Articles | Volume 4, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-543-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-543-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
23 Jun 2023
Research article |
| 23 Jun 2023
| 23 Jun 2023
Convection-parameterized and convection-permitting modelling of heavy precipitation in decadal simulations of the greater Alpine region with COSMO-CLM
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe
Institute of Technology (KIT), 76131 Karlsruhe, Germany
Hendrik Feldmann
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe
Institute of Technology (KIT), 76131 Karlsruhe, Germany
Etor Lucio-Eceiza
Institute of Meteorology, Freie Universität Berlin (FUB), 14195 Berlin, Germany
Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ, German Climate Computing Center), 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Joaquim G. Pinto
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe
Institute of Technology (KIT), 76131 Karlsruhe, Germany
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Heavy precipitation in July 2021 led to widespread floods in western Germany and neighboring countries. The event was among the five heaviest precipitation events of the past 70 years in Germany, and the river discharges exceeded by far the statistical 100-year return values. Simulations of the event under future climate conditions revealed a strong and non-linear effect on flood peaks: for +2 K global warming, an 18 % increase in rainfall led to a 39 % increase of the flood peak in the Ahr river.
Susanna Mohr, Uwe Ehret, Michael Kunz, Patrick Ludwig, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Florian Ehmele, Hendrik Feldmann, Mário J. Franca, Christian Gattke, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Marc Scheibel, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
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The flood event in July 2021 was one of the most severe disasters in Europe in the last half century. The objective of this two-part study is a multi-disciplinary assessment that examines the complex process interactions in different compartments, from meteorology to hydrological conditions to hydro-morphological processes to impacts on assets and environment. In addition, we address the question of what measures are possible to generate added value to early response management.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, Markus Augenstein, Georgy Ayzel, Klemens Barfus, Ribu Cherian, Lisa Dillenardt, Felix Fauer, Hendrik Feldmann, Maik Heistermann, Alexia Karwat, Frank Kaspar, Heidi Kreibich, Etor Emanuel Lucio-Eceiza, Edmund P. Meredith, Susanna Mohr, Deborah Niermann, Stephan Pfahl, Florian Ruff, Henning W. Rust, Lukas Schoppa, Thomas Schwitalla, Stella Steidl, Annegret H. Thieken, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Johannes Quaas
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In a warming climate, extreme precipitation events are becoming more frequent. To advance our knowledge on such phenomena, we present a multidisciplinary analysis of a selected case study that took place on 29 June 2017 in the Berlin metropolitan area. Our analysis provides evidence of the extremeness of the case from the atmospheric and the impacts perspectives as well as new insights on the physical mechanisms of the event at the meteorological and climate scales.
Samira Khodayar, Silvio Davolio, Paolo Di Girolamo, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Emmanouil Flaounas, Nadia Fourrie, Keun-Ok Lee, Didier Ricard, Benoit Vie, Francois Bouttier, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, and Veronique Ducrocq
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Heavy precipitation (HP) constitutes a major meteorological threat in the western Mediterranean. Every year, recurrent events affect the area with fatal consequences. Despite this being a well-known issue, open questions still remain. The understanding of the underlying mechanisms and the modeling representation of the events must be improved. In this article we present the most recent lessons learned from the Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX).
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, Samiro Khodayar, and Peter Knippertz
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The prediction capabilities of GPS, operational (low-resolution) and targeted (high-resolution) radiosondes for data assimilation in a Mediterranean heavy precipitation event at different model resolutions are investigated. The results show that even if GPS provides accurate observations, their lack of vertical information hampers the improvement, demonstrating the need for assimilating radiosondes, where the location and timing of release was more determinant than the vertical resolution.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez and Samiro Khodayar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2753–2776, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2753-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2753-2020, 2020
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Heavy precipitation causes serious losses and several casualties in the western Mediterranean every year. To predict this phenomenon better, we aim at understanding how the models represent the interaction between atmospheric moisture and precipitation by nudging a 10 min, state-of-the-art GPS data set. We found, for the selected case in autumn 2012, that the improvement in the modelling of precipitation stems from relevant variations of atmospheric instability and humidity above 1.5 km.
Alberto Caldas-Álvarez, Samiro Khodayar, and Olivier Bock
Adv. Sci. Res., 14, 157–162, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-157-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-157-2017, 2017
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The representation of the atmospheric moisture distribution in weather and climate prediction models has been identified as a source of error in the representation of heavy precipitation events. This research work shows the relevance of overcoming deficiencies in the representation of the moisture content in the vertical direction, even after assimilating humidity data for a case study characteristic of the western Mediterranean by early autumn.
Julia Moemken, Inovasita Alifdini, Alexandre M. Ramos, Alexandros Georgiadis, Aidan Brocklehurst, Lukas Braun, and Joaquim G. Pinto
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Marcus Breil, Vanessa K. M. Schneider, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Biogeosciences, 21, 811–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-811-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-811-2024, 2024
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The general impact of afforestation on the regional climate conditions in Europe during the period 1986–2015 is investigated. For this purpose, a regional climate model simulation is performed, in which afforestation during this period is considered, and results are compared to a simulation in which this is not the case. Results show that afforestation had discernible impacts on the climate change signal in Europe, which may have mitigated the local warming trend, especially in summer in Europe.
Aleksa Stanković, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Rodrigo Caballero
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-38, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-38, 2024
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The article studies extreme winds near the surface over the North Atlantic ocean. These winds are caused by storms that pass through this region. The strongest storms that have occurred in the winters from 1950–2020 are studied in detail and compared to weaker, but still strong storms. The analysis shows that the storms associated with the strongest winds are preceded by another, older storm that traveled through the same region and made the conditions suitable for development of extreme winds.
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-212, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-212, 2023
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Florian Knutzen, Paul Averbeck, Caterina Barrasso, Laurens M. Bouwer, Barry Gardiner, José M. Grünzweig, Sabine Hänel, Karsten Haustein, Marius Rohde Johannessen, Stefan Kollet, Joni-Pekka Pietikaeinen, Karolina Pietras-Couffignal, Joaquim G. Pinto, Diana Rechid, Efi Rousi, Ana Russo, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Julian Wendler, Elena Xoplaki, and Daniel Gliksman
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Daniel Gliksman, Paul Averbeck, Nico Becker, Barry Gardiner, Valeri Goldberg, Jens Grieger, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Alexia Karwat, Florian Knutzen, Hilke S. Lentink, Rike Lorenz, Deborah Niermann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Ronald Queck, Astrid Ziemann, and Christian L. E. Franzke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2171–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, 2023
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Wind and storms are a major natural hazard and can cause severe economic damage and cost human lives. Hence, it is important to gauge the potential impact of using indices, which potentially enable us to estimate likely impacts of storms or other wind events. Here, we review basic aspects of wind and storm generation and provide an extensive overview of wind impacts and available indices. This is also important to better prepare for future climate change and corresponding changes to winds.
Efi Rousi, Andreas H. Fink, Lauren S. Andersen, Florian N. Becker, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga, Marcus Breil, Giacomo Cozzi, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Deborah Niermann, Dragan Petrovic, Andy Richling, Johannes Riebold, Stella Steidl, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Dim Coumou, André Düsterhus, Florian Ellsäßer, Georgios Fragkoulidis, Daniel Gliksman, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Kai Kornhuber, Harald Kunstmann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Elena Xoplaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1699–1718, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, 2023
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The objective of this study was to perform a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of the 2018 extreme summer in terms of heat and drought in central and northern Europe, with a particular focus on Germany. A combination of favorable large-scale conditions and locally dry soils were related with the intensity and persistence of the events. We also showed that such extremes have become more likely due to anthropogenic climate change and might occur almost every year under +2 °C of global warming.
Patrick Ludwig, Florian Ehmele, Mário J. Franca, Susanna Mohr, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Uwe Ehret, Hendrik Feldmann, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Michael Kunz, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1287–1311, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation in July 2021 led to widespread floods in western Germany and neighboring countries. The event was among the five heaviest precipitation events of the past 70 years in Germany, and the river discharges exceeded by far the statistical 100-year return values. Simulations of the event under future climate conditions revealed a strong and non-linear effect on flood peaks: for +2 K global warming, an 18 % increase in rainfall led to a 39 % increase of the flood peak in the Ahr river.
Marcus Breil, Felix Krawczyk, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 243–253, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-243-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-243-2023, 2023
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We provide evidence that biogeophysical effects of afforestation can counteract the favorable biogeochemical climate effect of reduced CO2 concentrations. By changing the land surface characteristics, afforestation reduces vegetation surface temperatures, resulting in a reduced outgoing longwave radiation in summer, although CO2 concentrations are reduced. Since forests additionally absorb a lot of solar radiation due to their dark surfaces, afforestation has a total warming effect.
Susanna Mohr, Uwe Ehret, Michael Kunz, Patrick Ludwig, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Florian Ehmele, Hendrik Feldmann, Mário J. Franca, Christian Gattke, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Marc Scheibel, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 525–551, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The flood event in July 2021 was one of the most severe disasters in Europe in the last half century. The objective of this two-part study is a multi-disciplinary assessment that examines the complex process interactions in different compartments, from meteorology to hydrological conditions to hydro-morphological processes to impacts on assets and environment. In addition, we address the question of what measures are possible to generate added value to early response management.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, Markus Augenstein, Georgy Ayzel, Klemens Barfus, Ribu Cherian, Lisa Dillenardt, Felix Fauer, Hendrik Feldmann, Maik Heistermann, Alexia Karwat, Frank Kaspar, Heidi Kreibich, Etor Emanuel Lucio-Eceiza, Edmund P. Meredith, Susanna Mohr, Deborah Niermann, Stephan Pfahl, Florian Ruff, Henning W. Rust, Lukas Schoppa, Thomas Schwitalla, Stella Steidl, Annegret H. Thieken, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Johannes Quaas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3701–3724, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, 2022
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In a warming climate, extreme precipitation events are becoming more frequent. To advance our knowledge on such phenomena, we present a multidisciplinary analysis of a selected case study that took place on 29 June 2017 in the Berlin metropolitan area. Our analysis provides evidence of the extremeness of the case from the atmospheric and the impacts perspectives as well as new insights on the physical mechanisms of the event at the meteorological and climate scales.
Lea Eisenstein, Benedikt Schulz, Ghulam A. Qadir, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Peter Knippertz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1157–1182, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1157-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1157-2022, 2022
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Mesoscale high-wind features within extratropical cyclones can cause immense damage. Here, we present RAMEFI, a novel approach to objectively identify the wind features based on a probabilistic random forest. RAMEFI enables a wide range of applications such as probabilistic predictions for the occurrence or a multi-decadal climatology of these features, which will be the focus of Part 2 of the study, with the goal of improving wind and, specifically, wind gust forecasts in the long run.
Assaf Hochman, Francesco Marra, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Yizhak Yosef, and Georgios Zittis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 749–777, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, 2022
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Gaining a complete understanding of extreme weather, from its physical drivers to its impacts on society, is important in supporting future risk reduction and adaptation measures. Here, we provide a review of the available scientific literature, knowledge gaps and key open questions in the study of extreme weather events over the vulnerable eastern Mediterranean region.
Lisa-Ann Kautz, Olivia Martius, Stephan Pfahl, Joaquim G. Pinto, Alexandre M. Ramos, Pedro M. Sousa, and Tim Woollings
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 305–336, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-305-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-305-2022, 2022
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Atmospheric blocking is associated with stationary, self-sustaining and long-lasting high-pressure systems. They can cause or at least influence surface weather extremes, such as heat waves, cold spells, heavy precipitation events, droughts or wind extremes. The location of the blocking determines where and what type of extreme event will occur. These relationships are also important for weather prediction and may change due to global warming.
Animesh K. Gain, Yves Bühler, Pascal Haegeli, Daniela Molinari, Mario Parise, David J. Peres, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kai Schröter, Ricardo M. Trigo, María Carmen Llasat, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 985–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, 2022
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To mark the 20th anniversary of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS), an interdisciplinary and international journal dedicated to the public discussion and open-access publication of high-quality studies and original research on natural hazards and their consequences, we highlight 11 key publications covering major subject areas of NHESS that stood out within the past 20 years.
Florian Ehmele, Lisa-Ann Kautz, Hendrik Feldmann, Yi He, Martin Kadlec, Fanni D. Kelemen, Hilke S. Lentink, Patrick Ludwig, Desmond Manful, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 677–692, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-677-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-677-2022, 2022
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For various applications, it is crucial to have profound knowledge of the frequency, severity, and risk of extreme flood events. Such events are characterized by very long return periods which observations can not cover. We use a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations as input for a hydrological model. Precipitation data were post-processed to reduce systematic errors. The representation of precipitation and discharge is improved, and estimates of long return periods become robust.
Kim H. Stadelmaier, Patrick Ludwig, Pascal Bertran, Pierre Antoine, Xiaoxu Shi, Gerrit Lohmann, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Clim. Past, 17, 2559–2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2559-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2559-2021, 2021
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We use regional climate simulations for the Last Glacial Maximum to reconstruct permafrost and to identify areas of thermal contraction cracking of the ground in western Europe. We find ground cracking, a precondition for the development of permafrost proxies, south of the probable permafrost border, implying that permafrost was not the limiting factor for proxy development. A good agreement with permafrost and climate proxy data is achieved when easterly winds are modelled more frequently.
Samira Khodayar, Silvio Davolio, Paolo Di Girolamo, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Emmanouil Flaounas, Nadia Fourrie, Keun-Ok Lee, Didier Ricard, Benoit Vie, Francois Bouttier, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, and Veronique Ducrocq
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17051–17078, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17051-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17051-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation (HP) constitutes a major meteorological threat in the western Mediterranean. Every year, recurrent events affect the area with fatal consequences. Despite this being a well-known issue, open questions still remain. The understanding of the underlying mechanisms and the modeling representation of the events must be improved. In this article we present the most recent lessons learned from the Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX).
Silje Lund Sørland, Roman Brogli, Praveen Kumar Pothapakula, Emmanuele Russo, Jonas Van de Walle, Bodo Ahrens, Ivonne Anders, Edoardo Bucchignani, Edouard L. Davin, Marie-Estelle Demory, Alessandro Dosio, Hendrik Feldmann, Barbara Früh, Beate Geyer, Klaus Keuler, Donghyun Lee, Delei Li, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Seung-Ki Min, Hans-Jürgen Panitz, Burkhardt Rockel, Christoph Schär, Christian Steger, and Wim Thiery
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5125–5154, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5125-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5125-2021, 2021
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We review the contribution from the CLM-Community to regional climate projections following the CORDEX framework over Europe, South Asia, East Asia, Australasia, and Africa. How the model configuration, horizontal and vertical resolutions, and choice of driving data influence the model results for the five domains is assessed, with the purpose of aiding the planning and design of regional climate simulations in the future.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, Samiro Khodayar, and Peter Knippertz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 561–580, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-561-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-561-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The prediction capabilities of GPS, operational (low-resolution) and targeted (high-resolution) radiosondes for data assimilation in a Mediterranean heavy precipitation event at different model resolutions are investigated. The results show that even if GPS provides accurate observations, their lack of vertical information hampers the improvement, demonstrating the need for assimilating radiosondes, where the location and timing of release was more determinant than the vertical resolution.
Assaf Hochman, Sebastian Scher, Julian Quinting, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 133–149, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021, 2021
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Skillful forecasts of extreme weather events have a major socioeconomic relevance. Here, we compare two approaches to diagnose the predictability of eastern Mediterranean heat waves: one based on recent developments in dynamical systems theory and one leveraging numerical ensemble weather forecasts. We conclude that the former can be a useful and cost-efficient complement to conventional numerical forecasts for understanding the dynamics of eastern Mediterranean heat waves.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez and Samiro Khodayar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2753–2776, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2753-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2753-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation causes serious losses and several casualties in the western Mediterranean every year. To predict this phenomenon better, we aim at understanding how the models represent the interaction between atmospheric moisture and precipitation by nudging a 10 min, state-of-the-art GPS data set. We found, for the selected case in autumn 2012, that the improvement in the modelling of precipitation stems from relevant variations of atmospheric instability and humidity above 1.5 km.
Florian Ehmele, Lisa-Ann Kautz, Hendrik Feldmann, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 469–490, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-469-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-469-2020, 2020
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This study presents a large novel data set of climate model simulations for central Europe covering the years 1900–2028 at a 25 km resolution. The focus is on intensive areal precipitation values. The data set is validated against observations using different statistical approaches. The results reveal an adequate quality in a statistical sense as well as some long-term variability with phases of increased and decreased heavy precipitation. The predictions of the near future show continuity.
Christoph P. Gatzen, Andreas H. Fink, David M. Schultz, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1335–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1335-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1335-2020, 2020
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Derechos are widespread, convectively induced severe wind events. A climatology of derechos in Germany is presented. It shows that derechos are not uncommon across the country. Two seasonal peaks indicate a comparable derecho risk in summer and winter. At the same time, we found two different derecho types, a warm- and a cold-season type. We present characteristics of both derecho types that can help forecasters to estimate the potential derecho threat in a given weather situation.
Joaquim G. Pinto and Patrick Ludwig
Clim. Past, 16, 611–626, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-611-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-611-2020, 2020
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The statistics and characteristics of cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe are analysed for Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate conditions. LGM extreme cyclones were more frequent and characterised by less precipitation and stronger wind speeds than pre-industrial analogues. These results agree with the view of a colder and drier Europe during LGM, with little vegetation and affected by frequent dust storms, leading to the buildup of thick loess deposits in Europe.
Cristina Primo, Fanni D. Kelemen, Hendrik Feldmann, Naveed Akhtar, and Bodo Ahrens
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 5077–5095, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5077-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5077-2019, 2019
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The frequency of extreme events has changed, having a direct impact on human lives. Regional climate models help us to predict these regional climate changes. This work presents an atmosphere–ocean coupled regional climate model over the European domain, including three marginal seas: the Mediterranean, North, and Baltic Sea. We run a simulation for the complete 20th century with a spatial resolution of about 25 km to show that the system is stable and the benefit of coupling.
Luca Mathias, Patrick Ludwig, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1023–1040, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1023-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1023-2019, 2019
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Convective systems producing severe winds occasionally affect Europe during wintertime and the majority of these storms develop along well-defined cold fronts of extratropical cyclones. However, on 3 January 2014, a storm formed in a postfrontal air mass over western Europe. This study analyses the prevailing environmental conditions and the predictability of this storm. Our results reveal the difficulty of forecasting cold-season convective storms when they are not associated with a cold front.
Mark Reyers, Hendrik Feldmann, Sebastian Mieruch, Joaquim G. Pinto, Marianne Uhlig, Bodo Ahrens, Barbara Früh, Kameswarrao Modali, Natalie Laube, Julia Moemken, Wolfgang Müller, Gerd Schädler, and Christoph Kottmeier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 171–187, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-171-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-171-2019, 2019
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In this study, the regional MiKlip decadal prediction system is evaluated. This system has been established to deliver highly resolved forecasts for the timescale of 1 to 10 years for Europe. Evidence of the general potential for regional decadal predictability for the variables temperature, precipitation, and wind speed is provided, but the performance of the prediction system depends on region, variable, and system generation.
Lisa-Ann Kautz, Florian Ehmele, Patrick Ludwig, Hilke S. Lentink, Fanni D. Kelemen, Martin Kadlec, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-77, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-77, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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To quantify the flooding risk for Europe it is necessary to run hydrological models. As input for these models, a consistent stochastic precipitation dataset is needed. In the present study, a combined approach is presented on how to generate such a dataset based on dynamical downscaling and subsequent bias correction. Empirical quantile mapping was identified as suitable bias correction method as it led to improvements for specific severe river floods as well as in a climatological perspective.
Matthew D. K. Priestley, Helen F. Dacre, Len C. Shaffrey, Kevin I. Hodges, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2991–3006, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2991-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2991-2018, 2018
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This study investigates the role of the clustering of extratropical cyclones in driving wintertime wind losses across a large European region. To do this over 900 years of climate model data have been used and analysed. The main conclusion of this work is that cyclone clustering acts to increase wind-driven losses in the winter by 10 %–20 % when compared to the losses from a random series of cyclones, with this specifically being for the higher loss years.
Jorge Eiras-Barca, Alexandre M. Ramos, Joaquim G. Pinto, Ricardo M. Trigo, Margarida L. R. Liberato, and Gonzalo Miguez-Macho
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 91–102, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-91-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-91-2018, 2018
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This paper analyses the potential role of atmospheric rivers in the explosive cyclone deepening. Using ERA-Interim reanalysis data for 1979–2011, we analyse the concurrence of atmospheric rivers and explosive cyclogenesis over the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins for the extended winter months (ONDJFM).
Alberto Caldas-Álvarez, Samiro Khodayar, and Olivier Bock
Adv. Sci. Res., 14, 157–162, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-157-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-157-2017, 2017
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The representation of the atmospheric moisture distribution in weather and climate prediction models has been identified as a source of error in the representation of heavy precipitation events. This research work shows the relevance of overcoming deficiencies in the representation of the moisture content in the vertical direction, even after assimilating humidity data for a case study characteristic of the western Mediterranean by early autumn.
S. Mieruch, H. Feldmann, G. Schädler, C.-J. Lenz, S. Kothe, and C. Kottmeier
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2983–2999, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2983-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2983-2014, 2014
M. K. Karremann, J. G. Pinto, P. J. von Bomhard, and M. Klawa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2041–2052, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2041-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2041-2014, 2014
M. L. R. Liberato, J. G. Pinto, R. M. Trigo, P. Ludwig, P. Ordóñez, D. Yuen, and I. F. Trigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2239–2251, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2239-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2239-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Atmospheric predictability
Understanding winter windstorm predictability over Europe
Intrinsic predictability limits arising from Indian Ocean Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) heating: effects on tropical and extratropical teleconnections
Predictable decadal forcing of the North Atlantic jet speed by sub-polar North Atlantic sea surface temperatures
Exploiting the signal-to-noise ratio in multi-system predictions of boreal summer precipitation and temperature
Uncertainty growth and forecast reliability during extratropical cyclogenesis
Improved extended-range prediction of persistent stratospheric perturbations using machine learning
Increased vertical resolution in the stratosphere reveals role of gravity waves after sudden stratospheric warmings
The impact of microphysical uncertainty conditional on initial and boundary condition uncertainty under varying synoptic control
Subseasonal precipitation forecasts of opportunity over central southwest Asia
Predictability of a tornado environment index from El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Arctic Oscillation
Differences in the sub-seasonal predictability of extreme stratospheric events
Impact of Eurasian autumn snow on the winter North Atlantic Oscillation in seasonal forecasts of the 20th century
Bimodality in ensemble forecasts of 2 m temperature: identification
Flow dependence of wintertime subseasonal prediction skill over Europe
Seasonal forecasts of the Saharan heat low characteristics: a multi-model assessment
Emergence of representative signals for sudden stratospheric warmings beyond current predictable lead times
The impact of GPS and high-resolution radiosonde nudging on the simulation of heavy precipitation during HyMeX IOP6
Seasonal climate influences on the timing of the Australian monsoon onset
Subseasonal prediction of springtime Pacific–North American transport using upper-level wind forecasts
A dynamic and thermodynamic analysis of the 11 December 2017 tornadic supercell in the Highveld of South Africa
How an uncertain short-wave perturbation on the North Atlantic wave guide affects the forecast of an intense Mediterranean cyclone (Medicane Zorbas)
Robust predictors for seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity identified with causal effect networks
Subseasonal midlatitude prediction skill following Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and Madden–Julian Oscillation activity
Large impact of tiny model domain shifts for the Pentecost 2014 mesoscale convective system over Germany
Lisa Degenhardt, Gregor C. Leckebusch, and Adam A. Scaife
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 587–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-587-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-587-2024, 2024
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This study investigates how dynamical factors that are known to influence cyclone or windstorm development and strengthening also influence the seasonal forecast skill of severe winter windstorms. This study shows which factors are well represented in the seasonal forecast model, the Global Seasonal forecasting system version 5 (GloSea5), and which might need improvement to refine the forecast of severe winter windstorms.
David Martin Straus, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Sarah-Jane Lock, Franco Molteni, and Priyanka Yadav
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 1001–1018, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1001-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1001-2023, 2023
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The global response to the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is potentially predictable. Yet the diabatic heating is uncertain even within a particular episode of the MJO. Experiments with a global model probe the limitations imposed by this uncertainty. The large-scale tropical heating is predictable for 25 to 45 d, yet the associated Rossby wave source that links the heating to the midlatitude circulation is predictable for 15 to 20 d. This limitation has not been recognized in prior work.
Kristian Strommen, Tim Woollings, Paolo Davini, Paolo Ruggieri, and Isla R. Simpson
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 853–874, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-853-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-853-2023, 2023
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We present evidence which strongly suggests that decadal variations in the intensity of the North Atlantic winter jet stream can be predicted by current forecast models but that decadal variations in its position appear to be unpredictable. It is argued that this skill at predicting jet intensity originates from the slow, predictable variability in sea surface temperatures in the sub-polar North Atlantic.
Juan Camilo Acosta Navarro and Andrea Toreti
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 823–831, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-823-2023, 2023
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Droughts and heatwaves have become some of the clearest manifestations of a changing climate. Near-term adaptation strategies can benefit from seasonal predictions, but these predictions still have limitations. We found that an intrinsic property of multi-system forecasts can serve to better anticipate extreme high-temperature and low-precipitation events during boreal summer in several regions of the Northern Hemisphere with different levels of predictability.
Mark J. Rodwell and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 591–615, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-591-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-591-2023, 2023
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Midlatitude storms and their downstream impacts have a major impact on society, yet their prediction is especially prone to uncertainty. While this can never be fully eliminated, we find that the initial rate of growth of uncertainty varies for a range of forecast models. Examination of the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suggests ways in which uncertainty growth could be reduced, leading to sharper and more reliable forecasts over the first few days.
Raphaël de Fondeville, Zheng Wu, Enikő Székely, Guillaume Obozinski, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 287–307, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-287-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-287-2023, 2023
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We propose a fully data-driven, interpretable, and computationally scalable framework to characterize sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), extract statistically significant precursors, and produce machine learning (ML) forecasts. By successfully leveraging the long-lasting impact of SSWs, the ML predictions outperform sub-seasonal numerical forecasts for lead times beyond 25 d. Post-processing numerical predictions using their ML counterparts yields a performance increase of up to 20 %.
Wolfgang Wicker, Inna Polichtchouk, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 81–93, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-81-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-81-2023, 2023
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Sudden stratospheric warmings are extreme weather events where the winter polar stratosphere warms by about 25 K. An improved representation of small-scale gravity waves in sub-seasonal prediction models can reduce forecast errors since their impact on the large-scale circulation is predictable multiple weeks ahead. After a sudden stratospheric warming, vertically propagating gravity waves break at a lower altitude than usual, which strengthens the long-lasting positive temperature anomalies.
Takumi Matsunobu, Christian Keil, and Christian Barthlott
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1273–1289, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1273-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1273-2022, 2022
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This study quantifies the impact of poorly constrained parameters used to represent aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions on precipitation and cloud forecasts associated with uncertainties in input atmospheric states. Uncertainties in these parameters have a non-negligible impact on daily precipitation amount and largely change the amount of cloud. The comparison between different weather situations reveals that the impact becomes more important when convection is triggered by local effects.
Melissa L. Breeden, John R. Albers, and Andrew Hoell
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1183–1197, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1183-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1183-2022, 2022
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We use a statistical dynamical model to generate precipitation forecasts for lead times of 2–6 weeks over southwest Asia, which are needed to support humanitarian food distribution. The model signal-to-noise ratio is used to identify a smaller subset of forecasts with particularly high skill, so-called subseasonal forecasts of opportunity (SFOs). Precipitation SFOs are often related to slowly evolving tropical phenomena, namely the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Madden–Julian Oscillation.
Michael K. Tippett, Chiara Lepore, and Michelle L. L’Heureux
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1063–1075, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1063-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1063-2022, 2022
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The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) are phenomena that affect the weather and climate of North America. Although ENSO hails from from the tropical Pacific and the AO high above the North Pole, the spatial patterns of their influence on a North American tornado environment index are remarkably similar in computer models. We find that when ENSO and the AO act in concert, their impact is large, and when they oppose each other, their impact is small.
Rachel Wai-Ying Wu, Zheng Wu, and Daniela I.V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 755–776, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-755-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-755-2022, 2022
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Accurate predictions of the stratospheric polar vortex can enhance surface weather predictability. Stratospheric events themselves are less predictable, with strong inter-event differences. We assess the predictability of stratospheric acceleration and deceleration events in a sub-seasonal prediction system, finding that the predictability of events is largely dependent on event magnitude, while extreme drivers of deceleration events are not fully represented in the model.
Martin Wegmann, Yvan Orsolini, Antje Weisheimer, Bart van den Hurk, and Gerrit Lohmann
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1245–1261, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1245-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1245-2021, 2021
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Northern Hemisphere winter weather is influenced by the strength of westerly winds 30 km above the surface, the so-called polar vortex. Eurasian autumn snow cover is thought to modulate the polar vortex. So far, however, the modeled influence of snow on the polar vortex did not fit the observed influence. By analyzing a model experiment for the time span of 110 years, we could show that the causality of this impact is indeed sound and snow cover can weaken the polar vortex.
Cameron Bertossa, Peter Hitchcock, Arthur DeGaetano, and Riwal Plougonven
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1209–1224, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1209-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1209-2021, 2021
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While the assumption of Gaussianity leads to many simplifications, ensemble forecasts often exhibit non-Gaussian distributions. This work has systematically identified the presence of a specific case of
non-Gaussianity, bimodality. It has been found that bimodality occurs in a large portion of global 2 m temperature forecasts. This has drastic implications on forecast skill as the minimum probability in a bimodal distribution often lies at the maximum probability of a Gaussian distribution.
Constantin Ardilouze, Damien Specq, Lauriane Batté, and Christophe Cassou
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1033–1049, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1033-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1033-2021, 2021
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Forecasting temperature patterns beyond 2 weeks is very challenging, although occasionally, forecasts show more skill over Europe. Our study indicates that the level of skill varies concurrently for two distinct forecast systems. It also shows that higher skill occurs when forecasts are issued during specific patterns of atmospheric circulation that tend to be particularly persistent.
These results could help forecasters estimate a priori how trustworthy extended-range forecasts will be.
Cedric G. Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, Mathieu Vrac, Philippe Peyrillé, and Cyrille Flamant
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 893–912, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-893-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-893-2021, 2021
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This work assesses the forecast of the temperature over the Sahara, a key driver of the West African Monsoon, at a seasonal timescale. The seasonal models are able to reproduce the climatological state and some characteristics of the temperature during the rainy season in the Sahel. But, because of errors in the timing, the forecast skill scores are significant only for the first 4 weeks.
Zheng Wu, Bernat Jiménez-Esteve, Raphaël de Fondeville, Enikő Székely, Guillaume Obozinski, William T. Ball, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 841–865, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-841-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-841-2021, 2021
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We use an advanced statistical approach to investigate the dynamics of the development of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events in the winter Northern Hemisphere. We identify distinct signals that are representative of these events and their event type at lead times beyond currently predictable lead times. The results can be viewed as a promising step towards improving the predictability of SSWs in the future by using more advanced statistical methods in operational forecasting systems.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, Samiro Khodayar, and Peter Knippertz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 561–580, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-561-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-561-2021, 2021
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The prediction capabilities of GPS, operational (low-resolution) and targeted (high-resolution) radiosondes for data assimilation in a Mediterranean heavy precipitation event at different model resolutions are investigated. The results show that even if GPS provides accurate observations, their lack of vertical information hampers the improvement, demonstrating the need for assimilating radiosondes, where the location and timing of release was more determinant than the vertical resolution.
Joel Lisonbee and Joachim Ribbe
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 489–506, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-489-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-489-2021, 2021
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Why do some monsoon seasons start early, while others start late? For the Australian monsoon, some previous research suggested the El Niño–Southern Oscillation in the months before the onset influenced the monsoon timing. This research tests if this is still correct and if other large-scale climate patterns also influenced onset timing. We found that a strong La Niña pattern usually coincided with an early onset but weak La Niña and El Niño patterns did not show a consistent pattern.
John R. Albers, Amy H. Butler, Melissa L. Breeden, Andrew O. Langford, and George N. Kiladis
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 433–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-433-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-433-2021, 2021
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Weather variability controls the transport of ozone from the stratosphere to the Earth’s surface and water vapor from oceanic source regions to continental land masses. Forecasting these types of transport has high societal value because of the negative impacts of ozone on human health and the role of water vapor in governing precipitation variability. We use upper-level wind forecasts to assess the potential for predicting ozone and water vapor transport 3–6 weeks ahead of time.
Lesetja E. Lekoloane, Mary-Jane M. Bopape, Tshifhiwa Gift Rambuwani, Thando Ndarana, Stephanie Landman, Puseletso Mofokeng, Morne Gijben, and Ngwako Mohale
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 373–393, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-373-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-373-2021, 2021
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We analysed a tornadic supercell that tracked through the northern Highveld region of South Africa for 7 h. We found that atmospheric conditions were conducive for tornado-associated severe storms over the region. A 4.4 km resolution model run by the South African Weather Service was able to predict this supercell, including its timing. However, it underestimated its severity due to underestimations of other important factors necessary for real-world development of these kinds of storms.
Raphael Portmann, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 597–615, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-597-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-597-2020, 2020
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In September 2018 an intense Mediterranean cyclone with structural similarities to a hurricane, a so-called medicane, caused severe damage in Greece. Its development was uncertain, even just a few days in advance. The reason for this was uncertainties in the jet stream over the North Atlantic 3 d prior to cyclogenesis that propagated into the Mediterranean. They led to an uncertain position of the upper-level disturbance and, as a result, of the position and thermal structure of the cyclone.
Peter Pfleiderer, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Tobias Geiger, and Marlene Kretschmer
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 313–324, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-313-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-313-2020, 2020
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Seasonal outlooks of Atlantic hurricane activity are required to enable risk reduction measures and disaster preparedness. Many seasonal forecasts are based on a selection of climate signals from which a statistical model is constructed. The crucial step in this approach is to select the most relevant predictors without overfitting. Here we show that causal effect networks can be used to identify the most robust predictors. Based on these predictors we construct a competitive forecast model.
Kirsten J. Mayer and Elizabeth A. Barnes
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 247–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-247-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-247-2020, 2020
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Tropical storms are key for harnessing midlatitude weather prediction skill 2–8 weeks into the future. Recently, stratospheric activity was shown to impact tropical storminess and thus may also be important for midlatitude prediction skill on these timescales. This work analyzes two forecast systems to assess whether they capture this additional skill. We find there is enhanced prediction out through week 4 when both the tropical and stratospheric phenomena are active.
Christian Barthlott and Andrew I. Barrett
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 207–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-207-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-207-2020, 2020
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The mesoscale convective system (MCS) that affected Germany at Pentecost 2014 was one of the most severe for decades. However, the predictability of this system was very low. By moving the model domain by just one grid point changed whether the MCS was successfully simulated or not. The decisive factor seems to be small differences in the initial track of the convection: cooler air near the coast inhibited development there, but tracks slightly more inland found more favorable conditions.
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Short summary
We evaluate convection-permitting modelling (CPM) simulations for the greater Alpine area to assess its added value compared to a 25 km resolution. A new method for severe precipitation detection is used, and the associated synoptic weather types are considered. Our results document the added value of CPM for precipitation representation with higher intensities, better rank correlation, better hit rates, and an improved amount and structure, but with an overestimation of the rates.
We evaluate convection-permitting modelling (CPM) simulations for the greater Alpine area to...
