Articles | Volume 3, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-377-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-377-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
01 Apr 2022
Research article |
| 01 Apr 2022
| 01 Apr 2022
Impact of climate change on wintertime European atmospheric blocking
Sara Bacer
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Grenoble INP, LEGI, 38000 Grenoble, France
Fatima Jomaa
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Grenoble INP, LEGI, 38000 Grenoble, France
now at: Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Julien Beaumet
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Hubert Gallée
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Enzo Le Bouëdec
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Grenoble INP, LEGI, 38000 Grenoble, France
Martin Ménégoz
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Chantal Staquet
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Grenoble INP, LEGI, 38000 Grenoble, France
Related authors
Sara Bacer, Julien Beaumet, Martin Ménégoz, Hubert Gallée, Enzo Le Bouëdec, and Chantal Staquet
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 211–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-211-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-211-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A model chain is used to downscale outputs from a climate model to the Grenoble valley atmosphere over the 21st century in order to study the impact of climate change on persistent cold-air pool episodes. We find that the atmosphere in the Grenoble valleys during these episodes tends to be slightly less stable in the future under the SSP5–8.5 scenario, and statistically unchanged under the SSP2–4.5 scenario but that very stable persistent cold-air pool episodes can still form.
Simon F. Reifenberg, Anna Martin, Matthias Kohl, Sara Bacer, Zaneta Hamryszczak, Ivan Tadic, Lenard Röder, Daniel J. Crowley, Horst Fischer, Katharina Kaiser, Johannes Schneider, Raphael Dörich, John N. Crowley, Laura Tomsche, Andreas Marsing, Christiane Voigt, Andreas Zahn, Christopher Pöhlker, Bruna A. Holanda, Ovid Krüger, Ulrich Pöschl, Mira Pöhlker, Patrick Jöckel, Marcel Dorf, Ulrich Schumann, Jonathan Williams, Birger Bohn, Joachim Curtius, Hardwig Harder, Hans Schlager, Jos Lelieveld, and Andrea Pozzer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 10901–10917, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10901-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10901-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this work we use a combination of observational data from an aircraft campaign and model results to investigate the effect of the European lockdown due to COVID-19 in spring 2020. Using model results, we show that the largest relative changes to the atmospheric composition caused by the reduced emissions are located in the upper troposphere around aircraft cruise altitude, while the largest absolute changes are present at the surface.
Domenico Taraborrelli, David Cabrera-Perez, Sara Bacer, Sergey Gromov, Jos Lelieveld, Rolf Sander, and Andrea Pozzer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 2615–2636, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2615-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2615-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric pollutants from anthropogenic activities and biomass burning are usually regarded as ozone precursors. Monocyclic aromatics are no exception. Calculations with a comprehensive atmospheric model are consistent with this view but only for air masses close to pollution source regions. However, the same model predicts that aromatics, when transported to remote areas, may effectively destroy ozone. This loss of tropospheric ozone rivals the one attributed to bromine.
Sara Bacer, Sylvia C. Sullivan, Odran Sourdeval, Holger Tost, Jos Lelieveld, and Andrea Pozzer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1485–1505, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1485-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1485-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the relative importance of the rates of both microphysical processes and unphysical correction terms that act as sources or sinks of ice crystals in cold clouds. By means of numerical simulations performed with a global chemistry–climate model, we assess the relevance of these rates at global and regional scales. This estimation is of fundamental importance to assign priority to the development of microphysics parameterizations and compare model output with observations.
Klaus Klingmüller, Vlassis A. Karydis, Sara Bacer, Georgiy L. Stenchikov, and Jos Lelieveld
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 15285–15295, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15285-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15285-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Particulate air pollution cools the climate and partially masks the greenhouse warming by reflecting sunlight and enhancing the reflection by clouds. The intensity of this cooling depends on interactions between pollution and desert dust within the atmosphere. Our simulations with a global atmospheric chemistry-climate model indicate that these interactions significantly weaken the cooling.
Meryem Tanarhte, Sara Bacer, Susannah M. Burrows, J. Alex Huffman, Kyle M. Pierce, Andrea Pozzer, Roland Sarda-Estève, Nicole J. Savage, and Jos Lelieveld
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-251, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-251, 2019
Publication in ACP not foreseen
Short summary
Short summary
Bioaerosols have been an important topic in atmospheric science in the last two decades. This paper compares different emission parametrizations used in fungal spores modeling and compare their results to two sets of new observational datasets. It emphasises their uncertainties in order to improve their modeling in the future. This comparison is addressed primarily to the scientific community (publishing in ACP) interested in this type of modeling and the related experimental work in this field.
Sara Bacer, Sylvia C. Sullivan, Vlassis A. Karydis, Donifan Barahona, Martina Krämer, Athanasios Nenes, Holger Tost, Alexandra P. Tsimpidi, Jos Lelieveld, and Andrea Pozzer
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4021–4041, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4021-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4021-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The complexity of ice nucleation mechanisms and aerosol--ice interactions makes their representation still challenging in atmospheric models. We have implemented a comprehensive ice crystal formation parameterization in the global chemistry-climate model EMAC to improve the representation of ice crystal number concentrations. The newly implemented parameterization takes into account processes which were previously neglected by the standard version of the model.
Meryem Tanarhte, Sara Bacer, Susannah M. Burrows, J. Alex Huffman, Kyle M. Pierce, Andrea Pozzer, Roland Sarda-Estève, Nicole J. Savage, and Jos Lelieveld
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2018-361, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2018-361, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Vlassis A. Karydis, Alexandra P. Tsimpidi, Sara Bacer, Andrea Pozzer, Athanasios Nenes, and Jos Lelieveld
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 5601–5621, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5601-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5601-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The importance of mineral dust for cloud droplet formation is studied by considering the adsorption activation of insoluble dust particles and the thermodynamic interactions between mineral cations and inorganic anions. This study demonstrates that a comprehensive treatment of the CCN activity of mineral dust and its chemical and thermodynamic interactions with inorganic species by chemistry climate models is important to realistically account for aerosol–chemistry–cloud–climate interaction.
Sara Bacer, Theodoros Christoudias, and Andrea Pozzer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15581–15592, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15581-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15581-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on atmospheric pollutant transport in the 21st century under a global climate-change scenario, using a coupled atmosphere–chemistry–ocean general circulation model. We find that, at the end of the century, the south-western Mediterranean and northern Africa will see higher pollutant concentrations during positive NAO phases with respect to the past, while a wider part of north Europe will see lower pollutant concentrations.
S. Bacer, T. Christoudias, and A. Pozzer
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-15-33049-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-15-33049-2015, 2015
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the temporal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern and its relation to the atmospheric dispersion of pollutants in the near past and in the future.
We use a global climate circulation model in order to analyze the NAO signal and its correlation with pollutant concentrations. We find that the NAO is influenced by natural climate variability and that the NAO Indices may be used as indicators of (future) pollutant transport over Europe.
Sara Bacer, Julien Beaumet, Martin Ménégoz, Hubert Gallée, Enzo Le Bouëdec, and Chantal Staquet
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 211–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-211-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-211-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A model chain is used to downscale outputs from a climate model to the Grenoble valley atmosphere over the 21st century in order to study the impact of climate change on persistent cold-air pool episodes. We find that the atmosphere in the Grenoble valleys during these episodes tends to be slightly less stable in the future under the SSP5–8.5 scenario, and statistically unchanged under the SSP2–4.5 scenario but that very stable persistent cold-air pool episodes can still form.
Mickaël Lalande, Martin Ménégoz, Gerhard Krinner, Catherine Ottlé, and Frédérique Cheruy
The Cryosphere, 17, 5095–5130, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5095-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the impact of topography on snow cover parameterizations using models and observations. Parameterizations without topography-based considerations overestimate snow cover. Incorporating topography reduces snow overestimation by 5–10 % in mountains, in turn reducing cold biases. However, some biases remain, requiring further calibration and more data. Assessing snow cover parameterizations is challenging due to limited and uncertain data in mountainous regions.
Inès N. Otosaka, Andrew Shepherd, Erik R. Ivins, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Charles Amory, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Martin Horwath, Ian Joughin, Michalea D. King, Gerhard Krinner, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony J. Payne, Eric Rignot, Ted Scambos, Karen M. Simon, Benjamin E. Smith, Louise S. Sørensen, Isabella Velicogna, Pippa L. Whitehouse, Geruo A, Cécile Agosta, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Alejandro Blazquez, William Colgan, Marcus E. Engdahl, Xavier Fettweis, Rene Forsberg, Hubert Gallée, Alex Gardner, Lin Gilbert, Noel Gourmelen, Andreas Groh, Brian C. Gunter, Christopher Harig, Veit Helm, Shfaqat Abbas Khan, Christoph Kittel, Hannes Konrad, Peter L. Langen, Benoit S. Lecavalier, Chia-Chun Liang, Bryant D. Loomis, Malcolm McMillan, Daniele Melini, Sebastian H. Mernild, Ruth Mottram, Jeremie Mouginot, Johan Nilsson, Brice Noël, Mark E. Pattle, William R. Peltier, Nadege Pie, Mònica Roca, Ingo Sasgen, Himanshu V. Save, Ki-Weon Seo, Bernd Scheuchl, Ernst J. O. Schrama, Ludwig Schröder, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Thomas Slater, Giorgio Spada, Tyler C. Sutterley, Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma, Jan Melchior van Wessem, David Wiese, Wouter van der Wal, and Bert Wouters
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1597–1616, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
By measuring changes in the volume, gravitational attraction, and ice flow of Greenland and Antarctica from space, we can monitor their mass gain and loss over time. Here, we present a new record of the Earth’s polar ice sheet mass balance produced by aggregating 50 satellite-based estimates of ice sheet mass change. This new assessment shows that the ice sheets have lost (7.5 x 1012) t of ice between 1992 and 2020, contributing 21 mm to sea level rise.
Caroline Legrand, Benoît Hingray, Bruno Wilhelm, and Martin Ménégoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-92, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-92, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is expected to increase flood hazard worldwide. The evolution is typically estimated from multi-model chains, where regional hydrological scenarios are simulated from weather scenarios derived from coarse resolution atmospheric outputs of climate models. We show that two such chains are able to reproduce, from an atmospheric reanalysis, the 1902–2009 discharge variations and floods of the Upper Rhône alpine River, provided that the weather scenarios are bias-corrected.
Simon F. Reifenberg, Anna Martin, Matthias Kohl, Sara Bacer, Zaneta Hamryszczak, Ivan Tadic, Lenard Röder, Daniel J. Crowley, Horst Fischer, Katharina Kaiser, Johannes Schneider, Raphael Dörich, John N. Crowley, Laura Tomsche, Andreas Marsing, Christiane Voigt, Andreas Zahn, Christopher Pöhlker, Bruna A. Holanda, Ovid Krüger, Ulrich Pöschl, Mira Pöhlker, Patrick Jöckel, Marcel Dorf, Ulrich Schumann, Jonathan Williams, Birger Bohn, Joachim Curtius, Hardwig Harder, Hans Schlager, Jos Lelieveld, and Andrea Pozzer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 10901–10917, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10901-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10901-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this work we use a combination of observational data from an aircraft campaign and model results to investigate the effect of the European lockdown due to COVID-19 in spring 2020. Using model results, we show that the largest relative changes to the atmospheric composition caused by the reduced emissions are located in the upper troposphere around aircraft cruise altitude, while the largest absolute changes are present at the surface.
Christoph Kittel, Charles Amory, Stefan Hofer, Cécile Agosta, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ella Gilbert, Louis Le Toumelin, Étienne Vignon, Hubert Gallée, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 16, 2655–2669, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Model projections suggest large differences in future Antarctic surface melting even for similar greenhouse gas scenarios and warming rates. We show that clouds containing a larger amount of liquid water lead to stronger melt. As surface melt can trigger the collapse of the ice shelves (the safety band of the Antarctic Ice Sheet), clouds could be a major source of uncertainties in projections of sea level rise.
Ralf Döscher, Mario Acosta, Andrea Alessandri, Peter Anthoni, Thomas Arsouze, Tommi Bergman, Raffaele Bernardello, Souhail Boussetta, Louis-Philippe Caron, Glenn Carver, Miguel Castrillo, Franco Catalano, Ivana Cvijanovic, Paolo Davini, Evelien Dekker, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, David Docquier, Pablo Echevarria, Uwe Fladrich, Ramon Fuentes-Franco, Matthias Gröger, Jost v. Hardenberg, Jenny Hieronymus, M. Pasha Karami, Jukka-Pekka Keskinen, Torben Koenigk, Risto Makkonen, François Massonnet, Martin Ménégoz, Paul A. Miller, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Lars Nieradzik, Twan van Noije, Paul Nolan, Declan O'Donnell, Pirkka Ollinaho, Gijs van den Oord, Pablo Ortega, Oriol Tintó Prims, Arthur Ramos, Thomas Reerink, Clement Rousset, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Philippe Le Sager, Torben Schmith, Roland Schrödner, Federico Serva, Valentina Sicardi, Marianne Sloth Madsen, Benjamin Smith, Tian Tian, Etienne Tourigny, Petteri Uotila, Martin Vancoppenolle, Shiyu Wang, David Wårlind, Ulrika Willén, Klaus Wyser, Shuting Yang, Xavier Yepes-Arbós, and Qiong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2973–3020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Earth system model EC-Earth3 is documented here. Key performance metrics show physical behavior and biases well within the frame known from recent models. With improved physical and dynamic features, new ESM components, community tools, and largely improved physical performance compared to the CMIP5 version, EC-Earth3 represents a clear step forward for the only European community ESM. We demonstrate here that EC-Earth3 is suited for a range of tasks in CMIP6 and beyond.
Mickaël Lalande, Martin Ménégoz, Gerhard Krinner, Kathrin Naegeli, and Stefan Wunderle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1061–1098, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1061-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1061-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change over High Mountain Asia is investigated with CMIP6 climate models. A general cold bias is found in this area, often related to a snow cover overestimation in the models. Ensemble experiments generally encompass the past observed trends, suggesting that even biased models can reproduce the trends. Depending on the future scenario, a warming from 1.9 to 6.5 °C, associated with a snow cover decrease and precipitation increase, is expected at the end of the 21st century.
Julien Beaumet, Michel Déqué, Gerhard Krinner, Cécile Agosta, Antoinette Alias, and Vincent Favier
The Cryosphere, 15, 3615–3635, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3615-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3615-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use empirical run-time bias correction (also called flux correction) to correct the systematic errors of the ARPEGE atmospheric climate model. When applying the method to future climate projections, we found a lesser poleward shift and an intensification of the maximum of westerly winds present in the southern high latitudes. This yields a significant additional warming of +0.6 to +0.9 K of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with respect to non-corrected control projections using the RCP8.5 scenario.
Louis Le Toumelin, Charles Amory, Vincent Favier, Christoph Kittel, Stefan Hofer, Xavier Fettweis, Hubert Gallée, and Vinay Kayetha
The Cryosphere, 15, 3595–3614, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3595-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3595-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Snow is frequently eroded from the surface by the wind in Adelie Land (Antarctica) and suspended in the lower atmosphere. By performing model simulations, we show firstly that suspended snow layers interact with incoming radiation similarly to a near-surface cloud. Secondly, suspended snow modifies the atmosphere's thermodynamic structure and energy exchanges with the surface. Our results suggest snow transport by the wind should be taken into account in future model studies over the region.
Domenico Taraborrelli, David Cabrera-Perez, Sara Bacer, Sergey Gromov, Jos Lelieveld, Rolf Sander, and Andrea Pozzer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 2615–2636, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2615-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2615-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric pollutants from anthropogenic activities and biomass burning are usually regarded as ozone precursors. Monocyclic aromatics are no exception. Calculations with a comprehensive atmospheric model are consistent with this view but only for air masses close to pollution source regions. However, the same model predicts that aromatics, when transported to remote areas, may effectively destroy ozone. This loss of tropospheric ozone rivals the one attributed to bromine.
Marion Donat-Magnin, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Christoph Kittel, Cécile Agosta, Charles Amory, Hubert Gallée, Gerhard Krinner, and Mondher Chekki
The Cryosphere, 15, 571–593, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-571-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-571-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We simulate the West Antarctic climate in 2100 under increasing greenhouse gases. Future accumulation over the ice sheet increases, which reduces sea level changing rate. Surface ice-shelf melt rates increase until 2100. Some ice shelves experience a lot of liquid water at their surface, which indicates potential ice-shelf collapse. In contrast, no liquid water is found over other ice shelves due to huge amounts of snowfall that bury liquid water, favouring refreezing and ice-shelf stability.
Sara Bacer, Sylvia C. Sullivan, Odran Sourdeval, Holger Tost, Jos Lelieveld, and Andrea Pozzer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1485–1505, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1485-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1485-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the relative importance of the rates of both microphysical processes and unphysical correction terms that act as sources or sinks of ice crystals in cold clouds. By means of numerical simulations performed with a global chemistry–climate model, we assess the relevance of these rates at global and regional scales. This estimation is of fundamental importance to assign priority to the development of microphysics parameterizations and compare model output with observations.
Klaus Klingmüller, Vlassis A. Karydis, Sara Bacer, Georgiy L. Stenchikov, and Jos Lelieveld
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 15285–15295, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15285-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15285-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Particulate air pollution cools the climate and partially masks the greenhouse warming by reflecting sunlight and enhancing the reflection by clouds. The intensity of this cooling depends on interactions between pollution and desert dust within the atmosphere. Our simulations with a global atmospheric chemistry-climate model indicate that these interactions significantly weaken the cooling.
Martin Ménégoz, Evgenia Valla, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Juliette Blanchet, Julien Beaumet, Bruno Wilhelm, Hubert Gallée, Xavier Fettweis, Samuel Morin, and Sandrine Anquetin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5355–5377, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5355-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5355-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The study investigates precipitation changes in the Alps, using observations and a 7 km resolution climate simulation over 1900–2010. An increase in mean precipitation is found in winter over the Alps, whereas a drying occurred in summer in the surrounding plains. A general increase in the daily annual maximum of precipitation is evidenced (20 to 40 % per century), suggesting an increase in extreme events that is significant only when considering long time series, typically 50 to 80 years.
Florentin Lemonnier, Alizée Chemison, Hubert Gallée, Gerhard Krinner, Jean-Baptiste Madeleine, Chantal Claud, and Christophe Genthon
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-167, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-167, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the first evaluation from snowfall observations in Antarctica of the general circulation model LMDz (global), the atmospheric component of the coupled IPSL Climate Model that is part of CMIP6 (IPCC). We also present an evaluation of the new version of the MAR model (regional), considered as a reference in terms of polar climate modelling. Both models show satisfying results for the modelling of precipitation in Antarctica.
Lawrence Mudryk, María Santolaria-Otín, Gerhard Krinner, Martin Ménégoz, Chris Derksen, Claire Brutel-Vuilmet, Mike Brady, and Richard Essery
The Cryosphere, 14, 2495–2514, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze how well updated state-of-the-art climate models reproduce observed historical snow cover extent and snow mass and how they project that these quantities will change up to the year 2100. Overall the updated models better represent historical snow extent than previous models, and they simulate stronger historical trends in snow extent and snow mass. They project that spring snow extent will decrease by 8 % for each degree Celsius that the global surface air temperature increases.
François Massonnet, Martin Ménégoz, Mario Acosta, Xavier Yepes-Arbós, Eleftheria Exarchou, and Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1165–1178, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1165-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1165-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Earth system models (ESMs) are one of the cornerstones of modern climate science. They are usually run on high-performance computers (HPCs). Whether the choice of HPC can affect the model results is a question of importance for optimizing the design of scientific studies. Here, we introduce a protocol for testing the replicability of the EC-Earth3 ESM across different HPCs. We find the simulation results to be replicable only if specific precautions are taken at the compilation stage.
Marion Donat-Magnin, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Hubert Gallée, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan D. Wille, Vincent Favier, Amine Drira, and Cécile Agosta
The Cryosphere, 14, 229–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-229-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-229-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Modeling the interannual variability of the surface conditions over Antarctic glaciers is important for the identification of climate trends and climate predictions and to assess models. We simulate snow accumulation and surface melting in the Amundsen sector (West Antarctica) over 1979–2017. For all the glaciers, the interannual variability of summer snow accumulation and surface melting is driven by two distinct mechanisms related to variations in the Amundsen Sea Low strength and position.
Julien Beaumet, Michel Déqué, Gerhard Krinner, Cécile Agosta, and Antoinette Alias
The Cryosphere, 13, 3023–3043, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3023-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3023-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The atmospheric model ARPEGE is used with a stretched grid in order to reach an average horizontal resolution of 35 km over Antarctica. Over 1981–2010, we forced the model with observed and modelled sea surface conditions (SSCs). For the late 21st century, we use original and bias-corrected sea surface conditions from RCP8.5 climate projections. We assess the impact of using direct or bias-corrected SSCs for the evolution of Antarctic climate and surface mass balance.
Meryem Tanarhte, Sara Bacer, Susannah M. Burrows, J. Alex Huffman, Kyle M. Pierce, Andrea Pozzer, Roland Sarda-Estève, Nicole J. Savage, and Jos Lelieveld
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-251, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-251, 2019
Publication in ACP not foreseen
Short summary
Short summary
Bioaerosols have been an important topic in atmospheric science in the last two decades. This paper compares different emission parametrizations used in fungal spores modeling and compare their results to two sets of new observational datasets. It emphasises their uncertainties in order to improve their modeling in the future. This comparison is addressed primarily to the scientific community (publishing in ACP) interested in this type of modeling and the related experimental work in this field.
Cécile Agosta, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, Anais Orsi, Vincent Favier, Hubert Gallée, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Jan Melchior van Wessem, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 13, 281–296, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-281-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-281-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic surface mass balance (ASMB), a component of the sea level budget, is commonly estimated through modelling as observations are scarce. The polar-oriented regional climate model MAR performs well in simulating the observed ASMB. MAR and RACMO2 share common biases we relate to drifting snow transport, with a 3 times larger magnitude than in previous estimates. Sublimation of precipitation in the katabatic layer modelled by MAR is of a magnitude similar to an observation-based estimate.
Julien Beaumet, Gerhard Krinner, Michel Déqué, Rein Haarsma, and Laurent Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 321–342, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-321-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-321-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Oceanic surface conditions coming from coupled ocean–atmosphere global climate models bear considerable biases over the historical climate. We review and present new methods for bias correcting sea surface temperatures and sea-ice concentration coming from such models in order to use them as boundary conditions for atmospheric-only GCMs. For sea ice, we propose a new analogue method which allows us to reproduce more physically consistent future bias-corrected sea-ice concentration maps.
Gerhard Krinner, Chris Derksen, Richard Essery, Mark Flanner, Stefan Hagemann, Martyn Clark, Alex Hall, Helmut Rott, Claire Brutel-Vuilmet, Hyungjun Kim, Cécile B. Ménard, Lawrence Mudryk, Chad Thackeray, Libo Wang, Gabriele Arduini, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Paul Bartlett, Julia Boike, Aaron Boone, Frédérique Chéruy, Jeanne Colin, Matthias Cuntz, Yongjiu Dai, Bertrand Decharme, Jeff Derry, Agnès Ducharne, Emanuel Dutra, Xing Fang, Charles Fierz, Josephine Ghattas, Yeugeniy Gusev, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Kontu, Matthieu Lafaysse, Rachel Law, Dave Lawrence, Weiping Li, Thomas Marke, Danny Marks, Martin Ménégoz, Olga Nasonova, Tomoko Nitta, Masashi Niwano, John Pomeroy, Mark S. Raleigh, Gerd Schaedler, Vladimir Semenov, Tanya G. Smirnova, Tobias Stacke, Ulrich Strasser, Sean Svenson, Dmitry Turkov, Tao Wang, Nander Wever, Hua Yuan, Wenyan Zhou, and Dan Zhu
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5027–5049, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5027-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5027-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides an overview of a coordinated international experiment to determine the strengths and weaknesses in how climate models treat snow. The models will be assessed at point locations using high-quality reference measurements and globally using satellite-derived datasets. How well climate models simulate snow-related processes is important because changing snow cover is an important part of the global climate system and provides an important freshwater resource for human use.
Shaojie Song, Hélène Angot, Noelle E. Selin, Hubert Gallée, Francesca Sprovieri, Nicola Pirrone, Detlev Helmig, Joël Savarino, Olivier Magand, and Aurélien Dommergue
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 15825–15840, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15825-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15825-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Mercury is a trace metal with adverse health effects on human and wildlife. Its unique property makes it undergo long-range transport, and even remote Antarctica receives significant inputs. This paper presents the first model that aims to understand mercury behavior over the Antarctic Plateau. We find that mercury is quickly cycled between snow and air in the sunlit period, likely driven by bromine chemistry, and that several uncertain processes contribute to its behavior in the dark period.
Sara Bacer, Sylvia C. Sullivan, Vlassis A. Karydis, Donifan Barahona, Martina Krämer, Athanasios Nenes, Holger Tost, Alexandra P. Tsimpidi, Jos Lelieveld, and Andrea Pozzer
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4021–4041, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4021-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4021-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The complexity of ice nucleation mechanisms and aerosol--ice interactions makes their representation still challenging in atmospheric models. We have implemented a comprehensive ice crystal formation parameterization in the global chemistry-climate model EMAC to improve the representation of ice crystal number concentrations. The newly implemented parameterization takes into account processes which were previously neglected by the standard version of the model.
Meryem Tanarhte, Sara Bacer, Susannah M. Burrows, J. Alex Huffman, Kyle M. Pierce, Andrea Pozzer, Roland Sarda-Estève, Nicole J. Savage, and Jos Lelieveld
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2018-361, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2018-361, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Vlassis A. Karydis, Alexandra P. Tsimpidi, Sara Bacer, Andrea Pozzer, Athanasios Nenes, and Jos Lelieveld
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 5601–5621, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5601-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5601-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The importance of mineral dust for cloud droplet formation is studied by considering the adsorption activation of insoluble dust particles and the thermodynamic interactions between mineral cations and inorganic anions. This study demonstrates that a comprehensive treatment of the CCN activity of mineral dust and its chemical and thermodynamic interactions with inorganic species by chemistry climate models is important to realistically account for aerosol–chemistry–cloud–climate interaction.
Christophe Genthon, Luc Piard, Etienne Vignon, Jean-Baptiste Madeleine, Mathieu Casado, and Hubert Gallée
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 691–704, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-691-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-691-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Natural atmospheric supersaturation is a norm rather than an exception at the surface of Dome C on the Antarctic Plateau. This is reported by hygrometers adapted to perform in extreme cold environments and avoid release of excess moisture before it is measured. One year of observation shows that atmospheric models with cold microphysics parameterizations designed for high altitude cirrus reproduce frequently but fail with the detailed statistics of supersaturation at the surface of Dome C.
Sara Bacer, Theodoros Christoudias, and Andrea Pozzer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15581–15592, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15581-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15581-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on atmospheric pollutant transport in the 21st century under a global climate-change scenario, using a coupled atmosphere–chemistry–ocean general circulation model. We find that, at the end of the century, the south-western Mediterranean and northern Africa will see higher pollutant concentrations during positive NAO phases with respect to the past, while a wider part of north Europe will see lower pollutant concentrations.
S. Bacer, T. Christoudias, and A. Pozzer
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-15-33049-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-15-33049-2015, 2015
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the temporal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern and its relation to the atmospheric dispersion of pollutants in the near past and in the future.
We use a global climate circulation model in order to analyze the NAO signal and its correlation with pollutant concentrations. We find that the NAO is influenced by natural climate variability and that the NAO Indices may be used as indicators of (future) pollutant transport over Europe.
Related subject area
Role of atmospheric dynamics in climate change projections
Impact of climate change on persistent cold-air pools in an alpine valley during the 21st century
Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LE – Part 2: A Lagrangian analysis
Atmospheric bias teleconnections in boreal winter associated with systematic sea surface temperature errors in the tropical Indian Ocean
The relationship between extra-tropical cyclone intensity and precipitation in idealised current and future climates
Future changes in the mean and variability of extreme rainfall indices over the Guinea coast and role of the Atlantic equatorial mode
Warm conveyor belts in present-day and future climate simulations – Part 1: Climatology and impacts
Warm conveyor belts in present-day and future climate simulations – Part 2: Role of potential vorticity production for cyclone intensification
A climate-change attribution retrospective of some impactful weather extremes of 2021
The response of tropical cyclone intensity to changes in environmental temperature
Relationship between southern hemispheric jet variability and forced response: the role of the stratosphere
Storm track response to uniform global warming downstream of an idealized sea surface temperature front
Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LE – Part 1: Cyclone intensity, potential vorticity anomalies, and horizontal wind speed
Twenty-first-century Southern Hemisphere impacts of ozone recovery and climate change from the stratosphere to the ocean
Future summer warming pattern under climate change is affected by lapse-rate changes
The importance of horizontal model resolution on simulated precipitation in Europe – from global to regional models
Future wintertime meridional wind trends through the lens of subseasonal teleconnections
Decomposing the response of the stratospheric Brewer–Dobson circulation to an abrupt quadrupling in CO2
The substructure of extremely hot summers in the Northern Hemisphere
Sara Bacer, Julien Beaumet, Martin Ménégoz, Hubert Gallée, Enzo Le Bouëdec, and Chantal Staquet
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 211–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-211-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-211-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A model chain is used to downscale outputs from a climate model to the Grenoble valley atmosphere over the 21st century in order to study the impact of climate change on persistent cold-air pool episodes. We find that the atmosphere in the Grenoble valleys during these episodes tends to be slightly less stable in the future under the SSP5–8.5 scenario, and statistically unchanged under the SSP2–4.5 scenario but that very stable persistent cold-air pool episodes can still form.
Edgar Dolores-Tesillos and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 163–179, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-163-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In a warmer climate, the winter extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic basin are expected to have a larger footprint of strong winds. Dynamical changes at different altitudes are responsible for these wind changes. Based on backward trajectories using the CESM-LE simulations, we show that the diabatic processes gain relevance as the planet warms. For instance, changes in the radiative processes will play an important role in the upper-level cyclone dynamics.
Yuan-Bing Zhao, Nedjeljka Žagar, Frank Lunkeit, and Richard Blender
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 833–852, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-833-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-833-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Coupled climate models have significant biases in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST). Our study shows that the TIO SST biases can affect the simulated global atmospheric circulation and its spatio-temporal variability on large scales. The response of the spatial variability is related to the amplitude or phase of the circulation bias, depending on the flow regime and spatial scale, while the response of the interannual variability depends on the sign of the SST bias.
Victoria A. Sinclair and Jennifer L. Catto
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 567–589, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-567-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-567-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We studied the relationship between the strength of mid-latitude cyclones and their precipitation, how this may change in the future, and whether it depends of the type of cyclone. The relationship between cyclone strength and precipitation increases in warmer climates and depends strongly on the type of cyclone. For some cyclone types there is no relation between cyclone strength and precipitation. For all cyclone types, precipitation increases with uniform warming and polar amplification.
Koffi Worou, Thierry Fichefet, and Hugues Goosse
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 511–530, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-511-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-511-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Atlantic equatorial mode (AEM) of variability is partly responsible for the year-to-year rainfall variability over the Guinea coast. We used the current climate models to explore the present-day and future links between the AEM and the extreme rainfall indices over the Guinea coast. Under future global warming, the total variability of the extreme rainfall indices increases over the Guinea coast. However, the future impact of the AEM on extreme rainfall events decreases over the region.
Hanna Joos, Michael Sprenger, Hanin Binder, Urs Beyerle, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 133–155, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-133-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are strongly ascending, cloud- and precipitation-forming airstreams in extratropical cyclones. In this study we assess their representation in a climate simulation and their changes under global warming. They become moister, become more intense, and reach higher altitudes in a future climate, implying that they potentially have an increased impact on the mid-latitude flow.
Hanin Binder, Hanna Joos, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 19–37, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-19-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-19-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are the main cloud- and precipitation-producing airstreams in extratropical cyclones. The latent heat release that occurs during cloud formation often contributes to the intensification of the associated cyclone. Based on the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble coupled climate simulations, we show that WCBs and associated latent heating will become stronger in a future climate and be even more important for explosive cyclone intensification than in the present.
Davide Faranda, Stella Bourdin, Mireia Ginesta, Meriem Krouma, Robin Noyelle, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1311–1340, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze the atmospheric circulation leading to impactful extreme events for the calendar year 2021 such as the Storm Filomena, Westphalia floods, Hurricane Ida and Medicane Apollo. For some of the events, we find that climate change has contributed to their occurrence or enhanced their intensity; for other events, we find that they are unprecedented. Our approach underscores the importance of considering changes in the atmospheric circulation when performing attribution studies.
James M. Done, Gary M. Lackmann, and Andreas F. Prein
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 693–711, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-693-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-693-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We know that warm oceans generally favour tropical cyclones (TCs). Less is known about the role of air temperature above the oceans extending into the lower stratosphere. Our global analysis of historical records and computer simulations suggests that TCs strengthen in response to historical temperature change while also being influenced by other environmental factors. Ocean warming drives much of the strengthening, with relatively small contributions from temperature changes aloft.
Philipp Breul, Paulo Ceppi, and Theodore G. Shepherd
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 645–658, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-645-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-645-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding how the mid-latitude jet stream will respond to a changing climate is highly important. Unfortunately, climate models predict a wide variety of possible responses. Theoretical frameworks can link an internal jet variability timescale to its response. However, we show that stratospheric influence approximately doubles the internal timescale, inflating predicted responses. We demonstrate an approach to account for the stratospheric influence and recover correct response predictions.
Sebastian Schemm, Lukas Papritz, and Gwendal Rivière
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 601–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-601-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-601-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Much of the change in our daily weather patterns is due to the development and intensification of extratropical cyclones. The response of these systems to climate change is an important topic of ongoing research. This study is the first to reproduce the changes in the North Atlantic circulation and extratropical cyclone characteristics found in fully coupled Earth system models under high-CO2 scenarios, but in an idealized, reduced-complexity simulation with uniform warming.
Edgar Dolores-Tesillos, Franziska Teubler, and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 429–448, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-429-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-429-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Strong winds caused by extratropical cyclones represent a costly hazard for European countries. Here, based on CESM-LENS coupled climate simulations, we show that future changes of such strong winds are characterized by an increased magnitude and extended footprint southeast of the cyclone center. This intensification is related to a combination of increased diabatic heating and changes in upper-level wave dynamics.
Ioana Ivanciu, Katja Matthes, Arne Biastoch, Sebastian Wahl, and Jan Harlaß
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 139–171, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-139-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-139-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase, while the Antarctic ozone hole is expected to recover during the twenty-first century. We separate the effects of ozone recovery and of greenhouse gases on the Southern Hemisphere atmospheric and oceanic circulation, and we find that ozone recovery is generally reducing the impact of greenhouse gases, with the exception of certain regions of the stratosphere during spring, where the two effects reinforce each other.
Roman Brogli, Silje Lund Sørland, Nico Kröner, and Christoph Schär
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1093–1110, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1093-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1093-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In a warmer future climate, climate simulations predict that some land areas will experience excessive warming during summer. We show that the excessive summer warming is related to the vertical distribution of warming within the atmosphere. In regions characterized by excessive warming, much of the warming occurs close to the surface. In other regions, most of the warming is redistributed to higher levels in the atmosphere, which weakens the surface warming.
Gustav Strandberg and Petter Lind
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 181–204, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-181-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-181-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation is a key climate variable with a large impact on society but also difficult to simulate as it depends largely on temporal and spatial scales. We look here at the effect of model resolution on precipitation in Europe, from coarse-scale global model to small-scale regional models. Higher resolution improves simulated precipitation generally, but individual models may over- or underestimate precipitation even at higher resolution.
Dor Sandler and Nili Harnik
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 427–443, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-427-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-427-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The circumglobal teleconnection pattern (CTP) is a wavy pattern of wintertime midlatitude subseasonal flow. It is also linked to various extreme weather events. The CTP is predicted to play a prominent role in future climate. We find that for future projections, most CMIP5 models predict that the CTP will develop a
preferredphase. Our work establishes that the CTP-like climate change signature is in fact comprised of several regional effects, partly due to shifts in CTP phase distributions.
Andreas Chrysanthou, Amanda C. Maycock, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 155–174, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-155-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-155-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We perform 50-year-long time-slice experiments using the Met Office HadGEM3 global climate model in order to decompose the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) response to an abrupt quadrupling of CO2 in three distinct components, (a) the rapid adjustment, associated with CO2 radiative effects; (b) a global uniform sea surface temperature warming; and (c) sea surface temperature patterns. This demonstrates a potential for fast and slow timescales of the response of the BDC to greenhouse gas forcing.
Matthias Röthlisberger, Michael Sprenger, Emmanouil Flaounas, Urs Beyerle, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 45–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-45-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-45-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we quantify how much the coldest, middle and hottest third of all days during extremely hot summers contribute to their respective seasonal mean anomaly. This
extreme-summer substructurevaries substantially across the Northern Hemisphere and is directly related to the local physical drivers of extreme summers. Furthermore, comparing re-analysis (i.e. measurement-based) and climate model extreme-summer substructures reveals a remarkable level of agreement.
Cited articles
Barnes, E. A., Dunn-Sigouin, E., Masato, G., and Woollings, T.: Exploring
recent trends in Northern Hemisphere blocking, Geophys. Res. Lett.,
41, 638–644, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058745, 2014. a, b
Barriopedro, D., García-Herrera, R., and Trigo, R. M.: Application of
blocking diagnosis methods to General Circulation Models. Part I: a novel
detection scheme, Clim. Dynam., 35, 1373–1391,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0767-5, 2010. a, b, c
Berckmans, J., Woollings, T., Demory, M.-E., Vidale, P.-L., and Roberts, M.:
Atmospheric blocking in a high resolution climate model: influences of mean
state, orography and eddy forcing, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 14, 34–40,
https://doi.org/10.1002/asl2.412, 2013. a, b
Boé, J. and Terray, L.: A Weather-Type Approach to Analyzing Winter
Precipitation in France: Twentieth-Century Trends and the Role of
Anthropogenic Forcing, J. Climate, 21, 3118–3133,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1796.1, 2008. a
Cassou, C.: Intraseasonal interaction between the Madden–Julian Oscillation
and the North Atlantic Oscillation, Nature, 455, 523–527,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature07286, 2008. a, b, c, d
Cassou, C., Terray, L., Hurrell, J. W., and Deser, C.: North Atlantic Winter
Climate Regimes: Spatial Asymmetry, Stationarity with Time, and Oceanic
Forcing, J. Clim., 17, 1055–1068,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<1055:NAWCRS>2.0.CO;2, 2004. a
Cassou, C., Terray, L., and Phillips, A.: Tropical Atlantic Influence on
European Heat Waves, J. Clim., 18, 2805–2811,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3506.1, 2005. a
Cheung, H., Zhou, W., Mok, H., Wu, M., and Shao, Y.: Revisiting the climatology
of atmospheric blocking in the Northern Hemisphere, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 30,
397–410, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-012-2006-y, 2013. a, b
Chhin, R. and Yoden, S.: Ranking CMIP5 GCMs for Model Ensemble Selection on
Regional Scale: Case Study of the Indochina Region, J. Geophys.
Res.-Atmos., 123, 8949–8974, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JD028026, 2018. a
Chung, C. and Nigam, S.: Weighting of geophysical data in Principal Component
Analysis, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 104,
16925–16928, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999JD900234, 1999. a
Cortesi, N., Torralba, V., Gonzáez-Reviriego, N., Soret, A., and
J.Doblas-Reyes, F.: Characterization of European wind speed variability using
weather regimes, Clim. Dynam., 53, 4961–4976,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04839-5, 2019. a
Davini, P., Cagnazzo, C., and Anstey, J. A.: A blocking view of the
stratosphere-troposphere coupling, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 119, 11100–11115, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD021703, 2014. a
Davini, P., Corti, S., D'Andrea, F., Rivière, G., and von Hardenberg, J.:
Improved Winter European Atmospheric Blocking Frequencies in High-Resolution
Global Climate Simulations, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 9,
2615–2634, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017MS001082, 2017. a
Dole, R. M. and Gordon, N. D.: Persistent Anomalies of the Extratropical
Northern Hemisphere Wintertime Circulation: Geographical Distribution and
Regional Persistence Characteristics, Mon. Weather Rev., 111,
1567–1586, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1983)111<1567:PAOTEN>2.0.CO;2, 1983. a, b, c, d
Dorrington, J. and Strommen, K. J.: Jet Speed Variability Obscures
Euro-Atlantic Regime Structure, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47,
e2020GL087907, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087907, 2020. a, b
Dorrington, J., Strommen, K., and Fabiano, F.: How well does CMIP6 capture the dynamics of Euro-Atlantic weather regimes, and why?, Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-71, in review, 2021. a
Drouard, M. and Woollings, T.: Contrasting Mechanisms of Summer Blocking Over
Western Eurasia, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 12040–12048,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079894, 2018. a
Dunn-Sigouin, E., Son, S.-W., and Lin, H.: Evaluation of Northern Hemisphere
Blocking Climatology in the Global Environment Multiscale Model, Mon.
Weather Rev., 141, 707–727, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00134.1, 2013. a
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016. a
Falkena, S. K., de Wiljes, J., Weisheimer, A., and Shepherd, T. G.: Revisiting
the identification of wintertime atmospheric circulation regimes in the
Euro-Atlantic sector, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc.,
146, 2801–2814, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3818, 2020. a
Francis, J. A. and Vavrus, S. J.: Evidence linking Arctic amplification to
extreme weather in mid-latitudes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, 6,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051000, 2012. a
Hausfather, Z. and Peters, G.: Emissions – the 'businessas usual' story is
misleading, Nature, 577, 618–620, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-00177-3, 2020. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A.,
Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D.,
Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P.,
Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D.,
Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer,
A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M.,
Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P.,
Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 global
reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 146,
1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020. a
Hertig, E. and Jacobeit, J.: Variability of weather regimes in the North
Atlantic-European area: past and future, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 15,
314–320, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl2.505, 2014. a, b
Hou, P. and Wu, S.: Long-term Changes in Extreme Air Pollution Meteorology and
the Implications for Air Quality, Sci. Rep., 6, 23792,
https://doi.org/10.1038/srep23792, 2016. a
Huguenin, M. F., Fischer, E. M., Kotlarski, S., Scherrer, S. C., Schwierz, C.,
and Knutti, R.: Lack of Change in the Projected Frequency and Persistence of
Atmospheric Circulation Types Over Central Europe, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 47, 9, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086132, 2020. a, b, c
Jiménez, P. A., González-Rouco, J., Montávez, J.,
García-Bustamante, E., and Navarro, J.: Climatology of wind patterns in
the northeast of the Iberian Peninsula, Int. J. Climatol.,
29, 501–525, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1705, 2009. a
Kautz, L.-A., Martius, O., Pfahl, S., Pinto, J. G., Ramos, A. M., Sousa, P. M., and Woollings, T.: Atmospheric Blocking and Weather Extremes over the Euro-Atlantic Sector – A Review, Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-56, in review, 2021. a
Khan, N., Shahid, S., Ahmed, K., Wang, X., Ali, R., Ismail, T., and Nawaz, N.:
Selection of GCMs for the projection of spatial distribution of heat waves in
Pakistan, Atmos. Res., 233, 104688,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104688, 2020. a
Largeron, Y. and Staquet, C.: Persistent inversion dynamics and wintertime
PM10 air pollution in Alpine valleys, Atmos. Environ., 135,
92–108, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2016.03.045, 2016. a
Lee, D. Y. and Ahn, J.-B.: Future change in the frequency and intensity of
wintertime North Pacific blocking in CMIP5 models, Int. J.
Climatol., 37, 2765–2781, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4878, 2017. a
Lupo, A., Jensen, A., Mokhov, I., Timazhev, A., Eichler, T., and Efe, B.:
Changes in Global Blocking Character in Recent Decades, Atmosphere, 10,
92, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10020092, 2019. a, b, c
Masato, G., Hoskins, B. J., and Woollings, T.: Winter and Summer Northern
Hemisphere Blocking in CMIP5 Models, J. Clim., 26, 7044–7059,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00466.1, 2013. a, b
Masato, G., Woollings, T., and Hoskins, B. J.: Structure and impact of
atmospheric blocking over the Euro-Atlantic region in present-day and future
simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 1051–1058,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058570, 2014. a, b, c
Matsueda, M. and Endo, H.: The robustness of future changes in Northern
Hemisphere blocking: A large ensemble projection with multiple sea surface
temperature patterns, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 5158–5166,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073336, 2017. a, b, c, d
Matsueda, M., Mizuta, R., and Kusunoki, S.: Future change in wintertime
atmospheric blocking simulated using a 20-km-mesh atmospheric global
circulation model, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 114, D12114,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD011919, 2009. a, b, c
Ménégoz, M., Cassou, C., Swingedouw, D., Ruprich-Robert, Y.,
Bretonniére, P.-A., and Doblas-Reyes, D.: Role of the Atlantic
Multidecadal Variability in modulating the climate response to a
Pinatubo-like volcanic eruption, Clim. Dynam., 51, 1863–1883,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3986-1, 2018. a
Michelangeli, P.-A., Vautard, R., and Legras, B.: Weather Regimes: Recurrence
and Quasi Stationarity, J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 1237–1256,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1995)052<1237:WRRAQS>2.0.CO;2, 1995. a, b, c
Mokhov, I. and Timazhev, A.: Atmospheric Blocking and Changes in its Frequency
in the 21st Century Simulated with the Ensemble of Climate Models, Russ.
Meteorol. Hydrol, 44, 369–377, https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373919060013, 2019. a
Mokhov, I., Akperov, M., Prokofyeva, M., Timazhev, A., Lupo, A., and Le Treut,
H.: Blockings in the Northern Hemisphere and EuroAtlantic Region:Estimates of
Changes from Reanalysis Data and Model Simulations, Dokl. Earth Sci.,
449, 430–433, https://doi.org/10.1134/S1028334X13040144, 2013. a, b
Mokhov, I. I., Timazhev, A. V., and Lupo, A. R.: Changes in atmospheric
blocking characteristics within Euro-Atlantic region and Northern Hemisphere
as a whole in the 21st century from model simulations using RCP anthropogenic
scenarios, Global Planet. Change, 122, 265–270,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.09.004, 2014. a, b, c, d
Munoz, C., Schultz, D., and Vaughan, G.: A Midlatitude Climatology and
Interannual Variability of 200- and 500-hPa Cut-Off Lows, J. Clim.,
33, 2201–2222, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0497.1, 2020. a
Philipp, A., Beck, C., Huth, R., and Jacobeit, J.: Development and comparison
of circulation type classifications using the COST 733 dataset and software,
Int. J. Climatol., 36, 2673–2691, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3920,
2016. a
Pinheiro, M., Ullrich, P., and Grotjahn, R.: Atmospheric blocking and
intercomparison of objective detection methods: flow field characteristics,
Clim. Dynam., 53, 4189–4216, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04782-5, 2019. a
Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., O'Neill, B. C.,
Fujimori, S., Bauer, N., Calvin, K., Dellink, R., Fricko, O., Lutz, W., Popp,
A., Cuaresma, J. C., KC, S., Leimbach, M., Jiang, L., Kram, T., Rao, S.,
Emmerling, J., Ebi, K., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Humpenöder, F., Da
Silva, L. A., Smith, S., Stehfest, E., Bosetti, V., Eom, J., Gernaat, D.,
Masui, T., Rogelj, J., Strefler, J., Drouet, L., Krey, V., Luderer, G.,
Harmsen, M., Takahashi, K., Baumstark, L., Doelman, J. C., Kainuma, M.,
Klimont, Z., Marangoni, G., Lotze-Campen, H., Obersteiner, M., Tabeau, A.,
and Tavoni, M.: The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use,
and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview, Global Environ.
Change, 42, 153–168, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009, 2017. a
Russo, A., Trigo, R. M., Martins, H., and Mendes, M. T.: NO2, PM10 and O3 urban
concentrations and its association with circulation weather types in
Portugal, Atmos. Environ., 89, 768–785,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.02.010, 2014. a
Sáenz, F. and Durán-Quesada, A.: A climatology of low level windregimes
over Central America using aweather type classification approach, Front.
Earth Sci., 3, 15, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2015.00015, 2015.
a
Schiemann, R., Demory, M., Shaffrey, L. C., Strachan, J., Vidale, P. L.,
Mizielinski, M. S., Roberts, M. J., Matsueda, M., Wehner, M. F., and Jung,
T.: The Resolution Sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere Blocking in Four 25-km
Atmospheric Global Circulation Models, J. Clim., 30, 337–358,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0100.1, 2017. a
Sillmann, J. and Croci-Maspoli, M.: Present and future atmospheric blocking and
its impact on European mean and extreme climate, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 36, 10, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL038259, 2009. a, b, c
Tibaldi, S. and Molteni, F.: On the operational predictability of blocking,
Tellus A, 42, 343–365, https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1990.t01-2-00003.x, 1990. a
Whiteman, C. D.: Breakup of Temperature Inversions in Deep Mountain Valleys:
Part I. Observations, J. Appl. Meteorol., 21, 270–289,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1982)021<0270:BOTIID>2.0.CO;2, 1982. a
Wiedenmann, J. M., Lupo, A. R., Mokhov, I. I., and Tikhonova, E. A.: The
Climatology of Blocking Anticyclones for the Northern and Southern
Hemispheres: Block Intensity as a Diagnostic, J. Clim., 15,
3459–3473, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<3459:TCOBAF>2.0.CO;2, 2002. a, b
Woollings, T., Barriopedro, D., Methven, J., Son, S.-W., Martius, O., Harvey,
B., Sillmann, J., Lupo, A. R., and Seneviratne, S.: Blocking and its Response
to Climate Change, Curr. Clim. Change Rep., 4, 287–300,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-018-0108-z, 2018. a, b, c, d
Short summary
We study the impact of climate change on wintertime atmospheric blocking over Europe. We focus on the frequency, duration, and size of blocking events. The blocking events are identified via the weather type decomposition methodology. We find that blocking frequency, duration, and size are mostly stationary over the 21st century. Additionally, we compare the blocking size results with the size of the blocking events identified via a different approach using a blocking index.
We study the impact of climate change on wintertime atmospheric blocking over Europe. We focus...
