Weather and Climate Dynamics
Weather and Climate Dynamics
WCD
Articles | Volume 3, issue 4
Articles | Volume 3, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1273-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1273-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 3, issue 4
Research article
 | 
07 Nov 2022
Research article |  | 07 Nov 2022

The impact of microphysical uncertainty conditional on initial and boundary condition uncertainty under varying synoptic control

Takumi Matsunobu, Christian Keil, and Christian Barthlott

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Cited articles

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Bachmann, K., Keil, C., Craig, G. C., Weissmann, M., and Welzbacher, C. A.: Predictability of Deep Convection in Idealized and Operational Forecasts: Effects of Radar Data Assimilation, Orography, and Synoptic Weather Regime, Mon. Weather Rev., 148, 63–81, https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-19-0045.1, 2020. a, b
Bannister, R. N.: A review of operational methods of variational and ensemble-variational data assimilation, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 143, 607–633, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2982, 2017. a
Barthlott, C. and Hoose, C.: Aerosol effects on clouds and precipitation over central Europe in different weather regimes, J. Atmos. Sci., 75, 4247–4264, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-18-0110.1, 2018. a
Barthlott, C., Zarboo, A., Matsunobu, T., and Keil, C.: Importance of aerosols and shape of the cloud droplet size distribution for convective clouds and precipitation, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2153–2172, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2153-2022, 2022a. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j
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This study quantifies the impact of poorly constrained parameters used to represent aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions on precipitation and cloud forecasts associated with uncertainties in input atmospheric states. Uncertainties in these parameters have a non-negligible impact on daily precipitation amount and largely change the amount of cloud. The comparison between different weather situations reveals that the impact becomes more important when convection is triggered by local effects.
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