Articles | Volume 5, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1269-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1269-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
14 Oct 2024
Research article |
| 14 Oct 2024
| 14 Oct 2024
Spatio-temporal averaging of jets obscures the reinforcement of baroclinicity by latent heating
Henrik Auestad
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
Clemens Spensberger
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Andrea Marcheggiani
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Paulo Ceppi
Department of Physics, Imperial College London, London, UK
Thomas Spengler
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Tim Woollings
Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
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Omer Roi-Cohen, Gaea Hadary, Casey J. Wall, Paulo Ceppi, and Guy Dagan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3075, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3075, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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When humans burn fossil fuels, released particles make clouds more reflective, cooling Earth. This effect is a major uncertainty in climate projections, and recent satellite studies disagree widely on its magnitude. We developed a framework, validated against models and observations, to test which analytical choices are most reliable. Our resulting estimate aligns with major international climate assessments, providing independent observational support for consensus climate projections.
Fumiaki Ogawa, Andrea Marcheggiani, Hisashi Nakamura, and Thomas Spengler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1762, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1762, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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We propose an idealised framework to study how the shape of midlatitude SST fronts controls the atmospheric general circulation. The new SST profile enables separate changes in the geometric properties of extratropical SST fronts, such as strength, width, position, and maximum SST. The response of storm tracks, jets, and the water cycle to changes in frontal parameters are briefly discussed. This approach provides a basis for more targeted studies on the role of SST fronts on the atmosphere.
Aleena M. Jaison, Paulo Ceppi, and Sarah Wilson Kemsley
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2841, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2841, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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We investigate how stratospheric winds influence high clouds using satellite observations and climate models. These winds, known as the quasi-biennial oscillation, alter meteorological conditions in the troposphere such as upper-tropospheric temperature, stability, and humidity, and clouds respond to these changes. Reducing model biases requires improving cloud sensitivity to these factors. This framework could also help assess cloud responses to stratospheric cooling driven by climate change.
Svenya Chripko, Thomas Spengler, Stefanie Semper, and Kjetil Våge
Ocean Sci., 22, 1711–1726, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1711-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1711-2026, 2026
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Using a high-resolution ocean reanalysis, we provide the first quantification of the three-dimensional ocean response to a strong cold air outbreak in the entire Nordic Seas. We show that the effects of the cold air outbreak on the mixed layer are masked by the effects of lateral heat transport in the eastern part of the region. The effects are only visible in the western Nordic Seas (away from sea ice and currents), which impacts water mass transformation in the area.
Paulo Ceppi, Sarah Wilson Kemsley, Hendrik Andersen, Timothy Andrews, Ryan J. Kramer, Peer Nowack, Casey J. Wall, and Mark D. Zelinka
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 4153–4171, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-4153-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-4153-2026, 2026
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Recent decades have seen a marked decrease in global low-level cloud cover, leading to more sunlight heating the Earth. This trend is poorly understood, raising the concern that clouds may amplify global warming more than previously thought. We show that the cloud decrease is mostly caused by human forcing on climate, and that it agrees with previous estimates of how clouds respond to decreasing aerosol pollution, increasing greenhouse gas concentration, and their effects on global temperature.
Hugo Banderier, Tim Woollings, and Olivia Martius
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1045, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1045, 2026
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Recent literature suggests that persistence of the upper-level jet stream could force weather persistence. Yet most studies use metrics for the persistence of the jet that obscure the evolution of complex jet stream structures. In this study, we define a feature-based method for the characterisation of jet stream persistence. We revisit the hypothesis linking jet stream persistence to persistent weather, and explore the potential mechanisms that maintain the jet in place.
Chris Weijenborg and Thomas Spengler
Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 475–488, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-475-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-475-2026, 2026
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The swift succession of storms, referred to as cyclone clustering, is often associated with weather extremes. We introduce a detection scheme for these events and subdivide these into two types. One type is associated with storms that follow each other in space, whereas the other type requires a proximity over time. Cyclone clustering is more frequent during winter and the first type is associated with stronger storms, suggesting that the two types emerge due to different mechanisms.
Paulo Ceppi, Alejandro Bodas-Salcedo, Mark D. Zelinka, Timothy Andrews, Florent Brient, Robin Chadwick, Jonathan M. Gregory, Yen-Ting Hwang, Sarah M. Kang, Jennifer E. Kay, Thorsten Mauritsen, Tomoo Ogura, George Tselioudis, Masahiro Watanabe, Mark J. Webb, and Allison A. Wing
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-398, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-398, 2026
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Clouds constitute a key uncertainty for climate change projections. The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) aims to address this challenge by evaluating and understanding clouds and their impacts on atmospheric circulation, precipitation, and climate sensitivity. The present paper describes the CFMIP experiment protocol for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 7 (CMIP7), and discusses the accompanying science questions and opportunities for progress.
Qidi Yu, Clemens Spensberger, Linus Magnusson, and Thomas Spengler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-257, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-257, 2026
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Forecast biases of wintertime extratropical cyclones are quantified, distinguishing cyclones by their diabatic heating intensity. Forecasts feature a southwest displacement and underestimation in strength for cyclones with strong diabatic heating. For weaker diabatic heating, cyclones mainly feature a bias in strength. Specific biases are also identified for wind, moisture, temperature, and upper-level circulation fields. Our findings help to guide future model improvements.
Richard G. Williams, Philip Goodwin, Paulo Ceppi, Chris D. Jones, and Andrew H. MacDougall
Biogeosciences, 22, 7167–7186, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-7167-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-7167-2025, 2025
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How the climate system responds when carbon emissions cease is an open question: some climate models reveal a slight warming, whereas most models reveal a slight cooling. The temperature response after net zero is connected via a new framework to quantify and compare the opposing thermal and carbon drivers. The climate response after net zero is controlled by how the planet takes up heat and radiates heat back to space, and how the land and ocean sequester carbon from the atmosphere.
Andrea Marcheggiani and Thomas Spengler
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 1479–1489, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1479-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1479-2025, 2025
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Cold air outbreaks, where cold polar air flows over warmer oceans, help restore midlatitude atmospheric temperature gradients near strong ocean currents, supporting storm formation. Using a novel method, we show that moderate outbreaks cover less than 15 % of the Gulf Stream region but explain up to 40 % of near-surface variability. In the North Pacific, they are more extensive and still account for a large share of variability, highlighting their key role in shaping storm tracks.
Philipp Breul, Paulo Ceppi, and Peer Nowack
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 11991–12005, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-11991-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-11991-2025, 2025
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We explore how Pacific low-level clouds influence projections of regional climate change by adjusting a climate model to enhance low-cloud response to surface temperatures. We find significant changes in projected warming patterns and circulation changes under increased CO2 conditions. Our findings are supported by similar relationships across state-of-the-art climate models. These results highlight the importance of accurately representing clouds for predicting regional climate change impacts.
Hugo Banderier, Alexandre Tuel, Tim Woollings, and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 715–739, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-715-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-715-2025, 2025
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The jet stream is the main feature of upper-level flow and drives the weather at the surface. It is stronger and better defined in winter and has mostly been studied in that season. However, it is very important for (extreme) weather in summer. In this work, we improve and use two existing and complementary methods to study the jet stream(s) in the Euro-Atlantic sector, with a focus on summer. We find that our methods can verify each other and agree on interesting signals and trends.
Clemens Spensberger, Kjersti Konstali, and Thomas Spengler
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 431–446, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-431-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-431-2025, 2025
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The transport of moisture from warmer and moister to colder and drier regions mainly occurs in brief and narrow bursts. In the mid-latitudes, such bursts are generally referred to as atmospheric rivers; in the Arctic they are often referred to as warm moist intrusions. We introduce a new definition to identify such bursts which is based primarily on their elongated structure. With this more general definition, we show that bursts in moisture transport occur frequently across all climate zones.
Fumiaki Ogawa and Thomas Spengler
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1031–1042, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1031-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1031-2024, 2024
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The exchange of energy and moisture between the atmosphere and ocean is maximised along strong meridional contrasts in sea surface temperature, such as across the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio. We find that these strong meridional contrasts confine and determine the position of evaporation and precipitation, as well as storm occurrence and intensity. The general intensity of the water cycle and storm activity, however, is determined by the underlying absolute sea surface temperature.
Sarah Wilson Kemsley, Paulo Ceppi, Hendrik Andersen, Jan Cermak, Philip Stier, and Peer Nowack
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8295–8316, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8295-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8295-2024, 2024
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Aiming to inform parameter selection for future observational constraint analyses, we incorporate five candidate meteorological drivers specifically targeting high clouds into a cloud controlling factor framework within a range of spatial domain sizes. We find a discrepancy between optimal domain size for predicting locally and globally aggregated cloud radiative anomalies and identify upper-tropospheric static stability as an important high-cloud controlling factor.
Clemens Spensberger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 659–669, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-659-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-659-2024, 2024
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It is well-established that variations in convection in the tropical Indo-Pacific can influence weather in far-away regions. In this idea, I argue that the main theory used to explain this influence over large distances is incomplete. I propose hypotheses that could lead the way towards a more fundamental explanation and outline a novel approach that could be used to test the hypotheses I raise. The suggested approach might be useful to address also other long-standing questions.
Andrea Marcheggiani and Thomas Spengler
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 927–942, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-927-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-927-2023, 2023
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There is a gap between the theoretical understanding and model representation of moist diabatic effects on the evolution of storm tracks. We seek to bridge this gap by exploring the relationship between diabatic and adiabatic contributions to changes in baroclinicity. We find reversed behaviours in the lower and upper troposphere in the maintenance of baroclinicity. In particular, our study reveals a link between higher moisture availability and upper-tropospheric restoration of baroclinicity.
Christiane Duscha, Juraj Pálenik, Thomas Spengler, and Joachim Reuder
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 5103–5123, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-5103-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-5103-2023, 2023
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We combine observations from two scanning Doppler lidars to obtain new and unique insights into the dynamic processes inherent to atmospheric convection. The approach complements and enhances conventional methods to probe convection and has the potential to substantially deepen our understanding of this complex process, which is crucial to improving our weather and climate models.
Philip Goodwin, Richard Williams, Paulo Ceppi, and B. B. Cael
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2307, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2307, 2023
Preprint archived
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Climate feedbacks are normally evaluated by considering the change over time for Earth's energy balance and surface temperatures in the climate system. However, we only have around 1 degree Celsius of temperature change to utilise. Here, climate feedbacks are instead evaluated from the change in latitude of Earth's energy balance and surface temperatures, where we have around 70 degrees Celsius of temperature change to utilise.
Kristian Strommen, Tim Woollings, Paolo Davini, Paolo Ruggieri, and Isla R. Simpson
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 853–874, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-853-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-853-2023, 2023
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We present evidence which strongly suggests that decadal variations in the intensity of the North Atlantic winter jet stream can be predicted by current forecast models but that decadal variations in its position appear to be unpredictable. It is argued that this skill at predicting jet intensity originates from the slow, predictable variability in sea surface temperatures in the sub-polar North Atlantic.
Stephen Outten, Camille Li, Martin P. King, Lingling Suo, Peter Y. F. Siew, Hoffman Cheung, Richard Davy, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Tore Furevik, Shengping He, Erica Madonna, Stefan Sobolowski, Thomas Spengler, and Tim Woollings
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 95–114, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-95-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-95-2023, 2023
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Strong disagreement exists in the scientific community over the role of Arctic sea ice in shaping wintertime Eurasian cooling. The observed Eurasian cooling can arise naturally without sea-ice loss but is expected to be a rare event. We propose a framework that incorporates sea-ice retreat and natural variability as contributing factors. A helpful analogy is of a dice roll that may result in cooling, warming, or anything in between, with sea-ice loss acting to load the dice in favour of cooling.
Tim Woollings, Camille Li, Marie Drouard, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Karim A. Elmestekawy, Momme Hell, Brian Hoskins, Cheikh Mbengue, Matthew Patterson, and Thomas Spengler
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 61–80, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-61-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-61-2023, 2023
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This paper investigates large-scale atmospheric variability in polar regions, specifically the balance between large-scale turbulence and Rossby wave activity. The polar regions are relatively more dominated by turbulence than lower latitudes, but Rossby waves are found to play a role and can even be triggered from high latitudes under certain conditions. Features such as cyclone lifetimes, high-latitude blocks, and annular modes are discussed from this perspective.
Philipp Breul, Paulo Ceppi, and Theodore G. Shepherd
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 39–47, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-39-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-39-2023, 2023
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Accurately predicting the response of the midlatitude jet stream to climate change is very important, but models show a variety of possible scenarios. Previous work identified a relationship between climatological jet latitude and future jet shift in the southern hemispheric winter. We show that the relationship does not hold in separate sectors and propose that zonal asymmetries are the ultimate cause in the zonal mean. This questions the usefulness of the relationship.
Philipp Breul, Paulo Ceppi, and Theodore G. Shepherd
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 645–658, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-645-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-645-2022, 2022
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Understanding how the mid-latitude jet stream will respond to a changing climate is highly important. Unfortunately, climate models predict a wide variety of possible responses. Theoretical frameworks can link an internal jet variability timescale to its response. However, we show that stratospheric influence approximately doubles the internal timescale, inflating predicted responses. We demonstrate an approach to account for the stratospheric influence and recover correct response predictions.
Clemens Spensberger, Trond Thorsteinsson, and Thomas Spengler
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2711–2729, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2711-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2711-2022, 2022
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In order to understand the atmosphere, we rely on a hierarchy of models ranging from very simple to very complex. Comparing different steps in this hierarchy usually entails comparing different models. Here we combine two such steps that are commonly used in one modelling framework. This makes comparisons both much easier and much more direct.
Lisa-Ann Kautz, Olivia Martius, Stephan Pfahl, Joaquim G. Pinto, Alexandre M. Ramos, Pedro M. Sousa, and Tim Woollings
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 305–336, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-305-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-305-2022, 2022
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Atmospheric blocking is associated with stationary, self-sustaining and long-lasting high-pressure systems. They can cause or at least influence surface weather extremes, such as heat waves, cold spells, heavy precipitation events, droughts or wind extremes. The location of the blocking determines where and what type of extreme event will occur. These relationships are also important for weather prediction and may change due to global warming.
Clio Michel, Erica Madonna, Clemens Spensberger, Camille Li, and Stephen Outten
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1131–1148, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1131-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1131-2021, 2021
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Climate models still struggle to correctly represent blocking frequency over the North Atlantic–European domain. This study makes use of five large ensembles of climate simulations and the ERA-Interim reanalyses to investigate the Greenland blocking frequency and one of its drivers, namely cyclonic Rossby wave breaking. We particularly try to understand the discrepancies between two specific models, out of the five, that behave differently.
Leonidas Tsopouridis, Thomas Spengler, and Clemens Spensberger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 953–970, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-953-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-953-2021, 2021
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Comparing simulations with realistic and smoothed SSTs, we find that the intensification of individual cyclones in the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio regions is only marginally affected by reducing the SST gradient. In contrast, we observe a reduced cyclone activity and a shift in storm tracks. Considering differences of the variables occurring within/outside of a radius of any cyclone, we find cyclones to play only a secondary role in explaining the mean states differences among the SST experiments.
Kristine Flacké Haualand and Thomas Spengler
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 695–712, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-695-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-695-2021, 2021
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Given the recent focus on the influence of upper tropospheric structure in wind and temperature on midlatitude weather, we use an idealised model to investigate how structural modifications impact cyclone development. We find that cyclone intensification is less sensitive to these modifications than to changes in the amount of cloud condensation, suggesting that an accurate representation of the upper-level troposphere is less important for midlatitude weather than previously anticipated.
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Short summary
Latent heating due to condensation can influence atmospheric circulation by strengthening or weakening horizontal temperature contrasts. Strong temperature contrasts intensify storms and imply the existence of strong upper tropospheric winds called jets. It remains unclear whether latent heating preferentially reinforces or abates the existing jet. We show that this disagreement is attributable to how the jet is defined, confirming that latent heating reinforces the jet.
Latent heating due to condensation can influence atmospheric circulation by strengthening or...
