Weather and Climate Dynamics
Weather and Climate Dynamics
Weather and Climate Dynamics
Articles | Volume 1, issue 1
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 247–259, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-247-2020
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 247–259, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-247-2020

Research article 07 May 2020

Research article | 07 May 2020

Subseasonal midlatitude prediction skill following Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and Madden–Julian Oscillation activity

Kirsten J. Mayer and Elizabeth A. Barnes

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Cited articles

Abhik, S. and Hendon, H. H.: Influence of the QBO on the MJO during coupled model multiweek forecasts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 9213–9221, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083152, 2019. a, b
Adames, Á. F. and Kim, D.: The MJO as a Dispersive, Convectively Coupled Moisture Wave: Theory and Observations, J. Atmos. Sci., 73, 913–941, 2016. a
Baggett, C. F., Barnes, E. A., Maloney, E. D., and Mundhenk, B. D.: Advancing atmospheric river forecasts into subseasonal-to-seasonal time scales, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 7528—7536, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074434, 2017. a, b, c, d, e, f, g
Baldwin, M. P. and Dunkerton, T. J.: Stratospheric harbingers of anomalous weather regimes, Science, 294, 581–584, 2001. a
Boer, G. J. and Hamilton, K.: QBO influence on extratropical predictive skill, Clim. Dynam., 31, 987–1000, 2008. a
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Short summary
Tropical storms are key for harnessing midlatitude weather prediction skill 2–8 weeks into the future. Recently, stratospheric activity was shown to impact tropical storminess and thus may also be important for midlatitude prediction skill on these timescales. This work analyzes two forecast systems to assess whether they capture this additional skill. We find there is enhanced prediction out through week 4 when both the tropical and stratospheric phenomena are active.