Articles | Volume 3, issue 2
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 413–428, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-413-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 413–428, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-413-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
05 Apr 2022
Research article
| 05 Apr 2022
Tropical influence on heat-generating atmospheric circulation over Australia strengthens through spring
Roseanna C. McKay et al.
Related subject area
Atmospheric teleconnections incl. stratosphere–troposphere coupling
Sudden stratospheric warmings during El Niño and La Niña: sensitivity to atmospheric model biases
Minimal impact of model biases on Northern Hemisphere El Niño–Southern Oscillation teleconnections
Resampling of ENSO teleconnections: accounting for cold-season evolution reduces uncertainty in the North Atlantic
The wave geometry of final stratospheric warming events
Origins of multi-decadal variability in sudden stratospheric warmings
Tropospheric eddy feedback to different stratospheric conditions in idealised baroclinic life cycles
Impacts of the North Atlantic Oscillation on winter precipitations and storm track variability in southeast Canada and the northeast United States
The role of Barents–Kara sea ice loss in projected polar vortex changes
Mechanisms and predictability of sudden stratospheric warming in winter 2018
On the intermittency of orographic gravity wave hotspots and its importance for middle atmosphere dynamics
The role of North Atlantic–European weather regimes in the surface impact of sudden stratospheric warming events
Nonlinearity in the tropospheric pathway of ENSO to the North Atlantic
Nicholas L. Tyrrell, Juho M. Koskentausta, and Alexey Yu. Karpechko
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 45–58, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-45-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-45-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
El Niño events are known to effect the variability of the wintertime stratospheric polar vortex. The observed relationship differs from what is seen in climate models. Climate models have errors in their average winds and temperature, and in this work we artificially reduce those errors to see how that changes the communication of El Niño events to the polar stratosphere. We find reducing errors improves stratospheric variability, but does not explain the differences with observations.
Nicholas L. Tyrrell and Alexey Yu. Karpechko
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 913–925, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-913-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-913-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (El Niño) affect the global climate. The Pacific-to-Europe connection relies on interactions of large atmospheric waves with winds and surface pressure. We looked at how mean errors in a climate model affect its ability to simulate the Pacific-to-Europe connection. We found that even large errors in the seasonal winds did not affect the response of the model to an El Niño event, which is good news for seasonal forecasts which rely on these connections.
Martin P. King, Camille Li, and Stefan Sobolowski
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 759–776, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-759-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-759-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We re-examine the uncertainty of ENSO teleconnection to the North Atlantic by considering the November–December and January–February months in the cold season, in addition to the conventional DJF months. This is motivated by previous studies reporting varying teleconnected atmospheric anomalies and the mechanisms concerned. Our results indicate an improved confidence in the patterns of the teleconnection. The finding may also have implications on research in predictability and climate impact.
Amy H. Butler and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 453–474, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-453-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-453-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We classify by wave geometry the stratospheric polar vortex during the final warming that occurs every spring in both hemispheres due to a combination of radiative and dynamical processes. We show that the shape of the vortex, as well as the timing of the seasonal transition, is linked to total column ozone prior to and surface weather following the final warming. These results have implications for prediction and our understanding of stratosphere–troposphere coupling processes in springtime.
Oscar Dimdore-Miles, Lesley Gray, and Scott Osprey
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 205–231, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-205-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-205-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Observations of the stratosphere span roughly half a century, preventing analysis of multi-decadal variability in circulation using these data. Instead, we rely on long simulations of climate models. Here, we use a model to examine variations in northern polar stratospheric winds and find they vary with a period of around 90 years. We show that this is possibly due to variations in the size of winds over the Equator. This result may improve understanding of Equator–polar stratospheric coupling.
Philip Rupp and Thomas Birner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 111–128, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-111-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-111-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use the simple framework of an idealised baroclinic life cycle to study the tropospheric eddy feedback to different stratospheric conditions and, hence, obtain insights into the fundamental processes of stratosphere–troposphere coupling – in particular, the processes involved in creating the robust equatorward shift in the tropospheric mid-latitude jet that has been observed following sudden stratospheric warming events.
Julien Chartrand and Francesco S. R. Pausata
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 731–744, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-731-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-731-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the winter climate of eastern North America using reanalysis data. Results show that negative phases are linked with an increase in frequency of winter storms developing on the east coast of the United States, resulting in much heavier snowfall over the eastern United States. On the contrary, an increase in cyclone activity over southeastern Canada results in slightly heavier precipitation during positive phases.
Marlene Kretschmer, Giuseppe Zappa, and Theodore G. Shepherd
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 715–730, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-715-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-715-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The winds in the polar stratosphere affect the weather in the mid-latitudes, making it important to understand potential changes in response to global warming. However, climate model projections disagree on how this so-called polar vortex will change in the future. Here we show that sea ice loss in the Barents and Kara (BK) seas plays a central role in this. The time when the BK seas become ice-free differs between models, which explains some of the disagreement regarding vortex projections.
Irina A. Statnaia, Alexey Y. Karpechko, and Heikki J. Järvinen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 657–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-657-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-657-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we investigate the role of the tropospheric forcing in the occurrence of the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) that took place in February 2018, its predictability and teleconnection with the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) by analysing the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble forecast. The purpose of the paper is to present the results of the analysis of the atmospheric circulation before and during the SSW and clarify the driving mechanisms.
Ales Kuchar, Petr Sacha, Roland Eichinger, Christoph Jacobi, Petr Pisoft, and Harald E. Rieder
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 481–495, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-481-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-481-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Our study focuses on the impact of topographic structures such as the Himalayas and Rocky Mountains, so-called orographic gravity-wave hotspots. These hotspots play an important role in the dynamics of the middle atmosphere, in particular in the lower stratosphere. We study intermittency and zonally asymmetric character of these hotspots and their effects on the upper stratosphere and mesosphere using a new detection method in various modeling and observational datasets.
Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Christian M. Grams, and Lukas Papritz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 373–388, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-373-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-373-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We cannot currently predict the weather over Europe beyond 2 weeks. The stratosphere provides a promising opportunity to go beyond that limit by providing a change in probability of certain weather regimes at the surface. However, not all stratospheric extreme events are followed by the same surface weather evolution. We show that this weather evolution is related to the tropospheric weather regime around the onset of the stratospheric extreme event for many stratospheric events.
Bernat Jiménez-Esteve and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 225–245, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-225-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-225-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric predictability over Europe on subseasonal to seasonal timescales remains limited. However, the remote impact from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can help to improve predictability. Research has suggested that the ENSO impact in the North Atlantic region is affected by nonlinearities. Here, we isolate the nonlinearities in the tropospheric pathway through the North Pacific, finding that a strong El Niño leads to a stronger and distinct impact compared to a strong La Niña.
Cited articles
Abram, N. J., Wright, N. M., Ellis, B., Dixon, B. C., Wurtzel, J. B.,
England, M. H., Ummenhofer, C. C., Philibosian, B., Cahyarini, S. Y., Yu,
T.-L., Shen, C.-C., Cheng, H., Edwards, R. L., and Heslop, D.: Coupling of
Indo-Pacific climate variability over the last millennium, Nature, 579,
385–392, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2084-4, 2020.
Abram, N. J., Henley, B. J., Sen Gupta, A., Lippmann, T. J. R., Clarke, H.,
Dowdy, A. J., Sharples, J. J., Nolan, R. H., Zhang, T., Wooster, M. J.,
Wurtzel, J. B., Meissner, K. J., Pitman, A. J., Ukkola, A. M., Murphy, B.
P., Tapper, N. J., and Boer, M. M.: Connections of climate change and
variability to large and extreme forest fires in southeast Australia, Commun. Earth Environ., 2, 8, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-020-00065-8, 2021.
Ambrizzi, T., Hoskins, B. J., and Hsu, H.-H.: Rossby wave propagation and
teleconnection patterns in austral winter, J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 3661–3672,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1995)052<3661:RWPATP>2.0.CO;2, 1995.
Arblaster, J., Lim, E.-P., Hendon, H., Trewin, B., Wheeler, M., Liu, G., and
Braganza, K.: UNDERSTANDING AUSTRALIA'S HOTTEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 95, S37–S41, 2014.
Bals-Elsholz, T. M., Atallah, E. H., Bosart, L. F., Wasula, T. A., Cempa, M.
J., and Lupo, A. R.: The Wintertime Southern Hemisphere Split Jet: Structure,
Variability, and Evolution, J. Climate, 14, 4191–4215, 2001.
Barnes, E. A. and Hartmann, D. L.: Detection of Rossby wave breaking and its
response to shifts of the midlatitude jet with climate change: WAVE BREAKING
AND CLIMATE CHANGE, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 117, D09117, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD017469,
2012.
Cai, W., van Rensch, P., Cowan T., and Hendon H. H.: Teleconnection Pathways
of ENSO and the IOD and the Mechanisms for Impacts on Australian Rainfall, J. Climate, 24, 3910–3923, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4129.1,
2011.
Cai, W., Santoso, A., Wang, G., Weller, E., Wu, L., Ashok, K., Masumoto, Y.,
and Yamagata, T.: Increased frequency of extreme Indian Ocean Dipole
events due to greenhouse warming, Nature, 510, 254–258,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13327, 2014.
Ceppi, P., and Hartmann, D. L.: On the Speed of the Eddy-Driven Jet and the
Width of the Hadley Cell in the Southern Hemisphere, J. Climate, 26, 3450–3465,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00414.1, 2013.
Collins, M., Knutti, R., Arblaster, J., Dufresne, J.-L., Fichefet, T.,
Friedlingstein, P., Gao, X., Gutowski, W. J., Johns, T., Krinner, G.,
Shongwe, M., Tebaldi, C., Weaver, A. J., Wehner, M. F., Allen, M. R.,
Andrews, T., Beyerle, U., Bitz, C. M., Bony, S., and Booth, B. B. B.:
Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility, Climate Change 2013 – The Physical Science Basis: Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 1029–1136, 2013.
Cullen, B. R., Johnson, I. R., Eckard, R. J., Lodge, G. M., Walker, R. G.,
Rawnsley, R. P., and McCaskill, M. R.: Climate change effects on pasture
systems in south-eastern Australia, Crop Pasture Sci., 60, 933,
https://doi.org/10.1071/CP09019, 2009.
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P.,
Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P.,
Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N.,
Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., and Vitart, F.:
The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data
assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011.
Dowdy, A. J.: Climatological Variability of Fire Weather in Australia, J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol., 57, 221–234, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0167.1, 2018.
ECMWF: ERA5, ECMWF [data set], https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era5, last access: 14 January 2022.
Fogt, R. L. and Marshall, G. J.: The Southern Annular Mode: Variability,
trends, and climate impacts across the Southern Hemisphere, WIREs Climate Change, 11, e652,
https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.652, 2020.
Gallant, A. J. E. and Lewis, S. C.: Stochastic and anthropogenic
influences on repeated record-breaking temperature extremes in Australian
spring of 2013 and 2014: CAUSES OF REPEATED TEMPERATURE RECORDS, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 2182–2191, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL067740, 2016.
Gibson, P. B., Pitman, A. J., Lorenz, R., and Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E.: The
Role of Circulation and Land Surface Conditions in Current and Future
Australian Heat Waves, J. Climate, 30, 9933–9948,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0265.1, 2017.
Gillett, Z. E., Hendon, H. H., Arblaster, J. M., and Lim, E.-P.: Tropical and
Extratropical Influences on the Variability of the Southern Hemisphere
Wintertime Subtropical Jet, J. Climate, 34, 4009–4022,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0460.1, 2021.
Gong, D. and Wang, S.: Definition of Antarctic Oscillation index, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 459–462, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL900003, 1999.
Harris, S., and Lucas, C.: Understanding the variability of Australian fire
weather between 1973 and 2017, PLoS ONE, 14, e0222328, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0222328, 2019.
Hauser, S., Grams, C. M., Reeder, M. J., McGregor, S., Fink, A. H., and
Quinting, J. F.: A weather system perspective on winter–spring rainfall
variability in southeastern Australia during El Niño, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 146, 2614–2633,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3808, 2020.
Hendon, H. H., Thompson, D. W. J., and Wheeler, M. C.: Australian Rainfall
and Surface Temperature Variations Associated with the Southern Hemisphere
Annular Mode, J. Climate, 20, 2452–2467, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4134.1, 2007.
Hendon, H. H., Lim, E.-P., and Nguyen, H.: Seasonal Variations of Subtropical
Precipitation Associated with the Southern Annular Mode, J. Climate, 27, 3446–3460,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00550.1, 2014.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A.,
Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D.,
Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P.,
Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., and Thépaut, J.: The
ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 146, 1999–2049,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020.
Hirsch, A. L. and King, M. J.: Atmospheric and Land Surface Contributions
to Heatwaves: An Australian Perspective, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 125,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033223, 2020.
Hirsch, A. L., Evans, J. P., Di Virgilio, G., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E.,
Argüeso, D., Pitman, A. J., Carouge, C. C., Kala, J., Andrys, J.,
Petrelli, P., and Rockel, B.: Amplification of Australian Heatwaves via
Local Land-Atmosphere Coupling, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 13625–13647,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030665, 2019.
Hope, P. and Watterson, I.: Persistence of cool conditions after heavy rain
in Australia, J. Southern Hemisphere Earth Syst. Sci., 68, 41–64, https://doi.org/10.22499/3.6801.004, 2018.
Hope, P., Wang, G., Lim, E.-P., Hendon, H. H., and Arblaster, J. M.: WHAT
CAUSED
THE RECORD-BREAKING HEAT ACROSS AUSTRALIA IN OCTOBER 2015?, in: Explaining
Extreme Events of 2015 from a Climate Perspective, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 96,
S1–S172, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00157.1, 2016.
Hoskins, B. J. and Karoly, D. J.: The Steady Linear Response of a Spherical
Atmosphere
to Thermal and Orographic Forcing, J. Atmos. Sci., 38, 1179–1196,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1981)038<1179:TSLROA>2.0.CO;2, 1981.
Hoskins, B. J. and Ambrizzi, T.: Rossby wave propagation on a realistic
longitudinally varying flow, J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 1661–1671, 1993.
Huang, B., Peter, W., Thorne, P. W., Banzon, V. F., Boyer, T., Chepurin, G., Lawrimore, J. H., Menne, M. J., Smith, T. M., Vose, R. S., and Zhang, H.: Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface
Temperature version 5 (ERSSTv5), Upgrades, validations, and
intercomparisons, J. Climate, 30, 8179–8205, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0836.1, 2017.
Hurrell, J., Meehl, G. A., Bader, D., Delworth, T. L., Kirtman, B., and
Wielicki, B.: A Unified Modeling Approach to Climate System Prediction, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 90, 1819–1832, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2752.1, 2009.
Japan Meteorological Agency/Japan, JRA-55: Japanese 55-year Reanalysis,
Daily 3-Hourly and 6-Hourly Data, Research
Data Archive at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Computational
and Information Systems Laboratory, Boulder, Colo., (Updated monthly), https://doi.org/10.5065/D6HH6H41, 2013.
Jarvis, C., Darbyshire, R., Goodwin, I., Barlow, E. W. R., and Eckard, R.:
Advancement of winegrape maturity continuing for winegrowing regions in
Australia with variable evidence of compression of the harvest period:
Advancement of winegrape maturity, Aust. J. Grape Wine Res., 25, 101–108,
https://doi.org/10.1111/ajgw.12373, 2019.
Jones, D. and Trewin, B. C.: On the relationships between the El
Niño-Southern Oscillation and Australian land surface temperature, Int. J. Climatol.,
23, 697–719, 2000.
Jones, D., Wang, W., and Fawcett, R.: High-quality spatial climate data-sets
for Australia, Aust. Meteorol. Oceanogr. J., 58, 233–248, https://doi.org/10.22499/2.5804.003, 2009.
Koch, P., Wernli, H., and Davies, H. C.: An event-based jet-stream
climatology and typology, Int. J. Climatol., 26, 283–301, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1255,
2006.
L'Heureux, M. L. and Thompson, D. W. J.: Observed Relationships between the
El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Extratropical Zonal-Mean
Circulation, J. Climate, 19, 276–287, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3617.1, 2006.
Li, X., Holland, D. M., Gerber, E. P., and Yoo, C.: Impacts of the north and tropical Atlantic Ocean on the Antarctic Peninsula and sea ice, Nature 505, 538–542, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12945, 2014.
Li, X., Gerber, E. P., Holland, D. M., and Yoo, C.: A Rossby Wave Bridge from
the Tropical Atlantic to West Antarctica, J. Climate, 28, 2256–2273,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00450.1, 2015a.
Li, X., Holland, D. M., Gerber, E. P., and Yoo, C.: Rossby Waves Mediate
Impacts of Tropical Oceans on West Antarctic Atmospheric Circulation in
Austral Winter, J. Climate, 28, 8151–8164,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0113.1, 2015b.
Lim, E. P., Hendon, H. H., Arblaster, J. M., Chung, C., Moise, A. F., Hope,
P., Young, G., and Zhao, M.: Interaction of the recent 50 year SST trend and
La Niña 2010: amplification of the Southern Annular Mode and Australian
springtime rainfall, Clim. Dynam., 47, 2273–2291,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2963-9, 2016.
Lim, E.-P., Hendon, H. H., Boschat, G., Hudson, D., Thompson, D. W. J.,
Dowdy, A. J., and Arblaster, J. M.: Australian hot and dry extremes induced
by weakenings of the stratospheric polar vortex, Nat. Geosci., 12, 896–901, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0456-x, 2019b.
Lim, E.-P., Hendon, H. H., Butler, A. H., Thompson, D. W. J., Lawrence, Z.
D., Scaife, A. A., Shepherd, T. G., Polichtchouk, I., Nakamura, H.,
Kobayashi, C., Comer, R., Coy, L., Dowdy, A., Garreaud, R. D., Newman, P.
A., and Wang, G.: The 2019 Southern Hemisphere Stratospheric Polar Vortex
Weakening and Its Impacts, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 102, E1150–E1171,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0112.1, 2021a.
Lim, E.-P., Hudson, D., Wheeler, M. C., Marshall, A. G., King, A., Zhu, H.,
Hendon, H. H., de Burgh-Day, C., Trewin, B., Griffiths, M., Ramchurn, A.,
and Young, G.: Why Australia was not wet during spring 2020 despite La
Niña, Sci. Rep., 11, 18423, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-97690-w, 2021b.
Liu, Z. and Alexander, M.: Atmospheric bridge, oceanic tunnel, and global
climatic teleconnections, Rev. Geophys., 45, RG2005,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2005RG000172, 2007.
Loughran, T. F., Pitman, A. J., and Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E.: The El Niño-Southern Oscillation’s effect on summer heatwave development mechanisms in Australia, Clim. Dynam., 52, 6279–6300, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4511-x, 2019.
Marshall, A., Hudson, D., Wheeler, M., Alves, O., Hendon, H., Pook, M., and
Risbey, J.: Intra-seasonal drivers of extreme heat over Australia in
observations and POAMA-2, Clim. Dynam., 43, 1915–1937,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-2016-1, 2014.
Marshall, A. G., Gregory, P. A., de Burgh-Day, C. O., and Griffiths, M.: Subseasonal drivers
of extreme fire weather in Australia and its prediction in ACCESS-S1 during
spring and summer, Clim. Dynam., 58, 523–553,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05920-8, 2022.
McIntosh, P. C. and Hendon, H. H.: Understanding Rossby wave trains forced
by the Indian Ocean Dipole, Clim. Dynam., 50, 2783–2798,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3771-1, 2018.
McKay, R. C., Arblaster, J. M., Hope, P., and Lim, E.-P.: Exploring
atmospheric circulation leading to three anomalous Australian spring heat
events, Clim. Dynam., 56, 2181–2198, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05580-0,
2021.
Meehl, G. A., Richter, J. H., Teng, H., Capotondi, A., Cobb, K.,
Doblas-Reyes, F., Donat, M. G., England, M. H., Fyfe, J. C., Han, W., Kim,
H., Kirtman, B. P., Kushnir, Y., Lovenduski, N. S., Mann, M. E., Merryfield,
W. J., Nieves, V., Pegion, K., Rosenbloom, N., and Xie, S.-P.:
Initialized Earth System prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales, Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 2, 340–357, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-021-00155-x, 2021.
Meyers, G., McIntosh, P., Pigot, L., and Pook, M.: The Years of El Niño,
La Niña, and Interactions with the Tropical Indian Ocean, J. Climate, 20,
2872–2880, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4152.1, 2007.
Min, S.-K., Cai, W., and Whetton, P.: Influence of climate variability on
seasonal extremes over Australia: SEASONAL EXTREMES OVER AUSTRALIA, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.,
118, 643–654, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50164, 2013.
Nairn, J. and Fawcett, R.: The Excess Heat Factor: A Metric for Heatwave
Intensity and Its Use in Classifying Heatwave Severity, Int. J. Environ. Res. Pub. Health, 12, 227–253,
https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph120100227, 2014.
Nicholls, N.: Sea surface temperature and Australian winter rainfall, J.
Climate, 2, 965–973, 1989.
NOAA: Extended Reconstructed SST, NOAA [data set], https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/extended-reconstructed-sst, last access: 6 July 2020.
Pepler, A., Timbal, B., Rakich, C., and Coutts-Smith, A.: Indian Ocean Dipole
Overrides ENSO's Influence on Cool Season Rainfall across the Eastern
Seaboard of Australia, J. Climate, 27, 3816–3826,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00554.1, 2014.
Power, S., Tseitkin, F., Torok, S., Lavery, B., Dahni, R., and McAvaney, B.:
Australian temperature, Australian rainfall and the Southern Oscillation,
1910–1992: coherent variability and recent changes, Aust.
Meteorol. Magazine, 47, 85–101, 1998.
Quinting, J. F. and Reeder, M. J.: Southeastern Australian Heat
Waves from a Trajectory Viewpoint, Mon. Weather Rev., 145, 4109–4125,
https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-17-0165.1, 2017.
Risbey, J. S., Pook, M. J., McIntosh, P. C., Wheeler, M. C., and Hendon, H.
H.: On the Remote Drivers of Rainfall Variability in Australia, Mon. Weather Rev., 137,
3233–3253, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009MWR2861.1, 2009a.
Risbey, J. S., Pook, M. J., McIntosh, P. C., Ummenhofer, C. C., and Meyers,
G.: Characteristics and variability of synoptic features associated with cool
season rainfall in southeastern Australia, Int. J. Climatol., 29, 1595–1613,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1775, 2009b.
Saji, N. H., Goswami, B. N., Vinayachandran, P. N., and Yamagata, T.: A
dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean, Nature, 401, 360–363,
https://doi.org/10.1038/43854, 1999.
Saji, N. H., Ambrizzi, T., and Ferraz, S. E. T.: Indian Ocean Dipole mode
events and austral surface air temperature anomalies, Dynam. Atmos. Oceans, 39, 87–101,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2004.10.015, 2005.
Seneviratne, S. I., Corti, T., Davin, E. L., Hirschi, M., Jaeger, E. B.,
Lehner, I., Orlowsky, B., and Teuling, A. J.: Investigating soil
moisture–climate interactions in a changing climate: A review, Earth-Sci. Rev., 99, 125–161, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2010.02.004, 2010.
Simpkins, G. R., McGregor, S., Taschetto, A. S., Ciasto, L. M., and England,
M. H.: Tropical Connections to Climatic Change in the Extratropical Southern
Hemisphere: The Role of Atlantic SST Trends, J. Climate, 27, 4923–4936,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00615.1, 2014.
Simmonds, I. and Hope, P.: Seasonal and regional responses to changes in Australian soil moisture conditions, Int. J. Climatol., 18, 1105–1139, https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199808)18:10<1105::AID-JOC308>3.0.CO;2-G, 1998.
Student: The probable error of a mean, Biometrika, 6, 1–25, 1908.
Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Müller, W. A., Li, C., and Marotzke, J.: Dynamical
and thermodynamical drivers of variability in European summer heat extremes, Clim. Dynam., 54, 4351–4366, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05233-2, 2020.
Takaya, K. and Nakamura, H.: A Formulation of a Phase-Independent
Wave-Activity Flux for Stationary and Migratory Quasigeostrophic Eddies on a
Zonally Varying Basic Flow, J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 608–627, 2001.
Taylor, C., Cullen, B., D'Occhio, M., Rickards, L., and Eckard, R.: Trends in
wheat yields under representative climate futures: Implications for climate
adaptation, Agr. Syst., 164, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2017.12.007, 2018.
Timbal, B. and Hendon, H.: The role of tropical modes of variability
in recent rainfall deficits across the Murray-Darling Basin: TROPICAL
VARIABILITY AND RAINFALL DEFICIT IN THE MDB, Water Resour. Res., 47, W00G09,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009834, 2011.
Timbal, B., Power, S., Colman, R., Viviand, J., and Lirola, S.: Does
Soil Moisture Influence Climate Variability and Predictability over
Australia?, J. Climate, 15, 1230–1238,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1230:dsmicv>2.0.co;2, 2002.
Ummenhofer, C. C., England, M. H., McIntosh, P. C., Meyers, G. A., Pook, M.
J., Risbey, J. S., Gupta, A. S., and Taschetto, A. S.: What causes southeast
Australia's worst droughts?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L04706,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL036801, 2009.
van Rensch, P., Arblaster, J., Gallant, A. J. E., Cai, W., Nicholls, N., and
Durack, P. J.: Mechanisms causing east Australian spring rainfall differences
between three strong El Niño events, Clim. Dynam., 53, 3641–3659,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04732-1, 2019.
Wang, G. and Hendon, H. H.: Impacts of the Madden – Julian Oscillation on
wintertime Australian minimum temperatures and Southern Hemisphere
circulation, Clim. Dynam., 55, 3087–3099,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05432-x, 2020.
Wang, G., Hendon, H. H., Arblaster, J. M., Lim, E.-P., Abhik, S., and van
Rensch, P.: Compounding tropical and stratospheric forcing of the record low
Antarctic sea-ice in 2016, Nat. Commun., 10, 1–9,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07689-7, 2019.
Watterson, I. G.: Relationships between southeastern Australian rainfall and
sea surface temperatures examined using a climate model, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D10108,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012120, 2010.
Watterson, I. G.: Australian Rainfall Anomalies in 2018–2019 Linked to
Indo-Pacific Driver Indices Using ERA5 Reanalyses, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 125, e2020JD033041,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033041, 2020.
Wheeler, M. C. and Hendon, H. H.: An all-season real-time multivariate MJO
index:
Development of an index for monitoring and prediction, Mon. Weather
Rev., 132, 1917–1932, 2004.
White, C. J., Hudson, D., and Alves, O.: ENSO, the IOD and the intraseasonal
prediction of heat extremes across Australia using POAMA-2, Clim. Dynam., 43,
1791–1810, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-2007-2, 2014.
Wilson, E. A., Gordon, A. L., and Kim, D.: Observations of the Madden Julian
Oscillation during Indian Ocean Dipole events: IOD-MJO, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 2588–2599,
https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50241, 2013.
Wirth, V.: Waveguidability of idealized midlatitude jets and the limitations of ray tracing theory, Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 111–125, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-111-2020, 2020.
Short summary
Understanding what makes it hot in Australia in spring helps us better prepare for harmful impacts. We look at how the higher latitudes and tropics change the atmospheric circulation from early to late spring and how that changes maximum temperatures in Australia. We find that the relationship between maximum temperatures and the tropics is stronger in late spring than early spring. These findings could help improve forecasts of hot months in Australia in spring.
Understanding what makes it hot in Australia in spring helps us better prepare for harmful...
