Articles | Volume 4, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1019-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1019-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Examining the dynamics of a Borneo vortex using a balance approximation tool
Sam Hardy
Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
John Methven
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Juliane Schwendike
Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
Ben Harvey
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Mike Cullen
Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom
retired
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4757, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4757, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
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We studied whether high-resolution weather models that simulate thunderstorm clouds directly, rather than estimating their effects, improve forecasts of hazardous Mediterranean storms. Unlike more typical Mediterranean storms, tropical-cyclone-like medicanes became much stronger in the high-resolution simulations. However, the results also depended on how physical processes were represented, showing that more accurate forecasts require both better model design and higher resolution.
Reinhard K. H. Schiemann, Grenville Lister, Rosalyn Hatcher, Dan Hodson, Bryan Lawrence, Len Shaffrey, Jeff Cole, Andrea Dittus, Jenny Mecking, Jon Robson, Simon Wilson, Yevgeny Aksenov, Adam T. Blaker, Ben Harvey, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Annette Osprey, Stephanie Rynders, Sharar Ahmadi, Jake Aylmer, Laura Baker, David Case, Emanuele Silvio Gentile, Steve George, Kevin Hodges, Eliza Karlowska, Charlotte Lang, Hua Lu, Niamh O'Callaghan, Weronika Osmolska, Scott Osprey, Tony Phillips, David Schröder, Robin Smith, Andrew G. Turner, Steve Woolnough, Martin Andrews, Andrew Coward, Steven Hardiman, James Harle, John W. Rostron, David M. H. Sexton, Bablu Sinha, Jonny Williams, and Chris Wilson
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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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This paper presents a new large ensemble of climate model simulations: The CANARI HadGEM3 Large Ensemble (CANARI LE). The CANARI LE has a comparatively high resolution, provides sub-daily output on atmospheric pressure levels, and boundary conditions for driving regional model simulations. The CANARI LE is thus a community resource that lends itself for the study of physical coupled climate processes, weather systems, and impacts in a changing climate.
Yvonne Anderson, Amanda C. Maycock, Juliane Schwendike, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Simon A. Josey, and Doug M. Smith
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This study assessed how well climate models represent relationships between the North Atlantic ocean and atmosphere in autumn and winter. While models simulate observed relationships in autumn and winter, they fail to capture them in the transition between seasons. The results suggest the link between autumn sea surface temperatures and the winter atmosphere is driven mainly by atmospheric rather than ocean processes, highlighting important model biases that may limit seasonal forecast skill.
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4273, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4273, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
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Storm Daniel led to severe flooding in Greece and Bulgaria, followed by a catastrophic flood in Derna, Libya. We establish that the event was difficult to predict because small errors in the track of Hurricane Franklin over the Atlantic several days earlier grew into large differences in forecasts over Europe. This study highlights the need for improved operational global weather forecasts and raises awareness of the early warning signs that can lead to high-impact weather.
Stella Bourdin, Kevin Hodges, Yushan Han, Leo Saffin, Alexander Baker, John Methven, and Pier Luigi Vidale
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-403, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-403, 2026
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This paper describes a new dataset for the study of historical tropical cyclones. RABTracks is a global dataset that combines official tropical cyclone records with multiple weather reanalyses and tracking methods from 1940 to today. It extends cyclone tracks before formation and after dissipation, adding information on intensity, size, structure, and transition to extratropical storms. The dataset is designed to support improved cyclone risk analysis.
Rhiannon Biddiscombe, Maarten Ambaum, and Ben Harvey
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3043, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3043, 2026
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The strength of the North Atlantic storm track, a region where cyclones develop and propagate, is determined by the north to south temperature gradient across the storm track. The usual measure of this strength is the Eady growth rate, which encodes relevant information about the structure of wind and temperature. In this manuscript we show that this rather complex measure can be reduced to a much simplified expression while maintaining its accuracy.
Farrell Morgan, Ben Harvey, Kevin Hodges, and Oscar Martínez-Alvarado
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-289, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-289, 2026
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The socio-economic risk represented by mid-latitude cyclones in Europe is changing in a warming climate, but these changes are not uniform across all cyclones. Here we investigate climate change effects on contrasting historical cyclones that impacted the UK. We show that the changes in likelihood, intensity and causes do depend on each cyclone’s characteristics. This highlights that accounting for cyclone-specific responses is critical for assessing impacts and developing adaptation strategies.
Suzanne L. Gray, Ambrogio Volonté, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, and Ben J. Harvey
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1523–1544, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1523-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1523-2024, 2024
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Sting jets occur in some of the most damaging cyclones impacting Europe. We present the first climatology of sting-jet cyclones over the major ocean basins. Cyclones with sting-jet precursors occur over the North Atlantic, North Pacific, and Southern Oceans, with implications for wind warnings. Precursor cyclones have distinct characteristics, even in reanalyses that are too coarse to fully resolve sting jets, evidencing the climatological consequences of strong diabatic cloud processes.
Hannah L. Croad, John Methven, Ben Harvey, Sarah P. E. Keeley, and Ambrogio Volonté
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 617–638, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-617-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-617-2023, 2023
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The interaction between Arctic cyclones and the sea ice surface in summer is investigated by analysing the friction and sensible heat flux processes acting in two cyclones with contrasting evolution. The major finding is that the effects of friction on cyclone strength are dependent on a particular feature of cyclone structure: whether they have a warm or cold core during growth. Friction leads to cooling within both cyclone types in the lower atmosphere, which may contribute to their longevity.
William Stanley Torgerson, Juliane Schwendike, Andrew Ross, and Chris Short
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1272, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1272, 2023
Preprint archived
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Two types of fluctuations were studied in Hurricane Irma (2017) using model simulations. The first type of fluctuation, the eyewall replacement cycle, has a Hurricane’s eyewall replaced by a second outer eyewall that develops further out. The other type of fluctuation has no replacement of the eyewall but a disruption to its structure instead.
William Torgerson, Juliane Schwendike, Andrew Ross, and Chris J. Short
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 331–359, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-331-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-331-2023, 2023
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We investigated intensity fluctuations that occurred during the rapid intensification of Hurricane Irma (2017) to understand their effects on the storm structure. Using high-resolution model simulations, we found that the fluctuations were caused by local regions of strong ascent just outside the eyewall that disrupted the storm, leading to a larger and more symmetrical storm eye. This alters the location and intensity of the strongest winds in the storm and hence the storm's impact.
Suzanne L. Gray, Kevin I. Hodges, Jonathan L. Vautrey, and John Methven
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1303–1324, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1303-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1303-2021, 2021
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This research demonstrates, using feature identification and tracking, that anticlockwise rotating vortices at about 7 km altitude called tropopause polar vortices frequently interact with storms developing in the Arctic region, affecting their structure and where they occur. This interaction has implications for the predictability of Arctic weather, given the long lifetime but a relatively small spatial scale of these vortices compared with the density of the polar observation network.
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Short summary
We examine a Borneo vortex case using computer simulations and satellite observations. The vortex is identified with high humidity through the atmosphere and has heaviest rainfall on its northern flank. Simulations represent circulation and rainfall accumulation well. The low-level Borneo vortex is coupled with a higher-level wave, which moves westwards along a layer with a sharp vertical gradient in moisture. Vortex growth occurs through mechanisms usually considered outside the tropics.
We examine a Borneo vortex case using computer simulations and satellite observations. The...