Articles | Volume 5, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-959-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-959-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
24 Jul 2024
Research article |
| 24 Jul 2024
| 24 Jul 2024
ClimaMeter: contextualizing extreme weather in a changing climate
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, IPSL, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
London Mathematical Laboratory, 8 Margravine Gardens, London, W6 8RH, UK
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique/IPSL, École Normale Supérieure, PSL Research University, Sorbonne Université, École Polytechnique, IP Paris, CNRS, Paris, 75005, France
Gabriele Messori
Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
Swedish Centre for Impacts of Climate Extremes (climes), Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Erika Coppola
The Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy
Tommaso Alberti
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy
Mathieu Vrac
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, IPSL, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Flavio Pons
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, IPSL, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Pascal Yiou
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, IPSL, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Marion Saint Lu
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, IPSL, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Andreia N. S. Hisi
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, IPSL, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Sorbonne Université, Paris, France
Patrick Brockmann
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, IPSL, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Stavros Dafis
National Observatory of Athens, Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, I. Metaxa & Vas. Pavlou, P. Penteli (Lofos Koufou), 15236 Athens, Greece
Data4Risk, Paris, France
Gianmarco Mengaldo
College of Design and Engineering, National University of Singapore, Singapore
Department of Aeronautics, Faculty of Engineering, Imperial College London, London, UK
Robert Vautard
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, IPSL, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
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Emmanouil Flaounas, Stavros Dafis, Silvio Davolio, Davide Faranda, Christian Ferrarin, Katharina Hartmuth, Assaf Hochman, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Samira Khodayar, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Florian Pantillon, Platon Patlakas, Michael Sprenger, and Iris Thurnherr
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 1515–1538, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1515-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1515-2025, 2025
Short summary
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We present two forecasting methods for extreme precipitation and wind in Europe, using stochastic weather generators and past atmospheric patterns. One targets precipitation via weather model reforecasts; the other predicts wind from large-scale patterns. Both outperform standard weather models up to 10 days ahead, offering improved accuracy for both individual and compound extreme events.
Florian Börgel, Itzel Ruvalcaba Baroni, Leonie Barghorn, Leonard Borchert, Bronwyn Cahill, Cyril Dutheil, Leonie Esters, Malgorzata Falarz, Helena L. Filipsson, Matthias Gröger, Jari Hänninen, Magnus Hieronymus, Erko Jakobsen, Mehdi Pasha Karami, Karol Kulinski, Taavi Liblik, H. E. Markus Meier, Gabriele Messori, Lev Naumov, Thomas Neumann, Piia Post, Gregor Rehder, Anna Rutgersson, and Georg Sebastian Voelker
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5496, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5496, 2025
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This review explains how weather patterns, guided by the polar jet stream, influence the Baltic Sea’s climate and ecosystem. It covers the NAO, blocking events and other processes and discusses how they affect temperature, rainfall, and storms from days to decades. These shifts then impact oxygen levels, productivity, and acidification in the Baltic Sea. Physical links are fairly well known, but biogeochemical pathways remain uncertain.
Germain Bénard, Marion Gehlen, and Mathieu Vrac
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4680, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4680, 2025
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Climate change is transforming ocean ecosystem dynamics. We used causality methods to study how the relationships between ocean physics and biogeochemistry will change in the North Atlantic over the next century. By analyzing five different climate models, we discovered that environmental drivers' influence on ocean productivity evolves in complex ways under global warming. One environmental driver can become of major importance while others can become irrelevant.
Kai Kornuber, Emanuele Bevacqua, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Wiebke S. Jäger, Pauline Rivoire, Cassandra D. W. Rogers, Fabiola Banfi, Fulden Batibeniz, James Carruthers, Carlo de Michele, Silvia de Angeli, Cristina Deidda, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Andreas H. Fink, Henrique M. D. Goulart, Katharina Küpfer, Patrick Ludwig, Douglas Maraun, Gabriele Messori, Shruti Nath, Fiachra O’Loughlin, Joaquim G. Pinto, Benjamin Poschlod, Alexandre M. Ramos, Colin Raymond, Andreia F. S. Ribeiro, Deepti Singh, Laura Suarez Gutierrez, Philip J. Ward, and Christopher J. White
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4683, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4683, 2025
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Impacts from extreme weather events are becoming increasingly severe under global warming, in particular when events occur simultaneously or successively. While these complex event combinations are often difficult to analyse as impact data, early warning schemes or modelling frameworks might not be fit for purpose. In this perspective we reflect on the usability of compound event research to bridge the gap between academic research and real-world applications, by formulating a set of guidelines.
Lia Rapella, Tommaso Alberti, Davide Faranda, and Philippe Drobinski
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 1339–1363, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1339-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1339-2025, 2025
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Extreme weather events pose increasing challenges for aviation, including flight disruptions and infrastructure damage. This study examines the influence of anthropogenic climate change on four recent major storms across Europe, the USA, and East Asia. Our research underscores the growing intensity of extreme storms, driven by human-induced climate change, stressing the need to adapt aviation strategies to an increasingly hazardous environment.
Ni Li, Wim Thiery, Shorouq Zahra, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Koffi Worou, Murathan Kurfalı, Seppe Lampe, Paul Muñoz, Clare Flynn, Camila Trigoso, Joakim Nivre, Jakob Zscheischler, and Gabriele Messori
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4891, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4891, 2025
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Climate extremes threaten society and ecosystems. Understanding impacts is critical, despite open databases like EM-DAT and DesInventar, reliable impact data remain scattered across various text sources. Wikimpacts 1.0, using GPT4o, provides comprehensive socio-economic impact data on 2,928 events from 1034 to 2024. It offers broader storm coverage and finer spatial resolution impact data than EM-DAT, showcasing the potential of natural language processing to enhance climate impact datasets.
Paul C. Astagneau, Raul R. Wood, Mathieu Vrac, Sven Kotlarski, Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar, Bastien François, and Manuela I. Brunner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 5695–5718, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5695-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5695-2025, 2025
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To study floods and droughts that are likely to change in the future, we use climate projections from climate models. However, we first need to adjust the systematic biases of these projections at the catchment scale before using them in hydrological models. Our study compares statistical methods that can adjust these biases but specifically for climate projections that enable a quantification of internal climate variability. We provide recommendations on the most appropriate methods.
Camille Cadiou and Pascal Yiou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1759–1778, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1759-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1759-2025, 2025
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Cold spells affect healthcare and energy systems. Global warming is expected to reduce the amplitude and frequency of these climate extremes. We show that the intense cold spells of the 20th century will become nearly impossible in France by the end of the 21st century for high warming levels. We also demonstrate that events in France as intense as that in 1985 may still occur in the near future. These events are linked to specific atmospheric patterns that bring cold air from high latitudes into Europe.
Sina Loriani, Yevgeny Aksenov, David I. Armstrong McKay, Govindasamy Bala, Andreas Born, Cristiano Mazur Chiessi, Henk A. Dijkstra, Jonathan F. Donges, Sybren Drijfhout, Matthew H. England, Alexey V. Fedorov, Laura C. Jackson, Kai Kornhuber, Gabriele Messori, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Stefanie Rynders, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Bablu Sinha, Steven C. Sherwood, Didier Swingedouw, and Thejna Tharammal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1611–1653, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1611-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1611-2025, 2025
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In this work, we draw on palaeo-records, observations, and modelling studies to review tipping points in the ocean overturning circulations, monsoon systems, and global atmospheric circulations. We find indications for tipping in the ocean overturning circulations and the West African monsoon, with potentially severe impacts on the Earth system and humans. Tipping in the other considered systems is regarded as conceivable but is currently not sufficiently supported by evidence.
Denis Allard, Mathieu Vrac, Bastien François, and Iñaki García de Cortázar-Atauri
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 4711–4738, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-4711-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-4711-2025, 2025
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Atmospheric variables from climate models often present biases relative to the past. In order to use these models to assess the impact of climate change on processes of interest, it is necessary to correct these biases. We tested several Multivariate Bias Correction Methods (MBCMs) for 5 physical variables that are input variables for 4 process models. We provide recommendations regarding the use of MBCMs when multivariate and time dependent processes are involved.
Clare M. Flynn, Julia Moemken, Joaquim G. Pinto, Michael K. Schutte, and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 4431–4453, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-4431-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-4431-2025, 2025
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We created a new, publicly available, database of the top 50 most extreme European winter windstorms from each of four different meteorological input data sets covering the years 1995–2015. We found variability in all aspects of our database, from which storms were included in the top 50 storms for each input to the storms' spatial variability. We urge users of our database to consider the storms as identified from two or more input sources within our database where possible.
Kerry Emanuel, Tommaso Alberti, Stella Bourdin, Suzana J. Camargo, Davide Faranda, Emmanouil Flaounas, Juan Jesus Gonzalez-Aleman, Chia-Ying Lee, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Claudia Pasquero, Alice Portal, Hamish Ramsay, Marco Reale, and Romualdo Romero
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 901–926, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-901-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-901-2025, 2025
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Storms strongly resembling hurricanes are sometimes observed to form well outside the tropics, even in polar latitudes. They behave capriciously, developing very rapidly and then dying just as quickly. We show that strong dynamical processes in the atmosphere can sometimes cause it to become much colder locally than the underlying ocean, creating the conditions for hurricanes to form but only over small areas and for short times. We call the resulting storms "CYCLOPs".
James M. Ciarlo', Monique Borg Inguanez, Erika Coppola, Aaron Micallef, and David Mifsud
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1391–1407, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1391-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1391-2025, 2025
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Climate change threatens biodiversity, especially that of arthropods, by altering species' habitats and ecological roles. This study presents a proof of concept for a novel index that models species distributions based on climatic niches, using regional climate model data and focusing on Mediterranean arthropods. The index enables quick assessments of species' climate resilience and offers potential applications for projecting ecological impacts of future climate changes.
Robin Noyelle, Davide Faranda, Yoann Robin, Mathieu Vrac, and Pascal Yiou
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 817–839, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-817-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-817-2025, 2025
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Properties of extreme meteorological and climatological events are changing under human-caused climate change. Extreme event attribution methods seek to estimate the contribution of global warming in the probability and intensity changes of extreme events. Here we propose a procedure to estimate these quantities for the flow analogue method, which compares the observed event to similar events in the past.
Gianmarco Mengaldo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3509, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3509, 2025
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The scientific method is the cornerstone of human progress across all branches of the natural and applied sciences. In the era of Generative Artificial Intelligence (Gen AI), there are discussions on how AI systems may discover new knowledge. We argue that human complex reasoning for scientific discovery remains of vital importance, and it can be efficiently complemented via explainable AI.
Duncan Pappert, Alexandre Tuel, Dim Coumou, Mathieu Vrac, and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 769–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-769-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-769-2025, 2025
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This study compares the dynamical structures that characterise long-lasting (persistent) and short hot spells in Western Europe. We find differences in large-scale atmospheric flow patterns during the events and particular soil moisture evolutions, which can account for the variation in event duration. There is variability in how drivers combine in individual events. Understanding persistent heat extremes can help improve their representation in models and ultimately their prediction.
Germain Bénard, Marion Gehlen, and Mathieu Vrac
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1085–1102, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1085-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1085-2025, 2025
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We introduce a novel approach to compare Earth system model output using a causality-based approach. The analysis of interactions between atmospheric, oceanic and biogeochemical variables in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre highlights the dynamics of each model. This method reveals potential underlying causes of model differences, offering a tool for enhanced model evaluation and improved understanding of complex Earth system dynamics under past and future climates.
Laura Hasbini, Pascal Yiou, Laurent Boissier, and Arthur Perringaux
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3138, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3138, 2025
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Winter windstorms are the main natural hazard for Generali France. We present a method linking storm events to insurance claims, with a focus on clustered events (multiple storms hitting the same region within 96 h). These account for 85 % of losses since 1998 and include major events like Lothar and Klaus. Damaging storms are twice as likely to occur in clusters, underlining the need to account for their impact in risk, loss, and reinsurance modelling.
Ségolène Crossouard, Soulivanh Thao, Thomas Dubos, Masa Kageyama, Mathieu Vrac, and Yann Meurdesoif
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1418, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1418, 2025
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Current atmospheric models are limited by the computational time required for physical processes, known as physical parameterizations. To address this, we developed neural network-based emulators to replace these parameterizations in the IPSL climate model, using a simplified aquaplanet setup. We found that incorporating some physical knowledge, such as latent variables, into the learning process can improve predictions.
Michael K. Schutte, Alice Portal, Simon H. Lee, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 521–548, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-521-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-521-2025, 2025
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Large-scale motions in the atmosphere, namely atmospheric waves, greatly impact the weather that we experience at the Earth's surface. Here we investigate how waves in the troposphere (the lower 10 km of the atmosphere) and the stratosphere (above the troposphere) interact to affect surface weather. We find that tropospheric waves that are reflected back down by the stratosphere change weather patterns and temperatures in North America. These changes can indirectly affect the weather in Europe.
Ferran Lopez-Marti, Mireia Ginesta, Davide Faranda, Anna Rutgersson, Pascal Yiou, Lichuan Wu, and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 169–187, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-169-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-169-2025, 2025
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Explosive cyclones and atmospheric rivers are two main drivers of extreme weather in Europe. In this study, we investigate their joint changes in future climates over the North Atlantic. Our results show that both the concurrence of these events and the intensity of atmospheric rivers increase by the end of the century across different future scenarios. Furthermore, explosive cyclones associated with atmospheric rivers last longer and are deeper than those without atmospheric rivers.
Camille Cadiou and Pascal Yiou
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1-2025, 2025
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Extreme cold winter temperatures in Europe have huge societal impacts. This study focuses on extreme cold events, such as the winter of 1963 in France, which are expected to become rarer due to climate change. We use a light and efficient rare-event algorithm to simulate a large number of extreme cold winters over France to analyse their characteristics. We find that despite fewer occurrences, their intensity remains steady. We analyse prevailing atmospheric circulation during these events.
Leonardo Olivetti and Gabriele Messori
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7915–7962, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7915-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7915-2024, 2024
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Data-driven models are becoming a viable alternative to physics-based models for weather forecasting up to 15 d into the future. However, it is unclear whether they are as reliable as physics-based models when forecasting weather extremes. We evaluate their performance in forecasting near-surface cold, hot, and windy extremes globally. We find that data-driven models can compete with physics-based models and that the choice of the best model mainly depends on the region and type of extreme.
Florian Pantillon, Silvio Davolio, Elenio Avolio, Carlos Calvo-Sancho, Diego Saul Carrió, Stavros Dafis, Emanuele Silvio Gentile, Juan Jesus Gonzalez-Aleman, Suzanne Gray, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Platon Patlakas, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Didier Ricard, Antonio Ricchi, Claudio Sanchez, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1187–1205, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1187-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1187-2024, 2024
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Cyclone Ianos of September 2020 was a high-impact but poorly predicted medicane (Mediterranean hurricane). A community effort of numerical modelling provides robust results to improve prediction. It is found that the representation of local thunderstorms controlled the interaction of Ianos with a jet stream at larger scales and its subsequent evolution. The results help us understand the peculiar dynamics of medicanes and provide guidance for the next generation of weather and climate models.
Gabriele Messori, Antonio Segalini, and Alexandre M. Ramos
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1207–1225, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1207-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1207-2024, 2024
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Simultaneous heatwaves or cold spells in remote geographical regions have potentially far-reaching impacts on society and the environment. Despite this, we have little knowledge of when and where these extreme events have occurred in the past decades. In this paper, we present a summary of past simultaneous heatwaves or cold spells and provide a computer program to enable other researchers to study them.
Yan Yang, Patrick Brockmann, Carolina Galdino, Uwe Schindler, and Frédéric Gazeau
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3771–3780, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3771-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3771-2024, 2024
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Studies investigating the effects of ocean acidification on marine organisms and communities have been steadily increasing. To facilitate data comparison, a data compilation hosted by the PANGAEA Data Publisher was initiated in 2008 and is updated on a regular basis. By November 2023, a total of 1501 datasets (~25 million data points) from 1554 papers have been archived. To filter and access relevant biological response data from this compilation, a user-friendly portal was launched in 2018.
Marco Gaetani, Gabriele Messori, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Shivangi Tiwari, M. Carmen Alvarez Castro, and Qiong Zhang
Clim. Past, 20, 1735–1759, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1735-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1735-2024, 2024
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Palaeoclimate reconstructions suggest that, around 6000 years ago, a greening of the Sahara took place, accompanied by climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere at middle to high latitudes. In this study, a climate model is used to investigate how this drastic environmental change in the Sahara impacted remote regions. Specifically, climate simulations reveal significant modifications in atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic, affecting North American and European climates.
Antonio Segalini, Jacopo Riboldi, Volkmar Wirth, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 997–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-997-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-997-2024, 2024
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Planetary Rossby waves are created by topography and evolve in time. In this work, an analytical solution of this classical problem is proposed under the approximation of linear wave dynamics. The theory is able to describe reasonably well the evolution of the perturbation and compares well with full nonlinear simulations. Several relevant cases with single and double zonal jets are assessed with the theoretical framework
Sebastian Sippel, Clair Barnes, Camille Cadiou, Erich Fischer, Sarah Kew, Marlene Kretschmer, Sjoukje Philip, Theodore G. Shepherd, Jitendra Singh, Robert Vautard, and Pascal Yiou
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 943–957, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024, 2024
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Winter temperatures in central Europe have increased. But cold winters can still cause problems for energy systems, infrastructure, or human health. Here we tested whether a record-cold winter, such as the one observed in 1963 over central Europe, could still occur despite climate change. The answer is yes: it is possible, but it is very unlikely. Our results rely on climate model simulations and statistical rare event analysis. In conclusion, society must be prepared for such cold winters.
Aleksa Stanković, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Rodrigo Caballero
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 821–837, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024, 2024
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The article studies extreme winds near the surface over the North Atlantic Ocean. These winds are caused by storms that pass through this region. The strongest storms that have occurred in the winters from 1950–2020 are studied in detail and compared to weaker but still strong storms. The analysis shows that the storms associated with the strongest winds are preceded by another older storm that travelled through the same region and made the conditions suitable for development of extreme winds.
Mathieu Vrac, Denis Allard, Grégoire Mariéthoz, Soulivanh Thao, and Lucas Schmutz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 735–762, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-735-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-735-2024, 2024
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We aim to combine multiple global climate models (GCMs) to enhance the robustness of future projections. We introduce a novel approach, called "α pooling", aggregating the cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of the models into a CDF more aligned with historical data. The new CDFs allow us to perform bias adjustment of all the raw climate simulations at once. Experiments with European temperature and precipitation demonstrate the superiority of this approach over conventional techniques.
Derrick Muheki, Axel A. J. Deijns, Emanuele Bevacqua, Gabriele Messori, Jakob Zscheischler, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 429–466, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-429-2024, 2024
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Climate change affects the interaction, dependence, and joint occurrence of climate extremes. Here we investigate the joint occurrence of pairs of river floods, droughts, heatwaves, crop failures, wildfires, and tropical cyclones in East Africa under past and future climate conditions. Our results show that, across all future warming scenarios, the frequency and spatial extent of these co-occurring extremes will increase in this region, particularly in areas close to the Nile and Congo rivers.
Moctar Dembélé, Mathieu Vrac, Natalie Ceperley, Sander J. Zwart, Josh Larsen, Simon J. Dadson, Grégoire Mariéthoz, and Bettina Schaefli
Proc. IAHS, 385, 121–127, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-121-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-121-2024, 2024
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This study assesses the impact of climate change on the timing, seasonality and magnitude of mean annual minimum (MAM) flows and annual maximum flows (AMF) in the Volta River basin (VRB). Several climate change projection data are use to simulate river flow under multiple greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Future projections show that AMF could increase with various magnitude but negligible shift in time across the VRB, while MAM could decrease with up to 14 days of delay in occurrence.
Vera Melinda Galfi, Tommaso Alberti, Lesley De Cruz, Christian L. E. Franzke, and Valerio Lembo
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 31, 185–193, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-185-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-185-2024, 2024
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In the online seminar series "Perspectives on climate sciences: from historical developments to future frontiers" (2020–2021), well-known and established scientists from several fields – including mathematics, physics, climate science and ecology – presented their perspectives on the evolution of climate science and on relevant scientific concepts. In this paper, we first give an overview of the content of the seminar series, and then we introduce the written contributions to this special issue.
Lucas Fery and Davide Faranda
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 439–461, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-439-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-439-2024, 2024
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In this study, we analyse warm-season derechos – a type of severe convective windstorm – in France between 2000 and 2022, identifying 38 events. We compare their frequency and features with other countries. We also examine changes in the associated large-scale patterns. We find that convective instability has increased in southern Europe. However, the attribution of these changes to natural climate variability, human-induced climate change or a combination of both remains unclear.
Leonardo Olivetti and Gabriele Messori
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2347–2358, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2347-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2347-2024, 2024
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In the last decades, weather forecasting up to 15 d into the future has been dominated by physics-based numerical models. Recently, deep learning models have challenged this paradigm. However, the latter models may struggle when forecasting weather extremes. In this article, we argue for deep learning models specifically designed to handle extreme events, and we propose a foundational framework to develop such models.
Susanna Strada, Andrea Pozzer, Graziano Giuliani, Erika Coppola, Fabien Solmon, Xiaoyan Jiang, Alex Guenther, Efstratios Bourtsoukidis, Dominique Serça, Jonathan Williams, and Filippo Giorgi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13301–13327, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13301-2023, 2023
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Water deficit modifies emissions of isoprene, an aromatic compound released by plants that influences the production of an air pollutant such as ozone. Numerical modelling shows that, during the warmest and driest summers, isoprene decreases between −20 and −60 % over the Euro-Mediterranean region, while near-surface ozone only diminishes by a few percent. Decreases in isoprene emissions not only happen under dry conditions, but also could occur after prolonged or repeated water deficits.
Matthew J. McGrath, Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Philippe Peylin, Robbie M. Andrew, Bradley Matthews, Frank Dentener, Juraj Balkovič, Vladislav Bastrikov, Meike Becker, Gregoire Broquet, Philippe Ciais, Audrey Fortems-Cheiney, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Giacomo Grassi, Ian Harris, Matthew Jones, Jürgen Knauer, Matthias Kuhnert, Guillaume Monteil, Saqr Munassar, Paul I. Palmer, Glen P. Peters, Chunjing Qiu, Mart-Jan Schelhaas, Oksana Tarasova, Matteo Vizzarri, Karina Winkler, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Antoine Berchet, Peter Briggs, Patrick Brockmann, Frédéric Chevallier, Giulia Conchedda, Monica Crippa, Stijn N. C. Dellaert, Hugo A. C. Denier van der Gon, Sara Filipek, Pierre Friedlingstein, Richard Fuchs, Michael Gauss, Christoph Gerbig, Diego Guizzardi, Dirk Günther, Richard A. Houghton, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Ronny Lauerwald, Bas Lerink, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Géraud Moulas, Marilena Muntean, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Aurélie Paquirissamy, Lucia Perugini, Wouter Peters, Roberto Pilli, Julia Pongratz, Pierre Regnier, Marko Scholze, Yusuf Serengil, Pete Smith, Efisio Solazzo, Rona L. Thompson, Francesco N. Tubiello, Timo Vesala, and Sophia Walther
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4295–4370, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4295-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4295-2023, 2023
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Accurate estimation of fluxes of carbon dioxide from the land surface is essential for understanding future impacts of greenhouse gas emissions on the climate system. A wide variety of methods currently exist to estimate these sources and sinks. We are continuing work to develop annual comparisons of these diverse methods in order to clarify what they all actually calculate and to resolve apparent disagreement, in addition to highlighting opportunities for increased understanding.
Emma Holmberg, Gabriele Messori, Rodrigo Caballero, and Davide Faranda
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 737–765, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-737-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-737-2023, 2023
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We analyse the duration of large-scale patterns of air movement in the atmosphere, referred to as persistence, and whether unusually persistent patterns favour warm-temperature extremes in Europe. We see no clear relationship between summertime heatwaves and unusually persistent patterns. This suggests that heatwaves do not necessarily require the continued flow of warm air over a region and that local effects could be important for their occurrence.
Cedric Gacial Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, Mathieu Vrac, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1313–1333, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1313-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1313-2023, 2023
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Heat waves (HWs) are climatic hazards that affect the planet. We assess here uncertainties encountered in the process of HW detection and analyse their recent trends in West Africa using reanalysis data. Three types of uncertainty have been investigated. We identified 6 years with higher frequency of HWs, possibly due to higher sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Atlantic. We noticed an increase in HW characteristics during the last decade, which could be a consequence of climate change.
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Chunjing Qiu, Matthew J. McGrath, Philippe Peylin, Glen P. Peters, Philippe Ciais, Rona L. Thompson, Aki Tsuruta, Dominik Brunner, Matthias Kuhnert, Bradley Matthews, Paul I. Palmer, Oksana Tarasova, Pierre Regnier, Ronny Lauerwald, David Bastviken, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Wilfried Winiwarter, Giuseppe Etiope, Tuula Aalto, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Vladislav Bastrikov, Antoine Berchet, Patrick Brockmann, Giancarlo Ciotoli, Giulia Conchedda, Monica Crippa, Frank Dentener, Christine D. Groot Zwaaftink, Diego Guizzardi, Dirk Günther, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Massaer Kouyate, Adrian Leip, Antti Leppänen, Emanuele Lugato, Manon Maisonnier, Alistair J. Manning, Tiina Markkanen, Joe McNorton, Marilena Muntean, Gabriel D. Oreggioni, Prabir K. Patra, Lucia Perugini, Isabelle Pison, Maarit T. Raivonen, Marielle Saunois, Arjo J. Segers, Pete Smith, Efisio Solazzo, Hanqin Tian, Francesco N. Tubiello, Timo Vesala, Guido R. van der Werf, Chris Wilson, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1197–1268, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1197-2023, 2023
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This study updates the state-of-the-art scientific overview of CH4 and N2O emissions in the EU27 and UK in Petrescu et al. (2021a). Yearly updates are needed to improve the different respective approaches and to inform on the development of formal verification systems. It integrates the most recent emission inventories, process-based model and regional/global inversions, comparing them with UNFCCC national GHG inventories, in support to policy to facilitate real-time verification procedures.
Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Rémy Bonnet, Sihan Li, Yoann Robin, Sarah Kew, Sjoukje Philip, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Brigitte Dubuisson, Nicolas Viovy, Markus Reichstein, Friederike Otto, and Iñaki Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1045–1058, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, 2023
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A deep frost occurred in early April 2021, inducing severe damages in grapevine and fruit trees in France. We found that such extreme frosts occurring after the start of the growing season such as those of April 2021 are currently about 2°C colder [0.5 °C to 3.3 °C] in observations than in preindustrial climate. This observed intensification of growing-period frosts is attributable, at least in part, to human-caused climate change, making the 2021 event 50 % more likely [10 %–110 %].
Meriem Krouma, Riccardo Silini, and Pascal Yiou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 273–290, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-273-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-273-2023, 2023
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We present a simple system to forecast the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). We use atmospheric circulation as input to our system. We found a good-skill forecast of the MJO amplitude within 40 d using this methodology. Comparing our results with ECMWF and machine learning forecasts confirmed the good skill of our system.
Axel Kleidon, Gabriele Messori, Somnath Baidya Roy, Ira Didenkulova, and Ning Zeng
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 241–242, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-241-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-241-2023, 2023
Bastien François and Mathieu Vrac
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 21–44, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-21-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-21-2023, 2023
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Compound events (CEs) result from a combination of several climate phenomena. In this study, we propose a new methodology to assess the time of emergence of CE probabilities and to quantify the contribution of marginal and dependence properties of climate phenomena to the overall CE probability changes. By applying our methodology to two case studies, we show the importance of considering changes in both marginal and dependence properties for future risk assessments related to CEs.
Patrick Johannes Stoll, Rune Grand Graversen, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1-2023, 2023
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The atmosphere is in motion and hereby transporting warm, cold, moist, and dry air to different climate zones. In this study, we investigate how this transport of energy organises in different manners. Outside the tropics, atmospheric waves of sizes between 2000 and 8000 km, which we perceive as cyclones from the surface, transport most of the energy and moisture poleward. In the winter, large-scale weather situations become very important for transporting energy into the polar regions.
Sjoukje Y. Philip, Sarah F. Kew, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Faron S. Anslow, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Robert Vautard, Dim Coumou, Kristie L. Ebi, Julie Arrighi, Roop Singh, Maarten van Aalst, Carolina Pereira Marghidan, Michael Wehner, Wenchang Yang, Sihan Li, Dominik L. Schumacher, Mathias Hauser, Rémy Bonnet, Linh N. Luu, Flavio Lehner, Nathan Gillett, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Chris Rodell, Roland B. Stull, Rosie Howard, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1689–1713, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1689-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1689-2022, 2022
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In June 2021, the Pacific Northwest of the US and Canada saw record temperatures far exceeding those previously observed. This attribution study found such a severe heat wave would have been virtually impossible without human-induced climate change. Assuming no nonlinear interactions, such events have become at least 150 times more common, are about 2 °C hotter and will become even more common as warming continues. Therefore, adaptation and mitigation are urgently needed to prepare society.
Davide Faranda, Stella Bourdin, Mireia Ginesta, Meriem Krouma, Robin Noyelle, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1311–1340, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022, 2022
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We analyze the atmospheric circulation leading to impactful extreme events for the calendar year 2021 such as the Storm Filomena, Westphalia floods, Hurricane Ida and Medicane Apollo. For some of the events, we find that climate change has contributed to their occurrence or enhanced their intensity; for other events, we find that they are unprecedented. Our approach underscores the importance of considering changes in the atmospheric circulation when performing attribution studies.
Gabriele Messori, Marlene Kretschmer, Simon H. Lee, and Vivien Wendt
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1215–1236, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1215-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1215-2022, 2022
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Over 10 km above the ground, there is a region of the atmosphere called the stratosphere. While there is very little air in the stratosphere itself, its interactions with the lower parts of the atmosphere – where we live – can affect the weather. Here we study a specific example of such an interaction, whereby processes occurring at the boundary of the stratosphere can lead to a continent-wide drop in temperatures in North America during winter.
Antoine Grisart, Mathieu Casado, Vasileios Gkinis, Bo Vinther, Philippe Naveau, Mathieu Vrac, Thomas Laepple, Bénédicte Minster, Frederic Prié, Barbara Stenni, Elise Fourré, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Jean Jouzel, Martin Werner, Katy Pol, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Maria Hoerhold, Trevor Popp, and Amaelle Landais
Clim. Past, 18, 2289–2301, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2289-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2289-2022, 2022
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This paper presents a compilation of high-resolution (11 cm) water isotopic records, including published and new measurements, for the last 800 000 years from the EPICA Dome C ice core, Antarctica. Using this new combined water isotopes (δ18O and δD) dataset, we study the variability and possible influence of diffusion at the multi-decadal to multi-centennial scale. We observe a stronger variability at the onset of the interglacial interval corresponding to a warm period.
Valerio Lembo, Federico Fabiano, Vera Melinda Galfi, Rune Grand Graversen, Valerio Lucarini, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1037–1062, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1037-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1037-2022, 2022
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Eddies in mid-latitudes characterize the exchange of heat between the tropics and the poles. This exchange is largely uneven, with a few extreme events bearing most of the heat transported across latitudes in a season. It is thus important to understand what the dynamical mechanisms are behind these events. Here, we identify recurrent weather regime patterns associated with extreme transports, and we identify scales of mid-latitudinal eddies that are mostly responsible for the transport.
Flavio Maria Emanuele Pons and Davide Faranda
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 8, 155–186, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-8-155-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-8-155-2022, 2022
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The objective motivating this study is the assessment of the impacts of winter climate extremes, which requires accurate simulation of snowfall. However, climate simulation models contain physical approximations, which result in biases that must be corrected using past data as a reference. We show how to exploit simulated temperature and precipitation to estimate snowfall from already bias-corrected variables, without requiring the elaboration of complex, multivariate bias adjustment techniques.
Kathrin Wehrli, Fei Luo, Mathias Hauser, Hideo Shiogama, Daisuke Tokuda, Hyungjun Kim, Dim Coumou, Wilhelm May, Philippe Le Sager, Frank Selten, Olivia Martius, Robert Vautard, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1167–1196, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1167-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1167-2022, 2022
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The ExtremeX experiment was designed to unravel the contribution of processes leading to the occurrence of recent weather and climate extremes. Global climate simulations are carried out with three models. The results show that in constrained experiments, temperature anomalies during heatwaves are well represented, although climatological model biases remain. Further, a substantial contribution of both atmospheric circulation and soil moisture to heat extremes is identified.
Meriem Krouma, Pascal Yiou, Céline Déandreis, and Soulivanh Thao
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4941–4958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4941-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4941-2022, 2022
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We evaluated the skill of a stochastic weather generator (SWG) to forecast precipitation at different time scales and in different areas of western Europe from analogs of Z500 hPa. The SWG has the skill to simulate precipitation for 5 and 10 d. We found that forecast weaknesses can be associated with specific weather patterns. The comparison with ECMWF forecasts confirms the skill of our model. This work is important because it provides information about weather forecasts over specific areas.
Miriam D'Errico, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, Soulivanh Tao, Cesare Nardini, Frank Lunkeit, and Davide Faranda
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 961–992, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-961-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-961-2022, 2022
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Climate change is already affecting weather extremes. In a warming climate, we will expect the cold spells to decrease in frequency and intensity. Our analysis shows that the frequency of circulation patterns leading to snowy cold-spell events over Italy will not decrease under business-as-usual emission scenarios, although the associated events may not lead to cold conditions in the warmer scenarios.
Romit Maulik, Vishwas Rao, Jiali Wang, Gianmarco Mengaldo, Emil Constantinescu, Bethany Lusch, Prasanna Balaprakash, Ian Foster, and Rao Kotamarthi
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3433–3445, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3433-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3433-2022, 2022
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In numerical weather prediction, data assimilation is frequently utilized to enhance the accuracy of forecasts from equation-based models. In this work we use a machine learning framework that approximates a complex dynamical system given by the geopotential height. Instead of using an equation-based model, we utilize this machine-learned alternative to dramatically accelerate both the forecast and the assimilation of data, thereby reducing need for large computational resources.
Assaf Hochman, Francesco Marra, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Yizhak Yosef, and Georgios Zittis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 749–777, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, 2022
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Gaining a complete understanding of extreme weather, from its physical drivers to its impacts on society, is important in supporting future risk reduction and adaptation measures. Here, we provide a review of the available scientific literature, knowledge gaps and key open questions in the study of extreme weather events over the vulnerable eastern Mediterranean region.
Linh N. Luu, Robert Vautard, Pascal Yiou, and Jean-Michel Soubeyroux
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 687–702, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-687-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-687-2022, 2022
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This study downscales climate information from EURO-CORDEX (approx. 12 km) output to a higher horizontal resolution (approx. 3 km) for the south of France. We also propose a matrix of different indices to evaluate the high-resolution precipitation output. We find that a higher resolution reproduces more realistic extreme precipitation events at both daily and sub-daily timescales. Our results and approach are promising to apply to other Mediterranean regions and climate impact studies.
Moctar Dembélé, Mathieu Vrac, Natalie Ceperley, Sander J. Zwart, Josh Larsen, Simon J. Dadson, Grégoire Mariéthoz, and Bettina Schaefli
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1481–1506, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1481-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1481-2022, 2022
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Climate change impacts on water resources in the Volta River basin are investigated under various global warming scenarios. Results reveal contrasting changes in future hydrological processes and water availability, depending on greenhouse gas emission scenarios, with implications for floods and drought occurrence over the 21st century. These findings provide insights for the elaboration of regional adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change.
Bérengère Dubrulle, François Daviaud, Davide Faranda, Louis Marié, and Brice Saint-Michel
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 29, 17–35, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-17-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-17-2022, 2022
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Present climate models discuss climate change but show no sign of bifurcation in the future. Is this because there is none or because they are in essence too simplified to be able to capture them? To get elements of an answer, we ran a laboratory experiment and discovered that the answer is not so simple.
Erika Coppola, Paolo Stocchi, Emanuela Pichelli, Jose Abraham Torres Alavez, Russell Glazer, Graziano Giuliani, Fabio Di Sante, Rita Nogherotto, and Filippo Giorgi
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7705–7723, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7705-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7705-2021, 2021
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In this work we describe the development of a non-hydrostatic version of the regional climate model RegCM4-NH, implemented to allow simulations at convection-permitting scales of <4 km for climate applications. The new core is described, and three case studies of intense convection are carried out to illustrate the model performances. Comparison with observations is much improved with respect to with coarse grid runs. RegCM4-NH offers a promising tool for climate investigations at a local scale.
Jean-Eudes Petit, Jean-Charles Dupont, Olivier Favez, Valérie Gros, Yunjiang Zhang, Jean Sciare, Leila Simon, François Truong, Nicolas Bonnaire, Tanguy Amodeo, Robert Vautard, and Martial Haeffelin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17167–17183, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17167-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17167-2021, 2021
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The COVID-19 outbreak led to lockdowns at national scales in spring 2020. Large cuts in emissions occurred, but the quantitative assessment of their role from observations is hindered by weather and interannual variability. That is why we developed an innovative methodology in order to best characterize the impact of lockdown on atmospheric chemistry. We find that a local decrease in traffic-related pollutants triggered a decrease of secondary aerosols and an increase in ozone.
Yoann Robin and Mathieu Vrac
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1253–1273, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1253-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1253-2021, 2021
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We propose a new multivariate downscaling and bias correction approach called
time-shifted multivariate bias correction, which aims to correct temporal dependencies in addition to inter-variable and spatial ones. Our method is evaluated in a
perfect model experimentcontext where simulations are used as pseudo-observations. The results show a large reduction of the biases in the temporal properties, while inter-variable and spatial dependence structures are still correctly adjusted.
Pascal Yiou and Nicolas Viovy
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 997–1013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-997-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-997-2021, 2021
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This paper presents a model of tree ruin as a response to drought hazards. This model is inspired by a standard model of ruin in the insurance industry. We illustrate how ruin can occur in present-day conditions and the sensitivity of ruin and time to ruin to hazard statistical properties. We also show how tree strategies to cope with hazards can affect their long-term reserves and the probability of ruin.
Cedric G. Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, Mathieu Vrac, Philippe Peyrillé, and Cyrille Flamant
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 893–912, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-893-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-893-2021, 2021
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This work assesses the forecast of the temperature over the Sahara, a key driver of the West African Monsoon, at a seasonal timescale. The seasonal models are able to reproduce the climatological state and some characteristics of the temperature during the rainy season in the Sahel. But, because of errors in the timing, the forecast skill scores are significant only for the first 4 weeks.
Davide Faranda, Mathieu Vrac, Pascal Yiou, Flavio Maria Emanuele Pons, Adnane Hamid, Giulia Carella, Cedric Ngoungue Langue, Soulivanh Thao, and Valerie Gautard
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 423–443, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-423-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-423-2021, 2021
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Machine learning approaches are spreading rapidly in climate sciences. They are of great help in many practical situations where using the underlying equations is difficult because of the limitation in computational power. Here we use a systematic approach to investigate the limitations of the popular echo state network algorithms used to forecast the long-term behaviour of chaotic systems, such as the weather. Our results show that noise and intermittency greatly affect the performances.
Tommaso Alberti, Reik V. Donner, and Stéphane Vannitsem
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 837–855, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-837-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-837-2021, 2021
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We provide a novel approach to diagnose the strength of the ocean–atmosphere coupling by using both a reduced order model and reanalysis data. Our findings suggest the ocean–atmosphere dynamics presents a rich variety of features, moving from a chaotic to a coherent coupled dynamics, mainly attributed to the atmosphere and only marginally to the ocean. Our observations suggest further investigations in characterizing the occurrence and spatial dependency of the ocean–atmosphere coupling.
Anna Denvil-Sommer, Marion Gehlen, and Mathieu Vrac
Ocean Sci., 17, 1011–1030, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1011-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1011-2021, 2021
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In this work we explored design options for a future Atlantic-scale observational network enabling the release of carbon system estimates by combining data streams from various platforms. We used outputs of a physical–biogeochemical global ocean model at sites of real-world observations to reconstruct surface ocean pCO2 by applying a non-linear feed-forward neural network. The results provide important information for future BGC-Argo deployment, i.e. important regions and the number of floats.
Francesco S. R. Pausata, Gabriele Messori, Jayoung Yun, Chetankumar A. Jalihal, Massimo A. Bollasina, and Thomas M. Marchitto
Clim. Past, 17, 1243–1271, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1243-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1243-2021, 2021
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Far-afield changes in vegetation such as those that occurred over the Sahara during the middle Holocene and the consequent changes in dust emissions can affect the intensity of the South Asian Monsoon (SAM) rainfall and the lengthening of the monsoon season. This remote influence is mediated by anomalies in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures and may have shaped the evolution of the SAM during the termination of the African Humid Period.
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Matthew J. McGrath, Robbie M. Andrew, Philippe Peylin, Glen P. Peters, Philippe Ciais, Gregoire Broquet, Francesco N. Tubiello, Christoph Gerbig, Julia Pongratz, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Giacomo Grassi, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Pierre Regnier, Ronny Lauerwald, Matthias Kuhnert, Juraj Balkovič, Mart-Jan Schelhaas, Hugo A. C. Denier van der
Gon, Efisio Solazzo, Chunjing Qiu, Roberto Pilli, Igor B. Konovalov, Richard A. Houghton, Dirk Günther, Lucia Perugini, Monica Crippa, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Pete Smith, Saqr Munassar, Rona L. Thompson, Giulia Conchedda, Guillaume Monteil, Marko Scholze, Ute Karstens, Patrick Brockmann, and Albertus Johannes Dolman
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2363–2406, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2363-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2363-2021, 2021
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This study is topical and provides a state-of-the-art scientific overview of data availability from bottom-up and top-down CO2 fossil emissions and CO2 land fluxes in the EU27+UK. The data integrate recent emission inventories with ecosystem data, land carbon models and regional/global inversions for the European domain, aiming at reconciling CO2 estimates with official country-level UNFCCC national GHG inventories in support to policy and facilitating real-time verification procedures.
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Chunjing Qiu, Philippe Ciais, Rona L. Thompson, Philippe Peylin, Matthew J. McGrath, Efisio Solazzo, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Peter Bergamaschi, Dominik Brunner, Glen P. Peters, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Pierre Regnier, Ronny Lauerwald, David Bastviken, Aki Tsuruta, Wilfried Winiwarter, Prabir K. Patra, Matthias Kuhnert, Gabriel D. Oreggioni, Monica Crippa, Marielle Saunois, Lucia Perugini, Tiina Markkanen, Tuula Aalto, Christine D. Groot Zwaaftink, Hanqin Tian, Yuanzhi Yao, Chris Wilson, Giulia Conchedda, Dirk Günther, Adrian Leip, Pete Smith, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Antti Leppänen, Alistair J. Manning, Joe McNorton, Patrick Brockmann, and Albertus Johannes Dolman
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2307–2362, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2307-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2307-2021, 2021
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This study is topical and provides a state-of-the-art scientific overview of data availability from bottom-up and top-down CH4 and N2O emissions in the EU27 and UK. The data integrate recent emission inventories with process-based model data and regional/global inversions for the European domain, aiming at reconciling them with official country-level UNFCCC national GHG inventories in support to policy and to facilitate real-time verification procedures.
Cited articles
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Fery, L., Dubrulle, B., Podvin, B., Pons, F., and Faranda, D.: Learning a Weather Dictionary of Atmospheric Patterns Using Latent Dirichlet Allocation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e96184, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL096184, 2022. a
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Short summary
We introduce ClimaMeter, a tool offering real-time insights into extreme-weather events. Our tool unveils how climate change and natural variability affect these events, affecting communities worldwide. Our research equips policymakers and the public with essential knowledge, fostering informed decisions and enhancing climate resilience. We analysed two distinct events, showcasing ClimaMeter's global relevance.
We introduce ClimaMeter, a tool offering real-time insights into extreme-weather events. Our...
