Articles | Volume 4, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-963-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-963-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
14 Nov 2023
Research article |
| 14 Nov 2023
| 14 Nov 2023
The monthly evolution of precipitation and warm conveyor belts during the central southwest Asia wet season
Melissa Leah Breeden
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
Andrew Hoell
NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
John Robert Albers
NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
Kimberly Slinski
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
Related authors
Dillon Elsbury, Amy H. Butler, John R. Albers, Melissa L. Breeden, and Andrew O'Neil Langford
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5101–5117, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5101-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5101-2023, 2023
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One of the global hotspots where stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) of ozone takes place is over Pacific North America (PNA). However, we do not know how or if STT over PNA will change in response to climate change. Using climate model experiments forced with
worst-casescenario Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate change, we find that changes in net chemical production and transport of ozone in the lower stratosphere increase STT of ozone over PNA in the future.
Melissa L. Breeden, John R. Albers, and Andrew Hoell
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1183–1197, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1183-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1183-2022, 2022
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We use a statistical dynamical model to generate precipitation forecasts for lead times of 2–6 weeks over southwest Asia, which are needed to support humanitarian food distribution. The model signal-to-noise ratio is used to identify a smaller subset of forecasts with particularly high skill, so-called subseasonal forecasts of opportunity (SFOs). Precipitation SFOs are often related to slowly evolving tropical phenomena, namely the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Madden–Julian Oscillation.
John R. Albers, Amy H. Butler, Andrew O. Langford, Dillon Elsbury, and Melissa L. Breeden
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13035–13048, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13035-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13035-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Ozone transported from the stratosphere contributes to background ozone concentrations in the free troposphere and to surface ozone exceedance events that affect human health. The physical processes whereby the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulates North American stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone transport during spring are documented, and the usefulness of ENSO for predicting ozone events that may cause exceedances in surface air quality standards are assessed.
John R. Albers, Amy H. Butler, Melissa L. Breeden, Andrew O. Langford, and George N. Kiladis
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 433–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-433-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-433-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Weather variability controls the transport of ozone from the stratosphere to the Earth’s surface and water vapor from oceanic source regions to continental land masses. Forecasting these types of transport has high societal value because of the negative impacts of ozone on human health and the role of water vapor in governing precipitation variability. We use upper-level wind forecasts to assess the potential for predicting ozone and water vapor transport 3–6 weeks ahead of time.
Melissa L. Breeden, Amy H. Butler, John R. Albers, Michael Sprenger, and Andrew O'Neil Langford
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 2781–2794, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2781-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2781-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Prior research has found a maximum in deep stratosphere-to-troposphere mass/ozone transport over the western United States in boreal spring, which can enhance surface ozone concentrations, reducing air quality. We find that the winter-to-summer evolution of the north Pacific jet increases the frequency of stratospheric intrusions that drive transport, helping explain the observed maximum. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation affects the timing of the spring jet transition and therefore transport.
Dillon Elsbury, Amy H. Butler, John R. Albers, Melissa L. Breeden, and Andrew O'Neil Langford
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5101–5117, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5101-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5101-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
One of the global hotspots where stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) of ozone takes place is over Pacific North America (PNA). However, we do not know how or if STT over PNA will change in response to climate change. Using climate model experiments forced with
worst-casescenario Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate change, we find that changes in net chemical production and transport of ozone in the lower stratosphere increase STT of ozone over PNA in the future.
Melissa L. Breeden, John R. Albers, and Andrew Hoell
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1183–1197, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1183-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1183-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We use a statistical dynamical model to generate precipitation forecasts for lead times of 2–6 weeks over southwest Asia, which are needed to support humanitarian food distribution. The model signal-to-noise ratio is used to identify a smaller subset of forecasts with particularly high skill, so-called subseasonal forecasts of opportunity (SFOs). Precipitation SFOs are often related to slowly evolving tropical phenomena, namely the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Madden–Julian Oscillation.
John R. Albers, Amy H. Butler, Andrew O. Langford, Dillon Elsbury, and Melissa L. Breeden
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13035–13048, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13035-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13035-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Ozone transported from the stratosphere contributes to background ozone concentrations in the free troposphere and to surface ozone exceedance events that affect human health. The physical processes whereby the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulates North American stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone transport during spring are documented, and the usefulness of ENSO for predicting ozone events that may cause exceedances in surface air quality standards are assessed.
Amy McNally, Jossy Jacob, Kristi Arsenault, Kimberly Slinski, Daniel P. Sarmiento, Andrew Hoell, Shahriar Pervez, James Rowland, Mike Budde, Sujay Kumar, Christa Peters-Lidard, and James P. Verdin
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 3115–3135, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3115-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3115-2022, 2022
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The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS) global and Central Asia data streams described here generate routine estimates of snow, soil moisture, runoff, and other variables useful for tracking water availability. These data are hosted by NASA and USGS data portals for public use.
John R. Albers, Amy H. Butler, Melissa L. Breeden, Andrew O. Langford, and George N. Kiladis
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 433–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-433-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-433-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Weather variability controls the transport of ozone from the stratosphere to the Earth’s surface and water vapor from oceanic source regions to continental land masses. Forecasting these types of transport has high societal value because of the negative impacts of ozone on human health and the role of water vapor in governing precipitation variability. We use upper-level wind forecasts to assess the potential for predicting ozone and water vapor transport 3–6 weeks ahead of time.
Melissa L. Breeden, Amy H. Butler, John R. Albers, Michael Sprenger, and Andrew O'Neil Langford
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 2781–2794, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2781-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2781-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Prior research has found a maximum in deep stratosphere-to-troposphere mass/ozone transport over the western United States in boreal spring, which can enhance surface ozone concentrations, reducing air quality. We find that the winter-to-summer evolution of the north Pacific jet increases the frequency of stratospheric intrusions that drive transport, helping explain the observed maximum. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation affects the timing of the spring jet transition and therefore transport.
Young-Ha Kim, George N. Kiladis, John R. Albers, Juliana Dias, Masatomo Fujiwara, James A. Anstey, In-Sun Song, Corwin J. Wright, Yoshio Kawatani, François Lott, and Changhyun Yoo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 10027–10050, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10027-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10027-2019, 2019
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Reanalyses are widely used products of meteorological variables, generated using observational data and assimilation systems. We compare six modern reanalyses, with focus on their representation of equatorial waves which are important in stratospheric variability and stratosphere–troposphere exchange. Agreement/spreads among the reanalyses in the spectral properties and spatial distributions of the waves are examined, and satellite impacts on the wave representation in reanalyses are discussed.
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Ruoyi Cui, Nikolina Ban, Marie-Estelle Demory, Raffael Aellig, Oliver Fuhrer, Jonas Jucker, Xavier Lapillonne, and Christoph Schär
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Tristan H. Abbott and Paul A. O'Gorman
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Astrid Fremme, Paul J. Hezel, Øyvind Seland, and Harald Sodemann
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Davide Faranda
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 445–458, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-445-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-445-2020, 2020
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Short summary
We compare the month-to-month evolution of daily precipitation over central southwest Asia (CSWA), a data-sparse, food-insecure area prone to drought and flooding. The seasonality of CSWA precipitation aligns with the seasonality of warm conveyor belts (WCBs), the warm, rapidly ascending airstreams associated with extratropical storms, most common from February–April. El Niño conditions are related to more WCBs and precipitation and La Niña conditions the opposite, except in January.
We compare the month-to-month evolution of daily precipitation over central southwest Asia...
