Articles | Volume 4, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-943-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-943-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
06 Nov 2023
Research article |
| 06 Nov 2023
| 06 Nov 2023
Cold wintertime air masses over Europe: where do they come from and how do they form?
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Lukas Papritz
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Tuomas Naakka
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Timo Vihma
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Related authors
Tiina Nygård, Michael Tjernström, and Tuomas Naakka
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1263–1282, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1263-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1263-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Temperature and humidity profiles in the Arctic atmosphere in winter are affected by both the large-scale dynamics and the local processes, such as radiation, cloud formation and turbulence. The results show that the influence of different large-scale flows on temperature and humidity profiles must be viewed as a progressing set of processes. Within the Arctic, there are notable regional differences in how large-scale flows affect the temperature and specific humidity profiles.
Manu Anna Thomas, Abhay Devasthale, and Tiina Nygård
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16593–16608, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16593-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16593-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of transported pollutants and their spatial distribution in the Arctic are governed by the local atmospheric circulation or weather states. Therefore, we investigated eight different atmospheric circulation types observed during the spring season in the Arctic. Using satellite and reanalysis datasets, this study provides a comprehensive assessment of the typical circulation patterns that can lead to enhanced or reduced pollution concentrations in the different sectors of the Arctic.
Tuomas Naakka, Daniel Köhler, Kalle Nordling, Petri Räisänen, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Risto Makkonen, Joonas Merikanto, Bjørn H. Samset, Victoria A. Sinclair, Jennie L. Thomas, and Annica M. L. Ekman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 8127–8145, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8127-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8127-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The effects of warmer sea surface temperatures and decreasing sea ice cover on polar climates have been studied using four climate models with identical prescribed changes in sea surface temperatures and sea ice cover. The models predict similar changes in air temperature and precipitation in the polar regions in a warmer climate with less sea ice. However, the models disagree on how the atmospheric circulation, i.e. the large-scale winds, will change with warmer temperatures and less sea ice.
Elena Shevnina, Timo Vihma, Miguel Potes, and Tuomas Naakka
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1964, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1964, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
Short summary
Short summary
The study first estimated the summertime evaporation over lakes located in coastal Antarctica with direct (eddy-covariance) measurements collected during two austral summers (December–January) in 2017–2018 and 2019–2020. The lake evaporation was on average 1.6 mm d-1 in the ice break-up period, and it doubled in the ice free period. The bulk aerodynamic method with a site-specific transfer coefficient of moisture well reproduced the observed day-to-day variations in evaporation over lakes.
Daniel Köhler, Petri Räisänen, Tuomas Naakka, Kalle Nordling, and Victoria A. Sinclair
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 669–694, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-669-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-669-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We study the impacts of globally increasing sea surface temperatures and sea ice loss on the atmosphere in wintertime. In future climates, the jet stream shifts southward over the North Atlantic and extends further over Europe. Increasing sea surface temperatures drives these changes. The region of high activity of low-pressure systems is projected to move east towards Europe. Future increasing sea surface temperatures and sea ice loss contribute with similar magnitude to the eastward shift.
Katharina Hartmuth, Heini Wernli, and Lukas Papritz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 505–520, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-505-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-505-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we use large-ensemble climate model simulations to analyze extreme winters in the Barents Sea in a changing climate. We find that variability in both atmospheric processes and sea ice conditions determines the formation of such seasons in the present-day climate. The reduction in sea ice variability results in a decreasing importance of surface boundary conditions in a warmer climate, while the robust link shown for surface weather systems persists.
Rikke Stoffels, Imme Benedict, Lukas Papritz, Frank Selten, and Chris Weijenborg
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1752, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1752, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Summertime North Atlantic storms bring heavy rainfall, especially near their centers and along their fronts. By tracking precipitating air parcels back in time we find that the moisture comes from areas of strong ocean evaporation, with hotspots in the Gulf Stream region. We also find that sometimes evaporation in a previous storm can contribute to rainfall in the next. Unlike in winter, summer storms also draw moisture from land, and their properties are partly shaped by former tropical storms.
Yubing Cheng, Bin Cheng, Roberta Pirazzini, Amy R. Macfarlane, Timo Vihma, Wolfgang Dorn, Ruzica Dadic, Martin Schneebeli, Stefanie Arndt, and Annette Rinke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1164, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1164, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We study snow density from the MOSAiC expedition. Several snow density schemes were tested and compared with observation. A thermodynamic ice model was employed to assess the impact of snow density and precipitation on the thermal regime of sea ice. The parameterized mean snow densities are consistent with observations. Increased snow density reduces snow and ice temperatures, promoting ice growth, while increased precipitation leads to warmer snow and ice temperatures and reduced ice thickness.
Caroline Leck, Jost Heintzenberg, Tiina Nygård, and Tuomas Naakka
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-695, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-695, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Five summer cruises of the Swedish icebreaker Oden in the inner Arctic in 1990, 1996, 2001, 2008, and 2018 provided a unique dataset on the seasonal distribution of atmospheric aerosol. Coupling these data with the seasonal sea ice distribution strongly indicated a regional biogenic aerosol source during late summer and early autumn freeze-up conditions. Given the expected further warming of the Arctic, we hypothesize an increase in biogenic aerosol in late summer and autumn.
Tereza Uhlíková, Timo Vihma, Alexey Yu Karpechko, and Petteri Uotila
The Cryosphere, 19, 1031–1046, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1031-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1031-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
To better understand the local, regional, and global impacts of the recent rapid sea-ice decline in the Arctic, one of the key issues is to quantify the effects of sea-ice concentration on the surface radiative fluxes. We analyse these effects utilising four data sets called atmospheric reanalyses, and we evaluate uncertainties in these effects arising from inter-reanalysis differences in the sensitivity of the surface radiative fluxes to sea-ice concentration.
Marc Federer, Lukas Papritz, Michael Sprenger, and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 211–230, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-211-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-211-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Although extratropical cyclones in the North Atlantic are among the most impactful midlatitude weather systems, their intensification is not entirely understood. Here, we explore how individual cyclones convert available potential energy (APE) into kinetic energy and relate these conversions to the synoptic development of the cyclones. By combining potential vorticity thinking with a local APE framework, we offer a novel perspective on established concepts in dynamic meteorology.
Manfred Wendisch, Susanne Crewell, André Ehrlich, Andreas Herber, Benjamin Kirbus, Christof Lüpkes, Mario Mech, Steven J. Abel, Elisa F. Akansu, Felix Ament, Clémantyne Aubry, Sebastian Becker, Stephan Borrmann, Heiko Bozem, Marlen Brückner, Hans-Christian Clemen, Sandro Dahlke, Georgios Dekoutsidis, Julien Delanoë, Elena De La Torre Castro, Henning Dorff, Regis Dupuy, Oliver Eppers, Florian Ewald, Geet George, Irina V. Gorodetskaya, Sarah Grawe, Silke Groß, Jörg Hartmann, Silvia Henning, Lutz Hirsch, Evelyn Jäkel, Philipp Joppe, Olivier Jourdan, Zsofia Jurányi, Michail Karalis, Mona Kellermann, Marcus Klingebiel, Michael Lonardi, Johannes Lucke, Anna E. Luebke, Maximilian Maahn, Nina Maherndl, Marion Maturilli, Bernhard Mayer, Johanna Mayer, Stephan Mertes, Janosch Michaelis, Michel Michalkov, Guillaume Mioche, Manuel Moser, Hanno Müller, Roel Neggers, Davide Ori, Daria Paul, Fiona M. Paulus, Christian Pilz, Felix Pithan, Mira Pöhlker, Veronika Pörtge, Maximilian Ringel, Nils Risse, Gregory C. Roberts, Sophie Rosenburg, Johannes Röttenbacher, Janna Rückert, Michael Schäfer, Jonas Schaefer, Vera Schemann, Imke Schirmacher, Jörg Schmidt, Sebastian Schmidt, Johannes Schneider, Sabrina Schnitt, Anja Schwarz, Holger Siebert, Harald Sodemann, Tim Sperzel, Gunnar Spreen, Bjorn Stevens, Frank Stratmann, Gunilla Svensson, Christian Tatzelt, Thomas Tuch, Timo Vihma, Christiane Voigt, Lea Volkmer, Andreas Walbröl, Anna Weber, Birgit Wehner, Bruno Wetzel, Martin Wirth, and Tobias Zinner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8865–8892, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8865-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8865-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the globe. Warm-air intrusions (WAIs) into the Arctic may play an important role in explaining this phenomenon. Cold-air outbreaks (CAOs) out of the Arctic may link the Arctic climate changes to mid-latitude weather. In our article, we describe how to observe air mass transformations during CAOs and WAIs using three research aircraft instrumented with state-of-the-art remote-sensing and in situ measurement devices.
Di Chen, Qizhen Sun, and Timo Vihma
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2359, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2359, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
We investigates the variations and trends in Arctic sea ice during summer and autumn, focusing on the impacts of sea surface temperature (SST) and surface air temperature (SAT). Both SST and SAT significantly influence Arctic sea ice concentration. SST affects both interannual variations and decadal trends, while SAT primarily influences interannual variations. Additionally, SAT's impact on sea ice concentration leads by seven months, due to a stronger warming trend in winter than in summer.
Lukas Jansing, Lukas Papritz, and Michael Sprenger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 463–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-463-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-463-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using an innovative approach, the descent of foehn is diagnosed from a Lagrangian perspective based on 15 kilometer-scale simulations combined with online trajectories. The descent is confined to distinct hotspots in the immediate lee of local mountain peaks and chains. Two detailed case studies reveal a varying wave regime to be associated with the descent. Furthermore, additional controlling factors, such as the diurnal cycle, likewise influence the descent activity.
Tereza Uhlíková, Timo Vihma, Alexey Yu Karpechko, and Petteri Uotila
The Cryosphere, 18, 957–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-957-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-957-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A prerequisite for understanding the local, regional, and hemispherical impacts of Arctic sea-ice decline on the atmosphere is to quantify the effects of sea-ice concentration (SIC) on the sensible and latent heat fluxes in the Arctic. We analyse these effects utilising four data sets called atmospheric reanalyses, and we evaluate uncertainties in these effects arising from inter-reanalysis differences in SIC and in the sensitivity of the latent and sensible heat fluxes to SIC.
Belinda Hotz, Lukas Papritz, and Matthias Röthlisberger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 323–343, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-323-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-323-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Analysing the vertical structure of temperature anomalies of recent record-breaking heatwaves reveals a complex four-dimensional interplay of anticyclone–heatwave interactions, with vertically strongly varying advective, adiabatic, and diabatic contributions to the respective temperature anomalies. The heatwaves featured bottom-heavy positive temperature anomalies, extending throughout the troposphere.
Marta Wenta, Christian M. Grams, Lukas Papritz, and Marc Federer
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 181–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-181-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-181-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study links air–sea interactions over the Gulf Stream to an atmospheric block in February 2019. We found that over 23 % of air masses that were lifted into the block by cyclones interacted with the Gulf Stream. As cyclones pass over the Gulf Stream, they cause intense surface evaporation events, preconditioning the environment for the development of cyclones. This implies that air–sea interactions over the Gulf Stream affect the large-scale dynamics in the North Atlantic–European region.
Lejiang Yu, Shiyuan Zhong, Timo Vihma, Cuijuan Sui, and Bo Sun
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2436, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2436, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
In contrary to the current understanding, there can be a strong connection between ENSO and the South Atlantic Subtropical Dipole (SASD). It is highly probable that the robust inverse correlation between ENSO and SASD will persist in the future. The ENSO-SASD correlation exhibits substantial multi-decadal variability over the course of a century. The change in the ENSO-SASD relation can be linked to changes in ENSO regime and convective activities over the central South Pacific Ocean.
Lejiang Yu, Shiyuan Zhong, Timo Vihma, Cuijuan Sui, and Bo Sun
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 345–353, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-345-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-345-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Previous studies have noted a significant relationship between the Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole and the South Atlantic Ocean Dipole indices, but little is known about the stability of their relationship. We found a significant positive correlation between the two indices prior to the year 2000 but an insignificant correlation afterwards.
Lukas Jansing, Lukas Papritz, Bruno Dürr, Daniel Gerstgrasser, and Michael Sprenger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1113–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1113-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1113-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a 5-year climatology of three main foehn types and three deep-foehn subtypes. The main types differ in their large-scale and Alpine-scale weather conditions and the subtypes in terms of the amount and extent of precipitation on the Alpine south side. The different types of foehn are found to strongly affect the local meteorological conditions at Altdorf. The study concludes by setting the new classification into a historic context.
Elena Shevnina, Miguel Potes, Timo Vihma, Tuomas Naakka, Pankaj Ramji Dhote, and Praveen Kumar Thakur
The Cryosphere, 16, 3101–3121, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3101-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3101-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The evaporation over an ice-free glacial lake was measured in January 2018, and the uncertainties inherent to five indirect methods were quantified. Results show that in summer up to 5 mm of water evaporated daily from the surface of the lake located in Antarctica. The indirect methods underestimated the evaporation over the lake's surface by up to 72 %. The results are important for estimating the evaporation over polar regions where a growing number of glacial lakes have recently been evident.
Sebastian Schemm, Lukas Papritz, and Gwendal Rivière
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 601–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-601-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-601-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Much of the change in our daily weather patterns is due to the development and intensification of extratropical cyclones. The response of these systems to climate change is an important topic of ongoing research. This study is the first to reproduce the changes in the North Atlantic circulation and extratropical cyclone characteristics found in fully coupled Earth system models under high-CO2 scenarios, but in an idealized, reduced-complexity simulation with uniform warming.
Janosch Michaelis, Amelie U. Schmitt, Christof Lüpkes, Jörg Hartmann, Gerit Birnbaum, and Timo Vihma
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1621–1637, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1621-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1621-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A major goal of the Springtime Atmospheric Boundary Layer Experiment (STABLE) aircraft campaign was to observe atmospheric conditions during marine cold-air outbreaks (MCAOs) originating from the sea-ice-covered Arctic ocean. Quality-controlled measurements of several meteorological variables collected during 15 vertical aircraft profiles and by 22 dropsondes are presented. The comprehensive data set may be used for validating model results to improve the understanding of future trends in MCAOs.
Hanna K. Lappalainen, Tuukka Petäjä, Timo Vihma, Jouni Räisänen, Alexander Baklanov, Sergey Chalov, Igor Esau, Ekaterina Ezhova, Matti Leppäranta, Dmitry Pozdnyakov, Jukka Pumpanen, Meinrat O. Andreae, Mikhail Arshinov, Eija Asmi, Jianhui Bai, Igor Bashmachnikov, Boris Belan, Federico Bianchi, Boris Biskaborn, Michael Boy, Jaana Bäck, Bin Cheng, Natalia Chubarova, Jonathan Duplissy, Egor Dyukarev, Konstantinos Eleftheriadis, Martin Forsius, Martin Heimann, Sirkku Juhola, Vladimir Konovalov, Igor Konovalov, Pavel Konstantinov, Kajar Köster, Elena Lapshina, Anna Lintunen, Alexander Mahura, Risto Makkonen, Svetlana Malkhazova, Ivan Mammarella, Stefano Mammola, Stephany Buenrostro Mazon, Outi Meinander, Eugene Mikhailov, Victoria Miles, Stanislav Myslenkov, Dmitry Orlov, Jean-Daniel Paris, Roberta Pirazzini, Olga Popovicheva, Jouni Pulliainen, Kimmo Rautiainen, Torsten Sachs, Vladimir Shevchenko, Andrey Skorokhod, Andreas Stohl, Elli Suhonen, Erik S. Thomson, Marina Tsidilina, Veli-Pekka Tynkkynen, Petteri Uotila, Aki Virkkula, Nadezhda Voropay, Tobias Wolf, Sayaka Yasunaka, Jiahua Zhang, Yubao Qiu, Aijun Ding, Huadong Guo, Valery Bondur, Nikolay Kasimov, Sergej Zilitinkevich, Veli-Matti Kerminen, and Markku Kulmala
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4413–4469, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4413-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We summarize results during the last 5 years in the northern Eurasian region, especially from Russia, and introduce recent observations of the air quality in the urban environments in China. Although the scientific knowledge in these regions has increased, there are still gaps in our understanding of large-scale climate–Earth surface interactions and feedbacks. This arises from limitations in research infrastructures and integrative data analyses, hindering a comprehensive system analysis.
Katharina Hartmuth, Maxi Boettcher, Heini Wernli, and Lukas Papritz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 89–111, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-89-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-89-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we introduce a novel method to objectively define and identify extreme Arctic seasons based on different surface variables. We find that such seasons are resulting from various combinations of unusual seasonal conditions. The occurrence or absence of different atmospheric processes strongly affects the character of extreme Arctic seasons. Further, changes in sea ice and sea surface temperature can strongly influence the formation of such a season in distinct regions.
Sonja Murto, Rodrigo Caballero, Gunilla Svensson, and Lukas Papritz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 21–44, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-21-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-21-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses reanalysis data to investigate the role of atmospheric blocking, prevailing high-pressure systems and mid-latitude cyclones in driving high-Arctic wintertime warm extreme events. These events are mainly preceded by Ural and Scandinavian blocks, which are shown to be significantly influenced and amplified by cyclones in the North Atlantic. It also highlights processes that need to be well captured in climate models for improving their representation of Arctic wintertime climate.
Lukas Papritz, David Hauswirth, and Katharina Hartmuth
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Water vapor profoundly impacts the Arctic, for example by contributing to sea ice melt. A substantial portion of water vapor in the Arctic originates at mid-latitudes and is transported poleward in a few episodic and intense events. This transport is accomplished by low- and high-pressure systems occurring in specific regions or following particular tracks. Here, we explore how the type of weather system impacts where the water vapor is coming from and how it is transported poleward.
Tiina Nygård, Michael Tjernström, and Tuomas Naakka
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1263–1282, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1263-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1263-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Temperature and humidity profiles in the Arctic atmosphere in winter are affected by both the large-scale dynamics and the local processes, such as radiation, cloud formation and turbulence. The results show that the influence of different large-scale flows on temperature and humidity profiles must be viewed as a progressing set of processes. Within the Arctic, there are notable regional differences in how large-scale flows affect the temperature and specific humidity profiles.
Manu Anna Thomas, Abhay Devasthale, and Tiina Nygård
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16593–16608, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16593-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16593-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of transported pollutants and their spatial distribution in the Arctic are governed by the local atmospheric circulation or weather states. Therefore, we investigated eight different atmospheric circulation types observed during the spring season in the Arctic. Using satellite and reanalysis datasets, this study provides a comprehensive assessment of the typical circulation patterns that can lead to enhanced or reduced pollution concentrations in the different sectors of the Arctic.
Bin Cheng, Yubing Cheng, Timo Vihma, Anna Kontu, Fei Zheng, Juha Lemmetyinen, Yubao Qiu, and Jouni Pulliainen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 3967–3978, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3967-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3967-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change strongly impacts the Arctic, with clear signs of higher air temperature and more precipitation. A sustainable observation programme has been carried out in Lake Orajärvi in Sodankylä, Finland. The high-quality air–snow–ice–water temperature profiles have been measured every winter since 2009. The data can be used to investigate the lake ice surface heat balance and the role of snow in lake ice mass balance and parameterization of snow-to-ice transformation in snow/ice models.
Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Iuliia Polkova, Lukas Papritz, Paolo Ruggieri, Martin P. King, Panos J. Athanasiadis, Johanna Baehr, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 541–553, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-541-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-541-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the stratospheric influence on marine cold air outbreaks (MCAOs) in the North Atlantic using ERA-Interim reanalysis data. MCAOs are associated with severe Arctic weather, such as polar lows and strong surface winds. Sudden stratospheric events are found to be associated with more frequent MCAOs in the Barents and the Norwegian seas, affected by the anomalous circulation over Greenland and Scandinavia. Identification of MCAO precursors is crucial for improved long-range prediction.
Mauro Hermann, Lukas Papritz, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 497–518, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-497-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-497-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We find, by tracing backward in time, that air masses causing extensive melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet originate from further south and lower altitudes than usual. Their exceptional warmth further arises due to ascent and cloud formation, which is special compared to near-surface heat waves in the midlatitudes or the central Arctic. The atmospheric systems and transport pathways identified here are crucial in understanding and simulating the atmospheric control of the ice sheet in the future.
Cited articles
Afargan-Gerstman, H., Polkova, I., Papritz, L., Ruggieri, P., King, M. P., Athanasiadis, P. J., Baehr, J., and Domeisen, D. I. V.: Stratospheric influence on North Atlantic marine cold air outbreaks following sudden stratospheric warming events, Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 541–553, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-541-2020, 2020.
Alexander, L. V., Uotila, P., Nicholls, N., and Lynch, A.: A New Daily Pressure Dataset for Australia and Its Application to the Assessment of Changes in Synoptic Patterns during the Last Century, J. Climate, 23, 1111–1126, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009jcli2972.1, 2010.
Anagnostopoulou, C., Tolika, K., Lazoglou, G., and Maheras, P.: The Exceptionally Cold January of 2017 over the Balkan Peninsula: A Climatological and Synoptic Analysis, Atmosphere, 8, 252, 2017.
Ayarzagüena, B. and Screen, J. A.: Future Arctic sea ice loss reduces severity of cold air outbreaks in midlatitudes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 2801–2809, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068092, 2016.
Barnston, A. G. and Livezey, R. E.: Classification, Seasonality and Persistence of Low-Frequency Atmospheric Circulation Patterns, Mon. Weather Rev., 115, 1083–1126, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1083:csapol>2.0.co;2, 1987.
Bieli, M., Pfahl, S., and Wernli, H.: A Lagrangian investigation of hot and cold temperature extremes in Europe, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 98–108, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2339, 2015.
Blackport, R. and Screen, J. A.: Weakened evidence for mid-latitude impacts of Arctic warming, Nat. Clim. Change, 10, 1065–1066, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00954-y, 2020.
Brunner, L., Schaller, N., Anstey, J., Sillmann, J., and Steiner, A. K.: Dependence of Present and Future European Temperature Extremes on the Location of Atmospheric Blocking, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 6311–6320, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL077837, 2018.
Castro-Díez, Y., Pozo-Vázquez, D., Rodrigo, F. S., and Esteban-Parra, M. J.: NAO and winter temperature variability in southern Europe, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 1-1–1-4, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL014042, 2002.
Cohen, J., Jones, J., Furtado, J. C., and Tziperman, E.: Warm Arctic, Cold Continents: A Common Pattern Related to Arctic Sea Ice Melt, Snow Advance, and Extreme Winter Weather, Oceanography, 26, 150–160, 2013.
C3S: ERA5: Fifth generation of ECMWF atmospheric reanalyses of the global climate, Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Data Store (CDS), https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/home (last access: 1 May 2023), 2017.
Gasparrini, A., Guo, Y., Hashizume, M., Lavigne, E., Zanobetti, A., Schwartz, J., Tobias, A., Tong, S., Rocklöv, J., Forsberg, B., Leone, M., De Sario, M., Bell, M. L., Guo, Y.-L. L., Wu, C.-F., Kan, H., Yi, S.-M., de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M., Saldiva, P. H. N., Honda, Y., Kim, H., and Armstrong, B.: Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study, Lancet, 386, 369–375, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(14)62114-0, 2015.
Gibson, P. B., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E., Uotila, P., Pepler, A. S., and Alexander, L. V.: On the use of self-organizing maps for studying climate extremes, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 122, 3891–3903, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD026256, 2017.
Giorgi, F. and Lionello, P.: Climate change projections for the Mediterranean region, Global Planet. Change, 63, 90–104, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.09.005, 2008.
Hanna, E., Cropper, T. E., Hall, R. J., Cornes, R. C., and Barriendos, M.: Extended North Atlantic Oscillation and Greenland Blocking Indices 1800–2020 from New Meteorological Reanalysis, Atmosphere, 13, 436, 2022.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Biavati, G., Horányi, A., Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Dee, D., Thépaut, J.-N.: ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1940 to present, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47, 2023.
Hewitson, B. C. and Crane, R. G.: Self-organizing maps: applications to synoptic climatology, Clim. Res., 22, 13–26, 2002.
Hurrell, J. W.: Decadal Trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: Regional Temperatures and Precipitation, Science, 269, 676–679, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.269.5224.676, 1995.
Hurrell, J. W., Kushnir, Y., Ottersen, G., and Visbeck, M.: An Overview of the North Atlantic Oscillation, in: The North Atlantic Oscillation: Climatic Significance and Environmental Impact, edited by: Hurrell, J. W., Kushnir, Y., Ottersen, G., and Visbeck, M., AGU, https://doi.org/10.1029/134GM01, 2003.
Kanno, Y., Abdillah, M. R., and Iwasaki, T.: Long-term trend of cold air mass amount below a designated potential temperature in Northern and Southern Hemispheric winters using reanalysis data sets, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 10138–10152, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024635, 2016.
Kautz, L.-A., Martius, O., Pfahl, S., Pinto, J. G., Ramos, A. M., Sousa, P. M., and Woollings, T.: Atmospheric blocking and weather extremes over the Euro-Atlantic sector – a review, Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 305–336, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-305-2022, 2022.
Kohonen, T.: Self-Organizing Maps, Springer-Verlag, 501 pp., ISBN 978-3-642-56927-2, 2001.
Kolstad, E. W. and Bracegirdle, T. J.: Marine cold-air outbreaks in the future: an assessment of IPCC AR4 model results for the Northern Hemisphere, Clim. Dynam., 30, 871–885, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0331-0, 2008.
Koslowski, G. and Loewe, P.: The western Baltic Sea ice seasons in terms of mass-related severity index 1879–1992, Tellus A, 46, 66–74, 1994.
Naakka, T., Nygård, T., Tjernström, M., Vihma, T., Pirazzini, R., and Brooks, I. M.: The Impact of Radiosounding Observations on Numerical Weather Prediction Analyses in the Arctic, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 8527–8535, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl083332, 2019.
NOAA/National Weather Service: NAO index, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml (last access: 1 May 2023), 2023a.
NOAA/National Weather Service: AO index, https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii (last access: 1 May 2023), 2023b.
NOAA/National Weather Service: GBI index, https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/gbi.day.data (last access: 1 May 2023), 2023c.
Nygård, T., Naakka, T., and Vihma, T: Horizontal Moisture Transport Dominates the Regional Moistening Patterns in the Arctic, J. Climate, 33, 6793–6807, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0891.1, 2020.
Overland, J. E., Wang, M., Bond, N. A., Walsh, J. E., Kattsov, V. M., and Chapman, W. L.: Considerations in the Selection of Global Climate Models for Regional Climate Projections: The Arctic as a Case Study*, J. Climate, 24, 1583–1597, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010jcli3462.1, 2011.
Overland, J. E., Ballinger, T. J., Cohen, J., Francis, J. A., Hanna, E., Jaiser, R., Kim, B. M., Kim, S. J., Ukita, J., Vihma, T., Wang, M., and Zhang, X.: How do intermittency and simultaneous processes obfuscate the Arctic influence on midlatitude winter extreme weather events?, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 043002, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abdb5d, 2021.
Papritz, L.: Arctic Lower-Tropospheric Warm and Cold Extremes: Horizontal and Vertical Transport, Diabatic Processes, and Linkage to Synoptic Circulation Features, J. Climate, 33, 993–1016, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-0638.1, 2020.
Papritz, L., Pfahl, S., Sodemann, H., and Wernli, H.: A Climatology of Cold Air Outbreaks and Their Impact on Air–Sea Heat Fluxes in the High-Latitude South Pacific, J. Climate, 28, 342–364, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00482.1, 2015.
Pfahl, S.: Characterising the relationship between weather extremes in Europe and synoptic circulation features, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1461–1475, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1461-2014, 2014.
Rantanen, M., Karpechko, A. Y., Lipponen, A., Nordling, K., Hyvärinen, O., Ruosteenoja, K., Vihma, T., and Laaksonen, A.: The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979, Communications Earth & Environment, 3, 168, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00498-3, 2022.
Röthlisberger, M. and Papritz, L.: A global quantification of the physical processes leading to near-surface cold extremes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2022GL101670, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101670, 2023a.
Röthlisberger, M. and Papritz, L.: Quantifying the physical processes leading to atmospheric hot extremes at a global scale, Nat. Geosci., 16, 210–216, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01126-1, 2023b.
Sillmann, J., Croci-Maspoli, M., Kallache, M., and Katz, R. W.: Extreme Cold Winter Temperatures in Europe under the Influence of North Atlantic Atmospheric Blocking, J. Climate, 24, 5899–5913, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011jcli4075.1, 2011.
Smith, E. T. and Sheridan, S. C.: Where Do Cold Air Outbreaks Occur, and How Have They Changed Over Time?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL086983, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL086983, 2020.
Sousa, P. M., Trigo, R. M., Barriopedro, D., Soares, P. M. M., and Santos, J. A.: European temperature responses to blocking and ridge regional patterns, Clim. Dynam., 50, 457–477, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3620-2, 2018.
Sousa, P. M., Barriopedro, D., García-Herrera, R., Woollings, T., and Trigo, R. M.: A New Combined Detection Algorithm for Blocking and Subtropical Ridges, J. Climate, 34, 7735–7758, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-20-0658.1, 2021.
Sprenger, M. and Wernli, H.: The Lagrangian analysis tool LAGRANTO – version 2.0, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., 8, 1893–1943, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-8-1893-2015, 2015.
Sui, C., Karpechko, A. Y., Vihma, T., Yu, L., and Feng, L.: Influence of the Ural High on Air Temperatures over Eastern Europe and Northern China during Extended Winter, J. Climate, 35, 1309–1325, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-21-0523.1, 2022.
Thomas, C., Voulgarakis, A., Lim, G., Haigh, J., and Nowack, P.: An unsupervised learning approach to identifying blocking events: the case of European summer, Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 581–608, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-581-2021, 2021.
Trigo, R. M., Osborn, T. J., and Corte-Real, J. M.: The North Atlantic Oscillation influence on Europe climate impacts and associated physical mechanisms, Clim. Res., 20, 9–17, 2002.
Trigo, R. M., Trigo, I. F., DaCamara, C. C., and Osborn, T. J.: Climate impact of the European winter blocking episodes from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalyses, Clim. Dynam., 23, 17–28, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-004-0410-4, 2004.
Vavrus, S., Walsh, J. E., Chapman, W. L., and Portis, D.: The behavior of extreme cold air outbreaks under greenhouse warming, Int. J. Climatol., 26, 1133–1147, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1301, 2006.
Vihma, T., Graversen, R., Chen, L., Handorf, D., Skific, N., Francis, J. A., Tyrrell, N., Hall, R., Hanna, E., Uotila, P., Dethloff, K., Karpechko, A. Y., Björnsson, H., and Overland, J. E.: Effects of the tropospheric large-scale circulation on European winter temperatures during the period of amplified Arctic warming, Int. J. Climatol., 40, 509–529, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6225, 2020.
Walsh, J. E., Phillips, A. S., Portis, D. H., and Chapman, W. L.: Extreme Cold Outbreaks in the United States and Europe, 1948–99, J. Climate, 14, 2642–2658, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<2642:ecoitu>2.0.co;2, 2001.
Wheeler, D. D., Harvey, V. L., Atkinson, D. E., Collins, R. L., and Mills, M. J.: A climatology of cold air outbreaks over North America: WACCM and ERA-40 comparison and analysis, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 116, D12107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD015711, 2011.
Yu, L., Zhong, S., Sui, C., and Sun, B.: Revisiting the trend in the occurrences of the “warm Arctic–cold Eurasian continent” temperature pattern, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13753–13770, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13753-2020, 2020.
Short summary
Despite the general warming trend, wintertime cold-air outbreaks in Europe have remained nearly as extreme and as common as decades ago. In this study, we identify six principal cold anomaly types over Europe in 1979–2020. We show the origins of various physical processes and their contributions to the formation of cold wintertime air masses.
Despite the general warming trend, wintertime cold-air outbreaks in Europe have remained nearly...
