Articles | Volume 2, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1131-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1131-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
01 Dec 2021
Research article |
| 01 Dec 2021
| 01 Dec 2021
Dynamical drivers of Greenland blocking in climate models
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Erica Madonna
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Clemens Spensberger
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Camille Li
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Stephen Outten
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Related authors
Ashbin Jaison, Asgeir Sorteberg, Clio Michel, and Øyvind Breivik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1341–1355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The present study uses daily insurance losses and wind speeds to fit storm damage functions at the municipality level of Norway. The results show that the damage functions accurately estimate losses associated with extreme damaging events and can reconstruct their spatial patterns. However, there is no single damage function that performs better than another. A newly devised damage–no-damage classifier shows some skill in predicting extreme damaging events.
Ashbin Jaison, Asgeir Sorteberg, Clio Michel, and Øyvind Breivik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-90, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-90, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
The benefits of establishing wind storm damage relationships are twofold: 1) forecasting losses and 2) assessment of the damages post event. The present study uses the daily insurance losses and wind speeds to fit storm damage functions at the municipality level of Norway. The results show that the damage functions accurately estimate losses associated with extreme damaging events and can reconstruct their spatial patterns in the complex terrain of Norway.
Joshua Oldham-Dorrington, Camille Li, Stefan Sobolowski, and Robin Guillaume-Castel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4977, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4977, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The future of heavy precipitation in Europe is uncertain, and current precipitation can be poorly represented in climate models. To understand model heavy precipitation better we break it into two steps: firstly, do weather patterns that favour precipitation occur? Secondly, does heavy precipitation occur under those weather patterns. By doing so, we are able to better understand model biases and forced changes which can make current climate models more useful and easier to improve.
Lise Seland Graff, Jerry Tjiputra, Ada Gjermundsen, Andreas Born, Jens Boldingh Debernard, Heiko Goelzer, Yan-Chun He, Petra Margaretha Langebroek, Aleksi Nummelin, Dirk Olivié, Øyvind Seland, Trude Storelvmo, Mats Bentsen, Chuncheng Guo, Andrea Rosendahl, Dandan Tao, Thomas Toniazzo, Camille Li, Stephen Outten, and Michael Schulz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1671–1698, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1671-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1671-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The magnitude of future Arctic amplification is highly uncertain. Using the Norwegian Earth System Model, we explore the effect of improving the representation of clouds, ocean eddies, the Greenland ice sheet, sea ice, and ozone on the projected Arctic winter warming in a coordinated experiment set. These improvements all lead to enhanced projected Arctic warming, with the largest changes found in the sea ice retreat regions and the largest uncertainty found on the Atlantic side.
Clemens Spensberger, Kjersti Konstali, and Thomas Spengler
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 431–446, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-431-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-431-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The transport of moisture from warmer and moister to colder and drier regions mainly occurs in brief and narrow bursts. In the mid-latitudes, such bursts are generally referred to as atmospheric rivers; in the Arctic they are often referred to as warm moist intrusions. We introduce a new definition to identify such bursts which is based primarily on their elongated structure. With this more general definition, we show that bursts in moisture transport occur frequently across all climate zones.
Henrik Auestad, Clemens Spensberger, Andrea Marcheggiani, Paulo Ceppi, Thomas Spengler, and Tim Woollings
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1269–1286, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1269-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1269-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Latent heating due to condensation can influence atmospheric circulation by strengthening or weakening horizontal temperature contrasts. Strong temperature contrasts intensify storms and imply the existence of strong upper tropospheric winds called jets. It remains unclear whether latent heating preferentially reinforces or abates the existing jet. We show that this disagreement is attributable to how the jet is defined, confirming that latent heating reinforces the jet.
Peter Yu Feng Siew, Camille Li, Stefan Pieter Sobolowski, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, and Mingfang Ting
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 985–996, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-985-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-985-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The atmospheric circulation response to surface heating at various latitudes was investigated within an idealized framework. We confirm previous results on the importance of temperature advection for balancing heating at lower latitudes. Further poleward, transient eddies become increasingly important, and eventually radiative cooling also contributes. This promotes amplified surface warming for high-latitude heating and has implications for links between sea ice loss and polar amplification.
Stephen Outten and Richard Davy
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 753–762, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-753-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-753-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The North Atlantic Oscillation is linked to wintertime weather events over Europe. One feature often overlooked is how much the climate variability explained by the NAO has changed over time. We show that there has been a considerable increase in the percentage variance explained by the NAO over the 20th century and that this is not reproduced by 50 CMIP6 climate models, which are generally biased too high. This has implications for projections and prediction of weather events in the region.
Clemens Spensberger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 659–669, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-659-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-659-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
It is well-established that variations in convection in the tropical Indo-Pacific can influence weather in far-away regions. In this idea, I argue that the main theory used to explain this influence over large distances is incomplete. I propose hypotheses that could lead the way towards a more fundamental explanation and outline a novel approach that could be used to test the hypotheses I raise. The suggested approach might be useful to address also other long-standing questions.
Ashbin Jaison, Asgeir Sorteberg, Clio Michel, and Øyvind Breivik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1341–1355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The present study uses daily insurance losses and wind speeds to fit storm damage functions at the municipality level of Norway. The results show that the damage functions accurately estimate losses associated with extreme damaging events and can reconstruct their spatial patterns. However, there is no single damage function that performs better than another. A newly devised damage–no-damage classifier shows some skill in predicting extreme damaging events.
Ashbin Jaison, Asgeir Sorteberg, Clio Michel, and Øyvind Breivik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-90, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-90, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
The benefits of establishing wind storm damage relationships are twofold: 1) forecasting losses and 2) assessment of the damages post event. The present study uses the daily insurance losses and wind speeds to fit storm damage functions at the municipality level of Norway. The results show that the damage functions accurately estimate losses associated with extreme damaging events and can reconstruct their spatial patterns in the complex terrain of Norway.
Bjørg Risebrobakken, Mari F. Jensen, Helene R. Langehaug, Tor Eldevik, Anne Britt Sandø, Camille Li, Andreas Born, Erin Louise McClymont, Ulrich Salzmann, and Stijn De Schepper
Clim. Past, 19, 1101–1123, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1101-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1101-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In the observational period, spatially coherent sea surface temperatures characterize the northern North Atlantic at multidecadal timescales. We show that spatially non-coherent temperature patterns are seen both in further projections and a past warm climate period with a CO2 level comparable to the future low-emission scenario. Buoyancy forcing is shown to be important for northern North Atlantic temperature patterns.
Stephen Outten, Camille Li, Martin P. King, Lingling Suo, Peter Y. F. Siew, Hoffman Cheung, Richard Davy, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Tore Furevik, Shengping He, Erica Madonna, Stefan Sobolowski, Thomas Spengler, and Tim Woollings
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 95–114, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-95-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-95-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Strong disagreement exists in the scientific community over the role of Arctic sea ice in shaping wintertime Eurasian cooling. The observed Eurasian cooling can arise naturally without sea-ice loss but is expected to be a rare event. We propose a framework that incorporates sea-ice retreat and natural variability as contributing factors. A helpful analogy is of a dice roll that may result in cooling, warming, or anything in between, with sea-ice loss acting to load the dice in favour of cooling.
Tim Woollings, Camille Li, Marie Drouard, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Karim A. Elmestekawy, Momme Hell, Brian Hoskins, Cheikh Mbengue, Matthew Patterson, and Thomas Spengler
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 61–80, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-61-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-61-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper investigates large-scale atmospheric variability in polar regions, specifically the balance between large-scale turbulence and Rossby wave activity. The polar regions are relatively more dominated by turbulence than lower latitudes, but Rossby waves are found to play a role and can even be triggered from high latitudes under certain conditions. Features such as cyclone lifetimes, high-latitude blocks, and annular modes are discussed from this perspective.
Clemens Spensberger, Trond Thorsteinsson, and Thomas Spengler
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2711–2729, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2711-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2711-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In order to understand the atmosphere, we rely on a hierarchy of models ranging from very simple to very complex. Comparing different steps in this hierarchy usually entails comparing different models. Here we combine two such steps that are commonly used in one modelling framework. This makes comparisons both much easier and much more direct.
Leonidas Tsopouridis, Thomas Spengler, and Clemens Spensberger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 953–970, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-953-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-953-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Comparing simulations with realistic and smoothed SSTs, we find that the intensification of individual cyclones in the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio regions is only marginally affected by reducing the SST gradient. In contrast, we observe a reduced cyclone activity and a shift in storm tracks. Considering differences of the variables occurring within/outside of a radius of any cyclone, we find cyclones to play only a secondary role in explaining the mean states differences among the SST experiments.
Erica Madonna, David S. Battisti, Camille Li, and Rachel H. White
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 777–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-777-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-777-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The amount of precipitation over Europe varies substantially from year to year, with impacts on crop yields and energy production. In this study, we show that it is possible to infer much of the winter precipitation and temperature signal over Europe by knowing only the frequency of occurrence of certain atmospheric circulation patterns. The results highlight the importance of (daily) weather for understanding and interpreting seasonal signals.
Martin P. King, Camille Li, and Stefan Sobolowski
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 759–776, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-759-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-759-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We re-examine the uncertainty of ENSO teleconnection to the North Atlantic by considering the November–December and January–February months in the cold season, in addition to the conventional DJF months. This is motivated by previous studies reporting varying teleconnected atmospheric anomalies and the mechanisms concerned. Our results indicate an improved confidence in the patterns of the teleconnection. The finding may also have implications on research in predictability and climate impact.
Gabriele Messori, Nili Harnik, Erica Madonna, Orli Lachmy, and Davide Faranda
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 233–251, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-233-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-233-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric jets are a key component of the climate system and of our everyday lives. Indeed, they affect human activities by influencing the weather in many mid-latitude regions. However, we still lack a complete understanding of their dynamical properties. In this study, we try to relate the understanding gained in idealized computer simulations of the jets to our knowledge from observations of the real atmosphere.
Øyvind Seland, Mats Bentsen, Dirk Olivié, Thomas Toniazzo, Ada Gjermundsen, Lise Seland Graff, Jens Boldingh Debernard, Alok Kumar Gupta, Yan-Chun He, Alf Kirkevåg, Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, Kjetil Schanke Aas, Ingo Bethke, Yuanchao Fan, Jan Griesfeller, Alf Grini, Chuncheng Guo, Mehmet Ilicak, Inger Helene Hafsahl Karset, Oskar Landgren, Johan Liakka, Kine Onsum Moseid, Aleksi Nummelin, Clemens Spensberger, Hui Tang, Zhongshi Zhang, Christoph Heinze, Trond Iversen, and Michael Schulz
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6165–6200, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6165-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6165-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The second version of the coupled Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM2) is presented and evaluated. The temperature and precipitation patterns has improved compared to NorESM1. The model reaches present-day warming levels to within 0.2 °C of observed temperature but with a delayed warming during the late 20th century. Under the four scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), the warming in the period of 2090–2099 compared to 1850–1879 reaches 1.3, 2.2, 3.1, and 3.9 K.
Emily Gleeson, Stephen Outten, Bjørg Jenny Kokkvoll Engdahl, Eoin Whelan, Ulf Andrae, and Laura Rontu
Adv. Sci. Res., 17, 255–267, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-255-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-255-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The single-column version of the shared ALADIN-HIRLAM numerical weather prediction system, called MUSC, was developed by Météo-France in the 2000s and has a growing user-base. Tools to derive the required input, to run experiments and to handle outputs have been developed within the HARMONIE-AROME configuration of the ALADIN-HIRLAM system. We also illustrate the usefulness of MUSC for testing and developing physical parametrizations related to cloud microphysics and radiative transfer.
Cited articles
Altenhoff, A. M., Martius, O., Croci-Maspoli, M., Schwierz, C., and Davies,
H. C.: Linkage of atmospheric blocks and synoptic-scale Rossby waves: A
climatological analysis, Tellus A, 60, 1053–1063,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2008.00354.x, 2008. a, b, c
Anstey, J. A., Davini, P., Gray, L. J., Woollings, T. J., Butchart, N.,
Cagnazzo, C., Christiansen, B., Hardiman, S. C., Osprey, S. M., and Yang, S.: Multi-model analysis of Northern Hemisphere winter blocking: Model biases and the role of resolution, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 3956–3971, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50231, 2013. a, b, c, d
Barnes, E. A. and Hartmann, D. L.: Influence of eddy‐driven jet latitude on
North Atlantic jet persistence and blocking frequency in CMIP3
integrations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L23802, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL045700, 2010. a
Barnes, E. A. and Hartmann, D. L.: Rossby wave scales, propagation, and the
variability of eddy-driven jets, J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 2893–2908,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-11-039.1, 2011. a
Barnes, E. A. and Hartmann, D. L.: Detection of Rossby wave breaking and its response to shifts of the midlatitude jet with climate change, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 117, D09117, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD017469, 2012. a, b
Barnes, E. A. and Polvani, L.: Response of the midlatitude jets, and of their
variability, to increased greenhouse gases in the CMIP5 models, J.
Climate, 26, 7117–7135, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00536.1, 2013. a, b
Barnes, E. A., Slingo, J., and Woollings, T.: A methodology for the comparison of blocking climatologies across indices, models and climate scenarios, Climate Dyn., 38, 2467–2481, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1243-6, 2012. a
Béguin, A., Martius, O., Sprenger, M., Spichtinger, P., Folini, D., and
Wernli, H.: Tropopause level Rossby wave breaking in the Northern
Hemisphere: a feature-based validation of the ECHAM5-HAM climate model,
Int. J. Climatol., 33, 3073–3082, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3631, 2013. a
Berckmans, J., Woollings, T., Demory, M.-E., Vidale, P.-L., and Roberts, M.:
Atmospheric blocking in a high resolution climate model: influences of mean
state, orography and eddy forcing, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 14, 34–40,
https://doi.org/10.1002/asl2.412, 2013. a
Brunner, L., Hegerl, G. C., and Steiner, A. K.: Connecting atmospheric blocking to European temperature extremes in spring, J. Climate, 30, 585–594, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0518.1, 2017. a
Chen, X. and Luo, D.: Arctic sea ice decline and continental cold anomalies:
Upstream and downstream effects of Greenland blocking, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 3411–3419, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL072387, 2017. a, b
Christidis, N. and Stott, P. A.: Changes in the geopotential height at 500 hPa under the influence of external climatic forcings, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 10798–10806, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066669, 2015. a
Collins M., Sutherland, M., Bouwer, L., Cheong, S.-M., Frölicher, T., Jacot Des Combes, H., Koll Roxy, M., Losada, I., McInnes, K., Ratter, B., Rivera-Arriaga, E., Susanto, R. D., Swingedouw, D., and Tibig, L.: Extremes, Abrupt Changes and Managing Risk, in: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, edited by: Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D.C., Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E., Mintenbeck, K., Alegría, A., Nicolai, M., Okem, A., Petzold, J., Rama, B., and Weyer, N. M., in press, 2021. a
Davini, P. and D’Andrea, F.: Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking
representation in global climate models: Twenty years of improvements?, J.
Climate, 29, 8823–8840, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0242.1, 2016. a, b, c, d
Davini, P., Cagnazzo, C., Gualdi, S., and Navarra, A.: Bidimensional
Diagnostics, Variability, and Trends of Northern Hemisphere Blocking, J. Climate, 25, 6496–6509, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00032.1, 2012. a, b
Davini, P., Cagnazzo, C., Fogli, P. G., Manzini, E., Gualdi, S., and Navarra,
A.: European blocking and Atlantic jet stream variability in the NCEP/NCAR
reanalysis and the CMCC-CMS climate model, Clim. Dynam., 43, 71–85,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1873-y, 2014. a, b, c
Davini, P., Corti, S., D'Andrea, F., Rivière, G., and von Hardenberg, J.:
Improved winter European atmospheric blocking frequencies in
high-resolution global climate simulations, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 9,
2615–2634, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017MS001082, 2017. a, b, c, d
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J.-J., Park, B.-K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J.-N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data
assimilation system, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011. a
Dole, R. M. and Gordon, N. D.: Persistent anomalies of the extratropical
Northern Hemisphere wintertime circulation: Geographical distribution and
regional persistence characteristics, Mon. Weather Rev., 111, 1567–1586,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1983)111<1567:PAOTEN>2.0.CO;2, 1983. a
Drouard, M., Woollings, T., Sexton, D. M. H., and McSweeney, C. F.: Dynamical
differences between short and long blocks in the Northern Hemisphere, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 126, e2020JD034082, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD034082,
2021. a, b
Dunn-Sigouin, E. and Son, S.-W.: Northern Hemisphere blocking frequency and
duration in the CMIP5 models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 1179–1188,
https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50143, 2013. a, b, c
ECMWF: ERA Interim, Daily, ECMWF [data set], available at: https://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/interim-full-daily/levtype=pl/, last access: 3 November 2021. a
Eichelberger, S. J. and Hartmann, D. L.: Northern Hemisphere blocking frequency and duration in the CMIP5 models, J. Climate, 20, 5149–5163,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4279.1, 2007. a
Fettweis, X., Hanna, E., Lang, C., Belleflamme, A., Erpicum, M., and Gallée, H.: Brief communication “Important role of the mid-tropospheric atmospheric circulation in the recent surface melt increase over the Greenland ice sheet”, The Cryosphere, 7, 241–248, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-241-2013, 2013. a
Hanna, E., Cappelen, J., Fettweis, X., Mernild, S. H., Mote, T. L., Mottram,
R., Steffen, K., Ballinger, T. J., and Hall, R. J.: Greenland surface air
temperature changes from 1981 to 2019 and implications for ice-sheet melt and mass-balance change, Int. J. Climatol., 41, E1336–E1352,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6771, 2021. a
Harvey, B., Shaffrey, L., and Woollings, T.: Equator-to-pole temperature
differences and the extra-tropical storm track responses of the CMIP5 climate models, Clim. Dynam., 43, 1171–1182, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1883-9, 2014. a, b
Harvey, B., Cook, P., Shaffrey, L., and Schiemann, R.: The Response of the
Northern Hemisphere Storm Tracks and Jet Streams to Climate Change in the
CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 Climate Models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 125, e2020JD032701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD032701, 2020. a
Hermann, M., Papritz, L., and Wernli, H.: A Lagrangian analysis of the dynamical and thermodynamic drivers of large-scale Greenland melt events during 1979–2017, Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 497–518, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-497-2020, 2020. a
IPCC: Summary for policymakers, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2013. a
Iqbal, W., Leung, W.-N., and Hannachi, A.: Analysis of the variability of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream in CMIP5, Clim. Dynam., 51, 235–247, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3917-1, 2018. a
Kidston, J. and Gerber, E.: Intermodel variability of the poleward shift of the austral jet stream in the CMIP3 integrations linked to biases in 20th century climatology, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L09708, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL042873, 2010. a
Kwon, Y.-O., Camacho, A., Martinez, C., and Seo, H.: North Atlantic winter
eddy-driven jet and atmospheric blocking variability in the Community Earth
System Model version 1 Large Ensemble simulations, Clim. Dynam., 51,
3275–3289, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4078-6, 2018. a, b, c
Li, C. and Wettstein, J. J.: Thermally Driven and Eddy-Driven Jet Variability
in Reanalysis, J. Climate, 25, 1587–1596, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00145.1,
2012. a
Li, C., Michel, C., Seland Graff, L., Bethke, I., Zappa, G., Bracegirdle, T. J., Fischer, E., Harvey, B. J., Iversen, T., King, M. P., Krishnan, H., Lierhammer, L., Mitchell, D., Scinocca, J., Shiogama, H., Stone, D. A., and Wettstein, J. J.: Midlatitude atmospheric circulation responses under 1.5 and 2.0 ∘C warming and implications for regional impacts, Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 359–382, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-359-2018, 2018. a, b
Luo, D., Zhang, W., Zhong, L., and Dai, A.: A nonlinear theory of atmospheric
blocking: A potential vorticity gradient view, J. Atmos. Sci., 76,
2399–2427, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-18-0324.1, 2019. a
Lupo, A. R. and Smith, P. J.: Climatological features of blocking anticyclones in the Northern Hemisphere, Tellus A, 47, 439–456,
https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1995.t01-3-00004.x, 1995. a
Madonna, E., Li, C., Grams, C. M., and Woollings, T.: The link between eddy-driven jet variability and weather regimes in the North
Atlantic-European sector, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 143, 2960–2972,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3155, 2017. a
Madonna, E., Li, C., and Wettstein, J. J.: Suppressed eddy driving during
southward excursions of the North Atlantic jet on synoptic to seasonal time scales, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 20, e937, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.937, 2019. a
Martius, O., Schwierz, C., and Davies, H. C.: Breaking Waves at the Tropopause in the Wintertime Northern Hemisphere: Climatological Analyses of the Orientation and the Theoretical LC1/2 Classification, J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 2576–2592, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS3977.1, 2007. a
Masato, G., Hoskins, B., and Woollings, T. J.: Wave-breaking characteristics of midlatitude blocking, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 138, 1285–1296,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.990, 2012. a, b
Matsueda, M. and Endo, H.: The robustness of future changes in Northern
Hemisphere blocking: A large ensemble projection with multiple sea
surface temperature patterns, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 5158–5166,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073336, 2017. a
McLeod, J. T. and Mote, T. L.: Assessing the role of precursor cyclones on the
formation of extreme Greenland blocking episodes and their impact on summer
melting across the Greenland ice sheet, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120,
12357–12377, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023945, 2015. a
Mitchell, D., AchutaRao, K., Allen, M., Bethke, I., Beyerle, U., Ciavarella, A., Forster, P. M., Fuglestvedt, J., Gillett, N., Haustein, K., Ingram, W., Iversen, T., Kharin, V., Klingaman, N., Massey, N., Fischer, E., Schleussner, C.-F., Scinocca, J., Seland, Ø., Shiogama, H., Shuckburgh, E., Sparrow, S., Stone, D., Uhe, P., Wallom, D., Wehner, M., and Zaaboul, R.: Half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI): background and experimental design, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 571–583, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-571-2017, 2017. a, b, c
Nakamura, H. and Wallace, J. M.: Synoptic behavior of baroclinic eddies during the blocking onset, Mon. Weather Rev., 121, 1892–1903, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1993)121<1892:SBOBED>2.0.CO;2, 1993. a
National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center: C20C+ Detection and Attribution Project, HAPPI, National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center [data set], https://portal.nersc.gov/c20c/data.html (last access: 3 November 2021). a
Neu, U., Akperov, M. G., Bellenbaum, N., Benestad, R., Blender, R., Caballero, R., Cocozza, A., Dacre, H. F., Feng, Y., Fraedrich, K., Grieger, J., Gulev, S., Hanley, J., Hewson, T., Inatsu, M., Keay, K., Kew, S. F., Kindem, I., Leckebusch, G. C., Liberato, M. L. R., Lionello, P., Mokhov, I. I., Pinto, J. G., Raible, C. C., Reale, M., Rudeva, I., Schuster, M., Simmonds, I., Sinclair, M., Sprenger, M., Tilinina, N. D., Trigo, I. F., Ulbrich, S., Ulbrich, U., Wang, X. L., and Wernli, H.: IMILAST: A Community Effort to Intercompare Extratropical Cyclone Detection and Tracking Algorithms, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, 529–547, https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-11-00154.1, 2013. a
Pelly, J. L. and Hoskins, B. J.: A new perspective on blocking, J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 743–755, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2003)060<0743:ANPOB>2.0.CO;2, 2003. a, b
Pfahl, S. and Wernli, H.: Quantifying the relevance of atmospheric blocking for co-located temperature extremes in the Northern Hemisphere on (sub-)daily time scales, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L12807, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052261, 2012. a
Pfahl, S., Schwierz, C., Croci-Maspoli, M., Grams, C. M., and Wernli, H.:
Importance of latent heat release in ascending air streams for atmospheric
blocking, Nat. Geosci., 8, 610–614, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2487, 2015. a
Pithan, F., Shepherd, T. G., Zappa, G., and Sandu, I.: Climate model biases in jet streams, blocking and storm tracks resulting from missing orographic
drag, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 7231–7240, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069551,
2016. a
Rex, D. F.: Blocking action in the middle troposphere and its effect upon
regional climate, Tellus, 2, 275–301,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1950.tb00331.x, 1950. a
Rivière, G.: Effect of latitudinal variations in low-level baroclinicity on eddy life cycles and upper-tropospheric wave-breaking processes, J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 1569–1592, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JAS2919.1, 2009. a
Rivière, G.: A dynamical interpretation of the poleward shift of the jet
streams in global warming scenarios, J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 1253–1272,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JAS3641.1, 2011. a
Rivière, G. and Orlanski, I.: Characteristics of the Atlantic storm-track eddy activity and its relation with the North Atlantic Oscillation, J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 241–266, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS3850.1, 2007. a
Scaife, A. A., Woollings, T., Knight, J., Martin, G., and Hinton, T.:
Atmospheric blocking and mean biases in climate models, J. Climate, 23,
6143–6152, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3728.1, 2010. a, b
Schaller, N., Sillmann, J., Anstey, J., Fischer, E. M., Grams, C. M., and
Russo, S.: Influence of blocking on Northern European and Western Russian
heatwaves in large climate model ensembles, Environ. Res. Lett., 13,
054015, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaba55, 2018. a
Scherrer, S. C., Croci-Maspoli, M., Schwierz, C., and Appenzeller, C.:
Two–dimensional indices of atmospheric blocking and their statistical relationship with winter climate patterns in the Euro-Atlantic region, Int. J. Climatol., 26, 233–249, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1250, 2006. a, b, c
Schiemann, R., Demory, M.-E., Shaffrey, L. C., Strachan, J., Vidale, P. L.,
Mizielinski, M. S., Roberts, M. J., Matsueda, M., Wehner, M. F., and Jung,
T.: The resolution sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere blocking in four 25 km atmospheric global circulation models, J. Climate, 30, 337–358,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0100.1, 2017. a
Schiemann, R., Athanasiadis, P., Barriopedro, D., Doblas-Reyes, F., Lohmann, K., Roberts, M. J., Sein, D. V., Roberts, C. D., Terray, L., and Vidale, P. L.: Northern Hemisphere blocking simulation in current climate models: evaluating progress from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 to 6 and sensitivity to resolution, Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 277–292, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-277-2020, 2020. a, b, c
Shaw, T., Baldwin, M., Barnes, E. A., Caballero, R., Garfinkel, C., Hwang, Y.-T., Li, C., O’Gorman, P., Rivière, G., Simpson, I., and Voigt, A.: Storm track processes and the opposing influences of climate change, Nat. Geosci., 9, 656–664, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2783, 2016. a
Sillmann, J. and Croci-Maspoli, M.: Present and future atmospheric blocking and its impact on European mean and extreme climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L10702, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL038259, 2009. a, b, c
Spensberger, C.: Dynlib: A library of diagnostics, feature detection
algorithms, plotting and convenience functions for dynamic meteorology, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4639624, 2021. a
Spensberger, C. and Spengler, T.: A New Look at Deformation as a Diagnostic for Large-Scale Flow, J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 4221–4234,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-14-0108.1, 2014. a, b
Sprenger, M., Fragkoulidis, G., Binder, H., Croci-Maspoli, M., Graf, P., Grams, C. M., Knippertz, P., Madonna, E., Schemm, S., Škerlak, B., and Wernli, H.: Global Climatologies of Eulerian and Lagrangian Flow Features based on ERA-Interim, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 98, 1739–1748,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00299.1, 2017. a, b
Steinfeld, D. and Pfahl, S.: The role of latent heating in atmospheric blocking dynamics: a global climatology, Clim. Dynam., 53, 6159–6180,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04919-6, 2019. a
Swenson, E. T. and Straus, D. M.: Rossby wave breaking and transient eddy
forcing during Euro-Atlantic circulation regimes, J. Atmos. Sci., 74,
1735–1755, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-16-0263.1, 2017. a, b
Thorncroft, C., Hoskins, B., and McIntyre, M.: Two paradigms of baroclinic-wave life-cycle behaviour, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 119, 17–55, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49711950903, 1993.
a
Tibaldi, S. and Molteni, F.: On the operational predictability of blocking,
Tellus A, 42, 343–365, https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1990.t01-2-00003.x, 1990. a, b
Treidl, R., Birch, E., and Sajecki, P.: Blocking action in the Northern
Hemisphere: A climatological study, Atmos.-Ocean, 19, 1–23,
https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.1981.9649096, 1981. a, b
Trigo, R., Trigo, I., DaCamara, C., and Osborn, T.: Climate impact of the
European winter blocking episodes from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalyses, Clim.
Dynam., 23, 17–28, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-004-0410-4, 2004. a
Tyrlis, E. and Hoskins, B.: The morphology of Northern Hemisphere blocking,
J. Atmos. Sci., 65, 1653–1665, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JAS2338.1, 2008. a
Tyrlis, E., Bader, J., Manzini, E., and Matei, D.: Reconciling different
methods of high-latitude blocking detection, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 147, 1–27, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3960, 2020. a
van den Broeke, M. R., Enderlin, E. M., Howat, I. M., Kuipers Munneke, P., Noël, B. P. Y., van de Berg, W. J., van Meijgaard, E., and Wouters, B.: On the recent contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea level change, The Cryosphere, 10, 1933–1946, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1933-2016, 2016. a
Vial, J. and Osborn, T. J.: Assessment of atmosphere-ocean general circulation model simulations of winter northern hemisphere atmospheric blocking, Clim. Dynam., 39, 95–112, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1177-z, 2012. a, b, c
Wachowicz, L. J., Preece, J. R., Mote, T. L., Barrett, B. S., and Henderson,
G. R.: Historical trends of seasonal Greenland blocking under different
blocking metrics, Int. J. Climatol., 41, E3263–E32782507,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6923, 2020. a, b
Ward, J. L., Flanner, M. G., and Dunn‐Sigouin, E.: Impacts of Greenland
block location on clouds and surface energy fluxes over the Greenland Ice Sheet, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 125, e2020JD033172,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033172, 2020. a
Wernli, H. and Schwierz, C.: Surface cyclones in the ERA40 dataset (1958–2001). Part I: Novel identification method and global climatology, J.
Atmos. Sci., 63, 2486–2507, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS3766.1, 2006. a
Woollings, T., Hoskins, B., Blackburn, M., and Berrisford, P.: A new Rossby
wave–breaking interpretation of the North Atlantic Oscillation, J. Atmos. Sci., 65, 609–626, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JAS2347.1, 2008. a, b, c
Woollings, T., Hannachi, A., and Hoskins, B.: Variability of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 136, 856–868,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.625, 2010. a, b
Yin, J. H.: A consistent poleward shift of the storm tracks in simulations of
21st century climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L18701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023684, 2005. a
Short summary
Climate models still struggle to correctly represent blocking frequency over the North Atlantic–European domain. This study makes use of five large ensembles of climate simulations and the ERA-Interim reanalyses to investigate the Greenland blocking frequency and one of its drivers, namely cyclonic Rossby wave breaking. We particularly try to understand the discrepancies between two specific models, out of the five, that behave differently.
Climate models still struggle to correctly represent blocking frequency over the North...
