Articles | Volume 5, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1187-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1187-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
30 Sep 2024
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 30 Sep 2024
| 30 Sep 2024
The crucial representation of deep convection for the cyclogenesis of Medicane Ianos
Florian Pantillon
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Laboratoire d'Aérologie, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, UT3, IRD, Toulouse, France
Silvio Davolio
Department of Earth Sciences, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research Council of Italy, CNR-ISAC, Bologna, Italy
Elenio Avolio
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research Council of Italy, CNR-ISAC, Lamezia Terme, Italy
Carlos Calvo-Sancho
Department of Applied Mathematics, Faculty of Computer Engineering, Universidad de Valladolid, Valladolid, Spain
Diego Saul Carrió
Meteorology Group, Department of Physics, University of the Balearic Islands, Palma, Spain
Stavros Dafis
National Observatory of Athens, Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, Athens, Greece
Emanuele Silvio Gentile
Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, United States
Juan Jesus Gonzalez-Aleman
Department of Development and Applications, Spanish State Meteorological Agency, AEMET, Madrid, Spain
Suzanne Gray
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Mario Marcello Miglietta
Department of Earth and Geoenvironmental Sciences, University of Bari, Bari, Italy
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research Council of Italy, CNR-ISAC, Padua, Italy
Platon Patlakas
Department of Physics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece
Ioannis Pytharoulis
Department of Meteorology and Climatology, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece
Didier Ricard
Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Antonio Ricchi
Department of Physical and Chemical Sciences/CETEMPS, University of L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy
Claudio Sanchez
Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom
Emmanouil Flaounas
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH, Zurich, Switzerland
Institute of Oceanography, Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Athens, Greece
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The combined use of meteorological and ocean models enabled the analysis of extreme sea conditions driven by Medicane Ianos, which hit the western coast of Greece on 18 September 2020, flooding and damaging the coast. The large spread associated with the ensemble highlighted the high model uncertainty in simulating such an extreme weather event. The different simulations have been used for outlining hazard scenarios that represent a fundamental component of the coastal risk assessment.
Ed Hawkins, Philip Brohan, Samantha N. Burgess, Stephen Burt, Gilbert P. Compo, Suzanne L. Gray, Ivan D. Haigh, Hans Hersbach, Kiki Kuijjer, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Chesley McColl, Andrew P. Schurer, Laura Slivinski, and Joanne Williams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1465–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, 2023
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We examine a severe windstorm that occurred in February 1903 and caused significant damage in the UK and Ireland. Using newly digitized weather observations from the time of the storm, combined with a modern weather forecast model, allows us to determine why this storm caused so much damage. We demonstrate that the event is one of the most severe windstorms to affect this region since detailed records began. The approach establishes a new tool to improve assessments of risk from extreme weather.
Diego S. Carrió
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 847–869, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-847-2023, 2023
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The accurate prediction of medicanes still remains a key challenge in the scientific community because of their poor predictability. In this study we assimilate different observations to improve the trajectory and intensity forecasts of the Qendresa Medicane. Results show the importance of using data assimilation techniques to improve the estimate of the atmospheric flow in the upper-level atmosphere, which has been shown to be key to improve the prediction of Qendresa.
Paolo Dandini, Céline Cornet, Renaud Binet, Laetitia Fenouil, Vadim Holodovsky, Yoav Y. Schechner, Didier Ricard, and Daniel Rosenfeld
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 6221–6242, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-6221-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-6221-2022, 2022
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3D cloud envelope and development velocity are retrieved from realistic simulations of multi-view
CLOUD (C3IEL) images. Cloud development velocity is derived by finding matching features
between acquisitions separated by 20 s. The tie points are then mapped from image to space via 3D
reconstruction of the cloud envelope obtained from 2 simultaneous images. The retrieved cloud
topography as well as the velocities are in good agreement with the estimates obtained from the
physical models.
Carlos Calvo-Sancho, Javier Díaz-Fernández, Yago Martín, Pedro Bolgiani, Mariano Sastre, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, Daniel Santos-Muñoz, José Ignacio Farrán, and María Luisa Martín
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1021–1036, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1021-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1021-2022, 2022
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Supercells are among the most complex and dangerous severe convective storms due to their associated phenomena (lightning, strong winds, large hail, flash floods, or tornadoes). In this survey we study the supercell synoptic configurations and convective environments in Spain using the atmospheric reanalysis ERA5. Supercells are grouped into hail (greater than 5 cm) and non-hail events in order to compare and analyze the two events. The results reveal statistically significant differences.
Juan Manuel Castillo, Huw W. Lewis, Akhilesh Mishra, Ashis Mitra, Jeff Polton, Ashley Brereton, Andrew Saulter, Alex Arnold, Segolene Berthou, Douglas Clark, Julia Crook, Ananda Das, John Edwards, Xiangbo Feng, Ankur Gupta, Sudheer Joseph, Nicholas Klingaman, Imranali Momin, Christine Pequignet, Claudio Sanchez, Jennifer Saxby, and Maria Valdivieso da Costa
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4193–4223, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4193-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4193-2022, 2022
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A new environmental modelling system has been developed to represent the effect of feedbacks between atmosphere, land, and ocean in the Indian region. Different approaches to simulating tropical cyclones Titli and Fani are demonstrated. It is shown that results are sensitive to the way in which the ocean response to cyclone evolution is captured in the system. Notably, we show how a more rigorous formulation for the near-surface energy budget can be included when air–sea coupling is included.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Silvio Davolio, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Florian Pantillon, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Miguel Angel Gaertner, Maria Hatzaki, Victor Homar, Samira Khodayar, Gerasimos Korres, Vassiliki Kotroni, Jonilda Kushta, Marco Reale, and Didier Ricard
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 173–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-173-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-173-2022, 2022
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This is a collective effort to describe the state of the art in Mediterranean cyclone dynamics, climatology, prediction (weather and climate scales) and impacts. More than that, the paper focuses on the future directions of research that would advance the broader field of Mediterranean cyclones as a whole. Thereby, we propose interdisciplinary cooperation and additional modelling and forecasting strategies, and we highlight the need for new impact-oriented approaches to climate prediction.
Mario Marcello Miglietta and Silvio Davolio
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 627–646, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-627-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-627-2022, 2022
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The main results emerging from the HyMeX SOP1 campaign and in the subsequent research activity in three Italian target areas are highlighted through conceptual models and through the identification of the relevant mesoscale environmental characteristics conducive to heavy rain events.
Suzanne L. Gray, Kevin I. Hodges, Jonathan L. Vautrey, and John Methven
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1303–1324, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1303-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1303-2021, 2021
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This research demonstrates, using feature identification and tracking, that anticlockwise rotating vortices at about 7 km altitude called tropopause polar vortices frequently interact with storms developing in the Arctic region, affecting their structure and where they occur. This interaction has implications for the predictability of Arctic weather, given the long lifetime but a relatively small spatial scale of these vortices compared with the density of the polar observation network.
Samira Khodayar, Silvio Davolio, Paolo Di Girolamo, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Emmanouil Flaounas, Nadia Fourrie, Keun-Ok Lee, Didier Ricard, Benoit Vie, Francois Bouttier, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, and Veronique Ducrocq
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17051–17078, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17051-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17051-2021, 2021
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Heavy precipitation (HP) constitutes a major meteorological threat in the western Mediterranean. Every year, recurrent events affect the area with fatal consequences. Despite this being a well-known issue, open questions still remain. The understanding of the underlying mechanisms and the modeling representation of the events must be improved. In this article we present the most recent lessons learned from the Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX).
Emmanouil Flaounas, Suzanne L. Gray, and Franziska Teubler
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 255–279, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-255-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-255-2021, 2021
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In this study, we quantify the relative contribution of different atmospheric processes to the development of 100 intense Mediterranean cyclones and show that both upper tropospheric systems and diabatic processes contribute to cyclone development. However, these contributions are complex and present high variability among the cases. For this reason, we analyse several exemplary cases in more detail, including 10 systems that have been identified in the past as tropical-like cyclones.
Bijoy Thompson, Claudio Sanchez, Boon Chong Peter Heng, Rajesh Kumar, Jianyu Liu, Xiang-Yu Huang, and Pavel Tkalich
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1081–1100, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1081-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1081-2021, 2021
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This article describes the development and ocean forecast evaluation of an atmosphere–ocean coupled prediction system for the Maritime Continent domain, which includes the eastern Indian and western Pacific oceans. The coupled system comprises regional configurations of the atmospheric model MetUM and ocean model NEMO, coupled using the OASIS3-MCT libraries. The model forecast deviation of selected fields relative to observations is within acceptable error limits of operational forecast models.
Nicolas Blanchard, Florian Pantillon, Jean-Pierre Chaboureau, and Julien Delanoë
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 37–53, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-37-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-37-2021, 2021
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Rare aircraft observations in the warm conveyor belt outflow associated with an extratropical cyclone are complemented with convection-permitting simulations. They reveal a complex tropopause structure with two jet stream cores, from which one is reinforced by bands of negative potential vorticity. They show that negative potential vorticity takes its origin in mid-level convection, which indirectly accelerates the jet stream and, thus, may influence the downstream large-scale circulation.
Shunya Koseki, Priscilla A. Mooney, William Cabos, Miguel Ángel Gaertner, Alba de la Vara, and Juan Jesus González-Alemán
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 53–71, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-53-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-53-2021, 2021
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This study investigated one case of a tropical-like cyclone over the Mediterranean Sea under present and future climate conditions with a regional climate model. A pseudo global warming (PGW) technique is employed to simulate the cyclone under future climate, and our simulation showed that the cyclone is moderately strengthened by warmer climate. Other PGW simulations where only ocean and atmosphere are warmed reveal the interesting results that both have counteracting effects on the cyclone.
Nicolas Blanchard, Florian Pantillon, Jean-Pierre Chaboureau, and Julien Delanoë
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 617–634, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-617-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-617-2020, 2020
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The study presents the first results from the airborne RASTA observations measured during the North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment (NAWDEX). Our combined Eulerian–Lagrangian analysis found three types of organized convection (frontal, banded and mid-level) in the warm conveyor belt (WCB) of the Stalactite cyclone. The results emphasize that convection embedded in WCBs occurs in a coherent and organized manner rather than as isolated cells.
Raphael Portmann, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 597–615, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-597-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-597-2020, 2020
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In September 2018 an intense Mediterranean cyclone with structural similarities to a hurricane, a so-called medicane, caused severe damage in Greece. Its development was uncertain, even just a few days in advance. The reason for this was uncertainties in the jet stream over the North Atlantic 3 d prior to cyclogenesis that propagated into the Mediterranean. They led to an uncertain position of the upper-level disturbance and, as a result, of the position and thermal structure of the cyclone.
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Executive editor
High-impact medicanes, like Ianos September 2020, are occasionally poorly predicted by operational numerical weather prediction models, and it is therefore very important to understand the factors that limit their predictability and to eventually improve predictions. The well-written study by Pantillon et al. investigates simulations of medicane Ianos performed with 10 model setups, using different models, horizontal grid spacings, and representations of moist convection. Their results highlight the critical importance of a high-resolution representation of moist convection, and the coupling of convective and baroclinic processes in the cyclogenesis phase of the medicane. These results from the major modelling undertaking in this study have important ramifications also for practical forecasting.
High-impact medicanes, like Ianos September 2020, are occasionally poorly predicted by...
Short summary
Cyclone Ianos of September 2020 was a high-impact but poorly predicted medicane (Mediterranean hurricane). A community effort of numerical modelling provides robust results to improve prediction. It is found that the representation of local thunderstorms controlled the interaction of Ianos with a jet stream at larger scales and its subsequent evolution. The results help us understand the peculiar dynamics of medicanes and provide guidance for the next generation of weather and climate models.
Cyclone Ianos of September 2020 was a high-impact but poorly predicted medicane (Mediterranean...
