Articles | Volume 5, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-881-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-881-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
02 Jul 2024
Research article |
| 02 Jul 2024
| 02 Jul 2024
Deepening mechanisms of cut-off lows in the Southern Hemisphere and the role of jet streams: insights from eddy kinetic energy analysis
Henri Rossi Pinheiro
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of São Paulo, 05508-090, São Paulo, Brazil
Kevin Ivan Hodges
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, RG6 6UR, Reading, United Kingdom
Manoel Alonso Gan
Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies (CPTEC), National Institute for Space Research (INPE), 12227-010, São José dos Campos, Brazil
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Reinhard K. H. Schiemann, Grenville Lister, Rosalyn Hatcher, Dan Hodson, Bryan Lawrence, Len Shaffrey, Jeff Cole, Andrea Dittus, Jenny Mecking, Jon Robson, Simon Wilson, Yevgeny Aksenov, Adam T. Blaker, Ben Harvey, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Annette Osprey, Stephanie Rynders, Sharar Ahmadi, Jake Aylmer, Laura Baker, David Case, Emanuele Silvio Gentile, Steve George, Kevin Hodges, Eliza Karlowska, Charlotte Lang, Hua Lu, Niamh O'Callaghan, Weronika Osmolska, Scott Osprey, Tony Phillips, David Schröder, Robin Smith, Andrew G. Turner, Steve Woolnough, Martin Andrews, Andrew Coward, Steven Hardiman, James Harle, John W. Rostron, David M. H. Sexton, Bablu Sinha, Jonny Williams, and Chris Wilson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2281, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2281, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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This paper presents a new large ensemble of climate model simulations: The CANARI HadGEM3 Large Ensemble (CANARI LE). The CANARI LE has a comparatively high resolution, provides sub-daily output on atmospheric pressure levels, and boundary conditions for driving regional model simulations. The CANARI LE is thus a community resource that lends itself for the study of physical coupled climate processes, weather systems, and impacts in a changing climate.
Rafaela Jane Delfino, Gerry Bagtasa, Pier Luigi Vidale, and Kevin Hodges
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3579–3595, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3579-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3579-2026, 2026
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High-resolution simulations reveal that future warming amplifies tropical cyclone extreme rainfall in the Philippines, with inner-core increases exceeding 30–40 %, indicating a shift toward higher-intensity rainfall events. This response is primarily driven by thermodynamic moisture increases, while dynamical changes generally offset part of the increase. Tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall scaling is therefore largely moisture-driven, with TC-specific dynamics modulating the magnitude of rainfall enhancement.
Stella Bourdin, Kevin Hodges, Yushan Han, Leo Saffin, Alexander Baker, John Methven, and Pier Luigi Vidale
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-403, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-403, 2026
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This paper describes a new dataset for the study of historical tropical cyclones. RABTracks is a global dataset that combines official tropical cyclone records with multiple weather reanalyses and tracking methods from 1940 to today. It extends cyclone tracks before formation and after dissipation, adding information on intensity, size, structure, and transition to extratropical storms. The dataset is designed to support improved cyclone risk analysis.
Dorothy Heinrich, Erin Coughlan de Perez, Leanne Archer, Nadia Bloemendaal, Kevin I. Hodges, Helen Hooker, Theodore G. Shepherd, Nathan Sparks, Ralf Toumi, and Elisabeth Stephens
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2758, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2758, 2026
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Farrell Morgan, Ben Harvey, Kevin Hodges, and Oscar Martínez-Alvarado
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-289, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-289, 2026
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Lorenzo Sangelantoni, Stefano Tibaldi, Leone Cavicchia, Enrico Scoccimarro, Pier Luigi Vidale, Kevin Hodges, Vivien Mavel, Mattia Almansi, Chiara Cagnazzo, and Samuel Almond
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4157, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4157, 2025
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We introduce a new dataset of European windstorms linked to extratropical cyclones, spanning whole ERA5 reanalysis period (1940–present). Developed under Copernicus Climate Change Service, the dataset provides standardized, high-quality information on windstorm tracks and footprints for industries like insurance and risk management. Preliminary findings show an increase in cold-season windstorms and their impacts in parts of Europe. Tracking methods contribute to uncertainties in key statistics.
Karina von Schuckmann, Lorena Moreira, Mathilde Cancet, Flora Gues, Emmanuelle Autret, Jonathan Baker, Clément Bricaud, Romain Bourdalle-Badie, Lluis Castrillo, Lijing Cheng, Frederic Chevallier, Daniele Ciani, Alvaro de Pascual-Collar, Vincenzo De Toma, Marie Drevillon, Claudia Fanelli, Gilles Garric, Marion Gehlen, Rianne Giesen, Kevin Hodges, Doroteaciro Iovino, Simon Jandt-Scheelke, Eric Jansen, Melanie Juza, Ioanna Karagali, Thomas Lavergne, Simona Masina, Ronan McAdam, Audrey Minière, Helen Morrison, Tabea Rebekka Panteleit, Andrea Pisano, Marie-Isabelle Pujol, Ad Stoffelen, Sulian Thual, Simon Van Gennip, Pierre Veillard, Chunxue Yang, and Hao Zuo
State Planet, 4-osr8, 1, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-1-2024, 2024
Karina von Schuckmann, Lorena Moreira, Mathilde Cancet, Flora Gues, Emmanuelle Autret, Ali Aydogdu, Lluis Castrillo, Daniele Ciani, Andrea Cipollone, Emanuela Clementi, Gianpiero Cossarini, Alvaro de Pascual-Collar, Vincenzo De Toma, Marion Gehlen, Rianne Giesen, Marie Drevillon, Claudia Fanelli, Kevin Hodges, Simon Jandt-Scheelke, Eric Jansen, Melanie Juza, Ioanna Karagali, Priidik Lagemaa, Vidar Lien, Leonardo Lima, Vladyslav Lyubartsev, Ilja Maljutenko, Simona Masina, Ronan McAdam, Pietro Miraglio, Helen Morrison, Tabea Rebekka Panteleit, Andrea Pisano, Marie-Isabelle Pujol, Urmas Raudsepp, Roshin Raj, Ad Stoffelen, Simon Van Gennip, Pierre Veillard, and Chunxue Yang
State Planet, 4-osr8, 2, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-2-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-2-2024, 2024
Alexander Frank Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2115–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, 2024
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The risk posed to ships by Arctic cyclones has seldom been quantified due to the lack of publicly available historical Arctic ship track data. This study investigates historical Arctic ship tracks, cyclone tracks, and shipping incident reports to determine the number of shipping incidents caused by the passage of Arctic cyclones. Results suggest that Arctic cyclones have not been hazardous to ships and that ships are resilient to the rough sea conditions caused by Arctic cyclones.
João Pedro Nobre, Manoel Gan, and Éder Paulo Vendrasco
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-198, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-198, 2023
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This study investigated the relationship between surface hydrometeorological variables and rainfall during the wet period of the South American Monsoon System (SAMS). We focused on the Central-West region of Brazil (WCB) and analyzed data from 1991–2021. We found that wetter soils were linked to increased rainfall, while dry conditions led to below-average rain. Latent heat fluxes, air temperature and planetary boundary layer height anomalies also varied with soil moisture levels.
Charlie C. Suitters, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Kevin I. Hodges, Reinhard K. H. Schiemann, and Duncan Ackerley
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 683–700, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-683-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-683-2023, 2023
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Atmospheric blocking describes large and persistent high surface pressure. In this study, the relationship between block persistence and smaller-scale systems is examined. Persistent blocks result from more interactions with small systems, but a block's persistence does not depend as strongly on the strength of these smaller features. This work is important because it provides more knowledge as to how blocks can be allowed to persist, which is something we still do not fully understand.
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Rafaela Jane Delfino, Gerry Bagtasa, Kevin Hodges, and Pier Luigi Vidale
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We showed the effects of altering the choice of cumulus schemes, surface flux options, and spectral nudging with a high level of sensitivity to cumulus schemes in simulating an intense typhoon. We highlight the advantage of using an ensemble of cumulus parameterizations to take into account the uncertainty in simulating typhoons such as Haiyan in 2013. This study is useful in addressing the growing need to plan and prepare for as well as reduce the impacts of intense typhoons in the Philippines.
Alexander F. Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1097–1112, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1097-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1097-2022, 2022
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Understanding the location and intensity of hazardous weather across the Arctic is important for assessing risks to infrastructure, shipping, and coastal communities. This study describes the typical lifetime and structure of intense winter and summer Arctic cyclones. Results show the composite development and structure of intense summer Arctic cyclones are different from intense winter Arctic and North Atlantic Ocean extra-tropical cyclones and from conceptual models.
Suzanne L. Gray, Kevin I. Hodges, Jonathan L. Vautrey, and John Methven
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1303–1324, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1303-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1303-2021, 2021
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This research demonstrates, using feature identification and tracking, that anticlockwise rotating vortices at about 7 km altitude called tropopause polar vortices frequently interact with storms developing in the Arctic region, affecting their structure and where they occur. This interaction has implications for the predictability of Arctic weather, given the long lifetime but a relatively small spatial scale of these vortices compared with the density of the polar observation network.
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Short summary
Cut-off lows (COLs) are weather systems with varied structures and lifecycles, from upper atmospheric to deep vortices. Deep, strong COLs are common around Australia and the southwestern Pacific in autumn and spring, while shallow, weak COLs occur more in summer near the Equator. Jet streams play a crucial role in COL development, with different jets influencing its depth and strength. The study also emphasizes the need for better representation of diabatic processes in reanalysis data.
Cut-off lows (COLs) are weather systems with varied structures and lifecycles, from upper...
