Articles | Volume 5, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1103-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1103-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
10 Sep 2024
Research article |
| 10 Sep 2024
| 10 Sep 2024
The connection between North Atlantic storm track regimes and eastern Mediterranean cyclonic activity
Porter School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
Hadas Saaroni
Porter School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
Baruch Ziv
Porter School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
Department of Natural Sciences, The Open University of Israel, Ra'anana, Israel
Talia Tamarin-Brodsky
Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, MIT, Cambridge, MA, USA
Nili Harnik
Porter School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
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Emmanouil Flaounas, Leonardo Aragão, Lisa Bernini, Stavros Dafis, Benjamin Doiteau, Helena Flocas, Suzanne L. Gray, Alexia Karwat, John Kouroutzoglou, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Florian Pantillon, Claudia Pasquero, Platon Patlakas, María Ángeles Picornell, Federico Porcù, Matthew D. K. Priestley, Marco Reale, Malcolm J. Roberts, Hadas Saaroni, Dor Sandler, Enrico Scoccimarro, Michael Sprenger, and Baruch Ziv
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 639–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023, 2023
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Cyclone detection and tracking methods (CDTMs) have different approaches in defining and tracking cyclone centers. This leads to disagreements on extratropical cyclone climatologies. We present a new approach that combines tracks from individual CDTMs to produce new composite tracks. These new tracks are shown to correspond to physically meaningful systems with distinctive life stages.
Dor Sandler and Nili Harnik
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 427–443, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-427-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-427-2020, 2020
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The circumglobal teleconnection pattern (CTP) is a wavy pattern of wintertime midlatitude subseasonal flow. It is also linked to various extreme weather events. The CTP is predicted to play a prominent role in future climate. We find that for future projections, most CMIP5 models predict that the CTP will develop a
preferredphase. Our work establishes that the CTP-like climate change signature is in fact comprised of several regional effects, partly due to shifts in CTP phase distributions.
Sohan Suresan, Nili Harnik, and Rodrigo Caballero
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 789–806, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-789-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-789-2025, 2025
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This study is an exploration of how extreme winter weather events across the Northern Hemisphere are influenced by the rare merging of the Atlantic and African jets, beyond such typical factors as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We identify unique surface signals and changes in cyclone paths associated with such persistent winter jets merging over the Atlantic, offering insights into these extreme winter weather patterns.
Volkmar Wirth and Nili Harnik
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2508, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2508, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
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It has been suggested that resonant amplification of Rossby waves may be responsible for the occurrence of extreme weather. Given that the recent literature has produced some conflicting results in this regard, the current paper clarifies some fundamental aspects of Rossby wave resonance in an idealized framework.
Baruch Ziv, Uri Dayan, Lidiya Shendrik, and Elyakom Vadislavsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3267–3277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, 2024
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The train effect is related to convective cells that pass over the same place. Trains produce heavy rainfall and sometimes floods and are reported in North America during spring and summer. In Israel, 17 trains associated with Cyprus lows were identified by radar images and were found within the cold sector south of the low center and in the left flank of a maximum wind belt; they cross the Israeli coast, with a mean length of 45 km; last 1–3 h; and yield 35 mm of rainfall up to 60 mm.
Talia Tamarin-Brodsky and Nili Harnik
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 87–108, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-87-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-87-2024, 2024
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Synoptic waves in the atmosphere tend to follow a typical Rossby wave lifecycle, involving a linear growth stage followed by nonlinear and irreversible Rossby wave breaking (RWB). Here we take a new approach to study RWB events and their fundamental relation to weather systems by combining a storm-tracking technique and an RWB detection algorithm. The synoptic-scale dynamics leading to RWB is then examined by analyzing time evolution composites of cyclones and anticyclones during RWB events.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Leonardo Aragão, Lisa Bernini, Stavros Dafis, Benjamin Doiteau, Helena Flocas, Suzanne L. Gray, Alexia Karwat, John Kouroutzoglou, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Florian Pantillon, Claudia Pasquero, Platon Patlakas, María Ángeles Picornell, Federico Porcù, Matthew D. K. Priestley, Marco Reale, Malcolm J. Roberts, Hadas Saaroni, Dor Sandler, Enrico Scoccimarro, Michael Sprenger, and Baruch Ziv
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 639–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023, 2023
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Cyclone detection and tracking methods (CDTMs) have different approaches in defining and tracking cyclone centers. This leads to disagreements on extratropical cyclone climatologies. We present a new approach that combines tracks from individual CDTMs to produce new composite tracks. These new tracks are shown to correspond to physically meaningful systems with distinctive life stages.
Uri Dayan, Itamar M. Lensky, Baruch Ziv, and Pavel Khain
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1583–1597, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1583-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1583-2021, 2021
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An intense rainstorm hit the Middle East between 24 and 27 April 2018. The storm reached its peak over Israel on 26 April when a heavy flash flood took the lives of 10 people. The rainfall was comparable to the long-term annual rainfall in the southern Negev. The timing was the end of the rainy season when rain is rare and spotty. The study analyses the dynamic and thermodynamic conditions that made this rainstorm one of the latest spring severe events in the region during the last 3 decades.
Gabriele Messori, Nili Harnik, Erica Madonna, Orli Lachmy, and Davide Faranda
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 233–251, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-233-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-233-2021, 2021
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Atmospheric jets are a key component of the climate system and of our everyday lives. Indeed, they affect human activities by influencing the weather in many mid-latitude regions. However, we still lack a complete understanding of their dynamical properties. In this study, we try to relate the understanding gained in idealized computer simulations of the jets to our knowledge from observations of the real atmosphere.
Dor Sandler and Nili Harnik
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 427–443, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-427-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-427-2020, 2020
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The circumglobal teleconnection pattern (CTP) is a wavy pattern of wintertime midlatitude subseasonal flow. It is also linked to various extreme weather events. The CTP is predicted to play a prominent role in future climate. We find that for future projections, most CMIP5 models predict that the CTP will develop a
preferredphase. Our work establishes that the CTP-like climate change signature is in fact comprised of several regional effects, partly due to shifts in CTP phase distributions.
Uwe Mikolajewicz, Florian Ziemen, Guido Cioni, Martin Claussen, Klaus Fraedrich, Marvin Heidkamp, Cathy Hohenegger, Diego Jimenez de la Cuesta, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Alexander Lemburg, Thorsten Mauritsen, Katharina Meraner, Niklas Röber, Hauke Schmidt, Katharina D. Six, Irene Stemmler, Talia Tamarin-Brodsky, Alexander Winkler, Xiuhua Zhu, and Bjorn Stevens
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1191–1215, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1191-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1191-2018, 2018
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Model experiments show that changing the sense of Earth's rotation has relatively little impact on the globally and zonally averaged energy budgets but leads to large shifts in continental climates and patterns of precipitation. The retrograde world is greener as the desert area shrinks. Deep water formation shifts from the North Atlantic to the North Pacific with subsequent changes in ocean overturning. Over large areas of the Indian Ocean, cyanobacteria dominate over bulk phytoplankton.
Vered Silverman, Nili Harnik, Katja Matthes, Sandro W. Lubis, and Sebastian Wahl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6637–6659, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6637-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6637-2018, 2018
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This study provides a quantified and mechanistic understanding of the radiative effects of ozone waves on the NH stratosphere. In particular, we find these effects to influence the seasonal evolution of the midlatitude QBO signal (Holton–Tan effect), which is important for getting realistic dynamical interactions in climate models. We also provide a synoptic view on the evolution of the seasonal development of the Holton–Tan effect by looking at the life cycle of upward-propagating waves.
Sandro W. Lubis, Vered Silverman, Katja Matthes, Nili Harnik, Nour-Eddine Omrani, and Sebastian Wahl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 2437–2458, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2437-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2437-2017, 2017
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Downward wave coupling (DWC) events impact high-latitude stratospheric ozone in two ways: (1) reduced dynamical transport of ozone from low to high latitudes during individual events and (2) enhanced springtime chemical destruction of ozone via the cumulative impact of DWC events on polar stratospheric temperatures. The results presented here broaden the scope of the impact of wave–mean flow interaction on stratospheric ozone by highlighting the key role of wave reflection.
Assaf Hochman, Hadas Saaroni, Miryam Bar-Matthews, Baruch Ziv, and Pinhas Alpert
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-90, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-90, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Y. Yair, S. Shalev, Z. Erlich, A. Agrachov, E. Katz, H. Saaroni, C. Price, and B. Ziv
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 165–173, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-165-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-165-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Dynamical processes in midlatitudes
Extreme weather anomalies and surface signatures associated with merged Atlantic–African jets during northern winter
Long vs. short: understanding the dynamics of persistent summer hot spells in Europe
Environments and lifting mechanisms of cold-frontal convective cells during the warm season in Germany
Seasonal to decadal variability and persistence properties of the Euro-Atlantic jet streams characterized by complementary approaches
Minimal influence of future Arctic sea ice loss on North Atlantic jet stream morphology
Weather type reconstruction using machine learning approaches
Temporally and zonally varying atmospheric waveguides – climatologies and connections to quasi-stationary waves
Moisture transport axes: a unifying definition for tropical moisture exports, atmospheric rivers, and warm moist intrusions
On the movement of atmospheric blocking systems and the associated temperature responses
An ERA5 climatology of synoptic-scale negative potential vorticity–jet interactions over the western North Atlantic
Quantifying the spread in sudden stratospheric warming wave forcing in CMIP6
Climatology, long-term variability and trend of resolved gravity wave drag in the stratosphere revealed by ERA 5
Synoptic perspective on the conversion and maintenance of local available potential energy in extratropical cyclones
Frequency anomalies and characteristics of extratropical cyclones during extremely wet, dry, windy, and calm seasons in the extratropics
Two different perspectives on heatwaves within the Lagrangian framework
Learning predictable and informative dynamical drivers of extreme precipitation using variational autoencoders
From sea to sky: understanding the sea surface temperature impact on an atmospheric blocking event using sensitivity experiments with the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) model
Simulating record-shattering cold winters of the beginning of the 21st century in France
Detection and consequences of atmospheric deserts: insights from a case study
A global climatology of sting-jet extratropical cyclones
The impact of preceding convection on the development of Medicane Ianos and the sensitivity to sea surface temperature
The importance of diabatic processes for the dynamics of synoptic-scale extratropical weather systems – a review
The impact of synoptic storm likelihood on European subseasonal forecast uncertainty and their modulation by the stratosphere
Spatio-temporal averaging of jets obscures the reinforcement of baroclinicity by latent heating
Impact of stochastic physics on the representation of atmospheric blocking in EC-Earth3
The crucial representation of deep convection for the cyclogenesis of Medicane Ianos
A storm-relative climatology of compound hazards in Mediterranean cyclones
A new characterisation of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet using two-dimensional moment analysis
Linking compound weather extremes to Mediterranean cyclones, fronts, and airstreams
A linear assessment of barotropic Rossby wave propagation in different background flow configurations
Towards a process-oriented understanding of the impact of stochastic perturbations on the model climate
Deepening mechanisms of cut-off lows in the Southern Hemisphere and the role of jet streams: insights from eddy kinetic energy analysis
Large-scale perspective on extreme near-surface winds in the central North Atlantic
Divergent convective outflow in ICON deep-convection-permitting and parameterised deep convection simulations
Changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation over the 20th century
Life cycle dynamics of Greenland blocking from a potential vorticity perspective
Warm conveyor belt characteristics and impacts along the life cycle of extratropical cyclones: case studies and climatological analysis based on ERA5
Influence of radiosonde observations on the sharpness and altitude of the midlatitude tropopause in the ECMWF IFS
Analysing 23 years of warm-season derechos in France: a climatology and investigation of synoptic and environmental changes
A Lagrangian framework for detecting and characterizing the descent of foehn from Alpine to local scales
The upstream–downstream connection of North Atlantic and Mediterranean cyclones in semi-idealized simulations
Understanding the vertical temperature structure of recent record-shattering heatwaves
Persistent warm and cold spells in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics: regionalisation, synoptic-scale dynamics and temperature budget
Linking Gulf Stream air–sea interactions to the exceptional blocking episode in February 2019: a Lagrangian perspective
Process-based classification of Mediterranean cyclones using potential vorticity
The relation between Rossby wave-breaking events and low-level weather systems
Aquaplanet simulations with winter and summer hemispheres: model setup and circulation response to warming
Seasonally dependent increases in subweekly temperature variability over Southern Hemisphere landmasses detected in multiple reanalyses
Identification of high-wind features within extratropical cyclones using a probabilistic random forest – Part 2: Climatology over Europe
Cold wintertime air masses over Europe: where do they come from and how do they form?
Sohan Suresan, Nili Harnik, and Rodrigo Caballero
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 789–806, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-789-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-789-2025, 2025
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This study is an exploration of how extreme winter weather events across the Northern Hemisphere are influenced by the rare merging of the Atlantic and African jets, beyond such typical factors as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We identify unique surface signals and changes in cyclone paths associated with such persistent winter jets merging over the Atlantic, offering insights into these extreme winter weather patterns.
Duncan Pappert, Alexandre Tuel, Dim Coumou, Mathieu Vrac, and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 769–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-769-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-769-2025, 2025
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This study compares the dynamical structures that characterise long-lasting (persistent) and short hot spells in Western Europe. We find differences in large-scale atmospheric flow patterns during the events and particular soil moisture evolutions, which can account for the variation in event duration. There is variability in how drivers combine in individual events. Understanding persistent heat extremes can help improve their representation in models and ultimately their prediction.
George Pacey, Stephan Pfahl, and Lisa Schielicke
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 695–713, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-695-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-695-2025, 2025
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Cold fronts are often associated with areas of intense precipitation (cells) in the warm season, but the drivers and environments of cells at different locations relative to the front are not well-understood. We show that cells ahead of the surface front have the highest amount of environmental instability and moisture. Also, low-level lifting is maximised ahead of the surface front and upper-level lifting is particularly important for cell initiation behind the front.
Hugo Banderier, Alexandre Tuel, Tim Woollings, and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 715–739, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-715-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-715-2025, 2025
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The jet stream is the main feature of upper-level flow and drives the weather at the surface. It is stronger and better defined in winter and has mostly been studied in that season. However, it is very important for (extreme) weather in summer. In this work, we improve and use two existing and complementary methods to study the jet stream(s) in the Euro-Atlantic sector, with a focus on summer. We find that our methods can verify each other and agree on interesting signals and trends.
Yvonne Anderson, Jacob Perez, and Amanda C. Maycock
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 595–608, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-595-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-595-2025, 2025
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The impact of Arctic sea ice loss on the North Atlantic jet stream is debated, with some linking changes to ice loss and others to natural variability. This study uses a new method to explore how future sea ice loss will affect the jet stream. In half of the models, the jet shifts equatorward, but its speed and tilt are unchanged. Some models also exhibit more jet splitting. The results suggest that future sea ice loss is unlikely to significantly weaken the jet stream or make it more variable.
Lucas Pfister, Lena Wilhelm, Yuri Brugnara, Noemi Imfeld, and Stefan Brönnimann
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 571–594, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-571-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-571-2025, 2025
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Our work compares different machine learning approaches for creating long-term classifications of daily atmospheric circulation patterns using input data from surface meteorological observations. Our comparison reveals that a feedforward neural network performs best at this task. Using this model, we present a daily reconstruction of a commonly used weather type classification for central Europe that dates back to 1728.
Rachel H. White and Lualawi Mareshet Admasu
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 549–570, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-549-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-549-2025, 2025
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Mid-latitude atmospheric jet streams sometimes create "waveguides", which are thought to increase the chance of quasi-stationary waves – atmospheric circulation patterns that can lead to extreme weather events. We compare two methods of identifying atmospheric waveguides, finding that one method seems to be less impacted by the presence of waves and provides much stronger correlations with enhanced quasi-stationary waves, and recommend this method for future studies.
Clemens Spensberger, Kjersti Konstali, and Thomas Spengler
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 431–446, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-431-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-431-2025, 2025
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The transport of moisture from warmer and moister to colder and drier regions mainly occurs in brief and narrow bursts. In the mid-latitudes, such bursts are generally referred to as atmospheric rivers; in the Arctic they are often referred to as warm moist intrusions. We introduce a new definition to identify such bursts which is based primarily on their elongated structure. With this more general definition, we show that bursts in moisture transport occur frequently across all climate zones.
Jonna van Mourik, Hylke de Vries, and Michiel Baatsen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 413–429, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-413-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-413-2025, 2025
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Atmospheric blocking events are quasi-stationary high-pressure areas with large influences on our weather. In this study, we show the wide variety of zonal velocities possible for atmospheric blocking under the most used blocking indices. These include not only stationary blocks, but also eastward- and westward-moving blocks. These respective moving blocks are found to have different characteristics in size and location and have different impacts on our surface temperatures.
Alexander Lojko, Andrew C. Winters, Annika Oertel, Christiane Jablonowski, and Ashley E. Payne
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 387–411, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-387-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-387-2025, 2025
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Convective storms can produce intense anticyclonically rotating vortices (~10 km) defined by negative potential vorticity (NPV), which can elongate to larger scales (~1000 km). Our composite analysis shows that elongated NPV frequently occurs along the western North Atlantic tropopause, where we observed it enhancing jet stream kinematics. Elongated NPV may impinge on aviation turbulence and weather forecasting despite its small-scale origin.
Verónica Martínez-Andradas, Alvaro de la Cámara, Pablo Zurita-Gotor, François Lott, and Federico Serva
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 329–343, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-329-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-329-2025, 2025
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Global circulation model biases are present when simulating sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). These are important extreme phenomena that occur in the wintertime stratosphere, driven by the breaking of atmospheric waves. The present work shows that there is a large spread of the wave forcing during the development of SSWs in different models. In the mesosphere, gravity waves are found to force advection of the residual circulation, while planetary waves tend to decelerate the wind.
Zuzana Procházková, Radek Zajíček, and Petr Šácha
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-939, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-939, 2025
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In the presented work, we compute and analyze resolved gravity wave drag in ERA 5 reanalysis. Studying gravity waves in a realistic dataset helps us to understand them better and potentially improve climate projections. Part of our results supports a key hypothesis governing vertical distribution of parameterized gravity wave drag in climate models, however, we also provide evidence for a strong influence of horizontal wave propagation, a mechanism that is currently missing in the models.
Marc Federer, Lukas Papritz, Michael Sprenger, and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 211–230, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-211-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-211-2025, 2025
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Although extratropical cyclones in the North Atlantic are among the most impactful midlatitude weather systems, their intensification is not entirely understood. Here, we explore how individual cyclones convert available potential energy (APE) into kinetic energy and relate these conversions to the synoptic development of the cyclones. By combining potential vorticity thinking with a local APE framework, we offer a novel perspective on established concepts in dynamic meteorology.
Hanin Binder and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 151–170, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-151-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-151-2025, 2025
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This study presents a systematic analysis of frequency anomalies and characteristics of extratropical cyclones during extremely wet, dry, windy, and calm winter and summer seasons in the extratropics based on 1050 years of present-day climate simulations. We show that anomalies in cyclone frequency, intensity, and stationarity are crucial to the occurrence of many extreme seasons and that these anomaly patterns exhibit substantial regional and seasonal variability.
Amelie Mayer and Volkmar Wirth
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 131–150, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-131-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-131-2025, 2025
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Although heatwaves are among the most dangerous weather-related hazards, their underlying mechanisms are not fully understood. Here, we investigate the formation of heatwaves in an air-parcel-based framework and distinguish the contributions from horizontal transport, vertical transport, and diabatic heating. We show that the results obtained depend profoundly on whether one compares the absolute contributions of the individual terms or, instead, their anomalies relative to climatology.
Fiona Raphaela Spuler, Marlene Kretschmer, Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda, Yevgeniya Kovalchuk, and Theodore G. Shepherd
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4115, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4115, 2025
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Large-scale atmospheric dynamics modulate the occurrence of extreme events and can be leveraged to improve their predictability. In this paper, we introduce a generative machine learning method to identify dynamical drivers of a relevant impact variable in the form of targeted circulation regimes. Applying the method to study extreme precipitation over Morocco, we show that these regimes are more predictive of the impact while maintaining their own predictability and physical consistency.
Svenja Christ, Marta Wenta, Christian M. Grams, and Annika Oertel
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 17–42, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-17-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-17-2025, 2025
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The detailed representation of sea surface temperature (SST) in numerical models is important for the prediction of atmospheric blocking in the North Atlantic. Yet the underlying physical processes are not fully understood. Using SST sensitivity experiments for a case study, we identify a physical pathway through which SST in the Gulf Stream region is linked to the downstream upper-level flow evolution in the North Atlantic.
Camille Cadiou and Pascal Yiou
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1-2025, 2025
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Extreme cold winter temperatures in Europe have huge societal impacts. This study focuses on extreme cold events, such as the winter of 1963 in France, which are expected to become rarer due to climate change. We use a light and efficient rare-event algorithm to simulate a large number of extreme cold winters over France to analyse their characteristics. We find that despite fewer occurrences, their intensity remains steady. We analyse prevailing atmospheric circulation during these events.
Fiona Fix, Georg Mayr, Achim Zeileis, Isabell Stucke, and Reto Stauffer
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1545–1560, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1545-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1545-2024, 2024
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Atmospheric deserts (ADs) are air masses that are transported away from hot, dry regions. Our study introduces this new concept. ADs can suppress or boost thunderstorms and potentially contribute to the formation of heat waves, which makes them relevant for forecasting extreme events. Using a novel detection method, we follow an AD directly from North Africa to Europe for a case in June 2022, allowing us to analyse the air mass at any time and investigate how it is modified along the way.
Suzanne L. Gray, Ambrogio Volonté, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, and Ben J. Harvey
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1523–1544, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1523-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1523-2024, 2024
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Sting jets occur in some of the most damaging cyclones impacting Europe. We present the first climatology of sting-jet cyclones over the major ocean basins. Cyclones with sting-jet precursors occur over the North Atlantic, North Pacific, and Southern Oceans, with implications for wind warnings. Precursor cyclones have distinct characteristics, even in reanalyses that are too coarse to fully resolve sting jets, evidencing the climatological consequences of strong diabatic cloud processes.
Claudio Sánchez, Suzanne Gray, Ambrogio Volonté, Florian Pantillon, Ségolène Berthou, and Silvio Davolio
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1429–1455, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1429-2024, 2024
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Medicane Ianos was a very intense cyclone that led to harmful impacts over Greece. We explore what processes are important for the forecasting of Medicane Ianos, with the use of the Met Office weather model. There was a preceding precipitation event before Ianos’s birth, whose energetics generated a bubble in the tropopause. This bubble created the necessary conditions for Ianos to emerge and strengthen, and the processes are enhanced in simulations with a warmer Mediterranean Sea.
Heini Wernli and Suzanne L. Gray
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1299–1408, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1299-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1299-2024, 2024
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The science of extratropical dynamics has reached a new level where the interplay of dry dynamics with effects of latent heating in clouds and other diabatic processes is considered central to the field. This review documents how research about the role of diabatic processes evolved over more than a century; it highlights that progress relied essentially on the integration of theory, field campaigns, novel diagnostics, and numerical modelling, and it outlines avenues for future research.
Philip Rupp, Jonas Spaeth, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Dominik Büeler, Michael Sprenger, and Thomas Birner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1287–1298, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1287-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1287-2024, 2024
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We quantify the occurrence of strong synoptic storms as contributing about 20 % to the uncertainty of subseasonal geopotential height forecasts over northern Europe. We further show that North Atlantic storms are less frequent, weaker and shifted southward following sudden stratospheric warming events, leading to a reduction in northern European forecast uncertainty.
Henrik Auestad, Clemens Spensberger, Andrea Marcheggiani, Paulo Ceppi, Thomas Spengler, and Tim Woollings
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1269–1286, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1269-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1269-2024, 2024
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Latent heating due to condensation can influence atmospheric circulation by strengthening or weakening horizontal temperature contrasts. Strong temperature contrasts intensify storms and imply the existence of strong upper tropospheric winds called jets. It remains unclear whether latent heating preferentially reinforces or abates the existing jet. We show that this disagreement is attributable to how the jet is defined, confirming that latent heating reinforces the jet.
Michele Filippucci, Simona Bordoni, and Paolo Davini
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1207–1222, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1207-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1207-2024, 2024
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Atmospheric blocking is a recurring phenomenon in midlatitudes, causing winter cold spells and summer heat waves. Current models underestimate it, hindering understanding of global warming's impact on extremes. In this paper, we investigate whether stochastic parameterizations can improve blocking representation. We find that blocking frequency representation slightly deteriorates, following a change in midlatitude winds. We conclude by suggesting a direction for future model development.
Florian Pantillon, Silvio Davolio, Elenio Avolio, Carlos Calvo-Sancho, Diego Saul Carrió, Stavros Dafis, Emanuele Silvio Gentile, Juan Jesus Gonzalez-Aleman, Suzanne Gray, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Platon Patlakas, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Didier Ricard, Antonio Ricchi, Claudio Sanchez, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1187–1205, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1187-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1187-2024, 2024
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Cyclone Ianos of September 2020 was a high-impact but poorly predicted medicane (Mediterranean hurricane). A community effort of numerical modelling provides robust results to improve prediction. It is found that the representation of local thunderstorms controlled the interaction of Ianos with a jet stream at larger scales and its subsequent evolution. The results help us understand the peculiar dynamics of medicanes and provide guidance for the next generation of weather and climate models.
Raphaël Rousseau-Rizzi, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Jennifer L. Catto, Alice Portal, Yonatan Givon, and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1079–1101, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1079-2024, 2024
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We identify situations when rain and wind, rain and wave, or heat and dust hazards co-occur within Mediterranean cyclones. These hazard combinations are associated with risk to infrastructure, risk of coastal flooding and risk of respiratory issues. The presence of Mediterranean cyclones is associated with increased probability of all three hazard combinations. We identify weather configurations and cyclone structures, particularly those associated with specific co-occurrence combinations.
Jacob Perez, Amanda C. Maycock, Stephen D. Griffiths, Steven C. Hardiman, and Christine M. McKenna
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1061–1078, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1061-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1061-2024, 2024
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This study assesses existing methods for identifying the position and tilt of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet, proposing a new feature-based approach. The new method overcomes limitations of other methods, offering a more robust characterisation. Contrary to prior findings, the distribution of daily latitudes shows no distinct multi-modal structure, challenging the notion of preferred jet stream latitudes or regimes. This research enhances our understanding of North Atlantic dynamics.
Alice Portal, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Jennifer L. Catto, Yonatan Givon, and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1043–1060, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1043-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1043-2024, 2024
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Mediterranean cyclones are associated with extended rain, wind, and wave impacts. Although beneficial for regional water resources, their passage may induce extreme weather, which is especially impactful when multiple hazards combine together. Here we show how the passage of Mediterranean cyclones increases the likelihood of rain–wind and wave–wind compounding and how compound–cyclone statistics vary by region and season, depending on the presence of specific airflows around the cyclone.
Antonio Segalini, Jacopo Riboldi, Volkmar Wirth, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 997–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-997-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-997-2024, 2024
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Planetary Rossby waves are created by topography and evolve in time. In this work, an analytical solution of this classical problem is proposed under the approximation of linear wave dynamics. The theory is able to describe reasonably well the evolution of the perturbation and compares well with full nonlinear simulations. Several relevant cases with single and double zonal jets are assessed with the theoretical framework
Moritz Deinhard and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 927–942, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-927-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-927-2024, 2024
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Stochastic perturbations are an established technique to represent model uncertainties in numerical weather prediction. While such schemes are beneficial for the forecast skill, they can also change the mean state of the model. We analyse how different schemes modulate rapidly ascending airstreams and whether the changes to such weather systems are projected onto larger scales. We thereby provide a process-oriented perspective on how perturbations affect the model climate.
Henri Rossi Pinheiro, Kevin Ivan Hodges, and Manoel Alonso Gan
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 881–894, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-881-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-881-2024, 2024
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Cut-off lows (COLs) are weather systems with varied structures and lifecycles, from upper atmospheric to deep vortices. Deep, strong COLs are common around Australia and the southwestern Pacific in autumn and spring, while shallow, weak COLs occur more in summer near the Equator. Jet streams play a crucial role in COL development, with different jets influencing its depth and strength. The study also emphasizes the need for better representation of diabatic processes in reanalysis data.
Aleksa Stanković, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Rodrigo Caballero
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 821–837, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024, 2024
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The article studies extreme winds near the surface over the North Atlantic Ocean. These winds are caused by storms that pass through this region. The strongest storms that have occurred in the winters from 1950–2020 are studied in detail and compared to weaker but still strong storms. The analysis shows that the storms associated with the strongest winds are preceded by another older storm that travelled through the same region and made the conditions suitable for development of extreme winds.
Edward Groot, Patrick Kuntze, Annette Miltenberger, and Holger Tost
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 779–803, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-779-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-779-2024, 2024
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Deep convective clouds (thunderstorms), which may cause severe weather, tend to coherently organise into structured cloud systems. Accurate representation of these systems in models is difficult due to their complex dynamics and, in numerical simulations, the dependence of their dynamics on resolution. Here, the effect of convective organisation and geometry on their outflow winds (altitudes of 7–14 km) is investigated. Representation of their dynamics and outflows improves at higher resolution.
Stephen Outten and Richard Davy
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 753–762, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-753-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-753-2024, 2024
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The North Atlantic Oscillation is linked to wintertime weather events over Europe. One feature often overlooked is how much the climate variability explained by the NAO has changed over time. We show that there has been a considerable increase in the percentage variance explained by the NAO over the 20th century and that this is not reproduced by 50 CMIP6 climate models, which are generally biased too high. This has implications for projections and prediction of weather events in the region.
Seraphine Hauser, Franziska Teubler, Michael Riemer, Peter Knippertz, and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 633–658, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-633-2024, 2024
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Blocking over Greenland has substantial impacts on the weather and climate in mid- and high latitudes. This study applies a quasi-Lagrangian thinking on the dynamics of Greenland blocking and reveals two pathways of anticyclonic anomalies linked to the block. Moist processes were found to play a dominant role in the formation and maintenance of blocking. This emphasizes the necessity of the correct representation of moist processes in weather and climate models to realistically depict blocking.
Katharina Heitmann, Michael Sprenger, Hanin Binder, Heini Wernli, and Hanna Joos
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 537–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-537-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-537-2024, 2024
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Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are coherently ascending air streams that occur in extratropical cyclones where they form precipitation and often affect the large-scale flow. We quantified the key characteristics and impacts of WCBs and linked them to different phases in the cyclone life cycle and to different WCB branches. A climatology of these metrics revealed that WCBs are most intense during cyclone intensification and that the cyclonic and anticyclonic WCB branches show distinct differences.
Konstantin Krüger, Andreas Schäfler, Martin Weissmann, and George C. Craig
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 491–509, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-491-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-491-2024, 2024
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Initial conditions of current numerical weather prediction models insufficiently represent the sharp vertical gradients across the midlatitude tropopause. Observation-space data assimilation output is used to study the influence of assimilated radiosondes on the tropopause. The radiosondes reduce systematic biases of the model background and sharpen temperature and wind gradients in the analysis. Tropopause sharpness is still underestimated in the analysis, which may impact weather forecasts.
Lucas Fery and Davide Faranda
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 439–461, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-439-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-439-2024, 2024
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In this study, we analyse warm-season derechos – a type of severe convective windstorm – in France between 2000 and 2022, identifying 38 events. We compare their frequency and features with other countries. We also examine changes in the associated large-scale patterns. We find that convective instability has increased in southern Europe. However, the attribution of these changes to natural climate variability, human-induced climate change or a combination of both remains unclear.
Lukas Jansing, Lukas Papritz, and Michael Sprenger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 463–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-463-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-463-2024, 2024
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Using an innovative approach, the descent of foehn is diagnosed from a Lagrangian perspective based on 15 kilometer-scale simulations combined with online trajectories. The descent is confined to distinct hotspots in the immediate lee of local mountain peaks and chains. Two detailed case studies reveal a varying wave regime to be associated with the descent. Furthermore, additional controlling factors, such as the diurnal cycle, likewise influence the descent activity.
Alexander Scherrmann, Heini Wernli, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 419–438, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-419-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-419-2024, 2024
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We show that the formation of Mediterranean cyclones follows the presence of cyclones over the North Atlantic. The distinct regions of cyclone activity in the Mediterranean in the different seasons can be linked to the atmospheric state, in particular the position of the polar jet over the North Atlantic. With this we now better understand the processes that lead to the formation of Mediterranean cyclones. We used a novel simulation framework in which we directly show and probe this connection.
Belinda Hotz, Lukas Papritz, and Matthias Röthlisberger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 323–343, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-323-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-323-2024, 2024
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Analysing the vertical structure of temperature anomalies of recent record-breaking heatwaves reveals a complex four-dimensional interplay of anticyclone–heatwave interactions, with vertically strongly varying advective, adiabatic, and diabatic contributions to the respective temperature anomalies. The heatwaves featured bottom-heavy positive temperature anomalies, extending throughout the troposphere.
Alexandre Tuel and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 263–292, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-263-2024, 2024
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Warm and cold spells often have damaging consequences for agriculture, power demand, human health and infrastructure, especially when they occur over large areas and persist for a week or more. Here, we split the Northern Hemisphere extratropics into coherent regions where 3-week warm and cold spells in winter and summer are associated with the same large-scale circulation patterns. To understand their physical drivers, we analyse the associated circulation and temperature budget anomalies.
Marta Wenta, Christian M. Grams, Lukas Papritz, and Marc Federer
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 181–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-181-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-181-2024, 2024
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Our study links air–sea interactions over the Gulf Stream to an atmospheric block in February 2019. We found that over 23 % of air masses that were lifted into the block by cyclones interacted with the Gulf Stream. As cyclones pass over the Gulf Stream, they cause intense surface evaporation events, preconditioning the environment for the development of cyclones. This implies that air–sea interactions over the Gulf Stream affect the large-scale dynamics in the North Atlantic–European region.
Yonatan Givon, Or Hess, Emmanouil Flaounas, Jennifer Louise Catto, Michael Sprenger, and Shira Raveh-Rubin
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 133–162, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-133-2024, 2024
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A novel classification of Mediterranean cyclones is presented, enabling a separation between storms driven by different atmospheric processes. The surface impact of each cyclone class differs greatly by precipitation, winds, and temperatures, providing an invaluable tool to study the climatology of different types of Mediterranean storms and enhancing the understanding of their predictability, on both weather and climate scales.
Talia Tamarin-Brodsky and Nili Harnik
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 87–108, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-87-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-87-2024, 2024
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Synoptic waves in the atmosphere tend to follow a typical Rossby wave lifecycle, involving a linear growth stage followed by nonlinear and irreversible Rossby wave breaking (RWB). Here we take a new approach to study RWB events and their fundamental relation to weather systems by combining a storm-tracking technique and an RWB detection algorithm. The synoptic-scale dynamics leading to RWB is then examined by analyzing time evolution composites of cyclones and anticyclones during RWB events.
Sebastian Schemm and Matthias Röthlisberger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 43–63, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-43-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-43-2024, 2024
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Climate change has started to weaken atmospheric circulation during summer in the Northern Hemisphere. However, there is low agreement on the processes underlying changes in, for example, the stationarity of weather patterns or the seasonality of the jet response to warming. This study examines changes during summertime in an idealised setting and confirms some important changes in hemisphere-wide wave and jet characteristics under warming.
Patrick Martineau, Swadhin K. Behera, Masami Nonaka, Hisashi Nakamura, and Yu Kosaka
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1-2024, 2024
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The representation of subweekly near-surface temperature variability trends over the Southern Hemisphere landmasses is compared across multiple atmospheric reanalyses. It is found that there is generally a good agreement concerning the positive trends affecting South Africa and Australia in the spring, and South America in the summer. A more efficient generation of subweekly temperature variance by horizontal temperature fluxes contributes to the observed rise.
Lea Eisenstein, Benedikt Schulz, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Peter Knippertz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 981–999, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-981-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-981-2023, 2023
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Mesoscale high-wind features within extratropical cyclones can cause immense damage. In Part 1 of this work, we introduced RAMEFI (RAndom-forest-based MEsoscale wind Feature Identification), an objective, flexible identification tool for these wind features based on a probabilistic random forest. Here, we use RAMEFI to compile a climatology of the features over 19 extended winter seasons over western and central Europe, focusing on relative occurrence, affected areas and further characteristics.
Tiina Nygård, Lukas Papritz, Tuomas Naakka, and Timo Vihma
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 943–961, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-943-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-943-2023, 2023
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Despite the general warming trend, wintertime cold-air outbreaks in Europe have remained nearly as extreme and as common as decades ago. In this study, we identify six principal cold anomaly types over Europe in 1979–2020. We show the origins of various physical processes and their contributions to the formation of cold wintertime air masses.
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Short summary
The North Atlantic region serves as a source of moisture and energy for Mediterranean storms. Its impact over the Levant region remains an open question due to its smaller weather systems and their longer distance from the ocean. We find an optimal circulation pattern which allows North Atlantic influence to reach farther into the eastern Mediterranean, thus making storms stronger and rainier. This may be relevant for future Mediterranean climate, which is projected to become much drier.
The North Atlantic region serves as a source of moisture and energy for Mediterranean storms....
