Articles | Volume 3, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-139-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-139-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Twenty-first-century Southern Hemisphere impacts of ozone recovery and climate change from the stratosphere to the ocean
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany
Katja Matthes
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany
Arne Biastoch
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany
Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Christian-Albrechts Universität zu Kiel, Kiel, Germany
Sebastian Wahl
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany
Jan Harlaß
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany
Related authors
Nele Tim, Eduardo Zorita, Birgit Hünicke, and Ioana Ivanciu
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 381–397, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-381-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-381-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
As stated by the IPCC, southern Africa is one of the two land regions that are projected to suffer from the strongest precipitation reductions in the future. Simulated drying in this region is linked to the adjacent oceans, and prevailing winds as warm and moist air masses are transported towards the continent. Precipitation trends in past and future climate can be partly attributed to the strength of the Agulhas Current system, the current along the east and south coasts of southern Africa.
Ioana Ivanciu, Katja Matthes, Sebastian Wahl, Jan Harlaß, and Arne Biastoch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5777–5806, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5777-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5777-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic ozone hole has driven substantial dynamical changes in the Southern Hemisphere atmosphere over the past decades. This study separates the historical impacts of ozone depletion from those of rising levels of greenhouse gases and investigates how these impacts are captured in two types of climate models: one using interactive atmospheric chemistry and one prescribing the CMIP6 ozone field. The effects of ozone depletion are more pronounced in the model with interactive chemistry.
Susann Tegtmeier, James Anstey, Sean Davis, Rossana Dragani, Yayoi Harada, Ioana Ivanciu, Robin Pilch Kedzierski, Kirstin Krüger, Bernard Legras, Craig Long, James S. Wang, Krzysztof Wargan, and Jonathon S. Wright
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 753–770, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-753-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-753-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The tropical tropopause layer is an important atmospheric region right in between the troposphere and the stratosphere. We evaluate the representation of this layer in reanalyses data sets, which create a complete picture of the state of Earth's atmosphere using atmospheric modeling and available observations. The recent reanalyses show realistic temperatures in the tropical tropopause layer. However, where the temperature is lowest, the so-called cold point, the reanalyses are too cold.
Hendrik Grosselindemann, Frederic S. Castruccio, Gokhan Danabasoglu, and Arne Biastoch
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2288, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2288, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates Agulhas Leakage and examines its role in the global ocean circulation. It utilises a high-resolution earth system model and a pre-industrial climate to look at the response of Agulhas Leakage to the wind field and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as well as its evolution under climate change. Agulhas Leakage influences the stability of the AMOC whose possible collapse would impact the global climate on the Northern Hemisphere.
Wenjuan Huo, Tobias Spiegl, Sebastian Wahl, Katja Matthes, Ulrike Langematz, Holger Pohlmann, and Jürgen Kröger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1288, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1288, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Uncertainties of the solar signals in the middle atmosphere are assessed based on large ensemble simulations with multiple climate models. Our results demonstrate the 11-year solar signals in the short wave heating rate, temperature, and ozone anomalies are significant and robust. the simulated dynamical responses are model-dependent, and solar imprints in the polar night jet are influenced by biases in the model used.
Kristin Burmeister, Franziska U. Schwarzkopf, Willi Rath, Arne Biastoch, Peter Brandt, Joke F. Lübbecke, and Mark Inall
Ocean Sci., 20, 307–339, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-307-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-307-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We apply two different forcing products to a high-resolution ocean model to investigate their impact on the simulated upper-current field in the tropical Atlantic. Where possible, we compare the simulated results to long-term observations. We find large discrepancies between the two simulations regarding the wind and current fields. We propose that long-term observations, once they have reached a critical length, need to be used to test the quality of wind-driven simulations.
Tabea Rahm, Robin Pilch Kedzierski, Martje Hänsch, and Katja Matthes
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-667, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-667, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) are extreme wintertime events that can impact surface weather. However, a distinct surface response is not observed for every SSW. Here, we classify SSWs that do and do not impact the troposphere in ERA5 reanalysis data. In addition, we evaluate the effects of two kinds of waves: planetary and synoptic-scale. Our findings emphasize that the lower stratosphere and synoptic-scale waves play crucial roles in coupling the SSW signal to the surface.
Abhishek Savita, Joakim Kjellsson, Robin Pilch Kedzierski, Mojib Latif, Tabea Rahm, Sebastian Wahl, and Wonsun Park
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1813–1829, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1813-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1813-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The OpenIFS model is used to examine the impact of horizontal resolutions (HR) and model time steps. We find that the surface wind biases over the oceans, in particular the Southern Ocean, are sensitive to the model time step and HR, with the HR having the smallest biases. When using a coarse-resolution model with a shorter time step, a similar improvement is also found. Climate biases can be reduced in the OpenIFS model at a cheaper cost by reducing the time step rather than increasing the HR.
Jake W. Casselman, Joke F. Lübbecke, Tobias Bayr, Wenjuan Huo, Sebastian Wahl, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 471–487, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-471-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-471-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has remote effects on the tropical North Atlantic (TNA), but the connections' nonlinearity (strength of response to an increasing ENSO signal) is not always well represented in models. Using the Community Earth System Model version 1 – Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Mode (CESM-WACCM) and the Flexible Ocean and Climate Infrastructure version 1, we find that the TNA responds linearly to extreme El Niño but nonlinearly to extreme La Niña for CESM-WACCM.
Nele Tim, Eduardo Zorita, Birgit Hünicke, and Ioana Ivanciu
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 381–397, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-381-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-381-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
As stated by the IPCC, southern Africa is one of the two land regions that are projected to suffer from the strongest precipitation reductions in the future. Simulated drying in this region is linked to the adjacent oceans, and prevailing winds as warm and moist air masses are transported towards the continent. Precipitation trends in past and future climate can be partly attributed to the strength of the Agulhas Current system, the current along the east and south coasts of southern Africa.
Torge Martin and Arne Biastoch
Ocean Sci., 19, 141–167, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-141-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-141-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
How is the ocean affected by continued Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss? We show in a systematic set of model experiments that atmospheric feedback needs to be accounted for as the large-scale ocean circulation is more than twice as sensitive to the meltwater otherwise. Coastal winds, boundary currents, and ocean eddies play a key role in redistributing the meltwater. Eddy paramterization helps the coarse simulation to perform better in the Labrador Sea but not in the North Atlantic Current region.
Alan D. Fox, Patricia Handmann, Christina Schmidt, Neil Fraser, Siren Rühs, Alejandra Sanchez-Franks, Torge Martin, Marilena Oltmanns, Clare Johnson, Willi Rath, N. Penny Holliday, Arne Biastoch, Stuart A. Cunningham, and Igor Yashayaev
Ocean Sci., 18, 1507–1533, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1507-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1507-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Observations of the eastern subpolar North Atlantic in the 2010s show exceptional freshening and cooling of the upper ocean, peaking in 2016 with the lowest salinities recorded for 120 years. Using results from a high-resolution ocean model, supported by observations, we propose that the leading cause is reduced surface cooling over the preceding decade in the Labrador Sea, leading to increased outflow of less dense water and so to freshening and cooling of the eastern subpolar North Atlantic.
Jörg Fröhle, Patricia V. K. Handmann, and Arne Biastoch
Ocean Sci., 18, 1431–1450, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1431-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1431-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Three deep-water masses pass the southern exit of the Labrador Sea. Usually they are defined by explicit density intervals linked to the formation region. We evaluate this relation in an ocean model by backtracking the paths the water follows for 40 years: 48 % densify without contact to the atmosphere, 24 % densify in contact with the atmosphere, and 19 % are from the Nordic Seas. All three contribute to a similar density range at 53° N with weak specific formation location characteristics.
Chia-Te Chien, Jonathan V. Durgadoo, Dana Ehlert, Ivy Frenger, David P. Keller, Wolfgang Koeve, Iris Kriest, Angela Landolfi, Lavinia Patara, Sebastian Wahl, and Andreas Oschlies
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5987–6024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5987-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5987-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present the implementation and evaluation of a marine biogeochemical model, Model of Oceanic Pelagic Stoichiometry (MOPS) in the Flexible Ocean and Climate Infrastructure (FOCI) climate model. FOCI-MOPS enables the simulation of marine biological processes, the marine carbon, nitrogen and oxygen cycles, and air–sea gas exchange of CO2 and O2. As shown by our evaluation, FOCI-MOPS shows an overall adequate performance that makes it an appropriate tool for Earth climate system simulations.
Takaya Uchida, Julien Le Sommer, Charles Stern, Ryan P. Abernathey, Chris Holdgraf, Aurélie Albert, Laurent Brodeau, Eric P. Chassignet, Xiaobiao Xu, Jonathan Gula, Guillaume Roullet, Nikolay Koldunov, Sergey Danilov, Qiang Wang, Dimitris Menemenlis, Clément Bricaud, Brian K. Arbic, Jay F. Shriver, Fangli Qiao, Bin Xiao, Arne Biastoch, René Schubert, Baylor Fox-Kemper, William K. Dewar, and Alan Wallcraft
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5829–5856, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5829-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5829-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean and climate scientists have used numerical simulations as a tool to examine the ocean and climate system since the 1970s. Since then, owing to the continuous increase in computational power and advances in numerical methods, we have been able to simulate increasing complex phenomena. However, the fidelity of the simulations in representing the phenomena remains a core issue in the ocean science community. Here we propose a cloud-based framework to inter-compare and assess such simulations.
Jens Zinke, Takaaki K. Watanabe, Siren Rühs, Miriam Pfeiffer, Stefan Grab, Dieter Garbe-Schönberg, and Arne Biastoch
Clim. Past, 18, 1453–1474, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1453-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1453-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Salinity is an important and integrative measure of changes to the water cycle steered by changes to the balance between rainfall and evaporation and by vertical and horizontal movements of water parcels by ocean currents. However, salinity measurements in our oceans are extremely sparse. To fill this gap, we have developed a 334-year coral record of seawater oxygen isotopes that reflects salinity changes in the globally important Agulhas Current system and reveals its main oceanic drivers.
Annika Drews, Wenjuan Huo, Katja Matthes, Kunihiko Kodera, and Tim Kruschke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 7893–7904, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7893-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7893-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Solar irradiance varies with a period of approximately 11 years. Using a unique large chemistry–climate model dataset, we investigate the solar surface signal in the North Atlantic and European region and find that it changes over time, depending on the strength of the solar cycle. For the first time, we estimate the potential predictability associated with including realistic solar forcing in a model. These results may improve seasonal to decadal predictions of European climate.
Ioannis A. Daglis, Loren C. Chang, Sergio Dasso, Nat Gopalswamy, Olga V. Khabarova, Emilia Kilpua, Ramon Lopez, Daniel Marsh, Katja Matthes, Dibyendu Nandy, Annika Seppälä, Kazuo Shiokawa, Rémi Thiéblemont, and Qiugang Zong
Ann. Geophys., 39, 1013–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-39-1013-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-39-1013-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present a detailed account of the science programme PRESTO (PREdictability of the variable Solar–Terrestrial cOupling), covering the period 2020 to 2024. PRESTO was defined by a dedicated committee established by SCOSTEP (Scientific Committee on Solar-Terrestrial Physics). We review the current state of the art and discuss future studies required for the most effective development of solar–terrestrial physics.
Arne Biastoch, Franziska U. Schwarzkopf, Klaus Getzlaff, Siren Rühs, Torge Martin, Markus Scheinert, Tobias Schulzki, Patricia Handmann, Rebecca Hummels, and Claus W. Böning
Ocean Sci., 17, 1177–1211, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1177-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1177-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) quantifies the impact of the ocean on climate and climate change. Here we show that a high-resolution ocean model is able to realistically simulate ocean currents. While the mean representation of the AMOC depends on choices made for the model and on the atmospheric forcing, the temporal variability is quite robust. Comparing the ocean model with ocean observations, we able to identify that the AMOC has declined over the past two decades.
Christina Schmidt, Franziska U. Schwarzkopf, Siren Rühs, and Arne Biastoch
Ocean Sci., 17, 1067–1080, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1067-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1067-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We estimate Agulhas leakage, water flowing from the Indian Ocean to the South Atlantic, in an ocean model with two different tools. The mean transport, variability and trend of Agulhas leakage is simulated comparably with both tools, emphasising the robustness of our method. If the experiments are designed differently, the mean transport of Agulhas leakage is altered, but not the trend. Agulhas leakage waters cool and become less salty south of Africa resulting in a density increase.
Ioana Ivanciu, Katja Matthes, Sebastian Wahl, Jan Harlaß, and Arne Biastoch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5777–5806, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5777-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5777-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic ozone hole has driven substantial dynamical changes in the Southern Hemisphere atmosphere over the past decades. This study separates the historical impacts of ozone depletion from those of rising levels of greenhouse gases and investigates how these impacts are captured in two types of climate models: one using interactive atmospheric chemistry and one prescribing the CMIP6 ozone field. The effects of ozone depletion are more pronounced in the model with interactive chemistry.
Josefine Maas, Susann Tegtmeier, Yue Jia, Birgit Quack, Jonathan V. Durgadoo, and Arne Biastoch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4103–4121, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4103-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4103-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Cooling-water disinfection at coastal power plants is a known source of atmospheric bromoform. A large source of anthropogenic bromoform is the industrial regions in East Asia. In current bottom-up flux estimates, these anthropogenic emissions are missing, underestimating the global air–sea flux of bromoform. With transport simulations, we show that by including anthropogenic bromoform from cooling-water treatment, the bottom-up flux estimates significantly improve in East and Southeast Asia.
Sabine Haase, Jaika Fricke, Tim Kruschke, Sebastian Wahl, and Katja Matthes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14043–14061, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14043-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14043-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Ozone depletion over Antarctica was shown to influence the tropospheric jet in the Southern Hemisphere. We investigate the atmospheric response to ozone depletion comparing climate model ensembles with interactive and prescribed ozone fields. We show that allowing feedbacks between ozone chemistry and model physics as well as including asymmetries in ozone leads to a strengthened ozone depletion signature in the stratosphere but does not significantly affect the tropospheric jet position.
Robin Pilch Kedzierski, Katja Matthes, and Karl Bumke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 11569–11592, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11569-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11569-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Rossby wave packet (RWP) dynamics are crucial for weather forecasting, climate change projections and stratosphere–troposphere interactions. Our study is a first attempt to describe RWP behavior in the UTLS with global coverage directly from observations, using GNSS-RO data. Our novel results show an interesting relation of RWP vertical propagation with sudden stratospheric warmings and provide very useful information to improve RWP diagnostics in models and reanalysis.
Julian Krüger, Robin Pilch Kedzierski, Karl Bumke, and Katja Matthes
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2020-32, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2020-32, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Motivated by the European heat wave occurrences of 2015 and 2018, this study evaluates the influence of cold North Atlantic SST anomalies on European heat waves by using the ERA-5 reanalysis product. Our findings show that widespread cold North Atlantic SST anomalies may be a precursor for a persistent jet stream pattern and are thus important for the onset of high European temperatures.
Markus Kunze, Tim Kruschke, Ulrike Langematz, Miriam Sinnhuber, Thomas Reddmann, and Katja Matthes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6991–7019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6991-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6991-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Modelling the response of the atmosphere and its constituents to 11-year solar variations is subject to a certain uncertainty arising from the solar irradiance data set used in the chemistry–climate model (CCM) and the applied CCM itself.
This study reveals significant influences from both sources on the variations in the solar response in the stratosphere and mesosphere.
However, there are also regions where the random, unexplained part of the variations in the solar response is largest.
Haiyan Li, Robin Pilch Kedzierski, and Katja Matthes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6541–6561, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6541-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6541-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The QBO westerly phase was reversed by an unexpected easterly jet near 40 hPa and the westerly zonal wind lasted an unusually long time at 20 hPa during winter 2015/16. We find that quasi-stationary Rossby wave W1 and faster Rossby wave W2 propagating from the northern extratropics and a locally generated Rossby wave W3 were important contributors to the easterly jet at 40 hPa. Our results suggest that the unusual zonal wind structure at 20 hPa could be caused by enhanced Kelvin wave activity.
Katja Matthes, Arne Biastoch, Sebastian Wahl, Jan Harlaß, Torge Martin, Tim Brücher, Annika Drews, Dana Ehlert, Klaus Getzlaff, Fritz Krüger, Willi Rath, Markus Scheinert, Franziska U. Schwarzkopf, Tobias Bayr, Hauke Schmidt, and Wonsun Park
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2533–2568, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2533-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2533-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A new Earth system model, the Flexible Ocean and Climate Infrastructure (FOCI), is introduced, consisting of a high-top atmosphere, an ocean model, sea-ice and land surface model components. A unique feature of FOCI is the ability to explicitly resolve small-scale oceanic features, for example, the Agulhas Current and the Gulf Stream. It allows to study the evolution of the climate system on regional and seasonal to (multi)decadal scales and bridges the gap to coarse-resolution climate models.
Susann Tegtmeier, James Anstey, Sean Davis, Rossana Dragani, Yayoi Harada, Ioana Ivanciu, Robin Pilch Kedzierski, Kirstin Krüger, Bernard Legras, Craig Long, James S. Wang, Krzysztof Wargan, and Jonathon S. Wright
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 753–770, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-753-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-753-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The tropical tropopause layer is an important atmospheric region right in between the troposphere and the stratosphere. We evaluate the representation of this layer in reanalyses data sets, which create a complete picture of the state of Earth's atmosphere using atmospheric modeling and available observations. The recent reanalyses show realistic temperatures in the tropical tropopause layer. However, where the temperature is lowest, the so-called cold point, the reanalyses are too cold.
Nele Tim, Eduardo Zorita, Kay-Christian Emeis, Franziska U. Schwarzkopf, Arne Biastoch, and Birgit Hünicke
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 847–858, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-847-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-847-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Our study reveals that the latitudinal position and intensity of Southern Hemisphere trades and westerlies are correlated. In the last decades the westerlies have shifted poleward and intensified. Furthermore, the latitudinal shifts and intensity of the trades and westerlies impact the sea surface temperatures around southern Africa and in the South Benguela upwelling region. The future development of wind stress depends on the strength of greenhouse gas forcing.
Franziska U. Schwarzkopf, Arne Biastoch, Claus W. Böning, Jérôme Chanut, Jonathan V. Durgadoo, Klaus Getzlaff, Jan Harlaß, Jan K. Rieck, Christina Roth, Markus M. Scheinert, and René Schubert
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3329–3355, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3329-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3329-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A family of nested global ocean general circulation model configurations, the INALT family, has been established with resolutions of 1/10°, 1/20° and 1/60° in the South Atlantic and western Indian oceans, covering the greater Agulhas Current (AC) system. The INALT family provides a consistent set of configurations that allows to address eddy dynamics in the AC system and their impact on the large-scale ocean circulation.
Josefine Maas, Susann Tegtmeier, Birgit Quack, Arne Biastoch, Jonathan V. Durgadoo, Siren Rühs, Stephan Gollasch, and Matej David
Ocean Sci., 15, 891–904, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-891-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-891-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In a large-scale analysis, the spread of disinfection by-products from oxidative ballast water treatment is investigated, with a focus on Southeast Asia where major ports are located. Halogenated compounds such as bromoform (CHBr3) are produced in the ballast water and, once emitted into the environment, can participate in ozone depletion. Anthropogenic bromoform is rapidly emitted into the atmosphere and can locally double around large ports. A large-scale impact cannot be found.
Siren Rühs, Franziska U. Schwarzkopf, Sabrina Speich, and Arne Biastoch
Ocean Sci., 15, 489–512, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-489-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-489-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We revisit the sources for the upper limb of the overturning circulation in the South Atlantic by tracking fluid particles in a high-resolution ocean model. Our results suggest that the upper limb’s transport is dominantly supplied by waters with Indian Ocean origin, but the contribution of waters with Pacific origin is substantially larger than previously estimated with coarse-resolution models. Yet, a large part of upper limb waters obtains thermohaline properties within the South Atlantic.
Sabine Haase and Katja Matthes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 3417–3432, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3417-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3417-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic ozone hole influences surface climate in the Southern Hemisphere. Recent studies have shown that stratospheric ozone depletion in the Arctic can also affect the surface. We evaluate the importance of the direct and indirect representation of ozone variability in a climate model for this surface response. We show that allowing feedbacks between ozone chemistry, radiation, and dynamics enhances and prolongs the surface response to Northern Hemisphere spring ozone depletion.
Amanda C. Maycock, Katja Matthes, Susann Tegtmeier, Hauke Schmidt, Rémi Thiéblemont, Lon Hood, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Oliver Kirner, Markus Kunze, Marion Marchand, Daniel R. Marsh, Martine Michou, David Plummer, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Yousuke Yamashita, and Kohei Yoshida
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11323–11343, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11323-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11323-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The 11-year solar cycle is an important driver of climate variability. Changes in incoming solar ultraviolet radiation affect atmospheric ozone, which in turn influences atmospheric temperatures. Constraining the impact of the solar cycle on ozone is therefore important for understanding climate variability. This study examines the representation of the solar influence on ozone in numerical models used to simulate past and future climate. We highlight important differences among model datasets.
Vered Silverman, Nili Harnik, Katja Matthes, Sandro W. Lubis, and Sebastian Wahl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6637–6659, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6637-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6637-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides a quantified and mechanistic understanding of the radiative effects of ozone waves on the NH stratosphere. In particular, we find these effects to influence the seasonal evolution of the midlatitude QBO signal (Holton–Tan effect), which is important for getting realistic dynamical interactions in climate models. We also provide a synoptic view on the evolution of the seasonal development of the Holton–Tan effect by looking at the life cycle of upward-propagating waves.
Martin G. Schultz, Scarlet Stadtler, Sabine Schröder, Domenico Taraborrelli, Bruno Franco, Jonathan Krefting, Alexandra Henrot, Sylvaine Ferrachat, Ulrike Lohmann, David Neubauer, Colombe Siegenthaler-Le Drian, Sebastian Wahl, Harri Kokkola, Thomas Kühn, Sebastian Rast, Hauke Schmidt, Philip Stier, Doug Kinnison, Geoffrey S. Tyndall, John J. Orlando, and Catherine Wespes
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1695–1723, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1695-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1695-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The chemistry–climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ contains a detailed representation of tropospheric and stratospheric reactive chemistry and state-of-the-art parameterizations of aerosols. It thus allows for detailed investigations of chemical processes in the climate system. Evaluation of the model with various observational data yields good results, but the model has a tendency to produce too much OH in the tropics. This highlights the important interplay between atmospheric chemistry and dynamics.
Katja Matthes, Bernd Funke, Monika E. Andersson, Luke Barnard, Jürg Beer, Paul Charbonneau, Mark A. Clilverd, Thierry Dudok de Wit, Margit Haberreiter, Aaron Hendry, Charles H. Jackman, Matthieu Kretzschmar, Tim Kruschke, Markus Kunze, Ulrike Langematz, Daniel R. Marsh, Amanda C. Maycock, Stergios Misios, Craig J. Rodger, Adam A. Scaife, Annika Seppälä, Ming Shangguan, Miriam Sinnhuber, Kleareti Tourpali, Ilya Usoskin, Max van de Kamp, Pekka T. Verronen, and Stefan Versick
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2247–2302, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2247-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2247-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The solar forcing dataset for climate model experiments performed for the upcoming IPCC report is described. This dataset provides the radiative and particle input of solar variability on a daily basis from 1850 through to 2300. With this dataset a better representation of natural climate variability with respect to the output of the Sun is provided which provides the most sophisticated and comprehensive respresentation of solar variability that has been used in climate model simulations so far.
Robin Pilch Kedzierski, Katja Matthes, and Karl Bumke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 4093–4114, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4093-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4093-2017, 2017
Sandro W. Lubis, Vered Silverman, Katja Matthes, Nili Harnik, Nour-Eddine Omrani, and Sebastian Wahl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 2437–2458, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2437-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2437-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Downward wave coupling (DWC) events impact high-latitude stratospheric ozone in two ways: (1) reduced dynamical transport of ozone from low to high latitudes during individual events and (2) enhanced springtime chemical destruction of ozone via the cumulative impact of DWC events on polar stratospheric temperatures. The results presented here broaden the scope of the impact of wave–mean flow interaction on stratospheric ozone by highlighting the key role of wave reflection.
Kunihiko Kodera, Rémi Thiéblemont, Seiji Yukimoto, and Katja Matthes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 12925–12944, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12925-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12925-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The spatial structure of the solar cycle signals on the Earth's surface is analysed to identify the mechanisms. Both tropical and extratropical solar surface signals can result from circulation changes in the upper stratosphere through (i) a downward migration of wave zonal mean flow interactions and (ii) changes in the stratospheric mean meridional circulation. Amplification of the solar signal also occurs through interaction with the ocean.
Nathan P. Gillett, Hideo Shiogama, Bernd Funke, Gabriele Hegerl, Reto Knutti, Katja Matthes, Benjamin D. Santer, Daithi Stone, and Claudia Tebaldi
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3685–3697, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3685-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3685-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Detection and attribution of climate change is the process of determining the causes of observed climate changes, which has underpinned key conclusions on the role of human influence on climate in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This paper describes a coordinated set of climate model experiments that will form part of the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and will support improved attribution of climate change in the next IPCC report.
Robin Pilch Kedzierski, Katja Matthes, and Karl Bumke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 11617–11633, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-11617-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-11617-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides a detailed overview of the daily variability of the tropopause inversion layer (TIL) in the tropics, where TIL research had focused little. The vertical and horizontal structures of this atmospheric layer are described and linked to near-tropopause horizontal wind divergence, the QBO and especially to equatorial waves. Our results increase the knowledge about the observed properties of the tropical TIL, mainly using satellite GPS radio-occultation measurements.
Amanda C. Maycock, Katja Matthes, Susann Tegtmeier, Rémi Thiéblemont, and Lon Hood
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 10021–10043, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10021-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10021-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of changes in incoming solar radiation on stratospheric ozone has important impacts on the atmosphere. Understanding this ozone response is crucial for constraining how solar activity affects climate. This study analyses the solar ozone response (SOR) in satellite datasets and shows that there are substantial differences in the magnitude and spatial structure across different records. In particular, the SOR in the new SAGE v7.0 mixing ratio data is smaller than in the previous v6.2.
Ming Shangguan, Katja Matthes, Wuke Wang, and Tae-Kwon Wee
Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2016-248, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2016-248, 2016
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
Short summary
Short summary
A first validation of the COSMIC Radio Occultation (RO) water vapor data in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) are presented in this paper. The COSMIC water vapor shows a good agreement with the Microwave limb Sounder (MLS) in both the spatial distribution and the seasonal to interannual variations. It is very valuable for studying the water vapor in the UTLS, thanks to its global coverage, all- weather aptitude and high vertical resolution.
W. Wang, K. Matthes, and T. Schmidt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5815–5826, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5815-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5815-2015, 2015
D. Le Bars, J. V. Durgadoo, H. A. Dijkstra, A. Biastoch, and W. P. M. De Ruijter
Ocean Sci., 10, 601–609, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-601-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-601-2014, 2014
I. Ermolli, K. Matthes, T. Dudok de Wit, N. A. Krivova, K. Tourpali, M. Weber, Y. C. Unruh, L. Gray, U. Langematz, P. Pilewskie, E. Rozanov, W. Schmutz, A. Shapiro, S. K. Solanki, and T. N. Woods
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3945–3977, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3945-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3945-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Role of atmospheric dynamics in climate change projections
Could an extremely cold central European winter such as 1963 happen again despite climate change?
Impact of climate change on persistent cold-air pools in an alpine valley during the 21st century
Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LE – Part 2: A Lagrangian analysis
Atmospheric bias teleconnections in boreal winter associated with systematic sea surface temperature errors in the tropical Indian Ocean
The relationship between extra-tropical cyclone intensity and precipitation in idealised current and future climates
Future changes in the mean and variability of extreme rainfall indices over the Guinea coast and role of the Atlantic equatorial mode
Warm conveyor belts in present-day and future climate simulations – Part 1: Climatology and impacts
Warm conveyor belts in present-day and future climate simulations – Part 2: Role of potential vorticity production for cyclone intensification
A climate-change attribution retrospective of some impactful weather extremes of 2021
The response of tropical cyclone intensity to changes in environmental temperature
Relationship between southern hemispheric jet variability and forced response: the role of the stratosphere
Storm track response to uniform global warming downstream of an idealized sea surface temperature front
Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LE – Part 1: Cyclone intensity, potential vorticity anomalies, and horizontal wind speed
Impact of climate change on wintertime European atmospheric blocking
Future summer warming pattern under climate change is affected by lapse-rate changes
The importance of horizontal model resolution on simulated precipitation in Europe – from global to regional models
Future wintertime meridional wind trends through the lens of subseasonal teleconnections
Decomposing the response of the stratospheric Brewer–Dobson circulation to an abrupt quadrupling in CO2
The substructure of extremely hot summers in the Northern Hemisphere
Sebastian Sippel, Clair Barnes, Camille Cadiou, Erich Fischer, Sarah Kew, Marlene Kretschmer, Sjoukje Philip, Theodore G. Shepherd, Jitendra Singh, Robert Vautard, and Pascal Yiou
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 943–957, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Winter temperatures in central Europe have increased. But cold winters can still cause problems for energy systems, infrastructure, or human health. Here we tested whether a record-cold winter, such as the one observed in 1963 over central Europe, could still occur despite climate change. The answer is yes: it is possible, but it is very unlikely. Our results rely on climate model simulations and statistical rare event analysis. In conclusion, society must be prepared for such cold winters.
Sara Bacer, Julien Beaumet, Martin Ménégoz, Hubert Gallée, Enzo Le Bouëdec, and Chantal Staquet
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 211–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-211-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-211-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A model chain is used to downscale outputs from a climate model to the Grenoble valley atmosphere over the 21st century in order to study the impact of climate change on persistent cold-air pool episodes. We find that the atmosphere in the Grenoble valleys during these episodes tends to be slightly less stable in the future under the SSP5–8.5 scenario, and statistically unchanged under the SSP2–4.5 scenario but that very stable persistent cold-air pool episodes can still form.
Edgar Dolores-Tesillos and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 163–179, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-163-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In a warmer climate, the winter extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic basin are expected to have a larger footprint of strong winds. Dynamical changes at different altitudes are responsible for these wind changes. Based on backward trajectories using the CESM-LE simulations, we show that the diabatic processes gain relevance as the planet warms. For instance, changes in the radiative processes will play an important role in the upper-level cyclone dynamics.
Yuan-Bing Zhao, Nedjeljka Žagar, Frank Lunkeit, and Richard Blender
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 833–852, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-833-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-833-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Coupled climate models have significant biases in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST). Our study shows that the TIO SST biases can affect the simulated global atmospheric circulation and its spatio-temporal variability on large scales. The response of the spatial variability is related to the amplitude or phase of the circulation bias, depending on the flow regime and spatial scale, while the response of the interannual variability depends on the sign of the SST bias.
Victoria A. Sinclair and Jennifer L. Catto
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 567–589, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-567-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-567-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We studied the relationship between the strength of mid-latitude cyclones and their precipitation, how this may change in the future, and whether it depends of the type of cyclone. The relationship between cyclone strength and precipitation increases in warmer climates and depends strongly on the type of cyclone. For some cyclone types there is no relation between cyclone strength and precipitation. For all cyclone types, precipitation increases with uniform warming and polar amplification.
Koffi Worou, Thierry Fichefet, and Hugues Goosse
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 511–530, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-511-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-511-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Atlantic equatorial mode (AEM) of variability is partly responsible for the year-to-year rainfall variability over the Guinea coast. We used the current climate models to explore the present-day and future links between the AEM and the extreme rainfall indices over the Guinea coast. Under future global warming, the total variability of the extreme rainfall indices increases over the Guinea coast. However, the future impact of the AEM on extreme rainfall events decreases over the region.
Hanna Joos, Michael Sprenger, Hanin Binder, Urs Beyerle, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 133–155, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-133-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are strongly ascending, cloud- and precipitation-forming airstreams in extratropical cyclones. In this study we assess their representation in a climate simulation and their changes under global warming. They become moister, become more intense, and reach higher altitudes in a future climate, implying that they potentially have an increased impact on the mid-latitude flow.
Hanin Binder, Hanna Joos, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 19–37, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-19-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-19-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are the main cloud- and precipitation-producing airstreams in extratropical cyclones. The latent heat release that occurs during cloud formation often contributes to the intensification of the associated cyclone. Based on the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble coupled climate simulations, we show that WCBs and associated latent heating will become stronger in a future climate and be even more important for explosive cyclone intensification than in the present.
Davide Faranda, Stella Bourdin, Mireia Ginesta, Meriem Krouma, Robin Noyelle, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1311–1340, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze the atmospheric circulation leading to impactful extreme events for the calendar year 2021 such as the Storm Filomena, Westphalia floods, Hurricane Ida and Medicane Apollo. For some of the events, we find that climate change has contributed to their occurrence or enhanced their intensity; for other events, we find that they are unprecedented. Our approach underscores the importance of considering changes in the atmospheric circulation when performing attribution studies.
James M. Done, Gary M. Lackmann, and Andreas F. Prein
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 693–711, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-693-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-693-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We know that warm oceans generally favour tropical cyclones (TCs). Less is known about the role of air temperature above the oceans extending into the lower stratosphere. Our global analysis of historical records and computer simulations suggests that TCs strengthen in response to historical temperature change while also being influenced by other environmental factors. Ocean warming drives much of the strengthening, with relatively small contributions from temperature changes aloft.
Philipp Breul, Paulo Ceppi, and Theodore G. Shepherd
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 645–658, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-645-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-645-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding how the mid-latitude jet stream will respond to a changing climate is highly important. Unfortunately, climate models predict a wide variety of possible responses. Theoretical frameworks can link an internal jet variability timescale to its response. However, we show that stratospheric influence approximately doubles the internal timescale, inflating predicted responses. We demonstrate an approach to account for the stratospheric influence and recover correct response predictions.
Sebastian Schemm, Lukas Papritz, and Gwendal Rivière
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 601–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-601-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-601-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Much of the change in our daily weather patterns is due to the development and intensification of extratropical cyclones. The response of these systems to climate change is an important topic of ongoing research. This study is the first to reproduce the changes in the North Atlantic circulation and extratropical cyclone characteristics found in fully coupled Earth system models under high-CO2 scenarios, but in an idealized, reduced-complexity simulation with uniform warming.
Edgar Dolores-Tesillos, Franziska Teubler, and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 429–448, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-429-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-429-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Strong winds caused by extratropical cyclones represent a costly hazard for European countries. Here, based on CESM-LENS coupled climate simulations, we show that future changes of such strong winds are characterized by an increased magnitude and extended footprint southeast of the cyclone center. This intensification is related to a combination of increased diabatic heating and changes in upper-level wave dynamics.
Sara Bacer, Fatima Jomaa, Julien Beaumet, Hubert Gallée, Enzo Le Bouëdec, Martin Ménégoz, and Chantal Staquet
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 377–389, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-377-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-377-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We study the impact of climate change on wintertime atmospheric blocking over Europe. We focus on the frequency, duration, and size of blocking events. The blocking events are identified via the weather type decomposition methodology. We find that blocking frequency, duration, and size are mostly stationary over the 21st century. Additionally, we compare the blocking size results with the size of the blocking events identified via a different approach using a blocking index.
Roman Brogli, Silje Lund Sørland, Nico Kröner, and Christoph Schär
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1093–1110, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1093-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1093-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In a warmer future climate, climate simulations predict that some land areas will experience excessive warming during summer. We show that the excessive summer warming is related to the vertical distribution of warming within the atmosphere. In regions characterized by excessive warming, much of the warming occurs close to the surface. In other regions, most of the warming is redistributed to higher levels in the atmosphere, which weakens the surface warming.
Gustav Strandberg and Petter Lind
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 181–204, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-181-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-181-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation is a key climate variable with a large impact on society but also difficult to simulate as it depends largely on temporal and spatial scales. We look here at the effect of model resolution on precipitation in Europe, from coarse-scale global model to small-scale regional models. Higher resolution improves simulated precipitation generally, but individual models may over- or underestimate precipitation even at higher resolution.
Dor Sandler and Nili Harnik
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 427–443, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-427-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-427-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The circumglobal teleconnection pattern (CTP) is a wavy pattern of wintertime midlatitude subseasonal flow. It is also linked to various extreme weather events. The CTP is predicted to play a prominent role in future climate. We find that for future projections, most CMIP5 models predict that the CTP will develop a
preferredphase. Our work establishes that the CTP-like climate change signature is in fact comprised of several regional effects, partly due to shifts in CTP phase distributions.
Andreas Chrysanthou, Amanda C. Maycock, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 155–174, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-155-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-155-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We perform 50-year-long time-slice experiments using the Met Office HadGEM3 global climate model in order to decompose the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) response to an abrupt quadrupling of CO2 in three distinct components, (a) the rapid adjustment, associated with CO2 radiative effects; (b) a global uniform sea surface temperature warming; and (c) sea surface temperature patterns. This demonstrates a potential for fast and slow timescales of the response of the BDC to greenhouse gas forcing.
Matthias Röthlisberger, Michael Sprenger, Emmanouil Flaounas, Urs Beyerle, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 45–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-45-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-45-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we quantify how much the coldest, middle and hottest third of all days during extremely hot summers contribute to their respective seasonal mean anomaly. This
extreme-summer substructurevaries substantially across the Northern Hemisphere and is directly related to the local physical drivers of extreme summers. Furthermore, comparing re-analysis (i.e. measurement-based) and climate model extreme-summer substructures reveals a remarkable level of agreement.
Cited articles
Abalos, M., Polvani, L., Calvo, N., Kinnison, D., Ploeger, F., Randel, W., and Solomon, S.: New Insights on the Impact of Ozone-Depleting Substances on the Brewer–Dobson Circulation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 2435–2451, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029301, 2019. a, b
Amos, M., Young, P. J., Hosking, J. S., Lamarque, J.-F., Abraham, N. L.,
Akiyoshi, H., Archibald, A. T., Bekki, S., Deushi, M., Jöckel, P.,
Kinnison, D., Kirner, O., Kunze, M., Marchand, M., Plummer, D. A.,
Saint-Martin, D., Sudo, K., Tilmes, S., and Yamashita, Y.: Projecting ozone
hole recovery using an ensemble of chemistry–climate models weighted by
model performance and independence, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9961–9977, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9961-2020, 2020. a, b
Andrews, D. G., Holton, J. R., and Leovy, C. B.: Middle Atmosphere Dynamics,
in: vol. 40 of International Geophysics Serie, Academic Press, ISBN 9780120585762, 1987. a
Armour, K. C., Marshall, J., Scott, J. R., Donohoe, A., and Newsom, E. R.:
Southern Ocean warming delayed by circumpolar upwelling and equatorward
transport, Nat. Geosci., 9, 549–554, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2731, 2016. a
Banerjee, A., Fyfe, J. C., Polvani, L. M., Waugh, D., and Chang, K.-L.: A
pause in Southern Hemisphere circulation trends due to the Montreal Protocol, Nature, 579, 544–548, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2120-4, 2020. a, b
Barnes, E. A., Barnes, N. W., and Polvani, L. M.: Delayed Southern Hemisphere
Climate Change Induced by Stratospheric Ozone Recovery, as Projected by the
CMIP5 Models, J. Climate, 27, 852–867, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00246.1, 2014. a
Beal, L. M. and Elipot, S.: Broadening not strengthening of the Agulhas Current since the early 1990s, Nature, 540, 570–573, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature19853, 2016. a
Biastoch, A., Böning, C. W., and Lutjeharms, J. R. E.: Agulhas leakage dynamics affects decadal variability in Atlantic overturning circulation,
Nature, 456, 489–492, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature07426, 2008. a, b
Biastoch, A., Böning, C. W., Schwarzkopf, F. U., and Lutjeharms, J. R. E.: Increase in Agulhas leakage due to poleward shift of Southern Hemisphere
westerlies, Nature, 462, 495–498, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08519, 2009. a, b, c
Biastoch, A., Durgadoo, J. V., Morrison, A. K., van Sebille, E., Weijer, W.,
and Griffies, S. M.: Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation covaries with Agulhas
leakage, Nat. Commun., 6, 10082, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms10082, 2015. a, b, c
Bishop, S. P., Gent, P. R., Bryan, F. O., Thompson, A. F., Long, M. C., and
Abernathey, R.: Southern Ocean Overturning Compensation in an Eddy-Resolving
Climate Simulation, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 46, 1575–1592,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-15-0177.1, 2016. a, b
Bitz, C. M. and Polvani, L. M.: Antarctic climate response to stratospheric
ozone depletion in a fine resolution ocean climate model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L20705, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053393, 2012. a
Blanke, B. and Raynaud, S.: Kinematics of the Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent: An Eulerian and Lagrangian Approach from GCM Results, J. Phys.
Oceanogr., 27, 1038–1053, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1997)027<1038:KOTPEU>2.0.CO;2, 1997. a
Blanke, B., Arhan, M., Madec, G., and Roche, S.: Warm Water Paths in the
Equatorial Atlantic as Diagnosed with a General Circulation Model, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 29, 2753–2768,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1999)029<2753:WWPITE>2.0.CO;2, 1999. a
Böning, C. W., Dispert, A., Visbeck, M., Rintoul, S. R., and Schwarzkopf, F. U.: The response of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current to recent climate
change, Nat. Geosci., 1, 864–869, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo362, 2008. a
Bracegirdle, T. J., Krinner, G., Tonelli, M., Haumann, F. A., Naughten, K. A., Rackow, T., Roach, L. A., and Wainer, I.: Twenty first century changes in
Antarctic and Southern Ocean surface climate in CMIP6, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 21, e984, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.984, 2020. a, b, c
Brovkin, V., Raddatz, T., Reick, C. H., Claussen, M., and Gayler, V.: Global
biogeophysical interactions between forest and climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07405, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL037543, 2009. a
Cheng, Y., Putrasahan, D., Beal, L., and Kirtman, B.: Quantifying Agulhas
Leakage in a High-Resolution Climate Model, J. Climate, 29, 6881–6892, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0568.1, 2016. a, b
Cheng, Y., Beal, L. M., Kirtman, B. P., and Putrasahan, D.: Interannual Agulhas Leakage Variability and Its Regional Climate Imprints, J. Climate, 31, 10105–10121, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0647.1, 2018. a, b, c
Chiodo, G. and Polvani, L. M.: Reduction of Climate Sensitivity to Solar
Forcing due to Stratospheric Ozone Feedback, J. Climate, 29, 4651–4663, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0721.1, 2016. a, b, c
Chiodo, G., Polvani, L. M., Marsh, D. R., Stenke, A., Ball, W., Rozanov, E.,
Muthers, S., and Tsigaridis, K.: The Response of the Ozone Layer to Quadrupled CO2 Concentrations, J. Climate, 31, 3893–3907,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0492.1, 2018. a, b
Chipperfield, M. P., Bekki, S., Dhomse, S., Harris, N. R. P., Hossaini, R.,
Steinbrecht, W., Thiéblemont, R., and Weber, M.: Detecting recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer, Nature, 549, 211–218, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature23681, 2017. a, b
Chrysanthou, A., Maycock, A. C., and Chipperfield, M. P.: Decomposing the
response of the stratospheric Brewer–Dobson circulation to an abrupt
quadrupling in CO2, Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 155–174,
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-155-2020, 2020. a, b
Cunningham, S. A., Alderson, S. G., King, B. A., and Brandon, M. A.: Transport and variability of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in Drake Passage, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 108, 8084, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JC001147, 2003. a
Daher, H., Beal, L. M., and Schwarzkopf, F. U.: A New Improved Estimation of
Agulhas Leakage Using Observations and Simulations of Lagrangian Floats and
Drifters, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 125, e2019JC015753, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015753, 2020. a
Debreu, L., Vouland, C., and Blayo, E.: AGRIF: Adaptive grid refinement in
Fortran, Comput. Geosci., 34, 8–13, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2007.01.009, 2008. a
Dhomse, S. S., Kinnison, D., Chipperfield, M. P., Salawitch, R. J., Cionni, I., Hegglin, M. I., Abraham, N. L., Akiyoshi, H., Archibald, A. T., Bednarz,
E. M., Bekki, S., Braesicke, P., Butchart, N., Dameris, M., Deushi, M., Frith, S., Hardiman, S. C., Hassler, B., Horowitz, L. W., Hu, R.-M.,
Jöckel, P., Josse, B., Kirner, O., Kremser, S., Langematz, U., Lewis, J.,
Marchand, M., Lin, M., Mancini, E., Marécal, V., Michou, M., Morgenstern,
O., O'Connor, F. M., Oman, L., Pitari, G., Plummer, D. A., Pyle, J. A.,
Revell, L. E., Rozanov, E., Schofield, R., Stenke, A., Stone, K., Sudo, K.,
Tilmes, S., Visioni, D., Yamashita, Y., and Zeng, G.: Estimates of ozone
return dates from Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative simulations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8409–8438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8409-2018, 2018. a, b, c, d
Dickinson, R. E.: Planetary Rossby Waves Propagating Vertically Through Weak
Westerly Wind Wave Guides, J. Atmos. Sci., 25, 984–1002,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1968)025<0984:PRWPVT>2.0.CO;2, 1968. a
Donners, J. and Drijfhout, S. S.: The Lagrangian View of South Atlantic
Interocean Exchange in a Global Ocean Model Compared with Inverse Model
Results, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 34, 1019–1035,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(2004)034<1019:TLVOSA>2.0.CO;2, 2004. a
Donohue, K. A., Tracey, K. L., Watts, D. R., Chidichimo, M. P., and Chereskin, T. K.: Mean Antarctic Circumpolar Current transport measured in Drake Passage, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 11760–11767,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070319, 2016. a
Downes, S. M. and Hogg, A. M.: Southern Ocean Circulation and Eddy Compensation in CMIP5 Models, J. Climate, 26, 7198–7220,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00504.1, 2013. a, b, c, d
Eyring, V., Cionni, I., Lamarque, J. F., Akiyoshi, H., Bodeker, G. E.,
Charlton-Perez, A. J., Frith, S. M., Gettelman, A., Kinnison, D. E., Nakamura, T., Oman, L. D., Pawson, S., and Yamashita, Y.: Sensitivity of 21st century stratospheric ozone to greenhouse gas scenarios, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 37, L16807, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044443, 2010. a, b
Eyring, V., Arblaster, J. M., Cionni, I., Sedláček, J., Perlwitz, J., Young,
P. J., Bekki, S., Bergmann, D., Cameron-Smith, P., Collins, W. J., Faluvegi,
G., Gottschaldt, K.-D., Horowitz, L. W., Kinnison, D. E., Lamarque, J.-F.,
Marsh, D. R., Saint-Martin, D., Shindell, D. T., Sudo, K., Szopa, S., and
Watanabe, S.: Long-term ozone changes and associated climate impacts in CMIP5
simulations, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 5029–5060, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50316, 2013. a
Farneti, R., Delworth, T. L., Rosati, A. J., Griffies, S. M., and Zeng, F.: The Role of Mesoscale Eddies in the Rectification of the Southern Ocean Response to Climate Change, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 40, 1539–1557,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JPO4353.1, 2010. a, b, c, d
Farneti, R., Downes, S. M., Griffies, S. M., Marsland, S. J., Behrens, E.,
Bentsen, M., Bi, D., Biastoch, A., Böning, C., Bozec, A., Canuto, V. M.,
Chassignet, E., Danabasoglu, G., Danilov, S., Diansky, N., Drange, H., Fogli,
P. G., Gusev, A., Hallberg, R. W., Howard, A., Ilicak, M., Jung, T., Kelley,
M., Large, W. G., Leboissetier, A., Long, M., Lu, J., Masina, S., Mishra, A.,
Navarra, A., George Nurser, A., Patara, L., Samuels, B. L., Sidorenko, D.,
Tsujino, H., Uotila, P., Wang, Q., and Yeager, S. G.: An assessment of
Antarctic Circumpolar Current and Southern Ocean meridional overturning
circulation during 1958–2007 in a suite of interannual CORE-II simulations,
Ocean Model., 93, 84–120, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2015.07.009, 2015. a
Fichefet, T. and Maqueda, M. A. M.: Sensitivity of a global sea ice model to
the treatment of ice thermodynamics and dynamics, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 102, 12609–12646, https://doi.org/10.1029/97JC00480, 1997. a
Fyfe, J. C. and Saenko, O. A.: Simulated changes in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere winds and currents, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L06701,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL025332, 2006. a
Gent, P. R. and Mcwilliams, J. C.: Isopycnal Mixing in Ocean Circulation
Models, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 20, 150–155,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1990)020<0150:IMIOCM>2.0.CO;2, 1990. a, b
Gerber, E. P. and Son, S.-W.: Quantifying the Summertime Response of the
Austral Jet Stream and Hadley Cell to Stratospheric Ozone and Greenhouse Gases, J. Climate, 27, 5538–5559, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00539.1, 2014. a
Gillett, N. P. and Thompson, D. W. J.: Simulation of Recent Southern Hemisphere Climate Change, Science, 302, 273–275, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1087440, 2003. a, b
Gong, D. and Wang, S.: Definition of Antarctic Oscillation index, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 459–462, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL900003, 1999. a
Gordon, A. L., Weiss, R. F., Smethie Jr., W. M., and Warner, M. J.: Thermocline and intermediate water communication between the south Atlantic and Indian oceans, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 97, 7223–7240,
https://doi.org/10.1029/92JC00485, 1992. a
Grytsai, A. V., Evtushevsky, O. M., Agapitov, O. V., Klekociuk, A. R., and Milinevsky, G. P.: Structure and long-term change in the zonal asymmetry in Antarctic total ozone during spring, Ann. Geophys., 25, 361–374, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-25-361-2007, 2007. a
Haase, S., Fricke, J., Kruschke, T., Wahl, S., and Matthes, K.: Sensitivity of the southern hemisphere tropospheric jet response to Antarctic ozone
depletion: prescribed versus interactive chemistry, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14043–14061, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14043-2020, 2020. a, b
Haigh, J. D. and Pyle, J. A.: Ozone perturbation experiments in a two-dimensional circulation model, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 108, 551–574, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49710845705, 1982. a, b, c
Hegglin, M., Kinnison, D., Lamarque, J.-F., and Plummer, D.: CCMI ozone in
support of CMIP6 – version 1.0, ESGF, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/input4MIPs.1115, 2016. a
Hogg, A. M., Meredith, M. P., Chambers, D. P., Abrahamsen, E. P., Hughes, C. W., and Morrison, A. K.: Recent trends in the Southern Ocean eddy field, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 120, 257–267, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JC010470, 2015. a
Iglesias-Suarez, F., Young, P. J., and Wild, O.: Stratospheric ozone change and related climate impacts over 1850–2100 as modelled by the ACCMIP ensemble, Atmos.Chem. Phys., 16, 343–363, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-343-2016, 2016. a
Ivanciu, I.: FOCI model output used in the study by Ivanciu et al. – Twenty-first century Southern Hemisphere impacts of ozone recovery and
climate change from the stratosphere to the ocean, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5013716, 2021. a
Jonsson, A. I., de Grandpré, J., Fomichev, V. I., McConnell, J. C., and
Beagley, S. R.: Doubled CO2-induced cooling in the middle atmosphere: Photochemical analysis of the ozone radiative feedback, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 109, D24103, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005093, 2004. a, b
Kang, S. M., Polvani, L. M., Fyfe, J. C., and Sigmond, M.: Impact of Polar
Ozone Depletion on Subtropical Precipitation, Science, 332, 951–954,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1202131, 2011. a
Karpechko, A. Y., Gillett, N. P., Gray, L. J., and Dall'Amico, M.: Influence of ozone recovery and greenhouse gas increases on Southern Hemisphere
circulation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 115, D22117,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014423, 2010. a, b, c, d
Keeble, J., Braesicke, P., Abraham, N. L., Roscoe, H. K., and Pyle, J. A.: The impact of polar stratospheric ozone loss on Southern Hemisphere stratospheric circulation and climate, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 13705–13717, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13705-2014, 2014. a, b
Kinnison, D. E., Brasseur, G. P., Walters, S., Garcia, R. R., Marsh, D. R.,
Sassi, F., Harvey, V. L., Randall, C. E., Emmons, L., Lamarque, J. F., Hess,
P., Orlando, J. J., Tie, X. X., Randel, W., Pan, L. L., Gettelman, A., Granier, C., Diehl, T., Niemeier, U., and Simmons, A. J.: Sensitivity of
chemical tracers to meteorological parameters in the MOZART-3 chemical
transport model, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 112, D20302, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007879, 2007. a
Kushner, P. J., Held, I. M., and Delworth, T. L.: Southern Hemisphere
Atmospheric Circulation Response to Global Warming, J. Climate, 14, 2238–2249, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<0001:SHACRT>2.0.CO;2, 2001. a
Langematz, U., Kunze, M., Krüger, K., Labitzke, K., and Roff, G. L.: Thermal and dynamical changes of the stratosphere since 1979 and their link to ozone and CO2 changes, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 108, ACL 9-1–ACL 9-13, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002069, 2003. a
Le Bars, D., Durgadoo, J. V., Dijkstra, H. A., Biastoch, A., and De Ruijter, W. P. M.: An observed 20-year time series of Agulhas leakage, Ocean Sci., 10,
601–609, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-601-2014, 2014. a
Li, F., Austin, J., and Wilson, J.: The Strength of the Brewer–Dobson
Circulation in a Changing Climate: Coupled Chemistry-Climate Model Simulations, J. Climate, 21, 40–57, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1663.1, 2008. a
Li, F., Newman, P. A., and Stolarski, R. S.: Relationships between the
Brewer–Dobson circulation and the southern annular mode during austral summer in coupled chemistry-climate model simulations, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 115, D15106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012876, 2010. a
Li, F., Vikhliaev, Y. V., Newman, P. A., Pawson, S., Perlwitz, J., Waugh,
D. W., and Douglass, A. R.: Impacts of Interactive Stratospheric Chemistry on
Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate Change in the Goddard Earth Observing
System, Version 5 (GEOS-5), J. Climate, 29, 3199–3218,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0572.1, 2016. a, b, c, d
Li, S., Liu, W., Lyu, K., and Zhang, X.: The effects of historical ozone
changes on Southern Ocean heat uptake and storage, Clim. Dynam., 57, 2269–2285, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05803-y, 2021. a, b, c, d
Lin, P. and Fu, Q.: Changes in various branches of the Brewer–Dobson
circulation from an ensemble of chemistry climate models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 73–84, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD018813, 2013. a, b, c
Loveday, B. R., Durgadoo, J. V., Reason, C. J. C., Biastoch, A., and Penven,
P.: Decoupling of the Agulhas Leakage from the Agulhas Current, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 44, 1776–1797, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-13-093.1, 2014. a
Lübbecke, J. F., Durgadoo, J. V., and Biastoch, A.: Contribution of Increased Agulhas Leakage to Tropical Atlantic Warming, J. Climate, 28, 9697–9706, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0258.1, 2015. a, b
Madec, G. and the NEMO team: NEMO ocean engine – version 3.6, Note du Pôle de modélisation, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3248739, 2016. a
Matthes, K., Funke, B., Andersson, M. E., Barnard, L., Beer, J., Charbonneau,
P., Clilverd, M. A., Dudok de Wit, T., Haberreiter, M., Hendry, A., Jackman,
C. H., Kretzschmar, M., Kruschke, T., Kunze, M., Langematz, U., Marsh, D. R.,
Maycock, A. C., Misios, S., Rodger, C. J., Scaife, A. A., Seppälä, A., Shangguan, M., Sinnhuber, M., Tourpali, K., Usoskin, I., van de Kamp, M.,
Verronen, P. T., and Versick, S.: Solar forcing for CMIP6 (v3.2), Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2247–2302, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2247-2017, 2017. a
Matthes, K., Biastoch, A., Wahl, S., Harlaß, J., Martin, T., Brücher, T., Drews, A., Ehlert, D., Getzlaff, K., Krüger, F., Rath, W., Scheinert, M., Schwarzkopf, F. U., Bayr, T., Schmidt, H., and Park, W.: The Flexible Ocean and Climate Infrastructure version 1 (FOCI1): mean state and variability, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2533–2568, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2533-2020, 2020. a, b, c
McLandress, C., Jonsson, A. I., Plummer, D. A., Reader, M. C., Scinocca, J. F., and Shepherd, T. G.: Separating the Dynamical Effects of Climate Change and Ozone Depletion. Part I: Southern Hemisphere Stratosphere, J. Climate, 23, 5002–5020, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3586.1, 2010. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k
McLandress, C., Shepherd, T. G., Scinocca, J. F., Plummer, D. A., Sigmond, M., Jonsson, A. I., and Reader, M. C.: Separating the Dynamical Effects of
Climate Change and Ozone Depletion. Part II: Southern Hemisphere Troposphere, J. Climate, 24, 1850–1868, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3958.1, 2011. a, b, c
Meijers, A. J. S., Shuckburgh, E., Bruneau, N., Sallee, J.-B., Bracegirdle, T. J., and Wang, Z.: Representation of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in
the CMIP5 climate models and future changes under warming scenarios, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 117, C12008, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JC008412, 2012. a, b
Meinshausen, M., Nicholls, Z. R. J., Lewis, J., Gidden, M. J., Vogel, E.,
Freund, M., Beyerle, U., Gessner, C., Nauels, A., Bauer, N., Canadell, J. G.,
Daniel, J. S., John, A., Krummel, P. B., Luderer, G., Meinshausen, N.,
Montzka, S. A., Rayner, P. J., Reimann, S., Smith, S. J., van den Berg, M.,
Velders, G. J. M., Vollmer, M. K., and Wang, R. H. J.: The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their
extensions to 2500, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3571–3605,
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020, 2020. a
Min, S.-K. and Son, S.-W.: Multimodel attribution of the Southern Hemisphere
Hadley cell widening: Major role of ozone depletion, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 3007–3015, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50232, 2013. a
Morgenstern, O., Zeng, G., Dean, S. M., Joshi, M., Abraham, N. L., and Osprey, A.: Direct and ozone-mediated forcing of the Southern Annular Mode by
greenhouse gases, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 9050–9057, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062140, 2014. a, b, c
Morgenstern, O., Stone, K. A., Schofield, R., Akiyoshi, H., Yamashita, Y.,
Kinnison, D. E., Garcia, R. R., Sudo, K., Plummer, D. A., Scinocca, J., Oman,
L. D., Manyin, M. E., Zeng, G., Rozanov, E., Stenke, A., Revell, L. E.,
Pitari, G., Mancini, E., Di Genova, G., Visioni, D., Dhomse, S. S., and
Chipperfield, M. P.: Ozone sensitivity to varying greenhouse gases and
ozone-depleting substances in CCMI-1 simulations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 1091–1114, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1091-2018, 2018. a, b, c
Morrison, A. K. and Hogg, A. M.: On the Relationship between Southern Ocean
Overturning and ACC Transport, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 43, 140–148, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-12-057.1, 2013. a, b, c
Neely, R. R., Marsh, D. R., Smith, K. L., Davis, S. M., and Polvani, L. M.:
Biases in southern hemisphere climate trends induced by coarsely specifying
the temporal resolution of stratospheric ozone, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 8602–8610, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061627, 2014. a, b
Oberländer, S., Langematz, U., and Meul, S.: Unraveling impact factors for future changes in the Brewer-Dobson circulation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 10296–10312, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50775, 2013. a, b, c, d
Oberländer-Hayn, S., Meul, S., Langematz, U., Abalichin, J., and Haenel, F.: A chemistry-climate model study of past changes in the Brewer–Dobson
circulation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 6742–6757,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022843, 2015. a
Oke, P. R. and England, M. H.: Oceanic Response to Changes in the Latitude of
the Southern Hemisphere Subpolar Westerly Winds, J. Climate, 17, 1040–1054, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<1040:ORTCIT>2.0.CO;2, 2004. a
Oman, L., Waugh, D. W., Pawson, S., Stolarski, R. S., and Newman, P. A.: On the influence of anthropogenic forcings on changes in the stratospheric mean age, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 114, D03105, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010378, 2009. a, b, c
Patara, L., Böning, C. W., and Biastoch, A.: Variability and trends in
Southern Ocean eddy activity in ∘ ocean model simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 4517–4523, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069026, 2016. a
Plumb, R. A.: On the Three-Dimensional Propagation of Stationary Waves, J. Atmos. Sci., 42, 217–229,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1985)042<0217:OTTDPO>2.0.CO;2, 1985. a, b
Polvani, L. M., Previdi, M., and Deser, C.: Large cancellation, due to ozone
recovery, of future Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation trends,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L04707, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL046712, 2011a. a, b, c
Polvani, L. M., Waugh, D. W., Correa, G. J. P., and Son, S.-W.: Stratospheric
Ozone Depletion: The Main Driver of Twentieth-Century Atmospheric Circulation
Changes in the Southern Hemisphere, J. Climate, 24, 795–812,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3772.1, 2011b. a, b, c
Polvani, L. M., Abalos, M., Garcia, R., Kinnison, D., and Randel, W. J.:
Significant Weakening of Brewer-Dobson Circulation Trends Over the 21st Century as a Consequence of the Montreal Protocol, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 401–409, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075345, 2018. a, b, c, d
Polvani, L. M., Wang, L., Abalos, M., Butchart, N., Chipperfield, M. P.,
Dameris, M., Deushi, M., Dhomse, S. S., Jöckel, P., Kinnison, D., Michou,
M., Morgenstern, O., Oman, L. D., Plummer, D. A., and Stone, K. A.: Large
Impacts, Past and Future, of Ozone-Depleting Substances on Brewer-Dobson
Circulation Trends: A Multimodel Assessment, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 6669–6680, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029516, 2019. a, b, c
Portmann, R. W. and Solomon, S.: Indirect radiative forcing of the ozone layer during the 21st century, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L02813,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028252, 2007. a
Previdi, M. and Polvani, L. M.: Climate system response to stratospheric ozone depletion and recovery, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 140, 2401–2419, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2330, 2014. a
Reick, C. H., Raddatz, T., Brovkin, V., and Gayler, V.: Representation of
natural and anthropogenic land cover change in MPI-ESM, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 5, 459–482, https://doi.org/10.1002/jame.20022, 2013. a
Richardson, P. L.: Agulhas leakage into the Atlantic estimated with subsurface floats and surface drifters, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. I, 54, 1361–1389, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr.2007.04.010, 2007. a
Rouault, M., Penven, P., and Pohl, B.: Warming in the Agulhas Current system
since the 1980's, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L12602, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL037987, 2009. a, b
Rühs, S., Durgadoo, J. V., Behrens, E., and Biastoch, A.: Advective timescales and pathways of Agulhas leakage, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40,
3997–4000, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50782, 2013. a
Rühs, S., Schwarzkopf, F. U., Speich, S., and Biastoch, A.: Cold vs. warm
water route – sources for the upper limb of the Atlantic Meridional
Overturning Circulation revisited in a high-resolution ocean model, Ocean
Sci., 15, 489–512, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-489-2019, 2019. a
Sassi, F., Boville, B. A., Kinnison, D., and Garcia, R. R.: The effects of
interactive ozone chemistry on simulations of the middle atmosphere, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L07811, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL022131, 2005. a
Schwarzkopf, F. U., Biastoch, A., Böning, C. W., Chanut, J., Durgadoo, J. V., Getzlaff, K., Harlaß, J., Rieck, J. K., Roth, C., Scheinert, M. M., and Schubert, R.: The INALT family – a set of high-resolution nests for the
Agulhas Current system within global NEMO ocean/sea-ice configurations, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3329–3355, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3329-2019, 2019. a, b, c, d, e, f
Seviour, W. J. M., Codron, F., Doddridge, E. W., Ferreira, D., Gnanadesikan,
A., Kelley, M., Kostov, Y., Marshall, J., Polvani, L. M., Thomas, J. L., and
Waugh, D. W.: The Southern Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Response to Ozone
Depletion: A Multimodel Comparison, J. Climate, 32, 5107–5121,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0109.1, 2019. a
Shepherd, T. G. and McLandress, C.: A Robust Mechanism for Strengthening of the Brewer–Dobson Circulation in Response to Climate Change: Critical-Layer
Control of Subtropical Wave Breaking, J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 784–797, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JAS3608.1, 2011. a, b
Shindell, D. T. and Schmidt, G. A.: Southern Hemisphere climate response to
ozone changes and greenhouse gas increases, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L18209, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL020724, 2004. a, b
Sigmond, M., Reader, M. C., Fyfe, J. C., and Gillett, N. P.: Drivers of past
and future Southern Ocean change: Stratospheric ozone versus greenhouse gas
impacts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L12601, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047120, 2011. a, b
Solomon, A., Polvani, L. M., Smith, K. L., and Abernathey, R. P.: The impact of ozone depleting substances on the circulation, temperature, and salinity of the Southern Ocean: An attribution study with CESM1(WACCM), Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 5547–5555, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064744, 2015. a, b, c, d, e
Solomon, S., Kinnison, D., Bandoro, J., and Garcia, R.: Simulation of polar
ozone depletion: An update, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 7958–7974, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023365, 2015.
Solomon, S., Ivy, D. J., Kinnison, D., Mills, M. J., Neely, R. R., and Schmidt, A.: Emergence of healing in the Antarctic ozone layer, Science, 353,
269–274, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aae0061, 2016. a
Solomon, S., Ivy, D., Gupta, M., Bandoro, J., Santer, B., Fu, Q., Lin, P.,
Garcia, R. R., Kinnison, D., and Mills, M.: Mirrored changes in Antarctic
ozone and stratospheric temperature in the late 20th versus early 21st centuries, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 122, 8940–8950,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD026719, 2017. a
Son, S.-W., Polvani, L. M., Waugh, D. W., Akiyoshi, H., Garcia, R., Kinnison,
D., Pawson, S., Rozanov, E., Shepherd, T. G., and Shibata, K.: The Impact of
Stratospheric Ozone Recovery on the Southern Hemisphere Westerly Jet, Science, 320, 1486–1489, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1155939, 2008. a, b
Son, S.-W., Tandon, N. F., Polvani, L. M., and Waugh, D. W.: Ozone hole and
Southern Hemisphere climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L15705, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL038671, 2009. a, b
Son, S.-W., Gerber, E. P., Perlwitz, J., Polvani, L. M., Gillett, N. P., Seo,
K.-H., Eyring, V., Shepherd, T. G., Waugh, D., Akiyoshi, H., Austin, J.,
Baumgaertner, A., Bekki, S., Braesicke, P., Brühl, C., Butchart, N.,
Chipperfield, M. P., Cugnet, D., Dameris, M., Dhomse, S., Frith, S., Garny,
H., Garcia, R., Hardiman, S. C., Jöckel, P., Lamarque, J. F., Mancini, E., Marchand, M., Michou, M., Nakamura, T., Morgenstern, O., Pitari, G., Plummer, D. A., Pyle, J., Rozanov, E., Scinocca, J. F., Shibata, K., Smale, D., Teyssèdre, H., Tian, W., and Yamashita, Y.: Impact of stratospheric ozone on Southern Hemisphere circulation change: A multimodel assessment, J.
Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 115, D00M07, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014271, 2010. a, b
Stevens, B., Giorgetta, M., Esch, M., Mauritsen, T., Crueger, T., Rast, S.,
Salzmann, M., Schmidt, H., Bader, J., Block, K., Brokopf, R., Fast, I.,
Kinne, S., Kornblueh, L., Lohmann, U., Pincus, R., Reichler, T., and Roeckner, E.: Atmospheric component of the MPI-M Earth System Model: ECHAM6,
J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 5, 146–172, https://doi.org/10.1002/jame.20015, 2013. a
Storch, H. V. and Zwiers, F. W.: Statistical Analysis in Climate Research,
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511612336, 1999. a
Thompson, D. W. J. and Solomon, S.: Interpretation of Recent Southern
Hemisphere Climate Change, Science, 296, 895–899, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1069270, 2002. a, b
Thompson, D. W. J., Solomon, S., Kushner, P. J., England, M. H., Grise, K. M., and Karoly, D. J.: Signatures of the Antarctic ozone hole in Southern
Hemisphere surface climate change, Nat. Geosci., 4, 741–749, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1296, 2011. a, b
Treguier, A. M., Held, I. M., and Larichev, V. D.: Parameterization of
Quasigeostrophic Eddies in Primitive Equation Ocean Models, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 27, 567–580, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1997)027<0567:POQEIP>2.0.CO;2, 1997. a
van Sebille, E., Biastoch, A., van Leeuwen, P. J., and de Ruijter, W. P. M.: A weaker Agulhas Current leads to more Agulhas leakage, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L03601, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL036614, 2009. a
Viebahn, J. and Eden, C.: Towards the impact of eddies on the response of the
Southern Ocean to climate change, Ocean Model., 34, 150–165,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2010.05.005, 2010. a
Waugh, D. W., Randel, W. J., Pawson, S., Newman, P. A., and Nash, E. R.:
Persistence of the lower stratospheric polar vortices, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 104, 27191–27201, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999JD900795, 1999.
a
Waugh, D. W., Oman, L., Kawa, S. R., Stolarski, R. S., Pawson, S., Douglass,
A. R., Newman, P. A., and Nielsen, J. E.: Impacts of climate change on
stratospheric ozone recovery, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L03805,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL036223, 2009a. a, b
Waugh, D. W., Oman, L., Newman, P. A., Stolarski, R. S., Pawson, S., Nielsen,
J. E., and Perlwitz, J.: Effect of zonal asymmetries in stratospheric ozone
on simulated Southern Hemisphere climate trends, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L18701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040419, 2009b. a
Waugh, D. W., Primeau, F., DeVries, T., and Holzer, M.: Recent Changes in the
Ventilation of the Southern Oceans, Science, 339, 568–570,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1225411, 2013. a
Waugh, D. W., Garfinkel, C. I., and Polvani, L. M.: Drivers of the Recent
Tropical Expansion in the Southern Hemisphere: Changing SSTs or Ozone
Depletion?, J. Climate, 28, 6581–6586, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0138.1, 2015. a
Weijer, W. and van Sebille, E.: Impact of Agulhas Leakage on the Atlantic
Overturning Circulation in the CCSM4, J. Climate, 27, 101–110,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00714.1, 2014. a, b, c
Weijer, W., De Ruijter, W. P., Sterl, A., and Drijfhout, S. S.: Response of
the Atlantic overturning circulation to South Atlantic sources of buoyancy,
Global Planet. Change, 34, 293–311, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8181(02)00121-2, 2002. a, b, c
World Meteorological Organization: Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2018, Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project – Report No. 58, WMO, UNEP, Geneva, Switzerland, 2018. a
Yin, J. H.: A consistent poleward shift of the storm tracks in simulations of
21st century climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L18701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023684, 2005. a
Short summary
Greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase, while the Antarctic ozone hole is expected to recover during the twenty-first century. We separate the effects of ozone recovery and of greenhouse gases on the Southern Hemisphere atmospheric and oceanic circulation, and we find that ozone recovery is generally reducing the impact of greenhouse gases, with the exception of certain regions of the stratosphere during spring, where the two effects reinforce each other.
Greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase, while the Antarctic ozone hole is expected...