Articles | Volume 5, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-511-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-511-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
17 Apr 2024
Research article |
| 17 Apr 2024
| 17 Apr 2024
Quantifying uncertainty in simulations of the West African monsoon with the use of surrogate models
Matthias Fischer
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Engineering Mechanics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
Peter Knippertz
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
Roderick van der Linden
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
Alexander Lemburg
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
Gregor Pante
Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany
Carsten Proppe
Institute of Engineering Mechanics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
John H. Marsham
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
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Seraphine Hauser, Franziska Teubler, Michael Riemer, Peter Knippertz, and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 633–658, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-633-2024, 2024
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Blocking over Greenland has substantial impacts on the weather and climate in mid- and high latitudes. This study applies a quasi-Lagrangian thinking on the dynamics of Greenland blocking and reveals two pathways of anticyclonic anomalies linked to the block. Moist processes were found to play a dominant role in the formation and maintenance of blocking. This emphasizes the necessity of the correct representation of moist processes in weather and climate models to realistically depict blocking.
Joseph Smith, Cathryn Birch, John Marsham, Simon Peatman, Massimo Bollasina, and George Pankiewicz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 567–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, 2024
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Nowcasting uses observations to make predictions of the atmosphere on short timescales and is particularly applicable to the Maritime Continent, where storms rapidly develop and cause natural disasters. This paper evaluates probabilistic and deterministic satellite nowcasting algorithms over the Maritime Continent. We show that the probabilistic approach is most skilful at small scales (~ 60 km), whereas the deterministic approach is most skilful at larger scales (~ 200 km).
Maurus Borne, Peter Knippertz, Martin Weissmann, Benjamin Witschas, Cyrille Flamant, Rosimar Rios-Berrios, and Peter Veals
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 561–581, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-561-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-561-2024, 2024
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This study assesses the quality of Aeolus wind measurements over the tropical Atlantic. The results identified the accuracy and precision of the Aeolus wind measurements and the potential source of errors. For instance, the study revealed atmospheric conditions that can deteriorate the measurement quality, such as weaker laser signal in cloudy or dusty conditions, and confirmed the presence of an orbital-dependant bias. These results can help to improve the Aeolus wind measurement algorithm.
Hyunju Jung, Peter Knippertz, Yvonne Ruckstuhl, Robert Redl, Tijana Janjic, and Corinna Hoose
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 1111–1134, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1111-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1111-2023, 2023
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A narrow rainfall belt in the tropics is an important feature for large-scale circulations and the global water cycle. The accurate simulation of this rainfall feature has been a long-standing problem, with the reasons behind that unclear. We present a novel diagnostic tool that allows us to disentangle processes important for rainfall, which changes due to modifications in model. Using our diagnostic tool, one can potentially identify sources of uncertainty in weather and climate models.
Lea Eisenstein, Benedikt Schulz, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Peter Knippertz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 981–999, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-981-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-981-2023, 2023
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Mesoscale high-wind features within extratropical cyclones can cause immense damage. In Part 1 of this work, we introduced RAMEFI (RAndom-forest-based MEsoscale wind Feature Identification), an objective, flexible identification tool for these wind features based on a probabilistic random forest. Here, we use RAMEFI to compile a climatology of the features over 19 extended winter seasons over western and central Europe, focusing on relative occurrence, affected areas and further characteristics.
Valerian Hahn, Ralf Meerkötter, Christiane Voigt, Sonja Gisinger, Daniel Sauer, Valéry Catoire, Volker Dreiling, Hugh Coe, Cyrille Flamant, Stefan Kaufmann, Jonas Kleine, Peter Knippertz, Manuel Moser, Philip Rosenberg, Hans Schlager, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, and Jonathan Taylor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8515–8530, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8515-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8515-2023, 2023
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During the DACCIWA campaign in West Africa, we found a 35 % increase in the cloud droplet concentration that formed in a polluted compared with a less polluted environment and a decrease of 17 % in effective droplet diameter. Radiative transfer simulations, based on the measured cloud properties, reveal that these low-level polluted clouds radiate only 2.6 % more energy back to space, compared with a less polluted cloud. The corresponding additional decrease in temperature is rather small.
Seraphine Hauser, Franziska Teubler, Michael Riemer, Peter Knippertz, and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 399–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-399-2023, 2023
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Blocking describes a flow configuration in the midlatitudes where stationary high-pressure systems block the propagation of weather systems. This study combines three individual perspectives that capture the dynamics and importance of various processes in the formation of a major blocking in 2016 from a weather regime perspective. In future work, this framework will enable a holistic view of the dynamics and the role of moist processes in different life cycle stages of blocked weather regimes.
Patrick Ludwig, Florian Ehmele, Mário J. Franca, Susanna Mohr, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Uwe Ehret, Hendrik Feldmann, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Michael Kunz, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1287–1311, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, 2023
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Heavy precipitation in July 2021 led to widespread floods in western Germany and neighboring countries. The event was among the five heaviest precipitation events of the past 70 years in Germany, and the river discharges exceeded by far the statistical 100-year return values. Simulations of the event under future climate conditions revealed a strong and non-linear effect on flood peaks: for +2 K global warming, an 18 % increase in rainfall led to a 39 % increase of the flood peak in the Ahr river.
Susanna Mohr, Uwe Ehret, Michael Kunz, Patrick Ludwig, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Florian Ehmele, Hendrik Feldmann, Mário J. Franca, Christian Gattke, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Marc Scheibel, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 525–551, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, 2023
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The flood event in July 2021 was one of the most severe disasters in Europe in the last half century. The objective of this two-part study is a multi-disciplinary assessment that examines the complex process interactions in different compartments, from meteorology to hydrological conditions to hydro-morphological processes to impacts on assets and environment. In addition, we address the question of what measures are possible to generate added value to early response management.
Moritz Zemann, Roderick van der Linden, Dan Trinh Cong, Duong Hoang Thai Vu, Nguyet Minh Nguyen, Frank Seidel, Peter Oberle, Franz Nestmann, and Andreas H. Fink
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1447, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1447, 2023
Preprint withdrawn
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The study investigates the possibility to predict wave heights close to the coast of the Mekong Delta based on long time climate model wave heights which are only availabe offshore. Due to severe coastal erosion in the Mekong Delta with average land loss rates of up to 10m per year, the coast needs to be protected from wave attacks e.g. by breakwaters. To design a breakwater in the right dimensions for the local conditions, the knowledge of wave heights is essential to the performing engineer.
Lea Eisenstein, Benedikt Schulz, Ghulam A. Qadir, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Peter Knippertz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1157–1182, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1157-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1157-2022, 2022
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Mesoscale high-wind features within extratropical cyclones can cause immense damage. Here, we present RAMEFI, a novel approach to objectively identify the wind features based on a probabilistic random forest. RAMEFI enables a wide range of applications such as probabilistic predictions for the occurrence or a multi-decadal climatology of these features, which will be the focus of Part 2 of the study, with the goal of improving wind and, specifically, wind gust forecasts in the long run.
Adrien Deroubaix, Laurent Menut, Cyrille Flamant, Peter Knippertz, Andreas H. Fink, Anneke Batenburg, Joel Brito, Cyrielle Denjean, Cheikh Dione, Régis Dupuy, Valerian Hahn, Norbert Kalthoff, Fabienne Lohou, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Guillaume Siour, Paolo Tuccella, and Christiane Voigt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3251–3273, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3251-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3251-2022, 2022
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During the summer monsoon in West Africa, pollutants emitted in urbanized areas modify cloud cover and precipitation patterns. We analyze these patterns with the WRF-CHIMERE model, integrating the effects of aerosols on meteorology, based on the numerous observations provided by the Dynamics-Aerosol-Climate-Interactions campaign. This study adds evidence to recent findings that increased pollution levels in West Africa delay the breakup time of low-level clouds and reduce precipitation.
Christopher J. Diekmann, Matthias Schneider, Benjamin Ertl, Frank Hase, Omaira García, Farahnaz Khosrawi, Eliezer Sepúlveda, Peter Knippertz, and Peter Braesicke
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5273–5292, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5273-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5273-2021, 2021
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The joint analysis of different stable water isotopes in water vapour is a powerful tool for investigating atmospheric moisture pathways. This paper presents a novel global and multi-annual dataset of H2O and HDO in mid-tropospheric water vapour by using data from the satellite sensor Metop/IASI. Due to its unique combination of coverage and resolution in space and time, this dataset is highly promising for studying the hydrological cycle and its representation in weather and climate models.
Fabienne Dahinden, Franziska Aemisegger, Heini Wernli, Matthias Schneider, Christopher J. Diekmann, Benjamin Ertl, Peter Knippertz, Martin Werner, and Stephan Pfahl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16319–16347, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16319-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16319-2021, 2021
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We use high-resolution numerical isotope modelling and Lagrangian backward trajectories to identify moisture transport pathways and governing physical and dynamical processes that affect the free-tropospheric humidity and isotopic variability over the eastern subtropical North Atlantic. Furthermore, we conduct a thorough isotope modelling validation with aircraft and remote-sensing observations of water vapour isotopes.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, Samiro Khodayar, and Peter Knippertz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 561–580, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-561-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-561-2021, 2021
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The prediction capabilities of GPS, operational (low-resolution) and targeted (high-resolution) radiosondes for data assimilation in a Mediterranean heavy precipitation event at different model resolutions are investigated. The results show that even if GPS provides accurate observations, their lack of vertical information hampers the improvement, demonstrating the need for assimilating radiosondes, where the location and timing of release was more determinant than the vertical resolution.
Jessica C. A. Baker, Luis Garcia-Carreras, Manuel Gloor, John H. Marsham, Wolfgang Buermann, Humberto R. da Rocha, Antonio D. Nobre, Alessandro Carioca de Araujo, and Dominick V. Spracklen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2279–2300, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2279-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2279-2021, 2021
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Evapotranspiration (ET) is a vital part of the Amazon water cycle, but it is difficult to measure over large areas. In this study, we compare spatial patterns, seasonality, and recent trends in Amazon ET from a water-budget analysis with estimates from satellites, reanalysis, and global climate models. We find large differences between products, showing that many widely used datasets and climate models may not provide a reliable representation of this crucial variable over the Amazon.
Gregor Pante, Peter Knippertz, Andreas H. Fink, and Anke Kniffka
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 35–55, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-35-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-35-2021, 2021
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Seasonal rainfall amounts along the densely populated West African Guinea coast have been decreasing during the past 35 years, with recently accelerating trends. We find strong indications that this is in part related to increasing human air pollution in the region. Given the fast increase in emissions, the political implications of this work are significant. Reducing air pollution locally and regionally would mitigate an imminent health crisis and socio-economic damage from reduced rainfall.
Alima Dajuma, Kehinde O. Ogunjobi, Heike Vogel, Peter Knippertz, Siélé Silué, Evelyne Touré N'Datchoh, Véronique Yoboué, and Bernhard Vogel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 5373–5390, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5373-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5373-2020, 2020
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A modeling study through COSMO-ART was used to investigate the implication of downward mixing induced by clouds in transporting biomass burning aerosols from central and southern Africa located between 2 and 4 km into the PBL over southern West Africa. Results showed that individual mixing events south of the coast of Côte d’Ivoire due to mid-level convective clouds injects part of the biomass burning plume into the PBL. 15 % of CO mass from the 2–4 km layer is mixed below 1 km.
Cyrielle Denjean, Thierry Bourrianne, Frederic Burnet, Marc Mallet, Nicolas Maury, Aurélie Colomb, Pamela Dominutti, Joel Brito, Régis Dupuy, Karine Sellegri, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Cyrille Flamant, and Peter Knippertz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 4735–4756, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4735-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4735-2020, 2020
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This paper presents aircraft measurements of aerosol optical properties over southern West Africa. We show that aerosol optical properties in the boundary layer were dominated by a persistent biomass burning loading from the Southern Hemisphere. Biomass burning aerosols were more light absorbing that those previously measured in other areas (Amazonia, North America). Our study suggests that lens-coated black carbon particles were the dominant absorber for these biomass burning aerosols.
Hendrik Andersen, Jan Cermak, Julia Fuchs, Peter Knippertz, Marco Gaetani, Julian Quinting, Sebastian Sippel, and Roland Vogt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 3415–3438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3415-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3415-2020, 2020
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Fog and low clouds (FLCs) are an essential but poorly understood element of Namib regional climate. Here, a satellite-based data set of FLCs in central Namib, reanalysis data, and back trajectories are used to systematically analyze conditions when FLCs occur. Synoptic-scale mechanisms are identified that influence the formation of FLCs and the onshore advection of marine boundary-layer air masses. The findings lead to a new conceptual model of mechanisms that drive FLC variability in the Namib.
Sophie L. Haslett, Jonathan W. Taylor, Mathew Evans, Eleanor Morris, Bernhard Vogel, Alima Dajuma, Joel Brito, Anneke M. Batenburg, Stephan Borrmann, Johannes Schneider, Christiane Schulz, Cyrielle Denjean, Thierry Bourrianne, Peter Knippertz, Régis Dupuy, Alfons Schwarzenböck, Daniel Sauer, Cyrille Flamant, James Dorsey, Ian Crawford, and Hugh Coe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 15217–15234, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15217-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15217-2019, 2019
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Three aircraft datasets from the DACCIWA campaign in summer 2016 are used here to show there is a background mass of pollution present in the lower atmosphere in southern West Africa. We suggest that this likely comes from biomass burning in central and southern Africa, which has been carried into the region over the Atlantic Ocean. This would have a negative health impact on populations living near the coast and may alter the impact of growing city emissions on cloud formation and the monsoon.
Carly L. Reddington, William T. Morgan, Eoghan Darbyshire, Joel Brito, Hugh Coe, Paulo Artaxo, Catherine E. Scott, John Marsham, and Dominick V. Spracklen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9125–9152, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9125-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9125-2019, 2019
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We use an aerosol model and observations to explore model representation of aerosol emissions from fires in the Amazon. We find that observed aerosol concentrations are captured by the model over deforestation fires in the western Amazon but underestimated over savanna fires in the Cerrado environment. The model underestimates observed aerosol optical depth (AOD) even when the observed aerosol vertical profile is reproduced. We suggest this may be due to uncertainties in the AOD calculation.
Jonathan W. Taylor, Sophie L. Haslett, Keith Bower, Michael Flynn, Ian Crawford, James Dorsey, Tom Choularton, Paul J. Connolly, Valerian Hahn, Christiane Voigt, Daniel Sauer, Régis Dupuy, Joel Brito, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Thierry Bourriane, Cyrielle Denjean, Phil Rosenberg, Cyrille Flamant, James D. Lee, Adam R. Vaughan, Peter G. Hill, Barbara Brooks, Valéry Catoire, Peter Knippertz, and Hugh Coe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 8503–8522, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8503-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8503-2019, 2019
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Low-level clouds cover a wide area of southern West Africa (SWA) and play an important role in the region's climate, reflecting sunlight away from the surface. We performed aircraft measurements of aerosols and clouds over SWA during the 2016 summer monsoon and found pollution, and polluted clouds, across the whole region. Smoke from biomass burning in Central Africa is transported to West Africa, causing a polluted background which limits the effect of local pollution on cloud properties.
Anke Kniffka, Peter Knippertz, and Andreas H. Fink
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 1623–1647, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1623-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1623-2019, 2019
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The role of low-level clouds in the southern West Africa (SWA) energy balance and the West African monsoon system is assessed via targeted sensitivity studies with the NWP model ICON. We show for the first time that rainfall over SWA depends logarithmically on the optical thickness of low clouds, as these control the diurnal evolution of the planetary boundary layer, vertical stability and finally convection. Small variations in clouds or aerosol have a substantial impact on precipitation.
Adrien Deroubaix, Laurent Menut, Cyrille Flamant, Joel Brito, Cyrielle Denjean, Volker Dreiling, Andreas Fink, Corinne Jambert, Norbert Kalthoff, Peter Knippertz, Russ Ladkin, Sylvain Mailler, Marlon Maranan, Federica Pacifico, Bruno Piguet, Guillaume Siour, and Solène Turquety
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 473–497, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-473-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-473-2019, 2019
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This article presents a detailed analysis of anthropogenic and biomass burning pollutants over the Gulf of Guinea coastal region, using observations from the DACCIWA field campaign and modeling. The novelty is that we focus on how these two pollution sources are mixed and transported further inland. We show that during the day pollutants are accumulated along the coastline and transported northward as soon as the daytime convection in the atmospheric boundary layer ceases (16:00 UTC).
Konrad Deetz, Heike Vogel, Sophie Haslett, Peter Knippertz, Hugh Coe, and Bernhard Vogel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 14271–14295, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14271-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14271-2018, 2018
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Water uptake can significantly increase the size and therefore alters the optical properties of aerosols. Our model study reveals that the high moisture and aerosol burden in the southern West African monsoon
layer makes it favorable to quantify properties that determine the aerosol liquid water content and its impact on the aerosol optical depth and radiative transfer. Especially in moist tropical environments the relative humidity impact on AOD has to be considered in atmospheric models.
Cyrille Flamant, Adrien Deroubaix, Patrick Chazette, Joel Brito, Marco Gaetani, Peter Knippertz, Andreas H. Fink, Gaëlle de Coetlogon, Laurent Menut, Aurélie Colomb, Cyrielle Denjean, Rémi Meynadier, Philip Rosenberg, Regis Dupuy, Pamela Dominutti, Jonathan Duplissy, Thierry Bourrianne, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Michel Ramonet, and Julien Totems
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 12363–12389, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-12363-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-12363-2018, 2018
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This work sheds light on the complex mechanisms by which coastal shallow circulations distribute atmospheric pollutants over the densely populated southern West African region. Pollutants of concern are anthropogenic emissions from coastal cities, as well as biomass burning aerosol and dust associated with long-range transport. The complex vertical distribution of aerosols over coastal southern West Africa is investigated using airborne observations and numerical simulations.
Angela Benedetti, Jeffrey S. Reid, Peter Knippertz, John H. Marsham, Francesca Di Giuseppe, Samuel Rémy, Sara Basart, Olivier Boucher, Ian M. Brooks, Laurent Menut, Lucia Mona, Paolo Laj, Gelsomina Pappalardo, Alfred Wiedensohler, Alexander Baklanov, Malcolm Brooks, Peter R. Colarco, Emilio Cuevas, Arlindo da Silva, Jeronimo Escribano, Johannes Flemming, Nicolas Huneeus, Oriol Jorba, Stelios Kazadzis, Stefan Kinne, Thomas Popp, Patricia K. Quinn, Thomas T. Sekiyama, Taichu Tanaka, and Enric Terradellas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10615–10643, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10615-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10615-2018, 2018
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Numerical prediction of aerosol particle properties has become an important activity at many research and operational weather centers. This development is due to growing interest from a diverse set of stakeholders, such as air quality regulatory bodies, aviation authorities, solar energy plant managers, climate service providers, and health professionals. This paper describes the advances in the field and sets out requirements for observations for the sustainability of these activities.
Konrad Deetz, Heike Vogel, Peter Knippertz, Bianca Adler, Jonathan Taylor, Hugh Coe, Keith Bower, Sophie Haslett, Michael Flynn, James Dorsey, Ian Crawford, Christoph Kottmeier, and Bernhard Vogel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 9767–9788, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9767-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9767-2018, 2018
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Highly resolved process study simulations for 2–3 July are conducted with COSMO-ART to assess the aerosol direct and indirect effect on meteorological conditions over southern West Africa. The meteorological phenomena of Atlantic inflow and stratus-to-cumulus transition are identified as highly susceptible to the aerosol direct effect, leading to a spatial shift of the Atlantic inflow front and a temporal shift of the stratus-to-cumulus transition with changes in the aerosol amount.
Alexander J. Roberts, Margaret J. Woodage, John H. Marsham, Ellie J. Highwood, Claire L. Ryder, Willie McGinty, Simon Wilson, and Julia Crook
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 9025–9048, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9025-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9025-2018, 2018
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The summer Saharan dust hotspot is seasonally tied to the occurrence of convective storms. Global weather and climate models parameterise convection and so are unable to represent their associated dust uplift (haboobs). However, this work shows that even when simulations represent convection explicitly: (1) dust fields are not strongly affected, (2) convective storms are too small, (3) haboobs are too weak and (4) the land surface (bare soil and soil moisture) is dominant in controlling dust.
Florian Pantillon, Andreas Wieser, Bianca Adler, Ulrich Corsmeier, and Peter Knippertz
Adv. Sci. Res., 15, 91–97, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-15-91-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-15-91-2018, 2018
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The Wind and Storms Experiment (WASTEX) was conducted during the winter 2016–2017 in the Upper Rhine Valley to better understand the formation of wind gusts during the passage of storms. The key instrument of the field campaign was a scanning Doppler lidar, which provides accurate wind observations along its beam with high spatial and temporal resolutions and within a range of several km. Results from WASTEX should help improving the representation of wind gusts in weather and climate models.
Astrid Kerkweg, Christiane Hofmann, Patrick Jöckel, Mariano Mertens, and Gregor Pante
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1059–1076, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1059-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1059-2018, 2018
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As part of the model documentation of the MECO(n) system, this article documents the basics of the Multi-Model-Driver expansion (MMD v2.0) to two-way coupling and the newly developed generic MESSy submodel GRID (v1.0), which is used by MMD v2.0 for the generalised definition of arbitrary grids and for the
transformation of data between them.
Norbert Kalthoff, Fabienne Lohou, Barbara Brooks, Gbenga Jegede, Bianca Adler, Karmen Babić, Cheikh Dione, Adewale Ajao, Leonard K. Amekudzi, Jeffrey N. A. Aryee, Muritala Ayoola, Geoffrey Bessardon, Sylvester K. Danuor, Jan Handwerker, Martin Kohler, Marie Lothon, Xabier Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia, Victoria Smith, Lukman Sunmonu, Andreas Wieser, Andreas H. Fink, and Peter Knippertz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2913–2928, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2913-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2913-2018, 2018
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Extended low-level stratus clouds (LLC) form frequently in southern West Africa during the night-time and persist long into the next day. They affect the radiation budget, atmospheric boundary-layer (BL) evolution and regional climate. The relevant processes governing their formation and dissolution are not fully understood. Thus, a field campaign was conducted in summer 2016, which provided a comprehensive data set for process studies, specifically of interactions between LLC and BL conditions.
Netsanet K. Alamirew, Martin C. Todd, Claire L. Ryder, John H. Marsham, and Yi Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 1241–1262, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1241-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1241-2018, 2018
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This paper quantifies the radiative effects of dust and water vapour in the Saharan heat low. Dust has a warming effect at the top of the atmosphere while cooling the surface. Water vapour has a warming effect both at the top of atmosphere and the surface. We find dust and water vapour have similar effects in driving the variability in the top-of-atmosphere radiative budget, while dust has a stronger effect than water vapour in controlling day-to-day variability of the surface radiative budget.
Adriana Rocha-Lima, J. Vanderlei Martins, Lorraine A. Remer, Martin Todd, John H. Marsham, Sebastian Engelstaedter, Claire L. Ryder, Carolina Cavazos-Guerra, Paulo Artaxo, Peter Colarco, and Richard Washington
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 1023–1043, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1023-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1023-2018, 2018
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We present results of ground-based measurements and subsequent laboratory analysis of Sahara dust samples collected in Algeria and Mauritania during the Fennec campaign in 2011. The results show that the sampled dust has low absorption characteristics and exhibits a distinct spectral bow-like shape. We find distinctive differences in the composition and optical characteristics of the dust from the two sites, corroborating with other studies that not all Saharan dust is the same.
Joel Brito, Evelyn Freney, Pamela Dominutti, Agnes Borbon, Sophie L. Haslett, Anneke M. Batenburg, Aurelie Colomb, Regis Dupuy, Cyrielle Denjean, Frederic Burnet, Thierry Bourriane, Adrien Deroubaix, Karine Sellegri, Stephan Borrmann, Hugh Coe, Cyrille Flamant, Peter Knippertz, and Alfons Schwarzenboeck
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 757–772, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-757-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-757-2018, 2018
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This work focuses on sources of submicron aerosol particles over southern West Africa (SWA). Results have shown that isoprene, a gas-phase compound of biogenic origin, is responsible for roughly 25 % of the organic aerosol (OA) loading, under most background or urban plumes alike. This fraction represents a lower estimate from the biogenic contribution in this fairly polluted region. This work sheds light upon the role of anthropogenic and biogenic emissions on the pollution burden over SWA.
Philipp Gasch, Daniel Rieger, Carolin Walter, Pavel Khain, Yoav Levi, Peter Knippertz, and Bernhard Vogel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 13573–13604, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13573-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13573-2017, 2017
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This paper presents simulations of a severe dust event in the Eastern Mediterranean with a weather prediction model using very high spatial resolution. Due to the high resolution, the small-scale features of the event are captured in great detail. Consequently, the previously erroneous forecast of the event is improved drastically. In addition, the interaction of mineral dust with radiation inside the model has been included as a part of this work and is presented here.
Florian Pantillon, Peter Knippertz, and Ulrich Corsmeier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1795–1810, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1795-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1795-2017, 2017
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The predictability of 25 historical winter storms over Europe is revisited by taking advantage of a homogeneous dataset of retrospective forecasts for the 1995–2015 period. The forecasts well predict the storms up to 2–4 days ahead only but also show clear potential for the early warning of storms up to 10 days ahead. However, the predictability of individual storms exhibits large variability and physical characteristics are identified for outliers with a poor predictability.
Peter Knippertz, Andreas H. Fink, Adrien Deroubaix, Eleanor Morris, Flore Tocquer, Mat J. Evans, Cyrille Flamant, Marco Gaetani, Christophe Lavaysse, Celine Mari, John H. Marsham, Rémi Meynadier, Abalo Affo-Dogo, Titike Bahaga, Fabien Brosse, Konrad Deetz, Ridha Guebsi, Issaou Latifou, Marlon Maranan, Philip D. Rosenberg, and Andreas Schlueter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 10893–10918, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10893-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10893-2017, 2017
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In June–July 2016 DACCIWA (Dynamics–Aerosol–Chemistry–Cloud Interactions in West Africa), a large, EU-funded European–African project, organised an international field campaign in densely populated southern West Africa, including measurements from ground sites, research aircraft, weather balloons and urban sites. This paper gives an overview of the atmospheric evolution during this period focusing on meteorological (precipitation, cloudiness, winds) and composition (gases, particles) aspects.
John C. Kealy, Franco Marenco, John H. Marsham, Luis Garcia-Carreras, Pete N. Francis, Michael C. Cooke, and James Hocking
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 5789–5807, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5789-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5789-2017, 2017
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Using novel methods of cloud detection from aircraft data over the Sahara desert, we evaluate the performance of the Meteosat satellite in measuring cloud properties: namely, the cloud mask and the cloud-top height. We find that the cloud mask can justifiably be used for many applications (such as creating a detailed Saharan cloud climatology), and we also discuss its limitations. As for the cloud-top height, we show that the dataset cannot yet be considered robust in this part of the world.
Céline Planche, Graham W. Mann, Kenneth S. Carslaw, Mohit Dalvi, John H. Marsham, and Paul R. Field
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 3371–3384, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3371-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3371-2017, 2017
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A convection-permitting limited area model with prognostic aerosol microphysics is applied to investigate how concentrations of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) in the marine boundary layer are affected by high-resolution dynamical and thermodynamic fields at sub-climate model scale. We gain new insight into the way primary sea-salt and secondary sulfate particles contribute to the overall CCN variance, and find a marked difference in the variability of super- and sub-micron CCN.
John H. Marsham, Douglas J. Parker, Martin C. Todd, Jamie R. Banks, Helen E. Brindley, Luis Garcia-Carreras, Alexander J. Roberts, and Claire L. Ryder
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3563–3575, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3563-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3563-2016, 2016
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The roles of water, clouds and airborne dust in controlling the heating of the Sahara are uncertain, which has major implications for the West African monsoon. Observations from the Fennec project, with satellite data, show that total atmospheric water content provides a far stronger control on total radiative heating than dust does, but dust provides the stronger control on surface heating. Therefore major heating errors in global models are likely due to known errors in water transport.
S. R. Kolusu, J. H. Marsham, J. Mulcahy, B. Johnson, C. Dunning, M. Bush, and D. V. Spracklen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 12251–12266, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12251-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12251-2015, 2015
C. L. Ryder, J. B. McQuaid, C. Flamant, P. D. Rosenberg, R. Washington, H. E. Brindley, E. J. Highwood, J. H. Marsham, D. J. Parker, M. C. Todd, J. R. Banks, J. K. Brooke, S. Engelstaedter, V. Estelles, P. Formenti, L. Garcia-Carreras, C. Kocha, F. Marenco, H. Sodemann, C. J. T. Allen, A. Bourdon, M. Bart, C. Cavazos-Guerra, S. Chevaillier, J. Crosier, E. Darbyshire, A. R. Dean, J. R. Dorsey, J. Kent, D. O'Sullivan, K. Schepanski, K. Szpek, J. Trembath, and A. Woolley
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 8479–8520, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8479-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8479-2015, 2015
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Measurements of the Saharan atmosphere and of atmospheric mineral dust are lacking but are vital to our understanding of the climate of this region and their impacts further afield. Novel observations were made by the Fennec climate programme during June 2011 and 2012 using ground-based, remote sensing and airborne platforms. Here we describe the airborne observations and the contributions they have made to furthering our understanding of the Saharan climate system.
S. Fiedler, K. Schepanski, P. Knippertz, B. Heinold, and I. Tegen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 8983–9000, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8983-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8983-2014, 2014
S. M. Cowie, P. Knippertz, and J. H. Marsham
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 8579–8597, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8579-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8579-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Dynamical processes in the tropics, incl. tropical–extratropical interactions
WCD Ideas: Teleconnections through weather rather than stationary waves
Development of Indian summer monsoon precipitation biases in two seasonal forecasting systems and their response to large-scale drivers
Increasing frequency and lengthening season of western disturbances are linked to increasing strength and delayed northward migration of the subtropical jet
Sustained intensification of the Aleutian Low induces weak tropical Pacific sea surface warming
Multi-decadal pacemaker simulations with an intermediate-complexity climate model
Replicating the Hadley cell edge and subtropical jet latitude disconnect in idealized atmospheric models
Warm conveyor belt activity over the Pacific: modulation by the Madden–Julian Oscillation and impact on tropical–extratropical teleconnections
Using regional relaxation experiments to understand the development of errors in the Asian Summer Monsoon
Understanding the dependence of mean precipitation on convective treatment and horizontal resolution in tropical aquachannel experiments
Identifying quasi-periodic variability using multivariate empirical mode decomposition: a case of the tropical Pacific
Examining the dynamics of a Borneo vortex using a balance approximation tool
Changes in the tropical upper tropospheric zonal momentum balance due to global warming
Strengthening gradients in the tropical west Pacific connect to European summer temperatures on sub-seasonal timescales
Classification of large-scale environments that drive the formation of mesoscale convective systems over southern West Africa
Validation of boreal summer tropical–extratropical causal links in seasonal forecasts
Large uncertainty in observed estimates of tropical width from the meridional stream function
The impact of the Agulhas Current system on precipitation in southern Africa in regional climate simulations covering the recent past and future
Intensity fluctuations in Hurricane Irma (2017) during a period of rapid intensification
Investigation of links between dynamical scenarios and particularly high impact of Aeolus on numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts
Can low-resolution CMIP6 ScenarioMIP models provide insight into future European post-tropical-cyclone risk?
Non-linear intensification of monsoon low-pressure systems by the BSISO
Dynamics of gap winds in the Great Rift Valley, Ethiopia: emphasis on strong winds at Lake Abaya
Metrics of the Hadley circulation strength and associated circulation trends
Characterising the interaction of tropical and extratropical air masses controlling East Asian summer monsoon progression using a novel frontal detection approach
Extreme Atlantic hurricane seasons made twice as likely by ocean warming
Synoptic processes of winter precipitation in the Upper Indus Basin
Acceleration of tropical cyclones as a proxy for extratropical interactions: synoptic-scale patterns and long-term trends
Subtle influence of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) on seasonal sea surface temperature (SST) hindcast skill in the North Atlantic
Drivers of uncertainty in future projections of Madden–Julian Oscillation teleconnections
Zonal scale and temporal variability of the Asian monsoon anticyclone in an idealised numerical model
African easterly waves in an idealized general circulation model: instability and wave packet diagnostics
How Rossby wave breaking modulates the water cycle in the North Atlantic trade wind region
The effect of seasonally and spatially varying chlorophyll on Bay of Bengal surface ocean properties and the South Asian monsoon
Dominant patterns of interaction between the tropics and mid-latitudes in boreal summer: causal relationships and the role of timescales
Abrupt transitions in an atmospheric single-column model with weak temperature gradient approximation
The American monsoon system in HadGEM3 and UKESM1
Clemens Spensberger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 659–669, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-659-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-659-2024, 2024
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It is well-established that variations in convection in the tropical Indo-Pacific can influence weather in far-away regions. In this idea, I argue that the main theory used to explain this influence over large distances is incomplete. I propose hypotheses that could lead the way towards a more fundamental explanation and outline a novel approach that could be used to test the hypotheses I raise. The suggested approach might be useful to address also other long-standing questions.
Richard J. Keane, Ankur Srivastava, and Gill M. Martin
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 671–702, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-671-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-671-2024, 2024
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We evaluate the performance of two widely used models in forecasting the Indian summer monsoon, which is one of the most challenging meteorological phenomena to simulate. The work links previous studies evaluating the use of the models in weather forecasting and climate simulation, as the focus here is on seasonal forecasting, which involves intermediate timescales. As well as being important in itself, this evaluation provides insights into how errors develop in the two modelling systems.
Kieran M. R. Hunt
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 345–356, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-345-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-345-2024, 2024
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This study investigates changes in weather systems that bring winter precipitation to south Asia. We find that these systems, known as western disturbances, are occurring more frequently and lasting longer into the summer months. This shift is leading to devastating floods, as happened recently in north India. By analysing 70 years of weather data, we trace this change to shifts in major air currents known as the subtropical jet. Due to climate change, such events are becoming more frequent.
William J. Dow, Christine M. McKenna, Manoj M. Joshi, Adam T. Blaker, Richard Rigby, and Amanda C. Maycock
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 357–367, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-357-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-357-2024, 2024
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Changes to sea surface temperatures in the extratropical North Pacific are driven partly by patterns of local atmospheric circulation, such as the Aleutian Low. We show that an intensification of the Aleutian Low could contribute to small changes in temperatures across the equatorial Pacific via the initiation of two mechanisms. The effect, although significant, is unlikely to explain fully the recently observed multi-year shift of a pattern of climate variability across the wider Pacific.
Franco Molteni, Fred Kucharski, and Riccardo Farneti
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 293–322, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-293-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-293-2024, 2024
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We describe some new features of an intermediate-complexity coupled model, including a three-layer thermodynamic ocean model suitable to explore the extratropical response to tropical ocean variability. We present results on the model climatology and show that important features of interdecadal and interannual variability are realistically simulated in a
pacemakercoupled ensemble of 70-year runs, where portions of the tropical Indo-Pacific are constrained to follow the observed variability.
Molly E. Menzel, Darryn W. Waugh, Zheng Wu, and Thomas Reichler
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 251–261, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-251-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-251-2024, 2024
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Recent work exploring the tropical atmospheric circulation response to climate change has revealed a disconnect in the latitudinal location of two features, the subtropical jet and the Hadley cell edge. Here, we investigate if the surprising result from coupled climate model and meteorological reanalysis output is consistent across model complexity.
Julian F. Quinting, Christian M. Grams, Edmund Kar-Man Chang, Stephan Pfahl, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 65–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-65-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-65-2024, 2024
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Research in the last few decades has revealed that rapidly ascending airstreams in extratropical cyclones have an important effect on the evolution of downstream weather and predictability. In this study, we show that the occurrence of these airstreams over the North Pacific is modulated by tropical convection. Depending on the modulation, known atmospheric circulation patterns evolve quite differently, which may affect extended-range predictions in the Atlantic–European region.
Gill M. Martin and Jose M. Rodriguez
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-22, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-22, 2024
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Using sensitivity experiments, we show that model errors developing in the Maritime Continent region contribute substantially to the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) circulation and rainfall errors through their effects on the Western North Pacific subtropical high-pressure region and the winds and sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Indian Ocean, exacerbated by local coupled feedback. Such information will inform future model developments aimed at improving model predictions for the ASM.
Hyunju Jung, Peter Knippertz, Yvonne Ruckstuhl, Robert Redl, Tijana Janjic, and Corinna Hoose
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 1111–1134, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1111-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1111-2023, 2023
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A narrow rainfall belt in the tropics is an important feature for large-scale circulations and the global water cycle. The accurate simulation of this rainfall feature has been a long-standing problem, with the reasons behind that unclear. We present a novel diagnostic tool that allows us to disentangle processes important for rainfall, which changes due to modifications in model. Using our diagnostic tool, one can potentially identify sources of uncertainty in weather and climate models.
Lina Boljka, Nour-Eddine Omrani, and Noel S. Keenlyside
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 1087–1109, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1087-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1087-2023, 2023
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This study examines quasi-periodic variability in the tropical Pacific on interannual timescales and related physics using a recently developed time series analysis tool. We find that wind stress in the west Pacific and recharge–discharge of ocean heat content are likely related to each other on ~1.5–4.5-year timescales (but not on others) and dominate variability in sea surface temperatures on those timescales. This may have further implications for climate models and long-term prediction.
Sam Hardy, John Methven, Juliane Schwendike, Ben Harvey, and Mike Cullen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 1019–1043, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1019-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1019-2023, 2023
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We examine a Borneo vortex case using computer simulations and satellite observations. The vortex is identified with high humidity through the atmosphere and has heaviest rainfall on its northern flank. Simulations represent circulation and rainfall accumulation well. The low-level Borneo vortex is coupled with a higher-level wave, which moves westwards along a layer with a sharp vertical gradient in moisture. Vortex growth occurs through mechanisms usually considered outside the tropics.
Abu Bakar Siddiqui Thakur and Jai Sukhatme
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2779, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2779, 2023
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We analyze the present and future states of the tropical upper troposphere. Observations and climate model simulations suggest that interactions between disparate families of waves and the mean flow maintain present-day upper-level winds, and each component undergoes complex changes due to global warming. While the net east-west flow of the atmosphere may remain unaltered, this study indicates robust changes to local circulations that may influence tropical precipitation and regional climate.
Chiem van Straaten, Dim Coumou, Kirien Whan, Bart van den Hurk, and Maurice Schmeits
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 887–903, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-887-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-887-2023, 2023
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Variability in the tropics can influence weather over Europe. This study evaluates a summertime connection between the two. It shows that strongly opposing west Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies have occurred more frequently since 1980, likely due to a combination of long-term warming in the west Pacific and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Three to six weeks later, the distribution of hot and cold airmasses over Europe is affected.
Francis Nkrumah, Cornelia Klein, Kwesi Akumenyi Quagraine, Rebecca Berkoh-Oforiwaa, Nana Ama Browne Klutse, Patrick Essien, Gandomè Mayeul Leger Davy Quenum, and Hubert Azoda Koffi
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 773–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-773-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-773-2023, 2023
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It is not yet clear which variations in broader atmospheric conditions of the West African monsoon may lead to mesoscale convective system (MCS) occurrences in southern West Africa (SWA). In this study, we identified nine different weather patterns and categorized them as dry-, transition-, or monsoon-season types using a method called self-organizing maps (SOMs). It was revealed that a warmer Sahel region can create favourable conditions for MCS formation in SWA.
Giorgia Di Capua, Dim Coumou, Bart van den Hurk, Antje Weisheimer, Andrew G. Turner, and Reik V. Donner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 701–723, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-701-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-701-2023, 2023
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Heavy rainfall in tropical regions interacts with mid-latitude circulation patterns, and this interaction can explain weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere during summer. In this analysis we detect these tropical–extratropical interaction pattern both in observational datasets and data obtained by atmospheric models and assess how well atmospheric models can reproduce the observed patterns. We find a good agreement although these relationships are weaker in model data.
Daniel Baldassare, Thomas Reichler, Piret Plink-Björklund, and Jacob Slawson
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 531–541, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-531-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-531-2023, 2023
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Using ensemble members from the ERA5 reanalysis, the most widely used method for estimating tropical-width trends, the meridional stream function, was found to have large error, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere and in the summer, because of weak gradients at the tropical edge and poor data quality. Another method, using the latitude where the surface wind switches from westerly to easterly, was found to have lower error due to better-observed data.
Nele Tim, Eduardo Zorita, Birgit Hünicke, and Ioana Ivanciu
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 381–397, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-381-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-381-2023, 2023
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As stated by the IPCC, southern Africa is one of the two land regions that are projected to suffer from the strongest precipitation reductions in the future. Simulated drying in this region is linked to the adjacent oceans, and prevailing winds as warm and moist air masses are transported towards the continent. Precipitation trends in past and future climate can be partly attributed to the strength of the Agulhas Current system, the current along the east and south coasts of southern Africa.
William Torgerson, Juliane Schwendike, Andrew Ross, and Chris J. Short
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 331–359, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-331-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-331-2023, 2023
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We investigated intensity fluctuations that occurred during the rapid intensification of Hurricane Irma (2017) to understand their effects on the storm structure. Using high-resolution model simulations, we found that the fluctuations were caused by local regions of strong ascent just outside the eyewall that disrupted the storm, leading to a larger and more symmetrical storm eye. This alters the location and intensity of the strongest winds in the storm and hence the storm's impact.
Anne Martin, Martin Weissmann, and Alexander Cress
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 249–264, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-249-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-249-2023, 2023
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Global wind profiles from the Aeolus satellite mission are an important recent substitute for the Global Observing System, showing an overall positive impact on numerical weather prediction forecasts. This study highlights atmospheric dynamic phenomena constituting pathways for significant improvement of Aeolus for future studies, including large-scale tropical circulation systems and the interaction of tropical cyclones undergoing an extratropical transition with the midlatitude waveguide.
Elliott Michael Sainsbury, Reinhard K. H. Schiemann, Kevin I. Hodges, Alexander J. Baker, Len C. Shaffrey, Kieran T. Bhatia, and Stella Bourdin
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1359–1379, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1359-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1359-2022, 2022
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Post-tropical cyclones (PTCs) can bring severe weather to Europe. By tracking and identifying PTCs in five global climate models, we investigate how the frequency and intensity of PTCs may change across Europe by 2100. We find no robust change in the frequency or intensity of Europe-impacting PTCs in the future. This study indicates that large uncertainties surround future Europe-impacting PTCs and provides a framework for evaluating PTCs in future generations of climate models.
Kieran M. R. Hunt and Andrew G. Turner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1341–1358, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1341-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1341-2022, 2022
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More than half of India's summer monsoon rainfall arises from low-pressure systems: storms originating over the Bay of Bengal. In observation-based data, we examine how the generation and pathway of these storms are changed by the
boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation– the chief means of large-scale control on the monsoon at timescales of a few weeks. Our study offers new insights for useful prediction of these storms, important for both water resources planning and disaster early warning.
Cornelius Immanuel Weiß, Alexander Gohm, Mathias Walter Rotach, and Thomas Torora Minda
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1003–1019, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1003-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1003-2022, 2022
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Two gap flow events in the Great Rift Valley in Ethiopia were investigated based on observations, ERA5 reanalysis data, and simulations with the numerical weather prediction model WRF. The main focus was on strong winds in the area around Lake Abaya since the winds may generate waves on the lake which help to sustain the lake's ecology. That is important in terms of food supply for the local population. The gap winds exhibit a diurnal cycle and a seasonal dependence.
Matic Pikovnik, Žiga Zaplotnik, Lina Boljka, and Nedjeljka Žagar
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 625–644, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-625-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-625-2022, 2022
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Potential future changes in the Hadley cells (HCs), either to their strength or their meridional extent, will profoundly impact the global distribution of precipitation. Therefore, to objectively evaluate and inter-compare past and future changes in the overall HC strength between different studies, a unified metric is required. The study proposes two new metrics, which alleviate the spatial inhomogeneities of the HC strength trend.
Ambrogio Volonté, Andrew G. Turner, Reinhard Schiemann, Pier Luigi Vidale, and Nicholas P. Klingaman
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 575–599, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-575-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-575-2022, 2022
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In this study we analyse the complex seasonal evolution of the East Asian summer monsoon. Using reanalysis data, we show the importance of the interaction between tropical and extratropical air masses converging at the monsoon front, particularly during its northward progression. The upper-level flow pattern (e.g. the westerly jet) controls the balance between the airstreams and thus the associated rainfall. This framework provides a basis for studies of extreme events and climate variability.
Peter Pfleiderer, Shruti Nath, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 471–482, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-471-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-471-2022, 2022
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Tropical cyclones are amongst the most dangerous weather events. Here we develop an empirical model that allows us to estimate the number and strengths of tropical cyclones for given atmospheric conditions and sea surface temperatures. An application of the model shows that atmospheric circulation is the dominant factor for seasonal tropical cyclone activity. However, warming sea surface temperatures have doubled the likelihood of extremely active hurricane seasons in the past decades.
Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Michael Herzog, and Cameron A. Petrie
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1187–1207, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1187-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1187-2021, 2021
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Western disturbances are mid-latitude, high-altitude, low-pressure areas that bring orographic precipitation into the Upper Indus Basin. Using statistical tools, we show that the interaction between western disturbances and relief explains the near-surface, cross-barrier wind activity. We also reveal the existence of a moisture pathway from the nearby seas. Overall, we offer a conceptual framework for western-disturbance activity, particularly in terms of precipitation.
Anantha Aiyyer and Terrell Wade
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1051–1072, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1051-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1051-2021, 2021
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We diagnose the mean circulations in the extratropics that are associated with rapid changes in the tropical storm storm speeds in the Atlantic. We show that rapid acceleration and deceleration are associated with distinct phasing between the tropical cyclone and weather waves of the extratropics. Over the past 5 decades, rapid acceleration and deceleration of tropical cyclones have reduced in magnitude. This might be related to the poleward shift and weakening of these extratropical waves.
Julianna Carvalho-Oliveira, Leonard Friedrich Borchert, Aurélie Duchez, Mikhail Dobrynin, and Johanna Baehr
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 739–757, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-739-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-739-2021, 2021
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This work questions the influence of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, an important component of the climate system, on the variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) a season ahead, particularly how this influence affects SST prediction credibility 2–4 months into the future. While we find this relationship is relevant for assessing SST predictions, it strongly depends on the time period and season we analyse and is more subtle than what is found in observations.
Andrea M. Jenney, David A. Randall, and Elizabeth A. Barnes
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 653–673, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-653-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-653-2021, 2021
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Storm activity in the tropics is one of the key phenomena that provide weather predictability on an extended timescale of about 10–40 d. The influence of tropical storminess on places like North America is sensitive to the overall average state of the climate system. In this study, we try to unpack the reasons why climate models do not agree on how the influence of these storms on weather over the North Pacific and North America will change in the future.
Philip Rupp and Peter Haynes
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 413–431, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-413-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-413-2021, 2021
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We study a range of dynamical aspects of the Asian monsoon anticyclone as the response of a simple numerical model to a steady imposed heating distribution with different background flow configurations. Particular focus is given on interactions between the monsoon anticyclone and active mid-latitude dynamics, which we find to have a zonally localising effect on the time-mean circulation and to be able to qualitatively alter the temporal variability of the bulk anticyclone.
Joshua White and Anantha Aiyyer
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 311–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-311-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-311-2021, 2021
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Using a simple general circulation model, we examine the structure of waves in the mid-tropospheric jet over North Africa. We show that waves occur in near-stationary groups or wave packets. As they are not swept out of the jet, this may provide the opportunity for the packets to amplify via feedback from other energy sources like rain-producing cloud complexes and mineral dust that are known to operate here. Our results address the criticism that the easterly jet is too short to sustain waves.
Franziska Aemisegger, Raphaela Vogel, Pascal Graf, Fabienne Dahinden, Leonie Villiger, Friedhelm Jansen, Sandrine Bony, Bjorn Stevens, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 281–309, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-281-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-281-2021, 2021
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The interaction of clouds in the trade wind region with the atmospheric flow is complex and at the heart of uncertainties associated with climate projections. In this study, a natural tracer of atmospheric circulation is used to establish a link between air originating from dry regions of the midlatitudes and the occurrence of specific cloud patterns. Two pathways involving transport within midlatitude weather systems are identified, by which air is brought into the trades within 5–10 d.
Jack Giddings, Adrian J. Matthews, Nicholas P. Klingaman, Karen J. Heywood, Manoj Joshi, and Benjamin G. M. Webber
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 635–655, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-635-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-635-2020, 2020
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The impact of chlorophyll on the southwest monsoon is unknown. Here, seasonally varying chlorophyll in the Bay of Bengal was imposed in a general circulation model coupled to an ocean mixed layer model. The SST increases by 0.5 °C in response to chlorophyll forcing and shallow mixed layer depths in coastal regions during the inter-monsoon. Precipitation increases significantly to 3 mm d-1 across Myanmar during June and over northeast India and Bangladesh during October, decreasing model bias.
Giorgia Di Capua, Jakob Runge, Reik V. Donner, Bart van den Hurk, Andrew G. Turner, Ramesh Vellore, Raghavan Krishnan, and Dim Coumou
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 519–539, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-519-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-519-2020, 2020
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We study the interactions between the tropical convective activity and the mid-latitude circulation in the Northern Hemisphere during boreal summer. We identify two circumglobal wave patterns with phase shifts corresponding to the South Asian and the western North Pacific monsoon systems at an intra-seasonal timescale. These patterns show two-way interactions in a causal framework at a weekly timescale and assess how El Niño affects these interactions.
Benjamin A. Stephens and Charles S. Jackson
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 389–404, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-389-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-389-2020, 2020
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We analyze abrupt transitions between tropical rainfall regimes in a single-column model (SCM) of the tropical atmosphere. Multiple equilibria have been observed before in SCMs, but here we analyze actual bifurcations. We attribute the transitions to a sudden loss of evaporative cooling in the lower column due to nonlinearities in microphysics. This study may have implications for atmospheric dynamics more broadly but also for understanding abrupt transitions in paleoclimate.
Jorge L. García-Franco, Lesley J. Gray, and Scott Osprey
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 349–371, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-349-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-349-2020, 2020
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The American monsoon system is the main source of rainfall for the subtropical Americas and an important element of Latin American agriculture. Here we use state-of-the-art climate models from the UK Met Office in different configurations to analyse the performance of these models in the American monsoon. Resolution is found to be a key factor to improve monsoon representation, whereas integrated chemistry does not improve the simulated monsoon rainfall.
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Short summary
Our research enhances the understanding of the complex dynamics within the West African monsoon system by analyzing the impact of specific model parameters on its characteristics. Employing surrogate models, we identified critical factors such as the entrainment rate and the fall velocity of ice. Precise definition of these parameters in weather models could improve forecast accuracy, thus enabling better strategies to manage and reduce the impact of weather events.
Our research enhances the understanding of the complex dynamics within the West African monsoon...
