Weather and Climate Dynamics
Weather and Climate Dynamics
WCD
Articles | Volume 3, issue 3
Articles | Volume 3, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1063-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1063-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 3, issue 3
Research article
 | 
14 Sep 2022
Research article |  | 14 Sep 2022

Predictability of a tornado environment index from El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Arctic Oscillation

Michael K. Tippett, Chiara Lepore, and Michelle L. L’Heureux

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Cited articles

Allen, J. T., Tippett, M. K., and Sobel, A. H.: Influence of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation on tornado and hail frequency in the United States, Nat. Geosci., 8, 278–283, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2385, 2015. a, b
Barnston, A. G. and Tippett, M. K.: Predictions of Nino3.4 SST in CFSv1 and CFSv2: A Diagnostic Comparison, Clim. Dynam., 41, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1845-2, 2013. a
Benjamini, Y. and Hochberg, Y.: Controlling the false discovery rate: a practical and powerful approach to multiple testing, J. Roy. Stat. Soc. B, 57, 289–300, 1995. a
Brown, M. C. and Nowotarski, C. J.: Southeastern US tornado outbreak likelihood using daily climate indices, J. Climate, 33, 3229–3252, 2020. a
Childs, S. J., Schumacher, R. S., and Allen, J. T.: Cold-Season Tornadoes: Climatological and Meteorological Insights, Weather Forecast., 33, 671–691, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-17-0120.1, 2018. a
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Short summary
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) are phenomena that affect the weather and climate of North America. Although ENSO hails from from the tropical Pacific and the AO high above the North Pole, the spatial patterns of their influence on a North American tornado environment index are remarkably similar in computer models. We find that when ENSO and the AO act in concert, their impact is large, and when they oppose each other, their impact is small.
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