Articles | Volume 4, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-427-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-427-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
12 May 2023
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 12 May 2023
| 12 May 2023
What distinguishes 100-year precipitation extremes over central European river catchments from more moderate extreme events?
Florian Ruff
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Freie Universität Berlin, Institute of Meteorology, Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6–10, 12165 Berlin, Germany
Stephan Pfahl
Freie Universität Berlin, Institute of Meteorology, Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6–10, 12165 Berlin, Germany
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High-impact river floods are often caused by extreme precipitation. Flood protection relies on reliable estimates of the return values. Observational time series are too short for a precise calculation. Here, 100-year return values of daily precipitation are estimated on a global grid based on a large set of model-generated precipitation events from ensemble weather prediction. The statistical uncertainties in the return values can be substantially reduced compared to observational estimates.
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Lisa-Ann Kautz, Olivia Martius, Stephan Pfahl, Joaquim G. Pinto, Alexandre M. Ramos, Pedro M. Sousa, and Tim Woollings
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Atmospheric blocking is associated with stationary, self-sustaining and long-lasting high-pressure systems. They can cause or at least influence surface weather extremes, such as heat waves, cold spells, heavy precipitation events, droughts or wind extremes. The location of the blocking determines where and what type of extreme event will occur. These relationships are also important for weather prediction and may change due to global warming.
Fabienne Dahinden, Franziska Aemisegger, Heini Wernli, Matthias Schneider, Christopher J. Diekmann, Benjamin Ertl, Peter Knippertz, Martin Werner, and Stephan Pfahl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16319–16347, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16319-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16319-2021, 2021
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We use high-resolution numerical isotope modelling and Lagrangian backward trajectories to identify moisture transport pathways and governing physical and dynamical processes that affect the free-tropospheric humidity and isotopic variability over the eastern subtropical North Atlantic. Furthermore, we conduct a thorough isotope modelling validation with aircraft and remote-sensing observations of water vapour isotopes.
Zhihong Zhuo, Ingo Kirchner, Stephan Pfahl, and Ulrich Cubasch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13425–13442, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13425-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13425-2021, 2021
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The impact of volcanic eruptions varies with eruption season and latitude. This study simulated eruptions at different latitudes and in different seasons with a fully coupled climate model. The climate impacts of northern and southern hemispheric eruptions are reversed but are insensitive to eruption season. Results suggest that the regional climate impacts are due to the dynamical response of the climate system to radiative effects of volcanic aerosols and the subsequent regional feedbacks.
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Executive editor
Understanding the specific dynamical processes leading to extreme floods is an important but challenging task. Ruff and Pfahl used an innovative approach that allowed them to go beyond single case studies. They used operational ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF during the period 2003-2019 and focused on five major river catchments in Central Europe. Comparing extreme events (with a return period of 100 years) with more moderate events revealed important differences between the catchments. For some catchments the main factors that distinguish 100-year events were the intensity of the upper-level cutoff and surface cyclone, whereas in other catchments the main factor was an increased low-tropospheric moisture supply. The original results clearly illustrate that regional variability is substantial and no single atmospheric process can be claimed responsible for the distinction between extreme and moderate flood events.
Understanding the specific dynamical processes leading to extreme floods is an important but...
Short summary
In this study, we analyse the generic atmospheric processes of very extreme, 100-year precipitation events in large central European river catchments and the corresponding differences to less extreme events, based on a large time series (~1200 years) of simulated but realistic daily precipitation events from the ECMWF. Depending on the catchment, either dynamical mechanisms or thermodynamic conditions or a combination of both distinguish 100-year events from less extreme precipitation events.
In this study, we analyse the generic atmospheric processes of very extreme, 100-year...
