Articles | Volume 1, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-389-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-389-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
14 Aug 2020
Research article |
| 14 Aug 2020
| 14 Aug 2020
Abrupt transitions in an atmospheric single-column model with weak temperature gradient approximation
UWM Department of Mathematical Sciences, 3200 N Cramer St., Milwaukee, WI 53211, USA
University of Texas Department of Physics, 2515 Speedway, C1600, Austin, TX 78712, USA
University of Texas Institute for Geophysics, 10601 Exploration Way, Austin, TX 78758, USA
Charles S. Jackson
University of Texas Institute for Geophysics, 10601 Exploration Way, Austin, TX 78758, USA
Related authors
No articles found.
Alvaro Nosedal-Sanchez, Charles S. Jackson, and Gabriel Huerta
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2407–2414, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2407-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2407-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We have developed a new metric for climate model evaluation that quantifies the significance of modeling errors across multiple fields. Our approach dramatically reduces the amount of data that is required to evaluate field and space dependencies and increases the community's potential to make use of the extremely valuable but limited satellite observational record. Our objective is to improve the strategies that currently exist for more formal data-driven model development.
Charles S. Jackson and Gabriel Huerta
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-20, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-20, 2016
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Climate data is highly correlated which can make it difficult from a statistical perspective to quantify the significance of differences that arise between a model and observations. Here we explore a common device in Bayesian inference for assessing the statistical significance of a fit between a model and data and suggest how this approach may be applied to the calibration of a climate model.
Related subject area
Dynamical processes in the tropics, incl. tropical–extratropical interactions
Can low-resolution CMIP6 ScenarioMIP models provide insight into future European post-tropical-cyclone risk?
Non-linear intensification of monsoon low-pressure systems by the BSISO
Investigation of dynamical scenarios leading to particularly high impact of Aeolus on NWP forecasts
Dynamics of gap winds in the Great Rift Valley, Ethiopia: emphasis on strong winds at Lake Abaya
Metrics of the Hadley circulation strength and associated circulation trends
Characterising the interaction of tropical and extratropical air masses controlling East Asian summer monsoon progression using a novel frontal detection approach
Extreme Atlantic hurricane seasons made twice as likely by ocean warming
Intensity fluctuations in Hurricane Irma (2017) during a period of rapid intensification
Synoptic processes of winter precipitation in the Upper Indus Basin
Acceleration of tropical cyclones as a proxy for extratropical interactions: synoptic-scale patterns and long-term trends
Subtle influence of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) on seasonal sea surface temperature (SST) hindcast skill in the North Atlantic
Drivers of uncertainty in future projections of Madden–Julian Oscillation teleconnections
Zonal scale and temporal variability of the Asian monsoon anticyclone in an idealised numerical model
African easterly waves in an idealized general circulation model: instability and wave packet diagnostics
How Rossby wave breaking modulates the water cycle in the North Atlantic trade wind region
The effect of seasonally and spatially varying chlorophyll on Bay of Bengal surface ocean properties and the South Asian monsoon
Dominant patterns of interaction between the tropics and mid-latitudes in boreal summer: causal relationships and the role of timescales
The American monsoon system in HadGEM3 and UKESM1
Elliott Michael Sainsbury, Reinhard K. H. Schiemann, Kevin I. Hodges, Alexander J. Baker, Len C. Shaffrey, Kieran T. Bhatia, and Stella Bourdin
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1359–1379, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1359-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1359-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Post-tropical cyclones (PTCs) can bring severe weather to Europe. By tracking and identifying PTCs in five global climate models, we investigate how the frequency and intensity of PTCs may change across Europe by 2100. We find no robust change in the frequency or intensity of Europe-impacting PTCs in the future. This study indicates that large uncertainties surround future Europe-impacting PTCs and provides a framework for evaluating PTCs in future generations of climate models.
Kieran M. R. Hunt and Andrew G. Turner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1341–1358, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1341-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1341-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
More than half of India's summer monsoon rainfall arises from low-pressure systems: storms originating over the Bay of Bengal. In observation-based data, we examine how the generation and pathway of these storms are changed by the
boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation– the chief means of large-scale control on the monsoon at timescales of a few weeks. Our study offers new insights for useful prediction of these storms, important for both water resources planning and disaster early warning.
Anne Martin, Martin Weissmann, and Alexander Cress
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1150, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1150, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Global wind profiles from the Aeolus satellite mission are an important recent substitute to the Global Observing System (GOS), showing an overall positive impact on NWP forecasts. This study highlights indications of atmospheric dynamic phenomena constituting pathways for significant improvement of Aeolus for future research studies, including large-scale tropical circulation systems and the interaction of tropical cyclones undergoing an extratropical transition with the mid-latitude waveguide.
Cornelius Immanuel Weiß, Alexander Gohm, Mathias Walter Rotach, and Thomas Torora Minda
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1003–1019, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1003-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1003-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Two gap flow events in the Great Rift Valley in Ethiopia were investigated based on observations, ERA5 reanalysis data, and simulations with the numerical weather prediction model WRF. The main focus was on strong winds in the area around Lake Abaya since the winds may generate waves on the lake which help to sustain the lake's ecology. That is important in terms of food supply for the local population. The gap winds exhibit a diurnal cycle and a seasonal dependence.
Matic Pikovnik, Žiga Zaplotnik, Lina Boljka, and Nedjeljka Žagar
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 625–644, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-625-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-625-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Potential future changes in the Hadley cells (HCs), either to their strength or their meridional extent, will profoundly impact the global distribution of precipitation. Therefore, to objectively evaluate and inter-compare past and future changes in the overall HC strength between different studies, a unified metric is required. The study proposes two new metrics, which alleviate the spatial inhomogeneities of the HC strength trend.
Ambrogio Volonté, Andrew G. Turner, Reinhard Schiemann, Pier Luigi Vidale, and Nicholas P. Klingaman
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 575–599, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-575-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-575-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we analyse the complex seasonal evolution of the East Asian summer monsoon. Using reanalysis data, we show the importance of the interaction between tropical and extratropical air masses converging at the monsoon front, particularly during its northward progression. The upper-level flow pattern (e.g. the westerly jet) controls the balance between the airstreams and thus the associated rainfall. This framework provides a basis for studies of extreme events and climate variability.
Peter Pfleiderer, Shruti Nath, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 471–482, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-471-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-471-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones are amongst the most dangerous weather events. Here we develop an empirical model that allows us to estimate the number and strengths of tropical cyclones for given atmospheric conditions and sea surface temperatures. An application of the model shows that atmospheric circulation is the dominant factor for seasonal tropical cyclone activity. However, warming sea surface temperatures have doubled the likelihood of extremely active hurricane seasons in the past decades.
William Stanley Torgerson, Juliane Schwendike, Andrew Ross, and Chris Short
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-81, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-81, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for WCD
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated intensity fluctuations that occurred during the rapid intensification of Hurricane Irma (2017) to understand their cause and effects on the storm structure. Using high resolution model simulations, we found that the fluctuations were caused by local regions of strong ascent just outside the eyewall that disrupted the storm leading to a larger and more symmetrical storm eye. This alters the location and intensity of the strongest winds in the storm and hence the storm's impact.
Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Michael Herzog, and Cameron A. Petrie
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1187–1207, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1187-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1187-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Western disturbances are mid-latitude, high-altitude, low-pressure areas that bring orographic precipitation into the Upper Indus Basin. Using statistical tools, we show that the interaction between western disturbances and relief explains the near-surface, cross-barrier wind activity. We also reveal the existence of a moisture pathway from the nearby seas. Overall, we offer a conceptual framework for western-disturbance activity, particularly in terms of precipitation.
Anantha Aiyyer and Terrell Wade
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1051–1072, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1051-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1051-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We diagnose the mean circulations in the extratropics that are associated with rapid changes in the tropical storm storm speeds in the Atlantic. We show that rapid acceleration and deceleration are associated with distinct phasing between the tropical cyclone and weather waves of the extratropics. Over the past 5 decades, rapid acceleration and deceleration of tropical cyclones have reduced in magnitude. This might be related to the poleward shift and weakening of these extratropical waves.
Julianna Carvalho-Oliveira, Leonard Friedrich Borchert, Aurélie Duchez, Mikhail Dobrynin, and Johanna Baehr
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 739–757, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-739-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-739-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This work questions the influence of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, an important component of the climate system, on the variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) a season ahead, particularly how this influence affects SST prediction credibility 2–4 months into the future. While we find this relationship is relevant for assessing SST predictions, it strongly depends on the time period and season we analyse and is more subtle than what is found in observations.
Andrea M. Jenney, David A. Randall, and Elizabeth A. Barnes
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 653–673, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-653-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-653-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Storm activity in the tropics is one of the key phenomena that provide weather predictability on an extended timescale of about 10–40 d. The influence of tropical storminess on places like North America is sensitive to the overall average state of the climate system. In this study, we try to unpack the reasons why climate models do not agree on how the influence of these storms on weather over the North Pacific and North America will change in the future.
Philip Rupp and Peter Haynes
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 413–431, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-413-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-413-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We study a range of dynamical aspects of the Asian monsoon anticyclone as the response of a simple numerical model to a steady imposed heating distribution with different background flow configurations. Particular focus is given on interactions between the monsoon anticyclone and active mid-latitude dynamics, which we find to have a zonally localising effect on the time-mean circulation and to be able to qualitatively alter the temporal variability of the bulk anticyclone.
Joshua White and Anantha Aiyyer
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 311–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-311-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-311-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Using a simple general circulation model, we examine the structure of waves in the mid-tropospheric jet over North Africa. We show that waves occur in near-stationary groups or wave packets. As they are not swept out of the jet, this may provide the opportunity for the packets to amplify via feedback from other energy sources like rain-producing cloud complexes and mineral dust that are known to operate here. Our results address the criticism that the easterly jet is too short to sustain waves.
Franziska Aemisegger, Raphaela Vogel, Pascal Graf, Fabienne Dahinden, Leonie Villiger, Friedhelm Jansen, Sandrine Bony, Bjorn Stevens, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 281–309, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-281-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-281-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The interaction of clouds in the trade wind region with the atmospheric flow is complex and at the heart of uncertainties associated with climate projections. In this study, a natural tracer of atmospheric circulation is used to establish a link between air originating from dry regions of the midlatitudes and the occurrence of specific cloud patterns. Two pathways involving transport within midlatitude weather systems are identified, by which air is brought into the trades within 5–10 d.
Jack Giddings, Adrian J. Matthews, Nicholas P. Klingaman, Karen J. Heywood, Manoj Joshi, and Benjamin G. M. Webber
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 635–655, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-635-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-635-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of chlorophyll on the southwest monsoon is unknown. Here, seasonally varying chlorophyll in the Bay of Bengal was imposed in a general circulation model coupled to an ocean mixed layer model. The SST increases by 0.5 °C in response to chlorophyll forcing and shallow mixed layer depths in coastal regions during the inter-monsoon. Precipitation increases significantly to 3 mm d-1 across Myanmar during June and over northeast India and Bangladesh during October, decreasing model bias.
Giorgia Di Capua, Jakob Runge, Reik V. Donner, Bart van den Hurk, Andrew G. Turner, Ramesh Vellore, Raghavan Krishnan, and Dim Coumou
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 519–539, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-519-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-519-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We study the interactions between the tropical convective activity and the mid-latitude circulation in the Northern Hemisphere during boreal summer. We identify two circumglobal wave patterns with phase shifts corresponding to the South Asian and the western North Pacific monsoon systems at an intra-seasonal timescale. These patterns show two-way interactions in a causal framework at a weekly timescale and assess how El Niño affects these interactions.
Jorge L. García-Franco, Lesley J. Gray, and Scott Osprey
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 349–371, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-349-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-349-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The American monsoon system is the main source of rainfall for the subtropical Americas and an important element of Latin American agriculture. Here we use state-of-the-art climate models from the UK Met Office in different configurations to analyse the performance of these models in the American monsoon. Resolution is found to be a key factor to improve monsoon representation, whereas integrated chemistry does not improve the simulated monsoon rainfall.
Cited articles
Bretherton, C. S. and Park, S.: A new moist turbulence parameterization in the Community Atmosphere Model, J. Climate, 22, 3422–3448, 2009. a
Bretherton, C. S. and Smolarkiewicz, P. K.: Gravity waves, compensating
subsidence and detrainment around cumulus clouds, J. Atmos. Sci., 46, 740–759, 1989. a
Brook, E. J., Sowers, T., and Orchado, J.: Rapid variations in atmospheric
methane concentration during the past 110,000 years, Science, 273, 1087–1091, 1996. a
Brook, E. J., Harder, S., Severinghaus, J., Steig, E., and Sucher, C. M.: On
the origin and timing of rapid changes in atmospheric methane during the last
glacial period, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 14, 559–572, 2000. a
Charney, J. G.: A note on large-scale motions in the tropics, J. Atmos. Sci., 20, 607–609, 1963. a
Clark, P. U., Pisias, N. G., Stocker, T. F., and Weaver, A. J.: The role of the thermohaline circulation in abrupt climate change, Nature, 415, 863–869,
2002. a
Clement, A. C. and Peterson, L. C.: Mechanisms of abrupt climate change of the last glacial period, Rev. Geophys., 46, RG4002, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006RG000204, 2008. a
Cruz, F. W., Burns, S. J., Karmann, I., Sharp, W. D., Vuille, M., Cardoso, A. O., Ferrari, J. A., Dias, P. L. S., and Viana, O. J.: Insolation-driven
changes in atmospheric circulation over the past 116,000 years in subtropical
Brazil, Nature, 434, 63–66, 2005. a
Daleu, C. L., Plant, R. S., Woolnough, S. J., Sessions, S., Herman, M. J.,
Sobel, A., Wang, S., Kim, D., Cheng, A., Bellon, G., Peyrille, P., Ferry, F.,
Siebesma, P., and van Ulft, L.: Intercomparison of methods of coupling
between convection and large-scale circulation: 1. Comparison over uniform
surface conditions, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 7, 1576–1601, 2015. a, b
Fischer, H., Behrens, M., Bock, M., Richter, U., Schmitt, J., Loulergue, L.,
Chappellaz, J., Spahni, R., Blunier, T., Leuenberger, M., and Stocker, T. F.:
Changing boreal methane sources and constant biomass burning during the last
termination, Nature, 452, 864–867, 2008. a
Houze, R. A.: 100 Years of Research on Mesoscale Convective Systems, Meteorol. Monogr., 59, 17.1–17.54, https://doi.org/10.1175/AMSMONOGRAPHS-D-18-0001.1, 2018. a, b
Jackson, C. S., Marchal, O., Liu, Y., Lu, S., and Thompson, W. G.: A box model test of the freshwater forcing hypothesis of abrupt climate change and the physics governing ocean stability, Paleoceanography, 25, PA4222,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2010PA001936, 2010. a
Kaplan, J. O.: Wetlands at the Last Glacial Maximum: Distribution and methane emissions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 1079, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL013366, 2002. a
Kaplan, J. O., Folberth, G., and Hauglustaine, D. A.: Role of methane and
biogenic volatile organic compound sources in late glacial and Holocene
fluctuations of atmospheric methane concentrations, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 20, 864–867, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature06825, 2006. a
Morrison, H., Curry, J. A., and Khvorostyanov, V. I.: A new double-moment
microphysics parameterization for application in cloud and climate models.
Part I: Description, J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 1665–1677, 2005. a
National Research Council: Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating
Surprises, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 2013. a
Okumura, Y. M., Deser, C., Hu, A., Timmerman, A., and Xie, S.-P.: North
Pacific climate response to freshwater forcing in the Subarctic North Atlantic: oceanic and atmospheric pathways, J. Climate, 22, 1424–1445, 2009. a
Peterson, L. C., Haug, G. H., Hughen, K. A., and Röhl, U.: Rapid changes in the hydrological cycle of the tropical Atlantic during the last glacial,
Science, 290, 1947–1951, 2000. a
Sessions, S. L., Sugaya, S., Randall, D. J., and Sobel, A. H.: Multiple
equilibria in a cloud-resolving model using the weak temperature gradient
approximation, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D12110, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD013376, 2010. a, b
Skamarock, W. C., Klemp, J. B., Dudhia, J., Gill, D. O., Barker, D. M., Duda,
M. G., Huang, X.-Y., Wang, W., and Powers, J. G.: A Description of the
Advanced Research WRF Version 3, NCAR Tech. Note, NCAR, Boulder, CO, 2008. a
Sobel, A. H. and Bretherton, C. S.: Modeling tropical precipitation in a single column, J. Climate, 13, 4378–4392, 2000. a
Sobel, A. H., Bellon, G., and Bacmeister, J.: Multiple equilibria in a
single-column model of the tropical atmosphere, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L22804, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031320, 2007. a, b
Stager, J. C., Ryves, D. B., Chase, B. M., and Pausata, F. S. R.: Catastrophic drought in the Afro-Asian monsoon region during Heinrich Event 1, Science, 331, 1299–1302, 2011. a
Stephens, B. A. and Jackson, C. S.: Data for “Abrupt transitions in an
atmospheric single-column model with weak temperature gradient
approximation”, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3911758, 2020. a
Wang, S. and Sobel, A. H.: Response of convection to relative sea surface
temperature: Cloud-resolving simulations in two and three dimensions, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D11119, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015347, 2011. a, b, c
Wang, Y. J., Cheng, H., Edwards, R. L., An, Z. S., Wu, J. Y., Shen, C.-C., and Dorale, J. A.: A high-resolution absolute-dated late Pleistocene monsoon record from Hulu Cave, China, Science, 294, 2345–2348, 2001. a
Weldeab, S., Lea, D. W., Schneider, R. R., and Andersen, N.: 155,000 years of
West African Monsoon and ocean thermal evolution, Science, 316, 1303–1307,
2007. a
Wunsch, C.: Abrupt climate change: an alternative view, Quartern. Res., 65, 191–203, 2006. a
Short summary
We analyze abrupt transitions between tropical rainfall regimes in a single-column model (SCM) of the tropical atmosphere. Multiple equilibria have been observed before in SCMs, but here we analyze actual bifurcations. We attribute the transitions to a sudden loss of evaporative cooling in the lower column due to nonlinearities in microphysics. This study may have implications for atmospheric dynamics more broadly but also for understanding abrupt transitions in paleoclimate.
We analyze abrupt transitions between tropical rainfall regimes in a single-column model (SCM)...
