Articles | Volume 5, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1561-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1561-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
20 Dec 2024
Research article |
| 20 Dec 2024
| 20 Dec 2024
Causal relationships and predictability of the summer East Atlantic teleconnection
Julianna Carvalho-Oliveira
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Oceanography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Institute of Coastal Systems – Analysis and Modeling, Geesthacht, Germany
present address: Leipzig Institute for Meteorology, Universität Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
Giorgia Di Capua
Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Department of Water, Environment, Construction and Safety, Magdeburg–Stendal University of Applied Sciences, Magdeburg, Germany
Leonard F. Borchert
Institute of Oceanography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
Reik V. Donner
Department of Water, Environment, Construction and Safety, Magdeburg–Stendal University of Applied Sciences, Magdeburg, Germany
Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Johanna Baehr
Institute of Oceanography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
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Short summary
We demonstrate with a causal analysis that an important recurrent summer atmospheric pattern, the so-called East Atlantic teleconnection, was influenced by the extratropical North Atlantic in spring during the second half of the 20th century. This causal link is, however, not well represented by our evaluated seasonal climate prediction system. We show that simulations able to reproduce this link show improved surface climate prediction credibility over those that do not.
We demonstrate with a causal analysis that an important recurrent summer atmospheric pattern,...
