Articles | Volume 4, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-81-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-81-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
16 Jan 2023
Research article |
| 16 Jan 2023
| 16 Jan 2023
Increased vertical resolution in the stratosphere reveals role of gravity waves after sudden stratospheric warmings
Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, Université de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
Inna Polichtchouk
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK
Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, Université de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Related authors
Wolfgang Wicker, Emmanuele Russo, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1197, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1197, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Heatwaves are becoming more frequent, but the contribution by atmospheric circulation changes is unclear. Experiments with an idealized model that simulates atmospheric dynamics, but excludes clouds, radiation, and moisture, show how a poleward storm track shift increases the eastward phase speed of Rossby waves and reduces mid-latitude heatwave frequency. New evidence suggests that this mechanism is already active in the Southern Hemisphere and may soon emerge in the Northern Hemisphere.
Maria Pyrina, Wolfgang Wicker, Andries Jan de Vries, Georgios Fragkoulidis, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3088, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3088, 2024
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the atmospheric dynamics behind heatwaves, specifically of those occurring simultaneously across regions, known as concurrent heatwaves. We find that heatwaves are strongly modulated by Rossby wave packets, being Rossby waves whose amplitude has a local maximum and decays at larger distances. High amplitude Rossby wave packets increase the occurrence probabilities of concurrent and non-concurrent heatwaves by a factor of 15 and 18, respectively, over several regions globally.
Annie Y.-Y. Chang, Shaun Harrigan, Maria-Helena Ramos, Massimiliano Zappa, Christian M. Grams, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and Konrad Bogner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3411, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3411, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a machine learning-aided hybrid forecasting framework to improve early warnings of low flows in the European Alps. It combines weather regime information, streamflow observations, and model simulations (EFAS). Even using only weather regime data improves predictions over climatology, while integrating different data sources yields the best result, emphasizing the value of integrating diverse data sources.
Blanca Ayarzagüena, Amy H. Butler, Peter Hitchcock, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Zac D. Lawrence, Wuhan Ning, Philip Rupp, Zheng Wu, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Natalia Calvo, Álvaro de la Cámara, Martin Jucker, Gerbrand Koren, Daniel De Maeseneire, Gloria L. Manney, Marisol Osman, Masakazu Taguchi, Cory Barton, Dong-Chang Hong, Yu-Kyung Hyun, Hera Kim, Jeff Knight, Piero Malguzzi, Daniele Mastrangelo, Jiyoung Oh, Inna Polichtchouk, Jadwiga H. Richter, Isla R. Simpson, Seok-Woo Son, Damien Specq, and Tim Stockdale
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3611, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3611, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
Short summary
Short summary
Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) are known to follow a sustained wave dissipation in the stratosphere, which depends on both the tropospheric and stratospheric states. However, the relative role of each state is still unclear. Using a new set of subseasonal to seasonal forecasts, we show that the stratospheric state does not drastically affect the precursors of three recent SSWs, but modulates the stratospheric wave activity, with impacts depending on SSW features.
Lou Brett, Christopher J. White, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Bart van den Hurk, Philip Ward, and Jakob Zscheischler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2591–2611, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2591-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2591-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Compound events, where multiple weather or climate hazards occur together, pose significant risks to both society and the environment. These events, like simultaneous wind and rain, can have more severe impacts than single hazards. Our review of compound event research from 2012–2022 reveals a rise in studies, especially on events that occur concurrently, hot and dry events, and compounding flooding. The review also highlights opportunities for research in the coming years.
Bastien François, Khalil Teber, Lou Brett, Richard Leeding, Luis Gimeno-Sotelo, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, and Emanuele Bevacqua
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1029–1051, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1029-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1029-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Spatially compounding wind and precipitation (CWP) extremes can lead to severe impacts on society. We find that concurrent climate variability modes favor the occurrence of such wintertime spatially compounding events in the Northern Hemisphere and can even amplify the number of regions and population exposed. Our analysis highlights the importance of considering the interplay between variability modes to improve risk management of such spatially compounding events.
Monika Feldmann, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and Olivia Martius
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2296, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2296, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Severe thunderstorm outbreaks are a source of major damage across Europe. Using historical data, we analysed the large-scale weather patterns that lead to these outbreaks in eight different regions. Three types of regions emerge: those limited by temperature, limited by moisture and overall favourable for thunderstorms; consistent with their associated weather patterns and the general climate. These findings help explain regional differences and provide a basis for future forecast improvements.
Wolfgang Wicker, Emmanuele Russo, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1197, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1197, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Heatwaves are becoming more frequent, but the contribution by atmospheric circulation changes is unclear. Experiments with an idealized model that simulates atmospheric dynamics, but excludes clouds, radiation, and moisture, show how a poleward storm track shift increases the eastward phase speed of Rossby waves and reduces mid-latitude heatwave frequency. New evidence suggests that this mechanism is already active in the Southern Hemisphere and may soon emerge in the Northern Hemisphere.
Chaim I. Garfinkel, Zachary D. Lawrence, Amy H. Butler, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Irene Erner, Alexey Y. Karpechko, Gerbrand Koren, Marta Abalos, Blanca Ayarzagüena, David Barriopedro, Natalia Calvo, Alvaro de la Cámara, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Judah Cohen, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Javier García-Serrano, Neil P. Hindley, Martin Jucker, Hera Kim, Robert W. Lee, Simon H. Lee, Marisol Osman, Froila M. Palmeiro, Inna Polichtchouk, Jian Rao, Jadwiga H. Richter, Chen Schwartz, Seok-Woo Son, Masakazu Taguchi, Nicholas L. Tyrrell, Corwin J. Wright, and Rachel W.-Y. Wu
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 171–195, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-171-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-171-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Variability in the extratropical stratosphere and troposphere is coupled, and because of the longer timescales characteristic of the stratosphere, this allows for a window of opportunity for surface prediction. This paper assesses whether models used for operational prediction capture these coupling processes accurately. We find that most processes are too weak; however downward coupling from the lower stratosphere to the near surface is too strong.
Thomas Rackow, Xabier Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia, Tobias Becker, Sebastian Milinski, Irina Sandu, Razvan Aguridan, Peter Bechtold, Sebastian Beyer, Jean Bidlot, Souhail Boussetta, Willem Deconinck, Michail Diamantakis, Peter Dueben, Emanuel Dutra, Richard Forbes, Rohit Ghosh, Helge F. Goessling, Ioan Hadade, Jan Hegewald, Thomas Jung, Sarah Keeley, Lukas Kluft, Nikolay Koldunov, Aleksei Koldunov, Tobias Kölling, Josh Kousal, Christian Kühnlein, Pedro Maciel, Kristian Mogensen, Tiago Quintino, Inna Polichtchouk, Balthasar Reuter, Domokos Sármány, Patrick Scholz, Dmitry Sidorenko, Jan Streffing, Birgit Sützl, Daisuke Takasuka, Steffen Tietsche, Mirco Valentini, Benoît Vannière, Nils Wedi, Lorenzo Zampieri, and Florian Ziemen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 33–69, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-33-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-33-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Detailed global climate model simulations have been created based on a numerical weather prediction model, offering more accurate spatial detail down to the scale of individual cities ("kilometre-scale") and a better understanding of climate phenomena such as atmospheric storms, whirls in the ocean, and cracks in sea ice. The new model aims to provide globally consistent information on local climate change with greater precision, benefiting environmental planning and local impact modelling.
Pauline Rivoire, Sonia Dupuis, Antoine Guisan, Pascal Vittoz, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3482, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3482, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study investigates the conditions in temperature, precipitation, humidity, and soil moisture leading to the browning of the European forests in summer. Using a Random Forest model and satellite measurement of vegetation greenness, we identify key conditions that predict forest damage. We conclude that hot and dry conditions in spring and summer are adverse conditions, in particular for broad-leaved trees. The hydro-meteorological conditions during the preceding year can also have an impact.
Rachel W.-Y. Wu, Gabriel Chiodo, Inna Polichtchouk, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12259–12275, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12259-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12259-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Strong variations in the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex can profoundly affect surface weather extremes; therefore, accurately predicting the stratosphere can improve surface weather forecasts. The research reveals how uncertainty in the stratosphere is linked to the troposphere. The findings suggest that refining models to better represent the identified sources and impact regions in the troposphere is likely to improve the prediction of the stratosphere and its surface impacts.
Sebastian Rhode, Peter Preusse, Jörn Ungermann, Inna Polichtchouk, Kaoru Sato, Shingo Watanabe, Manfred Ern, Karlheinz Nogai, Björn-Martin Sinnhuber, and Martin Riese
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 5785–5819, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-5785-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-5785-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the capabilities of a proposed satellite mission, CAIRT, for observing gravity waves throughout the middle atmosphere and present the necessary methodology for in-depth wave analysis. Our findings suggest that such a satellite mission is highly capable of resolving individual wave parameters and could give new insights into the role of gravity waves in general atmospheric circulation and atmospheric processes.
Michael Schutte, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and Jacopo Riboldi
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 733–752, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-733-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-733-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The winter circulation in the stratosphere, a layer of the Earth’s atmosphere between 10 and 50 km height, is tightly linked to the circulation in the lower atmosphere determining our daily weather. This interconnection happens in the form of waves propagating in and between these two layers. Here, we use space–time spectral analysis to show that disruptions and enhancements of the stratospheric circulation modify the shape and propagation of waves in both layers.
Luca G. Severino, Chahan M. Kropf, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Christopher Fairless, Andries Jan de Vries, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1555–1578, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We combine climate projections from 30 climate models with a climate risk model to project winter windstorm damages in Europe under climate change. We study the uncertainty and sensitivity factors related to the modelling of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. We emphasize high uncertainties in the damage projections, with climate models primarily driving the uncertainty. We find climate change reshapes future European windstorm risk by altering damage locations and intensity.
Romain Pilon and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2247–2264, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2247-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2247-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces a new method for detecting atmospheric cloud bands to identify long convective cloud bands that extend from the tropics to the midlatitudes. The algorithm allows for easy use and enables researchers to study the life cycle and climatology of cloud bands and associated rainfall. This method provides insights into the large-scale processes involved in cloud band formation and their connections between different regions, as well as differences across ocean basins.
Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Dominik Büeler, C. Ole Wulff, Michael Sprenger, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 231–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-231-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-231-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The stratosphere is a layer of Earth's atmosphere found above the weather systems. Changes in the stratosphere can affect the winds and the storm tracks in the North Atlantic region for a relatively long time, lasting for several weeks and even months. We show that the stratosphere can be important for weather forecasts beyond 1 week, but more work is needed to improve the accuracy of these forecasts for 3–4 weeks.
Maria Pyrina, Wolfgang Wicker, Andries Jan de Vries, Georgios Fragkoulidis, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3088, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3088, 2024
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the atmospheric dynamics behind heatwaves, specifically of those occurring simultaneously across regions, known as concurrent heatwaves. We find that heatwaves are strongly modulated by Rossby wave packets, being Rossby waves whose amplitude has a local maximum and decays at larger distances. High amplitude Rossby wave packets increase the occurrence probabilities of concurrent and non-concurrent heatwaves by a factor of 15 and 18, respectively, over several regions globally.
David Martin Straus, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Sarah-Jane Lock, Franco Molteni, and Priyanka Yadav
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 1001–1018, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1001-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1001-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The global response to the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is potentially predictable. Yet the diabatic heating is uncertain even within a particular episode of the MJO. Experiments with a global model probe the limitations imposed by this uncertainty. The large-scale tropical heating is predictable for 25 to 45 d, yet the associated Rossby wave source that links the heating to the midlatitude circulation is predictable for 15 to 20 d. This limitation has not been recognized in prior work.
Gabriel Chiodo, Marina Friedel, Svenja Seeber, Daniela Domeisen, Andrea Stenke, Timofei Sukhodolov, and Franziska Zilker
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10451–10472, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10451-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10451-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric ozone protects the biosphere from harmful UV radiation. Anthropogenic activity has led to a reduction in the ozone layer in the recent past, but thanks to the implementation of the Montreal Protocol, the ozone layer is projected to recover. In this study, we show that projected future changes in Arctic ozone abundances during springtime will influence stratospheric climate and thereby actively modulate large-scale circulation changes in the Northern Hemisphere.
Jake W. Casselman, Joke F. Lübbecke, Tobias Bayr, Wenjuan Huo, Sebastian Wahl, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 471–487, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-471-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-471-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has remote effects on the tropical North Atlantic (TNA), but the connections' nonlinearity (strength of response to an increasing ENSO signal) is not always well represented in models. Using the Community Earth System Model version 1 – Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Mode (CESM-WACCM) and the Flexible Ocean and Climate Infrastructure version 1, we find that the TNA responds linearly to extreme El Niño but nonlinearly to extreme La Niña for CESM-WACCM.
Raphaël de Fondeville, Zheng Wu, Enikő Székely, Guillaume Obozinski, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 287–307, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-287-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-287-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a fully data-driven, interpretable, and computationally scalable framework to characterize sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), extract statistically significant precursors, and produce machine learning (ML) forecasts. By successfully leveraging the long-lasting impact of SSWs, the ML predictions outperform sub-seasonal numerical forecasts for lead times beyond 25 d. Post-processing numerical predictions using their ML counterparts yields a performance increase of up to 20 %.
Marina Friedel, Gabriel Chiodo, Andrea Stenke, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13997–14017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13997-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13997-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In spring, winds the Arctic stratosphere change direction – an event called final stratospheric warming (FSW). Here, we examine whether the interannual variability in Arctic stratospheric ozone impacts the timing of the FSW. We find that Arctic ozone shifts the FSW to earlier and later dates in years with high and low ozone via the absorption of UV light. The modulation of the FSW by ozone has consequences for surface climate in ozone-rich years, which may result in better seasonal predictions.
Nora Bergner, Marina Friedel, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Darryn Waugh, and Gabriel Chiodo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13915–13934, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13915-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13915-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Polar vortex extremes, particularly situations with an unusually weak cyclonic circulation in the stratosphere, can influence the surface climate in the spring–summer time in the Southern Hemisphere. Using chemistry-climate models and observations, we evaluate the robustness of the surface impacts. While models capture the general surface response, they do not show the observed climate patterns in midlatitude regions, which we trace back to biases in the models' circulations.
Jake W. Casselman, Bernat Jiménez-Esteve, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1077–1096, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1077-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1077-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Using an atmospheric general circulation model, we analyze how the tropical North Atlantic influences the El Niño–Southern Oscillation connection towards the North Atlantic European region. We also focus on the lesser-known boreal spring and summer response following an El Niño–Southern Oscillation event. Our results show that altered tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures may cause different responses over the Caribbean region, consequently influencing the North Atlantic European region.
Zachary D. Lawrence, Marta Abalos, Blanca Ayarzagüena, David Barriopedro, Amy H. Butler, Natalia Calvo, Alvaro de la Cámara, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Javier García-Serrano, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Neil P. Hindley, Liwei Jia, Martin Jucker, Alexey Y. Karpechko, Hera Kim, Andrea L. Lang, Simon H. Lee, Pu Lin, Marisol Osman, Froila M. Palmeiro, Judith Perlwitz, Inna Polichtchouk, Jadwiga H. Richter, Chen Schwartz, Seok-Woo Son, Irene Erner, Masakazu Taguchi, Nicholas L. Tyrrell, Corwin J. Wright, and Rachel W.-Y. Wu
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 977–1001, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-977-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-977-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Forecast models that are used to predict weather often struggle to represent the Earth’s stratosphere. This may impact their ability to predict surface weather weeks in advance, on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales. We use data from many S2S forecast systems to characterize and compare the stratospheric biases present in such forecast models. These models have many similar stratospheric biases, but they tend to be worse in systems with low model tops located within the stratosphere.
Rachel Wai-Ying Wu, Zheng Wu, and Daniela I.V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 755–776, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-755-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-755-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate predictions of the stratospheric polar vortex can enhance surface weather predictability. Stratospheric events themselves are less predictable, with strong inter-event differences. We assess the predictability of stratospheric acceleration and deceleration events in a sub-seasonal prediction system, finding that the predictability of events is largely dependent on event magnitude, while extreme drivers of deceleration events are not fully represented in the model.
Peter Hitchcock, Amy Butler, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Tim Stockdale, James Anstey, Dann Mitchell, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Tongwen Wu, Yixiong Lu, Daniele Mastrangelo, Piero Malguzzi, Hai Lin, Ryan Muncaster, Bill Merryfield, Michael Sigmond, Baoqiang Xiang, Liwei Jia, Yu-Kyung Hyun, Jiyoung Oh, Damien Specq, Isla R. Simpson, Jadwiga H. Richter, Cory Barton, Jeff Knight, Eun-Pa Lim, and Harry Hendon
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5073–5092, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes an experimental protocol focused on sudden stratospheric warmings to be carried out by subseasonal forecast modeling centers. These will allow for inter-model comparisons of these major disruptions to the stratospheric polar vortex and their impacts on the near-surface flow. The protocol will lead to new insights into the contribution of the stratosphere to subseasonal forecast skill and new approaches to the dynamical attribution of extreme events.
Chen Schwartz, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Priyanka Yadav, Wen Chen, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 679–692, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-679-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-679-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Eleven operational forecast models that run on subseasonal timescales (up to 2 months) are examined to assess errors in their simulated large-scale stationary waves in the Northern Hemisphere winter. We found that models with a more finely resolved stratosphere generally do better in simulating the waves in both the stratosphere (10–50 km) and troposphere below. Moreover, a connection exists between errors in simulated time-mean convection in tropical regions and errors in the simulated waves.
Beatriz M. Monge-Sanz, Alessio Bozzo, Nicholas Byrne, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Michail Diamantakis, Johannes Flemming, Lesley J. Gray, Robin J. Hogan, Luke Jones, Linus Magnusson, Inna Polichtchouk, Theodore G. Shepherd, Nils Wedi, and Antje Weisheimer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4277–4302, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4277-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4277-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The stratosphere is emerging as one of the keys to improve tropospheric weather and climate predictions. This study provides evidence of the role the stratospheric ozone layer plays in improving weather predictions at different timescales. Using a new ozone modelling approach suitable for high-resolution global models that provide operational forecasts from days to seasons, we find significant improvements in stratospheric meteorological fields and stratosphere–troposphere coupling.
Adam A. Scaife, Mark P. Baldwin, Amy H. Butler, Andrew J. Charlton-Perez, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Steven C. Hardiman, Peter Haynes, Alexey Yu Karpechko, Eun-Pa Lim, Shunsuke Noguchi, Judith Perlwitz, Lorenzo Polvani, Jadwiga H. Richter, John Scinocca, Michael Sigmond, Theodore G. Shepherd, Seok-Woo Son, and David W. J. Thompson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2601–2623, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Great progress has been made in computer modelling and simulation of the whole climate system, including the stratosphere. Since the late 20th century we also gained a much clearer understanding of how the stratosphere interacts with the lower atmosphere. The latest generation of numerical prediction systems now explicitly represents the stratosphere and its interaction with surface climate, and here we review its role in long-range predictions and projections from weeks to decades ahead.
Zheng Wu, Bernat Jiménez-Esteve, Raphaël de Fondeville, Enikő Székely, Guillaume Obozinski, William T. Ball, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 841–865, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-841-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-841-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use an advanced statistical approach to investigate the dynamics of the development of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events in the winter Northern Hemisphere. We identify distinct signals that are representative of these events and their event type at lead times beyond currently predictable lead times. The results can be viewed as a promising step towards improving the predictability of SSWs in the future by using more advanced statistical methods in operational forecasting systems.
Amy H. Butler and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 453–474, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-453-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-453-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We classify by wave geometry the stratospheric polar vortex during the final warming that occurs every spring in both hemispheres due to a combination of radiative and dynamical processes. We show that the shape of the vortex, as well as the timing of the seasonal transition, is linked to total column ozone prior to and surface weather following the final warming. These results have implications for prediction and our understanding of stratosphere–troposphere coupling processes in springtime.
Graeme Marlton, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Giles Harrison, Inna Polichtchouk, Alain Hauchecorne, Philippe Keckhut, Robin Wing, Thierry Leblanc, and Wolfgang Steinbrecht
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6079–6092, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6079-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6079-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A network of Rayleigh lidars have been used to infer the upper-stratosphere temperature bias in ECMWF ERA-5 and ERA-Interim reanalyses during 1990–2017. Results show that ERA-Interim exhibits a cold bias of −3 to −4 K between 10 and 1 hPa. Comparisons with ERA-5 found a smaller bias of 1 K which varies between cold and warm between 10 and 3 hPa, indicating a good thermal representation of the atmosphere to 3 hPa. These biases must be accounted for in stratospheric studies using these reanalyses.
Wolfgang Woiwode, Andreas Dörnbrack, Inna Polichtchouk, Sören Johansson, Ben Harvey, Michael Höpfner, Jörn Ungermann, and Felix Friedl-Vallon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 15379–15387, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15379-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15379-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The lowermost-stratosphere moist bias in ECMWF analyses and 12 h forecasts is diagnosed for the Arctic winter-spring 2016 period by using two-dimensional GLORIA water vapor observations. The bias is already present in the initial conditions (i.e., the analyses), and sensitivity forecasts on time scales of < 12 h show hardly any sensitivity to modified spatial resolution and output frequency.
Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Iuliia Polkova, Lukas Papritz, Paolo Ruggieri, Martin P. King, Panos J. Athanasiadis, Johanna Baehr, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 541–553, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-541-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-541-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the stratospheric influence on marine cold air outbreaks (MCAOs) in the North Atlantic using ERA-Interim reanalysis data. MCAOs are associated with severe Arctic weather, such as polar lows and strong surface winds. Sudden stratospheric events are found to be associated with more frequent MCAOs in the Barents and the Norwegian seas, affected by the anomalous circulation over Greenland and Scandinavia. Identification of MCAO precursors is crucial for improved long-range prediction.
Cited articles
Albers, J. R. and Birner, T.: Vortex preconditioning due to planetary and gravity waves prior to sudden stratospheric warmings, J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 4028–4054, 2014. a
Baldwin, M. P. and Dunkerton, T. J.: Stratospheric harbingers of anomalous weather regimes, Science, 294, 581–584, 2001. a
Baldwin, M. P., Ayarzagüena, B., Birner, T., Butchart, N., Butler, A. H., Charlton-Perez, A. J., Domeisen, D. I., Garfinkel, C. I., Garny, H., Gerber, E. P., Hegglin, M. I., Langematz, U., and Pedatella, N. M.: Sudden stratospheric warmings, Rev. Geophys., 59, e2020RG000708, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000708, 2021. a
Charney, J. and Drazin, P.: Propagation of planetary-scale disturbances from the lower into the upper atmosphere, J. Geophys. Res, 66, 83–109, 1961. a
Domeisen, D. I., Martius, O., and Jiménez-Esteve, B.: Rossby wave propagation into the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere: The role of zonal phase speed, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 2064–2071, 2018. a
Domeisen, D. I., Butler, A. H., Charlton-Perez, A. J., Ayarzagüena, B., Baldwin, M. P., Dunn-Sigouin, E., Furtado, J. C., Garfinkel, C. I., Hitchcock, P., Karpechko, A. Y., Kim, H., Knight, J., Lang, A. L., Lim, E.-P., Marshall, A., Roff, G., Schwartz, C., Simpson, I. R., Son, S.-W., and Taguchi, M.: The Role of the Stratosphere in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: 1. Predictability of the Stratosphere, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 125, e2019JD030920, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030920, 2020a. a
Domeisen, D. I., Butler, A. H., Charlton-Perez, A. J., Ayarzagüena, B., Baldwin, M. P., Dunn-Sigouin, E., Furtado, J. C., Garfinkel, C. I., Hitchcock, P., Karpechko, A. Y., Kim, H., Knight, J., Lang, A. L., Lim, E.-P., Marshall, A., Roff, G., Schwartz, C., Simpson, I. R., Son, S.-W., and Taguchi, M.: The Role of the Stratosphere in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: 2. Predictability arising from Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 125, e2019JD030923, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030923, 2020b. a, b, c
Dörnbrack, A., Gisinger, S., Kaifler, N., Portele, T. C., Bramberger, M., Rapp, M., Gerding, M., Söder, J., Žagar, N., and Jelić, D.: Gravity waves excited during a minor sudden stratospheric warming, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 12915–12931, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-12915-2018, 2018. a
Duck, T. J., Whiteway, J. A., and Carswell, A. I.: Lidar observations of gravity wave activity and Arctic stratospheric vortex core warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 2813–2816, 1998. a
ECMWF: ECMWF Confluence Wiki, https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/S2S/Models, last access: 9 May 2022a. a
ECMWF: S2S archive, https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/S2S/S2S+archive, last access: 9 November 2022b. a
Ern, M., Preusse, P., Alexander, M. J., and Warner, C. D.: Absolute values of gravity wave momentum flux derived from satellite data, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 109, D20103, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD004752, 2004. a
Fritts, D. C. and Alexander, M. J.: Gravity wave dynamics and effects in the middle atmosphere, Rev. Geophys., 41, 1003, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001RG000106, 2003. a, b, c, d
Gupta, A., Birner, T., Dörnbrack, A., and Polichtchouk, I.: Importance of gravity wave forcing for springtime southern polar vortex breakdown as revealed by ERA5, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2021GL092762, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL092762, 2021. a
Haynes, P., McIntyre, M., Shepherd, T., Marks, C., and Shine, K. P.: On the “downward control” of extratropical diabatic circulations by eddy-induced mean zonal forces, J. Atmos. Sci., 48, 651–678, 1991. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Biavati, G., Horányi, A., Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Dee, D., and Thépaut, J-N.: ERA5 hourly data on pressure levels from 1959 to present, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS), https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.bd0915c6, 2018. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyeaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, 2020. a
Hindley, N., Wright, C., Hoffmann, L., Moffat-Griffin, T., and Mitchell, N.: An 18 year climatology of directional stratospheric gravity wave momentum flux from 3-D satellite observations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089557, e2020GL089557, 2020. a
Hitchcock, P. and Shepherd, T. G.: Zonal-mean dynamics of extended recoveries from stratospheric sudden warmings, J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 688–707, 2013. a
Hitchcock, P., Shepherd, T. G., Taguchi, M., Yoden, S., and Noguchi, S.: Lower-stratospheric radiative damping and polar-night jet oscillation events, J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 1391–1408, 2013. a
Hitchcock, P., Butler, A., Charlton-Perez, A., Garfinkel, C. I., Stockdale, T., Anstey, J., Mitchell, D., Domeisen, D. I. V., Wu, T., Lu, Y., Mastrangelo, D., Malguzzi, P., Lin, H., Muncaster, R., Merryfield, B., Sigmond, M., Xiang, B., Jia, L., Hyun, Y.-K., Oh, J., Specq, D., Simpson, I. R., Richter, J. H., Barton, C., Knight, J., Lim, E.-P., and Hendon, H.:
Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts, Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5073–5092, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022, 2022. a
Holton, J. R.: The influence of gravity wave breaking on the general circulation of the middle atmosphere, J. Atmos. Sci., 40, 2497–2507, 1983. a
Kautz, L.-A., Polichtchouk, I., Birner, T., Garny, H., and Pinto, J. G.: Enhanced extended-range predictability of the 2018 late-winter Eurasian cold spell due to the stratosphere, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1040–1055, 2020. a
Kodera, K., Mukougawa, H., Maury, P., Ueda, M., and Claud, C.: Absorbing and reflecting sudden stratospheric warming events and their relationship with tropospheric circulation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 80–94, 2016. a
Kuchar, A., Sacha, P., Eichinger, R., Jacobi, C., Pisoft, P., and Rieder, H.: On the impact of Himalaya-induced gravity waves on the polar vortex, Rossby wave activity and ozone, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-474, 2022. a
Lawrence, Z. D., Abalos, M., Ayarzagüena, B., Barriopedro, D., Butler, A. H., Calvo, N., de la Cámara, A., Charlton-Perez, A., Domeisen, D. I. V., Dunn-Sigouin, E., García-Serrano, J., Garfinkel, C. I., Hindley, N. P., Jia, L., Jucker, M., Karpechko, A. Y., Kim, H., Lang, A. L., Lee, S. H., Lin, P., Osman, M., Palmeiro, F. M., Perlwitz, J., Polichtchouk, I., Richter, J. H., Schwartz, C., Son, S.-W., Statnaia, I., Taguchi, M., Tyrrell, N. L., Wright, C. J., and Wu, R. W.-Y.:
Quantifying stratospheric biases and identifying their potential sources in subseasonal forecast systems, Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 977–1001, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-977-2022, 2022. a, b, c, d
Limpasuvan, V., Thompson, D. W., and Hartmann, D. L.: The life cycle of the Northern Hemisphere sudden stratospheric warmings, J. Climate, 17, 2584–2596, 2004. a
Matsuno, T.: A dynamical model of the stratospheric sudden warming, J. Atmos. Sci., 28, 1479–1494, 1971. a
Polichtchouk, I. and Scott, R. K.: Spontaneous inertia-gravity wave emission from a nonlinear critical layer in the stratosphere, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1516–1528, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3750, 2020. a
Polichtchouk, I., van Niekerk, A., and Wedi, N.: Resolved gravity waves in the extra-tropical stratosphere: Effect of horizontal resolution increase from O (10 km) to O (1 km), J. Atmos. Sci., 1, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-22-0138.1, 2022a. a
Preusse, P., Dörnbrack, A., Eckermann, S. D., Riese, M., Schaeler, B., Bacmeister, J. T., Broutman, D., and Grossmann, K. U.: Space-based measurements of stratospheric mountain waves by CRISTA 1. Sensitivity, analysis method, and a case study, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 107, CRI 6-1–CRI 6-23, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JD000699, 2002. a
Roeckner, E., Brokopf, R., Esch, M., Giorgetta, M., Hagemann, S., Kornblueh, L., Manzini, E., Schlese, U., and Schulzweida, U.: Sensitivity of simulated climate to horizontal and vertical resolution in the ECHAM5 atmosphere model, J. Climate, 19, 3771–3791, 2006. a
Sato, K.: A statistical study of the structure, saturation and sources of inertio-gravity waves in the lower stratosphere observed with the MU radar, J. Atmos. Terr. Phys., 56, 755–774, 1994. a
Song, B.-G., Chun, H.-Y., and Song, I.-S.: Role of gravity waves in a vortex-split sudden stratospheric warming in January 2009, J. Atmos. Sci., 77, 3321–3342, 2020. a
Torrence, C. and Compo, G. P.: A practical guide to wavelet analysis, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 79, 61–78, 1998. a
Tripathi, O. P., Baldwin, M., Charlton-Perez, A., Charron, M., Eckermann, S. D., Gerber, E., Harrison, R. G., Jackson, D. R., Kim, B.-M., Kuroda, Y., Lang, A., Mahmood, S., Mizuta, R., Roff, G., Sigmond, M., Son, S.-W.: The predictability of the extratropical stratosphere on monthly time-scales and its impact on the skill of tropospheric forecasts, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 987–1003, 2015a. a
Tripathi, O. P., Charlton-Perez, A., Sigmond, M., and Vitart, F.: Enhanced long-range forecast skill in boreal winter following stratospheric strong vortex conditions, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 104007, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/104007, 2015b. a
Venkat Ratnam, M., Tsuda, T., Jacobi, C., and Aoyama, Y.: Enhancement of gravity wave activity observed during a major Southern Hemisphere stratospheric warming by CHAMP/GPS measurements, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L16101, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL019789, 2004. a
Vitart, F., Ardilouze, C., Bonet, A., Brookshaw, A., Chen, M., Codorean, C., Déqué, M., Ferranti, L., Fucile, E., Fuentes, M., Hendon, H., Hodgson, J., Kang, H.-S., Kumar, A., Lin, H., Liu, G., Liu, X., Malguzzi, P., Mallas, I., Manoussakis, M., Mastrangelo, D., MacLachlan, C., McLean, P., Minami, A., Mladek, R., Nakazawa, T., Najm, S., Nie, Y., Rixen, M., Robertson, A. W., Ruti, P., Sun, C., Takaya, Y., Tolstykh, M., Venuti, F., Waliser, D., Woolnough, S., Wu, T., Won, D.-J., Xiao, H., Zaripov, R., and Zhang, L.: The subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction project database, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 98, 163–173, 2017. a
Wang, L. and Alexander, M. J.: Gravity wave activity during stratospheric sudden warmings in the 2007–2008 Northern Hemisphere winter, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 114, D18108, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD011867, 2009. a, b, c
Wicker, W.: wwicker/IFS_GW_SSW: Original release (v1.0.0), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7529461, 2023. a
Wu, R. W.-Y., Wu, Z., and Domeisen, D. I. V.: Differences in the sub-seasonal predictability of extreme stratospheric events, Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 755–776, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-755-2022, 2022. a
Short summary
Sudden stratospheric warmings are extreme weather events where the winter polar stratosphere warms by about 25 K. An improved representation of small-scale gravity waves in sub-seasonal prediction models can reduce forecast errors since their impact on the large-scale circulation is predictable multiple weeks ahead. After a sudden stratospheric warming, vertically propagating gravity waves break at a lower altitude than usual, which strengthens the long-lasting positive temperature anomalies.
Sudden stratospheric warmings are extreme weather events where the winter polar stratosphere...
