Articles | Volume 3, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-113-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-113-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
01 Feb 2022
Research article |
| 01 Feb 2022
| 01 Feb 2022
Automated detection and classification of synoptic-scale fronts from atmospheric data grids
Stefan Niebler
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institut für Informatik, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, Staudingerweg 9, 55128 Mainz, Germany
Annette Miltenberger
Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, Johann-Joachim-Becher-Weg 21 , 55128 Mainz, Germany
Bertil Schmidt
Institut für Informatik, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, Staudingerweg 9, 55128 Mainz, Germany
Peter Spichtinger
Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, Johann-Joachim-Becher-Weg 21 , 55128 Mainz, Germany
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Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 961–978, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-961-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-961-2024, 2024
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Ralf Weigel, Christoph Mahnke, Manuel Baumgartner, Martina Krämer, Peter Spichtinger, Nicole Spelten, Armin Afchine, Christian Rolf, Silvia Viciani, Francesco D'Amato, Holger Tost, and Stephan Borrmann
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In July and August 2017, the StratoClim mission took place in Nepal with eight flights of the M-55 Geophysica at up to 20 km in the Asian monsoon anticyclone. New particle formation (NPF) next to cloud ice was detected in situ by abundant nucleation-mode aerosols (> 6 nm) along with ice particles (> 3 µm). NPF was observed mainly below the tropopause, down to 15 % being non-volatile residues. Observed intra-cloud NPF indicates its importance for the composition in the tropical tropopause layer.
Rachel E. Hawker, Annette K. Miltenberger, Jonathan M. Wilkinson, Adrian A. Hill, Ben J. Shipway, Zhiqiang Cui, Richard J. Cotton, Ken S. Carslaw, Paul R. Field, and Benjamin J. Murray
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5439–5461, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5439-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5439-2021, 2021
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Annette K. Miltenberger and Paul R. Field
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3627–3642, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3627-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3627-2021, 2021
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The formation of ice in clouds is an important processes in mixed-phase and ice-phase clouds. However, the representation of ice formation in numerical models is highly uncertain. In the last decade, several new parameterizations for heterogeneous freezing have been proposed. Here, we investigate the impact of the parameterization choice on the representation of the convective cloud field and compare the impact to that of initial condition uncertainty.
Manuel Baumgartner, Ralf Weigel, Allan H. Harvey, Felix Plöger, Ulrich Achatz, and Peter Spichtinger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 15585–15616, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15585-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15585-2020, 2020
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The potential temperature is routinely used in atmospheric science. We review its derivation and suggest a new potential temperature, based on a temperature-dependent parameterization of the dry air's specific heat capacity. Moreover, we compare the new potential temperature to the common one and discuss the differences which become more important at higher altitudes. Finally, we indicate some consequences of using the new potential temperature in typical applications.
Martina Krämer, Christian Rolf, Nicole Spelten, Armin Afchine, David Fahey, Eric Jensen, Sergey Khaykin, Thomas Kuhn, Paul Lawson, Alexey Lykov, Laura L. Pan, Martin Riese, Andrew Rollins, Fred Stroh, Troy Thornberry, Veronika Wolf, Sarah Woods, Peter Spichtinger, Johannes Quaas, and Odran Sourdeval
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12569–12608, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12569-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12569-2020, 2020
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To improve the representations of cirrus clouds in climate predictions, extended knowledge of their properties and geographical distribution is required. This study presents extensive airborne in situ and satellite remote sensing climatologies of cirrus and humidity, which serve as a guide to cirrus clouds. Further, exemplary radiative characteristics of cirrus types and also in situ observations of tropical tropopause layer cirrus and humidity in the Asian monsoon anticyclone are shown.
Andreas Petzold, Patrick Neis, Mihal Rütimann, Susanne Rohs, Florian Berkes, Herman G. J. Smit, Martina Krämer, Nicole Spelten, Peter Spichtinger, Philippe Nédélec, and Andreas Wahner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8157–8179, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8157-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8157-2020, 2020
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The first analysis of 15 years of global-scale water vapour and relative humidity observations by passenger aircraft in the MOZAIC and IAGOS programmes resolves detailed features of water vapour and ice-supersaturated air in the mid-latitude tropopause. Key results provide in-depth insight into seasonal and regional variability and chemical signatures of ice-supersaturated air masses, including trend analyses, and show a close link to cirrus clouds and their highly important effects on climate.
Annette K. Miltenberger, Paul R. Field, Adrian H. Hill, and Andrew J. Heymsfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 7979–8001, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7979-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7979-2020, 2020
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Orographic wave clouds offer a natural laboratory to investigate cloud microphysical processes and their representation in atmospheric models. They impact the larger-scale flow by a vertical redistribution of moisture and aerosol. We use detailed observations from the ICE-L campaign to evaluate the representation of these clouds in a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model and explore the impact of environmental conditions on the vertical redistribution of moisture.
Manuel Baumgartner, Max Sagebaum, Nicolas R. Gauger, Peter Spichtinger, and André Brinkmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 5197–5212, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5197-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5197-2019, 2019
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Numerical models in atmospheric sciences need to include physical processes through parameterizations, which are not explicitly resolved, e.g., the formation of clouds. As a consequence, the parameterizations contain uncertain parameters. We suggest using the technique of algorithmic differentiation (AD) to identify the most uncertain parameters within parameterizations. In this study, we illustrate AD by analyzing a scheme for liquid clouds incorporated into a parcel model framework.
Hamish Gordon, Paul R. Field, Steven J. Abel, Mohit Dalvi, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Adrian A. Hill, Ben T. Johnson, Annette K. Miltenberger, Masaru Yoshioka, and Ken S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 15261–15289, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15261-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15261-2018, 2018
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Smoke from African fires is frequently transported across the Atlantic Ocean, where it interacts with clouds. We simulate the interaction of the smoke with the clouds, and the consequences of this for the solar radiation the clouds reflect. The simulations use a new regional configuration of the UK Met Office climate model. Our simulations indicate that the properties of the clouds, in particular their height and reflectivity, and the fractional cloud cover, are strongly affected by the smoke.
Annette K. Miltenberger, Paul R. Field, Adrian A. Hill, Ben J. Shipway, and Jonathan M. Wilkinson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10593–10613, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10593-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10593-2018, 2018
Annette K. Miltenberger, Paul R. Field, Adrian A. Hill, Phil Rosenberg, Ben J. Shipway, Jonathan M. Wilkinson, Robert Scovell, and Alan M. Blyth
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 3119–3145, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3119-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3119-2018, 2018
Manuel Baumgartner and Peter Spichtinger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2525–2546, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2525-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2525-2018, 2018
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Ice crystals are surrounded by liquid cloud droplets in mixed-phase clouds. The coexistence of ice and water is thermodynamically not stable and the particles will influence their respective growth by condensation. This effect is known as the Wegener–Bergeron–Findeisen process. In current models, the local interactions of the particles are neglected and they can only interact indirectly. This work proposes an approach to include local interactions and discusses some implications.
Qing Mu, Gerhard Lammel, Christian N. Gencarelli, Ian M. Hedgecock, Ying Chen, Petra Přibylová, Monique Teich, Yuxuan Zhang, Guangjie Zheng, Dominik van Pinxteren, Qiang Zhang, Hartmut Herrmann, Manabu Shiraiwa, Peter Spichtinger, Hang Su, Ulrich Pöschl, and Yafang Cheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 12253–12267, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12253-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12253-2017, 2017
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Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are hazardous pollutants with the largest emissions in East Asia. The regional WRF-Chem-PAH model has been developed to reflect the state-of-the-art understanding of current PAHs studies with several new or updated features. It is able to reasonably well simulate the concentration levels and particulate mass fractions of PAHs near the sources and at a remote outflow region of East Asia, in high spatial and temporal resolutions.
Marcus Klingebiel, André Ehrlich, Fanny Finger, Timo Röschenthaler, Suad Jakirlić, Matthias Voigt, Stefan Müller, Rolf Maser, Manfred Wendisch, Peter Hoor, Peter Spichtinger, and Stephan Borrmann
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 3485–3498, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-3485-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-3485-2017, 2017
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Microphysical and radiation measurements were collected with the unique AIRcraft TOwed Sensor Shuttle (AIRTOSS) – Learjet tandem platform. It is a combination of a Learjet 35A research aircraft and an instrumented aerodynamic bird, which can be detached from and retracted back to the aircraft during flight.
AIRTOSS and Learjet are equipped with radiative, cloud microphysical, trace gas,
and meteorological instruments to study cirrus clouds.
Elisa Johanna Spreitzer, Manuel Patrik Marschalik, and Peter Spichtinger
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 307–328, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-307-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-307-2017, 2017
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We developed a simple analytical model for describing subvisible cirrus clouds qualitatively. Using theory of dynamical systems we found two different states for the long-term behaviour of subvisible cirrus clouds, i.e. an attractor case (stable equilibrium point) and a limit cycle scenario. The transition between the states constitutes a Hopf bifurcation and is determined by environmental conditions such as vertical updraughts and temperature.
Thomas Berkemeier, Markus Ammann, Ulrich K. Krieger, Thomas Peter, Peter Spichtinger, Ulrich Pöschl, Manabu Shiraiwa, and Andrew J. Huisman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 8021–8029, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8021-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8021-2017, 2017
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Kinetic process models are efficient tools used to unravel the mechanisms governing chemical and physical transformation in multiphase atmospheric chemistry. However, determination of kinetic parameters such as reaction rate or diffusion coefficients from multiple data sets is often difficult or ambiguous. This study presents a novel optimization algorithm and framework to determine these parameters in an automated fashion and to gain information about parameter uncertainty and uniqueness.
Ralf Weigel, Peter Spichtinger, Christoph Mahnke, Marcus Klingebiel, Armin Afchine, Andreas Petzold, Martina Krämer, Anja Costa, Sergej Molleker, Philipp Reutter, Miklós Szakáll, Max Port, Lucas Grulich, Tina Jurkat, Andreas Minikin, and Stephan Borrmann
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 5135–5162, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-5135-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-5135-2016, 2016
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The subject of our study concerns measurements with optical array probes (OAPs) on fast-flying aircraft such as the G550 (HALO or HIAPER). At up to Mach 0.7 the effect of air compression upstream of underwing-mounted instruments and particles' inertia need consideration for determining ambient particle concentrations. Compared to conventional practices the introduced correction procedure eliminates ambiguities and exhibits consistency over flight speeds between 50 and 250 m s−.
Fanny Finger, Frank Werner, Marcus Klingebiel, André Ehrlich, Evelyn Jäkel, Matthias Voigt, Stephan Borrmann, Peter Spichtinger, and Manfred Wendisch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 7681–7693, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7681-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7681-2016, 2016
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Solar spectra of optical layer properties of cirrus have been derived from the first truly collocated airborne radiation measurements using an aircraft and a towed sensor platform. The measured layer properties differ slightly due to horizontal cirrus inhomogeneities and the influence of low-level water clouds. Applying a 1-D radiative transfer model sensitivity studies were performed. It was found that if a low-level cloud is not considered, the solar cooling of the cirrus is strongly overestimated.
D. Chang, Y. Cheng, P. Reutter, J. Trentmann, S. M. Burrows, P. Spichtinger, S. Nordmann, M. O. Andreae, U. Pöschl, and H. Su
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10325–10348, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10325-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10325-2015, 2015
E. Kienast-Sjögren, A. K. Miltenberger, B. P. Luo, and T. Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 7429–7447, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7429-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7429-2015, 2015
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Sensitivities of Lagrangian cirrus modelling on input data uncertainties have been examined. We found a strong dependence on the temporal resolution of the trajectories and underlying numerical weather prediction (NWP) data as well as on the specific moisture content. Furthermore, we found a large day-to-day variability in the vertical wind spectrum, demonstrating the necessity to apply NWP models with high spatial and temporal resolution for Lagrangian cirrus modelling.
A. Cirisan, B. P. Luo, I. Engel, F. G. Wienhold, M. Sprenger, U. K. Krieger, U. Weers, G. Romanens, G. Levrat, P. Jeannet, D. Ruffieux, R. Philipona, B. Calpini, P. Spichtinger, and T. Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 7341–7365, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7341-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7341-2014, 2014
H. Joos, P. Spichtinger, P. Reutter, and F. Fusina
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 6835–6852, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6835-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6835-2014, 2014
P. Spichtinger and M. Krämer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 9801–9818, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9801-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9801-2013, 2013
E. Kienast-Sjögren, P. Spichtinger, and K. Gierens
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 9021–9037, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9021-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9021-2013, 2013
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A linear assessment of barotropic Rossby wave propagation in different background flow configurations
Towards a process-oriented understanding of the impact of stochastic perturbations on the model climate
Deepening mechanisms of cut-off lows in the Southern Hemisphere and the role of jet streams: insights from eddy kinetic energy analysis
Large-scale perspective on extreme near-surface winds in the central North Atlantic
Divergent convective outflow in ICON deep-convection-permitting and parameterised deep convection simulations
Changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation over the 20th century
Life cycle dynamics of Greenland blocking from a potential vorticity perspective
Warm conveyor belt characteristics and impacts along the life cycle of extratropical cyclones: case studies and climatological analysis based on ERA5
Influence of radiosonde observations on the sharpness and altitude of the midlatitude tropopause in the ECMWF IFS
Analysing 23 years of warm-season derechos in France: a climatology and investigation of synoptic and environmental changes
A Lagrangian framework for detecting and characterizing the descent of foehn from Alpine to local scales
The upstream–downstream connection of North Atlantic and Mediterranean cyclones in semi-idealized simulations
Understanding the vertical temperature structure of recent record-shattering heatwaves
Persistent warm and cold spells in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics: regionalisation, synoptic-scale dynamics and temperature budget
Linking Gulf Stream air–sea interactions to the exceptional blocking episode in February 2019: a Lagrangian perspective
Process-based classification of Mediterranean cyclones using potential vorticity
The relation between Rossby wave-breaking events and low-level weather systems
Aquaplanet simulations with winter and summer hemispheres: model setup and circulation response to warming
Seasonally dependent increases in subweekly temperature variability over Southern Hemisphere landmasses detected in multiple reanalyses
Identification of high-wind features within extratropical cyclones using a probabilistic random forest – Part 2: Climatology over Europe
Cold wintertime air masses over Europe: where do they come from and how do they form?
Diabatic effects on the evolution of storm tracks
Yvonne Anderson, Jacob Perez, and Amanda C. Maycock
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 595–608, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-595-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-595-2025, 2025
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The impact of Arctic sea ice loss on the North Atlantic jet stream is debated, with some linking changes to ice loss and others to natural variability. This study uses a new method to explore how future sea ice loss will affect the jet stream. In half of the models, the jet shifts equatorward, but its speed and tilt are unchanged. Some models also exhibit more jet splitting. The results suggest that future sea ice loss is unlikely to significantly weaken the jet stream or make it more variable.
Lucas Pfister, Lena Wilhelm, Yuri Brugnara, Noemi Imfeld, and Stefan Brönnimann
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 571–594, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-571-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-571-2025, 2025
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Our work compares different machine learning approaches for creating long-term classifications of daily atmospheric circulation patterns using input data from surface meteorological observations. Our comparison reveals that a feedforward neural network performs best at this task. Using this model, we present a daily reconstruction of a commonly used weather type classification for central Europe that dates back to 1728.
Rachel H. White and Lualawi Mareshet Admasu
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 549–570, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-549-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-549-2025, 2025
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Mid-latitude atmospheric jet streams sometimes create "waveguides", which are thought to increase the chance of quasi-stationary waves – atmospheric circulation patterns that can lead to extreme weather events. We compare two methods of identifying atmospheric waveguides, finding that one method seems to be less impacted by the presence of waves and provides much stronger correlations with enhanced quasi-stationary waves, and recommend this method for future studies.
Clemens Spensberger, Kjersti Konstali, and Thomas Spengler
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 431–446, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-431-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-431-2025, 2025
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The transport of moisture from warmer and moister to colder and drier regions mainly occurs in brief and narrow bursts. In the mid-latitudes, such bursts are generally referred to as atmospheric rivers; in the Arctic they are often referred to as warm moist intrusions. We introduce a new definition to identify such bursts which is based primarily on their elongated structure. With this more general definition, we show that bursts in moisture transport occur frequently across all climate zones.
Jonna van Mourik, Hylke de Vries, and Michiel Baatsen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 413–429, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-413-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-413-2025, 2025
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Atmospheric blocking events are quasi-stationary high-pressure areas with large influences on our weather. In this study, we show the wide variety of zonal velocities possible for atmospheric blocking under the most used blocking indices. These include not only stationary blocks, but also eastward- and westward-moving blocks. These respective moving blocks are found to have different characteristics in size and location and have different impacts on our surface temperatures.
Alexander Lojko, Andrew C. Winters, Annika Oertel, Christiane Jablonowski, and Ashley E. Payne
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 387–411, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-387-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-387-2025, 2025
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Convective storms can produce intense anticyclonically rotating vortices (~10 km) defined by negative potential vorticity (NPV), which can elongate to larger scales (~1000 km). Our composite analysis shows that elongated NPV frequently occurs along the western North Atlantic tropopause, where we observed it enhancing jet stream kinematics. Elongated NPV may impinge on aviation turbulence and weather forecasting despite its small-scale origin.
Verónica Martínez-Andradas, Alvaro de la Cámara, Pablo Zurita-Gotor, François Lott, and Federico Serva
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 329–343, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-329-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-329-2025, 2025
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Global circulation model biases are present when simulating sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). These are important extreme phenomena that occur in the wintertime stratosphere, driven by the breaking of atmospheric waves. The present work shows that there is a large spread of the wave forcing during the development of SSWs in different models. In the mesosphere, gravity waves are found to force advection of the residual circulation, while planetary waves tend to decelerate the wind.
Marc Federer, Lukas Papritz, Michael Sprenger, and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 211–230, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-211-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-211-2025, 2025
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Although extratropical cyclones in the North Atlantic are among the most impactful midlatitude weather systems, their intensification is not entirely understood. Here, we explore how individual cyclones convert available potential energy (APE) into kinetic energy and relate these conversions to the synoptic development of the cyclones. By combining potential vorticity thinking with a local APE framework, we offer a novel perspective on established concepts in dynamic meteorology.
Hanin Binder and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 151–170, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-151-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-151-2025, 2025
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This study presents a systematic analysis of frequency anomalies and characteristics of extratropical cyclones during extremely wet, dry, windy, and calm winter and summer seasons in the extratropics based on 1050 years of present-day climate simulations. We show that anomalies in cyclone frequency, intensity, and stationarity are crucial to the occurrence of many extreme seasons and that these anomaly patterns exhibit substantial regional and seasonal variability.
Amelie Mayer and Volkmar Wirth
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 131–150, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-131-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-131-2025, 2025
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Although heatwaves are among the most dangerous weather-related hazards, their underlying mechanisms are not fully understood. Here, we investigate the formation of heatwaves in an air-parcel-based framework and distinguish the contributions from horizontal transport, vertical transport, and diabatic heating. We show that the results obtained depend profoundly on whether one compares the absolute contributions of the individual terms or, instead, their anomalies relative to climatology.
Svenja Christ, Marta Wenta, Christian M. Grams, and Annika Oertel
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 17–42, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-17-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-17-2025, 2025
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The detailed representation of sea surface temperature (SST) in numerical models is important for the prediction of atmospheric blocking in the North Atlantic. Yet the underlying physical processes are not fully understood. Using SST sensitivity experiments for a case study, we identify a physical pathway through which SST in the Gulf Stream region is linked to the downstream upper-level flow evolution in the North Atlantic.
Camille Cadiou and Pascal Yiou
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1-2025, 2025
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Extreme cold winter temperatures in Europe have huge societal impacts. This study focuses on extreme cold events, such as the winter of 1963 in France, which are expected to become rarer due to climate change. We use a light and efficient rare-event algorithm to simulate a large number of extreme cold winters over France to analyse their characteristics. We find that despite fewer occurrences, their intensity remains steady. We analyse prevailing atmospheric circulation during these events.
Fiona Fix, Georg Mayr, Achim Zeileis, Isabell Stucke, and Reto Stauffer
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1545–1560, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1545-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1545-2024, 2024
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Atmospheric deserts (ADs) are air masses that are transported away from hot, dry regions. Our study introduces this new concept. ADs can suppress or boost thunderstorms and potentially contribute to the formation of heat waves, which makes them relevant for forecasting extreme events. Using a novel detection method, we follow an AD directly from North Africa to Europe for a case in June 2022, allowing us to analyse the air mass at any time and investigate how it is modified along the way.
Suzanne L. Gray, Ambrogio Volonté, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, and Ben J. Harvey
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1523–1544, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1523-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1523-2024, 2024
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Sting jets occur in some of the most damaging cyclones impacting Europe. We present the first climatology of sting-jet cyclones over the major ocean basins. Cyclones with sting-jet precursors occur over the North Atlantic, North Pacific, and Southern Oceans, with implications for wind warnings. Precursor cyclones have distinct characteristics, even in reanalyses that are too coarse to fully resolve sting jets, evidencing the climatological consequences of strong diabatic cloud processes.
Claudio Sánchez, Suzanne Gray, Ambrogio Volonté, Florian Pantillon, Ségolène Berthou, and Silvio Davolio
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1429–1455, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1429-2024, 2024
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Medicane Ianos was a very intense cyclone that led to harmful impacts over Greece. We explore what processes are important for the forecasting of Medicane Ianos, with the use of the Met Office weather model. There was a preceding precipitation event before Ianos’s birth, whose energetics generated a bubble in the tropopause. This bubble created the necessary conditions for Ianos to emerge and strengthen, and the processes are enhanced in simulations with a warmer Mediterranean Sea.
Heini Wernli and Suzanne L. Gray
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1299–1408, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1299-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1299-2024, 2024
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The science of extratropical dynamics has reached a new level where the interplay of dry dynamics with effects of latent heating in clouds and other diabatic processes is considered central to the field. This review documents how research about the role of diabatic processes evolved over more than a century; it highlights that progress relied essentially on the integration of theory, field campaigns, novel diagnostics, and numerical modelling, and it outlines avenues for future research.
Philip Rupp, Jonas Spaeth, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Dominik Büeler, Michael Sprenger, and Thomas Birner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1287–1298, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1287-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1287-2024, 2024
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We quantify the occurrence of strong synoptic storms as contributing about 20 % to the uncertainty of subseasonal geopotential height forecasts over northern Europe. We further show that North Atlantic storms are less frequent, weaker and shifted southward following sudden stratospheric warming events, leading to a reduction in northern European forecast uncertainty.
Henrik Auestad, Clemens Spensberger, Andrea Marcheggiani, Paulo Ceppi, Thomas Spengler, and Tim Woollings
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1269–1286, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1269-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1269-2024, 2024
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Latent heating due to condensation can influence atmospheric circulation by strengthening or weakening horizontal temperature contrasts. Strong temperature contrasts intensify storms and imply the existence of strong upper tropospheric winds called jets. It remains unclear whether latent heating preferentially reinforces or abates the existing jet. We show that this disagreement is attributable to how the jet is defined, confirming that latent heating reinforces the jet.
Hugo Banderier, Alexandre Tuel, Tim Woollings, and Olivia Martius
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3029, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3029, 2024
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The jet stream is the main feature of the upper level flow, and drives the weather at the surface. It is stronger and better defined in winter, and has mostly been studied in that season. However, it is very important for (extreme) weather in summer. In this work, we improve and use two existing and complementary methods to study the jet stream(s) in the Euro-Atlantic sector, with a focus on summer. We find that our methods can verify each other and agree on interesting signals and trends.
Michele Filippucci, Simona Bordoni, and Paolo Davini
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1207–1222, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1207-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1207-2024, 2024
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Atmospheric blocking is a recurring phenomenon in midlatitudes, causing winter cold spells and summer heat waves. Current models underestimate it, hindering understanding of global warming's impact on extremes. In this paper, we investigate whether stochastic parameterizations can improve blocking representation. We find that blocking frequency representation slightly deteriorates, following a change in midlatitude winds. We conclude by suggesting a direction for future model development.
Duncan Pappert, Alexandre Tuel, Dim Coumou, Mathieu Vrac, and Olivia Martius
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2980, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2980, 2024
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This study examines the mechanisms that characterise long-lasting (persistent) and short hot spells in Europe in a comparative framework. By analysing weather data, we found that long spells in Southwestern Europe are typically preceded by dry soil conditions and driven by multiple persistence-inducing mechanisms. In contrast, short spells occur in a more transient atmospheric situation and exhibit fewer drivers. Understanding persistent heat extremes can help improve their prediction.
Florian Pantillon, Silvio Davolio, Elenio Avolio, Carlos Calvo-Sancho, Diego Saul Carrió, Stavros Dafis, Emanuele Silvio Gentile, Juan Jesus Gonzalez-Aleman, Suzanne Gray, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Platon Patlakas, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Didier Ricard, Antonio Ricchi, Claudio Sanchez, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1187–1205, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1187-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1187-2024, 2024
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Cyclone Ianos of September 2020 was a high-impact but poorly predicted medicane (Mediterranean hurricane). A community effort of numerical modelling provides robust results to improve prediction. It is found that the representation of local thunderstorms controlled the interaction of Ianos with a jet stream at larger scales and its subsequent evolution. The results help us understand the peculiar dynamics of medicanes and provide guidance for the next generation of weather and climate models.
George Pacey, Stephan Pfahl, and Lisa Schielicke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2978, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2978, 2024
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Cold fronts are often associated with areas of intense precipitation (cells) in the warm-season, but the drivers and environments of cells at different locations relative to the front are not well-understood. We show that cells ahead of the surface front have the highest amount of environmental instability and moisture. Also, low-level lifting is maximised ahead of the surface front and upper-level lifting is particularly important for cell initiation behind the front.
Sohan Suresan, Nili Harnik, and Rodrigo Caballero
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2745, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2745, 2024
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This study explores how extreme winter weather events across the Northern Hemisphere are influenced by the rare merging of the Atlantic and African jets, beyond the typical factors like NAO and ENSO. We identify unique surface signals and changes in cyclone paths associated with such persistent jet merging over the Atlantic, offering insights into these extreme winter weather patterns.
Dor Sandler, Hadas Saaroni, Baruch Ziv, Talia Tamarin-Brodsky, and Nili Harnik
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1103–1116, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1103-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1103-2024, 2024
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The North Atlantic region serves as a source of moisture and energy for Mediterranean storms. Its impact over the Levant region remains an open question due to its smaller weather systems and their longer distance from the ocean. We find an optimal circulation pattern which allows North Atlantic influence to reach farther into the eastern Mediterranean, thus making storms stronger and rainier. This may be relevant for future Mediterranean climate, which is projected to become much drier.
Raphaël Rousseau-Rizzi, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Jennifer L. Catto, Alice Portal, Yonatan Givon, and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1079–1101, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1079-2024, 2024
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We identify situations when rain and wind, rain and wave, or heat and dust hazards co-occur within Mediterranean cyclones. These hazard combinations are associated with risk to infrastructure, risk of coastal flooding and risk of respiratory issues. The presence of Mediterranean cyclones is associated with increased probability of all three hazard combinations. We identify weather configurations and cyclone structures, particularly those associated with specific co-occurrence combinations.
Jacob Perez, Amanda C. Maycock, Stephen D. Griffiths, Steven C. Hardiman, and Christine M. McKenna
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1061–1078, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1061-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1061-2024, 2024
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This study assesses existing methods for identifying the position and tilt of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet, proposing a new feature-based approach. The new method overcomes limitations of other methods, offering a more robust characterisation. Contrary to prior findings, the distribution of daily latitudes shows no distinct multi-modal structure, challenging the notion of preferred jet stream latitudes or regimes. This research enhances our understanding of North Atlantic dynamics.
Alice Portal, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Jennifer L. Catto, Yonatan Givon, and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1043–1060, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1043-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1043-2024, 2024
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Mediterranean cyclones are associated with extended rain, wind, and wave impacts. Although beneficial for regional water resources, their passage may induce extreme weather, which is especially impactful when multiple hazards combine together. Here we show how the passage of Mediterranean cyclones increases the likelihood of rain–wind and wave–wind compounding and how compound–cyclone statistics vary by region and season, depending on the presence of specific airflows around the cyclone.
Antonio Segalini, Jacopo Riboldi, Volkmar Wirth, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 997–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-997-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-997-2024, 2024
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Planetary Rossby waves are created by topography and evolve in time. In this work, an analytical solution of this classical problem is proposed under the approximation of linear wave dynamics. The theory is able to describe reasonably well the evolution of the perturbation and compares well with full nonlinear simulations. Several relevant cases with single and double zonal jets are assessed with the theoretical framework
Moritz Deinhard and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 927–942, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-927-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-927-2024, 2024
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Stochastic perturbations are an established technique to represent model uncertainties in numerical weather prediction. While such schemes are beneficial for the forecast skill, they can also change the mean state of the model. We analyse how different schemes modulate rapidly ascending airstreams and whether the changes to such weather systems are projected onto larger scales. We thereby provide a process-oriented perspective on how perturbations affect the model climate.
Henri Rossi Pinheiro, Kevin Ivan Hodges, and Manoel Alonso Gan
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 881–894, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-881-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-881-2024, 2024
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Cut-off lows (COLs) are weather systems with varied structures and lifecycles, from upper atmospheric to deep vortices. Deep, strong COLs are common around Australia and the southwestern Pacific in autumn and spring, while shallow, weak COLs occur more in summer near the Equator. Jet streams play a crucial role in COL development, with different jets influencing its depth and strength. The study also emphasizes the need for better representation of diabatic processes in reanalysis data.
Aleksa Stanković, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Rodrigo Caballero
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 821–837, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024, 2024
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The article studies extreme winds near the surface over the North Atlantic Ocean. These winds are caused by storms that pass through this region. The strongest storms that have occurred in the winters from 1950–2020 are studied in detail and compared to weaker but still strong storms. The analysis shows that the storms associated with the strongest winds are preceded by another older storm that travelled through the same region and made the conditions suitable for development of extreme winds.
Edward Groot, Patrick Kuntze, Annette Miltenberger, and Holger Tost
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 779–803, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-779-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-779-2024, 2024
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Deep convective clouds (thunderstorms), which may cause severe weather, tend to coherently organise into structured cloud systems. Accurate representation of these systems in models is difficult due to their complex dynamics and, in numerical simulations, the dependence of their dynamics on resolution. Here, the effect of convective organisation and geometry on their outflow winds (altitudes of 7–14 km) is investigated. Representation of their dynamics and outflows improves at higher resolution.
Stephen Outten and Richard Davy
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 753–762, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-753-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-753-2024, 2024
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The North Atlantic Oscillation is linked to wintertime weather events over Europe. One feature often overlooked is how much the climate variability explained by the NAO has changed over time. We show that there has been a considerable increase in the percentage variance explained by the NAO over the 20th century and that this is not reproduced by 50 CMIP6 climate models, which are generally biased too high. This has implications for projections and prediction of weather events in the region.
Seraphine Hauser, Franziska Teubler, Michael Riemer, Peter Knippertz, and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 633–658, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-633-2024, 2024
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Blocking over Greenland has substantial impacts on the weather and climate in mid- and high latitudes. This study applies a quasi-Lagrangian thinking on the dynamics of Greenland blocking and reveals two pathways of anticyclonic anomalies linked to the block. Moist processes were found to play a dominant role in the formation and maintenance of blocking. This emphasizes the necessity of the correct representation of moist processes in weather and climate models to realistically depict blocking.
Katharina Heitmann, Michael Sprenger, Hanin Binder, Heini Wernli, and Hanna Joos
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 537–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-537-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-537-2024, 2024
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Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are coherently ascending air streams that occur in extratropical cyclones where they form precipitation and often affect the large-scale flow. We quantified the key characteristics and impacts of WCBs and linked them to different phases in the cyclone life cycle and to different WCB branches. A climatology of these metrics revealed that WCBs are most intense during cyclone intensification and that the cyclonic and anticyclonic WCB branches show distinct differences.
Konstantin Krüger, Andreas Schäfler, Martin Weissmann, and George C. Craig
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 491–509, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-491-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-491-2024, 2024
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Initial conditions of current numerical weather prediction models insufficiently represent the sharp vertical gradients across the midlatitude tropopause. Observation-space data assimilation output is used to study the influence of assimilated radiosondes on the tropopause. The radiosondes reduce systematic biases of the model background and sharpen temperature and wind gradients in the analysis. Tropopause sharpness is still underestimated in the analysis, which may impact weather forecasts.
Lucas Fery and Davide Faranda
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 439–461, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-439-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-439-2024, 2024
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In this study, we analyse warm-season derechos – a type of severe convective windstorm – in France between 2000 and 2022, identifying 38 events. We compare their frequency and features with other countries. We also examine changes in the associated large-scale patterns. We find that convective instability has increased in southern Europe. However, the attribution of these changes to natural climate variability, human-induced climate change or a combination of both remains unclear.
Lukas Jansing, Lukas Papritz, and Michael Sprenger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 463–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-463-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-463-2024, 2024
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Using an innovative approach, the descent of foehn is diagnosed from a Lagrangian perspective based on 15 kilometer-scale simulations combined with online trajectories. The descent is confined to distinct hotspots in the immediate lee of local mountain peaks and chains. Two detailed case studies reveal a varying wave regime to be associated with the descent. Furthermore, additional controlling factors, such as the diurnal cycle, likewise influence the descent activity.
Alexander Scherrmann, Heini Wernli, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 419–438, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-419-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-419-2024, 2024
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We show that the formation of Mediterranean cyclones follows the presence of cyclones over the North Atlantic. The distinct regions of cyclone activity in the Mediterranean in the different seasons can be linked to the atmospheric state, in particular the position of the polar jet over the North Atlantic. With this we now better understand the processes that lead to the formation of Mediterranean cyclones. We used a novel simulation framework in which we directly show and probe this connection.
Belinda Hotz, Lukas Papritz, and Matthias Röthlisberger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 323–343, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-323-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-323-2024, 2024
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Analysing the vertical structure of temperature anomalies of recent record-breaking heatwaves reveals a complex four-dimensional interplay of anticyclone–heatwave interactions, with vertically strongly varying advective, adiabatic, and diabatic contributions to the respective temperature anomalies. The heatwaves featured bottom-heavy positive temperature anomalies, extending throughout the troposphere.
Alexandre Tuel and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 263–292, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-263-2024, 2024
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Warm and cold spells often have damaging consequences for agriculture, power demand, human health and infrastructure, especially when they occur over large areas and persist for a week or more. Here, we split the Northern Hemisphere extratropics into coherent regions where 3-week warm and cold spells in winter and summer are associated with the same large-scale circulation patterns. To understand their physical drivers, we analyse the associated circulation and temperature budget anomalies.
Marta Wenta, Christian M. Grams, Lukas Papritz, and Marc Federer
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 181–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-181-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-181-2024, 2024
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Our study links air–sea interactions over the Gulf Stream to an atmospheric block in February 2019. We found that over 23 % of air masses that were lifted into the block by cyclones interacted with the Gulf Stream. As cyclones pass over the Gulf Stream, they cause intense surface evaporation events, preconditioning the environment for the development of cyclones. This implies that air–sea interactions over the Gulf Stream affect the large-scale dynamics in the North Atlantic–European region.
Yonatan Givon, Or Hess, Emmanouil Flaounas, Jennifer Louise Catto, Michael Sprenger, and Shira Raveh-Rubin
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 133–162, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-133-2024, 2024
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A novel classification of Mediterranean cyclones is presented, enabling a separation between storms driven by different atmospheric processes. The surface impact of each cyclone class differs greatly by precipitation, winds, and temperatures, providing an invaluable tool to study the climatology of different types of Mediterranean storms and enhancing the understanding of their predictability, on both weather and climate scales.
Talia Tamarin-Brodsky and Nili Harnik
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 87–108, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-87-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-87-2024, 2024
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Synoptic waves in the atmosphere tend to follow a typical Rossby wave lifecycle, involving a linear growth stage followed by nonlinear and irreversible Rossby wave breaking (RWB). Here we take a new approach to study RWB events and their fundamental relation to weather systems by combining a storm-tracking technique and an RWB detection algorithm. The synoptic-scale dynamics leading to RWB is then examined by analyzing time evolution composites of cyclones and anticyclones during RWB events.
Sebastian Schemm and Matthias Röthlisberger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 43–63, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-43-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-43-2024, 2024
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Climate change has started to weaken atmospheric circulation during summer in the Northern Hemisphere. However, there is low agreement on the processes underlying changes in, for example, the stationarity of weather patterns or the seasonality of the jet response to warming. This study examines changes during summertime in an idealised setting and confirms some important changes in hemisphere-wide wave and jet characteristics under warming.
Patrick Martineau, Swadhin K. Behera, Masami Nonaka, Hisashi Nakamura, and Yu Kosaka
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1-2024, 2024
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The representation of subweekly near-surface temperature variability trends over the Southern Hemisphere landmasses is compared across multiple atmospheric reanalyses. It is found that there is generally a good agreement concerning the positive trends affecting South Africa and Australia in the spring, and South America in the summer. A more efficient generation of subweekly temperature variance by horizontal temperature fluxes contributes to the observed rise.
Lea Eisenstein, Benedikt Schulz, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Peter Knippertz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 981–999, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-981-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-981-2023, 2023
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Mesoscale high-wind features within extratropical cyclones can cause immense damage. In Part 1 of this work, we introduced RAMEFI (RAndom-forest-based MEsoscale wind Feature Identification), an objective, flexible identification tool for these wind features based on a probabilistic random forest. Here, we use RAMEFI to compile a climatology of the features over 19 extended winter seasons over western and central Europe, focusing on relative occurrence, affected areas and further characteristics.
Tiina Nygård, Lukas Papritz, Tuomas Naakka, and Timo Vihma
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 943–961, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-943-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-943-2023, 2023
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Despite the general warming trend, wintertime cold-air outbreaks in Europe have remained nearly as extreme and as common as decades ago. In this study, we identify six principal cold anomaly types over Europe in 1979–2020. We show the origins of various physical processes and their contributions to the formation of cold wintertime air masses.
Andrea Marcheggiani and Thomas Spengler
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 927–942, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-927-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-927-2023, 2023
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There is a gap between the theoretical understanding and model representation of moist diabatic effects on the evolution of storm tracks. We seek to bridge this gap by exploring the relationship between diabatic and adiabatic contributions to changes in baroclinicity. We find reversed behaviours in the lower and upper troposphere in the maintenance of baroclinicity. In particular, our study reveals a link between higher moisture availability and upper-tropospheric restoration of baroclinicity.
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Short summary
We use machine learning to create a network that detects and classifies four types of synoptic-scale weather fronts from ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis data. We present an application of our method, showing its use case in a scientific context. Additionally, our results show that multiple sources of training data are necessary to perform well on different regions, implying differences within those regions. Qualitative evaluation shows that the results are physically plausible.
We use machine learning to create a network that detects and classifies four types of...
