Articles | Volume 3, issue 2
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 679–692, 2022
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 679–692, 2022
Research article
23 Jun 2022
Research article | 23 Jun 2022

Stationary wave biases and their effect on upward troposphere– stratosphere coupling in sub-seasonal prediction models

Chen Schwartz et al.

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Quantifying stratospheric biases and identifying their potential sources in subseasonal forecast systems
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Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss.,,, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for WCD
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Cited articles

Baldwin, M. P., Ayarzagüena, B., Birner, T., Butchart, N., Butler, A. H., Charlton-Perez, A. J., Domeisen, D. I., Garfinkel, C. I., Garny, H., Gerber, E. P., Heggelin, M. I., Langematz, U., and Pedatella, N. M.: Sudden stratospheric warmings, Rev. Geophys., 59, e2020RG000708,, 2021. a
Charney, J. G. and Drazin, P. G.: Propagation of planetary-scale disturbances from the lower into the upper atmosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 66, 83–109,, 1961. a
Cohen, J. and Jones, J.: Tropospheric Precursors and Stratospheric Warmings, J. Climate, 24, 6562–6572,, 2011. a
Short summary
Eleven operational forecast models that run on subseasonal timescales (up to 2 months) are examined to assess errors in their simulated large-scale stationary waves in the Northern Hemisphere winter. We found that models with a more finely resolved stratosphere generally do better in simulating the waves in both the stratosphere (10–50 km) and troposphere below. Moreover, a connection exists between errors in simulated time-mean convection in tropical regions and errors in the simulated waves.