Articles | Volume 2, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-561-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-561-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
08 Jul 2021
Research article |
| 08 Jul 2021
| 08 Jul 2021
The impact of GPS and high-resolution radiosonde nudging on the simulation of heavy precipitation during HyMeX IOP6
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department Troposphere Research, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe
Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, P.O. Box 3640, 76021 Karlsruhe, Germany
Samiro Khodayar
Department Troposphere Research, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe
Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, P.O. Box 3640, 76021 Karlsruhe, Germany
Meteorology and Pollutant Dynamics Area, Mediterranean Centre for Environmental Studies (CEAM), Valencia,
46980, Spain
Peter Knippertz
Department Troposphere Research, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe
Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, P.O. Box 3640, 76021 Karlsruhe, Germany
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Susanna Mohr, Uwe Ehret, Michael Kunz, Patrick Ludwig, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Florian Ehmele, Hendrik Feldmann, Mário J. Franca, Christian Gattke, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Marc Scheibel, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 525–551, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, 2023
Short summary
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Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, Markus Augenstein, Georgy Ayzel, Klemens Barfus, Ribu Cherian, Lisa Dillenardt, Felix Fauer, Hendrik Feldmann, Maik Heistermann, Alexia Karwat, Frank Kaspar, Heidi Kreibich, Etor Emanuel Lucio-Eceiza, Edmund P. Meredith, Susanna Mohr, Deborah Niermann, Stephan Pfahl, Florian Ruff, Henning W. Rust, Lukas Schoppa, Thomas Schwitalla, Stella Steidl, Annegret H. Thieken, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Johannes Quaas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3701–3724, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, 2022
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Lea Eisenstein, Benedikt Schulz, Ghulam A. Qadir, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Peter Knippertz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1157–1182, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1157-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1157-2022, 2022
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Mesoscale high-wind features within extratropical cyclones can cause immense damage. Here, we present RAMEFI, a novel approach to objectively identify the wind features based on a probabilistic random forest. RAMEFI enables a wide range of applications such as probabilistic predictions for the occurrence or a multi-decadal climatology of these features, which will be the focus of Part 2 of the study, with the goal of improving wind and, specifically, wind gust forecasts in the long run.
Adrien Deroubaix, Laurent Menut, Cyrille Flamant, Peter Knippertz, Andreas H. Fink, Anneke Batenburg, Joel Brito, Cyrielle Denjean, Cheikh Dione, Régis Dupuy, Valerian Hahn, Norbert Kalthoff, Fabienne Lohou, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Guillaume Siour, Paolo Tuccella, and Christiane Voigt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3251–3273, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3251-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3251-2022, 2022
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Samira Khodayar, Silvio Davolio, Paolo Di Girolamo, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Emmanouil Flaounas, Nadia Fourrie, Keun-Ok Lee, Didier Ricard, Benoit Vie, Francois Bouttier, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, and Veronique Ducrocq
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Christopher J. Diekmann, Matthias Schneider, Benjamin Ertl, Frank Hase, Omaira García, Farahnaz Khosrawi, Eliezer Sepúlveda, Peter Knippertz, and Peter Braesicke
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5273–5292, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5273-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5273-2021, 2021
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The joint analysis of different stable water isotopes in water vapour is a powerful tool for investigating atmospheric moisture pathways. This paper presents a novel global and multi-annual dataset of H2O and HDO in mid-tropospheric water vapour by using data from the satellite sensor Metop/IASI. Due to its unique combination of coverage and resolution in space and time, this dataset is highly promising for studying the hydrological cycle and its representation in weather and climate models.
Fabienne Dahinden, Franziska Aemisegger, Heini Wernli, Matthias Schneider, Christopher J. Diekmann, Benjamin Ertl, Peter Knippertz, Martin Werner, and Stephan Pfahl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16319–16347, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16319-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16319-2021, 2021
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We use high-resolution numerical isotope modelling and Lagrangian backward trajectories to identify moisture transport pathways and governing physical and dynamical processes that affect the free-tropospheric humidity and isotopic variability over the eastern subtropical North Atlantic. Furthermore, we conduct a thorough isotope modelling validation with aircraft and remote-sensing observations of water vapour isotopes.
Gregor Pante, Peter Knippertz, Andreas H. Fink, and Anke Kniffka
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 35–55, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-35-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-35-2021, 2021
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Seasonal rainfall amounts along the densely populated West African Guinea coast have been decreasing during the past 35 years, with recently accelerating trends. We find strong indications that this is in part related to increasing human air pollution in the region. Given the fast increase in emissions, the political implications of this work are significant. Reducing air pollution locally and regionally would mitigate an imminent health crisis and socio-economic damage from reduced rainfall.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez and Samiro Khodayar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2753–2776, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2753-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2753-2020, 2020
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Alima Dajuma, Kehinde O. Ogunjobi, Heike Vogel, Peter Knippertz, Siélé Silué, Evelyne Touré N'Datchoh, Véronique Yoboué, and Bernhard Vogel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 5373–5390, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5373-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5373-2020, 2020
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A modeling study through COSMO-ART was used to investigate the implication of downward mixing induced by clouds in transporting biomass burning aerosols from central and southern Africa located between 2 and 4 km into the PBL over southern West Africa. Results showed that individual mixing events south of the coast of Côte d’Ivoire due to mid-level convective clouds injects part of the biomass burning plume into the PBL. 15 % of CO mass from the 2–4 km layer is mixed below 1 km.
Cyrielle Denjean, Thierry Bourrianne, Frederic Burnet, Marc Mallet, Nicolas Maury, Aurélie Colomb, Pamela Dominutti, Joel Brito, Régis Dupuy, Karine Sellegri, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Cyrille Flamant, and Peter Knippertz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 4735–4756, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4735-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4735-2020, 2020
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This paper presents aircraft measurements of aerosol optical properties over southern West Africa. We show that aerosol optical properties in the boundary layer were dominated by a persistent biomass burning loading from the Southern Hemisphere. Biomass burning aerosols were more light absorbing that those previously measured in other areas (Amazonia, North America). Our study suggests that lens-coated black carbon particles were the dominant absorber for these biomass burning aerosols.
Hendrik Andersen, Jan Cermak, Julia Fuchs, Peter Knippertz, Marco Gaetani, Julian Quinting, Sebastian Sippel, and Roland Vogt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 3415–3438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3415-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3415-2020, 2020
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Fog and low clouds (FLCs) are an essential but poorly understood element of Namib regional climate. Here, a satellite-based data set of FLCs in central Namib, reanalysis data, and back trajectories are used to systematically analyze conditions when FLCs occur. Synoptic-scale mechanisms are identified that influence the formation of FLCs and the onshore advection of marine boundary-layer air masses. The findings lead to a new conceptual model of mechanisms that drive FLC variability in the Namib.
Sophie L. Haslett, Jonathan W. Taylor, Mathew Evans, Eleanor Morris, Bernhard Vogel, Alima Dajuma, Joel Brito, Anneke M. Batenburg, Stephan Borrmann, Johannes Schneider, Christiane Schulz, Cyrielle Denjean, Thierry Bourrianne, Peter Knippertz, Régis Dupuy, Alfons Schwarzenböck, Daniel Sauer, Cyrille Flamant, James Dorsey, Ian Crawford, and Hugh Coe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 15217–15234, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15217-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15217-2019, 2019
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Three aircraft datasets from the DACCIWA campaign in summer 2016 are used here to show there is a background mass of pollution present in the lower atmosphere in southern West Africa. We suggest that this likely comes from biomass burning in central and southern Africa, which has been carried into the region over the Atlantic Ocean. This would have a negative health impact on populations living near the coast and may alter the impact of growing city emissions on cloud formation and the monsoon.
Jonathan W. Taylor, Sophie L. Haslett, Keith Bower, Michael Flynn, Ian Crawford, James Dorsey, Tom Choularton, Paul J. Connolly, Valerian Hahn, Christiane Voigt, Daniel Sauer, Régis Dupuy, Joel Brito, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Thierry Bourriane, Cyrielle Denjean, Phil Rosenberg, Cyrille Flamant, James D. Lee, Adam R. Vaughan, Peter G. Hill, Barbara Brooks, Valéry Catoire, Peter Knippertz, and Hugh Coe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 8503–8522, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8503-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8503-2019, 2019
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Low-level clouds cover a wide area of southern West Africa (SWA) and play an important role in the region's climate, reflecting sunlight away from the surface. We performed aircraft measurements of aerosols and clouds over SWA during the 2016 summer monsoon and found pollution, and polluted clouds, across the whole region. Smoke from biomass burning in Central Africa is transported to West Africa, causing a polluted background which limits the effect of local pollution on cloud properties.
Anke Kniffka, Peter Knippertz, and Andreas H. Fink
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 1623–1647, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1623-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1623-2019, 2019
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The role of low-level clouds in the southern West Africa (SWA) energy balance and the West African monsoon system is assessed via targeted sensitivity studies with the NWP model ICON. We show for the first time that rainfall over SWA depends logarithmically on the optical thickness of low clouds, as these control the diurnal evolution of the planetary boundary layer, vertical stability and finally convection. Small variations in clouds or aerosol have a substantial impact on precipitation.
Samiro Khodayar, Amparo Coll, and Ernesto Lopez-Baeza
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 255–275, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-255-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-255-2019, 2019
Adrien Deroubaix, Laurent Menut, Cyrille Flamant, Joel Brito, Cyrielle Denjean, Volker Dreiling, Andreas Fink, Corinne Jambert, Norbert Kalthoff, Peter Knippertz, Russ Ladkin, Sylvain Mailler, Marlon Maranan, Federica Pacifico, Bruno Piguet, Guillaume Siour, and Solène Turquety
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 473–497, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-473-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-473-2019, 2019
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This article presents a detailed analysis of anthropogenic and biomass burning pollutants over the Gulf of Guinea coastal region, using observations from the DACCIWA field campaign and modeling. The novelty is that we focus on how these two pollution sources are mixed and transported further inland. We show that during the day pollutants are accumulated along the coastline and transported northward as soon as the daytime convection in the atmospheric boundary layer ceases (16:00 UTC).
Konrad Deetz, Heike Vogel, Sophie Haslett, Peter Knippertz, Hugh Coe, and Bernhard Vogel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 14271–14295, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14271-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14271-2018, 2018
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Water uptake can significantly increase the size and therefore alters the optical properties of aerosols. Our model study reveals that the high moisture and aerosol burden in the southern West African monsoon
layer makes it favorable to quantify properties that determine the aerosol liquid water content and its impact on the aerosol optical depth and radiative transfer. Especially in moist tropical environments the relative humidity impact on AOD has to be considered in atmospheric models.
Cyrille Flamant, Adrien Deroubaix, Patrick Chazette, Joel Brito, Marco Gaetani, Peter Knippertz, Andreas H. Fink, Gaëlle de Coetlogon, Laurent Menut, Aurélie Colomb, Cyrielle Denjean, Rémi Meynadier, Philip Rosenberg, Regis Dupuy, Pamela Dominutti, Jonathan Duplissy, Thierry Bourrianne, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Michel Ramonet, and Julien Totems
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 12363–12389, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-12363-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-12363-2018, 2018
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This work sheds light on the complex mechanisms by which coastal shallow circulations distribute atmospheric pollutants over the densely populated southern West African region. Pollutants of concern are anthropogenic emissions from coastal cities, as well as biomass burning aerosol and dust associated with long-range transport. The complex vertical distribution of aerosols over coastal southern West Africa is investigated using airborne observations and numerical simulations.
Angela Benedetti, Jeffrey S. Reid, Peter Knippertz, John H. Marsham, Francesca Di Giuseppe, Samuel Rémy, Sara Basart, Olivier Boucher, Ian M. Brooks, Laurent Menut, Lucia Mona, Paolo Laj, Gelsomina Pappalardo, Alfred Wiedensohler, Alexander Baklanov, Malcolm Brooks, Peter R. Colarco, Emilio Cuevas, Arlindo da Silva, Jeronimo Escribano, Johannes Flemming, Nicolas Huneeus, Oriol Jorba, Stelios Kazadzis, Stefan Kinne, Thomas Popp, Patricia K. Quinn, Thomas T. Sekiyama, Taichu Tanaka, and Enric Terradellas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10615–10643, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10615-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10615-2018, 2018
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Numerical prediction of aerosol particle properties has become an important activity at many research and operational weather centers. This development is due to growing interest from a diverse set of stakeholders, such as air quality regulatory bodies, aviation authorities, solar energy plant managers, climate service providers, and health professionals. This paper describes the advances in the field and sets out requirements for observations for the sustainability of these activities.
Konrad Deetz, Heike Vogel, Peter Knippertz, Bianca Adler, Jonathan Taylor, Hugh Coe, Keith Bower, Sophie Haslett, Michael Flynn, James Dorsey, Ian Crawford, Christoph Kottmeier, and Bernhard Vogel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 9767–9788, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9767-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9767-2018, 2018
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Highly resolved process study simulations for 2–3 July are conducted with COSMO-ART to assess the aerosol direct and indirect effect on meteorological conditions over southern West Africa. The meteorological phenomena of Atlantic inflow and stratus-to-cumulus transition are identified as highly susceptible to the aerosol direct effect, leading to a spatial shift of the Atlantic inflow front and a temporal shift of the stratus-to-cumulus transition with changes in the aerosol amount.
Florian Pantillon, Andreas Wieser, Bianca Adler, Ulrich Corsmeier, and Peter Knippertz
Adv. Sci. Res., 15, 91–97, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-15-91-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-15-91-2018, 2018
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The Wind and Storms Experiment (WASTEX) was conducted during the winter 2016–2017 in the Upper Rhine Valley to better understand the formation of wind gusts during the passage of storms. The key instrument of the field campaign was a scanning Doppler lidar, which provides accurate wind observations along its beam with high spatial and temporal resolutions and within a range of several km. Results from WASTEX should help improving the representation of wind gusts in weather and climate models.
Norbert Kalthoff, Fabienne Lohou, Barbara Brooks, Gbenga Jegede, Bianca Adler, Karmen Babić, Cheikh Dione, Adewale Ajao, Leonard K. Amekudzi, Jeffrey N. A. Aryee, Muritala Ayoola, Geoffrey Bessardon, Sylvester K. Danuor, Jan Handwerker, Martin Kohler, Marie Lothon, Xabier Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia, Victoria Smith, Lukman Sunmonu, Andreas Wieser, Andreas H. Fink, and Peter Knippertz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2913–2928, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2913-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2913-2018, 2018
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Extended low-level stratus clouds (LLC) form frequently in southern West Africa during the night-time and persist long into the next day. They affect the radiation budget, atmospheric boundary-layer (BL) evolution and regional climate. The relevant processes governing their formation and dissolution are not fully understood. Thus, a field campaign was conducted in summer 2016, which provided a comprehensive data set for process studies, specifically of interactions between LLC and BL conditions.
Joel Brito, Evelyn Freney, Pamela Dominutti, Agnes Borbon, Sophie L. Haslett, Anneke M. Batenburg, Aurelie Colomb, Regis Dupuy, Cyrielle Denjean, Frederic Burnet, Thierry Bourriane, Adrien Deroubaix, Karine Sellegri, Stephan Borrmann, Hugh Coe, Cyrille Flamant, Peter Knippertz, and Alfons Schwarzenboeck
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 757–772, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-757-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-757-2018, 2018
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This work focuses on sources of submicron aerosol particles over southern West Africa (SWA). Results have shown that isoprene, a gas-phase compound of biogenic origin, is responsible for roughly 25 % of the organic aerosol (OA) loading, under most background or urban plumes alike. This fraction represents a lower estimate from the biogenic contribution in this fairly polluted region. This work sheds light upon the role of anthropogenic and biogenic emissions on the pollution burden over SWA.
Philipp Gasch, Daniel Rieger, Carolin Walter, Pavel Khain, Yoav Levi, Peter Knippertz, and Bernhard Vogel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 13573–13604, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13573-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13573-2017, 2017
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This paper presents simulations of a severe dust event in the Eastern Mediterranean with a weather prediction model using very high spatial resolution. Due to the high resolution, the small-scale features of the event are captured in great detail. Consequently, the previously erroneous forecast of the event is improved drastically. In addition, the interaction of mineral dust with radiation inside the model has been included as a part of this work and is presented here.
Florian Pantillon, Peter Knippertz, and Ulrich Corsmeier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1795–1810, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1795-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1795-2017, 2017
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The predictability of 25 historical winter storms over Europe is revisited by taking advantage of a homogeneous dataset of retrospective forecasts for the 1995–2015 period. The forecasts well predict the storms up to 2–4 days ahead only but also show clear potential for the early warning of storms up to 10 days ahead. However, the predictability of individual storms exhibits large variability and physical characteristics are identified for outliers with a poor predictability.
Peter Knippertz, Andreas H. Fink, Adrien Deroubaix, Eleanor Morris, Flore Tocquer, Mat J. Evans, Cyrille Flamant, Marco Gaetani, Christophe Lavaysse, Celine Mari, John H. Marsham, Rémi Meynadier, Abalo Affo-Dogo, Titike Bahaga, Fabien Brosse, Konrad Deetz, Ridha Guebsi, Issaou Latifou, Marlon Maranan, Philip D. Rosenberg, and Andreas Schlueter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 10893–10918, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10893-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10893-2017, 2017
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In June–July 2016 DACCIWA (Dynamics–Aerosol–Chemistry–Cloud Interactions in West Africa), a large, EU-funded European–African project, organised an international field campaign in densely populated southern West Africa, including measurements from ground sites, research aircraft, weather balloons and urban sites. This paper gives an overview of the atmospheric evolution during this period focusing on meteorological (precipitation, cloudiness, winds) and composition (gases, particles) aspects.
Alberto Caldas-Álvarez, Samiro Khodayar, and Olivier Bock
Adv. Sci. Res., 14, 157–162, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-157-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-157-2017, 2017
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The representation of the atmospheric moisture distribution in weather and climate prediction models has been identified as a source of error in the representation of heavy precipitation events. This research work shows the relevance of overcoming deficiencies in the representation of the moisture content in the vertical direction, even after assimilating humidity data for a case study characteristic of the western Mediterranean by early autumn.
S. Fiedler, K. Schepanski, P. Knippertz, B. Heinold, and I. Tegen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 8983–9000, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8983-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8983-2014, 2014
S. M. Cowie, P. Knippertz, and J. H. Marsham
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 8579–8597, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8579-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8579-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Atmospheric predictability
Systematic evaluation of the predictability of different Mediterranean cyclone categories
Understanding winter windstorm predictability over Europe
Intrinsic predictability limits arising from Indian Ocean Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) heating: effects on tropical and extratropical teleconnections
Predictable decadal forcing of the North Atlantic jet speed by sub-polar North Atlantic sea surface temperatures
Exploiting the signal-to-noise ratio in multi-system predictions of boreal summer precipitation and temperature
Causal associations and predictability of the summer East Atlantic teleconnection
Uncertainty growth and forecast reliability during extratropical cyclogenesis
Convection-parameterized and convection-permitting modelling of heavy precipitation in decadal simulations of the greater Alpine region with COSMO-CLM
Improved extended-range prediction of persistent stratospheric perturbations using machine learning
Increased vertical resolution in the stratosphere reveals role of gravity waves after sudden stratospheric warmings
The impact of microphysical uncertainty conditional on initial and boundary condition uncertainty under varying synoptic control
Subseasonal precipitation forecasts of opportunity over central southwest Asia
Predictability of a tornado environment index from El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Arctic Oscillation
Differences in the sub-seasonal predictability of extreme stratospheric events
Impact of Eurasian autumn snow on the winter North Atlantic Oscillation in seasonal forecasts of the 20th century
Bimodality in ensemble forecasts of 2 m temperature: identification
Flow dependence of wintertime subseasonal prediction skill over Europe
Seasonal forecasts of the Saharan heat low characteristics: a multi-model assessment
Emergence of representative signals for sudden stratospheric warmings beyond current predictable lead times
Seasonal climate influences on the timing of the Australian monsoon onset
Subseasonal prediction of springtime Pacific–North American transport using upper-level wind forecasts
A dynamic and thermodynamic analysis of the 11 December 2017 tornadic supercell in the Highveld of South Africa
How an uncertain short-wave perturbation on the North Atlantic wave guide affects the forecast of an intense Mediterranean cyclone (Medicane Zorbas)
Robust predictors for seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity identified with causal effect networks
Subseasonal midlatitude prediction skill following Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and Madden–Julian Oscillation activity
Large impact of tiny model domain shifts for the Pentecost 2014 mesoscale convective system over Germany
Benjamin Doiteau, Florian Pantillon, Matthieu Plu, Laurent Descamps, and Thomas Rieutord
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1409–1427, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1409-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1409-2024, 2024
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The predictability of Mediterranean cyclones is investigated through a large dataset of 1960 cyclones tracks, ensuring robust statistical results. The motion speed of the cyclone appears to determine the predictability of its location. In particular, the location of specific slow cyclones concentrated in the Gulf of Genoa is remarkably well predicted. It is also shown that the intensity of deep cyclones, occurring in winter, is particularly poorly predicted in the Mediterranean region.
Lisa Degenhardt, Gregor C. Leckebusch, and Adam A. Scaife
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 587–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-587-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-587-2024, 2024
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This study investigates how dynamical factors that are known to influence cyclone or windstorm development and strengthening also influence the seasonal forecast skill of severe winter windstorms. This study shows which factors are well represented in the seasonal forecast model, the Global Seasonal forecasting system version 5 (GloSea5), and which might need improvement to refine the forecast of severe winter windstorms.
David Martin Straus, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Sarah-Jane Lock, Franco Molteni, and Priyanka Yadav
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 1001–1018, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1001-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1001-2023, 2023
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The global response to the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is potentially predictable. Yet the diabatic heating is uncertain even within a particular episode of the MJO. Experiments with a global model probe the limitations imposed by this uncertainty. The large-scale tropical heating is predictable for 25 to 45 d, yet the associated Rossby wave source that links the heating to the midlatitude circulation is predictable for 15 to 20 d. This limitation has not been recognized in prior work.
Kristian Strommen, Tim Woollings, Paolo Davini, Paolo Ruggieri, and Isla R. Simpson
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 853–874, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-853-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-853-2023, 2023
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We present evidence which strongly suggests that decadal variations in the intensity of the North Atlantic winter jet stream can be predicted by current forecast models but that decadal variations in its position appear to be unpredictable. It is argued that this skill at predicting jet intensity originates from the slow, predictable variability in sea surface temperatures in the sub-polar North Atlantic.
Juan Camilo Acosta Navarro and Andrea Toreti
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 823–831, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-823-2023, 2023
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Droughts and heatwaves have become some of the clearest manifestations of a changing climate. Near-term adaptation strategies can benefit from seasonal predictions, but these predictions still have limitations. We found that an intrinsic property of multi-system forecasts can serve to better anticipate extreme high-temperature and low-precipitation events during boreal summer in several regions of the Northern Hemisphere with different levels of predictability.
Julianna Carvalho-Oliveira, Giorgia di Capua, Leonard Borchert, Reik Donner, and Johanna Baehr
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1412, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1412, 2023
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We demonstrate with a causality analysis that an important recurrent summer atmospheric pattern, the so-called East Atlantic teleconnection, is influenced by the extratropical North Atlantic in spring during the second half of the 20th century. This causal link is, however, not well represented by our evaluated seasonal climate prediction system. We show that simulations able to reproduce this link show improved surface climate prediction credibility over those that do not.
Mark J. Rodwell and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 591–615, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-591-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-591-2023, 2023
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Midlatitude storms and their downstream impacts have a major impact on society, yet their prediction is especially prone to uncertainty. While this can never be fully eliminated, we find that the initial rate of growth of uncertainty varies for a range of forecast models. Examination of the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suggests ways in which uncertainty growth could be reduced, leading to sharper and more reliable forecasts over the first few days.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, Hendrik Feldmann, Etor Lucio-Eceiza, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 543–565, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-543-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-543-2023, 2023
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We evaluate convection-permitting modelling (CPM) simulations for the greater Alpine area to assess its added value compared to a 25 km resolution. A new method for severe precipitation detection is used, and the associated synoptic weather types are considered. Our results document the added value of CPM for precipitation representation with higher intensities, better rank correlation, better hit rates, and an improved amount and structure, but with an overestimation of the rates.
Raphaël de Fondeville, Zheng Wu, Enikő Székely, Guillaume Obozinski, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 287–307, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-287-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-287-2023, 2023
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We propose a fully data-driven, interpretable, and computationally scalable framework to characterize sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), extract statistically significant precursors, and produce machine learning (ML) forecasts. By successfully leveraging the long-lasting impact of SSWs, the ML predictions outperform sub-seasonal numerical forecasts for lead times beyond 25 d. Post-processing numerical predictions using their ML counterparts yields a performance increase of up to 20 %.
Wolfgang Wicker, Inna Polichtchouk, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 81–93, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-81-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-81-2023, 2023
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Sudden stratospheric warmings are extreme weather events where the winter polar stratosphere warms by about 25 K. An improved representation of small-scale gravity waves in sub-seasonal prediction models can reduce forecast errors since their impact on the large-scale circulation is predictable multiple weeks ahead. After a sudden stratospheric warming, vertically propagating gravity waves break at a lower altitude than usual, which strengthens the long-lasting positive temperature anomalies.
Takumi Matsunobu, Christian Keil, and Christian Barthlott
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1273–1289, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1273-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1273-2022, 2022
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This study quantifies the impact of poorly constrained parameters used to represent aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions on precipitation and cloud forecasts associated with uncertainties in input atmospheric states. Uncertainties in these parameters have a non-negligible impact on daily precipitation amount and largely change the amount of cloud. The comparison between different weather situations reveals that the impact becomes more important when convection is triggered by local effects.
Melissa L. Breeden, John R. Albers, and Andrew Hoell
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1183–1197, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1183-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1183-2022, 2022
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We use a statistical dynamical model to generate precipitation forecasts for lead times of 2–6 weeks over southwest Asia, which are needed to support humanitarian food distribution. The model signal-to-noise ratio is used to identify a smaller subset of forecasts with particularly high skill, so-called subseasonal forecasts of opportunity (SFOs). Precipitation SFOs are often related to slowly evolving tropical phenomena, namely the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Madden–Julian Oscillation.
Michael K. Tippett, Chiara Lepore, and Michelle L. L’Heureux
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1063–1075, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1063-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1063-2022, 2022
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The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) are phenomena that affect the weather and climate of North America. Although ENSO hails from from the tropical Pacific and the AO high above the North Pole, the spatial patterns of their influence on a North American tornado environment index are remarkably similar in computer models. We find that when ENSO and the AO act in concert, their impact is large, and when they oppose each other, their impact is small.
Rachel Wai-Ying Wu, Zheng Wu, and Daniela I.V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 755–776, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-755-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-755-2022, 2022
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Accurate predictions of the stratospheric polar vortex can enhance surface weather predictability. Stratospheric events themselves are less predictable, with strong inter-event differences. We assess the predictability of stratospheric acceleration and deceleration events in a sub-seasonal prediction system, finding that the predictability of events is largely dependent on event magnitude, while extreme drivers of deceleration events are not fully represented in the model.
Martin Wegmann, Yvan Orsolini, Antje Weisheimer, Bart van den Hurk, and Gerrit Lohmann
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1245–1261, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1245-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1245-2021, 2021
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Northern Hemisphere winter weather is influenced by the strength of westerly winds 30 km above the surface, the so-called polar vortex. Eurasian autumn snow cover is thought to modulate the polar vortex. So far, however, the modeled influence of snow on the polar vortex did not fit the observed influence. By analyzing a model experiment for the time span of 110 years, we could show that the causality of this impact is indeed sound and snow cover can weaken the polar vortex.
Cameron Bertossa, Peter Hitchcock, Arthur DeGaetano, and Riwal Plougonven
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1209–1224, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1209-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1209-2021, 2021
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While the assumption of Gaussianity leads to many simplifications, ensemble forecasts often exhibit non-Gaussian distributions. This work has systematically identified the presence of a specific case of
non-Gaussianity, bimodality. It has been found that bimodality occurs in a large portion of global 2 m temperature forecasts. This has drastic implications on forecast skill as the minimum probability in a bimodal distribution often lies at the maximum probability of a Gaussian distribution.
Constantin Ardilouze, Damien Specq, Lauriane Batté, and Christophe Cassou
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1033–1049, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1033-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1033-2021, 2021
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Forecasting temperature patterns beyond 2 weeks is very challenging, although occasionally, forecasts show more skill over Europe. Our study indicates that the level of skill varies concurrently for two distinct forecast systems. It also shows that higher skill occurs when forecasts are issued during specific patterns of atmospheric circulation that tend to be particularly persistent.
These results could help forecasters estimate a priori how trustworthy extended-range forecasts will be.
Cedric G. Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, Mathieu Vrac, Philippe Peyrillé, and Cyrille Flamant
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 893–912, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-893-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-893-2021, 2021
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This work assesses the forecast of the temperature over the Sahara, a key driver of the West African Monsoon, at a seasonal timescale. The seasonal models are able to reproduce the climatological state and some characteristics of the temperature during the rainy season in the Sahel. But, because of errors in the timing, the forecast skill scores are significant only for the first 4 weeks.
Zheng Wu, Bernat Jiménez-Esteve, Raphaël de Fondeville, Enikő Székely, Guillaume Obozinski, William T. Ball, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 841–865, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-841-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-841-2021, 2021
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We use an advanced statistical approach to investigate the dynamics of the development of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events in the winter Northern Hemisphere. We identify distinct signals that are representative of these events and their event type at lead times beyond currently predictable lead times. The results can be viewed as a promising step towards improving the predictability of SSWs in the future by using more advanced statistical methods in operational forecasting systems.
Joel Lisonbee and Joachim Ribbe
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 489–506, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-489-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-489-2021, 2021
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Why do some monsoon seasons start early, while others start late? For the Australian monsoon, some previous research suggested the El Niño–Southern Oscillation in the months before the onset influenced the monsoon timing. This research tests if this is still correct and if other large-scale climate patterns also influenced onset timing. We found that a strong La Niña pattern usually coincided with an early onset but weak La Niña and El Niño patterns did not show a consistent pattern.
John R. Albers, Amy H. Butler, Melissa L. Breeden, Andrew O. Langford, and George N. Kiladis
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 433–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-433-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-433-2021, 2021
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Weather variability controls the transport of ozone from the stratosphere to the Earth’s surface and water vapor from oceanic source regions to continental land masses. Forecasting these types of transport has high societal value because of the negative impacts of ozone on human health and the role of water vapor in governing precipitation variability. We use upper-level wind forecasts to assess the potential for predicting ozone and water vapor transport 3–6 weeks ahead of time.
Lesetja E. Lekoloane, Mary-Jane M. Bopape, Tshifhiwa Gift Rambuwani, Thando Ndarana, Stephanie Landman, Puseletso Mofokeng, Morne Gijben, and Ngwako Mohale
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 373–393, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-373-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-373-2021, 2021
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We analysed a tornadic supercell that tracked through the northern Highveld region of South Africa for 7 h. We found that atmospheric conditions were conducive for tornado-associated severe storms over the region. A 4.4 km resolution model run by the South African Weather Service was able to predict this supercell, including its timing. However, it underestimated its severity due to underestimations of other important factors necessary for real-world development of these kinds of storms.
Raphael Portmann, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 597–615, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-597-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-597-2020, 2020
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In September 2018 an intense Mediterranean cyclone with structural similarities to a hurricane, a so-called medicane, caused severe damage in Greece. Its development was uncertain, even just a few days in advance. The reason for this was uncertainties in the jet stream over the North Atlantic 3 d prior to cyclogenesis that propagated into the Mediterranean. They led to an uncertain position of the upper-level disturbance and, as a result, of the position and thermal structure of the cyclone.
Peter Pfleiderer, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Tobias Geiger, and Marlene Kretschmer
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 313–324, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-313-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-313-2020, 2020
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Seasonal outlooks of Atlantic hurricane activity are required to enable risk reduction measures and disaster preparedness. Many seasonal forecasts are based on a selection of climate signals from which a statistical model is constructed. The crucial step in this approach is to select the most relevant predictors without overfitting. Here we show that causal effect networks can be used to identify the most robust predictors. Based on these predictors we construct a competitive forecast model.
Kirsten J. Mayer and Elizabeth A. Barnes
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 247–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-247-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-247-2020, 2020
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Short summary
Tropical storms are key for harnessing midlatitude weather prediction skill 2–8 weeks into the future. Recently, stratospheric activity was shown to impact tropical storminess and thus may also be important for midlatitude prediction skill on these timescales. This work analyzes two forecast systems to assess whether they capture this additional skill. We find there is enhanced prediction out through week 4 when both the tropical and stratospheric phenomena are active.
Christian Barthlott and Andrew I. Barrett
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 207–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-207-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-207-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The mesoscale convective system (MCS) that affected Germany at Pentecost 2014 was one of the most severe for decades. However, the predictability of this system was very low. By moving the model domain by just one grid point changed whether the MCS was successfully simulated or not. The decisive factor seems to be small differences in the initial track of the convection: cooler air near the coast inhibited development there, but tracks slightly more inland found more favorable conditions.
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Short summary
The prediction capabilities of GPS, operational (low-resolution) and targeted (high-resolution) radiosondes for data assimilation in a Mediterranean heavy precipitation event at different model resolutions are investigated. The results show that even if GPS provides accurate observations, their lack of vertical information hampers the improvement, demonstrating the need for assimilating radiosondes, where the location and timing of release was more determinant than the vertical resolution.
The prediction capabilities of GPS, operational (low-resolution) and targeted (high-resolution)...
