Articles | Volume 6, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-741-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-741-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
11 Jul 2025
Research article |
| 11 Jul 2025
| 11 Jul 2025
Diverse causes of extreme rainfall in November 2023 over Equatorial Africa
Laboratory for Environmental Modelling and Atmospheric Physics (LEMAP), Physics Department, University of Yaounde 1, P.O. Box 812, Yaounde, Cameroon
Masilin Gudoshava
IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), Nairobi, Kenya
Roméo S. Tanessong
Department of Meteorology and Climatology, Higher Institute of Agriculture, Forestry, Water and Environment, University of Ebolowa, P.O. Box 118, Ebolowa, Cameroon
Laboratory for Environmental Modelling and Atmospheric Physics (LEMAP), Physics Department, University of Yaounde 1, P.O. Box 812, Yaounde, Cameroon
Alain T. Tamoffo
Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Fischertwiete 1, 20095 Hamburg, Germany
Derbetini A. Vondou
Laboratory for Environmental Modelling and Atmospheric Physics (LEMAP), Physics Department, University of Yaounde 1, P.O. Box 812, Yaounde, Cameroon
Related authors
No articles found.
Kevin Kenfack, Francesco Marra, Zéphirin Yepdo Djomou, Lucie Angennes Djiotang Tchotchou, Alain Tchio Tamoffo, and Derbetini Appolinaire Vondou
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1457–1472, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1457-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The results of this study show that moisture advection induced by horizontal wind anomalies and vertical moisture advection induced by vertical velocity anomalies were crucial mechanisms behind the anomalous October 2019 exceptional rainfall increase over western central Africa. The information we derive can be used to support risk assessment and management in the region and to improve our resilience to ongoing climate change.
Wilfran Moufouma-Okia, Debertini A. Vondou, and Richard JONES
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2020-38, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2020-38, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
This work examines the fidelity to reproduce regional and global monsoons climatological features using the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) third and fourth generations Global Atmosphere (GA3.0) and (GA4.0), two configurations of the HadGEM3 system developed for use across climate and weather time scales. GA3.0 largely captures global monsoon features, including the monsoon precipitation patterns. GA4.0 and GA3.0 results display a close similarity, and compares reasonably well against CMIP5.
S. C. Kenfack, K. F. Mkankam, G. Alory, Y. du Penhoat, N. M. Hounkonnou, D. A. Vondou, and G. N. Bawe
Nonlin. Processes Geophys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/npgd-1-235-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/npgd-1-235-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
Related subject area
Links between the atmospheric water cycle and weather systems
Extreme Mediterranean cyclones and associated variables in an atmosphere-only vs. an ocean-coupled regional model
A climatological characterization of North Atlantic winter jet streaks and their extremes
Revisiting the moisture budget of the Mediterranean region in the ERA5 reanalysis
Dynamic and thermodynamic contribution to the October 2019 exceptional rainfall in western central Africa
Dynamics, predictability, impacts, and climate change considerations of the catastrophic Mediterranean Storm Daniel (2023)
Influence of mid-latitude sea surface temperature fronts on the atmospheric water cycle and storm track activity
Impact of precipitation mass sinks on midlatitude storms in idealized simulations across a wide range of climates
The monthly evolution of precipitation and warm conveyor belts during the central southwest Asia wet season
Exploring hail and lightning diagnostics over the Alpine-Adriatic region in a km-scale climate model
Model-simulated hydroclimate in the East Asian summer monsoon region during past and future climate: a pilot study with a moisture source perspective
Lagrangian formation pathways of moist anomalies in the trade-wind region during the dry season: two case studies from EUREC4A
A numerical study to investigate the roles of former Hurricane Leslie, orography and evaporative cooling in the 2018 Aude heavy-precipitation event
High-resolution stable isotope signature of a land-falling atmospheric river in southern Norway
Atmospheric convergence zones stemming from large-scale mixing
The role of air–sea fluxes for the water vapour isotope signals in the cold and warm sectors of extratropical cyclones over the Southern Ocean
Extreme wet seasons – their definition and relationship with synoptic-scale weather systems
Attribution of precipitation to cyclones and fronts over Europe in a kilometer-scale regional climate simulation
An attempt to explain recent changes in European snowfall extremes
Marco Chericoni, Giorgia Fosser, Emmanouil Flaounas, Gianmaria Sannino, and Alessandro Anav
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 627–643, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-627-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-627-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores how sea surface energy influences both the atmosphere and ocean at various vertical levels during extreme Mediterranean cyclones. It focuses on cyclones' precipitation and wind speed response, as well as on ocean temperature variation. The findings highlight the regional coupled model's ability to coherently represent the thermodynamic and dynamic processes of the cyclones across both the atmosphere and the ocean.
Mona Bukenberger, Lena Fasnacht, Stefan Rüdisühli, and Sebastian Schemm
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 279–316, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-279-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-279-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The jet stream is a band of strong westerly winds, within which jet streaks are regions of faster wind speeds that can aid storm development. This study analyses jet streaks over the North Atlantic during winter. Jet streaks are linked to pairs of surface anticyclones and cyclones and are often accompanied by intense precipitation, especially extreme jet streaks. With cloud processes playing an increased role in extreme jet streaks, follow-up studies concerning their role are warranted.
Roshanak Tootoonchi, Simona Bordoni, and Roberta D'Agostino
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 245–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-245-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-245-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we explore the role of stationary circulations arising from deviations from the zonal mean in the distinct transition from net evaporation over the ocean to net precipitation over land in the Mediterranean region from ERA5. Stationary eddies reinforce the wetting tendency over land and oppose the drying tendency over the ocean due to transient storms. Our results have important implications for future changes in the region, previously identified as a climate change hot spot.
Kevin Kenfack, Francesco Marra, Zéphirin Yepdo Djomou, Lucie Angennes Djiotang Tchotchou, Alain Tchio Tamoffo, and Derbetini Appolinaire Vondou
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1457–1472, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1457-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The results of this study show that moisture advection induced by horizontal wind anomalies and vertical moisture advection induced by vertical velocity anomalies were crucial mechanisms behind the anomalous October 2019 exceptional rainfall increase over western central Africa. The information we derive can be used to support risk assessment and management in the region and to improve our resilience to ongoing climate change.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Stavros Dafis, Silvio Davolio, Davide Faranda, Christian Ferrarin, Katharina Hartmuth, Assaf Hochman, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Samira Khodayar, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Florian Pantillon, Platon Patlakas, Michael Sprenger, and Iris Thurnherr
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2809, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2809, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Storm Daniel (2023) is one of the most catastrophic ones ever documented in the Mediterranean. Our results highlight the different dynamics and therefore the different predictability skill of precipitation, its extremes and impacts that have been produced in Greece and Libya, the two most affected countries. Our approach concerns a holistic analysis of the storm by articulating dynamics, weather prediction, hydrological and oceanographic implications, climate extremes and attribution theory.
Fumiaki Ogawa and Thomas Spengler
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1031–1042, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1031-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1031-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The exchange of energy and moisture between the atmosphere and ocean is maximised along strong meridional contrasts in sea surface temperature, such as across the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio. We find that these strong meridional contrasts confine and determine the position of evaporation and precipitation, as well as storm occurrence and intensity. The general intensity of the water cycle and storm activity, however, is determined by the underlying absolute sea surface temperature.
Tristan H. Abbott and Paul A. O'Gorman
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 17–41, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-17-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-17-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric models often neglect the mass sink from precipitation fallout, but a small number of modeling studies suggest that this mass sink may intensify storms. We provide evidence, using simulations and theory, that precipitation mass sinks have little systematic effect on storm intensity unless exaggerated by an order of magnitude. This result holds even in very warm climates with very heavy rainfall and helps to justify the neglect of precipitation mass sinks in atmospheric models.
Melissa Leah Breeden, Andrew Hoell, John Robert Albers, and Kimberly Slinski
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 963–980, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-963-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-963-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We compare the month-to-month evolution of daily precipitation over central southwest Asia (CSWA), a data-sparse, food-insecure area prone to drought and flooding. The seasonality of CSWA precipitation aligns with the seasonality of warm conveyor belts (WCBs), the warm, rapidly ascending airstreams associated with extratropical storms, most common from February–April. El Niño conditions are related to more WCBs and precipitation and La Niña conditions the opposite, except in January.
Ruoyi Cui, Nikolina Ban, Marie-Estelle Demory, Raffael Aellig, Oliver Fuhrer, Jonas Jucker, Xavier Lapillonne, and Christoph Schär
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 905–926, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-905-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-905-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Our study focuses on severe convective storms that occur over the Alpine-Adriatic region. By running simulations for eight real cases and evaluating them against available observations, we found our models did a good job of simulating total precipitation, hail, and lightning. Overall, this research identified important meteorological factors for hail and lightning, and the results indicate that both HAILCAST and LPI diagnostics are promising candidates for future climate research.
Astrid Fremme, Paul J. Hezel, Øyvind Seland, and Harald Sodemann
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 449–470, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-449-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-449-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We study the atmospheric moisture transport into eastern China for past, present, and future climate. Hence, we use different climate and weather prediction model data with a moisture source identification method. We find that while the moisture to first order originates mostly from similar regions, smaller changes consistently point to differences in the recycling of precipitation over land between different climates. Some differences are larger between models than between different climates.
Leonie Villiger, Heini Wernli, Maxi Boettcher, Martin Hagen, and Franziska Aemisegger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 59–88, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-59-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-59-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The coupling between the large-scale atmospheric circulation and the clouds in the trade-wind region is complex and not yet fully understood. In this study, the formation pathway of two anomalous cloud layers over Barbados during the field campaign EUREC4A is described. The two case studies highlight the influence of remote weather systems on the local environmental conditions in Barbados.
Marc Mandement and Olivier Caumont
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 795–818, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-795-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-795-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
On 14–15 October 2018, in the Aude department (France), a heavy-precipitation event produced up to about 300 mm of rain in 11 h. Simulations carried out show that the former Hurricane Leslie, while involved, was not the first supplier of moisture over the entire event. The location of the highest rainfall was primarily driven by the location of a quasi-stationary front and secondarily by the location of precipitation bands downwind of mountains bordering the Mediterranean Sea.
Yongbiao Weng, Aina Johannessen, and Harald Sodemann
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 713–737, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-713-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-713-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
High-resolution measurements of stable isotopes in near-surface vapour and precipitation show a
W-shaped evolution during a 24 h land-falling atmospheric river event in southern Norway. We distinguish contributions from below-cloud processes, weather system characteristics, and moisture source conditions during different stages of the event. Rayleigh distillation models need to be expanded by additional processes to accurately predict isotopes in surface precipitation from stratiform clouds.
Gabriel M. P. Perez, Pier Luigi Vidale, Nicholas P. Klingaman, and Thomas C. M. Martin
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 475–488, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-475-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-475-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Much of the rainfall in tropical regions comes from organised cloud bands called convergence zones (CZs). These bands have hundreds of kilometers. In South America (SA), they cause intense rain for long periods of time. To study these systems, we need to define and identify them with computer code. We propose a definition of CZs based on the the pathways of air, selecting regions where air masses originated in separated regions meet. This method identifies important mechanisms of rain in SA.
Iris Thurnherr, Katharina Hartmuth, Lukas Jansing, Josué Gehring, Maxi Boettcher, Irina Gorodetskaya, Martin Werner, Heini Wernli, and Franziska Aemisegger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 331–357, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-331-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-331-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Extratropical cyclones are important for the transport of moisture from low to high latitudes. In this study, we investigate how the isotopic composition of water vapour is affected by horizontal temperature advection associated with extratropical cyclones using measurements and modelling. It is shown that air–sea moisture fluxes induced by this horizontal temperature advection lead to the strong variability observed in the isotopic composition of water vapour in the marine boundary layer.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Matthias Röthlisberger, Maxi Boettcher, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 71–88, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-71-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-71-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we identify the wettest seasons globally and address their meteorological characteristics. We show that in different regions the wettest seasons occur in different times of the year and result from either unusually high frequencies of wet days and/or daily extremes. These high frequencies can be largely attributed to four specific weather systems, especially cyclones. Our analysis uses a thoroughly explained, novel methodology that could also be applied to climate models.
Stefan Rüdisühli, Michael Sprenger, David Leutwyler, Christoph Schär, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 675–699, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-675-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-675-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Most precipitation over Europe is linked to low-pressure systems, cold fronts, warm fronts, or high-pressure systems. Based on a massive computer simulation able to resolve thunderstorms, we quantify in detail how much precipitation these weather systems produced during 2000–2008. We find distinct seasonal and regional differences, such as fronts precipitating a lot in fall and winter over the North Atlantic but high-pressure systems mostly in summer over the continent by way of thunderstorms.
Davide Faranda
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 445–458, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-445-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-445-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the global temperature rise caused by anthropogenic emissions, we still observe heavy snowfalls that cause casualties, transport disruptions and energy supply problems. The goal of this paper is to investigate recent trends in snowfalls from reanalysis and observational datasets. The analysis shows an evident discrepancy between trends in average and extreme snowfalls. The latter can only be explained by looking at atmospheric circulation.
Cited articles
Berhane, F. and Zaitchik, B.: Modulation of daily precipitation over East Africa by the Madden–Julian oscillation, J. Climate, 27, 6016–6034, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00693.1, 2014.
Berhane, F. G.: Intraseasonal Precipitation Variability Over Tropical Africa, Ph. D., Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA, 2016.
Black, E.: The relationship between Indian Ocean sea–surface temperature and East African rainfall, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 363, 43–47, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2004.1474, 2005.
Chadwick, R., Good, P., and Willett, K.: A simple moisture advection model of specific humidity change over land in response to SST warming, J. Climate, 29, 7613–7632, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0241.1, 2016.
Chobo, J. S. and Huo, L.: The relationship between extreme precipitation events in East Africa during the short rainy season and Indian Ocean Sea surface temperature, J. Geosc. Env. Prot., 12, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.4236/gep.2024.129001, 2024.
Dezfuli, A. K. and Nicholson, S. E.: The relationship of rainfall variability in Western Equatorial Africa to the tropical oceans and atmospheric circulation. Part II: The Boreal Autumn, J. Climate, 26, 66–84, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00686.1, 2013.
Fotso-Nguemo, T. C., Diallo, I., Diakhaté, M., Vondou, D. A., Mbaye, M. L., Haensler, A., Gaye, A. T., and Tchawoua, C.: Projected changes in the seasonal cycle of extreme rainfall events from CORDEX simulations over Central Africa, Climatic Change, 155, 339–357, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02492-9, 2019.
Funk, C., Dettinger, M. D., Michaelsen, J. C., Verdin, J. P., Brown, M. E., Barlow, M., and Hoell, A.: Warming of the Indian Ocean threatens eastern and southern African food security but could be mitigated by agricultural development, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 105, 11081–11086, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0708196105, 2008.
Funk, C., Peterson, P., Landsfeld, M., Pedreros, D., Verdin, J., Shukla, S., Husak, G., Rowland, J., Harrison, L., Hoell, A., and Michaelsen, J.: The climate hazards infrared precipitation with stations – a new environmental record for monitoring extremes, Sci. Data, 2, 150066, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2015.66, 2015.
Gudoshava, M., Misiani, H. O., Segele, Z. T., Jain, S., Ouma, J. O., Otieno, G., Anyah, R., Indasi, V. S., Endris, H. S., Osima, S., Lennard, C., Zaroug, M., Mwangi, E., Nimusiima, A., Kondowe, A., Ogwang, B., Artan, G., and Atheru, Z.: Projected effects of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels on the intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics over the Greater Horn of Africa, Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 034037, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab6b33, 2020.
Gudoshava, M., Nyinguro, P., Talib, J., Wainwright, C., Mwanthi, A., Hirons, L., de Andrade, F., Mutemi, J., Gitau, W., Thompson, E., Gacheru, J., Marsham, J., Endris, H. S., Woolnough, S., Segele, Z., Atheru, Z., and Artan, G.: Drivers of sub-seasonal extreme rainfall and their representation in ECMWF forecasts during the Eastern African March-to-May seasons of 2018–2020, Meterol. Appl., 31, e70000, https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70000, 2024.
Hastenrath, S., Polzin, D., and Mutai, C.: Diagnosing the droughts and floods in Equatorial East Africa during boreal autumn 2005–08, J. Climate, 23, 813–817, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009jcli3094.1, 2010.
Hastenrath, S., Polzin, D., and Mutai, C.: Circulation mechanisms of Kenya rainfall anomalies, J. Climate, 24, 404–412, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010jcli3599.1, 2011.
Herrnegger, M., Kray, P., Stecher, G., Cherono Kiplangat, N., Otieno, D., Olang, L., and Nicholson, S. E.: Paleohydrology repeating? Regional hydrological change may lead to an overflow and cross-mixing of an alkaline and a freshwater lake in East Africa, J. Hydrol., 55, 101951, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101951, 2024.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Biavati, G., Horányi, A., Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Dee, D., and Thépaut, J.-N.: ERA5 monthly averaged data on pressure levels from 1940 to present, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.6860a573, 2023.
Huang, B., Thorne, P. W., Banzon, V. F., Boyer, T., Chepurin, G., Lawrimore, J. H., and Zhang, H.-M.: Extended reconstructed sea surface temperature, version 5: Upgrades, validations, and intercomparisons, J. Climate, 30, 8179–8205, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0836.1, 2017 (data available at: https://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.NOAA/.NCDC/.ERSST/.version5/.sst/, last access: 8 July 2025).
Ibebuchi, C. C.: Revisiting the 1992 severe drought episode in South Africa: The role of El Niño in the anomalies of atmospheric circulation types in Africa south of the equator, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 146, 723–740, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03741-7, 2021.
Indeje, M., Semazzi, F. H. M., and Ogallo, L. J.: ENSO signals in East African rainfall seasons, Int. J. Climatol., 20, 19–46, https://doi.org/10.1002/(sici)1097-0088(200001)20:1<19::aid-joc449>3.0.co;2-0, 2000.
Ingeri, C., Wen, W., Sebaziga, J. N., Iyakaremye, V., Ekwacu, S., Ayabagabo, P., Twahirwa, A., and Kazora, J.: Potential driving systems associated with extreme rainfall across East Africa during october to december (OND) season 2019, J. Geosc. Env. Prot., 12, 25–49, https://doi.org/10.4236/gep.2024.127003, 2024.
Kenfack, K., Marra, F., Djomou, Z. Y., Tchotchou, L. A. D., Tamoffo, A. T., and Vondou, D. A.: Dynamic and thermodynamic contribution to the October 2019 exceptional rainfall in western central Africa, Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1457–1472, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1457-2024, 2024.
Kilavi, M., MacLeod, D., Ambani, M., Robbins, J., Dankers, R., Graham, R., Titley, H., Salih, A., and Todd, M.: Extreme rainfall and flooding over central kenya including nairobi city during the long-rains season 2018: Causes, predictability, and potential for early warning and actions, Atmosphere, 9, 472, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9120472, 2018.
Kimani, M., Hoedjes, J. C. B., and Su, Z.: An assessment of MJO circulation influence on air–sea interactions for improved seasonal rainfall predictions over East Africa, J. Climate, 33, 8367–8379, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-0296.1, 2020.
Kuete, G., Pokam Mba, W., and Washington, R.: African Easterly Jet South: Control, maintenance mechanisms and link with Southern subtropical waves, Clim. Dynam., 54, 1539–1552, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-05072-w, 2019.
Kuete, G., Mba, W. P., James, R., Dyer, E., Annor, T., and Washington, R.: How do coupled models represent the African Easterly Jets and their associated dynamics over Central Africa during the September–November rainy season? Clim. Dynam., 60, 2907–2929, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06467-y, 2022.
Li, C., Chai, Y., Yang, L., and Li, H.: Spatio-temporal distribution of flood disasters and analysis of influencing factors in Africa, Nat. Hazards, 82, 721–731, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2181-8, 2016.
Longandjo, G.-N. T. and Rouault, M.: On the structure of the regional-scale circulation over Central Africa: Seasonal evolution, variability, and mechanisms, J. Climate, 33, 145–162, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-0176.1, 2020.
Longandjo, G.-N. T. and Rouault, M.: Revisiting the seasonal cycle of rainfall over Central Africa, J. Climate, 37, 1015–1032, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-23-0281.1, 2024.
Lüdecke, H.-J., Müller-Plath, G., Wallace, M. G., and Lüning, S.: Decadal and multidecadal natural variability of African rainfall, J. Hydrol., 34, 100795, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100795, 2021.
Lutz, K., Jacobeit, J., and Rathmann, J.: Atlantic warm and cold water events and impact on African west coast precipitation, Int. J. Climatol., 35, 128–141, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3969, 2014.
Madden, R. A. and Julian, P. R.: Detection of a 40–50 d oscillation in the zonal wind in the Tropical Pacific, J. Atmos. Sci., 28, 702–708, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1971)028<0702:doadoi>2.0.co;2, 1971.
Madden, R. A. and Julian, P. R.: Description of global-scale circulation cells in the Tropics with a 40–50 d period, J. Atmos. Sci., 29, 1109–1123, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1972)029<1109:dogscc>2.0.co;2, 1972.
McHugh, M. J. and Rogers, J. C.: North atlantic oscillation influence on precipitation variability around the southeast african convergence zone, J. Climate, 14, 3631–3642, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<3631:naoiop>2.0.co;2, 2001.
Moihamette, F., Pokam, W. M., Diallo, I., and Washington, R.: Extreme Indian Ocean dipole and rainfall variability over Central Africa, Int. J. Climatol., 42, 5255–5272, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7531, 2022.
Moihamette, F., Pokam, W. M., Diallo, I., and Washington, R.: Response of regional circulation features to the Indian Ocean dipole and influence on Central Africa climate, Clim. Dynam., 62, 1–21, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07251-w, 2024.
Nana, H. N., Tanessong, R. S., Tchotchou, L. A. D., Tamoffo, A. T., Moihamette, F., and Vondou, D. A.: Influence of strong South Atlantic Ocean Dipole on the Central African rainfall's system, Clim. Dynam., 62, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06892-7, 2023.
Nana, H. N., Tamoffo, A. T., Kaissassou, S., Djiotang Tchotchou, L. A., Tanessong, R. S., Kamsu-Tamo, P. H., Kenfack, K., and Vondou, D. A.: Performance-based evaluation of NMME and C3S models in forecasting the June–August Central African rainfall under the influence of the South Atlantic Ocean Dipole, Int. J. Climatol., 44, 2462–2483, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8463, 2024.
Ngavom, Z., Fotso-Nguemo, T. C., Vondou, D. A., Fotso-Kamga, G., Zebaze, S., Yepdo, Z. D., and Diedhiou, A.: Projected changes in population exposure to extreme precipitation events over Central Africa under the global warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2 °C: Insights from CMIP6 simulations, Model. Earth Syst. Environ., 10, 5753–5769, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-024-02091-3, 2024.
Nicholson, S. E.: Long-term variability of the East African “short rains” and its links to large-scale factors, Int. J. Climatol., 35, 3979–3990, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4259, 2015.
Nicholson, S. E. and Grist, J. P.: The seasonal evolution of the atmospheric circulation over West Africa and Equatorial Africa, J. Climate, 16, 1013–1030, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<1013:tseota>2.0.co;2, 2003.
Nicholson, S. E., Fink, A. H., Funk, C., Klotter, D. A., and Satheesh, A. R.: Meteorological causes of the catastrophic rains of October/November 2019 in equatorial Africa, Global. Planet. Change, 208, 103687, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2021.103687, 2022.
NOAA/NCEI: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Monthly Synoptic Discussion for November 2023, published online December 2023, retrieved on 9 July 2025, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/synoptic/202311 (last access: 26 November 2024), 2025.
Onyutha, C.: Geospatial trends and decadal anomalies in extreme rainfall over uganda, east africa, Adv. Meteorol., 2016, 15–15, https://doi.org/10.1155/2016/6935912, 2016.
Palmer, P. I., Wainwright, C. M., Dong, B., Maidment, R. I., Wheeler, K. G., Gedney, N., Hickman, J. E., Madani, N., Folwell, S. S., Abdo, G., Allan, R. P., Black, E. C. L., Feng, L., Gudoshava, M., Haines, K., Huntingford, C., Kilavi, M., Lunt, M. F., Shaaban, A., and Turner, A. G.: Drivers and impacts of Eastern African rainfall variability, Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 4, 254–270, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-023-00397-x, 2023.
Pohl, B. and Camberlin, P.: Influence of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on East African rainfall. I: Intraseasonal variability and regional dependency, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 132, 2521–2539, https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.05.104, 2006.
Pohl, B. and Matthews, A. J.: Observed changes in the lifetime and amplitude of the Madden–Julian oscillation associated with interannual ENSO sea surface temperature anomalies, J. Climate, 20, 2659–2674, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli4230.1, 2007.
Pokam, W. M., Djiotang, L. A. T., and Mkankam, F. K.: Atmospheric water vapor transport and recycling in Equatorial Central Africa through NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, Clim. Dynam., 38, 1715–1729, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1242-7, 2011.
Pokam, W. M., Bain, C. L., Chadwick, R. S., Graham, R., Sonwa, D. J., and Kamga, F. M.: Identification of processes driving low-level westerlies in west equatorial africa, J. Climate, 27, 4245–4262, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00490.1, 2014.
Roy, I. and Troccoli, A.: Identifying important drivers of East African October to December rainfall season, Sci. Total Environ., 914, 169615, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169615, 2024.
Sandjon, A. T., Nzeukou, A., and Tchawoua, C.: Intraseasonal atmospheric variability and its interannual modulation in Central Africa, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 117, 167–179, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-012-0196-6, 2012.
Seager, R., Naik, N., and Vecchi, G. A.: Thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms for large-scale changes in the hydrological cycle in response to global warming*, J. Climate, 23, 4651–4668, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010jcli3655.1, 2010.
Shisanya, Chris, A.: The 1983–1984 drought in Kenya, J. East. Afr. Res. Dev., 20, 127–148, http://www.jstor.org/stable/24326214 (last access: 8 July 2025), 1990.
Stachnik, J. P. and Schumacher, C.: A comparison of the Hadley circulation in modern reanalyses, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 116, D22102, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011jd016677, 2011.
Taguela, T. N., Pokam, W. M., Dyer, E., James, R., and Washington, R.: Low-level circulation over Central Equatorial Africa as simulated from CMIP5 to CMIP6 models, Clim. Dynam., 62, 8333–8351, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06411-0, 2022.
Tamoffo, A. T., Amekudzi, L. K., Weber, T., Vondou, D. A., Yamba, E. I., and Jacob, D.: Mechanisms of rainfall biases in two CORDEX-CORE regional climate models at rainfall peaks over central equatorial africa, J. Climate, 35, 639–668, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-21-0487.1, 2022.
Tamoffo, A. T., Weber, T., Abel, D., Ziegler, K., Cabos, W., Sein, D. V., and Laux, P.: Regionally coupled climate model ROM projects more plausible precipitation change over Central Equatorial Africa, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 129, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024jd041466, 2024.
Tanessong, R. S., Vondou, D. A., Djomou, Z. Y., and Igri, P. M.: WRF high resolution simulation of an extreme rainfall event over Douala (Cameroon): A case study, Model. Earth Syst. Environ., 3, 927–942, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-017-0343-7, 2017.
UCSB: Index of /products/CHIRPS-2.0/global_daily/netcdf/p05/by_month/, UCSB [data set], https://data.chc.ucsb.edu/products/CHIRPS-2.0/global_daily/netcdf/p05/by_month/ (last access: 5 May 2025), 2025.
Wahiduzzaman, M. and Luo, J.-J.: A statistical analysis on the contribution of El Niño–Southern Oscillation to the rainfall and temperature over Bangladesh, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 133, 55–68, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-020-00733-6, 2020.
Wainwright, C. M., Finney, D. L., Kilavi, M., Black, E., and Marsham, J. H.: Extreme rainfall in East Africa, October 2019–January 2020 and context under future climate change, Weather, 76, 26–31, https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.3824, 2020.
Zaitchik, B. F.: Madden–Julian Oscillation impacts on tropical African precipitation, Atmos. Res., 184, 88–102, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.10.002, 2017.
Zhang, W., Wang, Y., Jin, F., Stuecker, M. F., and Turner, A. G.: Impact of different El Niño types on the El Niño/IOD relationship, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 8570–8576, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015gl065703, 2015.
Zheng, X. and Eltahir, E. A. B.: A Soil Moisture–Rainfall Feedback Mechanism: 2. Numerical experiments, Water Resour. Res., 34, 777–785, https://doi.org/10.1029/97wr03497, 1998.
Short summary
The results of this study show that extreme rainfall in November 2023 over Equatorial Africa was controlled by several factors, including strong sea-surface-temperature anomalies in the Niño-3.4, North Tropical Atlantic, Equatorial Atlantic and Indian Ocean Dipole regions; changes in zonal winds; the Walker circulation; the moisture flux and its divergence; and the easterly jets. The information we derive can be used to support risk assessment in the region and to improve our resilience to ongoing climate change.
The results of this study show that extreme rainfall in November 2023 over Equatorial Africa was...
