Articles | Volume 2, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1245-2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1245-2021
Research article
 | 
16 Dec 2021
Research article |  | 16 Dec 2021

Impact of Eurasian autumn snow on the winter North Atlantic Oscillation in seasonal forecasts of the 20th century

Martin Wegmann, Yvan Orsolini, Antje Weisheimer, Bart van den Hurk, and Gerrit Lohmann

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Cited articles

Athanasiadis, P. J., Bellucci, A., Scaife, A. A., Hermanson, L., Materia, S., Sanna, A., Borrelli, A., MacLachlan, C., and Gualdi, S.: A multisystem view of wintertime nao seasonal predictions, J. Climate, 30, 1461–1475, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0153.1, 2017. 
Baker, L. H., Shaffrey, L. C., Sutton, R. T., Weisheimer, A., and Scaife, A. A.: An intercomparison of skill and overconfidence/underconfidence of the wintertime north atlantic oscillation in multimodel seasonal forecasts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 7808–7817, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078838, 2018. 
Blunden, J. and Boyer, T.: State of the Climate in 2020, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 102, S1-S475, 2021. 
Centre for Environmental Data Analysis: Initialised seasonal forecast of the 20th Century, Centre for Environmental Data Analysis [data set], https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/6e1c3df49f644a0f812818080bed5e45, last access: 7 December 2020. 
Climatic Research Unit: North Atlantic Oscillation, Climatic Research Unit [data set], https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/nao/, last access: 7 December 2020. 
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Short summary
Northern Hemisphere winter weather is influenced by the strength of westerly winds 30 km above the surface, the so-called polar vortex. Eurasian autumn snow cover is thought to modulate the polar vortex. So far, however, the modeled influence of snow on the polar vortex did not fit the observed influence. By analyzing a model experiment for the time span of 110 years, we could show that the causality of this impact is indeed sound and snow cover can weaken the polar vortex.