Articles | Volume 4, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-39-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-39-2023
Research article
 | 
10 Jan 2023
Research article |  | 10 Jan 2023

Revisiting the wintertime emergent constraint of the southern hemispheric midlatitude jet response to global warming

Philipp Breul, Paulo Ceppi, and Theodore G. Shepherd

Related authors

The importance of stratocumulus clouds for projected warming patterns and circulation changes
Philipp Breul, Paulo Ceppi, and Peer Nowack
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-221,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-221, 2025
Short summary
Relationship between southern hemispheric jet variability and forced response: the role of the stratosphere
Philipp Breul, Paulo Ceppi, and Theodore G. Shepherd
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 645–658, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-645-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-645-2022, 2022
Short summary

Related subject area

Dynamical processes in midlatitudes
Weather type reconstruction using machine learning approaches
Lucas Pfister, Lena Wilhelm, Yuri Brugnara, Noemi Imfeld, and Stefan Brönnimann
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 571–594, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-571-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-571-2025, 2025
Short summary
Temporally and zonally varying atmospheric waveguides – climatologies and connections to quasi-stationary waves
Rachel H. White and Lualawi Mareshet Admasu
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 549–570, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-549-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-549-2025, 2025
Short summary
Moisture transport axes: a unifying definition for tropical moisture exports, atmospheric rivers, and warm moist intrusions
Clemens Spensberger, Kjersti Konstali, and Thomas Spengler
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 431–446, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-431-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-431-2025, 2025
Short summary
On the movement of atmospheric blocking systems and the associated temperature responses
Jonna van Mourik, Hylke de Vries, and Michiel Baatsen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 413–429, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-413-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-413-2025, 2025
Short summary
An ERA5 climatology of synoptic-scale negative potential vorticity–jet interactions over the western North Atlantic
Alexander Lojko, Andrew C. Winters, Annika Oertel, Christiane Jablonowski, and Ashley E. Payne
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 387–411, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-387-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-387-2025, 2025
Short summary

Cited articles

Barnes, E. A. and Polvani, L.: Response of the Midlatitude Jets, and of Their Variability, to Increased Greenhouse Gases in the CMIP5 Models, J. Climate, 26, 7117–7135, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00536.1, 2013. a
Bracegirdle, T. J., Shuckburgh, E., Sallee, J.-B., Wang, Z., Meijers, A. J. S., Bruneau, N., Phillips, T., and Wilcox, L. J.: Assessment of surface winds over the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Ocean sectors of the Southern Ocean in CMIP5 models: historical bias, forcing response, and state dependence, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 547–562, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50153, 2013. a
Breul, P.: Code and Data, figshare [code and data set], https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.21816198.v1, 2023. a, b
Breul, P., Ceppi, P., and Shepherd, T. G.: Relationship between southern hemispheric jet variability and forced response: the role of the stratosphere, Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 645–658, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-645-2022, 2022. a
Codron, F.: Relations between Annular Modes and the Mean State: Southern Hemisphere Winter, J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 3328–3339, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS4012.1, 2007. a
Download
Short summary
Accurately predicting the response of the midlatitude jet stream to climate change is very important, but models show a variety of possible scenarios. Previous work identified a relationship between climatological jet latitude and future jet shift in the southern hemispheric winter. We show that the relationship does not hold in separate sectors and propose that zonal asymmetries are the ultimate cause in the zonal mean. This questions the usefulness of the relationship.
Share