Articles | Volume 3, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1077-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1077-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
16 Sep 2022
Research article |
| 16 Sep 2022
| 16 Sep 2022
Modulation of the El Niño teleconnection to the North Atlantic by the tropical North Atlantic during boreal spring and summer
Jake W. Casselman
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Bernat Jiménez-Esteve
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
Related authors
Jake W. Casselman, Joke F. Lübbecke, Tobias Bayr, Wenjuan Huo, Sebastian Wahl, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 471–487, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-471-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-471-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has remote effects on the tropical North Atlantic (TNA), but the connections' nonlinearity (strength of response to an increasing ENSO signal) is not always well represented in models. Using the Community Earth System Model version 1 – Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Mode (CESM-WACCM) and the Flexible Ocean and Climate Infrastructure version 1, we find that the TNA responds linearly to extreme El Niño but nonlinearly to extreme La Niña for CESM-WACCM.
Romain Pilon and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2247–2264, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2247-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2247-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces a new method for detecting atmospheric cloud bands to identify long convective cloud bands that extend from the tropics to the midlatitudes. The algorithm allows for easy use and enables researchers to study the life cycle and climatology of cloud bands and associated rainfall. This method provides insights into the large-scale processes involved in cloud band formation and their connections between different regions, as well as differences across ocean basins.
Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Dominik Büeler, C. Ole Wulff, Michael Sprenger, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 231–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-231-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-231-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The stratosphere is a layer of Earth's atmosphere found above the weather systems. Changes in the stratosphere can affect the winds and the storm tracks in the North Atlantic region for a relatively long time, lasting for several weeks and even months. We show that the stratosphere can be important for weather forecasts beyond 1 week, but more work is needed to improve the accuracy of these forecasts for 3–4 weeks.
Maria Pyrina, Wolfgang Wicker, Andries Jan de Vries, Georgios Fragkoulidis, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3088, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3088, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the atmospheric dynamics behind heatwaves, specifically of those occurring simultaneously across regions, known as concurrent heatwaves. We find that heatwaves are strongly modulated by Rossby wave packets, being Rossby waves whose amplitude has a local maximum and decays at larger distances. High amplitude Rossby wave packets increase the occurrence probabilities of concurrent and non-concurrent heatwaves by a factor of 15 and 18, respectively, over several regions globally.
David Martin Straus, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Sarah-Jane Lock, Franco Molteni, and Priyanka Yadav
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 1001–1018, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1001-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1001-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The global response to the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is potentially predictable. Yet the diabatic heating is uncertain even within a particular episode of the MJO. Experiments with a global model probe the limitations imposed by this uncertainty. The large-scale tropical heating is predictable for 25 to 45 d, yet the associated Rossby wave source that links the heating to the midlatitude circulation is predictable for 15 to 20 d. This limitation has not been recognized in prior work.
Gabriel Chiodo, Marina Friedel, Svenja Seeber, Daniela Domeisen, Andrea Stenke, Timofei Sukhodolov, and Franziska Zilker
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10451–10472, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10451-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10451-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric ozone protects the biosphere from harmful UV radiation. Anthropogenic activity has led to a reduction in the ozone layer in the recent past, but thanks to the implementation of the Montreal Protocol, the ozone layer is projected to recover. In this study, we show that projected future changes in Arctic ozone abundances during springtime will influence stratospheric climate and thereby actively modulate large-scale circulation changes in the Northern Hemisphere.
Michael K. Schutte, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and Jacopo Riboldi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1877, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1877, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The winter circulation in the stratosphere, a layer of the Earth’s atmosphere between 10 and 50 km height, is tightly linked to the circulation in the lower atmosphere determining our daily weather. This interconnection happens in the form of waves propagating in and between these two layers. Here we use space-time spectral analysis to show that disruptions and enhancements of the stratospheric circulation modify the shape and propagation of waves in both layers.
Jake W. Casselman, Joke F. Lübbecke, Tobias Bayr, Wenjuan Huo, Sebastian Wahl, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 471–487, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-471-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-471-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has remote effects on the tropical North Atlantic (TNA), but the connections' nonlinearity (strength of response to an increasing ENSO signal) is not always well represented in models. Using the Community Earth System Model version 1 – Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Mode (CESM-WACCM) and the Flexible Ocean and Climate Infrastructure version 1, we find that the TNA responds linearly to extreme El Niño but nonlinearly to extreme La Niña for CESM-WACCM.
Raphaël de Fondeville, Zheng Wu, Enikő Székely, Guillaume Obozinski, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 287–307, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-287-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-287-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a fully data-driven, interpretable, and computationally scalable framework to characterize sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), extract statistically significant precursors, and produce machine learning (ML) forecasts. By successfully leveraging the long-lasting impact of SSWs, the ML predictions outperform sub-seasonal numerical forecasts for lead times beyond 25 d. Post-processing numerical predictions using their ML counterparts yields a performance increase of up to 20 %.
Luca G. Severino, Chahan M. Kropf, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Christopher Fairless, Andries Jan de Vries, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and David N. Bresch
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-205, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-205, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses climate projections from 30 climate models and a climate-risk assessment model to obtain projections of future windstorm damage over Europe. We find the damage projections to be highly uncertain and dominated by climate model uncertainty. We find potential increases in windstorm damage over western, and northern-central Europe, and a decrease over the rest of Europe. Our findings demonstrate the importance of climate model uncertainty for the projections of windstorms in Europe.
Wolfgang Wicker, Inna Polichtchouk, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 81–93, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-81-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-81-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Sudden stratospheric warmings are extreme weather events where the winter polar stratosphere warms by about 25 K. An improved representation of small-scale gravity waves in sub-seasonal prediction models can reduce forecast errors since their impact on the large-scale circulation is predictable multiple weeks ahead. After a sudden stratospheric warming, vertically propagating gravity waves break at a lower altitude than usual, which strengthens the long-lasting positive temperature anomalies.
Marina Friedel, Gabriel Chiodo, Andrea Stenke, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13997–14017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13997-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13997-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In spring, winds the Arctic stratosphere change direction – an event called final stratospheric warming (FSW). Here, we examine whether the interannual variability in Arctic stratospheric ozone impacts the timing of the FSW. We find that Arctic ozone shifts the FSW to earlier and later dates in years with high and low ozone via the absorption of UV light. The modulation of the FSW by ozone has consequences for surface climate in ozone-rich years, which may result in better seasonal predictions.
Nora Bergner, Marina Friedel, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Darryn Waugh, and Gabriel Chiodo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13915–13934, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13915-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13915-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Polar vortex extremes, particularly situations with an unusually weak cyclonic circulation in the stratosphere, can influence the surface climate in the spring–summer time in the Southern Hemisphere. Using chemistry-climate models and observations, we evaluate the robustness of the surface impacts. While models capture the general surface response, they do not show the observed climate patterns in midlatitude regions, which we trace back to biases in the models' circulations.
Zachary D. Lawrence, Marta Abalos, Blanca Ayarzagüena, David Barriopedro, Amy H. Butler, Natalia Calvo, Alvaro de la Cámara, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Javier García-Serrano, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Neil P. Hindley, Liwei Jia, Martin Jucker, Alexey Y. Karpechko, Hera Kim, Andrea L. Lang, Simon H. Lee, Pu Lin, Marisol Osman, Froila M. Palmeiro, Judith Perlwitz, Inna Polichtchouk, Jadwiga H. Richter, Chen Schwartz, Seok-Woo Son, Irina Statnaia, Masakazu Taguchi, Nicholas L. Tyrrell, Corwin J. Wright, and Rachel W.-Y. Wu
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 977–1001, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-977-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-977-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Forecast models that are used to predict weather often struggle to represent the Earth’s stratosphere. This may impact their ability to predict surface weather weeks in advance, on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales. We use data from many S2S forecast systems to characterize and compare the stratospheric biases present in such forecast models. These models have many similar stratospheric biases, but they tend to be worse in systems with low model tops located within the stratosphere.
Rachel Wai-Ying Wu, Zheng Wu, and Daniela I.V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 755–776, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-755-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-755-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate predictions of the stratospheric polar vortex can enhance surface weather predictability. Stratospheric events themselves are less predictable, with strong inter-event differences. We assess the predictability of stratospheric acceleration and deceleration events in a sub-seasonal prediction system, finding that the predictability of events is largely dependent on event magnitude, while extreme drivers of deceleration events are not fully represented in the model.
Peter Hitchcock, Amy Butler, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Tim Stockdale, James Anstey, Dann Mitchell, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Tongwen Wu, Yixiong Lu, Daniele Mastrangelo, Piero Malguzzi, Hai Lin, Ryan Muncaster, Bill Merryfield, Michael Sigmond, Baoqiang Xiang, Liwei Jia, Yu-Kyung Hyun, Jiyoung Oh, Damien Specq, Isla R. Simpson, Jadwiga H. Richter, Cory Barton, Jeff Knight, Eun-Pa Lim, and Harry Hendon
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5073–5092, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes an experimental protocol focused on sudden stratospheric warmings to be carried out by subseasonal forecast modeling centers. These will allow for inter-model comparisons of these major disruptions to the stratospheric polar vortex and their impacts on the near-surface flow. The protocol will lead to new insights into the contribution of the stratosphere to subseasonal forecast skill and new approaches to the dynamical attribution of extreme events.
Chen Schwartz, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Priyanka Yadav, Wen Chen, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 679–692, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-679-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-679-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Eleven operational forecast models that run on subseasonal timescales (up to 2 months) are examined to assess errors in their simulated large-scale stationary waves in the Northern Hemisphere winter. We found that models with a more finely resolved stratosphere generally do better in simulating the waves in both the stratosphere (10–50 km) and troposphere below. Moreover, a connection exists between errors in simulated time-mean convection in tropical regions and errors in the simulated waves.
Adam A. Scaife, Mark P. Baldwin, Amy H. Butler, Andrew J. Charlton-Perez, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Steven C. Hardiman, Peter Haynes, Alexey Yu Karpechko, Eun-Pa Lim, Shunsuke Noguchi, Judith Perlwitz, Lorenzo Polvani, Jadwiga H. Richter, John Scinocca, Michael Sigmond, Theodore G. Shepherd, Seok-Woo Son, and David W. J. Thompson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2601–2623, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Great progress has been made in computer modelling and simulation of the whole climate system, including the stratosphere. Since the late 20th century we also gained a much clearer understanding of how the stratosphere interacts with the lower atmosphere. The latest generation of numerical prediction systems now explicitly represents the stratosphere and its interaction with surface climate, and here we review its role in long-range predictions and projections from weeks to decades ahead.
Zheng Wu, Bernat Jiménez-Esteve, Raphaël de Fondeville, Enikő Székely, Guillaume Obozinski, William T. Ball, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 841–865, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-841-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-841-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use an advanced statistical approach to investigate the dynamics of the development of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events in the winter Northern Hemisphere. We identify distinct signals that are representative of these events and their event type at lead times beyond currently predictable lead times. The results can be viewed as a promising step towards improving the predictability of SSWs in the future by using more advanced statistical methods in operational forecasting systems.
Amy H. Butler and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 453–474, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-453-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-453-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We classify by wave geometry the stratospheric polar vortex during the final warming that occurs every spring in both hemispheres due to a combination of radiative and dynamical processes. We show that the shape of the vortex, as well as the timing of the seasonal transition, is linked to total column ozone prior to and surface weather following the final warming. These results have implications for prediction and our understanding of stratosphere–troposphere coupling processes in springtime.
Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Iuliia Polkova, Lukas Papritz, Paolo Ruggieri, Martin P. King, Panos J. Athanasiadis, Johanna Baehr, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 541–553, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-541-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-541-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the stratospheric influence on marine cold air outbreaks (MCAOs) in the North Atlantic using ERA-Interim reanalysis data. MCAOs are associated with severe Arctic weather, such as polar lows and strong surface winds. Sudden stratospheric events are found to be associated with more frequent MCAOs in the Barents and the Norwegian seas, affected by the anomalous circulation over Greenland and Scandinavia. Identification of MCAO precursors is crucial for improved long-range prediction.
Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Christian M. Grams, and Lukas Papritz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 373–388, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-373-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-373-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We cannot currently predict the weather over Europe beyond 2 weeks. The stratosphere provides a promising opportunity to go beyond that limit by providing a change in probability of certain weather regimes at the surface. However, not all stratospheric extreme events are followed by the same surface weather evolution. We show that this weather evolution is related to the tropospheric weather regime around the onset of the stratospheric extreme event for many stratospheric events.
Bernat Jiménez-Esteve and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 225–245, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-225-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-225-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric predictability over Europe on subseasonal to seasonal timescales remains limited. However, the remote impact from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can help to improve predictability. Research has suggested that the ENSO impact in the North Atlantic region is affected by nonlinearities. Here, we isolate the nonlinearities in the tropospheric pathway through the North Pacific, finding that a strong El Niño leads to a stronger and distinct impact compared to a strong La Niña.
Matthias Fischer, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Wolfgang A. Müller, and Johanna Baehr
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 129–146, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-129-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-129-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In a climate projection experiment with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), we find that a decline in the Atlantic Ocean meridional heat transport (OHT) is accompanied by a change in the seasonal cycle of the total OHT and its components. We found a northward shift of 5° and latitude-dependent shifts between 1 and 6 months in the seasonal cycle that are mainly associated with changes in the meridional velocity field rather than the temperature field.
Related subject area
Atmospheric teleconnections incl. stratosphere–troposphere coupling
Stratospheric influence on the winter North Atlantic storm track in subseasonal reforecasts
How do different pathways connect the stratospheric polar vortex to its tropospheric precursors?
A critical evaluation of decadal solar cycle imprints in the MiKlip historical ensemble simulations
Opposite spectral properties of Rossby waves during weak and strong stratospheric polar vortex events
The teleconnection of extreme El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events to the tropical North Atlantic in coupled climate models
Using large ensembles to quantify the impact of sudden stratospheric warmings and their precursors on the North Atlantic Oscillation
The stratosphere: a review of the dynamics and variability
Stratospheric downward wave reflection events modulate North American weather regimes and cold spells
Quantifying stratospheric biases and identifying their potential sources in subseasonal forecast systems
Stratospheric modulation of Arctic Oscillation extremes as represented by extended-range ensemble forecasts
The tropical route of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) teleconnections in a climate model
Decline in Etesian winds after large volcanic eruptions in the last millennium
Stationary wave biases and their effect on upward troposphere– stratosphere coupling in sub-seasonal prediction models
Stratospheric wave driving events as an alternative to sudden stratospheric warmings
Tropical influence on heat-generating atmospheric circulation over Australia strengthens through spring
Sudden stratospheric warmings during El Niño and La Niña: sensitivity to atmospheric model biases
Minimal impact of model biases on Northern Hemisphere El Niño–Southern Oscillation teleconnections
Resampling of ENSO teleconnections: accounting for cold-season evolution reduces uncertainty in the North Atlantic
The wave geometry of final stratospheric warming events
Origins of multi-decadal variability in sudden stratospheric warmings
Tropospheric eddy feedback to different stratospheric conditions in idealised baroclinic life cycles
Impacts of the North Atlantic Oscillation on winter precipitations and storm track variability in southeast Canada and the northeast United States
The role of Barents–Kara sea ice loss in projected polar vortex changes
Mechanisms and predictability of sudden stratospheric warming in winter 2018
On the intermittency of orographic gravity wave hotspots and its importance for middle atmosphere dynamics
The role of North Atlantic–European weather regimes in the surface impact of sudden stratospheric warming events
Nonlinearity in the tropospheric pathway of ENSO to the North Atlantic
Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Dominik Büeler, C. Ole Wulff, Michael Sprenger, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 231–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-231-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-231-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The stratosphere is a layer of Earth's atmosphere found above the weather systems. Changes in the stratosphere can affect the winds and the storm tracks in the North Atlantic region for a relatively long time, lasting for several weeks and even months. We show that the stratosphere can be important for weather forecasts beyond 1 week, but more work is needed to improve the accuracy of these forecasts for 3–4 weeks.
Raphael Harry Köhler, Ralf Jaiser, and Dörthe Handorf
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 1071–1086, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1071-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1071-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the local mechanisms of troposphere–stratosphere coupling on seasonal timescales during extended winter in the Northern Hemisphere. The detected tropospheric precursor regions exhibit very distinct mechanisms of coupling to the stratosphere, thus highlighting the importance of the time- and zonally resolved picture. Moreover, this study demonstrates that the ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic atmosphere model (ICON) can realistically reproduce troposphere–stratosphere coupling.
Tobias C. Spiegl, Ulrike Langematz, Holger Pohlmann, and Jürgen Kröger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 789–807, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-789-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the role of the solar cycle in atmospheric domains with the Max Plank Institute Earth System Model in high resolution (MPI-ESM-HR). We focus on the tropical upper stratosphere, Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter dynamics and potential surface imprints. We found robust solar signals at the tropical stratopause and a weak dynamical response in the NH during winter. However, we cannot confirm the importance of the 11-year solar cycle for decadal variability in the troposphere.
Michael K. Schutte, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and Jacopo Riboldi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1877, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1877, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The winter circulation in the stratosphere, a layer of the Earth’s atmosphere between 10 and 50 km height, is tightly linked to the circulation in the lower atmosphere determining our daily weather. This interconnection happens in the form of waves propagating in and between these two layers. Here we use space-time spectral analysis to show that disruptions and enhancements of the stratospheric circulation modify the shape and propagation of waves in both layers.
Jake W. Casselman, Joke F. Lübbecke, Tobias Bayr, Wenjuan Huo, Sebastian Wahl, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 471–487, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-471-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-471-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has remote effects on the tropical North Atlantic (TNA), but the connections' nonlinearity (strength of response to an increasing ENSO signal) is not always well represented in models. Using the Community Earth System Model version 1 – Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Mode (CESM-WACCM) and the Flexible Ocean and Climate Infrastructure version 1, we find that the TNA responds linearly to extreme El Niño but nonlinearly to extreme La Niña for CESM-WACCM.
Philip E. Bett, Adam A. Scaife, Steven C. Hardiman, Hazel E. Thornton, Xiaocen Shen, Lin Wang, and Bo Pang
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 213–228, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-213-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-213-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Sudden-stratospheric-warming (SSW) events can severely affect the subsequent weather at the surface. We use a large ensemble of climate model hindcasts to investigate features of the climate that make strong impacts more likely through negative NAO conditions. This allows a more robust assessment than using observations alone. Air pressure over the Arctic prior to an SSW and the zonal-mean zonal wind in the lower stratosphere have the strongest relationship with the subsequent NAO response.
Neal Butchart
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1237–1272, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1237-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1237-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In recent years, it has emerged that there is an affinity between stratospheric variability and surface events. Waves from the troposphere interacting with the mean flow drive much of the variability in the polar vortex, sudden stratospheric warmings and tropical quasi-biennial oscillation. Here we review the historical evolution of established knowledge of the stratosphere's global structure and dynamical variability, along with recent advances and theories, and identify outstanding challenges.
Gabriele Messori, Marlene Kretschmer, Simon H. Lee, and Vivien Wendt
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1215–1236, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1215-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1215-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Over 10 km above the ground, there is a region of the atmosphere called the stratosphere. While there is very little air in the stratosphere itself, its interactions with the lower parts of the atmosphere – where we live – can affect the weather. Here we study a specific example of such an interaction, whereby processes occurring at the boundary of the stratosphere can lead to a continent-wide drop in temperatures in North America during winter.
Zachary D. Lawrence, Marta Abalos, Blanca Ayarzagüena, David Barriopedro, Amy H. Butler, Natalia Calvo, Alvaro de la Cámara, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Javier García-Serrano, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Neil P. Hindley, Liwei Jia, Martin Jucker, Alexey Y. Karpechko, Hera Kim, Andrea L. Lang, Simon H. Lee, Pu Lin, Marisol Osman, Froila M. Palmeiro, Judith Perlwitz, Inna Polichtchouk, Jadwiga H. Richter, Chen Schwartz, Seok-Woo Son, Irina Statnaia, Masakazu Taguchi, Nicholas L. Tyrrell, Corwin J. Wright, and Rachel W.-Y. Wu
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 977–1001, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-977-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-977-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Forecast models that are used to predict weather often struggle to represent the Earth’s stratosphere. This may impact their ability to predict surface weather weeks in advance, on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales. We use data from many S2S forecast systems to characterize and compare the stratospheric biases present in such forecast models. These models have many similar stratospheric biases, but they tend to be worse in systems with low model tops located within the stratosphere.
Jonas Spaeth and Thomas Birner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 883–903, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-883-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-883-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Past research has demonstrated robust stratosphere–troposphere dynamical coupling following stratospheric circulation extremes. Here, we use a large set of extended-range ensemble forecasts to robustly quantify the increased risk for tropospheric circulation extremes following stratospheric extreme events. In particular, we provide estimates of the fraction of tropospheric extremes that may be attributable to preceding stratospheric extremes.
Jorge L. García-Franco, Lesley J. Gray, Scott Osprey, Robin Chadwick, and Zane Martin
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 825–844, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-825-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-825-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper establishes robust links between the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and several features of tropical climate. Robust precipitation responses, as well as changes to the Walker circulation, were found to be robustly linked to the variability in the lower stratosphere associated with the QBO using a 500-year simulation of a state-of-the-art climate model.
Stergios Misios, Ioannis Logothetis, Mads F. Knudsen, Christoffer Karoff, Vassilis Amiridis, and Kleareti Tourpali
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 811–823, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-811-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-811-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the impact of strong volcanic eruptions on the northerly Etesian winds blowing in the eastern Mediterranean. Μodel simulations of the last millennium demonstrate a robust reduction in the total number of days with Etesian winds in the post-eruption summers. The decline in the Etesian winds is attributed to a weakened Indian summer monsoon in the post-eruption summer. These findings could improve seasonal predictions of the wind circulation in the eastern Mediterranean.
Chen Schwartz, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Priyanka Yadav, Wen Chen, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 679–692, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-679-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-679-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Eleven operational forecast models that run on subseasonal timescales (up to 2 months) are examined to assess errors in their simulated large-scale stationary waves in the Northern Hemisphere winter. We found that models with a more finely resolved stratosphere generally do better in simulating the waves in both the stratosphere (10–50 km) and troposphere below. Moreover, a connection exists between errors in simulated time-mean convection in tropical regions and errors in the simulated waves.
Thomas Reichler and Martin Jucker
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 659–677, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-659-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-659-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Variations in the stratospheric polar vortex, so-called vortex events, can improve predictions of surface weather and climate. There are various ways to detect such events, and here we use the amount of wave energy that propagates into the stratosphere. The new definition is tested against so-called stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs). We find that the wave definition has advantages over SSWs, for example in terms of a stronger surface response that follows the events.
Roseanna C. McKay, Julie M. Arblaster, and Pandora Hope
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 413–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-413-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding what makes it hot in Australia in spring helps us better prepare for harmful impacts. We look at how the higher latitudes and tropics change the atmospheric circulation from early to late spring and how that changes maximum temperatures in Australia. We find that the relationship between maximum temperatures and the tropics is stronger in late spring than early spring. These findings could help improve forecasts of hot months in Australia in spring.
Nicholas L. Tyrrell, Juho M. Koskentausta, and Alexey Yu. Karpechko
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 45–58, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-45-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-45-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
El Niño events are known to effect the variability of the wintertime stratospheric polar vortex. The observed relationship differs from what is seen in climate models. Climate models have errors in their average winds and temperature, and in this work we artificially reduce those errors to see how that changes the communication of El Niño events to the polar stratosphere. We find reducing errors improves stratospheric variability, but does not explain the differences with observations.
Nicholas L. Tyrrell and Alexey Yu. Karpechko
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 913–925, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-913-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-913-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (El Niño) affect the global climate. The Pacific-to-Europe connection relies on interactions of large atmospheric waves with winds and surface pressure. We looked at how mean errors in a climate model affect its ability to simulate the Pacific-to-Europe connection. We found that even large errors in the seasonal winds did not affect the response of the model to an El Niño event, which is good news for seasonal forecasts which rely on these connections.
Martin P. King, Camille Li, and Stefan Sobolowski
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 759–776, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-759-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-759-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We re-examine the uncertainty of ENSO teleconnection to the North Atlantic by considering the November–December and January–February months in the cold season, in addition to the conventional DJF months. This is motivated by previous studies reporting varying teleconnected atmospheric anomalies and the mechanisms concerned. Our results indicate an improved confidence in the patterns of the teleconnection. The finding may also have implications on research in predictability and climate impact.
Amy H. Butler and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 453–474, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-453-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-453-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We classify by wave geometry the stratospheric polar vortex during the final warming that occurs every spring in both hemispheres due to a combination of radiative and dynamical processes. We show that the shape of the vortex, as well as the timing of the seasonal transition, is linked to total column ozone prior to and surface weather following the final warming. These results have implications for prediction and our understanding of stratosphere–troposphere coupling processes in springtime.
Oscar Dimdore-Miles, Lesley Gray, and Scott Osprey
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 205–231, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-205-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-205-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Observations of the stratosphere span roughly half a century, preventing analysis of multi-decadal variability in circulation using these data. Instead, we rely on long simulations of climate models. Here, we use a model to examine variations in northern polar stratospheric winds and find they vary with a period of around 90 years. We show that this is possibly due to variations in the size of winds over the Equator. This result may improve understanding of Equator–polar stratospheric coupling.
Philip Rupp and Thomas Birner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 111–128, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-111-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-111-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use the simple framework of an idealised baroclinic life cycle to study the tropospheric eddy feedback to different stratospheric conditions and, hence, obtain insights into the fundamental processes of stratosphere–troposphere coupling – in particular, the processes involved in creating the robust equatorward shift in the tropospheric mid-latitude jet that has been observed following sudden stratospheric warming events.
Julien Chartrand and Francesco S. R. Pausata
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 731–744, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-731-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-731-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the winter climate of eastern North America using reanalysis data. Results show that negative phases are linked with an increase in frequency of winter storms developing on the east coast of the United States, resulting in much heavier snowfall over the eastern United States. On the contrary, an increase in cyclone activity over southeastern Canada results in slightly heavier precipitation during positive phases.
Marlene Kretschmer, Giuseppe Zappa, and Theodore G. Shepherd
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 715–730, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-715-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-715-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The winds in the polar stratosphere affect the weather in the mid-latitudes, making it important to understand potential changes in response to global warming. However, climate model projections disagree on how this so-called polar vortex will change in the future. Here we show that sea ice loss in the Barents and Kara (BK) seas plays a central role in this. The time when the BK seas become ice-free differs between models, which explains some of the disagreement regarding vortex projections.
Irina A. Statnaia, Alexey Y. Karpechko, and Heikki J. Järvinen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 657–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-657-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-657-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we investigate the role of the tropospheric forcing in the occurrence of the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) that took place in February 2018, its predictability and teleconnection with the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) by analysing the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble forecast. The purpose of the paper is to present the results of the analysis of the atmospheric circulation before and during the SSW and clarify the driving mechanisms.
Ales Kuchar, Petr Sacha, Roland Eichinger, Christoph Jacobi, Petr Pisoft, and Harald E. Rieder
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 481–495, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-481-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-481-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Our study focuses on the impact of topographic structures such as the Himalayas and Rocky Mountains, so-called orographic gravity-wave hotspots. These hotspots play an important role in the dynamics of the middle atmosphere, in particular in the lower stratosphere. We study intermittency and zonally asymmetric character of these hotspots and their effects on the upper stratosphere and mesosphere using a new detection method in various modeling and observational datasets.
Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Christian M. Grams, and Lukas Papritz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 373–388, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-373-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-373-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We cannot currently predict the weather over Europe beyond 2 weeks. The stratosphere provides a promising opportunity to go beyond that limit by providing a change in probability of certain weather regimes at the surface. However, not all stratospheric extreme events are followed by the same surface weather evolution. We show that this weather evolution is related to the tropospheric weather regime around the onset of the stratospheric extreme event for many stratospheric events.
Bernat Jiménez-Esteve and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 225–245, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-225-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-225-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric predictability over Europe on subseasonal to seasonal timescales remains limited. However, the remote impact from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can help to improve predictability. Research has suggested that the ENSO impact in the North Atlantic region is affected by nonlinearities. Here, we isolate the nonlinearities in the tropospheric pathway through the North Pacific, finding that a strong El Niño leads to a stronger and distinct impact compared to a strong La Niña.
Cited articles
Ayarzagüena, B., Ineson, S., Dunstone, N. J., Baldwin, M. P., and Scaife, A. A.: Intraseasonal Effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on North Atlantic Climate, J. Climate, 31, 8861–8873, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0097.1, 2018. a
Baker, H. S., Woollings, T., Forest, C. E., and Allen, M. R.: The linear sensitivity of the north atlantic oscillation and eddy-driven jet to SSTs, J. Climate, 32, 6491–6511, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0038.1, 2019. a
Barsugli, J. J. and Battisti, D. S.: The basic effects of atmosphere-ocean thermal coupling on midlatitude variability, J. Atmos. Sci., 55, 477–493, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1998)055<0477:TBEOAO>2.0.CO;2, 1998. a
Bayr, T., Domeisen, D. I., and Wengel, C.: The effect of the equatorial Pacific cold SST bias on simulated ENSO teleconnections to the North Pacific and California, Clim. Dynam., 53, 3771–3789, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04746-9, 2019. a
Brönnimann, S.: Impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on European climate, Rev. Geophys., 45, RG3003, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006RG000199, 2007. a
Brönnimann, S., Xoplaki, E., Casty, C., Pauling, A., and Luterbacher, J.: ENSO influence on Europe during the last centuries, Clim. Dynam., 28, 181–197, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0175-z, 2007. a
Buckland, S. T. and Noreen, E. W.: Computer-Intensive Methods for Testing Hypotheses, Biometrics, 46, 540–541, https://doi.org/10.2307/2531461, 1990. a
Bulić, I. H. and Kucharski, F.: Delayed ENSO impact on spring precipitation over North/Atlantic European region, Clim. Dynam., 38, 2593–2612, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1151-9, 2012. a
Butler, A. H., Polvani, L. M., and Deser, C.: Separating the stratospheric and tropospheric pathways of El Niño–Southern Oscillation teleconnections, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 024014, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/2/024014, 2014. a
Cai, W., Santoso, A., Collins, M., Dewitte, B., Karamperidou, C., Kug, J. S., Lengaigne, M., McPhaden, M. J., Stuecker, M. F., Taschetto, A. S., Timmermann, A., Wu, L., Yeh, S. W., Wang, G., Ng, B., Jia, F., Yang, Y., Ying, J., Zheng, X. T., Bayr, T., Brown, J. R., Capotondi, A., Cobb, K. M., Gan, B., Geng, T., Ham, Y. G., Jin, F. F., Jo, H. S., Li, X., Lin, X., McGregor, S., Park, J. H., Stein, K., Yang, K., Zhang, L., and Zhong, W.: Changing El Niño–Southern Oscillation in a warming climate, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 2, 628–644, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-021-00199-z, 2021. a
Cassou, C., Terray, L., and Phillips, A. S.: Tropical Atlantic influence on European heat waves, J. Climate, 18, 2805–2811, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3506.1, 2005. a
Choi, Y. W. and Ahn, J. B.: Possible mechanisms for the coupling between late spring sea surface temperature anomalies over tropical Atlantic and East Asian summer monsoon, Clim. Dynam., 53, 6995–7009, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04970-3, 2019. a, b, c, d
Czaja, A., van der Vaart, P., and Marshall, J.: A diagnostic study of the role of remote forcing in tropical Atlantic variability, J. Climate, 15, 3280–3290, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<3280:ADSOTR>2.0.CO;2, 2002. a
Dawson, A.: Windspharm: A High-Level Library for Global Wind Field Computations Using Spherical Harmonics, Journal of Open Research Software, 4, e31, https://doi.org/10.5334/jors.129, 2016. a
Devore, J. L.: Probability and Statistics for Engineering and the Sciences, Biometrics, 47, 1638–1638, https://doi.org/10.2307/2532427, 1991. a
Ding, Q., Wang, B., Wallace, J. M., and Branstator, G.: Tropical-extratropical teleconnections in boreal summer: Observed interannual variability, J. Climate, 24, 1878–1896, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI3621.1, 2011. a
Domeisen, D. I. V., Butler, A. H., Fröhlich, K., Bittner, M., Müller, W. A., and Baehr, J.: Seasonal Predictability over Europe Arising from El Niño and Stratospheric Variability in the MPI-ESM Seasonal Prediction System, J. Climate, 28, 256–271, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00207.1, 2015. a
Domeisen, D. I. V., Garfinkel, C. I., and Butler, A. H.: The Teleconnection of El Niño Southern Oscillation to the Stratosphere, Rev. Geophys., 57, 5–47, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018RG000596, 2019. a
Enfield, D. B. and Mayer, D. A.: Tropical atlantic sea surface temperature variability and its relation to El Niño-Southern Oscillation, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 929–945, https://doi.org/10.1029/96jc03296, 1997. a
Feng, J., Chen, W., and Li, Y.: Asymmetry of the winter extra-tropical teleconnections in the Northern Hemisphere associated with two types of ENSO, Clim. Dynam., 48, 2135–2151, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3196-2, 2017. a
Fletcher, C. G. and Cassou, C.: The dynamical influence of separate teleconnections from the Pacific and Indian oceans on the northern annular mode, J. Climate, 28, 7985–8002, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00839.1, 2015. a
Fraedrich, K.: An ENSO impact on Europe?, Tellus A, 46, 541–552, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v46i4.15643, 1994. a
Fraedrich, K. and Müller, K.: Climate anomalies in Europe associated with ENSO extremes, Int. J. Climatol., 12, 25–31, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370120104, 1992. a
Frauen, C., Dommenget, D., Tyrrell, N., Rezny, M., and Wales, S.: Analysis of the nonlinearity of El Niño-Southern Oscillation teleconnections, J. Climate, 27, 6225–6244, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00757.1, 2014. a
García-Serrano, J., Losada, T., and Rodríguez-Fonseca, B.: Extratropical Atmospheric Response to the Atlantic Niño Decaying Phase, J. Climate, 24, 1613–1625, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3640.1, 2011. a
García-Serrano, J., Cassou, C., Douville, H., Giannini, A., and Doblas-Reyes, F. J.: Revisiting the ENSO teleconnection to the tropical North Atlantic, J. Climate, 30, 6945–6957, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0641.1, 2017. a, b, c
Gill, A. E.: Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 106, 447–462, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49710644905, 1980. a, b, c
Graham, N. E. and Barnett, T. P.: Sea surface temperature, surface wind divergence, and convection over tropical oceans, Science, 238, 657–659, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.238.4827.657, 1987. a
Gudgel, R. G., Rosati, A., and Gordon, C. T.: The sensitivity of a coupled atmospheric-oceanic GCM to prescribed low-level clouds over the ocean and tropical landmasses, Mon. Weather Rev., 129, 2103–2115, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<2103:TSOACA>2.0.CO;2, 2001. a
Hardiman, S. C., Dunstone, N. J., Scaife, A. A., Smith, D. M., Ineson, S., Lim, J., and Fereday, D.: The Impact of Strong El Niño and La Niña Events on the North Atlantic, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 2874–2883, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081776, 2019. a, b, c
Huang, B., Banzon, V. F., Freeman, E., Lawrimore, J., Liu, W., Peterson, T. C., Smith, T. M., Thorne, P. W., Woodruff, S. D., and Zhang, H. M.: Extended reconstructed sea surface temperature version 4 (ERSST.v4). Part I: Upgrades
and intercomparisons, J. Climate, 28, 911–930, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00006.1, 2015a. a
Huang, B., Banzon, V. F., Freeman, E., Lawrimore, J., Liu, W., Peterson, T. C., Smith, T. M., Thorne, P. W., Woodruff, S. D., and Zhang, H. M.:
Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST), Version 4, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information [data set], https://doi.org/10.7289/V5KD1VVF, 2015b. a
Izumo, T., Vialard, J., Lengaigne, M., De Boyer Montegut, C., Behera, S. K., Luo, J. J., Cravatte, S., Masson, S., and Yamagata, T.: Influence of the state of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the following years El Niño, Nat. Geosci., 3, 168–172, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo760, 2010. a
Japan Meteorological Agency: JRA-55: Japanese 55-year Reanalysis, Monthly Means and Variances, Research Data Archive at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Computational and Information Systems Laboratory [data set], Boulder, CO, https://doi.org/10.5065/D60G3H5B, 2013. a
Jiang, L. and Li, T.: Relative roles of El Niño-induced extratropical and tropical forcing in generating Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) SST anomaly, Clim. Dynam., 53, 3791–3804, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04748-7, 2019. a
Jiménez-Esteve, B. and Domeisen, D. I. V.: The tropospheric pathway of the ENSO-North Atlantic teleconnection, J. Climate, 31, 4563–4584, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0716.1, 2018. a, b
Joshi, M. K., Abid, M. A., and Kucharski, F.: The Role of an Indian Ocean Heating Dipole in the ENSO Teleconnection to the North Atlantic European Region in Early Winter during the Twentieth Century in Reanalysis and CMIP5 Simulations, J. Climate, 34, 1047–1060, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0269.1, 2021. a
Jung, O., Sung, M. K., Sato, K., Lim, Y. K., Kim, S. J., Baek, E. H., Jeong, J. H., and Kim, B. M.: How does the SST variability over the western North Atlantic Ocean control Arctic warming over the Barents-Kara Seas?, Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 034021, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5f3b, 2017. a, b
King, J. A., Washington, R., and Engelstaedter, S.: Representation of the Indian Ocean Walker circulation in climate models and links to Kenyan rainfall, Int. J. Climatol., 41, E616–E643, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6714, 2021. a
Kobayashi, S., Ota, Y., Harada, Y., Ebita, A., Moriya, M., Onoda, H., Onogi, K., Kamahori, H., Kobayashi, C., Endo, H., Miyaoka, K., and Kiyotoshi, T.: The JRA-55 reanalysis: General specifications and basic characteristics, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 93, 5–48, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2015-001, 2015. a
Lee, S.-K., Enfield, D. B., and Wang, C.: Why do some El Niños have no impact on tropical North Atlantic SST?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L16705, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL034734, 2008. a
Lee, S. K., Wang, C., and Mapes, B. E.: A simple atmospheric model of the local and teleconnection responses to tropical heating anomalies, J. Climate, 22, 272–284, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2303.1, 2009. a
Li, G., Chen, J., Wang, X., Luo, X., Yang, D., Zhou, W., Tan, Y., and Yan, H.: Remote impact of North Atlantic sea surface temperature on rainfall in southwestern China during boreal spring, Clim. Dynam., 50, 541–553, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3625-x, 2018. a, b, c
Li, J. and Wang, J. X.: A new North Atlantic Oscillation index and its variability, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 20, 661–676, https://doi.org/10.1007/bf02915394, 2003. a
Lim, Y. K.: The East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR) teleconnection in the North Atlantic: climate impact and relation to Rossby wave propagation, Clim. Dynam., 44, 3211–3222, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2381-4, 2015. a, b, c
Lledó, L., Cionni, I., Torralba, V., Bretonniere, P. A., and Samsó, M.: Seasonal prediction of Euro-Atlantic teleconnections from multiple systems, Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 074009, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab87d2, 2020. a, b, c
Maher, P., Vallis, G. K., Sherwood, S. C., Webb, M. J., and Sansom, P. G.: The Impact of Parameterized Convection on Climatological Precipitation in Atmospheric Global Climate Models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 3728–3736, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076826, 2018. a
Matsumura, S. and Kosaka, Y.: Arctic–Eurasian climate linkage induced by tropical ocean variability, Nat. Commun., 10, 4–6, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-11359-7, 2019. a
Mezzina, B., García-Serrano, J., Bladé, I., and Kucharski, F.: Dynamics of the ENSO teleconnection and NAO variability in the North Atlantic–European late winter, J. Climate, 33, 907–923, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0192.1, 2020. a, b
Michel, C. and Rivière, G.: The link between rossby wave breakings and weather regime transitions, J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 1730–1748, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JAS3635.1, 2011. a
Neddermann, N. C., Müller, W. A., Dobrynin, M., Düsterhus, A., and Baehr, J.: Seasonal predictability of European summer climate re-assessed, Clim. Dynam., 53, 3039–3056, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04678-4, 2019. a, b
Okumura, Y., Xie, S.-P., Numaguti, A., and Tanimoto, Y.: Tropical Atlantic air-sea interaction and its influence on the NAO, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 1507–1510, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000GL012565, 2001. a
Osborne, J. W. and Waters, E.: Four assumptions of multiple regression that researchers should always test, Practical Assessment, Research and Evaluation, 8, 2, https://doi.org/10.7275/r222-hv23, 2003. a
Parfitt, R., Czaja, A., Minobe, S., and Kuwano-Yoshida, A.: The atmospheric frontal response to SST perturbations in the Gulf Stream region, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 2299–2306, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL067723, 2016. a
Peng, S., Robinson, W. A., and Li, S.: Mechanisms for the NAO responses to the North Atlantic SST tripole, J. Climate, 16, 1987–2004, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<1987:MFTNRT>2.0.CO;2, 2003. a
Rieke, O., Greatbatch, R. J., and Gollan, G.: Nonstationarity of the link between the Tropics and the summer East Atlantic pattern, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 22, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1026, 2021. a, b
Rodríguez-Fonseca, B., Suárez-Moreno, R., Ayarzagüena, B., López-Parages, J., Gómara, I., Villamayor, J., Mohino, E., Losada, T., and Castaño-Tierno, A.: A review of ENSO influence on the North Atlantic. A non-stationary signal, Atmosphere, 7, 87, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos7070087, 2016. a
Rojo Hernández, J. D. and Mesa, Ó. J.: A Simple Conceptual Model for the Heat Induced Circulation over Northern South America and Meso-America, Atmosphere, 11, 1235, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11111235, 2020. a, b
Sabin, T. P., Babu, C. A., and Joseph, P. V.: SST-convection relation over tropical oceans, Int. J. Climatol., 33, 1424–1435, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3522, 2013. a
Saeed, S., Van Lipzig, N., Müller, W. A., Saeed, F., and Zanchettin, D.: Influence of the circumglobal wave-train on European summer precipitation, Clim. Dynam., 43, 503–515, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1871-0, 2014. a
Sardeshmukh, P. D. and Hoskins, B. J.: The generation of global rotational flow by steady idealized tropical divergence, J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 1228–1251, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1988)045<1228:TGOGRF>2.0.CO;2, 1988. a
Scaife, A. A., Comer, R. E., Dunstone, N. J., Knight, J. R., Smith, D. M., MacLachlan, C., Martin, N., Peterson, K. A., Rowlands, D., Carroll, E. B., Belcher, S., and Slingo, J.: Tropical rainfall, Rossby waves and regional winter climate predictions, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 143, 1–11, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2910, 2017. a
Simpson, I. R. and Polvani, L. M.: Revisiting the relationship between jet position, forced response, and annular mode variability in the southern midlatitudes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 2896–2903, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL067989, 2016. a
Sung, M.-K., Ham, Y.-G., Kug, J.-S., and An, S.-I.: An alterative effect by the tropical North Atlantic SST in intraseasonally varying El Niño teleconnection over the North Atlantic, Tellus A, 65, 19863, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v65i0.19863, 2013. a
Taschetto, A. S., Rodrigues, R. R., Meehl, G. A., McGregor, S., and England, M. H.: How sensitive are the Pacific–tropical North Atlantic teleconnections to the position and intensity of El Niño-related warming?, Clim. Dynam., 46, 1841–1860, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2679-x, 2016. a
Thomson, S. I. and Vallis, G. K.: Atmospheric response to SST anomalies. Part I: Background-state dependence, teleconnections, and local effects in winter, J. Atmos. Sci., 75, 4107–4124, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-17-0297.1, 2018a. a
Thomson, S. I. and Vallis, G. K.: Atmospheric response to SST anomalies. Part II: Background-state dependence, teleconnections, and local effects in summer, J. Atmos. Sci., 75, 4125–4138, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-17-0298.1, 2018b.
a
Toniazzo, T. and Scaife, A. A.: The influence of ENSO on winter North Atlantic climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, 1–5, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027881, 2006. a
Vallis, G. K., Colyer, G., Geen, R., Gerber, E., Jucker, M., Maher, P., Paterson, A., Pietschnig, M., Penn, J., and Thomson, S. I.: Isca, v1.0: a framework for the global modelling of the atmospheres of Earth and other planets at varying levels of complexity, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 843–859, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-843-2018, 2018 (data available at: https://github.com/ExeClim/Isca, last access: May 2020). a, b
Wang, C.: Atlantic climate variability and its associated atmospheric circulation cells, J. Climate, 15, 1516–1536, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1516:ACVAIA>2.0.CO;2, 2002. a
Wang, C., Enfield, D. B., Lee, S.K., and Landsea, C. W.: Influences of the Atlantic warm pool on western hemisphere summer rainfall and Atlantic hurricanes, J. Climate, 19, 3011–3028, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3770.1, 2006. a, b
Wang, C., Lee, S. K., and Mechoso, C. R.: Interhemispheric influence of the Atlantic warm pool on the Southeastern pacific, J. Climate, 23, 404–418, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3127.1, 2010. a
Wu, Z. and Lin, H.: Interdecadal variability of the ENSO-North Atlantic Oscillation connection in boreal summer, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 138, 1668–1675, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.1889, 2012. a
Yu, B., Zwiers, F. W., Boer, G. J., and Ting, M. F.: Structure and variances of equatorial zonal circulation in a multimodel ensemble, Clim. Dynam., 39, 2403–2419, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1372-6, 2012. a
Zhao, Y., Zheng, Z., Zhi, R., Feng, G., and Cheng, J.: The zonal gradient structures of wintertime SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific and their connection to the Walker circulation, Clim. Dynam., 58, 841–859, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05939-x, 2021. a
Zhong, A., Hendon, H. H., and Alves, O.: Indian Ocean variability and its association with ENSO in a global coupled model, J. Climate, 18, 3634–3649, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3493.1, 2005. a
Short summary
Using an atmospheric general circulation model, we analyze how the tropical North Atlantic influences the El Niño–Southern Oscillation connection towards the North Atlantic European region. We also focus on the lesser-known boreal spring and summer response following an El Niño–Southern Oscillation event. Our results show that altered tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures may cause different responses over the Caribbean region, consequently influencing the North Atlantic European region.
Using an atmospheric general circulation model, we analyze how the tropical North Atlantic...
