Articles | Volume 3, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-21-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-21-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
07 Jan 2022
Research article |
| 07 Jan 2022
| 07 Jan 2022
Interaction between Atlantic cyclones and Eurasian atmospheric blocking drives wintertime warm extremes in the high Arctic
Department of Meteorology and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Rodrigo Caballero
Department of Meteorology and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Gunilla Svensson
Department of Meteorology and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Lukas Papritz
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland
Related authors
John Prytherch, Sonja Murto, Ian Brown, Adam Ulfsbo, Brett F. Thornton, Volker Brüchert, Michael Tjernström, Anna Lunde Hermansson, Amanda T. Nylund, and Lina A. Holthusen
Biogeosciences, 21, 671–688, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-671-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-671-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We directly measured methane and carbon dioxide exchange between ocean or sea ice and the atmosphere during an icebreaker-based expedition to the central Arctic Ocean (CAO) in summer 2021. These measurements can help constrain climate models and carbon budgets. The methane measurements, the first such made in the CAO, are lower than previous estimates and imply that the CAO is an insignificant contributor to Arctic methane emission. Gas exchange rates are slower than previous estimates.
Tom V. Kokkonen, Sue Grimmond, Sonja Murto, Huizhi Liu, Anu-Maija Sundström, and Leena Järvi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 7001–7017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7001-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7001-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This is the first study to evaluate and correct the WATCH WFDEI reanalysis product in a highly polluted urban environment. It gives an important understanding of the uncertainties in reanalysis products in local-scale urban modelling in polluted environments and identifies and corrects the most important variables in hydrological modelling. This is also the first study to examine the effects of haze on the local-scale urban hydrological cycle.
Aleksa Stanković, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Rodrigo Caballero
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 821–837, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The article studies extreme winds near the surface over the North Atlantic Ocean. These winds are caused by storms that pass through this region. The strongest storms that have occurred in the winters from 1950–2020 are studied in detail and compared to weaker but still strong storms. The analysis shows that the storms associated with the strongest winds are preceded by another older storm that travelled through the same region and made the conditions suitable for development of extreme winds.
Katharina Hartmuth, Heini Wernli, and Lukas Papritz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-878, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-878, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we use large-ensemble climate model simulations to analyze extreme winters in the Barents Sea in a changing climate. We find that variability in both atmospheric processes and sea ice conditions determines the formation of such seasons in the present-day climate. The reduction in sea ice variability results in a decreasing importance of surface boundary conditions in a warmer climate, while the robust link shown for surface weather systems persists.
Lukas Jansing, Lukas Papritz, and Michael Sprenger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 463–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-463-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-463-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using an innovative approach, the descent of foehn is diagnosed from a Lagrangian perspective based on 15 kilometer-scale simulations combined with online trajectories. The descent is confined to distinct hotspots in the immediate lee of local mountain peaks and chains. Two detailed case studies reveal a varying wave regime to be associated with the descent. Furthermore, additional controlling factors, such as the diurnal cycle, likewise influence the descent activity.
Manfred Wendisch, Susanne Crewell, André Ehrlich, Andreas Herber, Benjamin Kirbus, Christof Lüpkes, Mario Mech, Steven J. Abel, Elisa F. Akansu, Felix Ament, Clémantyne Aubry, Sebastian Becker, Stephan Borrmann, Heiko Bozem, Marlen Brückner, Hans-Christian Clemen, Sandro Dahlke, Georgios Dekoutsidis, Julien Delanoë, Elena De La Torre Castro, Henning Dorff, Regis Dupuy, Oliver Eppers, Florian Ewald, Geet George, Irina V. Gorodetskaya, Sarah Grawe, Silke Groß, Jörg Hartmann, Silvia Henning, Lutz Hirsch, Evelyn Jäkel, Philipp Joppe, Olivier Jourdan, Zsofia Jurányi, Michail Karalis, Mona Kellermann, Marcus Klingebiel, Michael Lonardi, Johannes Lucke, Anna Luebke, Maximilian Maahn, Nina Maherndl, Marion Maturilli, Bernhard Mayer, Johanna Mayer, Stephan Mertes, Janosch Michaelis, Michel Michalkov, Guillaume Mioche, Manuel Moser, Hanno Müller, Roel Neggers, Davide Ori, Daria Paul, Fiona Paulus, Christian Pilz, Felix Pithan, Mira Pöhlker, Veronika Pörtge, Maximilian Ringel, Nils Risse, Gregory C. Roberts, Sophie Rosenburg, Johannes Röttenbacher, Janna Rückert, Michael Schäfer, Jonas Schäfer, Vera Schemannn, Imke Schirmacher, Jörg Schmidt, Sebastian Schmidt, Johannes Schneider, Sabrina Schnitt, Anja Schwarz, Holger Siebert, Harald Sodemann, Tim Sperzel, Gunnar Spreen, Bjorn Stevens, Frank Stratmann, Gunilla Svensson, Christian Tatzelt, Thomas Tuch, Timo Vihma, Christiane Voigt, Lea Volkmer, Andreas Walbröl, Anna Weber, Birgit Wehner, Bruno Wetzel, Martin Wirth, and Tobias Zinner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-783, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-783, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the globe. Warm air intrusions (WAIs) into the Arctic may play an important role in explaining this phenomenon. Cold air outbreaks (CAOs) out of the Arctic may link the Arctic climate changes to the mid-latitude weather. In our article we describe how to observe air mass transformations during CAOs and WAIs using three research aircraft instrumented wit state-of-the-art remote sensing and in-situ measurement devices.
Belinda Hotz, Lukas Papritz, and Matthias Röthlisberger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 323–343, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-323-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-323-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Analysing the vertical structure of temperature anomalies of recent record-breaking heatwaves reveals a complex four-dimensional interplay of anticyclone–heatwave interactions, with vertically strongly varying advective, adiabatic, and diabatic contributions to the respective temperature anomalies. The heatwaves featured bottom-heavy positive temperature anomalies, extending throughout the troposphere.
Marta Wenta, Christian M. Grams, Lukas Papritz, and Marc Federer
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 181–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-181-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-181-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study links air–sea interactions over the Gulf Stream to an atmospheric block in February 2019. We found that over 23 % of air masses that were lifted into the block by cyclones interacted with the Gulf Stream. As cyclones pass over the Gulf Stream, they cause intense surface evaporation events, preconditioning the environment for the development of cyclones. This implies that air–sea interactions over the Gulf Stream affect the large-scale dynamics in the North Atlantic–European region.
John Prytherch, Sonja Murto, Ian Brown, Adam Ulfsbo, Brett F. Thornton, Volker Brüchert, Michael Tjernström, Anna Lunde Hermansson, Amanda T. Nylund, and Lina A. Holthusen
Biogeosciences, 21, 671–688, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-671-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-671-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We directly measured methane and carbon dioxide exchange between ocean or sea ice and the atmosphere during an icebreaker-based expedition to the central Arctic Ocean (CAO) in summer 2021. These measurements can help constrain climate models and carbon budgets. The methane measurements, the first such made in the CAO, are lower than previous estimates and imply that the CAO is an insignificant contributor to Arctic methane emission. Gas exchange rates are slower than previous estimates.
Zen Mariani, Sara Morris, Taneil Uttal, Elena Akish, Robert Crawford, Laura Huang, Jonathan Day, Johanna Tjernström, Øystein Godøy, Lara Ferrighi, Leslie Hartten, Jareth Holt, Christopher Cox, Ewan O'Connor, Roberta Pirazzini, Marion Maturilli, Giri Prakash, James Mather, Kimberly Strong, Pierre Fogal, Vasily Kustov, Gunilla Svensson, Michael Gallagher, and Brian Vasel
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-497, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-497, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
During the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) we increased measurements in the polar regions and have made dedicated efforts to centralize and standardize all of the different types of data sets that have been collected to facilitate user uptake and model-observation comparisons. This paper is an overview of those efforts and a description of the novel standardized Merged Observation Data Files (MODF), including a description of the sites, data format, and instruments.
Jonathan Day, Gunilla Svensson, Barbara Casati, Taniel Uttal, Siri-Jodha Khalsa, Eric Bazile, Elena Akish, Niramson Azouz, Lara Ferrighi, Helmut Frank, Michael Gallagher, Øystein Godøy, Leslie Hartten, Laura X. Huang, Jareth Holt, Massimo Di Stefano, Irene Suomi, Zen Mariani, Sara Morris, Ewan O'Connor, Roberta Pirazzini, Teresa Remes, Rostislav Fadeev, Amy Solomon, Johanna Tjernström, and Mikhail Tolstykh
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1951, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1951, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The YOPP site Model Inter-comparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP) which was designed to facilitate enhanced weather forecast evaluation in polar regions. The paper focusses on describing the archive of forecast data and presents a multi-model evaluation at Arctic supersites during February and March 2018. The study highlights an underestimation in boundary layer temperature variance which is common across models and their related inability to forecast cold extremes at several of the sites.
Taneil Uttal, Leslie M. Hartten, Siri Jodha Khalsa, Barbara Casati, Gunilla Svensson, Jonathan Day, Jareth Holt, Elena Akish, Sara Morris, Ewan O'Connor, Roberta Pirazzini, Laura X. Huang, Robert Crawford, Zen Mariani, Øystein Godøy, Johanna A. K. Tjernström, Giri Prakash, Nicki Hickmon, Marion Maturilli, and Christopher J. Cox
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2413, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2413, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A Merged Observatory Data File (MODF) format is presented to systematically collate complex atmosphere, ocean and terrestrial data sets collected by multiple instruments during field campaigns. The MODF format is designed to be applicable to model output data to create format-matching Merged Model Data Files (MMDFs). MODFs + MMDFs will augment and accelerate the synergistic use of model results with observational data to increase understanding and predictive skill.
Tiina Nygård, Lukas Papritz, Tuomas Naakka, and Timo Vihma
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 943–961, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-943-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-943-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the general warming trend, wintertime cold-air outbreaks in Europe have remained nearly as extreme and as common as decades ago. In this study, we identify six principal cold anomaly types over Europe in 1979–2020. We show the origins of various physical processes and their contributions to the formation of cold wintertime air masses.
Emma Holmberg, Gabriele Messori, Rodrigo Caballero, and Davide Faranda
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 737–765, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-737-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-737-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the duration of large-scale patterns of air movement in the atmosphere, referred to as persistence, and whether unusually persistent patterns favour warm-temperature extremes in Europe. We see no clear relationship between summertime heatwaves and unusually persistent patterns. This suggests that heatwaves do not necessarily require the continued flow of warm air over a region and that local effects could be important for their occurrence.
Felix Pithan, Marylou Athanase, Sandro Dahlke, Antonio Sánchez-Benítez, Matthew D. Shupe, Anne Sledd, Jan Streffing, Gunilla Svensson, and Thomas Jung
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1857–1873, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1857-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1857-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Evaluating climate models usually requires long observational time series, but we present a method that also works for short field campaigns. We compare climate model output to observations from the MOSAiC expedition in the central Arctic Ocean. All models show how the arrival of a warm air mass warms the Arctic in April 2020, but two models do not show the response of snow temperature to the diurnal cycle. One model has too little liquid water and too much ice in clouds during cold days.
Lukas Jansing, Lukas Papritz, Bruno Dürr, Daniel Gerstgrasser, and Michael Sprenger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1113–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1113-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1113-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a 5-year climatology of three main foehn types and three deep-foehn subtypes. The main types differ in their large-scale and Alpine-scale weather conditions and the subtypes in terms of the amount and extent of precipitation on the Alpine south side. The different types of foehn are found to strongly affect the local meteorological conditions at Altdorf. The study concludes by setting the new classification into a historic context.
Sebastian Schemm, Lukas Papritz, and Gwendal Rivière
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 601–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-601-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-601-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Much of the change in our daily weather patterns is due to the development and intensification of extratropical cyclones. The response of these systems to climate change is an important topic of ongoing research. This study is the first to reproduce the changes in the North Atlantic circulation and extratropical cyclone characteristics found in fully coupled Earth system models under high-CO2 scenarios, but in an idealized, reduced-complexity simulation with uniform warming.
Katharina Hartmuth, Maxi Boettcher, Heini Wernli, and Lukas Papritz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 89–111, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-89-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-89-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we introduce a novel method to objectively define and identify extreme Arctic seasons based on different surface variables. We find that such seasons are resulting from various combinations of unusual seasonal conditions. The occurrence or absence of different atmospheric processes strongly affects the character of extreme Arctic seasons. Further, changes in sea ice and sea surface temperature can strongly influence the formation of such a season in distinct regions.
Lukas Papritz, David Hauswirth, and Katharina Hartmuth
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Water vapor profoundly impacts the Arctic, for example by contributing to sea ice melt. A substantial portion of water vapor in the Arctic originates at mid-latitudes and is transported poleward in a few episodic and intense events. This transport is accomplished by low- and high-pressure systems occurring in specific regions or following particular tracks. Here, we explore how the type of weather system impacts where the water vapor is coming from and how it is transported poleward.
Lena Frey, Frida A.-M. Bender, and Gunilla Svensson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 577–595, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-577-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-577-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the vertical distribution of aerosol in the climate model NorESM1-M in five regions of marine stratocumulus clouds. We thereby analyze the total aerosol extinction to facilitate a comparison with satellite data. We find that the model underestimates aerosol extinction throughout the troposphere, especially elevated aerosol layers. Further, we perform sensitivity experiments to identify the processes most important for vertical aerosol distribution in our model.
Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Iuliia Polkova, Lukas Papritz, Paolo Ruggieri, Martin P. King, Panos J. Athanasiadis, Johanna Baehr, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 541–553, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-541-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-541-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the stratospheric influence on marine cold air outbreaks (MCAOs) in the North Atlantic using ERA-Interim reanalysis data. MCAOs are associated with severe Arctic weather, such as polar lows and strong surface winds. Sudden stratospheric events are found to be associated with more frequent MCAOs in the Barents and the Norwegian seas, affected by the anomalous circulation over Greenland and Scandinavia. Identification of MCAO precursors is crucial for improved long-range prediction.
Mauro Hermann, Lukas Papritz, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 497–518, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-497-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-497-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We find, by tracing backward in time, that air masses causing extensive melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet originate from further south and lower altitudes than usual. Their exceptional warmth further arises due to ascent and cloud formation, which is special compared to near-surface heat waves in the midlatitudes or the central Arctic. The atmospheric systems and transport pathways identified here are crucial in understanding and simulating the atmospheric control of the ice sheet in the future.
Ying Liu, Rodrigo Caballero, and Joy Merwin Monteiro
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4399–4412, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4399-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4399-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The calculation of atmospheric radiative transfer is the most computationally expensive part of climate models. Reducing this computational burden could potentially improve our ability to simulate the earth's climate at finer scales. We propose using a statistical model – a deep neural network – to compute approximate radiative transfer in the earth's atmosphere. We demonstrate a significant reduction in computational burden as compared to a traditional scheme, especially when using GPUs.
Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Christian M. Grams, and Lukas Papritz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 373–388, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-373-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-373-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We cannot currently predict the weather over Europe beyond 2 weeks. The stratosphere provides a promising opportunity to go beyond that limit by providing a change in probability of certain weather regimes at the surface. However, not all stratospheric extreme events are followed by the same surface weather evolution. We show that this weather evolution is related to the tropospheric weather regime around the onset of the stratospheric extreme event for many stratospheric events.
Tom V. Kokkonen, Sue Grimmond, Sonja Murto, Huizhi Liu, Anu-Maija Sundström, and Leena Järvi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 7001–7017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7001-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7001-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This is the first study to evaluate and correct the WATCH WFDEI reanalysis product in a highly polluted urban environment. It gives an important understanding of the uncertainties in reanalysis products in local-scale urban modelling in polluted environments and identifies and corrects the most important variables in hydrological modelling. This is also the first study to examine the effects of haze on the local-scale urban hydrological cycle.
Xiang-Yu Li, Gunilla Svensson, Axel Brandenburg, and Nils E. L. Haugen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 639–648, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-639-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-639-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The broadening of droplet size distributions in stratiform clouds, where the updraft velocity is almost zero, is puzzling. Without turbulence, the classical treatment of condensational growth of cloud droplets fails to explain this
broadening. We investigated the time evolution of droplet size distributions using direct numerical simulations, where turbulence is resolved into the smallest scales. We found that the broadening is due to the turbulence-facilitated supersaturation fluctuations.
Kerstin Hartung, Gunilla Svensson, Hamish Struthers, Anna-Lena Deppenmeier, and Wilco Hazeleger
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4117–4137, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4117-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4117-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Single-column models have been used to develop weather and climate models for several decades. They decouple small-scale processes from large-scale forcing and allow us to test models in a controlled environment with reduced computational cost. Here, we present a fully coupled atmosphere–ocean single-column model, including sea ice. We demonstrate that it is a valuable tool to advance our understanding in marine and polar boundary layer processes and interactions of their coupled components.
Joy Merwin Monteiro, Jeremy McGibbon, and Rodrigo Caballero
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3781–3794, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3781-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3781-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In the same way that the fruit fly or the yeast cell serve as model systems in biology, climate scientists use a range of computer models to gain a fundamental understanding of our climate system. These models range from extremely simple models that can run on your phone to those that require supercomputers. Sympl and climt are packages that make it easy for climate scientists to build a hierarchy of such models using Python, which facilitates easy to read and self-documenting models.
David K. Hutchinson, Agatha M. de Boer, Helen K. Coxall, Rodrigo Caballero, Johan Nilsson, and Michiel Baatsen
Clim. Past, 14, 789–810, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-789-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-789-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Eocene--Oligocene transition was a major cooling event 34 million years ago. Climate model studies of this transition have used low ocean resolution or topography that roughly approximates the time period. We present a new climate model simulation of the late Eocene, with higher ocean resolution and topography which is accurately designed for this time period. These features improve the ocean circulation and gateways which are thought to be important for this climate transition.
Henrik Carlson and Rodrigo Caballero
Clim. Past, 13, 1037–1048, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1037-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1037-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models are able to simulate the surface temperature of the early Eocene as reconstructed from paleoclimatology data, but only by using extremely high CO2 concentrations or clouds that are more transparent to solar radiation. We explore the potential for distinguishing among these two forcing agents via their impact on regional climate. Better constraining the radiative forcing that led to Eocene warmth has important implications for understanding Earth's climate sensitivity.
Lena Frey, Frida A.-M. Bender, and Gunilla Svensson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 9145–9162, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9145-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9145-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, the cloud albedo effect in climate models is investigated, separating the influence of anthropogenic sulfate and non-sulfate aerosols. Cloud albedo changes induced by added anthropogenic aerosols are found to be determined by changes in the cloud water content rather than model sensitivity to monthly aerosol variations. The results also indicate that the background aerosol is the main driver for a cloud brightening effect on the month-to-month scale.
Daniel J. Lunt, Matthew Huber, Eleni Anagnostou, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Rodrigo Caballero, Rob DeConto, Henk A. Dijkstra, Yannick Donnadieu, David Evans, Ran Feng, Gavin L. Foster, Ed Gasson, Anna S. von der Heydt, Chris J. Hollis, Gordon N. Inglis, Stephen M. Jones, Jeff Kiehl, Sandy Kirtland Turner, Robert L. Korty, Reinhardt Kozdon, Srinath Krishnan, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, Petra Langebroek, Caroline H. Lear, Allegra N. LeGrande, Kate Littler, Paul Markwick, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Paul Pearson, Christopher J. Poulsen, Ulrich Salzmann, Christine Shields, Kathryn Snell, Michael Stärz, James Super, Clay Tabor, Jessica E. Tierney, Gregory J. L. Tourte, Aradhna Tripati, Garland R. Upchurch, Bridget S. Wade, Scott L. Wing, Arne M. E. Winguth, Nicky M. Wright, James C. Zachos, and Richard E. Zeebe
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 889–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-889-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-889-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we describe the experimental design for a set of simulations which will be carried out by a range of climate models, all investigating the climate of the Eocene, about 50 million years ago. The intercomparison of model results is called 'DeepMIP', and we anticipate that we will contribute to the next IPCC report through an analysis of these simulations and the geological data to which we will compare them.
M. Löfverström, R. Caballero, J. Nilsson, and J. Kleman
Clim. Past, 10, 1453–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1453-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1453-2014, 2014
A. Goldner, M. Huber, and R. Caballero
Clim. Past, 9, 173–189, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-173-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-173-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Dynamical processes in polar regions, incl. polar–midlatitude interactions
The study of the impact of polar warming on global atmospheric circulation and mid-latitude baroclinic waves using a laboratory analog
A comparison of the atmospheric response to the Weddell Sea Polynya in atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) of varying resolutions
European summer weather linked to North Atlantic freshwater anomalies in preceding years
Circulation responses to surface heating and implications for polar amplification
On the linkage between future Arctic sea ice retreat, Euro-Atlantic circulation regimes and temperature extremes over Europe
The role of boundary layer processes in summer-time Arctic cyclones
Reconciling conflicting evidence for the cause of the observed early 21st century Eurasian cooling
The role of Rossby waves in polar weather and climate
Reanalysis representation of low-level winds in the Antarctic near-coastal region
The composite development and structure of intense synoptic-scale Arctic cyclones
Improved teleconnection between Arctic sea ice and the North Atlantic Oscillation through stochastic process representation
Jet stream variability in a polar warming scenario – a laboratory perspective
Pacific Decadal Oscillation modulates the Arctic sea-ice loss influence on the midlatitude atmospheric circulation in winter
Summertime changes in climate extremes over the peripheral Arctic regions after a sudden sea ice retreat
A global climatology of polar lows investigated for local differences and wind-shear environments
Characteristics of long-track tropopause polar vortices
Identification, characteristics and dynamics of Arctic extreme seasons
Moisture origin, transport pathways, and driving processes of intense wintertime moisture transport into the Arctic
The role of tropopause polar vortices in the intensification of summer Arctic cyclones
Dynamical and surface impacts of the January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming in novel Aeolus wind observations, MLS and ERA5
Dynamical drivers of Greenland blocking in climate models
Interactive 3-D visual analysis of ERA5 data: improving diagnostic indices for marine cold air outbreaks and polar lows
Polar lows – moist-baroclinic cyclones developing in four different vertical wind shear environments
Lagrangian detection of precipitation moisture sources for an arid region in northeast Greenland: relations to the North Atlantic Oscillation, sea ice cover, and temporal trends from 1979 to 2017
Stratospheric influence on North Atlantic marine cold air outbreaks following sudden stratospheric warming events
A Lagrangian analysis of the dynamical and thermodynamic drivers of large-scale Greenland melt events during 1979–2017
Intermittency of Arctic–mid-latitude teleconnections: stratospheric pathway between autumn sea ice and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation
The role of wave–wave interactions in sudden stratospheric warming formation
Andrei Sukhanovskii, Andrei Gavrilov, Elena Popova, and Andrei Vasiliev
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 863–880, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-863-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-863-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
One of the intriguing problems associated with recent climate trends is the rapid temperature increase in the Arctic. In this paper, we address the Arctic warming problem using a laboratory atmospheric general circulation model. We show that variations in polar cooling lead to significant changes in polar-cell structure, resulting in a substantial increase in temperature. Our modeling results provide a plausible explanation for Arctic warming amplification.
Holly C. Ayres, David Ferreira, Wonsun Park, Joakim Kjellsson, and Malin Ödalen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 805–820, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-805-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-805-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Weddell Sea Polynya (WSP) is a large, closed-off opening in winter sea ice that has opened only a couple of times since we started using satellites to observe sea ice. The aim of this study is to determine the impact of the WSP on the atmosphere. We use three numerical models of the atmosphere, and for each, we use two levels of detail. We find that the WSP causes warming but only locally, alongside an increase in precipitation, and shows some dependence on the large-scale background winds.
Marilena Oltmanns, N. Penny Holliday, James Screen, Ben I. Moat, Simon A. Josey, D. Gwyn Evans, and Sheldon Bacon
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 109–132, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-109-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-109-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The melting of land ice and sea ice leads to freshwater input into the ocean. Based on observations, we show that stronger freshwater anomalies in the subpolar North Atlantic in winter are followed by warmer and drier weather over Europe in summer. The identified link indicates an enhanced predictability of European summer weather at least a winter in advance. It further suggests that warmer and drier summers over Europe can become more frequent under increased freshwater fluxes in the future.
Peter Yu Feng Siew, Camille Li, Stefan Pieter Sobolowski, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, and Mingfang Ting
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3066, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3066, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The atmospheric circulation response to surface heating at various latitudes was investigated within an idealized framework. We confirm previous results on the importance of temperature advection for balancing heating at lower latitudes. Further poleward, transient eddies become increasingly important and, eventually, radiative cooling also contributes. This promotes amplified surface warming for high-latitude heating, and has implications for links between sea ice loss and polar amplification.
Johannes Riebold, Andy Richling, Uwe Ulbrich, Henning Rust, Tido Semmler, and Dörthe Handorf
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 663–682, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-663-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-663-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Arctic sea ice loss might impact the atmospheric circulation outside the Arctic and therefore extremes over mid-latitudes. Here, we analyze model experiments to initially assess the influence of sea ice loss on occurrence frequencies of large-scale circulation patterns. Some of these detected circulation changes can be linked to changes in occurrences of European temperature extremes. Compared to future global temperature increases, the sea-ice-related impacts are however of secondary relevance.
Hannah L. Croad, John Methven, Ben Harvey, Sarah P. E. Keeley, and Ambrogio Volonté
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 617–638, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-617-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-617-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The interaction between Arctic cyclones and the sea ice surface in summer is investigated by analysing the friction and sensible heat flux processes acting in two cyclones with contrasting evolution. The major finding is that the effects of friction on cyclone strength are dependent on a particular feature of cyclone structure: whether they have a warm or cold core during growth. Friction leads to cooling within both cyclone types in the lower atmosphere, which may contribute to their longevity.
Stephen Outten, Camille Li, Martin P. King, Lingling Suo, Peter Y. F. Siew, Hoffman Cheung, Richard Davy, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Tore Furevik, Shengping He, Erica Madonna, Stefan Sobolowski, Thomas Spengler, and Tim Woollings
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 95–114, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-95-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-95-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Strong disagreement exists in the scientific community over the role of Arctic sea ice in shaping wintertime Eurasian cooling. The observed Eurasian cooling can arise naturally without sea-ice loss but is expected to be a rare event. We propose a framework that incorporates sea-ice retreat and natural variability as contributing factors. A helpful analogy is of a dice roll that may result in cooling, warming, or anything in between, with sea-ice loss acting to load the dice in favour of cooling.
Tim Woollings, Camille Li, Marie Drouard, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Karim A. Elmestekawy, Momme Hell, Brian Hoskins, Cheikh Mbengue, Matthew Patterson, and Thomas Spengler
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 61–80, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-61-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-61-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper investigates large-scale atmospheric variability in polar regions, specifically the balance between large-scale turbulence and Rossby wave activity. The polar regions are relatively more dominated by turbulence than lower latitudes, but Rossby waves are found to play a role and can even be triggered from high latitudes under certain conditions. Features such as cyclone lifetimes, high-latitude blocks, and annular modes are discussed from this perspective.
Thomas Caton Harrison, Stavroula Biri, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, John C. King, Elizabeth C. Kent, Étienne Vignon, and John Turner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1415–1437, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1415-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1415-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Easterly winds encircle Antarctica, impacting sea ice and helping drive ocean currents which shield ice shelves from warmer waters. Reanalysis datasets give us our most complete picture of how these winds behave. In this paper we use satellite data, surface measurements and weather balloons to test how realistic recent reanalysis estimates are. The winds are generally accurate, especially in the most recent of the datasets, but important short-term variations are often misrepresented.
Alexander F. Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1097–1112, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1097-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1097-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding the location and intensity of hazardous weather across the Arctic is important for assessing risks to infrastructure, shipping, and coastal communities. This study describes the typical lifetime and structure of intense winter and summer Arctic cyclones. Results show the composite development and structure of intense summer Arctic cyclones are different from intense winter Arctic and North Atlantic Ocean extra-tropical cyclones and from conceptual models.
Kristian Strommen, Stephan Juricke, and Fenwick Cooper
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 951–975, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-951-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-951-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Observational data suggest that the extent of Arctic sea ice influences mid-latitude winter weather. However, climate models generally fail to reproduce this link, making it unclear if models are missing something or if the observed link is just a coincidence. We show that if one explicitly represents the effect of unresolved sea ice variability in a climate model, then it is able to reproduce this link. This implies that the link may be real but that many models simply fail to simulate it.
Costanza Rodda, Uwe Harlander, and Miklos Vincze
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 937–950, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-937-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-937-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We report on a set of laboratory experiments that reproduce a global warming scenario. The experiments show that a decreased temperature difference between the poles and subtropics slows down the eastward propagation of the mid-latitude weather patterns. Another consequence is that the temperature variations diminish, and hence extreme temperature events might become milder in a global warming scenario. Our experiments also show that the frequency of such events increases.
Amélie Simon, Guillaume Gastineau, Claude Frankignoul, Vladimir Lapin, and Pablo Ortega
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 845–861, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-845-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-845-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of the Arctic sea-ice loss on atmospheric circulation in midlatitudes depends on persistent sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific. In winter, Arctic sea-ice loss and a warm North Pacific Ocean both induce depressions over the North Pacific and North Atlantic, an anticyclone over Greenland, and a stratospheric anticyclone over the Arctic. However, the effects are not additive as the interaction between both signals is slightly destructive.
Steve Delhaye, Thierry Fichefet, François Massonnet, David Docquier, Rym Msadek, Svenya Chripko, Christopher Roberts, Sarah Keeley, and Retish Senan
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 555–573, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-555-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-555-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
It is unclear how the atmosphere will respond to a retreat of summer Arctic sea ice. Much attention has been paid so far to weather extremes at mid-latitude and in winter. Here we focus on the changes in extremes in surface air temperature and precipitation over the Arctic regions in summer during and following abrupt sea ice retreats. We find that Arctic sea ice loss clearly shifts the extremes in surface air temperature and precipitation over terrestrial regions surrounding the Arctic Ocean.
Patrick Johannes Stoll
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 483–504, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-483-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-483-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Polar lows are small but intense cyclones and constitute one of the major natural hazards in the polar regions. To be aware of when and where polar lows occur, this study maps polar lows globally by utilizing new atmospheric datasets. Polar lows develop in all marine areas adjacent to sea ice or cold landmasses, mainly in the winter half year. The highest frequency appears in the Nordic Seas. Further, it is found that polar lows are rather similar in the different ocean sub-basins.
Matthew T. Bray and Steven M. Cavallo
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 251–278, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-251-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-251-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Tropopause polar vortices (TPVs) are a high-latitude atmospheric phenomenon that impact weather inside and outside of polar regions. Using a set of long-lived TPVs to gain insight into the conditions that are most supportive of TPV survival, we describe patterns of vortex formation and movement. In addition, we analyze the characteristics of these TPVs and how they vary by season. These results help us to better understand TPVs which, in turn, may improve forecasts of related weather events.
Katharina Hartmuth, Maxi Boettcher, Heini Wernli, and Lukas Papritz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 89–111, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-89-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-89-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we introduce a novel method to objectively define and identify extreme Arctic seasons based on different surface variables. We find that such seasons are resulting from various combinations of unusual seasonal conditions. The occurrence or absence of different atmospheric processes strongly affects the character of extreme Arctic seasons. Further, changes in sea ice and sea surface temperature can strongly influence the formation of such a season in distinct regions.
Lukas Papritz, David Hauswirth, and Katharina Hartmuth
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Water vapor profoundly impacts the Arctic, for example by contributing to sea ice melt. A substantial portion of water vapor in the Arctic originates at mid-latitudes and is transported poleward in a few episodic and intense events. This transport is accomplished by low- and high-pressure systems occurring in specific regions or following particular tracks. Here, we explore how the type of weather system impacts where the water vapor is coming from and how it is transported poleward.
Suzanne L. Gray, Kevin I. Hodges, Jonathan L. Vautrey, and John Methven
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1303–1324, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1303-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1303-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This research demonstrates, using feature identification and tracking, that anticlockwise rotating vortices at about 7 km altitude called tropopause polar vortices frequently interact with storms developing in the Arctic region, affecting their structure and where they occur. This interaction has implications for the predictability of Arctic weather, given the long lifetime but a relatively small spatial scale of these vortices compared with the density of the polar observation network.
Corwin J. Wright, Richard J. Hall, Timothy P. Banyard, Neil P. Hindley, Isabell Krisch, Daniel M. Mitchell, and William J. M. Seviour
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1283–1301, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1283-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1283-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are some of the most dramatic events in the atmosphere and are believed to help cause extreme winter weather events such as the 2018 Beast from the East in Europe and North America. Here, we use unique data from the European Space Agency's new Aeolus satellite to make the first-ever measurements at a global scale of wind changes due to an SSW in the lower part of the atmosphere to help us understand how SSWs affect the atmosphere and surface weather.
Clio Michel, Erica Madonna, Clemens Spensberger, Camille Li, and Stephen Outten
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1131–1148, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1131-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1131-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models still struggle to correctly represent blocking frequency over the North Atlantic–European domain. This study makes use of five large ensembles of climate simulations and the ERA-Interim reanalyses to investigate the Greenland blocking frequency and one of its drivers, namely cyclonic Rossby wave breaking. We particularly try to understand the discrepancies between two specific models, out of the five, that behave differently.
Marcel Meyer, Iuliia Polkova, Kameswar Rao Modali, Laura Schaffer, Johanna Baehr, Stephan Olbrich, and Marc Rautenhaus
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 867–891, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-867-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-867-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Novel techniques from computer science are used to study extreme weather events. Inspired by the interactive 3-D visual analysis of the recently released ERA5 reanalysis data, we improve commonly used metrics for measuring polar winter storms and outbreaks of cold air. The software (Met.3D) that we have extended and applied as part of this study is freely available and can be used generically for 3-D visualization of a broad variety of atmospheric processes in weather and climate data.
Patrick Johannes Stoll, Thomas Spengler, Annick Terpstra, and Rune Grand Graversen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 19–36, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-19-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-19-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Polar lows are intense meso-scale cyclones occurring at high latitudes. The research community has not agreed on a conceptual model to describe polar-low development. Here, we apply self-organising maps to identify the typical ambient sub-synoptic environments of polar lows and find that they can be described as moist-baroclinic cyclones that develop in four different environments characterised by the vertical wind shear.
Lilian Schuster, Fabien Maussion, Lukas Langhamer, and Gina E. Moseley
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation and moisture sources over an arid region in northeast Greenland are investigated from 1979 to 2017 by a Lagrangian moisture source diagnostic driven by reanalysis data. Dominant winter moisture sources are the North Atlantic above 45° N. In summer local and north Eurasian continental sources dominate. In positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation, evaporation and moisture transport from the Norwegian Sea are stronger, resulting in more precipitation.
Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Iuliia Polkova, Lukas Papritz, Paolo Ruggieri, Martin P. King, Panos J. Athanasiadis, Johanna Baehr, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 541–553, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-541-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-541-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the stratospheric influence on marine cold air outbreaks (MCAOs) in the North Atlantic using ERA-Interim reanalysis data. MCAOs are associated with severe Arctic weather, such as polar lows and strong surface winds. Sudden stratospheric events are found to be associated with more frequent MCAOs in the Barents and the Norwegian seas, affected by the anomalous circulation over Greenland and Scandinavia. Identification of MCAO precursors is crucial for improved long-range prediction.
Mauro Hermann, Lukas Papritz, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 497–518, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-497-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-497-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We find, by tracing backward in time, that air masses causing extensive melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet originate from further south and lower altitudes than usual. Their exceptional warmth further arises due to ascent and cloud formation, which is special compared to near-surface heat waves in the midlatitudes or the central Arctic. The atmospheric systems and transport pathways identified here are crucial in understanding and simulating the atmospheric control of the ice sheet in the future.
Peter Yu Feng Siew, Camille Li, Stefan Pieter Sobolowski, and Martin Peter King
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 261–275, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-261-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-261-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Arctic sea ice loss has been linked to changes in mid-latitude weather and climate. However, the literature offers differing views on the strength, robustness, and even existence of these linkages. We use a statistical tool (Causal Effect Networks) to show that one proposed pathway linking Barents–Kara ice and mid-latitude circulation is intermittent in observations and likely only active under certain conditions. This result may help explain apparent inconsistencies across previous studies.
Erik A. Lindgren and Aditi Sheshadri
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 93–109, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-93-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-93-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are extreme events that influence surface weather up to 2 months after onset. We remove wave–wave interactions (WWIs) in vertical sections of a general circulation model to investigate the role of WWIs in SSW formation. We show that the effects of WWIs depend strongly on the pressure levels where they occur and the zonal structure of the wave forcing in the troposphere. Our results highlight the importance of upper-level processes in stratospheric dynamics.
Cited articles
Årthun, M., Eldevik, T. R., and Eldevik, T.: On Anomalous Ocean Heat Transport toward the Arctic and Associated Climate Predictability, J. Climate, 29, 689–704, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0448.1, 2016. a
Baggett, C., Lee, S., and Feldstein, S.: An investigation of the presence of atmospheric rivers over the North Pacific during planetary-scale wave life cycles and their role in Arctic warming, J. Atmos. Sci., 73, 4329–4347, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-16-0033.1, 2016. a
Binder, H., Boettcher, M., Grams, C. M., Joos, H., Pfahl, S., and Wernli, H.:
Exceptional air mass transport and dynamical drivers of an extreme wintertime
Arctic warm event, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 12028–12036, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075841, 2017. a, b, c
Boisvert, L. N., Petty, A. A., and Stroeve, J. C.: The impact of the extreme winter 2015/16 Arctic cyclone on the Barents–Kara Seas, Mon. Weather Rev., 144, 4279–4287, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0234.1, 2016. a, b
Cohen, J., Screen, J. A., Furtado, J. C., Barlow, M., Whittleston, D., Coumou, D., Francis, J., Dethloff, K., Entekhabi, D., Overland, J., and Jones, J.: Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather, Nat. Geosci., 7, 627–637, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2234, 2014. a, b
Colucci, S. J.: Explosive cyclogenesis and large-scale circulation changes: Implications for atmospheric blocking, J. Atmos. Sci., 42, 2701–2717, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1985)042<2701:ECALSC>2.0.CO;2, 1985. a
Croci-Maspoli, M. and Davies, H. C.: Key dynamical features of the 2005/06 European winter, Mon. Weather Rev., 137, 664–678, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2533.1, 2009. a, b, c, d
Croci-Maspoli, M., Schwierz, C., and Davies, H.: A multifaceted climatology of atmospheric blocking and its recent linear trend, J. Climate, 20, 633–649, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4029.1, 2007. a, b, c
Cullather, R. I., Lim, Y.-K., Boisvert, L. N., Brucker, L., Lee, J. N., and Nowicki, S. M. J.: Analysis of the warmest Arctic winter, 2015–2016, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 10808–10816, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071228, 2016. a
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A., et al.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011 (data available at: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/archive-datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era-interim, last access: 23 March 2017). a, b
Ding, Q., Schweiger, A., L'Heureux, M., Battisti, D. S., Po-Chedley, S., Johnson, N. C., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Harnos, K., Zhang, Q., Eastman, R., and Steig, E. J.: Influence of high-latitude atmospheric circulation changes on summertime Arctic sea ice, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 289–296, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3241, 2017. a, b
Doyle, J., Lesins, G., Thackray, C., Perro, C., Nott, G., Duck, T., Damoah, R., and Drummond, J.: Water vapor intrusions into the High Arctic during winter, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L12806, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047493, 2011. a
Fearon, M. G., Doyle, J. D., Ryglicki, D. R., Finocchio, P. M., and
Sprenger, M.: The Role of Cyclones in Moisture Transport into the Arctic,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2020GL090353, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090353,
2020. a, b, c, d
Francis, J. A. and Hunter, E.: New insight into the disappearing Arctic sea ice, EOS T. Am. Geophys. Un., 87, 509–511, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006EO460001, 2006. a
Gimeno, L., Vázquez, M., Eiras-Barca, J., Sorí, R., Algarra, I., and Nieto, R.: Atmospheric moisture transport and the decline in Arctic Sea ice, WIREs Clim. Change, 10, e588, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.588, 2019. a
Gong, T. and Luo, D.: Ural blocking as an amplifier of the Arctic sea ice decline in winter, J. Climate, 30, 2639–2654, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0548.1, 2017. a, b, c, d
Graversen, R. G.: Do changes in midlatitude circulation have any impact on the Arctic surface air temperature trend?, J. Climate, 19, 5422–5438, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3906.1, 2006. a
Grose, W. L. and Hoskins, B. J.: On the influence of orography on large-scale atmospheric flow, J. Atmos. Sci., 36, 223–234, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1979)036<0223:OTIOOO>2.0.CO;2, 1979. a
Hoskins, B. J. and Karoly, D. J.: The steady linear response of a spherical atmosphere to thermal and orographic forcing, J. Atmos. Sci., 38, 1179–1196, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1981)038<1179:TSLROA>2.0.CO;2, 1981. a
Hoskins, B. J., McIntyre, M. E., and Robertson, A. W.: On the use and significance of isentropic potential vorticity maps, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 111, 877–946, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49711147002, 1985. a, b, c
Kim, B.-M., Hong, J.-Y., Jun, S.-Y., Zhang, X., Kwon, H., Kim, S.-J., Kim, J.-H., Kim, S.-W., and Kim, H.-K.: Major cause of unprecedented Arctic warming in January 2016: Critical role of an Atlantic windstorm, Sci. Rep.-UK, 7, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep40051, 2017. a
Kim, H.-J., Son, S.-W., Moon, W., Kug, J.-S., and Hwang, J.: Subseasonal relationship between Arctic and Eurasian surface air temperature, Sci. Rep.-UK, 11, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-83486-5, 2021. a, b, c, d
Lenggenhager, S. and Martius, O.: Quantifying the link between heavy precipitation and Northern Hemisphere blocking – A Lagrangian analysis, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 21, e999, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.999, 2020. a
Liu, C. and Barnes, E. A.: Extreme moisture transport into the Arctic linked to Rossby wave breaking, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 3774–3788, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022796, 2015. a, b, c
Luo, B., Luo, D., Wu, L., Zhong, L., and Simmonds, I.: Atmospheric circulation patterns which promote winter Arctic sea ice decline, Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 054017, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa69d0, 2017. a, b, c
Luo, B., Wu, L., Luo, D., Dai, A., and Simmonds, I.: The winter midlatitude-Arctic interaction: Effects of North Atlantic SST and high-latitude blocking on Arctic sea ice and Eurasian cooling, Clim. Dynam., 52, 2981–3004, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4301-5, 2019. a, b, c
Luo, D., Xiao, Y., Diao, Y., Dai, A., Franzke, C. L., and Simmonds, I.: Impact of Ural blocking on winter warm Arctic–cold Eurasian anomalies. Part II: The link to the North Atlantic Oscillation, J. Climate, 29, 3949–3971, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0612.1, 2016a. a, b, c
Luo, D., Xiao, Y., Yao, Y., Dai, A., Simmonds, I., and Franzke, C. L.: Impact of Ural blocking on winter warm Arctic–cold Eurasian anomalies. Part I: Blocking-induced amplification, J. Climate, 29, 3925–3947, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0611.1, 2016b. a, b
Madonna, E., Wernli, H., Joos, H., and Martius, O.: Warm conveyor belts in the ERA-Interim dataset (1979–2010). Part I: Climatology and potential vorticity evolution, J. Climate, 27, 3–26, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00720.1, 2014. a, b, c
Madonna, E., Boettcher, M., Grams, C. M., Joos, H., Martius, O., and Wernli, H.: Verification of North Atlantic warm conveyor belt outflows in ECMWF forecasts, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 1333–1344, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2442, 2015. a
Madonna, E., Hes, G., Li, C., Michel, C., and Siew, P. Y. F.: Control of
Barents Sea wintertime cyclone variability by large-scale atmospheric flow,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL090322, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090322,
2020. a
Masato, G., Hoskins, B., and Woollings, T. J.: Wave-breaking characteristics of midlatitude blocking, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 138, 1285–1296, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.990, 2012. a
Moore, G.: The December 2015 North Pole warming event and the increasing occurrence of such events, Sci. Rep.-UK, 6, 39084, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep39084, 2016. a
Mortin, J., Svensson, G., Graversen, R. G., Kapsch, M.-L., Stroeve, J. C., and Boisvert, L. N.: Melt onset over Arctic sea ice controlled by atmospheric moisture transport, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 6636–6642, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069330, 2016. a
Murray, R. J. and Simmonds, I.: A numerical scheme for tracking cyclone centres from digital data. Part I: Development and operation of the scheme, Aust. Meteorol. Mag., 39, 155–166, 1991. a
Naakka, T., Nygård, T., Vihma, T., Sedlar, J., and Graversen, R.: Atmospheric moisture transport between mid-latitudes and the Arctic: Regional, seasonal and vertical distributions, Int. J. Climatol., 39, 2862–2879, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5988, 2019. a, b
Nakamura, H., Nakamura, M., and Anderson, J. L.: The role of high-and low-frequency dynamics in blocking formation, Mon. Weather Rev., 125, 2074–2093, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<2074:TROHAL>2.0.CO;2, 1997. a
Nygård, T., Graversen, R. G., Uotila, P., Naakka, T., and Vihma, T.: Strong dependence of wintertime Arctic moisture and cloud distributions on atmospheric large-scale circulation, J. Climate, 32, 8771–8790, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0242.1, 2019. a
Papritz, L.: Arctic lower-tropospheric warm and cold extremes: Horizontal and vertical transport, diabatic processes, and linkage to synoptic circulation features, J. Climate, 33, 993–1016, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0638.1, 2020. a, b, c
Papritz, L. and Dunn-Sigouin, E.: What Configuration of the Atmospheric Circulation Drives Extreme Net and Total Moisture Transport Into the Arctic, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL089769, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089769, 2020. a, b, c, d
Pelly, J. L. and Hoskins, B. J.: A new perspective on blocking, J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 743–755, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2003)060<0743:ANPOB>2.0.CO;2, 2003. a
Pfahl, S. and Wernli, H.: Quantifying the relevance of atmospheric blocking for co-located temperature extremes in the Northern Hemisphere on (sub-) daily time scales, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L12807, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052261, 2012. a
Pfahl, S., Madonna, E., Boettcher, M., Joos, H., and Wernli, H.: Warm conveyor belts in the ERA-Interim dataset (1979–2010). Part II: Moisture origin and relevance for precipitation, J. Climate, 27, 27–40, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00223.1, 2014. a
Pinto, J. G., Brücher, T., Fink, A. H., and Krüger, A.: Extraordinary snow accumulations over parts of central Europe during the winter of 2005/06 and weather-related hazards, Weather, 62, 16–21, https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.19, 2007. a
Pinto, J. G., Zacharias, S., Fink, A. H., Leckebusch, G. C., and Ulbrich, U.: Factors contributing to the development of extreme North Atlantic cyclones and their relationship with the NAO, Clim. Dynam., 32, 711–737, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0396-4, 2009. a, b
Pinto, J. G., Bellenbaum, N., Karremann, M. K., and Della-Marta, P. M.: Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe under recent and future climate conditions, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 12–476, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD020564, 2013. a
Pithan, F. and Mauritsen, T.: Arctic amplification dominated by temperature feedbacks in contemporary climate models, Nat. Geosci., 7, 181–184, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2071, 2014. a
Pithan, F., Svensson, G., Caballero, R., Chechin, D., Cronin, T. W., Ekman, A. M., Neggers, R., Shupe, M. D., Solomon, A., Tjernström, M., and Wendisch, M.: Role of air-mass transformations in exchange between the Arctic and mid-latitudes, Nat. Geosci., 11, 805–812, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0234-1, 2018. a
Reinhold, B. B. and Pierrehumbert, R. T.: Dynamics of weather regimes: Quasi-stationary waves and blocking, Mon. Weather Rev., 110, 1105–1145, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1982)110<1105:DOWRQS>2.0.CO;2, 1982. a
Richter-Menge, J. and Co-Authors: The Arctic. in: State of the Climate in 2019, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 101, 239–285, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0086.1, 2020. a
Schwierz, C., Croci-Maspoli, M., and Davies, H.: Perspicacious indicators of atmospheric blocking, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L06125, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL019341, 2004. a, b
Screen, J. A. and Simmonds, I.: The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification, Nature, 464, 1334–1337, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09051, 2010a. a
Screen, J. A. and Simmonds, I.: Increasing fall-winter energy loss from the Arctic Ocean and its role in Arctic temperature amplification, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L16707, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044136, 2010b. a
Serreze, M. C. and Barry, R. G.: Processes and impacts of Arctic amplification: A research synthesis, Global Planet. Change, 77, 85–96, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.03.004, 2011. a
Serreze, M. C., Barrett, A. P., and Stroeve, J.: Recent changes in tropospheric water vapor over the Arctic as assessed from radiosondes and atmospheric reanalyses, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 117, D10104, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD017421, 2012. a
Simmonds, I.: Comparing and contrasting the behaviour of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice over the 35 year period 1979–2013, Ann. Glaciol., 56, 18–28, https://doi.org/10.3189/2015AoG69A909, 2015. a
Simmonds, I., Burke, C., and Keay, K.: Arctic climate change as manifest in cyclone behavior, J. Climate, 21, 5777–5796, 2008. a
Sorteberg, A. and Walsh, J. E.: Seasonal cyclone variability at 70 N and its impact on moisture transport into the Arctic, Tellus A, 60, 570–586, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2007.00314.x, 2008. a, b
Sprenger, M. and Wernli, H.: The LAGRANTO Lagrangian analysis tool – version 2.0, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2569–2586, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2569-2015, 2015. a
Steinfeld, D., Boettcher, M., Forbes, R., and Pfahl, S.: The sensitivity of atmospheric blocking to upstream latent heating – numerical experiments, Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 405–426, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-405-2020, 2020. a, b, c, d
Tibaldi, S. and Molteni, F.: On the operational predictability of blocking, Tellus, 42, 343–365, https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1990.t01-2-00003.x, 1990. a, b
Tjernström, M., Shupe, M. D., Brooks, I. M., Persson, P. O. G., Prytherch, J., Salisbury, D. J., Sedlar, J., Achtert, P., Brooks, B. J., Johnston, P. E., Sotiropoulou, G., and Wolfe, D.: Warm-air advection, air mass transformation and fog causes rapid ice melt, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 5594–5602, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064373, 2015.
a
Trigo, R., Trigo, I., DaCamara, C., and Osborn, T.: Climate impact of the European winter blocking episodes from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalyses, Clim. Dynam., 23, 17–28, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-004-0410-4, 2004. a
Tyrlis, E. and Hoskins, B.: Aspects of a Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking climatology, J. Atmos. Sci., 65, 1638–1652, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JAS2337.1, 2008. a
Tyrlis, E., Manzini, E., Bader, J., Ukita, J., Nakamura, H., and Matei, D.: Ural blocking driving extreme Arctic sea ice loss, cold Eurasia, and stratospheric vortex weakening in autumn and early winter 2016–2017, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 11313–11329, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD031085, 2019. a, b
Uotila, P., Pezza, A. B., Cassano, J. J., Keay, K., and Lynch, A. H.: A comparison of low pressure system statistics derived from a high-resolution NWP output and three reanalysis products over the Southern Ocean, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 114, D17105, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD011583, 2009. a
Wang, M., Zhang, Y., and Lu, J.: The evolution dynamical processes of Ural
blocking through the lens of local finite-amplitude wave activity budget
analysis, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2020GL091727, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091727,
2021. a, b, c, d
Wernli, H. and Papritz, L.: Role of polar anticyclones and mid-latitude cyclones for Arctic summertime sea-ice melting, Nat. Geosci., 11, 108–113, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-017-0041-0, 2018. a, b
Woods, C. and Caballero, R.: The role of moist intrusions in winter Arctic warming and sea ice decline, J. Climate, 29, 4473–4485, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0773.1, 2016. a, b, c
Woods, C., Caballero, R., and Svensson, G.: Large-scale circulation associated with moisture intrusions into the Arctic during winter, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 4717–4721, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50912, 2013. a, b, c, d
Woollings, T., Barriopedro, D., Methven, J., Son, S.-W., Martius, O., Harvey, B., Sillmann, J., Lupo, A. R., and Seneviratne, S.: Blocking and its response to climate change, Curr. Clim. Change Rep., 4, 287–300, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-018-0108-z, 2018. a, b
Zschenderlein, P., Fink, A. H., Pfahl, S., and Wernli, H.: Processes determining heat waves across different European climates, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 145, 2973–2989, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3599, 2019. a
Short summary
This study uses reanalysis data to investigate the role of atmospheric blocking, prevailing high-pressure systems and mid-latitude cyclones in driving high-Arctic wintertime warm extreme events. These events are mainly preceded by Ural and Scandinavian blocks, which are shown to be significantly influenced and amplified by cyclones in the North Atlantic. It also highlights processes that need to be well captured in climate models for improving their representation of Arctic wintertime climate.
This study uses reanalysis data to investigate the role of atmospheric blocking, prevailing...
