Articles | Volume 5, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-511-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-511-2024
Research article
 | 
17 Apr 2024
Research article |  | 17 Apr 2024

Quantifying uncertainty in simulations of the West African monsoon with the use of surrogate models

Matthias Fischer, Peter Knippertz, Roderick van der Linden, Alexander Lemburg, Gregor Pante, Carsten Proppe, and John H. Marsham

Related authors

Surrogate-based model parameter optimization in simulations of the West African monsoon
Matthias Fischer, Peter Knippertz, and Carsten Proppe
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1984,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1984, 2024
Short summary

Related subject area

Dynamical processes in the tropics, incl. tropical–extratropical interactions
Spatial and temporal variability of the freezing level in Patagonia's atmosphere
Nicolás García-Lee, Claudio Bravo, Álvaro Gónzalez-Reyes, and Piero Mardones
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1137–1151, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1137-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1137-2024, 2024
Short summary
Tropical cyclone asymmetric eyewall evolution and intensification in a two-layer model
Ting-Yu Cha and Michael M. Bell
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1013–1029, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1013-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1013-2024, 2024
Short summary
Role of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on Alleviating Biases in the Semi-Annual Oscillation
Aleena Moolakkunnel Jaison, Lesley J. Gray, Scott M. Osprey, Jeff R. Knight, and Martin B. Andrews
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1818,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1818, 2024
Short summary
Changes in the tropical upper-tropospheric zonal momentum balance due to global warming
Abu Bakar Siddiqui Thakur and Jai Sukhatme
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 839–862, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-839-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-839-2024, 2024
Short summary
Using regional relaxation experiments to understand the development of errors in the Asian summer monsoon
Gill M. Martin and José M. Rodríguez
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 711–731, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-711-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-711-2024, 2024
Short summary

Cited articles

Agustí-Panareda, A., Beljaars, A., Cardinali, C., Genkova, I., and Thorncroft, C.: Impacts of Assimilating AMMA Soundings on ECMWF Analyses and Forecasts, Weather Forecast., 25, 1142–1160, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010waf2222370.1, 2010. a
Brierley, C. M., Zhao, A., Harrison, S. P., Braconnot, P., Williams, C. J. R., Thornalley, D. J. R., Shi, X., Peterschmitt, J.-Y., Ohgaito, R., Kaufman, D. S., Kageyama, M., Hargreaves, J. C., Erb, M. P., Emile-Geay, J., D'Agostino, R., Chandan, D., Carré, M., Bartlein, P. J., Zheng, W., Zhang, Z., Zhang, Q., Yang, H., Volodin, E. M., Tomas, R. A., Routson, C., Peltier, W. R., Otto-Bliesner, B., Morozova, P. A., McKay, N. P., Lohmann, G., Legrande, A. N., Guo, C., Cao, J., Brady, E., Annan, J. D., and Abe-Ouchi, A.: Large-scale features and evaluation of the PMIP4-CMIP6 midHolocene simulations, Clim. Past, 16, 1847–1872, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, 2020. a
Burpee, R. W.: The Origin and Structure of Easterly Waves in the Lower Troposphere of North Africa, J. Atmos. Sci., 29, 77–90, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1972)029<0077:toasoe>2.0.co;2, 1972. a
Cheng, K., Lu, Z., Ling, C., and Zhou, S.: Surrogate-assisted global sensitivity analysis: an overview, Struct. Multidiscip. Optimiz., 61, 1187–1213, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00158-019-02413-5, 2020. a, b
Claussen, M., Dallmeyer, A., and Bader, J.: Theory and Modeling of the African Humid Period and the Green Sahara, in: Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science, Oxford University Press, https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.532, 2017. a
Download
Short summary
Our research enhances the understanding of the complex dynamics within the West African monsoon system by analyzing the impact of specific model parameters on its characteristics. Employing surrogate models, we identified critical factors such as the entrainment rate and the fall velocity of ice. Precise definition of these parameters in weather models could improve forecast accuracy, thus enabling better strategies to manage and reduce the impact of weather events.