corti
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Even after the concentration of greenhouse gases is stabilized, the climate will continue to adapt, seeking a new equilibrium. We study this long-term stabilization through a set of 1000-year simulations, obtained by suddenly "freezing" the atmospheric composition at different levels. If frozen at the current state, global warming surpasses 3° in the long term with our model. We then study how climate impacts will change after various centuries and how the deep ocean will warm.
Wilson C. H. Chan, Nigel W. Arnell, Geoff Darch, Katie Facer-Childs, Theodore G. Shepherd, and Maliko Tanguy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1065–1078, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024, 2024
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Philipp Breul, Paulo Ceppi, and Theodore G. Shepherd
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 39–47, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-39-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-39-2023, 2023
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Accurately predicting the response of the midlatitude jet stream to climate change is very important, but models show a variety of possible scenarios. Previous work identified a relationship between climatological jet latitude and future jet shift in the southern hemispheric winter. We show that the relationship does not hold in separate sectors and propose that zonal asymmetries are the ultimate cause in the zonal mean. This questions the usefulness of the relationship.
Gabriele Messori, Marlene Kretschmer, Simon H. Lee, and Vivien Wendt
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1215–1236, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1215-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1215-2022, 2022
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Philipp Breul, Paulo Ceppi, and Theodore G. Shepherd
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 645–658, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-645-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-645-2022, 2022
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Wilson C. H. Chan, Theodore G. Shepherd, Katie Facer-Childs, Geoff Darch, and Nigel W. Arnell
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The stratosphere is emerging as one of the keys to improve tropospheric weather and climate predictions. This study provides evidence of the role the stratospheric ozone layer plays in improving weather predictions at different timescales. Using a new ozone modelling approach suitable for high-resolution global models that provide operational forecasts from days to seasons, we find significant improvements in stratospheric meteorological fields and stratosphere–troposphere coupling.
Adam A. Scaife, Mark P. Baldwin, Amy H. Butler, Andrew J. Charlton-Perez, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Steven C. Hardiman, Peter Haynes, Alexey Yu Karpechko, Eun-Pa Lim, Shunsuke Noguchi, Judith Perlwitz, Lorenzo Polvani, Jadwiga H. Richter, John Scinocca, Michael Sigmond, Theodore G. Shepherd, Seok-Woo Son, and David W. J. Thompson
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The storyline method is used to quantify the effect of climate change on a particular extreme weather event using a global atmospheric model by simulating the event with and without climate change. We present the method and its successful application for the climate change signals of the European 2003 and the Russian 2010 heatwaves.
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Short summary
The winds in the polar stratosphere affect the weather in the mid-latitudes, making it important to understand potential changes in response to global warming. However, climate model projections disagree on how this so-called polar vortex will change in the future. Here we show that sea ice loss in the Barents and Kara (BK) seas plays a central role in this. The time when the BK seas become ice-free differs between models, which explains some of the disagreement regarding vortex projections.
The winds in the polar stratosphere affect the weather in the mid-latitudes, making it important...