Articles | Volume 5, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-733-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-733-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
08 May 2024
Research article |
| 08 May 2024
| 08 May 2024
Opposite spectral properties of Rossby waves during weak and strong stratospheric polar vortex events
Michael Schutte
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, Université de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Jacopo Riboldi
Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Related authors
Michael K. Schutte, Alice Portal, Simon H. Lee, and Gabriele Messori
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2240, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2240, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Large-scale motions in the atmosphere, namely atmospheric waves, greatly impact the weather that we experience at the Earth's surface. Here we investigate how waves in the troposphere (the lower 10 km of the atmosphere) and the stratosphere (above the troposphere) interact to affect surface weather. We find that tropospheric waves that are reflected back down by the stratosphere change weather patterns and temperatures in North America. These changes can indirectly affect the weather in Europe.
Lou Brett, Christopher J. White, Daniela I.V. Domeisen, Bart van den Hurk, Philip Ward, and Jakob Zscheischler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-182, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-182, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Compound events, where multiple weather or climate hazards occur together, pose significant risks to both society and the environment. These events, like simultaneous wind and rain, can have more severe impacts than single hazards. Our review of compound event research from 2012–2022 reveals a rise in studies, especially on events that occur concurrently, hot and dry events and compounding flooding. The review also highlights opportunities for research in the coming years.
Antonio Segalini, Jacopo Riboldi, Volkmar Wirth, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 997–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-997-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-997-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Planetary Rossby waves are created by topography and evolve in time. In this work, an analytical solution of this classical problem is proposed under the approximation of linear wave dynamics. The theory is able to describe reasonably well the evolution of the perturbation and compares well with full nonlinear simulations. Several relevant cases with single and double zonal jets are assessed with the theoretical framework
Michael K. Schutte, Alice Portal, Simon H. Lee, and Gabriele Messori
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2240, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2240, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Large-scale motions in the atmosphere, namely atmospheric waves, greatly impact the weather that we experience at the Earth's surface. Here we investigate how waves in the troposphere (the lower 10 km of the atmosphere) and the stratosphere (above the troposphere) interact to affect surface weather. We find that tropospheric waves that are reflected back down by the stratosphere change weather patterns and temperatures in North America. These changes can indirectly affect the weather in Europe.
Bastien François, Khalil Teber, Lou Brett, Richard Leeding, Luis Gimeno-Sotelo, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, and Emanuele Bevacqua
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2079, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2079, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Spatially compounding wind and precipitation (CWP) extremes can lead to severe impacts on society. We find that concurrent climate variability modes favor the occurrence of such wintertime spatially compounding events in the Northern Hemisphere, and can even amplify the number of regions and population exposed. Our analysis highlights the importance of considering the interplay between variability modes to improve risk management of such spatially compounding events.
Chaim I. Garfinkel, Zachary D. Lawrence, Amy H. Butler, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Irene Erner, Alexey Yu. Karpechko, Gerbrand Koren, Marta Abalos, Blanca Ayarzaguena, David Barriopedro, Natalia Calvo, Alvaro de la Cámara, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Judah Cohen, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Javier García-Serrano, Neil P. Hindley, Martin Jucker, Hera Kim, Robert W. Lee, Simon H. Lee, Marisol Osman, Froila M. Palmeiro, Inna Polichtchouk, Jian Rao, Jadwiga H. Richter, Chen Schwartz, Seok-Woo Son, Masakazu Taguchi, Nicholas L. Tyrrell, Corwin J. Wright, and Rachel W.-Y. Wu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1762, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1762, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Variability in the extratropical stratosphere and troposphere are coupled, and because of the longer timescales characteristic of the stratosphere, this allows for a window of opportunity for surface prediction. This paper assesses whether models used for operational prediction capture these coupling processes accurately. We find that most processes are too-weak, however downward coupling from the lower stratosphere to the near surface is too strong.
Rachel W.-Y. Wu, Gabriel Chiodo, Inna Polichtchouk, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1652, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1652, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Strong variations in the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex can profoundly affect surface weather extremes, therefore, accurately predicting the stratosphere can improve surface weather forecasts. The research reveals how uncertainty in the stratosphere is linked to the troposphere. The findings suggest that refining models to better represent the identified sources and impact regions in the troposphere is likely to improve the prediction of the stratosphere and its surface impacts.
Luca G. Severino, Chahan M. Kropf, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Christopher Fairless, Andries Jan de Vries, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1555–1578, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We combine climate projections from 30 climate models with a climate risk model to project winter windstorm damages in Europe under climate change. We study the uncertainty and sensitivity factors related to the modelling of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. We emphasize high uncertainties in the damage projections, with climate models primarily driving the uncertainty. We find climate change reshapes future European windstorm risk by altering damage locations and intensity.
Romain Pilon and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2247–2264, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2247-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2247-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces a new method for detecting atmospheric cloud bands to identify long convective cloud bands that extend from the tropics to the midlatitudes. The algorithm allows for easy use and enables researchers to study the life cycle and climatology of cloud bands and associated rainfall. This method provides insights into the large-scale processes involved in cloud band formation and their connections between different regions, as well as differences across ocean basins.
Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Dominik Büeler, C. Ole Wulff, Michael Sprenger, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 231–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-231-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-231-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The stratosphere is a layer of Earth's atmosphere found above the weather systems. Changes in the stratosphere can affect the winds and the storm tracks in the North Atlantic region for a relatively long time, lasting for several weeks and even months. We show that the stratosphere can be important for weather forecasts beyond 1 week, but more work is needed to improve the accuracy of these forecasts for 3–4 weeks.
Maria Pyrina, Wolfgang Wicker, Andries Jan de Vries, Georgios Fragkoulidis, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3088, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3088, 2024
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the atmospheric dynamics behind heatwaves, specifically of those occurring simultaneously across regions, known as concurrent heatwaves. We find that heatwaves are strongly modulated by Rossby wave packets, being Rossby waves whose amplitude has a local maximum and decays at larger distances. High amplitude Rossby wave packets increase the occurrence probabilities of concurrent and non-concurrent heatwaves by a factor of 15 and 18, respectively, over several regions globally.
David Martin Straus, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Sarah-Jane Lock, Franco Molteni, and Priyanka Yadav
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 1001–1018, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1001-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1001-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The global response to the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is potentially predictable. Yet the diabatic heating is uncertain even within a particular episode of the MJO. Experiments with a global model probe the limitations imposed by this uncertainty. The large-scale tropical heating is predictable for 25 to 45 d, yet the associated Rossby wave source that links the heating to the midlatitude circulation is predictable for 15 to 20 d. This limitation has not been recognized in prior work.
Gabriel Chiodo, Marina Friedel, Svenja Seeber, Daniela Domeisen, Andrea Stenke, Timofei Sukhodolov, and Franziska Zilker
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10451–10472, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10451-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10451-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric ozone protects the biosphere from harmful UV radiation. Anthropogenic activity has led to a reduction in the ozone layer in the recent past, but thanks to the implementation of the Montreal Protocol, the ozone layer is projected to recover. In this study, we show that projected future changes in Arctic ozone abundances during springtime will influence stratospheric climate and thereby actively modulate large-scale circulation changes in the Northern Hemisphere.
Jake W. Casselman, Joke F. Lübbecke, Tobias Bayr, Wenjuan Huo, Sebastian Wahl, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 471–487, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-471-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-471-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has remote effects on the tropical North Atlantic (TNA), but the connections' nonlinearity (strength of response to an increasing ENSO signal) is not always well represented in models. Using the Community Earth System Model version 1 – Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Mode (CESM-WACCM) and the Flexible Ocean and Climate Infrastructure version 1, we find that the TNA responds linearly to extreme El Niño but nonlinearly to extreme La Niña for CESM-WACCM.
Raphaël de Fondeville, Zheng Wu, Enikő Székely, Guillaume Obozinski, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 287–307, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-287-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-287-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a fully data-driven, interpretable, and computationally scalable framework to characterize sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), extract statistically significant precursors, and produce machine learning (ML) forecasts. By successfully leveraging the long-lasting impact of SSWs, the ML predictions outperform sub-seasonal numerical forecasts for lead times beyond 25 d. Post-processing numerical predictions using their ML counterparts yields a performance increase of up to 20 %.
Wolfgang Wicker, Inna Polichtchouk, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 81–93, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-81-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-81-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Sudden stratospheric warmings are extreme weather events where the winter polar stratosphere warms by about 25 K. An improved representation of small-scale gravity waves in sub-seasonal prediction models can reduce forecast errors since their impact on the large-scale circulation is predictable multiple weeks ahead. After a sudden stratospheric warming, vertically propagating gravity waves break at a lower altitude than usual, which strengthens the long-lasting positive temperature anomalies.
Marina Friedel, Gabriel Chiodo, Andrea Stenke, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13997–14017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13997-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13997-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In spring, winds the Arctic stratosphere change direction – an event called final stratospheric warming (FSW). Here, we examine whether the interannual variability in Arctic stratospheric ozone impacts the timing of the FSW. We find that Arctic ozone shifts the FSW to earlier and later dates in years with high and low ozone via the absorption of UV light. The modulation of the FSW by ozone has consequences for surface climate in ozone-rich years, which may result in better seasonal predictions.
Nora Bergner, Marina Friedel, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Darryn Waugh, and Gabriel Chiodo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13915–13934, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13915-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13915-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Polar vortex extremes, particularly situations with an unusually weak cyclonic circulation in the stratosphere, can influence the surface climate in the spring–summer time in the Southern Hemisphere. Using chemistry-climate models and observations, we evaluate the robustness of the surface impacts. While models capture the general surface response, they do not show the observed climate patterns in midlatitude regions, which we trace back to biases in the models' circulations.
Jake W. Casselman, Bernat Jiménez-Esteve, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1077–1096, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1077-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1077-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Using an atmospheric general circulation model, we analyze how the tropical North Atlantic influences the El Niño–Southern Oscillation connection towards the North Atlantic European region. We also focus on the lesser-known boreal spring and summer response following an El Niño–Southern Oscillation event. Our results show that altered tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures may cause different responses over the Caribbean region, consequently influencing the North Atlantic European region.
Zachary D. Lawrence, Marta Abalos, Blanca Ayarzagüena, David Barriopedro, Amy H. Butler, Natalia Calvo, Alvaro de la Cámara, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Javier García-Serrano, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Neil P. Hindley, Liwei Jia, Martin Jucker, Alexey Y. Karpechko, Hera Kim, Andrea L. Lang, Simon H. Lee, Pu Lin, Marisol Osman, Froila M. Palmeiro, Judith Perlwitz, Inna Polichtchouk, Jadwiga H. Richter, Chen Schwartz, Seok-Woo Son, Irene Erner, Masakazu Taguchi, Nicholas L. Tyrrell, Corwin J. Wright, and Rachel W.-Y. Wu
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 977–1001, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-977-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-977-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Forecast models that are used to predict weather often struggle to represent the Earth’s stratosphere. This may impact their ability to predict surface weather weeks in advance, on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales. We use data from many S2S forecast systems to characterize and compare the stratospheric biases present in such forecast models. These models have many similar stratospheric biases, but they tend to be worse in systems with low model tops located within the stratosphere.
Rachel Wai-Ying Wu, Zheng Wu, and Daniela I.V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 755–776, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-755-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-755-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate predictions of the stratospheric polar vortex can enhance surface weather predictability. Stratospheric events themselves are less predictable, with strong inter-event differences. We assess the predictability of stratospheric acceleration and deceleration events in a sub-seasonal prediction system, finding that the predictability of events is largely dependent on event magnitude, while extreme drivers of deceleration events are not fully represented in the model.
Peter Hitchcock, Amy Butler, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Tim Stockdale, James Anstey, Dann Mitchell, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Tongwen Wu, Yixiong Lu, Daniele Mastrangelo, Piero Malguzzi, Hai Lin, Ryan Muncaster, Bill Merryfield, Michael Sigmond, Baoqiang Xiang, Liwei Jia, Yu-Kyung Hyun, Jiyoung Oh, Damien Specq, Isla R. Simpson, Jadwiga H. Richter, Cory Barton, Jeff Knight, Eun-Pa Lim, and Harry Hendon
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5073–5092, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes an experimental protocol focused on sudden stratospheric warmings to be carried out by subseasonal forecast modeling centers. These will allow for inter-model comparisons of these major disruptions to the stratospheric polar vortex and their impacts on the near-surface flow. The protocol will lead to new insights into the contribution of the stratosphere to subseasonal forecast skill and new approaches to the dynamical attribution of extreme events.
Chen Schwartz, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Priyanka Yadav, Wen Chen, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 679–692, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-679-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-679-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Eleven operational forecast models that run on subseasonal timescales (up to 2 months) are examined to assess errors in their simulated large-scale stationary waves in the Northern Hemisphere winter. We found that models with a more finely resolved stratosphere generally do better in simulating the waves in both the stratosphere (10–50 km) and troposphere below. Moreover, a connection exists between errors in simulated time-mean convection in tropical regions and errors in the simulated waves.
Jacopo Riboldi, Efi Rousi, Fabio D'Andrea, Gwendal Rivière, and François Lott
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 449–469, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-449-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-449-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A revisited space and time spectral decomposition allows us to determine which harmonics dominate the upper-tropospheric flow evolution over a given time period as well as their propagation. This approach is used to identify Rossby wave patterns with a circumglobal extent, affecting weather evolution over different Northern Hemisphere regions. The results cast light on the processes originating and supporting these wave patterns, advocating at the same time for the usefulness of the technique.
Adam A. Scaife, Mark P. Baldwin, Amy H. Butler, Andrew J. Charlton-Perez, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Steven C. Hardiman, Peter Haynes, Alexey Yu Karpechko, Eun-Pa Lim, Shunsuke Noguchi, Judith Perlwitz, Lorenzo Polvani, Jadwiga H. Richter, John Scinocca, Michael Sigmond, Theodore G. Shepherd, Seok-Woo Son, and David W. J. Thompson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2601–2623, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Great progress has been made in computer modelling and simulation of the whole climate system, including the stratosphere. Since the late 20th century we also gained a much clearer understanding of how the stratosphere interacts with the lower atmosphere. The latest generation of numerical prediction systems now explicitly represents the stratosphere and its interaction with surface climate, and here we review its role in long-range predictions and projections from weeks to decades ahead.
Zheng Wu, Bernat Jiménez-Esteve, Raphaël de Fondeville, Enikő Székely, Guillaume Obozinski, William T. Ball, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 841–865, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-841-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-841-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use an advanced statistical approach to investigate the dynamics of the development of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events in the winter Northern Hemisphere. We identify distinct signals that are representative of these events and their event type at lead times beyond currently predictable lead times. The results can be viewed as a promising step towards improving the predictability of SSWs in the future by using more advanced statistical methods in operational forecasting systems.
Amy H. Butler and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 453–474, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-453-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-453-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We classify by wave geometry the stratospheric polar vortex during the final warming that occurs every spring in both hemispheres due to a combination of radiative and dynamical processes. We show that the shape of the vortex, as well as the timing of the seasonal transition, is linked to total column ozone prior to and surface weather following the final warming. These results have implications for prediction and our understanding of stratosphere–troposphere coupling processes in springtime.
Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Iuliia Polkova, Lukas Papritz, Paolo Ruggieri, Martin P. King, Panos J. Athanasiadis, Johanna Baehr, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 541–553, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-541-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-541-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the stratospheric influence on marine cold air outbreaks (MCAOs) in the North Atlantic using ERA-Interim reanalysis data. MCAOs are associated with severe Arctic weather, such as polar lows and strong surface winds. Sudden stratospheric events are found to be associated with more frequent MCAOs in the Barents and the Norwegian seas, affected by the anomalous circulation over Greenland and Scandinavia. Identification of MCAO precursors is crucial for improved long-range prediction.
Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Christian M. Grams, and Lukas Papritz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 373–388, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-373-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-373-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We cannot currently predict the weather over Europe beyond 2 weeks. The stratosphere provides a promising opportunity to go beyond that limit by providing a change in probability of certain weather regimes at the surface. However, not all stratospheric extreme events are followed by the same surface weather evolution. We show that this weather evolution is related to the tropospheric weather regime around the onset of the stratospheric extreme event for many stratospheric events.
Bernat Jiménez-Esteve and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 225–245, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-225-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-225-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric predictability over Europe on subseasonal to seasonal timescales remains limited. However, the remote impact from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can help to improve predictability. Research has suggested that the ENSO impact in the North Atlantic region is affected by nonlinearities. Here, we isolate the nonlinearities in the tropospheric pathway through the North Pacific, finding that a strong El Niño leads to a stronger and distinct impact compared to a strong La Niña.
Matthias Fischer, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Wolfgang A. Müller, and Johanna Baehr
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 129–146, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-129-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-129-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In a climate projection experiment with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), we find that a decline in the Atlantic Ocean meridional heat transport (OHT) is accompanied by a change in the seasonal cycle of the total OHT and its components. We found a northward shift of 5° and latitude-dependent shifts between 1 and 6 months in the seasonal cycle that are mainly associated with changes in the meridional velocity field rather than the temperature field.
Related subject area
Atmospheric teleconnections incl. stratosphere–troposphere coupling
Model spread in multidecadal North Atlantic Oscillation variability connected to stratosphere–troposphere coupling
Stratospheric influence on the winter North Atlantic storm track in subseasonal reforecasts
How do different pathways connect the stratospheric polar vortex to its tropospheric precursors?
A critical evaluation of decadal solar cycle imprints in the MiKlip historical ensemble simulations
The teleconnection of extreme El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events to the tropical North Atlantic in coupled climate models
Using large ensembles to quantify the impact of sudden stratospheric warmings and their precursors on the North Atlantic Oscillation
The stratosphere: a review of the dynamics and variability
Stratospheric downward wave reflection events modulate North American weather regimes and cold spells
Modulation of the El Niño teleconnection to the North Atlantic by the tropical North Atlantic during boreal spring and summer
Quantifying stratospheric biases and identifying their potential sources in subseasonal forecast systems
Stratospheric modulation of Arctic Oscillation extremes as represented by extended-range ensemble forecasts
The tropical route of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) teleconnections in a climate model
Decline in Etesian winds after large volcanic eruptions in the last millennium
Stationary wave biases and their effect on upward troposphere– stratosphere coupling in sub-seasonal prediction models
Stratospheric wave driving events as an alternative to sudden stratospheric warmings
Tropical influence on heat-generating atmospheric circulation over Australia strengthens through spring
Sudden stratospheric warmings during El Niño and La Niña: sensitivity to atmospheric model biases
Minimal impact of model biases on Northern Hemisphere El Niño–Southern Oscillation teleconnections
Resampling of ENSO teleconnections: accounting for cold-season evolution reduces uncertainty in the North Atlantic
The wave geometry of final stratospheric warming events
Origins of multi-decadal variability in sudden stratospheric warmings
Tropospheric eddy feedback to different stratospheric conditions in idealised baroclinic life cycles
Impacts of the North Atlantic Oscillation on winter precipitations and storm track variability in southeast Canada and the northeast United States
The role of Barents–Kara sea ice loss in projected polar vortex changes
Mechanisms and predictability of sudden stratospheric warming in winter 2018
On the intermittency of orographic gravity wave hotspots and its importance for middle atmosphere dynamics
The role of North Atlantic–European weather regimes in the surface impact of sudden stratospheric warming events
Nonlinearity in the tropospheric pathway of ENSO to the North Atlantic
Rémy Bonnet, Christine M. McKenna, and Amanda C. Maycock
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 913–926, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-913-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-913-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models underestimate multidecadal winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability. Understanding the origin of this weak variability is important for making reliable climate projections. We use multi-model climate simulations to explore statistical relationships with drivers that may contribute to NAO variability. We find a relationship between modelled stratosphere–troposphere coupling and multidecadal NAO variability, offering an avenue to improve the simulation of NAO variability.
Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Dominik Büeler, C. Ole Wulff, Michael Sprenger, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 231–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-231-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-231-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The stratosphere is a layer of Earth's atmosphere found above the weather systems. Changes in the stratosphere can affect the winds and the storm tracks in the North Atlantic region for a relatively long time, lasting for several weeks and even months. We show that the stratosphere can be important for weather forecasts beyond 1 week, but more work is needed to improve the accuracy of these forecasts for 3–4 weeks.
Raphael Harry Köhler, Ralf Jaiser, and Dörthe Handorf
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 1071–1086, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1071-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1071-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the local mechanisms of troposphere–stratosphere coupling on seasonal timescales during extended winter in the Northern Hemisphere. The detected tropospheric precursor regions exhibit very distinct mechanisms of coupling to the stratosphere, thus highlighting the importance of the time- and zonally resolved picture. Moreover, this study demonstrates that the ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic atmosphere model (ICON) can realistically reproduce troposphere–stratosphere coupling.
Tobias C. Spiegl, Ulrike Langematz, Holger Pohlmann, and Jürgen Kröger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 789–807, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-789-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the role of the solar cycle in atmospheric domains with the Max Plank Institute Earth System Model in high resolution (MPI-ESM-HR). We focus on the tropical upper stratosphere, Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter dynamics and potential surface imprints. We found robust solar signals at the tropical stratopause and a weak dynamical response in the NH during winter. However, we cannot confirm the importance of the 11-year solar cycle for decadal variability in the troposphere.
Jake W. Casselman, Joke F. Lübbecke, Tobias Bayr, Wenjuan Huo, Sebastian Wahl, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 471–487, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-471-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-471-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has remote effects on the tropical North Atlantic (TNA), but the connections' nonlinearity (strength of response to an increasing ENSO signal) is not always well represented in models. Using the Community Earth System Model version 1 – Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Mode (CESM-WACCM) and the Flexible Ocean and Climate Infrastructure version 1, we find that the TNA responds linearly to extreme El Niño but nonlinearly to extreme La Niña for CESM-WACCM.
Philip E. Bett, Adam A. Scaife, Steven C. Hardiman, Hazel E. Thornton, Xiaocen Shen, Lin Wang, and Bo Pang
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 213–228, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-213-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-213-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Sudden-stratospheric-warming (SSW) events can severely affect the subsequent weather at the surface. We use a large ensemble of climate model hindcasts to investigate features of the climate that make strong impacts more likely through negative NAO conditions. This allows a more robust assessment than using observations alone. Air pressure over the Arctic prior to an SSW and the zonal-mean zonal wind in the lower stratosphere have the strongest relationship with the subsequent NAO response.
Neal Butchart
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1237–1272, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1237-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1237-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In recent years, it has emerged that there is an affinity between stratospheric variability and surface events. Waves from the troposphere interacting with the mean flow drive much of the variability in the polar vortex, sudden stratospheric warmings and tropical quasi-biennial oscillation. Here we review the historical evolution of established knowledge of the stratosphere's global structure and dynamical variability, along with recent advances and theories, and identify outstanding challenges.
Gabriele Messori, Marlene Kretschmer, Simon H. Lee, and Vivien Wendt
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1215–1236, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1215-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1215-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Over 10 km above the ground, there is a region of the atmosphere called the stratosphere. While there is very little air in the stratosphere itself, its interactions with the lower parts of the atmosphere – where we live – can affect the weather. Here we study a specific example of such an interaction, whereby processes occurring at the boundary of the stratosphere can lead to a continent-wide drop in temperatures in North America during winter.
Jake W. Casselman, Bernat Jiménez-Esteve, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1077–1096, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1077-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1077-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Using an atmospheric general circulation model, we analyze how the tropical North Atlantic influences the El Niño–Southern Oscillation connection towards the North Atlantic European region. We also focus on the lesser-known boreal spring and summer response following an El Niño–Southern Oscillation event. Our results show that altered tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures may cause different responses over the Caribbean region, consequently influencing the North Atlantic European region.
Zachary D. Lawrence, Marta Abalos, Blanca Ayarzagüena, David Barriopedro, Amy H. Butler, Natalia Calvo, Alvaro de la Cámara, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Javier García-Serrano, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Neil P. Hindley, Liwei Jia, Martin Jucker, Alexey Y. Karpechko, Hera Kim, Andrea L. Lang, Simon H. Lee, Pu Lin, Marisol Osman, Froila M. Palmeiro, Judith Perlwitz, Inna Polichtchouk, Jadwiga H. Richter, Chen Schwartz, Seok-Woo Son, Irene Erner, Masakazu Taguchi, Nicholas L. Tyrrell, Corwin J. Wright, and Rachel W.-Y. Wu
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 977–1001, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-977-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-977-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Forecast models that are used to predict weather often struggle to represent the Earth’s stratosphere. This may impact their ability to predict surface weather weeks in advance, on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales. We use data from many S2S forecast systems to characterize and compare the stratospheric biases present in such forecast models. These models have many similar stratospheric biases, but they tend to be worse in systems with low model tops located within the stratosphere.
Jonas Spaeth and Thomas Birner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 883–903, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-883-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-883-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Past research has demonstrated robust stratosphere–troposphere dynamical coupling following stratospheric circulation extremes. Here, we use a large set of extended-range ensemble forecasts to robustly quantify the increased risk for tropospheric circulation extremes following stratospheric extreme events. In particular, we provide estimates of the fraction of tropospheric extremes that may be attributable to preceding stratospheric extremes.
Jorge L. García-Franco, Lesley J. Gray, Scott Osprey, Robin Chadwick, and Zane Martin
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 825–844, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-825-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-825-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper establishes robust links between the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and several features of tropical climate. Robust precipitation responses, as well as changes to the Walker circulation, were found to be robustly linked to the variability in the lower stratosphere associated with the QBO using a 500-year simulation of a state-of-the-art climate model.
Stergios Misios, Ioannis Logothetis, Mads F. Knudsen, Christoffer Karoff, Vassilis Amiridis, and Kleareti Tourpali
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 811–823, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-811-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-811-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the impact of strong volcanic eruptions on the northerly Etesian winds blowing in the eastern Mediterranean. Μodel simulations of the last millennium demonstrate a robust reduction in the total number of days with Etesian winds in the post-eruption summers. The decline in the Etesian winds is attributed to a weakened Indian summer monsoon in the post-eruption summer. These findings could improve seasonal predictions of the wind circulation in the eastern Mediterranean.
Chen Schwartz, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Priyanka Yadav, Wen Chen, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 679–692, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-679-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-679-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Eleven operational forecast models that run on subseasonal timescales (up to 2 months) are examined to assess errors in their simulated large-scale stationary waves in the Northern Hemisphere winter. We found that models with a more finely resolved stratosphere generally do better in simulating the waves in both the stratosphere (10–50 km) and troposphere below. Moreover, a connection exists between errors in simulated time-mean convection in tropical regions and errors in the simulated waves.
Thomas Reichler and Martin Jucker
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 659–677, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-659-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-659-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Variations in the stratospheric polar vortex, so-called vortex events, can improve predictions of surface weather and climate. There are various ways to detect such events, and here we use the amount of wave energy that propagates into the stratosphere. The new definition is tested against so-called stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs). We find that the wave definition has advantages over SSWs, for example in terms of a stronger surface response that follows the events.
Roseanna C. McKay, Julie M. Arblaster, and Pandora Hope
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 413–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-413-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding what makes it hot in Australia in spring helps us better prepare for harmful impacts. We look at how the higher latitudes and tropics change the atmospheric circulation from early to late spring and how that changes maximum temperatures in Australia. We find that the relationship between maximum temperatures and the tropics is stronger in late spring than early spring. These findings could help improve forecasts of hot months in Australia in spring.
Nicholas L. Tyrrell, Juho M. Koskentausta, and Alexey Yu. Karpechko
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 45–58, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-45-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-45-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
El Niño events are known to effect the variability of the wintertime stratospheric polar vortex. The observed relationship differs from what is seen in climate models. Climate models have errors in their average winds and temperature, and in this work we artificially reduce those errors to see how that changes the communication of El Niño events to the polar stratosphere. We find reducing errors improves stratospheric variability, but does not explain the differences with observations.
Nicholas L. Tyrrell and Alexey Yu. Karpechko
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 913–925, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-913-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-913-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (El Niño) affect the global climate. The Pacific-to-Europe connection relies on interactions of large atmospheric waves with winds and surface pressure. We looked at how mean errors in a climate model affect its ability to simulate the Pacific-to-Europe connection. We found that even large errors in the seasonal winds did not affect the response of the model to an El Niño event, which is good news for seasonal forecasts which rely on these connections.
Martin P. King, Camille Li, and Stefan Sobolowski
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 759–776, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-759-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-759-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We re-examine the uncertainty of ENSO teleconnection to the North Atlantic by considering the November–December and January–February months in the cold season, in addition to the conventional DJF months. This is motivated by previous studies reporting varying teleconnected atmospheric anomalies and the mechanisms concerned. Our results indicate an improved confidence in the patterns of the teleconnection. The finding may also have implications on research in predictability and climate impact.
Amy H. Butler and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 453–474, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-453-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-453-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We classify by wave geometry the stratospheric polar vortex during the final warming that occurs every spring in both hemispheres due to a combination of radiative and dynamical processes. We show that the shape of the vortex, as well as the timing of the seasonal transition, is linked to total column ozone prior to and surface weather following the final warming. These results have implications for prediction and our understanding of stratosphere–troposphere coupling processes in springtime.
Oscar Dimdore-Miles, Lesley Gray, and Scott Osprey
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 205–231, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-205-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-205-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Observations of the stratosphere span roughly half a century, preventing analysis of multi-decadal variability in circulation using these data. Instead, we rely on long simulations of climate models. Here, we use a model to examine variations in northern polar stratospheric winds and find they vary with a period of around 90 years. We show that this is possibly due to variations in the size of winds over the Equator. This result may improve understanding of Equator–polar stratospheric coupling.
Philip Rupp and Thomas Birner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 111–128, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-111-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-111-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use the simple framework of an idealised baroclinic life cycle to study the tropospheric eddy feedback to different stratospheric conditions and, hence, obtain insights into the fundamental processes of stratosphere–troposphere coupling – in particular, the processes involved in creating the robust equatorward shift in the tropospheric mid-latitude jet that has been observed following sudden stratospheric warming events.
Julien Chartrand and Francesco S. R. Pausata
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 731–744, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-731-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-731-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the winter climate of eastern North America using reanalysis data. Results show that negative phases are linked with an increase in frequency of winter storms developing on the east coast of the United States, resulting in much heavier snowfall over the eastern United States. On the contrary, an increase in cyclone activity over southeastern Canada results in slightly heavier precipitation during positive phases.
Marlene Kretschmer, Giuseppe Zappa, and Theodore G. Shepherd
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 715–730, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-715-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-715-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The winds in the polar stratosphere affect the weather in the mid-latitudes, making it important to understand potential changes in response to global warming. However, climate model projections disagree on how this so-called polar vortex will change in the future. Here we show that sea ice loss in the Barents and Kara (BK) seas plays a central role in this. The time when the BK seas become ice-free differs between models, which explains some of the disagreement regarding vortex projections.
Irene Erner, Alexey Y. Karpechko, and Heikki J. Järvinen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 657–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-657-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-657-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we investigate the role of the tropospheric forcing in the occurrence of the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) that took place in February 2018, its predictability and teleconnection with the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) by analysing the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble forecast. The purpose of the paper is to present the results of the analysis of the atmospheric circulation before and during the SSW and clarify the driving mechanisms.
Ales Kuchar, Petr Sacha, Roland Eichinger, Christoph Jacobi, Petr Pisoft, and Harald E. Rieder
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 481–495, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-481-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-481-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Our study focuses on the impact of topographic structures such as the Himalayas and Rocky Mountains, so-called orographic gravity-wave hotspots. These hotspots play an important role in the dynamics of the middle atmosphere, in particular in the lower stratosphere. We study intermittency and zonally asymmetric character of these hotspots and their effects on the upper stratosphere and mesosphere using a new detection method in various modeling and observational datasets.
Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Christian M. Grams, and Lukas Papritz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 373–388, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-373-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-373-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We cannot currently predict the weather over Europe beyond 2 weeks. The stratosphere provides a promising opportunity to go beyond that limit by providing a change in probability of certain weather regimes at the surface. However, not all stratospheric extreme events are followed by the same surface weather evolution. We show that this weather evolution is related to the tropospheric weather regime around the onset of the stratospheric extreme event for many stratospheric events.
Bernat Jiménez-Esteve and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 225–245, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-225-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-225-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric predictability over Europe on subseasonal to seasonal timescales remains limited. However, the remote impact from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can help to improve predictability. Research has suggested that the ENSO impact in the North Atlantic region is affected by nonlinearities. Here, we isolate the nonlinearities in the tropospheric pathway through the North Pacific, finding that a strong El Niño leads to a stronger and distinct impact compared to a strong La Niña.
Cited articles
Afargan-Gerstman, H., Polkova, I., Papritz, L., Ruggieri, P., King, M. P., Athanasiadis, P. J., Baehr, J., and Domeisen, D. I. V.: Stratospheric influence on North Atlantic marine cold air outbreaks following sudden stratospheric warming events, Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 541–553, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-541-2020, 2020. a
Afargan-Gerstman, H., Jiménez-Esteve, B., and Domeisen, D. I. V.: On the Relative Importance of Stratospheric and Tropospheric Drivers for the North Atlantic Jet Response to Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events, J. Climate, 35, 6453–6467, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0680.1, 2022. a, b
Baldwin, M. P. and Dunkerton, T. J.: Stratospheric Harbingers of Anomalous Weather Regimes, Science, 294, 581–584, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1063315, 2001. a, b
Baldwin, M. P., Ayarzagüena, B., Birner, T., Butchart, N., Butler, A. H., Charlton-Perez, A. J., Domeisen, D. I. V., Garfinkel, C. I., Garny, H., Gerber, E. P., Hegglin, M. I., Langematz, U., and Pedatella, N. M.: Sudden Stratospheric Warmings, Rev. Geophys., 59, e2020RG000708, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000708, 2021. a, b
Bett, P. E., Scaife, A. A., Hardiman, S. C., Thornton, H. E., Shen, X., Wang, L., and Pang, B.: Using large ensembles to quantify the impact of sudden stratospheric warmings and their precursors on the North Atlantic Oscillation, Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 213–228, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-213-2023, 2023. a
Boljka, L. and Birner, T.: Tropopause-level planetary wave source and its role in two-way troposphere–stratosphere coupling, Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 555–575, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-555-2020, 2020. a
Butler, A.: Table of major mid-winter SSWs in reanalyses products, NOAA, https://csl.noaa.gov/groups/csl8/sswcompendium/majorevents.html (last access: 11 August 2023), 2020. a
Butler, A. H., Sjoberg, J. P., Seidel, D. J., and Rosenlof, K. H.: A sudden stratospheric warming compendium, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 63–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-63-2017, 2017. a
Chan, C. J. and Plumb, R. A.: The Response to Stratospheric Forcing and Its Dependence on the State of the Troposphere, J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 2107–2115, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JAS2937.1, 2009. a, b
Charlton, A. J. and Polvani, L. M.: A New Look at Stratospheric Sudden Warmings. Part I: Climatology and Modeling Benchmarks, J. Climate, 20, 449–469, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3996.1, 2007. a, b, c
Charlton-Perez, A. J., Ferranti, L., and Lee, R. W.: The influence of the stratospheric state on North Atlantic weather regimes, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 144, 1140–1151, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3280, 2018. a, b, c
Davini, P., Cagnazzo, C., and Anstey, J. A.: A blocking view of the stratosphere-troposphere coupling, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 119, 11100–11115, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD021703, 2014. a
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J.-J., Park, B.-K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J.-N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011. a
de la Cámara, A., Birner, T., and Albers, J. R.: Are Sudden Stratospheric Warmings Preceded by Anomalous Tropospheric Wave Activity?, J. Climate, 32, 7173–7189, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0269.1, 2019. a
Dell'Aquila, A., Lucarini, V., Ruti, P., and Calmanti, S.: Hayashi spectra of the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude atmospheric variability in the NCEP-NCAR and ECMWF reanalyses, Clim. Dynam., 25, 639–652, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0048-x, 2005. a
Domeisen, D. I.: Estimating the Frequency of Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events From Surface Observations of the North Atlantic Oscillation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 3180–3194, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD030077, 2019. a, b
Domeisen, D. I. and Plumb, R. A.: Traveling planetary-scale Rossby waves in the winter stratosphere: The role of tropospheric baroclinic instability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L20817, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053684, 2012. a
Domeisen, D. I., Butler, A. H., Charlton-Perez, A. J., Ayarzagüena, B., Baldwin, M. P., Dunn-Sigouin, E., Furtado, J. C., Garfinkel, C. I., Hitchcock, P., Karpechko, A. Y., Kim, H., Knight, J., Lang, A. L., Lim, E.-P., Marshall, A., Roff, G., Schwartz, C., Simpson, I. R., Son, S.-W., and Taguchi, M.: The Role of the Stratosphere in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: 1. Predictability of the Stratosphere, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 125, e2019JD030920, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030920, 2020. a
Domeisen, D. I. V. and Butler, A. H.: Stratospheric drivers of extreme events at the Earth's surface, Commun. Earth Environ., 1, e2019JD030923, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-020-00060-z, 2020. a
Domeisen, D. I. V., Sun, L., and Chen, G.: The role of synoptic eddies in the tropospheric response to stratospheric variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 4933–4937, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50943, 2013. a, b, c
Domeisen, D. I. V., Martius, O., and Jiménez-Esteve, B.: Rossby Wave Propagation into the Northern Hemisphere Stratosphere: The Role of Zonal Phase Speed, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 2064–2071, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076886, 2018. a, b, c, d
Domeisen, D. I. V., Butler, A. H., Charlton-Perez, A. J., Ayarzagüena, B., Baldwin, M. P., Dunn-Sigouin, E., Furtado, J. C., Garfinkel, C. I., Hitchcock, P., Karpechko, A. Y., Kim, H., Knight, J., Lang, A. L., Lim, E.-P., Marshall, A., Roff, G., Schwartz, C., Simpson, I. R., Son, S.-W., and Taguchi, M.: The Role of the Stratosphere in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: 2. Predictability Arising From Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 125, e2019JD030 923, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030923, 2020a. a
Domeisen, D. I. V., Grams, C. M., and Papritz, L.: The role of North Atlantic–European weather regimes in the surface impact of sudden stratospheric warming events, Weather. Clim. Dynam., 1, 373–388, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-373-2020, 2020b. a, b
Edmon, H. J., Hoskins, B. J., and McIntyre, M. E.: Eliassen-Palm Cross Sections for the Troposphere, J. Atmos. Sci., 37, 2600–2616, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1980)037<2600:EPCSFT>2.0.CO;2, 1980. a
Efron, B. and Tibshirani, R.: An Introduction to the Bootstrap, Chapman and Hall/CRC, ISBN 9780429246593, https://doi.org/10.1201/9780429246593, 1994. a
Esler, J. G. and Scott, R. K.: Excitation of Transient Rossby Waves on the Stratospheric Polar Vortex and the Barotropic Sudden Warming, J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 3661–3682, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS3557.1, 2005. a
Finke, K., Hannachi, A., and Hirooka, T.: Exceptionally persistent Eurasian cold events and their stratospheric link, Asia-Pacif. J. Atm. Sci., 59, 95–111, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-022-00308-y, 2023. a
Fujiwara, M., Manney, G. L., Gray, L. J., and Wright, J. S.: SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP) Final Report, Tech. rep., DLR – Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, https://doi.org/10.17874/800dee57d13, 2022. a
Garfinkel, C. I., Waugh, D. W., and Gerber, E. P.: The Effect of Tropospheric Jet Latitude on Coupling between the Stratospheric Polar Vortex and the Troposphere, J. Climate, 26, 2077–2095, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00301.1, 2013. a
Hall, R. J., Mitchell, D. M., Seviour, W. J. M., and Wright, C. J.: Tracking the Stratosphere-to-Surface Impact of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 126, e2020JD033881, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033881, 2021. a
Hall, R. J., Mitchell, D. M., Seviour, W. J. M., and Wright, C. J.: Surface hazards in North-west Europe following sudden stratospheric warming events, Environ. Res. Lett., 18, 064002, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acd0c3, 2023. a
Harnik, N. and Lindzen, R. S.: The Effect of Reflecting Surfaces on the Vertical Structure and Variability of Stratospheric Planetary Waves, J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 2872–2894, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2001)058<2872:TEORSO>2.0.CO;2, 2001. a
Hartmann, D. L.: Some Aspects of Stratospheric Dynamics, in: Issues in Atmospheric and Oceanic Modeling, vol. 28 of Advances in Geophysics, edited by: Saltzman, B., Elsevier, 219–247, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0065-2687(08)60225-3, 1985. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020. a
Hinssen, Y., van Delden, A., and Opsteegh, T.: Influence of sudden stratospheric warmings on tropospheric winds, Meteorol. Z., 20, 259–266, https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2011/0503, 2011. a
Hitchcock, P. and Haynes, P. H.: Stratospheric control of planetary waves, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 11884–11892, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071372, 2016. a, b, c
Hitchcock, P. and Simpson, I. R.: Quantifying Eddy Feedbacks and Forcings in the Tropospheric Response to Stratospheric Sudden Warmings, J. Atmos. Sci., 73, 3641–3657, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-16-0056.1, 2016. a, b
Hitchcock, P., Butler, A., Charlton-Perez, A., Garfinkel, C. I., Stockdale, T., Anstey, J., Mitchell, D., Domeisen, D. I. V., Wu, T., Lu, Y., Mastrangelo, D., Malguzzi, P., Lin, H., Muncaster, R., Merryfield, B., Sigmond, M., Xiang, B., Jia, L., Hyun, Y.-K., Oh, J., Specq, D., Simpson, I. R., Richter, J. H., Barton, C., Knight, J., Lim, E.-P., and Hendon, H.: Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts, Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5073–5092, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022, 2022. a
Kodera, K., Mukougawa, H., and Fujii, A.: Influence of the vertical and zonal propagation of stratospheric planetary waves on tropospheric blockings, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 8333–8345, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50650, 2013. a
Kolstad, E. W., Breiteig, T., and Scaife, A. A.: The association between stratospheric weak polar vortex events and cold air outbreaks in the Northern Hemisphere, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 136, 886–893, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.620, 2010. a
Kolstad, E. W., Lee, S. H., Butler, A. H., Domeisen, D. I., and Wulff, C. O.: Diverse surface signatures of stratospheric polar vortex anomalies, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 127, e2022JD037422, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037422, 2022. a
Limpasuvan, V., Hartmann, D. L., Thompson, D. W. J., Jeev, K., and Yung, Y. L.: Stratosphere-troposphere evolution during polar vortex intensification, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 110, D24101, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006302, 2005. a
Madden, R. A. and Labitzke, K.: A free rossby wave in the troposphere and stratosphere during January 1979, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 86, 1247–1254, https://doi.org/10.1029/JC086iC02p01247, 1981. a
Matsuno, T.: A Dynamical Model of the Stratospheric Sudden Warming, J. Atmos. Sci., 28, 1479–1494, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1971)028<1479:ADMOTS>2.0.CO;2, 1971. a, b
Mechoso, C. R. and Hartmann, D. L.: An Observational Study of Traveling Planetary Waves in the Southern Hemisphere, J. Atmos. Sci., 39, 1921–1935, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1982)039<1921:AOSOTP>2.0.CO;2, 1982. a
Oehrlein, J., Chiodo, G., and Polvani, L. M.: The effect of interactive ozone chemistry on weak and strong stratospheric polar vortex events, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10531–10544, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10531-2020, 2020. a, b
Polvani, L. M. and Waugh, D. W.: Upward Wave Activity Flux as a Precursor to Extreme Stratospheric Events and Subsequent Anomalous Surface Weather Regimes, J. Climate, 17, 3548–3554, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<3548:UWAFAA>2.0.CO;2, 2004. a
Randel, W. J. and Held, I. M.: Phase Speed Spectra of Transient Eddy Fluxes and Critical Layer Absorption, J. Atmos. Sci., 48, 688–697, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1991)048<0688:PSSOTE>2.0.CO;2, 1991. a, b, c, d
Reichler, T. and Jucker, M.: Stratospheric wave driving events as an alternative to sudden stratospheric warmings, Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 659–677, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-659-2022, 2022. a
Rhodes, C. T., Limpasuvan, V., and Orsolini, Y. J.: Eastward-propagating planetary waves prior to the January 2009 sudden stratospheric warming, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 126, e2020JD033696, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033696, 2021. a, b
Riboldi, J. and Schutte, M.: Space-time spectra of Northern Hemispheric Rossby waves during extended winter, Uppsala University [data set], https://doi.org/10.57804/8vv7-jn36, 2024. a
Riboldi, J., Lott, F., D'Andrea, F., and Rivière, G.: On the Linkage Between Rossby Wave Phase Speed, Atmospheric Blocking, and Arctic Amplification, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL087796, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087796, 2020. a, b, c, d
Scaife, A. A., Karpechko, A. Y., Baldwin, M. P., Brookshaw, A., Butler, A. H., Eade, R., Gordon, M., MacLachlan, C., Martin, N., Dunstone, N., and Smith, D.: Seasonal winter forecasts and the stratosphere, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 17, 51–56, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.598, 2016. a, b
Schutte, M. K.: NH Planetary-Scale Circulation in Troposphere and Stratosphere: A Spectral and Dynamical Perspective, MS thesis, Uppsala University, LUVAL, https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-498929 (last access: 20 August 2023), 2023. a
Sjoberg, J. P. and Birner, T.: Transient Tropospheric Forcing of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings, J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 3420–3432, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-11-0195.1, 2012. a
Smith, K. L. and Scott, R. K.: The role of planetary waves in the tropospheric jet response to stratospheric cooling, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 2904–2911, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL067849, 2016. a
Smith, K. L., Polvani, L. M., and Tremblay, L. B.: The Impact of Stratospheric Circulation Extremes on Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent, J. Climate, 31, 7169–7183, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0495.1, 2018. a
Song, Y. and Robinson, W. A.: Dynamical Mechanisms for Stratospheric Influences on the Troposphere, J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 1711–1725, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2004)061<1711:DMFSIO>2.0.CO;2, 2004. a, b
Spaeth, J. and Birner, T.: Stratospheric modulation of Arctic Oscillation extremes as represented by extended-range ensemble forecasts, Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 883–903, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-883-2022, 2022. a
Sussman, H., Raghavendra, A., Roundy, P., and Dai, A.: Trends in northern midlatitude atmospheric wave power from 1950 to 2099, Clim. Dynam., 54, 2903–2918, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05143-3, 2020. a
Thompson, D. W. J., Furtado, J. C., and Shepherd, T. G.: On the Tropospheric Response to Anomalous Stratospheric Wave Drag and Radiative Heating, J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 2616–2629, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS3771.1, 2006. a
Tripathi, O. P., Charlton-Perez, A., Sigmond, M., and Vitart, F.: Enhanced long-range forecast skill in boreal winter following stratospheric strong vortex conditions, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 104007, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/104007, 2015. a
Waugh, D. W. and Dritschel, D. G.: The Dependence of Rossby Wave Breaking on the Vertical Structure of the Polar Vortex, J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 2359–2375, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1999)056<2359:TDORWB>2.0.CO;2, 1999. a
Wheeler, M. and Kiladis, G. N.: Convectively coupled equatorial waves: Analysis of clouds and temperature in the wavenumber–frequency domain, J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 374–399, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1999)056<0374:CCEWAO>2.0.CO;2, 1999. a
White, I. P., Garfinkel, C. I., Gerber, E. P., Jucker, M., Hitchcock, P., and Rao, J.: The Generic Nature of the Tropospheric Response to Sudden Stratospheric Warmings, J. Climate, 33, 5589–5610, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0697.1, 2020. a, b, c
White, I. P., Garfinkel, C. I., and Hitchcock, P.: On the Tropospheric Response to Transient Stratospheric Momentum Torques, J. Atmos. Sci., 79, 2041–2058, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-21-0237.1, 2022. a
Wirth, V. and Polster, C.: The problem of diagnosing jet waveguidability in the presence of large-amplitude eddies, J. Atmos. Sci., 78, 3137–3151, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-20-0292.1, 2021. a
Wu, R. W.-Y., Wu, Z., and Domeisen, D. I. V.: Differences in the sub-seasonal predictability of extreme stratospheric events, Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 755–776, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-755-2022, 2022. a
Zhang, J., Zheng, H., Xu, M., Yin, Q., Zhao, S., Tian, W., and Yang, Z.: Impacts of stratospheric polar vortex changes on wintertime precipitation over the northern hemisphere, Clim. Dynam., 58, 3155–3171, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-06088-x, 2022. a
Zhang, M., Yang, X.-Y., and Huang, Y.: Impacts of Sudden Stratospheric Warming on Extreme Cold Events in Early 2021: An Ensemble-Based Sensitivity Analysis, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2021GL096840, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL096840, 2022. a
Short summary
The winter circulation in the stratosphere, a layer of the Earth’s atmosphere between 10 and 50 km height, is tightly linked to the circulation in the lower atmosphere determining our daily weather. This interconnection happens in the form of waves propagating in and between these two layers. Here, we use space–time spectral analysis to show that disruptions and enhancements of the stratospheric circulation modify the shape and propagation of waves in both layers.
The winter circulation in the stratosphere, a layer of the Earth’s atmosphere between 10 and 50...
