Articles | Volume 4, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-823-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-823-2023
Research article
 | 
20 Sep 2023
Research article |  | 20 Sep 2023

Exploiting the signal-to-noise ratio in multi-system predictions of boreal summer precipitation and temperature

Juan Camilo Acosta Navarro and Andrea Toreti

Related authors

Exploring the joint probability of precipitation and soil moisture over Europe using copulas
Carmelo Cammalleri, Carlo De Michele, and Andrea Toreti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 103–115, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-103-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-103-2024, 2024
Short summary
Declining water resources in response to global warming and changes in atmospheric circulation patterns over southern Mediterranean France
Camille Labrousse, Wolfgang Ludwig, Sébastien Pinel, Mahrez Sadaoui, Andrea Toreti, and Guillaume Lacquement
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6055–6071, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6055-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6055-2022, 2022
Short summary
Analysis of the relationship between yield in cereals and remotely sensed fAPAR in the framework of monitoring drought impacts in Europe
Carmelo Cammalleri, Niall McCormick, and Andrea Toreti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3737–3750, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3737-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3737-2022, 2022
Short summary
On the use of weather regimes to forecast meteorological drought over Europe
Christophe Lavaysse, Jürgen Vogt, Andrea Toreti, Marco L. Carrera, and Florian Pappenberger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3297–3309, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3297-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3297-2018, 2018
Short summary
Towards a monitoring system of temperature extremes in Europe
Christophe Lavaysse, Carmelo Cammalleri, Alessandro Dosio, Gerard van der Schrier, Andrea Toreti, and Jürgen Vogt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 91–104, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-91-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-91-2018, 2018
Short summary

Related subject area

Atmospheric predictability
Intrinsic predictability limits arising from Indian Ocean Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) heating: effects on tropical and extratropical teleconnections
David Martin Straus, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Sarah-Jane Lock, Franco Molteni, and Priyanka Yadav
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 1001–1018, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1001-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1001-2023, 2023
Short summary
Predictable decadal forcing of the North Atlantic jet speed by sub-polar North Atlantic sea surface temperatures
Kristian Strommen, Tim Woollings, Paolo Davini, Paolo Ruggieri, and Isla R. Simpson
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 853–874, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-853-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-853-2023, 2023
Short summary
Uncertainty growth and forecast reliability during extratropical cyclogenesis
Mark J. Rodwell and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 591–615, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-591-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-591-2023, 2023
Short summary
Convection-parameterized and convection-permitting modelling of heavy precipitation in decadal simulations of the greater Alpine region with COSMO-CLM
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, Hendrik Feldmann, Etor Lucio-Eceiza, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 543–565, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-543-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-543-2023, 2023
Short summary
Improved extended-range prediction of persistent stratospheric perturbations using machine learning
Raphaël de Fondeville, Zheng Wu, Enikő Székely, Guillaume Obozinski, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 287–307, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-287-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-287-2023, 2023
Short summary

Cited articles

Baehr, J., Fröhlich, K., Botzet, M., Domeisen, D. I., Kornblueh, L., Notz, D., Piontek, R., Pohlmann, H., Tietsche, S., and Müller, W. A.: The prediction of surface temperature in the new seasonal prediction system based on the MPI-ESM coupled climate model, Clim. Dynam., 44, 2723–2735, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2399-7, 2015. 
Batté, L., Dorel, L., Ardilouze, C., and Guérémy, J.-F.: Documentation of the METEO-FRANCE seasonal forecasting system 8, Météo-France, 36, 1–36, https://www.umr-cnrm.fr/IMG/pdf/system8-technical.pdf (last access: 1 February 2023), 2021. 
Below, R., Grover-Kopec, E., and Dilley, M.: Documenting drought-related disasters, J. Environ. Dev., 16, 328–344, https://doi.org/10.1177/1070496507306222, 2007. 
Bevacqua, E., Zappa, G., Lehner, F., and Zscheischler, J.: Precipitation trends determine future occurrences of compound hot–dry events. Nat. Clim. Change, 12, 350–355, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01309-5, 2022. 
Download
Short summary
Droughts and heatwaves have become some of the clearest manifestations of a changing climate. Near-term adaptation strategies can benefit from seasonal predictions, but these predictions still have limitations. We found that an intrinsic property of multi-system forecasts can serve to better anticipate extreme high-temperature and low-precipitation events during boreal summer in several regions of the Northern Hemisphere with different levels of predictability.