Articles | Volume 1, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-349-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-349-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
21 Jul 2020
Research article |
| 21 Jul 2020
| 21 Jul 2020
The American monsoon system in HadGEM3 and UKESM1
Jorge L. García-Franco
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
Lesley J. Gray
Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
Department of Physics, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Oxford, UK
Scott Osprey
Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
Department of Physics, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Oxford, UK
Related authors
Jorge L. García-Franco, Lesley J. Gray, Scott Osprey, Robin Chadwick, and Zane Martin
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 825–844, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-825-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-825-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper establishes robust links between the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and several features of tropical climate. Robust precipitation responses, as well as changes to the Walker circulation, were found to be robustly linked to the variability in the lower stratosphere associated with the QBO using a 500-year simulation of a state-of-the-art climate model.
Timothy P. Banyard, Corwin J. Wright, Scott M. Osprey, Neil P. Hindley, Gemma Halloran, Lawrence Coy, Paul A. Newman, Neal Butchart, Martina Bramberger, and M. Joan Alexander
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2465–2490, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2465-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2465-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In 2019/2020, the tropical stratospheric wind phenomenon known as the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) was disrupted for only the second time in the historical record. This was poorly forecasted, and we want to understand why. We used measurements from the first Doppler wind lidar in space, Aeolus, to observe the disruption in an unprecedented way. Our results reveal important differences between Aeolus and the ERA5 reanalysis that affect the timing of the disruption's onset and its evolution.
Jorge L. García-Franco, Lesley J. Gray, Scott Osprey, Robin Chadwick, and Zane Martin
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 825–844, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-825-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-825-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper establishes robust links between the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and several features of tropical climate. Robust precipitation responses, as well as changes to the Walker circulation, were found to be robustly linked to the variability in the lower stratosphere associated with the QBO using a 500-year simulation of a state-of-the-art climate model.
Oscar Dimdore-Miles, Lesley Gray, Scott Osprey, Jon Robson, Rowan Sutton, and Bablu Sinha
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4867–4893, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4867-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4867-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines interactions between variations in the strength of polar stratospheric winds and circulation in the North Atlantic in a climate model simulation. It finds that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) responds with oscillations to sets of consecutive Northern Hemisphere winters, which show all strong or all weak polar vortex conditions. The study also shows that a set of strong vortex winters in the 1990s contributed to the recent slowdown in the observed AMOC.
Beatriz M. Monge-Sanz, Alessio Bozzo, Nicholas Byrne, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Michail Diamantakis, Johannes Flemming, Lesley J. Gray, Robin J. Hogan, Luke Jones, Linus Magnusson, Inna Polichtchouk, Theodore G. Shepherd, Nils Wedi, and Antje Weisheimer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4277–4302, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4277-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4277-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The stratosphere is emerging as one of the keys to improve tropospheric weather and climate predictions. This study provides evidence of the role the stratospheric ozone layer plays in improving weather predictions at different timescales. Using a new ozone modelling approach suitable for high-resolution global models that provide operational forecasts from days to seasons, we find significant improvements in stratospheric meteorological fields and stratosphere–troposphere coupling.
Oscar Dimdore-Miles, Lesley Gray, and Scott Osprey
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 205–231, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-205-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-205-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Observations of the stratosphere span roughly half a century, preventing analysis of multi-decadal variability in circulation using these data. Instead, we rely on long simulations of climate models. Here, we use a model to examine variations in northern polar stratospheric winds and find they vary with a period of around 90 years. We show that this is possibly due to variations in the size of winds over the Equator. This result may improve understanding of Equator–polar stratospheric coupling.
Lesley J. Gray, James A. Anstey, Yoshio Kawatani, Hua Lu, Scott Osprey, and Verena Schenzinger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8227–8247, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8227-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8227-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A major phenomenon in the stratosphere is the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Although a feature of the equatorial stratosphere, its influence extends to surface weather at both equatorial and mid latitudes. Improved knowledge of mechanisms of influence should help to improve weather forecasts. In this paper, QBO impacts at the surface are characterized and dominant mechanisms explored. Three pathways are identified, referred to as the tropical, subtropical and polar routes.
Neal Butchart, James A. Anstey, Kevin Hamilton, Scott Osprey, Charles McLandress, Andrew C. Bushell, Yoshio Kawatani, Young-Ha Kim, Francois Lott, John Scinocca, Timothy N. Stockdale, Martin Andrews, Omar Bellprat, Peter Braesicke, Chiara Cagnazzo, Chih-Chieh Chen, Hye-Yeong Chun, Mikhail Dobrynin, Rolando R. Garcia, Javier Garcia-Serrano, Lesley J. Gray, Laura Holt, Tobias Kerzenmacher, Hiroaki Naoe, Holger Pohlmann, Jadwiga H. Richter, Adam A. Scaife, Verena Schenzinger, Federico Serva, Stefan Versick, Shingo Watanabe, Kohei Yoshida, and Seiji Yukimoto
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1009–1032, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1009-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1009-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper documents the numerical experiments to be used in phase 1 of the Stratosphere–troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi), which was set up to improve the representation of the QBO and tropical stratospheric variability in global climate models.
Verena Schenzinger, Scott Osprey, Lesley Gray, and Neal Butchart
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2157–2168, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2157-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2157-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is a pattern of winds in the equatorial stratosphere that has been observed for the past 60 years. It is thought to have long-range influences, e.g. on the Northern Hemisphere winter polar vortex and therefore Europe's winter weather. Since its period is about 2 years, being able to predict the QBO might also improve weather forecasting. Using a set of characteristic metrics, this paper examines how reliable current climate models are in simulating the QBO.
Masatomo Fujiwara, Jonathon S. Wright, Gloria L. Manney, Lesley J. Gray, James Anstey, Thomas Birner, Sean Davis, Edwin P. Gerber, V. Lynn Harvey, Michaela I. Hegglin, Cameron R. Homeyer, John A. Knox, Kirstin Krüger, Alyn Lambert, Craig S. Long, Patrick Martineau, Andrea Molod, Beatriz M. Monge-Sanz, Michelle L. Santee, Susann Tegtmeier, Simon Chabrillat, David G. H. Tan, David R. Jackson, Saroja Polavarapu, Gilbert P. Compo, Rossana Dragani, Wesley Ebisuzaki, Yayoi Harada, Chiaki Kobayashi, Will McCarty, Kazutoshi Onogi, Steven Pawson, Adrian Simmons, Krzysztof Wargan, Jeffrey S. Whitaker, and Cheng-Zhi Zou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 1417–1452, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1417-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1417-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce the SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP), review key concepts and elements of atmospheric reanalysis systems, and summarize the technical details of and differences among 11 of these systems. This work supports scientific studies and intercomparisons of reanalysis products by collecting these background materials and technical details into a single reference. We also address several common misunderstandings and points of confusion regarding reanalyses.
C. J. Wright, S. M. Osprey, and J. C. Gille
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 8459–8477, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8459-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8459-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Data from the HIRDLS instrument are used to study the numerical variability of gravity waves. Observed distributions are dominated by long-vertical-short-horizontal-wavelength waves, with a similar spectral form at all locations. We further divide our data into subspecies by wavelength, and investigate variation in these subspecies in time and space. We show that the variations associated with particular phenomena arise due to changes in specific parts of the spectrum.
Related subject area
Dynamical processes in the tropics, incl. tropical–extratropical interactions
Increasing frequency and lengthening season of western disturbances are linked to increasing strength and delayed northward migration of the subtropical jet
Sustained intensification of the Aleutian Low induces weak tropical Pacific sea surface warming
Multi-decadal pacemaker simulations with an intermediate-complexity climate model
Replicating the Hadley cell edge and subtropical jet latitude disconnect in idealized atmospheric models
Warm conveyor belt activity over the Pacific: modulation by the Madden–Julian Oscillation and impact on tropical–extratropical teleconnections
Using regional relaxation experiments to understand the development of errors in the Asian Summer Monsoon
Understanding the dependence of mean precipitation on convective treatment and horizontal resolution in tropical aquachannel experiments
Identifying quasi-periodic variability using multivariate empirical mode decomposition: a case of the tropical Pacific
Examining the dynamics of a Borneo vortex using a balance approximation tool
Development of Indian summer monsoon precipitation biases in two seasonal forecasting systems and their response to large-scale drivers
Strengthening gradients in the tropical west Pacific connect to European summer temperatures on sub-seasonal timescales
WCD Ideas: Teleconnections through weather rather than stationary waves
Quantifying uncertainty in simulations of the West African Monsoon with the use of surrogate models
Classification of large-scale environments that drive the formation of mesoscale convective systems over southern West Africa
Validation of boreal summer tropical–extratropical causal links in seasonal forecasts
Large uncertainty in observed estimates of tropical width from the meridional stream function
The impact of the Agulhas Current system on precipitation in southern Africa in regional climate simulations covering the recent past and future
Intensity fluctuations in Hurricane Irma (2017) during a period of rapid intensification
Investigation of links between dynamical scenarios and particularly high impact of Aeolus on numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts
Can low-resolution CMIP6 ScenarioMIP models provide insight into future European post-tropical-cyclone risk?
Non-linear intensification of monsoon low-pressure systems by the BSISO
Dynamics of gap winds in the Great Rift Valley, Ethiopia: emphasis on strong winds at Lake Abaya
Metrics of the Hadley circulation strength and associated circulation trends
Characterising the interaction of tropical and extratropical air masses controlling East Asian summer monsoon progression using a novel frontal detection approach
Extreme Atlantic hurricane seasons made twice as likely by ocean warming
Synoptic processes of winter precipitation in the Upper Indus Basin
Acceleration of tropical cyclones as a proxy for extratropical interactions: synoptic-scale patterns and long-term trends
Subtle influence of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) on seasonal sea surface temperature (SST) hindcast skill in the North Atlantic
Drivers of uncertainty in future projections of Madden–Julian Oscillation teleconnections
Zonal scale and temporal variability of the Asian monsoon anticyclone in an idealised numerical model
African easterly waves in an idealized general circulation model: instability and wave packet diagnostics
How Rossby wave breaking modulates the water cycle in the North Atlantic trade wind region
The effect of seasonally and spatially varying chlorophyll on Bay of Bengal surface ocean properties and the South Asian monsoon
Dominant patterns of interaction between the tropics and mid-latitudes in boreal summer: causal relationships and the role of timescales
Abrupt transitions in an atmospheric single-column model with weak temperature gradient approximation
Kieran M. R. Hunt
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 345–356, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-345-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-345-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates changes in weather systems that bring winter precipitation to south Asia. We find that these systems, known as western disturbances, are occurring more frequently and lasting longer into the summer months. This shift is leading to devastating floods, as happened recently in north India. By analysing 70 years of weather data, we trace this change to shifts in major air currents known as the subtropical jet. Due to climate change, such events are becoming more frequent.
William J. Dow, Christine M. McKenna, Manoj M. Joshi, Adam T. Blaker, Richard Rigby, and Amanda C. Maycock
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 357–367, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-357-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-357-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Changes to sea surface temperatures in the extratropical North Pacific are driven partly by patterns of local atmospheric circulation, such as the Aleutian Low. We show that an intensification of the Aleutian Low could contribute to small changes in temperatures across the equatorial Pacific via the initiation of two mechanisms. The effect, although significant, is unlikely to explain fully the recently observed multi-year shift of a pattern of climate variability across the wider Pacific.
Franco Molteni, Fred Kucharski, and Riccardo Farneti
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 293–322, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-293-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-293-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We describe some new features of an intermediate-complexity coupled model, including a three-layer thermodynamic ocean model suitable to explore the extratropical response to tropical ocean variability. We present results on the model climatology and show that important features of interdecadal and interannual variability are realistically simulated in a
pacemakercoupled ensemble of 70-year runs, where portions of the tropical Indo-Pacific are constrained to follow the observed variability.
Molly E. Menzel, Darryn W. Waugh, Zheng Wu, and Thomas Reichler
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 251–261, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-251-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-251-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recent work exploring the tropical atmospheric circulation response to climate change has revealed a disconnect in the latitudinal location of two features, the subtropical jet and the Hadley cell edge. Here, we investigate if the surprising result from coupled climate model and meteorological reanalysis output is consistent across model complexity.
Julian F. Quinting, Christian M. Grams, Edmund Kar-Man Chang, Stephan Pfahl, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 65–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-65-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-65-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Research in the last few decades has revealed that rapidly ascending airstreams in extratropical cyclones have an important effect on the evolution of downstream weather and predictability. In this study, we show that the occurrence of these airstreams over the North Pacific is modulated by tropical convection. Depending on the modulation, known atmospheric circulation patterns evolve quite differently, which may affect extended-range predictions in the Atlantic–European region.
Gill M. Martin and Jose M. Rodriguez
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-22, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-22, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using sensitivity experiments, we show that model errors developing in the Maritime Continent region contribute substantially to the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) circulation and rainfall errors through their effects on the Western North Pacific subtropical high-pressure region and the winds and sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Indian Ocean, exacerbated by local coupled feedback. Such information will inform future model developments aimed at improving model predictions for the ASM.
Hyunju Jung, Peter Knippertz, Yvonne Ruckstuhl, Robert Redl, Tijana Janjic, and Corinna Hoose
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 1111–1134, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1111-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1111-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A narrow rainfall belt in the tropics is an important feature for large-scale circulations and the global water cycle. The accurate simulation of this rainfall feature has been a long-standing problem, with the reasons behind that unclear. We present a novel diagnostic tool that allows us to disentangle processes important for rainfall, which changes due to modifications in model. Using our diagnostic tool, one can potentially identify sources of uncertainty in weather and climate models.
Lina Boljka, Nour-Eddine Omrani, and Noel S. Keenlyside
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 1087–1109, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1087-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1087-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines quasi-periodic variability in the tropical Pacific on interannual timescales and related physics using a recently developed time series analysis tool. We find that wind stress in the west Pacific and recharge–discharge of ocean heat content are likely related to each other on ~1.5–4.5-year timescales (but not on others) and dominate variability in sea surface temperatures on those timescales. This may have further implications for climate models and long-term prediction.
Sam Hardy, John Methven, Juliane Schwendike, Ben Harvey, and Mike Cullen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 1019–1043, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1019-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1019-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We examine a Borneo vortex case using computer simulations and satellite observations. The vortex is identified with high humidity through the atmosphere and has heaviest rainfall on its northern flank. Simulations represent circulation and rainfall accumulation well. The low-level Borneo vortex is coupled with a higher-level wave, which moves westwards along a layer with a sharp vertical gradient in moisture. Vortex growth occurs through mechanisms usually considered outside the tropics.
Richard J. Keane, Ankur Srivastava, and Gill M. Martin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2653, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2653, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work evaluates the performance of two widely used models in forecasting the Indian summer monsoon, which is one of the most challenging meteorological phenomena to simulate. The work links previous studies evaluating use of the models in weather forecasting and climate simulation, as the focus here is on seasonal forecasting, which involves intermediate time scales. As well as being important in itself, this evaluation provides insights into how errors develop in the two modelling systems.
Chiem van Straaten, Dim Coumou, Kirien Whan, Bart van den Hurk, and Maurice Schmeits
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 887–903, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-887-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-887-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Variability in the tropics can influence weather over Europe. This study evaluates a summertime connection between the two. It shows that strongly opposing west Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies have occurred more frequently since 1980, likely due to a combination of long-term warming in the west Pacific and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Three to six weeks later, the distribution of hot and cold airmasses over Europe is affected.
Clemens Spensberger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2353, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2353, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
It is well-established that variations in convection in the tropical Indo-Pacific can influence weather in far-away regions. In this idea, I argue that the main theory used to explain this influence over large distances is incomplete. I propose hypotheses that could lead the way towards a more fundamental explanation, and outline a novel approach that could be used to test the hypotheses I raise. The suggested approach might be useful to address also other long-standing questions.
Matthias Fischer, Peter Knippertz, Roderick van der Linden, Alexander Lemburg, Gregor Pante, Carsten Proppe, and John H. Marsham
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1922, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1922, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Simulating the West African monsoon (WAM) system suffers from large uncertainties. Using surrogate models, the influence of relevant model parameters on several characteristics of the WAM, including jet streams, is investigated. The entrainment rate and the terminal fall velocity of ice show the strongest effects, mainly on cloud cover and precipitation. These parameters should be specified more accurately to reduce the uncertainties in WAM simulations further.
Francis Nkrumah, Cornelia Klein, Kwesi Akumenyi Quagraine, Rebecca Berkoh-Oforiwaa, Nana Ama Browne Klutse, Patrick Essien, Gandomè Mayeul Leger Davy Quenum, and Hubert Azoda Koffi
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 773–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-773-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-773-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
It is not yet clear which variations in broader atmospheric conditions of the West African monsoon may lead to mesoscale convective system (MCS) occurrences in southern West Africa (SWA). In this study, we identified nine different weather patterns and categorized them as dry-, transition-, or monsoon-season types using a method called self-organizing maps (SOMs). It was revealed that a warmer Sahel region can create favourable conditions for MCS formation in SWA.
Giorgia Di Capua, Dim Coumou, Bart van den Hurk, Antje Weisheimer, Andrew G. Turner, and Reik V. Donner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 701–723, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-701-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-701-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy rainfall in tropical regions interacts with mid-latitude circulation patterns, and this interaction can explain weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere during summer. In this analysis we detect these tropical–extratropical interaction pattern both in observational datasets and data obtained by atmospheric models and assess how well atmospheric models can reproduce the observed patterns. We find a good agreement although these relationships are weaker in model data.
Daniel Baldassare, Thomas Reichler, Piret Plink-Björklund, and Jacob Slawson
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 531–541, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-531-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-531-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using ensemble members from the ERA5 reanalysis, the most widely used method for estimating tropical-width trends, the meridional stream function, was found to have large error, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere and in the summer, because of weak gradients at the tropical edge and poor data quality. Another method, using the latitude where the surface wind switches from westerly to easterly, was found to have lower error due to better-observed data.
Nele Tim, Eduardo Zorita, Birgit Hünicke, and Ioana Ivanciu
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 381–397, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-381-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-381-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
As stated by the IPCC, southern Africa is one of the two land regions that are projected to suffer from the strongest precipitation reductions in the future. Simulated drying in this region is linked to the adjacent oceans, and prevailing winds as warm and moist air masses are transported towards the continent. Precipitation trends in past and future climate can be partly attributed to the strength of the Agulhas Current system, the current along the east and south coasts of southern Africa.
William Torgerson, Juliane Schwendike, Andrew Ross, and Chris J. Short
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 331–359, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-331-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-331-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated intensity fluctuations that occurred during the rapid intensification of Hurricane Irma (2017) to understand their effects on the storm structure. Using high-resolution model simulations, we found that the fluctuations were caused by local regions of strong ascent just outside the eyewall that disrupted the storm, leading to a larger and more symmetrical storm eye. This alters the location and intensity of the strongest winds in the storm and hence the storm's impact.
Anne Martin, Martin Weissmann, and Alexander Cress
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 249–264, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-249-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-249-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Global wind profiles from the Aeolus satellite mission are an important recent substitute for the Global Observing System, showing an overall positive impact on numerical weather prediction forecasts. This study highlights atmospheric dynamic phenomena constituting pathways for significant improvement of Aeolus for future studies, including large-scale tropical circulation systems and the interaction of tropical cyclones undergoing an extratropical transition with the midlatitude waveguide.
Elliott Michael Sainsbury, Reinhard K. H. Schiemann, Kevin I. Hodges, Alexander J. Baker, Len C. Shaffrey, Kieran T. Bhatia, and Stella Bourdin
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1359–1379, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1359-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1359-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Post-tropical cyclones (PTCs) can bring severe weather to Europe. By tracking and identifying PTCs in five global climate models, we investigate how the frequency and intensity of PTCs may change across Europe by 2100. We find no robust change in the frequency or intensity of Europe-impacting PTCs in the future. This study indicates that large uncertainties surround future Europe-impacting PTCs and provides a framework for evaluating PTCs in future generations of climate models.
Kieran M. R. Hunt and Andrew G. Turner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1341–1358, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1341-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1341-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
More than half of India's summer monsoon rainfall arises from low-pressure systems: storms originating over the Bay of Bengal. In observation-based data, we examine how the generation and pathway of these storms are changed by the
boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation– the chief means of large-scale control on the monsoon at timescales of a few weeks. Our study offers new insights for useful prediction of these storms, important for both water resources planning and disaster early warning.
Cornelius Immanuel Weiß, Alexander Gohm, Mathias Walter Rotach, and Thomas Torora Minda
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1003–1019, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1003-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1003-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Two gap flow events in the Great Rift Valley in Ethiopia were investigated based on observations, ERA5 reanalysis data, and simulations with the numerical weather prediction model WRF. The main focus was on strong winds in the area around Lake Abaya since the winds may generate waves on the lake which help to sustain the lake's ecology. That is important in terms of food supply for the local population. The gap winds exhibit a diurnal cycle and a seasonal dependence.
Matic Pikovnik, Žiga Zaplotnik, Lina Boljka, and Nedjeljka Žagar
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 625–644, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-625-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-625-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Potential future changes in the Hadley cells (HCs), either to their strength or their meridional extent, will profoundly impact the global distribution of precipitation. Therefore, to objectively evaluate and inter-compare past and future changes in the overall HC strength between different studies, a unified metric is required. The study proposes two new metrics, which alleviate the spatial inhomogeneities of the HC strength trend.
Ambrogio Volonté, Andrew G. Turner, Reinhard Schiemann, Pier Luigi Vidale, and Nicholas P. Klingaman
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 575–599, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-575-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-575-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we analyse the complex seasonal evolution of the East Asian summer monsoon. Using reanalysis data, we show the importance of the interaction between tropical and extratropical air masses converging at the monsoon front, particularly during its northward progression. The upper-level flow pattern (e.g. the westerly jet) controls the balance between the airstreams and thus the associated rainfall. This framework provides a basis for studies of extreme events and climate variability.
Peter Pfleiderer, Shruti Nath, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 471–482, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-471-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-471-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones are amongst the most dangerous weather events. Here we develop an empirical model that allows us to estimate the number and strengths of tropical cyclones for given atmospheric conditions and sea surface temperatures. An application of the model shows that atmospheric circulation is the dominant factor for seasonal tropical cyclone activity. However, warming sea surface temperatures have doubled the likelihood of extremely active hurricane seasons in the past decades.
Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Michael Herzog, and Cameron A. Petrie
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1187–1207, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1187-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1187-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Western disturbances are mid-latitude, high-altitude, low-pressure areas that bring orographic precipitation into the Upper Indus Basin. Using statistical tools, we show that the interaction between western disturbances and relief explains the near-surface, cross-barrier wind activity. We also reveal the existence of a moisture pathway from the nearby seas. Overall, we offer a conceptual framework for western-disturbance activity, particularly in terms of precipitation.
Anantha Aiyyer and Terrell Wade
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1051–1072, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1051-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1051-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We diagnose the mean circulations in the extratropics that are associated with rapid changes in the tropical storm storm speeds in the Atlantic. We show that rapid acceleration and deceleration are associated with distinct phasing between the tropical cyclone and weather waves of the extratropics. Over the past 5 decades, rapid acceleration and deceleration of tropical cyclones have reduced in magnitude. This might be related to the poleward shift and weakening of these extratropical waves.
Julianna Carvalho-Oliveira, Leonard Friedrich Borchert, Aurélie Duchez, Mikhail Dobrynin, and Johanna Baehr
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 739–757, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-739-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-739-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This work questions the influence of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, an important component of the climate system, on the variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) a season ahead, particularly how this influence affects SST prediction credibility 2–4 months into the future. While we find this relationship is relevant for assessing SST predictions, it strongly depends on the time period and season we analyse and is more subtle than what is found in observations.
Andrea M. Jenney, David A. Randall, and Elizabeth A. Barnes
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 653–673, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-653-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-653-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Storm activity in the tropics is one of the key phenomena that provide weather predictability on an extended timescale of about 10–40 d. The influence of tropical storminess on places like North America is sensitive to the overall average state of the climate system. In this study, we try to unpack the reasons why climate models do not agree on how the influence of these storms on weather over the North Pacific and North America will change in the future.
Philip Rupp and Peter Haynes
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 413–431, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-413-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-413-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We study a range of dynamical aspects of the Asian monsoon anticyclone as the response of a simple numerical model to a steady imposed heating distribution with different background flow configurations. Particular focus is given on interactions between the monsoon anticyclone and active mid-latitude dynamics, which we find to have a zonally localising effect on the time-mean circulation and to be able to qualitatively alter the temporal variability of the bulk anticyclone.
Joshua White and Anantha Aiyyer
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 311–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-311-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-311-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Using a simple general circulation model, we examine the structure of waves in the mid-tropospheric jet over North Africa. We show that waves occur in near-stationary groups or wave packets. As they are not swept out of the jet, this may provide the opportunity for the packets to amplify via feedback from other energy sources like rain-producing cloud complexes and mineral dust that are known to operate here. Our results address the criticism that the easterly jet is too short to sustain waves.
Franziska Aemisegger, Raphaela Vogel, Pascal Graf, Fabienne Dahinden, Leonie Villiger, Friedhelm Jansen, Sandrine Bony, Bjorn Stevens, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 281–309, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-281-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-281-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The interaction of clouds in the trade wind region with the atmospheric flow is complex and at the heart of uncertainties associated with climate projections. In this study, a natural tracer of atmospheric circulation is used to establish a link between air originating from dry regions of the midlatitudes and the occurrence of specific cloud patterns. Two pathways involving transport within midlatitude weather systems are identified, by which air is brought into the trades within 5–10 d.
Jack Giddings, Adrian J. Matthews, Nicholas P. Klingaman, Karen J. Heywood, Manoj Joshi, and Benjamin G. M. Webber
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 635–655, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-635-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-635-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of chlorophyll on the southwest monsoon is unknown. Here, seasonally varying chlorophyll in the Bay of Bengal was imposed in a general circulation model coupled to an ocean mixed layer model. The SST increases by 0.5 °C in response to chlorophyll forcing and shallow mixed layer depths in coastal regions during the inter-monsoon. Precipitation increases significantly to 3 mm d-1 across Myanmar during June and over northeast India and Bangladesh during October, decreasing model bias.
Giorgia Di Capua, Jakob Runge, Reik V. Donner, Bart van den Hurk, Andrew G. Turner, Ramesh Vellore, Raghavan Krishnan, and Dim Coumou
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 519–539, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-519-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-519-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We study the interactions between the tropical convective activity and the mid-latitude circulation in the Northern Hemisphere during boreal summer. We identify two circumglobal wave patterns with phase shifts corresponding to the South Asian and the western North Pacific monsoon systems at an intra-seasonal timescale. These patterns show two-way interactions in a causal framework at a weekly timescale and assess how El Niño affects these interactions.
Benjamin A. Stephens and Charles S. Jackson
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 389–404, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-389-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-389-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze abrupt transitions between tropical rainfall regimes in a single-column model (SCM) of the tropical atmosphere. Multiple equilibria have been observed before in SCMs, but here we analyze actual bifurcations. We attribute the transitions to a sudden loss of evaporative cooling in the lower column due to nonlinearities in microphysics. This study may have implications for atmospheric dynamics more broadly but also for understanding abrupt transitions in paleoclimate.
Cited articles
Adams, D. K., Gutman, S. I., Holub, K. L., and Pereira, D. S.: GNSS
observations of deep convective time scales in the Amazon, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 40, 2818–2823, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50573,
2013. a
Adler, R. F., Huffman, G. J., Chang, A., Ferraro, R., Xie, P.-P., Janowiak, J.,
Rudolf, B., Schneider, U., Curtis, S., Bolvin, D., Gruber, A., Susskind, J.,
Arkin, P., and Nelkin, E.: The version-2 global precipitation climatology
project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979–present), J.
Hydrometeorol., 4, 1147–1167, 2003. a
Amador, J. A., Alfaro, E. J., Lizano, O. G., and Magaña, V. O.: Atmospheric
forcing of the eastern tropical Pacific: A review, Prog. Oceanogr.,
69, 101–142, 2006. a
Amador, J. A., Durán-Quesada, A., Rivera, E., Mora, G., Sáenz, F.,
Calderón, B., and Mora, N.: The easternmost tropical Pacific. Part II:
Seasonal and intraseasonal modes of atmospheric variability, Rev.
Biol. Trop., 64, 23–57, 2016. a
Andrews, M., Ridley, J., Wood, R., Andrews, T., Blockley, E., Booth, B., Burke,
E., Dittus, A., Florek, P., Gray, L., Haddad, S., Hardiman, S., Hermanson,
L., Hodson, D., Hogan, E., Jones, G., Knight, J., Kuhlbrodt, T., Misios, S.,
and Sutton, R.: Historical simulations with HadGEM3-GC3.1 for CMIP6, J.
Adv. Mod. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS001995,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001995, 2020. a
Andrews, T., Andrews, M. B., Bodas-Salcedo, A., Jones, G. S., Kuhlbrodt, T.,
Manners, J., Menary, M. B., Ridley, J., Ringer, M. A., Sellar, A. A., Senior,
C. A., and Tang, Y.: Forcings, feedbacks, and climate sensitivity in
HadGEM3-GC3. 1 and UKESM1, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11,
4377–4394, 2019. a, b, c
Becker, A., Finger, P., Meyer-Christoffer, A., Rudolf, B., and Ziese, M.: GPCC
full data reanalysis version 6.0 at 1.0: monthly land-surface precipitation
from rain-gauges built on GTS-based and historic data, Global Precipitation
Climatology Centre (GPCC), Berlin, Germany, 2011. a
Bellucci, A., Gualdi, S., and Navarra, A.: The double-ITCZ syndrome in coupled
general circulation models: The role of large-scale vertical circulation
regimes, J. Climate, 23, 1127–1145, 2010. a
Bombardi, R. J. and Carvalho, L. M.: The South Atlantic dipole and variations
in the characteristics of the South American Monsoon in the WCRP-CMIP3
multi-model simulations, Clim. Dynam., 36, 2091–2102, 2011. a
Cai, W., Wu, L., Lengaigne, M., Li, T., McGregor, S., Kug, J.-S., Yu, J.-Y.,
Stuecker, M. F., Santoso, A., Li, X., Ham, Y.-G., Chikamoto, Y., Ng, B.,
McPhaden, M. J., Du, Y., Dommenget, D., Jia, F., Kajtar, J. B., Keenlyside,
N., Lin, X., Luo, J.-J., Martín-Rey, M., Ruprich-Robert, Y., Wang, G.,
Xie, S.-P., Yang, Y., Kang, S. M., Choi, J.-Y., Gan, B., Kim, G.-I., Kim,
C.-E., Kim, S., Kim, J.-H., and Chang, P.: Pantropical climate interactions,
Science, 363, eaav4236, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aav4236, 2019. a, b
Cai, W., McPhaden, M., Grimm, A., Rodrigues, R., Taschetto, A., Garreaud, R.,
Dewitte, B., Poveda, G., Ham, Y.-G., Santoso, A., Ng, B., Anderson, W., Wang,
G., Geng, T., Jo, H., Marengo, J., Alves, L., Osman, M., Li, S., and Vera,
C.: Climate impacts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on South
America, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 1, 215–231, 2020. a, b, c
Carvalho, L. M., Jones, C., and Liebmann, B.: The South Atlantic convergence
zone: Intensity, form, persistence, and relationships with intraseasonal to
interannual activity and extreme rainfall, J. Climate, 17, 88–108,
2004. a
Carvalho, L. M. V., Jones, C., Posadas, A. N. D., Quiroz, R., Bookhagen, B.,
and Liebmann, B.: Precipitation characteristics of the South American Monsoon
System derived from multiple datasets, J. Climate, 25, 4600–4620,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00335.1, 2012. a
Chuvieco, E., Opazo, S., Sione, W., Valle, H. d., Anaya, J., Bella, C. D.,
Cruz, I., Manzo, L., López, G., Mari, N., González-Alonso, F., Morelli, F.,
Setzer, A., Csiszar, I., Kanpandegi, J. A., Bastarrika, A., and Libonati, R.:
Global burned-land estimation in Latin-America using MODIS composite data,
Ecol. Appl., 18, 64–79, https://doi.org/10.1890/06-2148.1,
2008. a
Colorado-Ruiz, G., Cavazos, T., Salinas, J. A., De Grau, P., and Ayala, R.:
Climate change projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5
multi-model weighted ensembles for Mexico, the North American monsoon, and
the mid-summer drought region, Int. J. Climatol., 38,
5699–5716, 2018. a, b
Dilley, M.: Synoptic controls on precipitation in the Valley of Oaxaca, Mexico,
Int. J. Climatol., 16, 1019–1031, 1996. a
Dinku, T., Ruiz, F., Connor, S. J., and Ceccato, P.: Validation and
intercomparison of satellite rainfall estimates over Colombia, J.
Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 49, 1004–1014, 2010. a
Durán-Quesada, A. M., Gimeno, L., and Amador, J.: Role of moisture transport for Central American precipitation, Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 147–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-147-2017, 2017. a, b, c
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016. a, b, c
Fisher, R. A.: Statistical methods for research workers, in: Breakthroughs in
statistics, Springer, New York, NY, 66–70, 1992. a
Franchito, S. H., Rao, V. B., Vasques, A. C., Santo, C. M., and Conforte,
J. C.: Validation of TRMM precipitation radar monthly rainfall estimates over
Brazil, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 114, D02105, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009580, 2009. a
Funk, C., Peterson, P., Landsfeld, M., Pedreros, D., Verdin, J., Shukla, S.,
Husak, G., Rowland, J., Harrison, L., Hoell, A., and Michaelsen, J.: The
climate hazards infrared precipitation with stations – a new environmental
record for monitoring extremes, Sci. Data, 2, 150066, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2015.66, 2015. a
Gamble, D. W., Parnell, D. B., and Curtis, S.: Spatial variability of the
Caribbean mid-summer drought and relation to north Atlantic high circulation,
Int. J. Climatol., 28, 343–350, 2008. a
Giannini, A., Kushnir, Y., and Cane, M. A.: Interannual variability of
Caribbean rainfall, ENSO, and the Atlantic Ocean, J. Climate, 13,
297–311, 2000. a
Harris, I., Jones, P. D., Osborn, T. J., and Lister, D. H.: Updated
high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations–the CRU TS3. 10
Dataset, Int. J. Climatol., 34, 623–642, 2014. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A.,
Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons,
A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati,
G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D.,
Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer,
A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M.,
Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P.,
Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 global
reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, online first,
2020. a
Huffman, G. J., Adler, R. F., Bolvin, D. T., and Nelkin, E. J.: The TRMM
multi-satellite precipitation analysis (TMPA), in: Satellite rainfall
applications for surface hydrology, 3–22, Springer, Dordrecht, 2010. a
Jakob, C.: Going back to basics, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 1042–1045,
2014. a
Jiménez-Esteve, B. and Domeisen, D. I. V.: Nonlinearity in the tropospheric
pathway of ENSO to the North Atlantic, Weather and Climate Dynamics, 1,
225–245, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-225-2020, 2020. a
Jones, C. and Carvalho, L. M.: Active and break phases in the South American
monsoon system, J. Climate, 15, 905–914, 2002. a
Kennedy, J., Rayner, N., Smith, R., Parker, D., and Saunby, M.: Reassessing
biases and other uncertainties in sea surface temperature observations
measured in situ since 1850: 2. Biases and homogenization, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 116, D14104, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015220, 2011. a
Kuhlbrodt, T., Jones, C. G., Sellar, A., Storkey, D., Blockley, E., Stringer,
M., Hill, R., Graham, T., Ridley, J., Blaker, A., Calvert, D., Copsey, D.,
Ellis, R., Hewitt, H., Hyder, P., Ineson, S., Mulcahy, J., Siahaan, A., and
Walton, J.: The low-resolution version of HadGEM3 GC3. 1: Development and
evaluation for global climate, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy.,
10, 2865–2888, 2018. a, b, c
Lahmers, T. M., Castro, C. L., Adams, D. K., Serra, Y. L., Brost, J. J., and
Luong, T.: Long-term changes in the climatology of transient inverted troughs
over the North American monsoon region and their effects on precipitation,
J. Climate, 29, 6037–6064, 2016. a
Lawrence, P. J., Feddema, J. J., Bonan, G. B., Meehl, G. A., O’Neill, B. C.,
Oleson, K. W., Levis, S., Lawrence, D. M., Kluzek, E., Lindsay, K., and
Thornton, P. E.: Simulating the Biogeochemical and Biogeophysical Impacts of
Transient Land Cover Change and Wood Harvest in the Community Climate System
Model (CCSM4) from 1850 to 2100, J. Climate, 25, 3071–3095,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00256.1, 2012. a
Lee, J.-E., Lintner, B. R., Boyce, C. K., and Lawrence, P. J.: Land use change
exacerbates tropical South American drought by sea surface temperature
variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L19706, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL049066, 2011. a
Li, G. and Xie, S.-P.: Tropical biases in CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: The
excessive equatorial Pacific cold tongue and double ITCZ problems, J.
Climate, 27, 1765–1780, 2014. a
Li, W., Fu, R., and Dickinson, R. E.: Rainfall and its seasonality over the
Amazon in the 21st century as assessed by the coupled models for the IPCC
AR4, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 111, D20111, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006355, 2006. a, b
Machado, L., Laurent, H., Dessay, N., and Miranda, I.: Seasonal and diurnal
variability of convection over the Amazonia: A comparison of different
vegetation types and large scale forcing, Theor. Appl.
Climatol., 78, 61–77, 2004. a
Malhi, Y., Aragão, L. E. O. C., Galbraith, D., Huntingford, C., Fisher, R.,
Zelazowski, P., Sitch, S., McSweeney, C., and Meir, P.: Exploring the
likelihood and mechanism of a climate-change-induced dieback of the Amazon
rainforest, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 106,
20610–20615, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0804619106, 2009. a
Marengo, J. A., Liebmann, B., Kousky, V. E., Filizola, N. P., and Wainer,
I. C.: Onset and end of the rainy season in the Brazilian Amazon Basin,
J. Climate, 14, 833–852, 2001. a
Marengo, J. A., Liebmann, B., Grimm, A. M., Misra, V., Silva Dias, P. L.,
Cavalcanti, I. F. A., Carvalho, L. M. V., Berbery, E. H., Ambrizzi, T., Vera,
C. S., Saulo, A. C., Nogues-Paegle, J., Zipser, E., Seth, A., and Alves,
L. M.: Recent developments on the South American monsoon system,
Int. J. Climatol., 32, 1–21, 2012. a, b, c, d, e, f, g
Marotzke, J., Jakob, C., Bony, S., Dirmeyer, P., O'Gorman, P., Hawkins, E.,
Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S., Quéré, C., Nowicki, S., Paulavets, K.,
Seneviratne, S., Stevens, B., and Tuma, M.: Climate research must sharpen its
view, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 89–91, 2017. a
Menary, M. B., Kuhlbrodt, T., Ridley, J., Andrews, M. B., Dimdore-Miles, O. B.,
Deshayes, J., Eade, R., Gray, L., Ineson, S., Mignot, J., Roberts, C. D.,
Robson, J., Wood, R. A., and Xavier, P.: Preindustrial Control Simulations
With HadGEM3-GC3. 1 for CMIP6, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy.,
10, 3049–3075, 2018. a, b
Mulcahy, J. P., Jones, C., Sellar, A., Johnson, B., Boutle, I. A., Jones, A.,
Andrews, T., Rumbold, S. T., Mollard, J., Bellouin, N., Johnson, C. E.,
Williams, K. D., Grosvenor, D. P., and McCoy, D. T.: Improved aerosol
processes and effective radiative forcing in HadGEM3 and UKESM1, J.
Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 10, 2786–2805, 2018. a, b
Nieto-Ferreira, R. and Rickenbach, T. M.: Regionality of monsoon onset in
South America: a three-stage conceptual model, Int. J.
Climatol., 31, 1309–1321, 2011. a
Ordoñez, P., Nieto, R., Gimeno, L., Ribera, P., Gallego, D., Ochoa-Moya, C. A., and Quintanar, A. I.: Climatological moisture sources for the Western North American Monsoon through a Lagrangian approach: their influence on precipitation intensity, Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 59–72, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-59-2019, 2019. a
Oueslati, B. and Bellon, G.: Convective entrainment and large-scale
organization of tropical precipitation: Sensitivity of the CNRM-CM5 hierarchy
of models, J. Climate, 26, 2931–2946, 2013. a
Palmer, T.: Stochastic weather and climate models, Nat. Rev. Phys., 1,
463–471, 2019. a
Palmer, T. and Stevens, B.: The scientific challenge of understanding and
estimating climate change, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA,
116, 24390–24395, 2019. a
Pascale, S. and Bordoni, S.: Tropical and extratropical controls of Gulf of
California surges and summertime precipitation over the southwestern United
States, Mon. Weather Rev., 144, 2695–2718, 2016. a
Pascale, S., Bordoni, S., Kapnick, S. B., Vecchi, G. A., Jia, L., Delworth,
T. L., Underwood, S., and Anderson, W.: The impact of horizontal resolution
on North American monsoon Gulf of California moisture surges in a suite of
coupled global climate models, J. Climate, 29, 7911–7936, 2016. a
Perdigón-Morales, J., Romero-Centeno, R., Ordóñez, P., and Barrett,
B. S.: The midsummer drought in Mexico: perspectives on duration and
intensity from the CHIRPS precipitation database, Int. J. Climatol., 38, 2174–2186, 2018. a
Ridley, J., Menary, M., Kuhlbrodt, T., Andrews, M., and Andrews, T.: MOHC
HadGEM3-GC31-LL model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP piControl, Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) in Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA),
https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6294, 2018.
Ridley, J., Menary, M., Kuhlbrodt, T., Andrews, M., and Andrews, T.: MOHC
HadGEM3-GC31-LL model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP amip, Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) in Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA),
https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.5853, 2019a.
Ridley, J., Menary, M., Kuhlbrodt, T., Andrews, M., and Andrews, T.: MOHC
HadGEM3-GC31-LL model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical, Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) in Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA),
https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6109, 2019b.
Ridley, J., Menary, M., Kuhlbrodt, T., Andrews, M., and Andrews, T.: MOHC
HadGEM3-GC31-MM model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP piControl, Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) in Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA),
https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6297, 2019c.
Seager, R. and Vecchi, G. A.: Greenhouse warming and the 21st century
hydroclimate of southwestern North America, P. Natl.
Acad. Sci. USA, 107, 21277–21282, 2010. a
Seastrand, S., Serra, Y., Castro, C., and Ritchie, E.: The dominant
synoptic-scale modes of North American monsoon precipitation, Int.
J. Climatol., 35, 2019–2032, 2015. a
Sellar, A. A., Jones, C. G., Mulcahy, J., Tang, Y., Yool, A., Wiltshire, A.,
O'Connor, F. M., Stringer, M., Hill, R., Palmieri, J., Woodward, S., de Mora,
L., Kuhlbrodt, T., Rumbold, S., Kelley, D. I., Ellis, R., Johnson, C. E.,
Walton, J., Abraham, N. L., Andrews, M. B., Andrews, T., Archibald, A. T.,
Berthou, S., Burke, E., Blockley, E., Carslaw, K., Dalvi, M., Edwards, J.,
Folberth, G. A., Gedney, N., Griffiths, P. T., Harper, A. B., Hendry, M. A.,
Hewitt, A. J., Johnson, B., Jones, A., Jones, C. D., Keeble, J., Liddicoat,
S., Morgenstern, O., Parker, R. J., Predoi, V., Robertson, E., Siahaan, A.,
Smith, R. S., Swaminathan, R., Woodhouse, M. T., Zeng, G., and Zerroukat, M.:
UKESM1: Description and evaluation of the UK Earth System Model, J.
Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 4513–4558, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001739,
2019. a, b, c, d
Sheffield, J., Barrett, A. P., Colle, B., Nelun Fernando, D., Fu, R., Geil,
K. L., Hu, Q., Kinter, J., Kumar, S., Langenbrunner, B., Lombardo, K., Long,
L. N., Maloney, E., Mariotti, A., Meyerson, J. E., Mo, K. C., David Neelin,
J., Nigam, S., Pan, Z., Ren, T., Ruiz-Barradas, A., Serra, Y. L., Seth, A.,
Thibeault, J. M., Stroeve, J. C., Yang, Z., and Yin, L.: North American
climate in CMIP5 experiments. Part I: Evaluation of historical simulations of
continental and regional climatology, J. Climate, 26, 9209–9245,
2013. a, b, c
Straffon, A., Zavala-Hidalgo, J., and Estrada, F.: Preconditioning of the
precipitation interannual variability in southern Mexico and Central America
by oceanic and atmospheric anomalies, Int. J. Climatol., 40, 3906–3921, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6434,
2019. a
Sulca, J., Takahashi, K., Espinoza, J.-C., Vuille, M., and Lavado-Casimiro, W.:
Impacts of different ENSO flavors and tropical Pacific convection
variability (ITCZ, SPCZ) on austral summer rainfall in South America, with a
focus on Peru, Int. J. Climatol., 38, 420–435, 2018. a
Tanaka, L. M. d. S., Satyamurty, P., and Machado, L. A. T.: Diurnal variation
of precipitation in central Amazon Basin, Int. J.
Climatol., 34, 3574–3584, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3929,
2014. a
Tang, Y., Rumbold, S., Ellis, R., Kelley, D., Mulcahy, J., Sellar, A., Walton,
J., and Jones, C.: MOHC UKESM1.0-LL model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP
historical, Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) in Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA), https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6113, 2019a.
Tang, Y., Rumbold, S., Ellis, R., Kelley, D., Mulcahy, J., Sellar, A., Walton,
J., and Jones, C.: MOHC UKESM1.0-LL model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP
piControl, Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) in Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA), https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6298, 2019b.
Trejo, F. J. P., Barbosa, H. A., Peñaloza-Murillo, M. A., Moreno, M. A.,
and Farías, A.: Intercomparison of improved satellite rainfall
estimation with CHIRPS gridded product and rain gauge data over Venezuela,
Atmósfera, 29, 323–342, 2016. a
Trenberth, K. E.: The definition of El Nino, B. Am.
Meteorol. Soc., 78, 2771–2778, 1997. a
Trenberth, K. E., Branstator, G. W., Karoly, D., Kumar, A., Lau, N.-C., and
Ropelewski, C.: Progress during TOGA in understanding and modeling global
teleconnections associated with tropical sea surface temperatures, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 103, 14291–14324, 1998. a
Turrent, C. and Cavazos, T.: Role of the land-sea thermal contrast in the
interannual modulation of the North American Monsoon, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L02808, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL036299, 2009. a
Walters, D., Baran, A. J., Boutle, I., Brooks, M., Earnshaw, P., Edwards, J., Furtado, K., Hill, P., Lock, A., Manners, J., Morcrette, C., Mulcahy, J., Sanchez, C., Smith, C., Stratton, R., Tennant, W., Tomassini, L., Van Weverberg, K., Vosper, S., Willett, M., Browse, J., Bushell, A., Carslaw, K., Dalvi, M., Essery, R., Gedney, N., Hardiman, S., Johnson, B., Johnson, C., Jones, A., Jones, C., Mann, G., Milton, S., Rumbold, H., Sellar, A., Ujiie, M., Whitall, M., Williams, K., and Zerroukat, M.: The Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 7.0/7.1 and JULES Global Land 7.0 configurations, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1909–1963, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1909-2019, 2019.
a
Wang, P. X., Wang, B., Cheng, H., Fasullo, J., Guo, Z., Kiefer, T., and Liu,
Z.: The global monsoon across time scales: Mechanisms and outstanding issues,
Earth-Sci. Rev., 174, 84–121, 2017. a
Wilks, D. S.: Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences, vol. 100,
Academic Press, San Diego, CA, USA, 2011. a
Williams, K. D., Copsey, D., Blockley, E. W., Bodas-Salcedo, A., Calvert, D.,
Comer, R., Davis, P., Graham, T., Hewitt, H. T., Hill, R., Hyder, P., Ineson,
S., Johns, T. C., Keen, A. B., Lee, R. W., Megann, A., Milton, S. F., Rae, J.
G. L., Roberts, M. J., Scaife, A. A., Schiemann, R., Storkey, D., Thorpe, L.,
Watterson, I. G., Walters, D. N., West, A., Wood, R. A., Woollings, T., and
Xavier, P. K.: The Met Office global coupled model 3.0 and 3.1 (GC3. 0 and
GC3. 1) configurations, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 10,
357–380, 2018. a
World Climate Research Programme (WCRP): Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 6), available at: https://esgf-index1.ceda.ac.uk/projects/cmip6-ceda/ (last access: 2 May 2020), 2019. a
Zhou, T., Turner, A. G., Kinter, J. L., Wang, B., Qian, Y., Chen, X., Wu, B., Wang, B., Liu, B., Zou, L., and He, B.: GMMIP (v1.0) contribution to CMIP6: Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3589–3604, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3589-2016, 2016. a, b, c
Short summary
The American monsoon system is the main source of rainfall for the subtropical Americas and an important element of Latin American agriculture. Here we use state-of-the-art climate models from the UK Met Office in different configurations to analyse the performance of these models in the American monsoon. Resolution is found to be a key factor to improve monsoon representation, whereas integrated chemistry does not improve the simulated monsoon rainfall.
The American monsoon system is the main source of rainfall for the subtropical Americas and an...
