Articles | Volume 2, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1187-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1187-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
07 Dec 2021
Research article |
| 07 Dec 2021
| 07 Dec 2021
Synoptic processes of winter precipitation in the Upper Indus Basin
Jean-Philippe Baudouin
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Environmental Physics, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
Michael Herzog
Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
Cameron A. Petrie
Department of Archaeology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
Related authors
Elisa Ziegler, Nils Weitzel, Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Lauren Gregoire, Ruza Ivanovic, Paul J. Valdes, Christian Wirths, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 21, 627–659, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-627-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-627-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
During the Last Deglaciation, global surface temperature rose by about 4–7 °C over several millennia. We show that changes in year-to-year up to century-to-century fluctuations of temperature and precipitation during the Deglaciation were mostly larger than during either the preceding or succeeding more stable periods in 15 climate model simulations. The analysis demonstrates how ice sheets, meltwater, and volcanism influence simulated variability to inform future simulation protocols.
Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Nils Weitzel, Maximilian May, Lukas Jonkers, Andrew M. Dolman, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 21, 381–403, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-381-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-381-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Earth's past temperature reconstructions are critical for understanding climate change. We test the ability of these reconstructions using climate simulations. Uncertainties, mainly from past temperature measurement methods and age determination, impact reconstructions over time. While more data enhance accuracy for long-term trends, high-quality data are more important for short-term precision. Our study lays the groundwork for better reconstructions and suggests avenues for improvement.
Kieran M. R. Hunt, Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Andrew G. Turner, A. P. Dimri, Ghulam Jeelani, Pooja, Rajib Chattopadhyay, Forest Cannon, T. Arulalan, M. S. Shekhar, T. P. Sabin, and Eliza Palazzi
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 43–112, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-43-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-43-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Western disturbances (WDs) are storms that predominantly affect north India and Pakistan during the winter months, where they play an important role in regional water security, but can also bring a range of natural hazards. In this review, we summarise recent literature across a range of topics: their structure and lifecycle, precipitation and impacts, interactions with large-scale weather patterns, representation in models, how well they are forecast, and their response to changes in climate.
Nils Weitzel, Heather Andres, Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Lukas Jonkers, Oliver Bothe, Elisa Ziegler, Thomas Kleinen, André Paul, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 20, 865–890, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-865-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-865-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The ability of climate models to faithfully reproduce past warming episodes is a valuable test considering potentially large future warming. We develop a new method to compare simulations of the last deglaciation with temperature reconstructions. We find that reconstructions differ more between regions than simulations, potentially due to deficiencies in the simulation design, models, or reconstructions. Our work is a promising step towards benchmarking simulations of past climate transitions.
Manuel Chevalier, Anne Dallmeyer, Nils Weitzel, Chenzhi Li, Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Ulrike Herzschuh, Xianyong Cao, and Andreas Hense
Clim. Past, 19, 1043–1060, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1043-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1043-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Data–data and data–model vegetation comparisons are commonly based on comparing single vegetation estimates. While this approach generates good results on average, reducing pollen assemblages to single single plant functional type (PFT) or biome estimates can oversimplify the vegetation signal. We propose using a multivariate metric, the Earth mover's distance (EMD), to include more details about the vegetation structure when performing such comparisons.
Vishnu Nair, Anujah Mohanathan, Michael Herzog, David G. Macfarlane, and Duncan A. Robertson
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4417–4432, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4417-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4417-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
A numerical model that simulates the measurement processes behind the ground-based radars used to detect volcanic ash clouds is introduced. Using weather radars to detect volcanic clouds is not ideal, as fine ash particles are smaller than raindrops and remain undetected. We evaluate the performance of weather radars to study ash clouds and to identify optimal frequencies that balance the trade-off between a higher return signal and the higher path attenuation that comes at these higher frequencies.
Elisa Ziegler, Nils Weitzel, Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Lauren Gregoire, Ruza Ivanovic, Paul J. Valdes, Christian Wirths, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 21, 627–659, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-627-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-627-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
During the Last Deglaciation, global surface temperature rose by about 4–7 °C over several millennia. We show that changes in year-to-year up to century-to-century fluctuations of temperature and precipitation during the Deglaciation were mostly larger than during either the preceding or succeeding more stable periods in 15 climate model simulations. The analysis demonstrates how ice sheets, meltwater, and volcanism influence simulated variability to inform future simulation protocols.
Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Nils Weitzel, Maximilian May, Lukas Jonkers, Andrew M. Dolman, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 21, 381–403, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-381-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-381-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Earth's past temperature reconstructions are critical for understanding climate change. We test the ability of these reconstructions using climate simulations. Uncertainties, mainly from past temperature measurement methods and age determination, impact reconstructions over time. While more data enhance accuracy for long-term trends, high-quality data are more important for short-term precision. Our study lays the groundwork for better reconstructions and suggests avenues for improvement.
Kieran M. R. Hunt, Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Andrew G. Turner, A. P. Dimri, Ghulam Jeelani, Pooja, Rajib Chattopadhyay, Forest Cannon, T. Arulalan, M. S. Shekhar, T. P. Sabin, and Eliza Palazzi
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 43–112, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-43-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-43-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Western disturbances (WDs) are storms that predominantly affect north India and Pakistan during the winter months, where they play an important role in regional water security, but can also bring a range of natural hazards. In this review, we summarise recent literature across a range of topics: their structure and lifecycle, precipitation and impacts, interactions with large-scale weather patterns, representation in models, how well they are forecast, and their response to changes in climate.
Nils Weitzel, Heather Andres, Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Lukas Jonkers, Oliver Bothe, Elisa Ziegler, Thomas Kleinen, André Paul, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 20, 865–890, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-865-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-865-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The ability of climate models to faithfully reproduce past warming episodes is a valuable test considering potentially large future warming. We develop a new method to compare simulations of the last deglaciation with temperature reconstructions. We find that reconstructions differ more between regions than simulations, potentially due to deficiencies in the simulation design, models, or reconstructions. Our work is a promising step towards benchmarking simulations of past climate transitions.
Manuel Chevalier, Anne Dallmeyer, Nils Weitzel, Chenzhi Li, Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Ulrike Herzschuh, Xianyong Cao, and Andreas Hense
Clim. Past, 19, 1043–1060, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1043-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1043-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Data–data and data–model vegetation comparisons are commonly based on comparing single vegetation estimates. While this approach generates good results on average, reducing pollen assemblages to single single plant functional type (PFT) or biome estimates can oversimplify the vegetation signal. We propose using a multivariate metric, the Earth mover's distance (EMD), to include more details about the vegetation structure when performing such comparisons.
Rebecca C. Roberts, Junaid Abdul Jabbar, Huw Jones, Hector A. Orengo, Marco Madella, and Cameron A. Petrie
Abstr. Int. Cartogr. Assoc., 3, 250, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-3-250-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-3-250-2021, 2021
Cited articles
Agnihotri, C. and Singh, M.: Satellite study of western disturbances, Mausam,
33, 249–254, 1982. a
Ahmed, F., Adnan, S., and Latif, M.: Impact of jet stream and associated
mechanisms on winter precipitation in Pakistan, Meteorol. Atmos.
Phys., 132, 225–238, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-019-00683-8, 2019. a, b, c
Bao, J.-W., Michelson, S. A., Neiman, P. J., Ralph, F. M., and Wilczak, J. M.:
Interpretation of Enhanced Integrated Water Vapor Bands Associated with
Extratropical Cyclones: Their Formation and Connection to Tropical Moisture,
Mon. Weather Rev., 134, 1063–1080, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3123.1, 2006. a
Baudouin, J.-P.: Synoptic processes of winter precipitation in the Upper Indus Basin. Weather and Climate Dynamics, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5562173, 2021. a
Baudouin, J.-P., Herzog, M., and Petrie, C. A.: Cross-validating precipitation datasets in the Indus River basin, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 427–450, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-427-2020, 2020b. a, b, c, d
Bollasina, M. and Nigam, S.: Modeling of Regional Hydroclimate Change over the
Indian Subcontinent: Impact of the Expanding Thar Desert, J.
Climate, 24, 3089–3106, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3851.1, 2011. a
Boschi, R. and Lucarini, V.: Water Pathways for the Hindu-Kush-Himalaya and
an Analysis of Three Flood Events, Atmosphere, 10, 489, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10090489, 2019. a
Brent, R. P.: Algorithms for minimization without derivatives, Prentice-Hall,
Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, 1973. a
Cannon, F., Carvalho, L. M., Jones, C., and Bookhagen, B.: Multi-annual
variations in winter westerly disturbance activity affecting the Himalaya,
Clim. Dynam., 44, 441–455, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2248-8, 2015. a, b
Cannon, F., Carvalho, L. M., Jones, C., and Norris, J.: Winter westerly
disturbance dynamics and precipitation in the western Himalaya and Karakoram:
a wave-tracking approach, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 125, 27–44,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1489-8, 2016. a, b
Chakraborty, A., Behera, S. K., Mujumdar, M., Ohba, R., and Yamagata, T.:
Diagnosis of tropospheric moisture over Saudi Arabia and influences of IOD
and ENSO, Mon. Weather Rev., 134, 598–617, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3085.1,
2006. a
Dacre, H. F., Hawcroft, M. K., Stringer, M. A., and Hodges, K. I.: An
Extratropical Cyclone Atlas: A Tool for Illustrating Cyclone Structure and
Evolution Characteristics, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc.,
93, 1497–1502, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00164.1, 2012. a
Dahri, Z. H., Moors, E., Ludwig, F., Ahmad, S., Khan, A., Ali, I., and Kabat,
P.: Adjustment of measurement errors to reconcile precipitation distribution
in the high-altitude Indus basin, Int. J. Climatol., 38,
3842–3860, 2018. a
Dar, S. S., Ghosh, P., and Hillaire-Marcel, C.: Convection, terrestrial
recycling and oceanic moisture regulate the isotopic composition of
precipitation at Srinagar, Kashmir, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 126, e2020JD032853, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD032853, 2021. a
Datta, R. and Gupta, M.: Synoptic study of the formation and movements of
western depressions, Indian J. Meteorol. Geophys, 18, 45–50, 1967. a
de Vries, A. J., Feldstein, S. B., Riemer, M., Tyrlis, E., Sprenger, M.,
Baumgart, M., Fnais, M., and Lelieveld, J.: Dynamics of
tropical–extratropical interactions and extreme precipitation events in
Saudi Arabia in autumn, winter and spring, Q. J. Roy.
Meteor. Soc., 142, 1862–1880, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2781, 2016. a
Dimri, A. P.: Impact of horizontal model resolution and orography on the
simulation of a western disturbance and its associated precipitation,
Meteorol. Appl., 11, 115–127, https://doi.org/10.1017/S1350482704001227,
2004. a
Dimri, A. P.: The transport of momentum, sensible heat, potential energy and
moisture over the western Himalayas during the winter season, Theor.
Appl. Climatol., 90, 49–63, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-006-0274-0, 2007. a, b, c
Dimri, A. P.: Intraseasonal oscillation associated with the Indian winter
monsoon, J. Geophys-Res.-Atmos., 118, 1189–1198,
https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50144, 2013. a, b
Dimri, A. P. and Niyogi, D.: Regional climate model application at subgrid
scale on Indian winter monsoon over the western Himalayas, Int.
J. Climatol., 33, 2185–2205, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3584, 2013. a, b
Grams, C. M., Wernli, H., Böttcher, M., Čampa, J., Corsmeier, U., Jones,
S. C., Keller, J. H., Lenz, C.-J., and Wiegand, L.: The key role of diabatic
processes in modifying the upper-tropospheric wave guide: a North Atlantic
case-study, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137,
2174–2193, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.891, 2011. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Biavati, G., Horányi, A., Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Dee, D., and Thépaut, J.-N.: ERA5 hourly data on pressure levels from 1979 to present, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.bd0915c6, 2018a. a
Hersbach, H., de Rosnay, P., Bell, B., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Alonso-Balmaseda, M., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Berrisford, P., Bidlot, J.-R., de Boisséson, E., Bonavita, M., Browne, P., Buizza, R., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Dragani, R., Diamantakis, M.,Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Geer, A., Haiden, T., Hólm, E., Haimberger, L., Hogan, R., Horányi, A., Janiskova, M., Laloyaux, P., Lopez,P., Munoz-Sabater, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Richardson, D., Thépaut, J.-N., Vitart, F., Yang, X., Zsótér, E., and Zuo, H.: Operationalglobal
reanalysis: progress, future directions and synergies with NWP, ERA-report, Serie 27, https://doi.org/10.21957/tkic6g3wm, 2018b. a
Hewitt, K.: Glacier change, concentration, and elevation effects in the
karakoram Himalaya, Upper Indus Basin, Mountain Res.
Dev., 31, 188–200, https://doi.org/10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-11-00020.1, 2011. a
Hunt, K. M. and Dimri, A.: Synoptic-scale precursors of landslides in the
western Himalaya and Karakoram, Sci. Total Environ., 776,
145895, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145895, 2021. a
Hunt, K. M. R., Turner, A. G., and Schiemann, R. K. H.: How interactions
between tropical depressions and western disturbances affect heavy
precipitation in South Asia, Mon. Weather Rev.,
https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-20-0373.1, 2021. a, b
Jeelani, G., Deshpande, R. D., Galkowski, M., and Rozanski, K.: Isotopic composition of daily precipitation along the southern foothills of the Himalayas: impact of marine and continental sources of atmospheric moisture, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8789–8805, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8789-2018, 2018. a, b
Krishnamurti, T. N.: The subtropical jet stream of winter, J.
Meteorol. 18, 172–191,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1961)018<0172:TSJSOW>2.0.CO;2, 1961. a, b
Krishnan, R., Sabin, T. P., Madhura, R. K., Vellore, R. K., Mujumdar, M.,
Sanjay, J., Nayak, S., and Rajeevan, M.: Non-monsoonal precipitation
response over the Western Himalayas to climate change, Clim. Dynam., 52,
4091–4109, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4357-2, 2018. a
Madhura, R. K., Krishnan, R., Revadekar, J. V., Mujumdar, M., and Goswami,
B. N.: Changes in western disturbances over the Western Himalayas in a
warming environment, Clim. Dynam., 44, 1157–1168,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2166-9, 2015. a
Mahanta, R., Sarma, D., and Choudhury, A.: Heavy rainfall occurrences in
northeast India, Int. J. Climatol., 33, 1456–1469,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3526, 2013. a
Malurkar, S. L.: Abnormally dry and wet western disturbances over North
India, Curr. Sci., 16, 139–141, 1947. a
Mannan, M. A., Chowdhury, M. A. M., Karmakar, S., Ahmed, S., and Rahman, A.:
Analysis and prediction of rainfall associated with Western Disturbances
during winter months in Bangladesh, Den-Drop (A Scientific Journal of
Meteorology and Geo-physics), Bangladesh Meteorological Department, Dhaka,
Bangladesh, 4, 12–24, 2017. a
Martínez-Alvarado, O., Joos, H., Chagnon, J., Boettcher, M., Gray, S. L.,
Plant, R. S., Methven, J., and Wernli, H.: The dichotomous structure of the
warm conveyor belt, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,
140, 1809–1824, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2276, 2014. a
Mujumdar, M.: Diagnostic Analysis of Wintertime Rainfall Events Over the
Arabian Region, Contribution from IITM, Indian Institute of Tropical
Meteorology, ISSN 0252-1075,
2006. a
Mull, S. and Desai, B.: The Origin and Structure of the Winter Depressions of
Northwest India, Technical Note 25:18, India Meteorological Department, India, 1947. a
Nathans, L., Oswald, F., and Nimon, K.: Interpreting multiple linear
regression: A guidebook of variable importance, Practical Assessment,
Research and Evaluation, 17, 1–19, 2012. a
Pisharoty, P. and Desai, B.: Western disturbances and Indian weather, Indian
J. Meteorol. Geophys, 7, 333–338, 1956. a
Rakesh, V., Singh, R., Yuliya, D., Pal, P. K., and Joshi, P. C.: Impact of
variational assimilation of MODIS thermodynamic profiles in the simulation of
western disturbance, Int. J. Remote Sens., 30,
4867–4887, https://doi.org/10.1080/01431160902980332, 2009.
a
Rana, S., McGregor, J., and Renwick, J.: Precipitation seasonality over the
Indian subcontinent: An evaluation of gauge, reanalyses, and satellite
retrievals, J. Hydrometeorol., 16, 631–651, 2015. a
Sankar, N. V. and Babu, C.: Role of vorticity advection and thermal advection
in the development of western disturbance during North Indian winter,
Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 132, 515–529, 2020. a
Schiemann, R., Lüthi, D., and Schär, C.: Seasonality and Interannual
Variability of the Westerly Jet in the Tibetan Plateau Region, J.
Climate, 22, 2940–2957, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2625.1, 2009. a, b, c, d
Singh, S. P., Bassignana-Khadka, I., Singh Karky, B., and Sharma, E.: Climate
change in the Hindu Kush-Himalayas: the state of current knowledge, Tech.
rep., International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), Kathmandu,
2011. a
Smith, R. L., Joel W. Ager, J., and Williams, D. L.: Suppressor Variables in
Multiple Regression/Correlation, Educ. Psychol. Meas.,
52, 17–29, https://doi.org/10.1177/001316449205200102, 1992. a
Syed, F. S., Giorgi, F., Pal, J. S., and Keay, K.: Regional climate model
simulation of winter climate over Central–Southwest Asia, with emphasis on
NAO and ENSO effects, Int. J. Climato., 30, 220–235,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1887, 2010. a, b, c
Thapa, K., Endreny, T. A., and Ferguson, C. R.: Atmospheric Rivers Carry
Nonmonsoon Extreme Precipitation Into Nepal, J. Geophys.
Res.-Atmos., 123, 5901–5912, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JD027626, 2018. a
Thomas, L., Dash, S. K., Mohanty, U. C., and Babu, C. A.: Features of western
disturbances simulated over north India using different land-use data sets,
Meteorol. Appl., 25, 246–253, https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1687, 2018. a
Tinmaker, M. and Ali, K.: Space time variation of lightning activity over
northeast India, Meteorol. Z., 21, 135–143, 2012. a
Xueyuan, K. and Yaocun, Z.: Seasonal variation of the East Asian Subtropical
Westerly Jet and its association with the heating field over East Asia,
Adv. Atmos. Sci., 22, 831–840, https://doi.org/10.1007/bf02918683,
2005. a
Yadav, R. K., Kumar, K. R., and Rajeevan, M.: Characteristic features of
winter precipitation and its variability over northwest India, J.
Earth Syst. Sci., 121, 611–623, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-012-0184-8, 2012. a
Yang, S., Lau, K.-M., Yoo, S.-H., Kinter, J. L., Miyakoda, K., and Ho, C.-H.:
Upstream Subtropical Signals Preceding the Asian Summer Monsoon
Circulation, J. Climate, 17, 4213–4229, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3192.1,
2004. a
Zhu, Y. and Newell, R. E.: A Proposed Algorithm for Moisture Fluxes from
Atmospheric Rivers, Mon. Weather Rev., 126, 725–735,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<0725:APAFMF>2.0.CO;2, 1998. a
Short summary
Western disturbances are mid-latitude, high-altitude, low-pressure areas that bring orographic precipitation into the Upper Indus Basin. Using statistical tools, we show that the interaction between western disturbances and relief explains the near-surface, cross-barrier wind activity. We also reveal the existence of a moisture pathway from the nearby seas. Overall, we offer a conceptual framework for western-disturbance activity, particularly in terms of precipitation.
Western disturbances are mid-latitude, high-altitude, low-pressure areas that bring orographic...
