Articles | Volume 5, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1137-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1137-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
23 Sep 2024
Research article |
| 23 Sep 2024
| 23 Sep 2024
Spatial and temporal variability of the freezing level in Patagonia's atmosphere
Glaciología y Cambio Climático, Centro de Estudios Científicos (CECs), Valdivia, 5090000, Chile
Claudio Bravo
Glaciología y Cambio Climático, Centro de Estudios Científicos (CECs), Valdivia, 5090000, Chile
Álvaro Gónzalez-Reyes
Instituto de Ciencias de la Tierra (ICT), Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia 5090000, Chile
Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Cambio Global, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, 5090000, Chile
Centro de Humedales Río Cruces (CEHUM), Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, 5090000, Chile
Centro de Investigación, Dinámica de Ecosistemas Marinos de Altas Latitudes (IDEAL), Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, 5090000, Chile
Piero Mardones
Centro de Investigación en Ecosistemas de la Patagonia (CIEP), Coyhaique, 5950000, Chile
Editorial note: the supplement was replaced on 31 October 2024 as values in Table S1 were erroneous. This has now been corrected.
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Claudio Bravo, Sebastián Cisternas, Maximiliano Viale, Pablo Paredes, Deniz Bozkurt, and Nicolás García-Lee
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1958, 2024
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We analysed the impact of a summer snow accumulation event, linked to an atmospheric river in Central Chile. Using observational and remote sensing data, we show that accumulation prevails in all the glaciers of the Maipo River basin and this sole event defines that the Olivares Alfa glacier mass balance was close to equilibrium, despite being a dry year. This demonstrates that an unseasonal accumulation event can counteract the seasonal trends affecting subtropical Andean glaciers
Alexis Caro, Thomas Condom, Antoine Rabatel, Nicolas Champollion, Nicolás García, and Freddy Saavedra
The Cryosphere, 18, 2487–2507, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2487-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2487-2024, 2024
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The glacier runoff changes are still unknown in most of the Andean catchments, thereby increasing uncertainties in estimating water availability, especially during the dry season. Here, we simulate glacier evolution and related glacier runoff changes across the Andes between 2000 and 2019. Our results indicate a glacier reduction in 93 % of the catchments, leading to a 12 % increase in glacier melt. These results can be downloaded and integrated with discharge measurements in each catchment.
Claudio Bravo, Sebastián Cisternas, Maximiliano Viale, Pablo Paredes, Deniz Bozkurt, and Nicolás García-Lee
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1958, 2024
Short summary
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We analysed the impact of a summer snow accumulation event, linked to an atmospheric river in Central Chile. Using observational and remote sensing data, we show that accumulation prevails in all the glaciers of the Maipo River basin and this sole event defines that the Olivares Alfa glacier mass balance was close to equilibrium, despite being a dry year. This demonstrates that an unseasonal accumulation event can counteract the seasonal trends affecting subtropical Andean glaciers
Nicolás Álamos, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Ariel Muñoz, and Álvaro González-Reyes
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2483–2503, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2483-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2483-2024, 2024
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In this study, we assess the effects of climate and water use on streamflow reductions and drought intensification during the last 3 decades in central Chile. We address this by contrasting streamflow observations with near-natural streamflow simulations. We conclude that while the lack of precipitation dominates streamflow reductions in the megadrought, water uses have not diminished during this time, causing a worsening of the hydrological drought conditions and maladaptation conditions.
Alexis Caro, Thomas Condom, Antoine Rabatel, Nicolas Champollion, Nicolás García, and Freddy Saavedra
The Cryosphere, 18, 2487–2507, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2487-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2487-2024, 2024
Short summary
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The glacier runoff changes are still unknown in most of the Andean catchments, thereby increasing uncertainties in estimating water availability, especially during the dry season. Here, we simulate glacier evolution and related glacier runoff changes across the Andes between 2000 and 2019. Our results indicate a glacier reduction in 93 % of the catchments, leading to a 12 % increase in glacier melt. These results can be downloaded and integrated with discharge measurements in each catchment.
Thomas E. Shaw, Wei Yang, Álvaro Ayala, Claudio Bravo, Chuanxi Zhao, and Francesca Pellicciotti
The Cryosphere, 15, 595–614, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-595-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-595-2021, 2021
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Near surface air temperature (Ta) is important for simulating the melting of glaciers, though its variability in space and time on mountain glaciers is still poorly understood. We combine new Ta observations on glacier in Tibet with several glacier datasets around the world to explore the applicability of an existing method to estimate glacier Ta based upon glacier flow distance. We make a first step at generalising a method and highlight the remaining unknowns for this field of research.
Álvaro González-Reyes, Claudio Bravo, Mathias Vuille, Martin Jacques-Coper, Maisa Rojas, Esteban Sagredo, and James McPhee
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2019-37, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2019-37, 2019
Publication in CP not foreseen
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The "Little Ice Age" (LIA), has long been recognized as the last period when mountain glaciers recorded extensive growth intervals. In the Mediterranean Andes (MA; 30º–37º S), the LIA has been poorly documented. Here, we performed an experiment using three GCMs to force a novel glaciological model. We simulated temporal variations of the ELA to evaluate the glacier response. We propose that Pacific SST variability was the main modulator of temporal changes of the ELA in the MA region during LIA.
Alfonso Fernández, Ariel Muñoz, Álvaro González-Reyes, Isabella Aguilera-Betti, Isadora Toledo, Paulina Puchi, David Sauchyn, Sebastián Crespo, Cristian Frene, Ignacio Mundo, Mauro González, and Raffaele Vignola
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2921–2935, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2921-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2921-2018, 2018
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Short-term river discharge records hamper assessment of the severity of modern droughts in south-central Chile, making effective water management difficult. To support decision-making, we present a ~300-year tree-ring reconstruction of summer discharge for this region. Results show that since 1980, droughts have become more frequent and are related to a shift in large-scale climate. We argue that water managers should use this long-term view to better allocate water rights.
Claudio Bravo, Thomas Loriaux, Andrés Rivera, and Ben W. Brock
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3249–3266, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3249-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3249-2017, 2017
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We present an analysis of meteorological conditions and melt for Universidad Glacier in central Chile. This glacier is characterized by high melt rates over the ablation season, representing a mean contribution of between 10 and 13 % of the total runoff observed in the upper Tinguiririca Basin during the November 2009 to March 2010 period. Few studies have quantified the glacier melt contribution to river runoff in Chile, and this work represents a new precedent for the Andes.
C. Bravo, M. Rojas, B. M. Anderson, A. N. Mackintosh, E. Sagredo, and P. I. Moreno
Clim. Past, 11, 1575–1586, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1575-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1575-2015, 2015
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We examine the climatic forcing of glacier expansion in the mid-Holocene (MH) by evaluating modelled glacier equilibrium line altitude (ELA) and climate conditions during the MH compared with pre-industrial (PI) time in the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. Glaciers in both analysed regions have an ELA that is 15-33m lower than the PI during the MH. We postulate that the modelled ELA changes may help to explain larger glacier extents observed in the mid-Holocene in both regions.
Related subject area
Dynamical processes in the tropics, incl. tropical–extratropical interactions
Role of the quasi-biennial oscillation in alleviating biases in the semi-annual oscillation
A simple model linking radiative–convective instability, convective aggregation and large-scale dynamics
Tropical cyclone asymmetric eyewall evolution and intensification in a two-layer model
Surrogate-based model parameter optimization in simulations of the West African monsoon
Changes in the tropical upper-tropospheric zonal momentum balance due to global warming
Using regional relaxation experiments to understand the development of errors in the Asian summer monsoon
WCD Ideas: Teleconnections through weather rather than stationary waves
Development of Indian summer monsoon precipitation biases in two seasonal forecasting systems and their response to large-scale drivers
Quantifying uncertainty in simulations of the West African monsoon with the use of surrogate models
Western disturbances and climate variability: a review of recent developments
Increasing frequency and lengthening season of western disturbances are linked to increasing strength and delayed northward migration of the subtropical jet
Sustained intensification of the Aleutian Low induces weak tropical Pacific sea surface warming
Multi-decadal pacemaker simulations with an intermediate-complexity climate model
Replicating the Hadley cell edge and subtropical jet latitude disconnect in idealized atmospheric models
Warm conveyor belt activity over the Pacific: modulation by the Madden–Julian Oscillation and impact on tropical–extratropical teleconnections
Understanding the dependence of mean precipitation on convective treatment and horizontal resolution in tropical aquachannel experiments
Identifying quasi-periodic variability using multivariate empirical mode decomposition: a case of the tropical Pacific
Examining the dynamics of a Borneo vortex using a balance approximation tool
Strengthening gradients in the tropical west Pacific connect to European summer temperatures on sub-seasonal timescales
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Validation of boreal summer tropical–extratropical causal links in seasonal forecasts
Large uncertainty in observed estimates of tropical width from the meridional stream function
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Can low-resolution CMIP6 ScenarioMIP models provide insight into future European post-tropical-cyclone risk?
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Metrics of the Hadley circulation strength and associated circulation trends
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Extreme Atlantic hurricane seasons made twice as likely by ocean warming
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Subtle influence of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) on seasonal sea surface temperature (SST) hindcast skill in the North Atlantic
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Aleena M. Jaison, Lesley J. Gray, Scott M. Osprey, Jeff R. Knight, and Martin B. Andrews
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1489–1504, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1489-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1489-2024, 2024
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Models have biases in semi-annual oscillation (SAO) representation, mainly due to insufficient eastward wave forcing. We examined if the bias is from increased wave absorption due to circulation biases in the low–middle stratosphere. Alleviating biases at lower altitudes improves the SAO, but substantial bias remains. Alternative methods like gravity wave parameterization changes should be explored to enhance the modelled SAO, potentially improving sudden stratospheric warming predictability.
Matthew Davison and Peter Haynes
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1153–1185, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1153-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1153-2024, 2024
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A simple model is used to study the relation between small-scale convection and large-scale variability in the tropics arising from the coupling between moisture and dynamics. In the model, moisture preferentially lies at either moist or dry states, which merge to form large-scale aggregated regions. On an equatorial β plane, these aggregated regions are localised at the Equator and propagate zonally. This forms an intermediate model between past simpler models and general circulation models.
Ting-Yu Cha and Michael M. Bell
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1013–1029, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1013-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1013-2024, 2024
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Our study investigates the dynamics of polygonal eyewall structures observed in intensifying hurricanes like Michael (2018) by using a simplified modeling approach. We develop a two-layer model to simulate the interactions between the free atmosphere and boundary layer to demonstrate the importance of different physical mechanisms in the intensification process. This simplified model offers insights into the interactions between dynamics and convection during hurricane intensification.
Matthias Fischer, Peter Knippertz, and Carsten Proppe
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1984, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1984, 2024
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The West African monsoon is vital for millions, but difficult to represent with numerical models. Our research aims at improving monsoon simulations by optimizing three model parameters—entrainment rate, ice fall speed, and soil moisture evaporation—using an advanced surrogate-based multi-objective optimization framework. Results show that tuning these parameters can improve certain monsoon characteristics, sometimes, however, at the expense of others, yet highlighting the power of our approach.
Abu Bakar Siddiqui Thakur and Jai Sukhatme
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 839–862, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-839-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-839-2024, 2024
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We analyze the present and future states of the tropical upper troposphere. Observations and climate model simulations suggest that interactions between disparate families of waves and the mean flow maintain present-day upper-level winds, and each component undergoes complex changes due to global warming. While the net east–west flow of the atmosphere may remain unaltered, this study indicates robust changes to local circulations that may influence tropical precipitation and regional climate.
Gill M. Martin and José M. Rodríguez
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 711–731, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-711-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-711-2024, 2024
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Using sensitivity experiments, we show that model errors developing in the Maritime Continent region contribute substantially to the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) circulation and rainfall errors through their effects on the western North Pacific subtropical high-pressure region and the winds and sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Indian Ocean, exacerbated by local coupled feedback. Such information will inform future model developments aimed at improving model predictions for the ASM.
Clemens Spensberger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 659–669, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-659-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-659-2024, 2024
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It is well-established that variations in convection in the tropical Indo-Pacific can influence weather in far-away regions. In this idea, I argue that the main theory used to explain this influence over large distances is incomplete. I propose hypotheses that could lead the way towards a more fundamental explanation and outline a novel approach that could be used to test the hypotheses I raise. The suggested approach might be useful to address also other long-standing questions.
Richard J. Keane, Ankur Srivastava, and Gill M. Martin
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 671–702, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-671-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-671-2024, 2024
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We evaluate the performance of two widely used models in forecasting the Indian summer monsoon, which is one of the most challenging meteorological phenomena to simulate. The work links previous studies evaluating the use of the models in weather forecasting and climate simulation, as the focus here is on seasonal forecasting, which involves intermediate timescales. As well as being important in itself, this evaluation provides insights into how errors develop in the two modelling systems.
Matthias Fischer, Peter Knippertz, Roderick van der Linden, Alexander Lemburg, Gregor Pante, Carsten Proppe, and John H. Marsham
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 511–536, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-511-2024, 2024
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Our research enhances the understanding of the complex dynamics within the West African monsoon system by analyzing the impact of specific model parameters on its characteristics. Employing surrogate models, we identified critical factors such as the entrainment rate and the fall velocity of ice. Precise definition of these parameters in weather models could improve forecast accuracy, thus enabling better strategies to manage and reduce the impact of weather events.
Kieran M. R. Hunt, Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Andrew G. Turner, A. P. Dimri, Ghulam Jeelani, Pooja, Rajib Chattopadhyay, Forest Cannon, T. Arulalan, M. S. Shekhar, T. P. Sabin, and Eliza Palazzi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-820, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-820, 2024
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Western disturbances (WDs) are storms that predominantly affect north India and Pakistan during the winter months, where they play an important role in regional water security, but can also bring a range of natural hazards. In this review, we summarise recent literature across a range of topics: their structure and lifecycle, precipitation and impacts, interactions with large-scale weather patterns, representation in models, how well they are forecast, and their response to changes in climate.
Kieran M. R. Hunt
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 345–356, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-345-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-345-2024, 2024
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This study investigates changes in weather systems that bring winter precipitation to south Asia. We find that these systems, known as western disturbances, are occurring more frequently and lasting longer into the summer months. This shift is leading to devastating floods, as happened recently in north India. By analysing 70 years of weather data, we trace this change to shifts in major air currents known as the subtropical jet. Due to climate change, such events are becoming more frequent.
William J. Dow, Christine M. McKenna, Manoj M. Joshi, Adam T. Blaker, Richard Rigby, and Amanda C. Maycock
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 357–367, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-357-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-357-2024, 2024
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Changes to sea surface temperatures in the extratropical North Pacific are driven partly by patterns of local atmospheric circulation, such as the Aleutian Low. We show that an intensification of the Aleutian Low could contribute to small changes in temperatures across the equatorial Pacific via the initiation of two mechanisms. The effect, although significant, is unlikely to explain fully the recently observed multi-year shift of a pattern of climate variability across the wider Pacific.
Franco Molteni, Fred Kucharski, and Riccardo Farneti
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 293–322, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-293-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-293-2024, 2024
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We describe some new features of an intermediate-complexity coupled model, including a three-layer thermodynamic ocean model suitable to explore the extratropical response to tropical ocean variability. We present results on the model climatology and show that important features of interdecadal and interannual variability are realistically simulated in a
pacemakercoupled ensemble of 70-year runs, where portions of the tropical Indo-Pacific are constrained to follow the observed variability.
Molly E. Menzel, Darryn W. Waugh, Zheng Wu, and Thomas Reichler
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 251–261, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-251-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-251-2024, 2024
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Recent work exploring the tropical atmospheric circulation response to climate change has revealed a disconnect in the latitudinal location of two features, the subtropical jet and the Hadley cell edge. Here, we investigate if the surprising result from coupled climate model and meteorological reanalysis output is consistent across model complexity.
Julian F. Quinting, Christian M. Grams, Edmund Kar-Man Chang, Stephan Pfahl, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 65–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-65-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-65-2024, 2024
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Research in the last few decades has revealed that rapidly ascending airstreams in extratropical cyclones have an important effect on the evolution of downstream weather and predictability. In this study, we show that the occurrence of these airstreams over the North Pacific is modulated by tropical convection. Depending on the modulation, known atmospheric circulation patterns evolve quite differently, which may affect extended-range predictions in the Atlantic–European region.
Hyunju Jung, Peter Knippertz, Yvonne Ruckstuhl, Robert Redl, Tijana Janjic, and Corinna Hoose
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 1111–1134, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1111-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1111-2023, 2023
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A narrow rainfall belt in the tropics is an important feature for large-scale circulations and the global water cycle. The accurate simulation of this rainfall feature has been a long-standing problem, with the reasons behind that unclear. We present a novel diagnostic tool that allows us to disentangle processes important for rainfall, which changes due to modifications in model. Using our diagnostic tool, one can potentially identify sources of uncertainty in weather and climate models.
Lina Boljka, Nour-Eddine Omrani, and Noel S. Keenlyside
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 1087–1109, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1087-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1087-2023, 2023
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This study examines quasi-periodic variability in the tropical Pacific on interannual timescales and related physics using a recently developed time series analysis tool. We find that wind stress in the west Pacific and recharge–discharge of ocean heat content are likely related to each other on ~1.5–4.5-year timescales (but not on others) and dominate variability in sea surface temperatures on those timescales. This may have further implications for climate models and long-term prediction.
Sam Hardy, John Methven, Juliane Schwendike, Ben Harvey, and Mike Cullen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 1019–1043, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1019-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1019-2023, 2023
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We examine a Borneo vortex case using computer simulations and satellite observations. The vortex is identified with high humidity through the atmosphere and has heaviest rainfall on its northern flank. Simulations represent circulation and rainfall accumulation well. The low-level Borneo vortex is coupled with a higher-level wave, which moves westwards along a layer with a sharp vertical gradient in moisture. Vortex growth occurs through mechanisms usually considered outside the tropics.
Chiem van Straaten, Dim Coumou, Kirien Whan, Bart van den Hurk, and Maurice Schmeits
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 887–903, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-887-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-887-2023, 2023
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Variability in the tropics can influence weather over Europe. This study evaluates a summertime connection between the two. It shows that strongly opposing west Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies have occurred more frequently since 1980, likely due to a combination of long-term warming in the west Pacific and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Three to six weeks later, the distribution of hot and cold airmasses over Europe is affected.
Francis Nkrumah, Cornelia Klein, Kwesi Akumenyi Quagraine, Rebecca Berkoh-Oforiwaa, Nana Ama Browne Klutse, Patrick Essien, Gandomè Mayeul Leger Davy Quenum, and Hubert Azoda Koffi
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 773–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-773-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-773-2023, 2023
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It is not yet clear which variations in broader atmospheric conditions of the West African monsoon may lead to mesoscale convective system (MCS) occurrences in southern West Africa (SWA). In this study, we identified nine different weather patterns and categorized them as dry-, transition-, or monsoon-season types using a method called self-organizing maps (SOMs). It was revealed that a warmer Sahel region can create favourable conditions for MCS formation in SWA.
Giorgia Di Capua, Dim Coumou, Bart van den Hurk, Antje Weisheimer, Andrew G. Turner, and Reik V. Donner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 701–723, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-701-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-701-2023, 2023
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Heavy rainfall in tropical regions interacts with mid-latitude circulation patterns, and this interaction can explain weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere during summer. In this analysis we detect these tropical–extratropical interaction pattern both in observational datasets and data obtained by atmospheric models and assess how well atmospheric models can reproduce the observed patterns. We find a good agreement although these relationships are weaker in model data.
Daniel Baldassare, Thomas Reichler, Piret Plink-Björklund, and Jacob Slawson
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 531–541, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-531-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-531-2023, 2023
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Using ensemble members from the ERA5 reanalysis, the most widely used method for estimating tropical-width trends, the meridional stream function, was found to have large error, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere and in the summer, because of weak gradients at the tropical edge and poor data quality. Another method, using the latitude where the surface wind switches from westerly to easterly, was found to have lower error due to better-observed data.
Nele Tim, Eduardo Zorita, Birgit Hünicke, and Ioana Ivanciu
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 381–397, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-381-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-381-2023, 2023
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As stated by the IPCC, southern Africa is one of the two land regions that are projected to suffer from the strongest precipitation reductions in the future. Simulated drying in this region is linked to the adjacent oceans, and prevailing winds as warm and moist air masses are transported towards the continent. Precipitation trends in past and future climate can be partly attributed to the strength of the Agulhas Current system, the current along the east and south coasts of southern Africa.
William Torgerson, Juliane Schwendike, Andrew Ross, and Chris J. Short
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 331–359, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-331-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-331-2023, 2023
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We investigated intensity fluctuations that occurred during the rapid intensification of Hurricane Irma (2017) to understand their effects on the storm structure. Using high-resolution model simulations, we found that the fluctuations were caused by local regions of strong ascent just outside the eyewall that disrupted the storm, leading to a larger and more symmetrical storm eye. This alters the location and intensity of the strongest winds in the storm and hence the storm's impact.
Anne Martin, Martin Weissmann, and Alexander Cress
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 249–264, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-249-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-249-2023, 2023
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Global wind profiles from the Aeolus satellite mission are an important recent substitute for the Global Observing System, showing an overall positive impact on numerical weather prediction forecasts. This study highlights atmospheric dynamic phenomena constituting pathways for significant improvement of Aeolus for future studies, including large-scale tropical circulation systems and the interaction of tropical cyclones undergoing an extratropical transition with the midlatitude waveguide.
Elliott Michael Sainsbury, Reinhard K. H. Schiemann, Kevin I. Hodges, Alexander J. Baker, Len C. Shaffrey, Kieran T. Bhatia, and Stella Bourdin
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1359–1379, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1359-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1359-2022, 2022
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Post-tropical cyclones (PTCs) can bring severe weather to Europe. By tracking and identifying PTCs in five global climate models, we investigate how the frequency and intensity of PTCs may change across Europe by 2100. We find no robust change in the frequency or intensity of Europe-impacting PTCs in the future. This study indicates that large uncertainties surround future Europe-impacting PTCs and provides a framework for evaluating PTCs in future generations of climate models.
Kieran M. R. Hunt and Andrew G. Turner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1341–1358, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1341-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1341-2022, 2022
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More than half of India's summer monsoon rainfall arises from low-pressure systems: storms originating over the Bay of Bengal. In observation-based data, we examine how the generation and pathway of these storms are changed by the
boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation– the chief means of large-scale control on the monsoon at timescales of a few weeks. Our study offers new insights for useful prediction of these storms, important for both water resources planning and disaster early warning.
Cornelius Immanuel Weiß, Alexander Gohm, Mathias Walter Rotach, and Thomas Torora Minda
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1003–1019, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1003-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1003-2022, 2022
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Two gap flow events in the Great Rift Valley in Ethiopia were investigated based on observations, ERA5 reanalysis data, and simulations with the numerical weather prediction model WRF. The main focus was on strong winds in the area around Lake Abaya since the winds may generate waves on the lake which help to sustain the lake's ecology. That is important in terms of food supply for the local population. The gap winds exhibit a diurnal cycle and a seasonal dependence.
Matic Pikovnik, Žiga Zaplotnik, Lina Boljka, and Nedjeljka Žagar
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 625–644, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-625-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-625-2022, 2022
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Potential future changes in the Hadley cells (HCs), either to their strength or their meridional extent, will profoundly impact the global distribution of precipitation. Therefore, to objectively evaluate and inter-compare past and future changes in the overall HC strength between different studies, a unified metric is required. The study proposes two new metrics, which alleviate the spatial inhomogeneities of the HC strength trend.
Ambrogio Volonté, Andrew G. Turner, Reinhard Schiemann, Pier Luigi Vidale, and Nicholas P. Klingaman
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 575–599, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-575-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-575-2022, 2022
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In this study we analyse the complex seasonal evolution of the East Asian summer monsoon. Using reanalysis data, we show the importance of the interaction between tropical and extratropical air masses converging at the monsoon front, particularly during its northward progression. The upper-level flow pattern (e.g. the westerly jet) controls the balance between the airstreams and thus the associated rainfall. This framework provides a basis for studies of extreme events and climate variability.
Peter Pfleiderer, Shruti Nath, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 471–482, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-471-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-471-2022, 2022
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Tropical cyclones are amongst the most dangerous weather events. Here we develop an empirical model that allows us to estimate the number and strengths of tropical cyclones for given atmospheric conditions and sea surface temperatures. An application of the model shows that atmospheric circulation is the dominant factor for seasonal tropical cyclone activity. However, warming sea surface temperatures have doubled the likelihood of extremely active hurricane seasons in the past decades.
Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Michael Herzog, and Cameron A. Petrie
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1187–1207, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1187-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1187-2021, 2021
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Western disturbances are mid-latitude, high-altitude, low-pressure areas that bring orographic precipitation into the Upper Indus Basin. Using statistical tools, we show that the interaction between western disturbances and relief explains the near-surface, cross-barrier wind activity. We also reveal the existence of a moisture pathway from the nearby seas. Overall, we offer a conceptual framework for western-disturbance activity, particularly in terms of precipitation.
Anantha Aiyyer and Terrell Wade
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1051–1072, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1051-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1051-2021, 2021
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We diagnose the mean circulations in the extratropics that are associated with rapid changes in the tropical storm storm speeds in the Atlantic. We show that rapid acceleration and deceleration are associated with distinct phasing between the tropical cyclone and weather waves of the extratropics. Over the past 5 decades, rapid acceleration and deceleration of tropical cyclones have reduced in magnitude. This might be related to the poleward shift and weakening of these extratropical waves.
Julianna Carvalho-Oliveira, Leonard Friedrich Borchert, Aurélie Duchez, Mikhail Dobrynin, and Johanna Baehr
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 739–757, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-739-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-739-2021, 2021
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This work questions the influence of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, an important component of the climate system, on the variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) a season ahead, particularly how this influence affects SST prediction credibility 2–4 months into the future. While we find this relationship is relevant for assessing SST predictions, it strongly depends on the time period and season we analyse and is more subtle than what is found in observations.
Andrea M. Jenney, David A. Randall, and Elizabeth A. Barnes
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 653–673, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-653-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-653-2021, 2021
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Storm activity in the tropics is one of the key phenomena that provide weather predictability on an extended timescale of about 10–40 d. The influence of tropical storminess on places like North America is sensitive to the overall average state of the climate system. In this study, we try to unpack the reasons why climate models do not agree on how the influence of these storms on weather over the North Pacific and North America will change in the future.
Philip Rupp and Peter Haynes
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 413–431, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-413-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-413-2021, 2021
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We study a range of dynamical aspects of the Asian monsoon anticyclone as the response of a simple numerical model to a steady imposed heating distribution with different background flow configurations. Particular focus is given on interactions between the monsoon anticyclone and active mid-latitude dynamics, which we find to have a zonally localising effect on the time-mean circulation and to be able to qualitatively alter the temporal variability of the bulk anticyclone.
Joshua White and Anantha Aiyyer
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 311–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-311-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-311-2021, 2021
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Using a simple general circulation model, we examine the structure of waves in the mid-tropospheric jet over North Africa. We show that waves occur in near-stationary groups or wave packets. As they are not swept out of the jet, this may provide the opportunity for the packets to amplify via feedback from other energy sources like rain-producing cloud complexes and mineral dust that are known to operate here. Our results address the criticism that the easterly jet is too short to sustain waves.
Franziska Aemisegger, Raphaela Vogel, Pascal Graf, Fabienne Dahinden, Leonie Villiger, Friedhelm Jansen, Sandrine Bony, Bjorn Stevens, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 281–309, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-281-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-281-2021, 2021
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The interaction of clouds in the trade wind region with the atmospheric flow is complex and at the heart of uncertainties associated with climate projections. In this study, a natural tracer of atmospheric circulation is used to establish a link between air originating from dry regions of the midlatitudes and the occurrence of specific cloud patterns. Two pathways involving transport within midlatitude weather systems are identified, by which air is brought into the trades within 5–10 d.
Jack Giddings, Adrian J. Matthews, Nicholas P. Klingaman, Karen J. Heywood, Manoj Joshi, and Benjamin G. M. Webber
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 635–655, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-635-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-635-2020, 2020
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The impact of chlorophyll on the southwest monsoon is unknown. Here, seasonally varying chlorophyll in the Bay of Bengal was imposed in a general circulation model coupled to an ocean mixed layer model. The SST increases by 0.5 °C in response to chlorophyll forcing and shallow mixed layer depths in coastal regions during the inter-monsoon. Precipitation increases significantly to 3 mm d-1 across Myanmar during June and over northeast India and Bangladesh during October, decreasing model bias.
Giorgia Di Capua, Jakob Runge, Reik V. Donner, Bart van den Hurk, Andrew G. Turner, Ramesh Vellore, Raghavan Krishnan, and Dim Coumou
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 519–539, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-519-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-519-2020, 2020
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We study the interactions between the tropical convective activity and the mid-latitude circulation in the Northern Hemisphere during boreal summer. We identify two circumglobal wave patterns with phase shifts corresponding to the South Asian and the western North Pacific monsoon systems at an intra-seasonal timescale. These patterns show two-way interactions in a causal framework at a weekly timescale and assess how El Niño affects these interactions.
Benjamin A. Stephens and Charles S. Jackson
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 389–404, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-389-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-389-2020, 2020
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We analyze abrupt transitions between tropical rainfall regimes in a single-column model (SCM) of the tropical atmosphere. Multiple equilibria have been observed before in SCMs, but here we analyze actual bifurcations. We attribute the transitions to a sudden loss of evaporative cooling in the lower column due to nonlinearities in microphysics. This study may have implications for atmospheric dynamics more broadly but also for understanding abrupt transitions in paleoclimate.
Jorge L. García-Franco, Lesley J. Gray, and Scott Osprey
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 349–371, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-349-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-349-2020, 2020
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The American monsoon system is the main source of rainfall for the subtropical Americas and an important element of Latin American agriculture. Here we use state-of-the-art climate models from the UK Met Office in different configurations to analyse the performance of these models in the American monsoon. Resolution is found to be a key factor to improve monsoon representation, whereas integrated chemistry does not improve the simulated monsoon rainfall.
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Short summary
This study analyses the 0 °C isotherm in Patagonia from 1959 to 2021, using observational and fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis data. The model aligns well with observations, highlighting significant altitude variations between the western and eastern sides of the austral Andes, a correlation between isotherm fluctuations and the Southern Annular Mode index, and an upward trend in the study area (especially in northwestern Patagonia).
This study analyses the 0 °C isotherm in Patagonia from 1959 to 2021, using observational and...
