Articles | Volume 5, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-633-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-633-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
26 Apr 2024
Research article |
| 26 Apr 2024
| 26 Apr 2024
Life cycle dynamics of Greenland blocking from a potential vorticity perspective
Seraphine Hauser
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research – Troposphere Research (IMKTRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Franziska Teubler
Institute for Atmospheric Physics, Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz, Mainz, Germany
Michael Riemer
Institute for Atmospheric Physics, Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz, Mainz, Germany
Peter Knippertz
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research – Troposphere Research (IMKTRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Christian M. Grams
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research – Troposphere Research (IMKTRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Related authors
Seraphine Hauser, Franziska Teubler, Michael Riemer, and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 937–958, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-937-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-937-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
The relative roles of dry and moist processes in blocking formation are still not well understood, especially across different blocking types and regions. Using a potential vorticity framework, we study the evolution of large-scale anticyclonic circulation anomalies that are linked to four distinct blocking patterns. We find that the development of anomaly amplitude is shaped mainly by their pathway, which determines the balance between dry and moist contributions, rather than the blocking type.
Seraphine Hauser, Franziska Teubler, Michael Riemer, Peter Knippertz, and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 399–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-399-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Blocking describes a flow configuration in the midlatitudes where stationary high-pressure systems block the propagation of weather systems. This study combines three individual perspectives that capture the dynamics and importance of various processes in the formation of a major blocking in 2016 from a weather regime perspective. In future work, this framework will enable a holistic view of the dynamics and the role of moist processes in different life cycle stages of blocked weather regimes.
Franziska Teubler, Michael Riemer, Christopher Polster, Christian M. Grams, Seraphine Hauser, and Volkmar Wirth
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 265–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-265-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-265-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Weather regimes govern an important part of the sub-seasonal variability of the mid-latitude circulation. The year-round dynamics of blocked regimes in the Atlantic European region are investigated in over 40 years of data. We show that the dynamics between the regimes are on average very similar. Within the regimes, the main variability – starting from the characteristics of dynamical processes alone – dominates and transcends the variability in season and types of transitions.
N'Datchoh Evelyne Touré, Peter Knippertz, Andreas H. Fink, Marlon Maranan, Julia Bruckert, Gholamali Hoshyaripour, Jasmin Haupt, and Arona Diedhiou
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3128, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3128, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
Rapid urbanization in Africa drives increasing air pollution. Once released, pollutants can travel long distances and impact remote areas. Here, we investigate the dispersion of pollutants from cities along the West African Guinean Coast by the land-sea breeze (LSB) circulation during the dry season using idealized tracer experiments with a weather prediction model. The experiments quantify the typical inland penetration of pollutants and show a transport to the Atlantic Ocean aloft.
Seraphine Hauser, Franziska Teubler, Michael Riemer, and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 937–958, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-937-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-937-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
The relative roles of dry and moist processes in blocking formation are still not well understood, especially across different blocking types and regions. Using a potential vorticity framework, we study the evolution of large-scale anticyclonic circulation anomalies that are linked to four distinct blocking patterns. We find that the development of anomaly amplitude is shaped mainly by their pathway, which determines the balance between dry and moist contributions, rather than the blocking type.
Maurus Borne, Peter Knippertz, Michael Rennie, and Martin Weissmann
Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 489–505, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-489-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-489-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows that Aeolus satellite wind lidar observations significantly improve wind forecasts and that these improvements lead to more accurate rainfall predictions, particularly at longer lead times and during winter seasons in the extratropics. The benefits are likely due to better representation of large-scale atmospheric features such as jet streams and Rossby waves, highlighting Aeolus's value for numerical weather prediction.
Christian M. Grams
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6385, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6385, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
The study discusses key characteristics, impact on surface weather, and trends of year-round North Atlantic European weather regimes for 1950–2024. Novel insight is gained in inter-annual variability and recent trends in regime occurrence. Regimes are important because they affect weather in Europe for several days to a few weeks and enable weather forecasts several weeks ahead. Regimes also affect extremes, such as heat waves. Data is published at Zenodo (doi:10.5281/zenodo.17080146).
Hannah Meyer, Konrad Kandler, Sylvain Dupont, Jerónimo Escribano, Jessica Girdwood, George Nikolich, Andrés Alastuey, Vicken Etyemezian, Cristina González-Flórez, Adolfo González-Romero, Tareq Hussein, Mark Irvine, Peter Knippertz, Ottmar Möhler, Xavier Querol, Chris Stopford, Franziska Vogel, Frederik Weis, Andreas Wieser, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, and Martina Klose
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 19, 21–61, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-21-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-21-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Mineral dust particles emitted from dry soils are of various sizes, yet the abundance of very large particles is not well understood. Here we measured the dust size distribution from fine to giant particles at an emission source during a field campaign in Jordan (J-WADI) using multiple instruments. Our findings show that large particles make up a significant part of the total dust mass. This knowledge is essential to improve climate models and to predict dust impacts on climate and environment.
Lina Lucas, Christian Barthlott, Corinna Hoose, and Peter Knippertz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 18527–18548, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-18527-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-18527-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We studied how climate change and cleaner air could affect severe storms in Germany. Using high-resolution weather simulations of past supercell storms under warmer and less polluted conditions, we found that storms may become more intense, with heavier rainfall and larger hailstones. These changes suggest an increased risk of damage in the future. Our findings help improve understanding of how extreme storms may evolve in a changing climate.
Luise J. Fischer, David N. Bresch, Dominik Büeler, Christian M. Grams, Robin Noyelle, Matthias Röthlisberger, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 1027–1043, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1027-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1027-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric flows over the North Atlantic can be meaningfully classified into weather regimes, and climate simulations suggest that the regime frequencies might change in the future. We provide a quantitative framework that helps assess whether these regime frequency changes are relevant to understanding climate change signals in precipitation. At least in our example application, in most regions, regime frequency changes explain little of the projected precipitation changes.
Tanguy Jonville, Maurus Borne, Cyrille Flamant, Juan Cuesta, Olivier Bock, Pierre Bosser, Christophe Lavaysse, Andreas Fink, and Peter Knippertz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 9765–9786, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-9765-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-9765-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical waves structure the atmosphere. Four types of tropical waves (equatorial Rossby – ER, Kelvin, MRG-TD1, and MRG-TD2 – mixed Rossby gravity–tropical depressions) are studied using filters, satellite measurements, and in situ data from the Clouds–Atmosphere Dynamics–Dust Interaction in West Africa (CADDIWA) campaign held in September 2021 in Cabo Verde. ER waves impact temperature and humidity above 2500 m, MRG-TD1 around 3500 m, and MRG-TD2 around 2000 m. Interactions between these waves favor tropical cyclone formation.
Annie Y.-Y. Chang, Shaun Harrigan, Maria-Helena Ramos, Massimiliano Zappa, Christian M. Grams, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and Konrad Bogner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3411, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3411, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a machine learning-aided hybrid forecasting framework to improve early warnings of low flows in the European Alps. It combines weather regime information, streamflow observations, and model simulations (EFAS). Even using only weather regime data improves predictions over climatology, while integrating different data sources yields the best result, emphasizing the value of integrating diverse data sources.
Christopher Johannes Diekmann, Matthias Schneider, Peter Knippertz, Tim Trent, Hartmut Boesch, Amelie Ninja Roehling, John Worden, Benjamin Ertl, Farahnaz Khosrawi, and Frank Hase
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5409–5431, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5409-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5409-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The West African Monsoon is the main source of rainfall over West Africa, and understanding the development of the monsoon remains challenging due to complex interactions of atmospheric processes. We make use of new satellite datasets of isotopes in tropospheric water vapour to characterize processes controlling the monsoon convection. We find that comparing different water vapour isotopes reveals effects of rain–vapour interactions and air mass transport.
Marc Federer, Lukas Papritz, Michael Sprenger, and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 211–230, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-211-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-211-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Although extratropical cyclones in the North Atlantic are among the most impactful midlatitude weather systems, their intensification is not entirely understood. Here, we explore how individual cyclones convert available potential energy (APE) into kinetic energy and relate these conversions to the synoptic development of the cyclones. By combining potential vorticity thinking with a local APE framework, we offer a novel perspective on established concepts in dynamic meteorology.
Matthias Fischer, Peter Knippertz, and Carsten Proppe
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 113–130, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-113-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-113-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The West African monsoon is vital for millions but difficult to represent with numerical models. Our research aims at improving monsoon simulations by optimizing three model parameters – entrainment rate, ice fall speed, and soil moisture evaporation – using an advanced surrogate-based multi-objective optimization framework. Results show that tuning these parameters can sometimes improve certain monsoon characteristics, however at the expense of others, highlighting the power of our approach.
Svenja Christ, Marta Wenta, Christian M. Grams, and Annika Oertel
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 17–42, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-17-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-17-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The detailed representation of sea surface temperature (SST) in numerical models is important for the prediction of atmospheric blocking in the North Atlantic. Yet the underlying physical processes are not fully understood. Using SST sensitivity experiments for a case study, we identify a physical pathway through which SST in the Gulf Stream region is linked to the downstream upper-level flow evolution in the North Atlantic.
Selina M. Kiefer, Patrick Ludwig, Sebastian Lerch, Peter Knippertz, and Joaquim G. Pinto
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2955, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2955, 2024
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Weather forecasts 14 days in advance generally have a low skill but not always. We identify reasons thereof depending on the atmospheric flow, shown by Weather Regimes (WRs). If the WRs during the forecasts follow climatological patterns, forecast skill is increased. The forecast of a cold-wave day is better when the European Blocking WR (high pressure around the British Isles) is present a few days before a cold-wave day. These results can be used to assess the reliability of predictions.
Joshua Dorrington, Marta Wenta, Federico Grazzini, Linus Magnusson, Frederic Vitart, and Christian M. Grams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2995–3012, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall is the leading weather-related source of damages in Europe, but it is still difficult to predict on long timescales. A recent example of this was the devastating floods in the Italian region of Emiglia Romagna in May 2023. We present perspectives based on large-scale dynamical information that allows us to better understand and predict such events.
Moritz Deinhard and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 927–942, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-927-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-927-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Stochastic perturbations are an established technique to represent model uncertainties in numerical weather prediction. While such schemes are beneficial for the forecast skill, they can also change the mean state of the model. We analyse how different schemes modulate rapidly ascending airstreams and whether the changes to such weather systems are projected onto larger scales. We thereby provide a process-oriented perspective on how perturbations affect the model climate.
Christoph Fischer, Andreas H. Fink, Elmar Schömer, Marc Rautenhaus, and Michael Riemer
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4213–4228, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4213-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4213-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a method for identifying and tracking 3-D potential vorticity structures within African easterly waves (AEWs). Each identified structure is characterized by descriptors, including its 3-D position and orientation, which have been validated through composite comparisons. A trough-centric perspective on the descriptors reveals the evolution and distinct characteristics of AEWs. These descriptors serve as valuable statistical inputs for the study of AEW-related phenomena.
Matthias Fischer, Peter Knippertz, Roderick van der Linden, Alexander Lemburg, Gregor Pante, Carsten Proppe, and John H. Marsham
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 511–536, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-511-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our research enhances the understanding of the complex dynamics within the West African monsoon system by analyzing the impact of specific model parameters on its characteristics. Employing surrogate models, we identified critical factors such as the entrainment rate and the fall velocity of ice. Precise definition of these parameters in weather models could improve forecast accuracy, thus enabling better strategies to manage and reduce the impact of weather events.
Marta Wenta, Christian M. Grams, Lukas Papritz, and Marc Federer
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 181–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-181-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-181-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study links air–sea interactions over the Gulf Stream to an atmospheric block in February 2019. We found that over 23 % of air masses that were lifted into the block by cyclones interacted with the Gulf Stream. As cyclones pass over the Gulf Stream, they cause intense surface evaporation events, preconditioning the environment for the development of cyclones. This implies that air–sea interactions over the Gulf Stream affect the large-scale dynamics in the North Atlantic–European region.
Maurus Borne, Peter Knippertz, Martin Weissmann, Benjamin Witschas, Cyrille Flamant, Rosimar Rios-Berrios, and Peter Veals
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 561–581, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-561-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-561-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the quality of Aeolus wind measurements over the tropical Atlantic. The results identified the accuracy and precision of the Aeolus wind measurements and the potential source of errors. For instance, the study revealed atmospheric conditions that can deteriorate the measurement quality, such as weaker laser signal in cloudy or dusty conditions, and confirmed the presence of an orbital-dependant bias. These results can help to improve the Aeolus wind measurement algorithm.
Julian F. Quinting, Christian M. Grams, Edmund Kar-Man Chang, Stephan Pfahl, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 65–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-65-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-65-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Research in the last few decades has revealed that rapidly ascending airstreams in extratropical cyclones have an important effect on the evolution of downstream weather and predictability. In this study, we show that the occurrence of these airstreams over the North Pacific is modulated by tropical convection. Depending on the modulation, known atmospheric circulation patterns evolve quite differently, which may affect extended-range predictions in the Atlantic–European region.
Hyunju Jung, Peter Knippertz, Yvonne Ruckstuhl, Robert Redl, Tijana Janjic, and Corinna Hoose
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 1111–1134, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1111-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1111-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A narrow rainfall belt in the tropics is an important feature for large-scale circulations and the global water cycle. The accurate simulation of this rainfall feature has been a long-standing problem, with the reasons behind that unclear. We present a novel diagnostic tool that allows us to disentangle processes important for rainfall, which changes due to modifications in model. Using our diagnostic tool, one can potentially identify sources of uncertainty in weather and climate models.
Lea Eisenstein, Benedikt Schulz, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Peter Knippertz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 981–999, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-981-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-981-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mesoscale high-wind features within extratropical cyclones can cause immense damage. In Part 1 of this work, we introduced RAMEFI (RAndom-forest-based MEsoscale wind Feature Identification), an objective, flexible identification tool for these wind features based on a probabilistic random forest. Here, we use RAMEFI to compile a climatology of the features over 19 extended winter seasons over western and central Europe, focusing on relative occurrence, affected areas and further characteristics.
Annika Oertel, Annette K. Miltenberger, Christian M. Grams, and Corinna Hoose
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8553–8581, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8553-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8553-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are cloud- and precipitation-producing airstreams in extratropical cyclones that are important for the large-scale flow and cloud radiative forcing. We analyze cloud formation processes during WCB ascent in a two-moment microphysics scheme. Quantification of individual diabatic heating rates shows the importance of condensation, vapor deposition, rain evaporation, melting, and cloud-top radiative cooling for total heating and WCB-related potential vorticity structure.
Valerian Hahn, Ralf Meerkötter, Christiane Voigt, Sonja Gisinger, Daniel Sauer, Valéry Catoire, Volker Dreiling, Hugh Coe, Cyrille Flamant, Stefan Kaufmann, Jonas Kleine, Peter Knippertz, Manuel Moser, Philip Rosenberg, Hans Schlager, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, and Jonathan Taylor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8515–8530, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8515-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8515-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
During the DACCIWA campaign in West Africa, we found a 35 % increase in the cloud droplet concentration that formed in a polluted compared with a less polluted environment and a decrease of 17 % in effective droplet diameter. Radiative transfer simulations, based on the measured cloud properties, reveal that these low-level polluted clouds radiate only 2.6 % more energy back to space, compared with a less polluted cloud. The corresponding additional decrease in temperature is rather small.
Axel Seifert, Vanessa Bachmann, Florian Filipitsch, Jochen Förstner, Christian M. Grams, Gholam Ali Hoshyaripour, Julian Quinting, Anika Rohde, Heike Vogel, Annette Wagner, and Bernhard Vogel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6409–6430, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6409-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate how mineral dust can lead to the formation of cirrus clouds. Dusty cirrus clouds lead to a reduction in solar radiation at the surface and, hence, a reduced photovoltaic power generation. Current weather prediction systems are not able to predict this interaction between mineral dust and cirrus clouds. We have developed a new physical description of the formation of dusty cirrus clouds. Overall we can show a considerable improvement in the forecast quality of clouds and radiation.
Seraphine Hauser, Franziska Teubler, Michael Riemer, Peter Knippertz, and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 399–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-399-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Blocking describes a flow configuration in the midlatitudes where stationary high-pressure systems block the propagation of weather systems. This study combines three individual perspectives that capture the dynamics and importance of various processes in the formation of a major blocking in 2016 from a weather regime perspective. In future work, this framework will enable a holistic view of the dynamics and the role of moist processes in different life cycle stages of blocked weather regimes.
Patrick Ludwig, Florian Ehmele, Mário J. Franca, Susanna Mohr, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Uwe Ehret, Hendrik Feldmann, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Michael Kunz, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1287–1311, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation in July 2021 led to widespread floods in western Germany and neighboring countries. The event was among the five heaviest precipitation events of the past 70 years in Germany, and the river discharges exceeded by far the statistical 100-year return values. Simulations of the event under future climate conditions revealed a strong and non-linear effect on flood peaks: for +2 K global warming, an 18 % increase in rainfall led to a 39 % increase of the flood peak in the Ahr river.
Franziska Teubler, Michael Riemer, Christopher Polster, Christian M. Grams, Seraphine Hauser, and Volkmar Wirth
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 265–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-265-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-265-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Weather regimes govern an important part of the sub-seasonal variability of the mid-latitude circulation. The year-round dynamics of blocked regimes in the Atlantic European region are investigated in over 40 years of data. We show that the dynamics between the regimes are on average very similar. Within the regimes, the main variability – starting from the characteristics of dynamical processes alone – dominates and transcends the variability in season and types of transitions.
Susanna Mohr, Uwe Ehret, Michael Kunz, Patrick Ludwig, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Florian Ehmele, Hendrik Feldmann, Mário J. Franca, Christian Gattke, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Marc Scheibel, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 525–551, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The flood event in July 2021 was one of the most severe disasters in Europe in the last half century. The objective of this two-part study is a multi-disciplinary assessment that examines the complex process interactions in different compartments, from meteorology to hydrological conditions to hydro-morphological processes to impacts on assets and environment. In addition, we address the question of what measures are possible to generate added value to early response management.
Behrooz Keshtgar, Aiko Voigt, Corinna Hoose, Michael Riemer, and Bernhard Mayer
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 115–132, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-115-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-115-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting extratropical cyclones is challenging due to many physical factors influencing their behavior. One such factor is the impact of heating and cooling of the atmosphere by the interaction between clouds and radiation. In this study, we show that cloud-radiative heating (CRH) increases the intensity of an idealized cyclone and affects its predictability. We find that CRH affects the cyclone mostly via increasing latent heat release and subsequent changes in the synoptic circulation.
Lea Eisenstein, Benedikt Schulz, Ghulam A. Qadir, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Peter Knippertz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1157–1182, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1157-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1157-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Mesoscale high-wind features within extratropical cyclones can cause immense damage. Here, we present RAMEFI, a novel approach to objectively identify the wind features based on a probabilistic random forest. RAMEFI enables a wide range of applications such as probabilistic predictions for the occurrence or a multi-decadal climatology of these features, which will be the focus of Part 2 of the study, with the goal of improving wind and, specifically, wind gust forecasts in the long run.
Christoph Fischer, Andreas H. Fink, Elmar Schömer, Roderick van der Linden, Michael Maier-Gerber, Marc Rautenhaus, and Michael Riemer
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4447–4468, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4447-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4447-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Potential vorticity (PV) analysis plays a central role in studying atmospheric dynamics. For example, anomalies in the PV field near the tropopause are linked to extreme weather events. In this study, an objective strategy to identify these anomalies is presented and evaluated. As a novel concept, it can be applied to three-dimensional (3-D) data sets. Supported by 3-D visualizations, we illustrate advantages of this new analysis over existing studies along a case study.
Edgar Dolores-Tesillos, Franziska Teubler, and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 429–448, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-429-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-429-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Strong winds caused by extratropical cyclones represent a costly hazard for European countries. Here, based on CESM-LENS coupled climate simulations, we show that future changes of such strong winds are characterized by an increased magnitude and extended footprint southeast of the cyclone center. This intensification is related to a combination of increased diabatic heating and changes in upper-level wave dynamics.
Adrien Deroubaix, Laurent Menut, Cyrille Flamant, Peter Knippertz, Andreas H. Fink, Anneke Batenburg, Joel Brito, Cyrielle Denjean, Cheikh Dione, Régis Dupuy, Valerian Hahn, Norbert Kalthoff, Fabienne Lohou, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Guillaume Siour, Paolo Tuccella, and Christiane Voigt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3251–3273, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3251-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3251-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
During the summer monsoon in West Africa, pollutants emitted in urbanized areas modify cloud cover and precipitation patterns. We analyze these patterns with the WRF-CHIMERE model, integrating the effects of aerosols on meteorology, based on the numerous observations provided by the Dynamics-Aerosol-Climate-Interactions campaign. This study adds evidence to recent findings that increased pollution levels in West Africa delay the breakup time of low-level clouds and reduce precipitation.
Julian F. Quinting, Christian M. Grams, Annika Oertel, and Moritz Pickl
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 731–744, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-731-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-731-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study applies novel artificial-intelligence-based models that allow the identification of one specific weather system which affects the midlatitude circulation. We show that the models yield similar results as their trajectory-based counterpart, which requires data at higher spatiotemporal resolution and is computationally more expensive. Overall, we aim to show how deep learning methods can be used efficiently to support process understanding of biases in weather prediction models.
Julian F. Quinting and Christian M. Grams
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 715–730, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-715-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-715-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Physical processes in weather systems importantly affect the midlatitude large-scale circulation. This study introduces an artificial-intelligence-based framework which allows the identification of an important weather system – the so-called warm conveyor belt (WCB) – at comparably low computational costs and from data at low spatial and temporal resolution. The framework thus newly enables the systematic investigation of WCBs in large data sets such as climate model projections.
Christopher J. Diekmann, Matthias Schneider, Benjamin Ertl, Frank Hase, Omaira García, Farahnaz Khosrawi, Eliezer Sepúlveda, Peter Knippertz, and Peter Braesicke
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5273–5292, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5273-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5273-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The joint analysis of different stable water isotopes in water vapour is a powerful tool for investigating atmospheric moisture pathways. This paper presents a novel global and multi-annual dataset of H2O and HDO in mid-tropospheric water vapour by using data from the satellite sensor Metop/IASI. Due to its unique combination of coverage and resolution in space and time, this dataset is highly promising for studying the hydrological cycle and its representation in weather and climate models.
Fabienne Dahinden, Franziska Aemisegger, Heini Wernli, Matthias Schneider, Christopher J. Diekmann, Benjamin Ertl, Peter Knippertz, Martin Werner, and Stephan Pfahl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16319–16347, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16319-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16319-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use high-resolution numerical isotope modelling and Lagrangian backward trajectories to identify moisture transport pathways and governing physical and dynamical processes that affect the free-tropospheric humidity and isotopic variability over the eastern subtropical North Atlantic. Furthermore, we conduct a thorough isotope modelling validation with aircraft and remote-sensing observations of water vapour isotopes.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, Samiro Khodayar, and Peter Knippertz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 561–580, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-561-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-561-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The prediction capabilities of GPS, operational (low-resolution) and targeted (high-resolution) radiosondes for data assimilation in a Mediterranean heavy precipitation event at different model resolutions are investigated. The results show that even if GPS provides accurate observations, their lack of vertical information hampers the improvement, demonstrating the need for assimilating radiosondes, where the location and timing of release was more determinant than the vertical resolution.
Franziska Teubler and Michael Riemer
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 535–559, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-535-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-535-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Rossby wave packets impact all aspects of midlatitude weather systems, from their climatological distribution to predictability. Case studies suggest an important role of latent heat release in clouds. We investigate thousands of wave packets with a novel diagnostic. We demonstrate that, on average, the impact of moist processes is substantially different between troughs and ridges and that dry conceptual models of wave packet dynamics should be extended.
Cited articles
Benedict, J. J., Lee, S., and Feldstein, S. B.: Synoptic view of the North Atlantic Oscillation, J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 121–144, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2004)061<0121:SVOTNA>2.0.CO;2, 2004. a
Büeler, D., Ferranti, L., Magnusson, L., Quinting, J. F., and Grams, C. M.: Year-round sub-seasonal forecast skill for Atlantic–European weather regimes, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 147, 4283–4309, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4178, 2021. a, b, c, d
Cassou, C.: Intraseasonal interaction between the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation, Nature, 455, 523–527, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature07286, 2008. a
Cattiaux, J., Vautard, R., Cassou, C., Yiou, P., Masson-Delmotte, V., and Codron, F.: Winter 2010 in Europe: A cold extreme in a warming climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L20704, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044613, 2010. a, b
Chen, X. and Luo, D.: Arctic sea ice decline and continental cold anomalies: Upstream and downstream effects of Greenland blocking, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 3411–3419, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL072387, 2017. a
Cheung, H. N., Omrani, N. E., Ogawa, F., Keenlyside, N., Nakamura, H., and Zhou, W.: Pacific oceanic front amplifies the impact of Atlantic oceanic front on North Atlantic blocking, npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 6, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00370-x, 2023. a
Croci-Maspoli, M. and Davies, H. C.: Key dynamical features of the 2005/06 European winter, Mon. Weather Rev., 137, 664–678, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2533.1, 2009. a
Croci-Maspoli, M., Schwierz, C., and Davies, H. C.: A multifaceted climatology of atmospheric blocking and its recent linear trend, J. Climate, 20, 633–649, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4029.1, 2007. a, b
Davini, P. and D'Andrea, F.: Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking representation in global climate models: Twenty years of improvements?, J. Climate, 29, 8823–8840, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0242.1, 2016. a
Davis, C. A.: Piecewise Potential Vorticity Inversion, J. Atmos. Sci., 49, 1397–1411, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1992)049<1397:PPVI>2.0.CO;2, 1992. a
Davis, C. A. and Emanuel, K. A.: Potential Vorticity Diagnostics of Cyclogenesis, Mon. Weather Rev., 119, 1929–1953, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1991)119<1929:PVDOC>2.0.CO;2, 1991. a
Davis, C. A., Stoelinga, M. T., and Kuo, Y.-H.: The Integrated Effect of Condensation in Numerical Simulations of Extratropical Cyclogenesis, Mon. Weather Rev., 121, 2309–2330, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1993)121<2309:TIEOCI>2.0.CO;2, 1993. a
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J.-J., Park, B.-K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J.-N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011. a, b
Drouard, M., Woollings, T., Sexton, D. M. H., and McSweeney, C. F.: Dynamical differences between short and long blocks in the Northern Hemisphere, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 126, e2020JD034082, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD034082, 2021. a
Duchon, C. E.: Lanczos Filtering in One and Two Dimensions, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 18, 1016–1022, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1979)018<1016:LFIOAT>2.0.CO;2, 1979. a
Ertel, H.: Ein neuer hydrodynamischer Erhaltungssatz, Naturwissenschaften, 30, 543–544, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01475602, 1942. a
Feldstein, S. B.: Fundamental mechanisms of the growth and decay of the PNA teleconnection pattern, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 128, 775–796, https://doi.org/10.1256/0035900021643683, 2002. a
Feldstein, S. B.: The dynamics of NAO teleconnection pattern growth and decay, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 129, 901–924, https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.02.76, 2003. a, b
Grams, C. M., Wernli, H., Böttcher, M., Čampa, J., Corsmeier, U., Jones, S. C., Keller, J. H., Lenz, C.-J., and Wiegand, L.: The key role of diabatic processes in modifying the upper-tropospheric wave guide: a North Atlantic case-study, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 2174–2193, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.891, 2011. a, b, c
Grams, C. M., Magnusson, L., and Madonna, E.: An Atmospheric Dynamics Perspective on the Amplification and Propagation of Forecast Error in Numerical Weather Prediction Models: A Case Study, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 144, 2577–2591, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3353, 2018. a, b
Grumm, R. H.: The Central European and Russian Heat Event of July–August 2010, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 92, 1285–1296, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011BAMS3174.1, 2011. a
Hanna, E., Cropper, T. E., Hall, R. J., and Cappelen, J.: Greenland Blocking Index 1851–2015: a regional climate change signal, Int. J. Climatol., 36, 4847–4861, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4673, 2016. a
Hanna, E., Cappelen, J., Fettweis, X., Mernild, S. H., Mote, T. L., Mottram, R., Steffen, K., Ballinger, T. J., and Hall, R. J.: Greenland surface air temperature changes from 1981 to 2019 and implications for ice-sheet melt and mass-balance change, Int. J. Climatol., 41, E1336–E1352, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6771, 2021. a
Hauser, S., Mueller, S., Chen, X., Chen, T.-C., Pinto, J. G., and Grams, C. M.: The Linkage of Serial Cyclone Clustering in Western Europe and Weather Regimes in the North Atlantic-European Region in Boreal Winter, Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2022GL101900, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101900, 2023a. a
Hauser, S., Teubler, F., Riemer, M., Knippertz, P., and Grams, C. M.: Towards a holistic understanding of blocked regime dynamics through a combination of complementary diagnostic perspectives, Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 399–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-399-2023, 2023b. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k, l, m, n, o, p, q, r, s, t, u, v, w, x
Hauser, S., Teubler, F., Riemer, M., Knippertz, P., and Grams, C. M.: Tracks of negative upper-tropospheric PV anomalies (PVAs−) over the Northern Hemisphere in ERA5 reanalysis (1979–2021), published 11 April 2024, Repository KITopen [data set], https://doi.org/10.35097/nncxPGLAaaDgVKIW, 2024. a
Hermann, M., Papritz, L., and Wernli, H.: A Lagrangian analysis of the dynamical and thermodynamic drivers of large-scale Greenland melt events during 1979–2017, Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 497–518, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-497-2020, 2020. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020. a, b
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Biavati, G., Horányi, A., Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Dee, D., and Thépaut, J.-N.: ERA5 hourly data on pressure levels from 1940 to present, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.bd0915c6, 2023. a
Hochman, A., Messori, G., Quinting, J. F., Pinto, J. G., and Grams, C. M.: Do Atlantic-European Weather Regimes Physically Exist?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2021GL095574, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095574, 2021. a
Hoskins, B.: A potential vorticity view of synoptic development, Meteorol. Appl., 4, 325–334, https://doi.org/10.1017/S1350482797000716, 1997. a
Hoskins, B. J., McIntyre, M. E., and Robertson, A. W.: On the Use and Significance of Isentropic Potential Vorticity Maps, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 111, 877–946, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49711147002, 1985. a
Hwang, J., Martineau, P., Son, S.-W., Miyasaka, T., and Nakamura, H.: The Role of Transient Eddies in North Pacific Blocking Formation and Its Seasonality, J. Atmos. Sci., 77, 2453–2470, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-20-0011.1, 2020. a
Kautz, L.-A., Martius, O., Pfahl, S., Pinto, J. G., Ramos, A. M., Sousa, P. M., and Woollings, T.: Atmospheric blocking and weather extremes over the Euro-Atlantic sector – a review, Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 305–336, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-305-2022, 2022. a
Luo, D., Cha, J., and Feldstein, S. B.: Weather Regime Transitions and the Interannual Variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Part I: A Likely Connection, J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 2329–2346, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-11-0289.1, 2012. a
Luo, D., Zhang, W., Zhong, L., and Dai, A.: A Nonlinear Theory of Atmospheric Blocking: A Potential Vorticity Gradient View, J. Atmos. Sci., 76, 2399–2427, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-18-0324.1, 2019. a
Lupo, A. R.: Atmospheric blocking events: a review, Ann. NY Acad. Sci., 1504, 5–24, https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14557, 2021. a, b
Maddison, J. W., Gray, S. L., Martínez-Alvarado, O., and Williams, K. D.: Upstream Cyclone Influence on the Predictability of Block Onsets over the Euro-Atlantic Region, Mon. Weather Rev., 147, 1277–1296, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-18-0226.1, 2019. a
Madonna, E., Wernli, H., Joos, H., and Martius, O.: Warm Conveyor Belts in the ERA-Interim Dataset (1979–2010). Part I: Climatology and Potential Vorticity Evolution, J. Climate, 27, 3–26, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00720.1, 2014. a, b, c, d
Martineau, P., Nakamura, H., Yamamoto, A., and Kosaka, Y.: Baroclinic Blocking, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2022GL097791, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL097791, 2022. a, b
McLeod, J. T. and Mote, T. L.: Assessing the role of precursor cyclones on the formation of extreme Greenland blocking episodes and their impact on summer melting across the Greenland ice sheet, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 12357–12377, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023945, 2015. a
Michel, C., Madonna, E., Spensberger, C., Li, C., and Outten, S.: Dynamical drivers of Greenland blocking in climate models, Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1131–1148, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1131-2021, 2021. a, b
Michelangeli, P. A., Vautard, R., and Legras, B.: Weather regimes: recurrence and quasi stationarity, J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 1237–1256, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1995)052<1237:WRRAQS>2.0.CO;2, 1995. a
Mockert, F., Grams, C. M., Brown, T., and Neumann, F.: Meteorological conditions during periods of low wind speed and insolation in Germany: The role of weather regimes, Meteorol. Appl., 30, e2141, https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2141, 2023. a
Mullen, S. L.: Transient eddy forcing of blocking flows, J. Atmos. Sci., 44, 3–22, 1987. a
Nakamura, H. and Wallace, J. M.: Synoptic Behavior of Baroclinic Eddies during the Blocking Onset, Mon. Weather Rev., 121, 1892– 903, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1993)121<1892:SBOBED>2.0.CO;2, 1993. a
Nakamura, N. and Huang, C. S. Y.: Atmospheric blocking as a traffic jam in the jet stream, Science, 361, 42–47, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aat0721, 2018. a
Oertel, A., Pickl, M., Quinting, J. F., Hauser, S., Wandel, J., Magnusson, L., Balmaseda, M., Vitart, F., and Grams, C. M.: Everything Hits at Once: How Remote Rainfall Matters for the Prediction of the 2021 North American Heat Wave, Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2022GL100958, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100958, 2023. a
Osman, M., Beerli, R., Büeler, D., and Grams, C. M.: Multi-model assessment of sub-seasonal predictive skill for year-round Atlantic–European weather regimes, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 149, 2386–2408, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4512, 2023. a
Otero, N., Martius, O., Allen, S., Bloomfield, H., and Schaefli, B.: Characterizing renewable energy compound events across Europe using a logistic regression-based approach, Meteorol. Appl., 29, e2089, https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2089, 2022. a
Parker, T., Woollings, T., and Weisheimer, A.: Ensemble sensitivity analysis of Greenland blocking in medium-range forecasts, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 144, 2358–2379, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3391, 2018. a
Pettersen, C., Henderson, S. A., Mattingly, K. S., Bennartz, R., and Breeden, M. L.: The Critical Role of Euro-Atlantic Blocking in Promoting Snowfall in Central Greenland, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 127, e2021JD035776, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD035776, 2022. a
Pinheiro, M. C., Ullrich, P. A., and Grotjahn, R.: Atmospheric blocking and intercomparison of objective detection methods: Flow field characteristics, Clim. Dynam., 53, 4189–4216, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04782-5, 2019. a
Quinting, J.: EuLerian Identification of ascending AirStreams – ELIAS 2.0, Gitlab [data set], https://gitlab.kit.edu/julian.quinting/elias-2.0 (last access: 23 April 2024), 2022. a
Quinting, J. F. and Grams, C. M.: Toward a Systematic Evaluation of Warm Conveyor Belts in Numerical Weather Prediction and Climate Models. Part I: Predictor Selection and Logistic Regression Model, J. Atmos. Sci., 78, 1465–1485, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-20-0139.1, 2021. a, b
Quinting, J. F. and Grams, C. M.: EuLerian Identification of ascending AirStreams ELIAS 2.0) in numerical weather prediction and climate models – Part 1: Development of deep learning model, Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 715–730, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-715-2022, 2022. a
Quinting, J. F. and Vitart, F.: Representation of synoptic-scale Rossby wave packets and blocking in the S2S prediction project database, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 1070–1078, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081381, 2019. a
Quinting, J. F., Grams, C. M., Oertel, A., and Pickl, M.: EuLerian Identification of ascending AirStreams (ELIAS 2.0) in numerical weather prediction and climate models – Part 2: Model application to different datasets, Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 731–744, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-731-2022, 2022.
Rex, D. F.: Blocking Action in the Middle Troposphere and its Effect upon Regional Climate, Tellus, 2, 196–211, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1950.tb00331.x, 1950. a
Riemer, M., Jones, S. C., and Davis, C. A.: The impact of extratropical transition on the downstream flow: An idealized modelling study with a straight jet, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 134, 69–91, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.189, 2008. a
Rivière, G. and Drouard, M.: Dynamics of the northern annular mode at weekly time scales, J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 4569–4590, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0069.1, 2015. a
Röthlisberger, M., Martius, O., and Wernli, H.: Northern Hemisphere Rossby Wave Initiation Events on the Extratropical Jet – A Climatological Analysis, J. Climate, 31, 743–760, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0346.1, 2018. a
Rowley, N. A., Carleton, A. M., and Fegyveresi, J.: Relationships of West Greenland supraglacial melt-lakes with local climate and regional atmospheric circulation, Int. J. Climatol., 40, 1164–1177, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6262, 2020. a
Schneidereit, A., Peters, D. H. W., Grams, C. M., Quinting, J. F., Keller, J. H., Wolf, G., Teubler, F., Riemer, M., and Martius, O.: Enhanced Tropospheric Wave Forcing of Two Anticyclones in the Prephase of the January 2009 Major Stratospheric Sudden Warming Event, Mon. Weather Rev., 145, 1797–1815, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0242.1, 2017. a
Schwierz, C., Croci-Maspoli, M., and Davies, H. C.: Perspicacious indicators of atmospheric blocking, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L06125, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL019341, 2004. a, b, c
Schwierz, C. B.: Interactions of Greenland-scale orography and extra-tropical synoptic-scale flow, Dissertation, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, https://www.research-collection.ethz.ch/handle/20.500.11850/146196 (last access: 22 April 2024), 2001. a
Shutts, G. J.: The propagation of eddies in diffluent jetstreams: Eddy vorticity forcing of `blocking' flow fields, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 109, 737–761, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49710946204, 1983. a, b, c
Simonson, J. M., Birkel, S. D., Maasch, K. A., Mayewski, P. A., Lyon, B., and Carleton, A. M.: Association between recent U.S. northeast precipitation trends and Greenland blocking, Int. J. Climatol., 42, 5682–5693, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7555, 2022. a
Suitters, C. C., Martínez-Alvarado, O., Hodges, K. I., Schiemann, R. K. H., and Ackerley, D.: Transient anticyclonic eddies and their relationship to atmospheric block persistence, Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 683–700, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-683-2023, 2023. a, b
Tedesco, M. and Fettweis, X.: Unprecedented atmospheric conditions (1948–2019) drive the 2019 exceptional melting season over the Greenland ice sheet, The Cryosphere, 14, 1209–1223, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1209-2020, 2020. a
Teubler, F., Riemer, M., Polster, C., Grams, C. M., Hauser, S., and Wirth, V.: Similarity and variability of blocked weather-regime dynamics in the Atlantic–European region, Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 265–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-265-2023, 2023. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k, l, m, n, o, p, q, r, s, t, u, v, w
Vautard, R.: Multiple weather regimes over the North Atlantic: analysis of precursors and successors, Mon. Weather Rev., 118, 2056–2081, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1990)118<2056:MWROTN>2.0.CO;2, 1990. a, b, c, d
Wallace, J. M. and Gutzler, D. S.: Teleconnections in the Geopotential Height Field during the Northern Hemisphere Winter, Mon. Weather Rev., 109, 784–812, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1981)109<0784:TITGHF>2.0.CO;2, 1981. a
Wandel, J. L.: Representation of warm conveyor belts in sub-seasonal forecast models and the link to Atlantic-European weather regimes, Dissertation, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, https://publikationen.bibliothek.kit.edu/1000150711 (last access: 22 April 2024), 2022. a
Wernli, H.: A Lagrangian-based analysis of extratropical cyclones. II: A detailed case-study, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 123, 1677–1706, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712354211, 1997. a, b
Woollings, T., Hannachi, A., and Hoskins, B.: Variability of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 136, 856–868, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.625, 2010. a, b
Woollings, T., Barriopedro, D., Methven, J., Son, S. W., Martius, O., Harvey, B., Sillmann, J., Lupo, A. R., and Seneviratne, S.: Blocking and its Response to Climate Change, Curr. Clim. Change Rep., 4, 287–300, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-018-0108-z, 2018. a, b, c
Yamazaki, A. and Itoh, H.: Vortex-Vortex Interactions for the Maintenance of Blocking. Part I: The Selective Absorption Mechanism and a Case Study, J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 725–742, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-11-0295.1, 2013. a, b, c
Short summary
Blocking over Greenland has substantial impacts on the weather and climate in mid- and high latitudes. This study applies a quasi-Lagrangian thinking on the dynamics of Greenland blocking and reveals two pathways of anticyclonic anomalies linked to the block. Moist processes were found to play a dominant role in the formation and maintenance of blocking. This emphasizes the necessity of the correct representation of moist processes in weather and climate models to realistically depict blocking.
Blocking over Greenland has substantial impacts on the weather and climate in mid- and high...
