Articles | Volume 2, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-129-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-129-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
09 Mar 2021
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 09 Mar 2021
| 09 Mar 2021
A global climatological perspective on the importance of Rossby wave breaking and intense moisture transport for extreme precipitation events
Andries Jan de Vries
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
ETH Zürich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science,
Zürich, Switzerland
Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Atmospheric Chemistry Department,
Mainz, Germany
Related authors
Maria Pyrina, Wolfgang Wicker, Andries Jan de Vries, Georgios Fragkoulidis, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3088, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3088, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the atmospheric dynamics behind heatwaves, specifically of those occurring simultaneously across regions, known as concurrent heatwaves. We find that heatwaves are strongly modulated by Rossby wave packets, being Rossby waves whose amplitude has a local maximum and decays at larger distances. High amplitude Rossby wave packets increase the occurrence probabilities of concurrent and non-concurrent heatwaves by a factor of 15 and 18, respectively, over several regions globally.
Luca G. Severino, Chahan M. Kropf, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Christopher Fairless, Andries Jan de Vries, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and David N. Bresch
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-205, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-205, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses climate projections from 30 climate models and a climate-risk assessment model to obtain projections of future windstorm damage over Europe. We find the damage projections to be highly uncertain and dominated by climate model uncertainty. We find potential increases in windstorm damage over western, and northern-central Europe, and a decrease over the rest of Europe. Our findings demonstrate the importance of climate model uncertainty for the projections of windstorms in Europe.
Matthias Röthlisberger, Barbara Scherrer, Andries Jan de Vries, and Raphael Portmann
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 733–754, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-733-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-733-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We examine the palette of synoptic storylines accompanying unusually long wet spells in Europe. Thereby, we identify a hitherto not documented mechanism for generating long wet spells which involves recurrent Rossby wave breaking and subsequent cutoff replenishment. Understanding the synoptic processes behind long wet spells is relevant in light of projected changes in wet spell characteristics as it is a prerequisite for evaluating climate models with regard to such events.
Andries Jan de Vries, Franziska Aemisegger, Stephan Pfahl, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 8863–8895, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8863-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8863-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Earth's water cycle contains the common H2O molecule but also the less abundant, heavier HDO. We use their different physical properties to study tropical ice clouds in model simulations of the West African monsoon. Isotope signals reveal different processes through which ice clouds form and decay in deep-convective and widespread cirrus. Previously observed variations in upper-tropospheric vapour isotopes are explained by microphysical processes in convective updraughts and downdraughts.
Maria Pyrina, Wolfgang Wicker, Andries Jan de Vries, Georgios Fragkoulidis, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3088, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3088, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the atmospheric dynamics behind heatwaves, specifically of those occurring simultaneously across regions, known as concurrent heatwaves. We find that heatwaves are strongly modulated by Rossby wave packets, being Rossby waves whose amplitude has a local maximum and decays at larger distances. High amplitude Rossby wave packets increase the occurrence probabilities of concurrent and non-concurrent heatwaves by a factor of 15 and 18, respectively, over several regions globally.
Luca G. Severino, Chahan M. Kropf, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Christopher Fairless, Andries Jan de Vries, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and David N. Bresch
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-205, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-205, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses climate projections from 30 climate models and a climate-risk assessment model to obtain projections of future windstorm damage over Europe. We find the damage projections to be highly uncertain and dominated by climate model uncertainty. We find potential increases in windstorm damage over western, and northern-central Europe, and a decrease over the rest of Europe. Our findings demonstrate the importance of climate model uncertainty for the projections of windstorms in Europe.
Matthias Röthlisberger, Barbara Scherrer, Andries Jan de Vries, and Raphael Portmann
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 733–754, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-733-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-733-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We examine the palette of synoptic storylines accompanying unusually long wet spells in Europe. Thereby, we identify a hitherto not documented mechanism for generating long wet spells which involves recurrent Rossby wave breaking and subsequent cutoff replenishment. Understanding the synoptic processes behind long wet spells is relevant in light of projected changes in wet spell characteristics as it is a prerequisite for evaluating climate models with regard to such events.
Andries Jan de Vries, Franziska Aemisegger, Stephan Pfahl, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 8863–8895, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8863-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8863-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Earth's water cycle contains the common H2O molecule but also the less abundant, heavier HDO. We use their different physical properties to study tropical ice clouds in model simulations of the West African monsoon. Isotope signals reveal different processes through which ice clouds form and decay in deep-convective and widespread cirrus. Previously observed variations in upper-tropospheric vapour isotopes are explained by microphysical processes in convective updraughts and downdraughts.
Related subject area
Dynamical processes in midlatitudes
Influence of radiosonde observations on the sharpness and altitude of the midlatitude tropopause in the ECMWF IFS
Analysing 23 years of warm-season derechos in France: a climatology and investigation of synoptic and environmental changes
A Lagrangian framework for detecting and characterizing the descent of foehn from Alpine to local scales
The upstream–downstream connection of North Atlantic and Mediterranean cyclones in semi-idealized simulations
Understanding the vertical temperature structure of recent record-shattering heatwaves
Persistent warm and cold spells in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics: regionalisation, synoptic-scale dynamics and temperature budget
Linking Gulf Stream air–sea interactions to the exceptional blocking episode in February 2019: a Lagrangian perspective
Process-based classification of Mediterranean cyclones using potential vorticity
The relation between Rossby wave-breaking events and low-level weather systems
Aquaplanet simulations with winter and summer hemispheres: model setup and circulation response to warming
Seasonally dependent increases in subweekly temperature variability over Southern Hemisphere landmasses detected in multiple reanalyses
Life cycle dynamics of Greenland blocking from a potential vorticity perspective
Changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation over the 20th Century
Identification of high-wind features within extratropical cyclones using a probabilistic random forest – Part 2: Climatology over Europe
Cold wintertime air masses over Europe: where do they come from and how do they form?
Diabatic effects on the evolution of storm tracks
Atmospheric response to cold wintertime Tibetan Plateau conditions over eastern Asia in climate models
Transient anticyclonic eddies and their relationship to atmospheric block persistence
A composite approach to produce reference datasets for extratropical cyclone tracks: application to Mediterranean cyclones
Warm conveyor belt characteristics and impacts along the life cycle of extratropical cyclones: Case studies and climatological analysis based on ERA5
Thunderstorm environments in Europe
What distinguishes 100-year precipitation extremes over central European river catchments from more moderate extreme events?
Towards a holistic understanding of blocked regime dynamics through a combination of complementary diagnostic perspectives
Moist available potential energy of the mean state of the atmosphere and the thermodynamic potential for warm conveyor belts and convection
Large spread in the representation of compound long-duration dry and hot spells over Europe in CMIP5
Divergent convective outflow in ICON deep convection-permitting and parameterised deep convection simulations
Similarity and variability of blocked weather-regime dynamics in the Atlantic–European region
Anomalous subtropical zonal winds drive decreases in southern Australian frontal rain
Origin of low-tropospheric potential vorticity in Mediterranean cyclones
Robust poleward jet shifts in idealised baroclinic-wave life-cycle experiments with noisy initial conditions
Revisiting the wintertime emergent constraint of the southern hemispheric midlatitude jet response to global warming
The global atmospheric energy transport analysed by a wavelength-based scale separation
European heatwaves in present and future climate simulations: a Lagrangian analysis
Signatures of Eurasian heat waves in global Rossby wave spectra
Impact of grid spacing, convective parameterization and cloud microphysics in ICON simulations of a warm conveyor belt
Recurrent Rossby waves and south-eastern Australian heatwaves
Identification of high-wind features within extratropical cyclones using a probabilistic random forest – Part 1: Method and case studies
Classification of Alpine south foehn based on 5 years of kilometre-scale analysis data
Meridional-energy-transport extremes and the general circulation of Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes: dominant weather regimes and preferred zonal wavenumbers
Summertime Rossby waves in climate models: substantial biases in surface imprint associated with small biases in upper-level circulation
Diabatic processes modulating the vertical structure of the jet stream above the cold front of an extratropical cyclone: sensitivity to deep convection schemes
The role of cyclones and potential vorticity cutoffs for the occurrence of unusually long wet spells in Europe
Orographic resolution driving the improvements associated with horizontal resolution increase in the Northern Hemisphere winter mid-latitudes
Quantifying climate model representation of the wintertime Euro-Atlantic circulation using geopotential-jet regimes
Circumglobal Rossby wave patterns during boreal winter highlighted by space–time spectral analysis
How intense daily precipitation depends on temperature and the occurrence of specific weather systems – an investigation with ERA5 reanalyses in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere
Differentiating lightning in winter and summer with characteristics of the wind field and mass field
Future changes in the extratropical storm tracks and cyclone intensity, wind speed, and structure
Atmospheric blocking and weather extremes over the Euro-Atlantic sector – a review
Is it north or west foehn? A Lagrangian analysis of Penetration and Interruption of Alpine Foehn intensive observation period 1 (PIANO IOP 1)
Konstantin Krüger, Andreas Schäfler, Martin Weissmann, and George C. Craig
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 491–509, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-491-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-491-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Initial conditions of current numerical weather prediction models insufficiently represent the sharp vertical gradients across the midlatitude tropopause. Observation-space data assimilation output is used to study the influence of assimilated radiosondes on the tropopause. The radiosondes reduce systematic biases of the model background and sharpen temperature and wind gradients in the analysis. Tropopause sharpness is still underestimated in the analysis, which may impact weather forecasts.
Lucas Fery and Davide Faranda
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 439–461, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-439-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-439-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we analyse warm-season derechos – a type of severe convective windstorm – in France between 2000 and 2022, identifying 38 events. We compare their frequency and features with other countries. We also examine changes in the associated large-scale patterns. We find that convective instability has increased in southern Europe. However, the attribution of these changes to natural climate variability, human-induced climate change or a combination of both remains unclear.
Lukas Jansing, Lukas Papritz, and Michael Sprenger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 463–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-463-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-463-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using an innovative approach, the descent of foehn is diagnosed from a Lagrangian perspective based on 15 kilometer-scale simulations combined with online trajectories. The descent is confined to distinct hotspots in the immediate lee of local mountain peaks and chains. Two detailed case studies reveal a varying wave regime to be associated with the descent. Furthermore, additional controlling factors, such as the diurnal cycle, likewise influence the descent activity.
Alexander Scherrmann, Heini Wernli, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 419–438, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-419-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-419-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We show that the formation of Mediterranean cyclones follows the presence of cyclones over the North Atlantic. The distinct regions of cyclone activity in the Mediterranean in the different seasons can be linked to the atmospheric state, in particular the position of the polar jet over the North Atlantic. With this we now better understand the processes that lead to the formation of Mediterranean cyclones. We used a novel simulation framework in which we directly show and probe this connection.
Belinda Hotz, Lukas Papritz, and Matthias Röthlisberger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 323–343, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-323-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-323-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Analysing the vertical structure of temperature anomalies of recent record-breaking heatwaves reveals a complex four-dimensional interplay of anticyclone–heatwave interactions, with vertically strongly varying advective, adiabatic, and diabatic contributions to the respective temperature anomalies. The heatwaves featured bottom-heavy positive temperature anomalies, extending throughout the troposphere.
Alexandre Tuel and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 263–292, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-263-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Warm and cold spells often have damaging consequences for agriculture, power demand, human health and infrastructure, especially when they occur over large areas and persist for a week or more. Here, we split the Northern Hemisphere extratropics into coherent regions where 3-week warm and cold spells in winter and summer are associated with the same large-scale circulation patterns. To understand their physical drivers, we analyse the associated circulation and temperature budget anomalies.
Marta Wenta, Christian M. Grams, Lukas Papritz, and Marc Federer
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 181–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-181-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-181-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study links air–sea interactions over the Gulf Stream to an atmospheric block in February 2019. We found that over 23 % of air masses that were lifted into the block by cyclones interacted with the Gulf Stream. As cyclones pass over the Gulf Stream, they cause intense surface evaporation events, preconditioning the environment for the development of cyclones. This implies that air–sea interactions over the Gulf Stream affect the large-scale dynamics in the North Atlantic–European region.
Yonatan Givon, Or Hess, Emmanouil Flaounas, Jennifer Louise Catto, Michael Sprenger, and Shira Raveh-Rubin
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 133–162, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-133-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A novel classification of Mediterranean cyclones is presented, enabling a separation between storms driven by different atmospheric processes. The surface impact of each cyclone class differs greatly by precipitation, winds, and temperatures, providing an invaluable tool to study the climatology of different types of Mediterranean storms and enhancing the understanding of their predictability, on both weather and climate scales.
Talia Tamarin-Brodsky and Nili Harnik
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 87–108, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-87-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-87-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Synoptic waves in the atmosphere tend to follow a typical Rossby wave lifecycle, involving a linear growth stage followed by nonlinear and irreversible Rossby wave breaking (RWB). Here we take a new approach to study RWB events and their fundamental relation to weather systems by combining a storm-tracking technique and an RWB detection algorithm. The synoptic-scale dynamics leading to RWB is then examined by analyzing time evolution composites of cyclones and anticyclones during RWB events.
Sebastian Schemm and Matthias Röthlisberger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 43–63, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-43-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-43-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change has started to weaken atmospheric circulation during summer in the Northern Hemisphere. However, there is low agreement on the processes underlying changes in, for example, the stationarity of weather patterns or the seasonality of the jet response to warming. This study examines changes during summertime in an idealised setting and confirms some important changes in hemisphere-wide wave and jet characteristics under warming.
Patrick Martineau, Swadhin K. Behera, Masami Nonaka, Hisashi Nakamura, and Yu Kosaka
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The representation of subweekly near-surface temperature variability trends over the Southern Hemisphere landmasses is compared across multiple atmospheric reanalyses. It is found that there is generally a good agreement concerning the positive trends affecting South Africa and Australia in the spring, and South America in the summer. A more efficient generation of subweekly temperature variance by horizontal temperature fluxes contributes to the observed rise.
Seraphine Hauser, Franziska Teubler, Michael Riemer, Peter Knippertz, and Christian M. Grams
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2945, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2945, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Blocking over Greenland has substantial impacts on the weather and climate in mid and high latitudes. This study applies a quasi-Lagrangian thinking on the dynamics of Greenland blocking and reveals two pathways of anticyclonic anomalies linked to the block. Moist processes were found to play a dominant role in the formation and maintenance of blocking. This emphasizes the necessity of the correct representation of moist processes in weather and climate models to realistically depict blocking.
Stephen Outten and Richard Davy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2832, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2832, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The North Atlantic Oscillation is linked to wintertime weather events over Europe. One feature often overlooked is how much the climate variability explained by the NAO has changed over time. We show that there has been a considerable increase in the percentage variance explained by the NAO over the 20th century, and that this is not reproduced by 50 CMIP6 climate models, which are generally biased too high. This has implications for projections and prediction of weather events in the region.
Lea Eisenstein, Benedikt Schulz, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Peter Knippertz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 981–999, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-981-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-981-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mesoscale high-wind features within extratropical cyclones can cause immense damage. In Part 1 of this work, we introduced RAMEFI (RAndom-forest-based MEsoscale wind Feature Identification), an objective, flexible identification tool for these wind features based on a probabilistic random forest. Here, we use RAMEFI to compile a climatology of the features over 19 extended winter seasons over western and central Europe, focusing on relative occurrence, affected areas and further characteristics.
Tiina Nygård, Lukas Papritz, Tuomas Naakka, and Timo Vihma
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 943–961, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-943-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-943-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the general warming trend, wintertime cold-air outbreaks in Europe have remained nearly as extreme and as common as decades ago. In this study, we identify six principal cold anomaly types over Europe in 1979–2020. We show the origins of various physical processes and their contributions to the formation of cold wintertime air masses.
Andrea Marcheggiani and Thomas Spengler
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 927–942, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-927-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-927-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
There is a gap between the theoretical understanding and model representation of moist diabatic effects on the evolution of storm tracks. We seek to bridge this gap by exploring the relationship between diabatic and adiabatic contributions to changes in baroclinicity. We find reversed behaviours in the lower and upper troposphere in the maintenance of baroclinicity. In particular, our study reveals a link between higher moisture availability and upper-tropospheric restoration of baroclinicity.
Alice Portal, Fabio D'Andrea, Paolo Davini, Mostafa E. Hamouda, and Claudia Pasquero
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 809–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-809-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-809-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The differences between climate models can be exploited to infer how specific aspects of the climate influence the Earth system. This work analyses the effects of a negative temperature anomaly over the Tibetan Plateau on the winter atmospheric circulation. We show that models with a colder-than-average Tibetan Plateau present a reinforcement of the eastern Asian winter monsoon and discuss the atmospheric response to the enhanced transport of cold air from the continent toward the Pacific Ocean.
Charlie C. Suitters, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Kevin I. Hodges, Reinhard K. H. Schiemann, and Duncan Ackerley
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 683–700, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-683-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-683-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric blocking describes large and persistent high surface pressure. In this study, the relationship between block persistence and smaller-scale systems is examined. Persistent blocks result from more interactions with small systems, but a block's persistence does not depend as strongly on the strength of these smaller features. This work is important because it provides more knowledge as to how blocks can be allowed to persist, which is something we still do not fully understand.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Leonardo Aragão, Lisa Bernini, Stavros Dafis, Benjamin Doiteau, Helena Flocas, Suzanne L. Gray, Alexia Karwat, John Kouroutzoglou, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Florian Pantillon, Claudia Pasquero, Platon Patlakas, María Ángeles Picornell, Federico Porcù, Matthew D. K. Priestley, Marco Reale, Malcolm J. Roberts, Hadas Saaroni, Dor Sandler, Enrico Scoccimarro, Michael Sprenger, and Baruch Ziv
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 639–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Cyclone detection and tracking methods (CDTMs) have different approaches in defining and tracking cyclone centers. This leads to disagreements on extratropical cyclone climatologies. We present a new approach that combines tracks from individual CDTMs to produce new composite tracks. These new tracks are shown to correspond to physically meaningful systems with distinctive life stages.
Katharina Heitmann, Michael Sprenger, Hanin Binder, Heini Wernli, and Hanna Joos
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1092, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1092, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are coherently ascending air streams that occur in extratropical cyclones where they form precipitation and often affect the large-scale flow. We quantified the key characteristics and impacts of WCBs and linked them to different phases in the cyclone life cycle and to different WCB branches. A climatology of these metrics revealed that WCBs are most intense during cyclone intensification and that the cyclonic and anticyclonic WCB branches show distinct differences.
Deborah Morgenstern, Isabell Stucke, Georg J. Mayr, Achim Zeileis, and Thorsten Simon
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 489–509, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-489-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-489-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Two thunderstorm environments are described for Europe: mass-field thunderstorms, which occur mostly in summer, over land, and under similar meteorological conditions, and wind-field thunderstorms, which occur mostly in winter, over the sea, and under more diverse meteorological conditions. Our descriptions are independent of static thresholds and help to understand why thunderstorms in unfavorable seasons for lightning pose a particular risk to tall infrastructure such as wind turbines.
Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 427–447, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-427-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-427-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we analyse the generic atmospheric processes of very extreme, 100-year precipitation events in large central European river catchments and the corresponding differences to less extreme events, based on a large time series (~1200 years) of simulated but realistic daily precipitation events from the ECMWF. Depending on the catchment, either dynamical mechanisms or thermodynamic conditions or a combination of both distinguish 100-year events from less extreme precipitation events.
Seraphine Hauser, Franziska Teubler, Michael Riemer, Peter Knippertz, and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 399–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-399-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Blocking describes a flow configuration in the midlatitudes where stationary high-pressure systems block the propagation of weather systems. This study combines three individual perspectives that capture the dynamics and importance of various processes in the formation of a major blocking in 2016 from a weather regime perspective. In future work, this framework will enable a holistic view of the dynamics and the role of moist processes in different life cycle stages of blocked weather regimes.
Charles G. Gertler, Paul A. O'Gorman, and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 361–379, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-361-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-361-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The relationship between the time-mean state of the atmosphere and aspects of atmospheric circulation drives general understanding of the atmospheric circulation. Here, we present new techniques to calculate local properties of the time-mean atmosphere and relate those properties to aspects of extratropical circulation with important implications for weather. This relationship should help connect changes to the atmosphere, such as under global warming, to changes in midlatitude weather.
Colin Manning, Martin Widmann, Douglas Maraun, Anne F. Van Loon, and Emanuele Bevacqua
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 309–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-309-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-309-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models differ in their representation of dry spells and high temperatures, linked to errors in the simulation of persistent large-scale anticyclones. Models that simulate more persistent anticyclones simulate longer and hotter dry spells, and vice versa. This information is important to consider when assessing the likelihood of such events in current and future climate simulations so that we can assess the plausibility of their future projections.
Edward Groot, Patrick Kuntze, Annette Katharina Miltenberger, and Holger Tost
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-664, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-664, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Deep convective clouds systems are often associated with severe weather conditions. They can organise into coherent convective cloud systems. Accurate representation in numerical weather prediction is challenging due to the dynamics of the systems and its dependency on resolution. Here, the effect of convective organisation and geometry on outflow winds (altitudes of 7–14 km) is investigated. The divergent outflow originating from these systems is represented in more detail at higher resolution.
Franziska Teubler, Michael Riemer, Christopher Polster, Christian M. Grams, Seraphine Hauser, and Volkmar Wirth
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 265–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-265-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-265-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Weather regimes govern an important part of the sub-seasonal variability of the mid-latitude circulation. The year-round dynamics of blocked regimes in the Atlantic European region are investigated in over 40 years of data. We show that the dynamics between the regimes are on average very similar. Within the regimes, the main variability – starting from the characteristics of dynamical processes alone – dominates and transcends the variability in season and types of transitions.
Acacia S. Pepler and Irina Rudeva
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 175–188, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-175-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-175-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In recent decades, cold fronts have rained less often in southeast Australia, which contributes to decreasing cool season rainfall. The largest changes in front dynamics are found to the north of the area where rain changes. Wet fronts have strong westerly winds that reach much further north than dry fronts do, and these fronts are becoming less common, linked to weakening subtropical winds and changes in the Southern Hemisphere circulation.
Alexander Scherrmann, Heini Wernli, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 157–173, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-157-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the dynamical origin of the lower-atmospheric potential vorticity (PV; linked to the intensity of cyclones) in Mediterranean cyclones. We quantify the contribution of the cyclone and the environment by tracing PV backward in time and space and linking it to the track of the cyclone. We find that the lower-tropospheric PV is produced shortly before the cyclone's stage of highest intensity. We investigate the driving processes and use a global dataset and a process-resolving one.
Felix Jäger, Philip Rupp, and Thomas Birner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 49–60, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-49-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-49-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mid-latitude weather is dominated by the growth, breaking and decay of baroclinic waves and associated jet shifts. A way to study this process is via idealised life-cycle simulations, which are often classified as LC1 (anticyclonic breaking, poleward shift) or LC2 (cyclonic breaking, equatorward shift), depending on details of the initial state. We show that all systems exhibit predominantly anticyclonic character and poleward net shifts if multiple wave modes are allowed to grow simultaneously.
Philipp Breul, Paulo Ceppi, and Theodore G. Shepherd
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 39–47, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-39-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-39-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Accurately predicting the response of the midlatitude jet stream to climate change is very important, but models show a variety of possible scenarios. Previous work identified a relationship between climatological jet latitude and future jet shift in the southern hemispheric winter. We show that the relationship does not hold in separate sectors and propose that zonal asymmetries are the ultimate cause in the zonal mean. This questions the usefulness of the relationship.
Patrick Johannes Stoll, Rune Grand Graversen, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The atmosphere is in motion and hereby transporting warm, cold, moist, and dry air to different climate zones. In this study, we investigate how this transport of energy organises in different manners. Outside the tropics, atmospheric waves of sizes between 2000 and 8000 km, which we perceive as cyclones from the surface, transport most of the energy and moisture poleward. In the winter, large-scale weather situations become very important for transporting energy into the polar regions.
Lisa Schielicke and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1439–1459, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1439-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1439-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Projected future heatwaves in many European regions will be even warmer than the mean increase in summer temperature suggests. To identify the underlying thermodynamic and dynamic processes, we compare Lagrangian backward trajectories of airstreams associated with heatwaves in two time slices (1991–2000 and 2091–2100) in a large single-model ensemble (CEMS-LE). We find stronger future descent associated with adiabatic warming in some regions and increased future diabatic heating in most regions.
Iana Strigunova, Richard Blender, Frank Lunkeit, and Nedjeljka Žagar
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1399–1414, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1399-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1399-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We show that the Eurasian heat waves (HWs) have signatures in the global circulation. We present changes in the probability density functions (PDFs) of energy anomalies in the zonal-mean state and in the Rossby waves at different zonal scales in relation to the changes in intramonthly variability. The skewness of the PDF of planetary-scale Rossby waves is shown to increase during HWs, while their intramonthly variability is reduced, a process referred to as blocking.
Anubhav Choudhary and Aiko Voigt
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1199–1214, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1199-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1199-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The warm conveyor belt (WCB), which is a stream of coherently rising air parcels, is an important feature of extratropical cyclones. This work presents the impact of model grid spacing on simulation of cloud diabatic processes in the WCB of a North Atlantic cyclone. We find that the refinement of the model grid systematically enhances the dynamical properties and heat releasing processes within the WCB. However, this pattern does not have a strong impact on the strength of associated cyclones.
S. Mubashshir Ali, Matthias Röthlisberger, Tess Parker, Kai Kornhuber, and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1139–1156, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1139-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1139-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Persistent weather can lead to extreme weather conditions. One such atmospheric flow pattern, termed recurrent Rossby wave packets (RRWPs), has been shown to increase persistent weather in the Northern Hemisphere. Here, we show that RRWPs are also an important feature in the Southern Hemisphere. We evaluate the role of RRWPs during south-eastern Australian heatwaves and find that they help to persist the heatwaves by forming upper-level high-pressure systems over south-eastern Australia.
Lea Eisenstein, Benedikt Schulz, Ghulam A. Qadir, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Peter Knippertz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1157–1182, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1157-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1157-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Mesoscale high-wind features within extratropical cyclones can cause immense damage. Here, we present RAMEFI, a novel approach to objectively identify the wind features based on a probabilistic random forest. RAMEFI enables a wide range of applications such as probabilistic predictions for the occurrence or a multi-decadal climatology of these features, which will be the focus of Part 2 of the study, with the goal of improving wind and, specifically, wind gust forecasts in the long run.
Lukas Jansing, Lukas Papritz, Bruno Dürr, Daniel Gerstgrasser, and Michael Sprenger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1113–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1113-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1113-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a 5-year climatology of three main foehn types and three deep-foehn subtypes. The main types differ in their large-scale and Alpine-scale weather conditions and the subtypes in terms of the amount and extent of precipitation on the Alpine south side. The different types of foehn are found to strongly affect the local meteorological conditions at Altdorf. The study concludes by setting the new classification into a historic context.
Valerio Lembo, Federico Fabiano, Vera Melinda Galfi, Rune Grand Graversen, Valerio Lucarini, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1037–1062, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1037-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1037-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Eddies in mid-latitudes characterize the exchange of heat between the tropics and the poles. This exchange is largely uneven, with a few extreme events bearing most of the heat transported across latitudes in a season. It is thus important to understand what the dynamical mechanisms are behind these events. Here, we identify recurrent weather regime patterns associated with extreme transports, and we identify scales of mid-latitudinal eddies that are mostly responsible for the transport.
Fei Luo, Frank Selten, Kathrin Wehrli, Kai Kornhuber, Philippe Le Sager, Wilhelm May, Thomas Reerink, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Hideo Shiogama, Daisuke Tokuda, Hyungjun Kim, and Dim Coumou
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 905–935, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-905-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-905-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Recent studies have identified the weather systems in observational data, where wave patterns with high-magnitude values that circle around the whole globe in either wavenumber 5 or wavenumber 7 are responsible for the extreme events. In conclusion, we find that the climate models are able to reproduce the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns as well as their associated surface variables such as temperature, precipitation, and sea level pressure.
Meryl Wimmer, Gwendal Rivière, Philippe Arbogast, Jean-Marcel Piriou, Julien Delanoë, Carole Labadie, Quitterie Cazenave, and Jacques Pelon
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 863–882, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-863-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-863-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of deep convection representation on the jet stream above the cold front of an extratropical cyclone is investigated in the global numerical weather prediction model ARPEGE. Two simulations using different deep convection schemes are compared with (re)analysis datasets and NAWDEX airborne observations. A deeper jet stream is observed with the less active scheme. The diabatic origin of this difference is interpreted by backward Lagrangian trajectories and potential vorticity budgets.
Matthias Röthlisberger, Barbara Scherrer, Andries Jan de Vries, and Raphael Portmann
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 733–754, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-733-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-733-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We examine the palette of synoptic storylines accompanying unusually long wet spells in Europe. Thereby, we identify a hitherto not documented mechanism for generating long wet spells which involves recurrent Rossby wave breaking and subsequent cutoff replenishment. Understanding the synoptic processes behind long wet spells is relevant in light of projected changes in wet spell characteristics as it is a prerequisite for evaluating climate models with regard to such events.
Paolo Davini, Federico Fabiano, and Irina Sandu
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 535–553, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-535-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-535-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In climate models, improvements obtained in the winter mid-latitude circulation following horizontal resolution increase are mainly caused by the more detailed representation of the mean orography. A high-resolution climate model with low-resolution orography might underperform compared to a low-resolution model with low-resolution orography. The absence of proper model tuning at high resolution is considered the potential reason behind such lack of improvements.
Joshua Dorrington, Kristian Strommen, and Federico Fabiano
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 505–533, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-505-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-505-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate how well current state-of-the-art climate models reproduce the wintertime weather of the North Atlantic and western Europe by studying how well different "regimes" of weather are captured. Historically, models have struggled to capture these regimes, making it hard to predict future changes in wintertime extreme weather. We show models can capture regimes if the right method is used, but they show biases, partially as a result of biases in jet speed and eddy strength.
Jacopo Riboldi, Efi Rousi, Fabio D'Andrea, Gwendal Rivière, and François Lott
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 449–469, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-449-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-449-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A revisited space and time spectral decomposition allows us to determine which harmonics dominate the upper-tropospheric flow evolution over a given time period as well as their propagation. This approach is used to identify Rossby wave patterns with a circumglobal extent, affecting weather evolution over different Northern Hemisphere regions. The results cast light on the processes originating and supporting these wave patterns, advocating at the same time for the usefulness of the technique.
Philipp Zschenderlein and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 391–411, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-391-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-391-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation and temperature are two of the most important variables describing our weather and climate. The relationship between these variables has been studied extensively; however, the role of specific weather systems in shaping this relationship has not been analysed yet. We therefore analyse whether intense precipitation occurs on warmer or on colder days and identify the relevant weather systems. In general, weather systems strongly influence this relationship, especially in winter.
Deborah Morgenstern, Isabell Stucke, Thorsten Simon, Georg J. Mayr, and Achim Zeileis
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 361–375, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-361-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-361-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Wintertime lightning in central Europe is rare but has a large damage potential for tall structures such as wind turbines. We use a data-driven approach to explain why it even occurs when the meteorological processes causing thunderstorms in summer are absent. In summer, with strong solar input, thunderclouds have a large vertical extent, whereas in winter, thunderclouds are shallower in the vertical but tilted and elongated in the horizontal by strong winds that increase with altitude.
Matthew D. K. Priestley and Jennifer L. Catto
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 337–360, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-337-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-337-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We use the newest set of climate model experiments from CMIP6 to investigate changes to mid-latitude storm tracks and cyclones from global warming. The overall number of cyclones will decrease. However in winter there will be more of the most intense cyclones, and these intense cyclones are likely to be stronger. Cyclone wind speeds will increase in winter, and as a result the area of strongest wind speeds will increase. By 2100 the area of strong wind speeds may increase by over 30 %.
Lisa-Ann Kautz, Olivia Martius, Stephan Pfahl, Joaquim G. Pinto, Alexandre M. Ramos, Pedro M. Sousa, and Tim Woollings
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 305–336, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-305-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-305-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric blocking is associated with stationary, self-sustaining and long-lasting high-pressure systems. They can cause or at least influence surface weather extremes, such as heat waves, cold spells, heavy precipitation events, droughts or wind extremes. The location of the blocking determines where and what type of extreme event will occur. These relationships are also important for weather prediction and may change due to global warming.
Manuel Saigger and Alexander Gohm
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 279–303, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-279-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-279-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this work a special form of a foehn wind in an Alpine valley with a large-scale northwesterly flow is investigated. The study clarifies the origin of the air mass and the mechanisms by which this air enters the valley. A trajectory analysis shows that the location where the main airstream passes the crest line is more suitable for a foehn classification than the local or large-scale wind direction. Mountain waves and a lee rotor were crucial for importing air into the valley.
Cited articles
Abatzoglou, J. T.: Contribution of cutoff lows to precipitation across the
United States, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 55, 893–899,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0255.1, 2016.
Agel, L., Barlow, M., Colby, F., Binder, H., Catto, J. L., Hoell, A., and
Cohen, J.: Dynamical analysis of extreme precipitation in the US northeast
based on large-scale meteorological patterns, J. Climate, 52, 1739–1760,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4223-2, 2019.
Al-Nassar, A. R., Pelegri, J. L., Sangra, P., Alarcon, M., and Jansa, A.:
Cut-off low systems over Iraq: Contribution to annual precipitation and
synoptic analysis of extreme events, Int. J. Climatol., 40, 908–926,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6247, 2019.
Appenzeller, C. and Davies, H.: Structure of stratospheric intrusions into
the troposphere, Nature, 358, 570–572, https://doi.org/10.1038/358570a0,
1992.
Argence, S., Lambert, D., Richard, E., Sohne, N., Chaboureau, J. P. Crepin,
F., and Arbogast, P.: High resolution numerical study of the Algiers
2001 flash flood: Sensitivity to the upper-level potential vorticity
anomaly, Adv. Geosci., 7, 251–257, 2006.
Ashley, T. and Ashley, W. S.: Flood fatalities in the United States, J.
Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 47, 805–818, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JAMC1611.1, 2008.
Barbero, R., Abatzoglou, J. T., and Fowler, H. J.: Contribution of
large-scale midlatitude disturbances to hourly precipitation extremes in the
United States, Clim. Dynam., 52, 197–208,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4123-5, 2019.
Barlow, M., Gutowski, W. J., Gyakum, J. R., Katz, R. W., Lim, Y. K., Schumacher, R. S., Wehner, M. F., Agel, L., Bosilovich, M., Collow, A., Gershunov, A., Grotjahn, R., Leung, R., Milrad, S., and Min, S. K.: North American extreme precipitation events and related large-scale meteorological patterns: a review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends, Clim. Dynam., 53, 6835–6875, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04958-z, 2019.
Barredo, J. I.: Major flood disasters in Europe: 1950–2005, Nat.
Hazards, 42, 125–148, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-006-9065-2, 2007.
Benjamini, Y. and Hochberg, Y.: Controlling the false discovery rate: a
practical and powerful approach to multiple testing, J. R. Statist. Soc.,
57, 289–300, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1995.tb02031.x,
1995.
Benedict, J. J., Clement, A. C., and Medeiros, B.: Atmospheric blocking and
other large-scale precursor patters of landfalling atmospheric rivers in the
North Pacific: A CESM2 study, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 11330–11353,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030790, 2019.
Berrisford, P., Dee, D., Poli, P., Brugge, R., Fielding, K., Fuentes, M.,
Kallberg, P., Kobayashi, S., Uppala, S., and Simmons, A.: The ERA-Interim
Archive, ERA report series, 1, 1–23, https://www.ecmwf.int/en/elibrary/8174-era-interim-archive-version-20, 2011.
Berry, G., Reeder, M. J., and Jakob, C.: A global climatology of atmospheric
fronts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L04809,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL046451, 2011.
Berry G. J. and Reeder, M. J.: The dynamics of Australian monsoon bursts, J.
Atmos. Sci., 73, 55–69, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0071.1, 2016.
Bozkurt, D., Rondanelli, R., Garreaud, R., and Arriagada, A.: Impact of
warmer eastern tropical Pacific SST on the March 2015 Atacama floods, Mon.
Weather Rev., 144, 4441–4460, 2016.
Catto, J. L. and Pfahl, S.: The importance of fronts for extreme
precipitation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 10791–10801,
https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50852, 2013.
Catto, J. L., Madonna, E., Joos, H., Rudeva, I., and Simmonds, I.: Global
relationship between fronts and warm conveyor belts and the impact on
extreme precipitation, J. Climate, 28, 8411–8429,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0171.1, 2015.
Cavalcanti, I. F. A.: Large scale and synoptic features associated with extreme precipitation over South America: A review and case studies for the first decade of the 21st century, Atmos. Res., 118, 27–40, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2012.06.012, 2012.
Chen, G. T.-J. and Yu, C.-C.: Study of low-level jet and extremely heavy
rainfall over northern Taiwan in the mei-yu season, Mon. Weather Rev., 116,
884–891, 1988.
Crespo N. M., da Rocha, R. P., Sprenger, M., and Wernli, H.: A potential
vorticity perspective on cyclogenesis over centre-eastern South America,
Int. J. Climatol., 41, 1–16, 2021.
Crétat, J., Vizy, E. K., and Cook, K.H.: The relationship between African easterly waves and daily rainfall over West Africa: observations and
regional climate simulations, Clim. Dynam., 44, 385–404,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2120-x, 2015.
Dacre, H. F., Clark, P. A., Martinez-Alvarado, O., and Stringer, M. A.: How
do atmospheric rivers form?, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 96, 1243–1255, 2015.
Dacre, H. F., Martinez-Alvarado, O., and Mbengue, C. O.: Linking atmospheric
rivers and warm conveyor belt airflows, J. Hydrometeorol., 20, 1183–1196,
2019.
Dai, P. and Nie, J.: A global quasi geostrophic diagnosis of extratropical extreme
precipitation, J. Climate, 33, 1–45, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0146.1,
2020.
Davies, H. C.: The quasigeostrophic omega equation: reappraisal,
refinements, and relevance, Mon. Weather Rev., 143, 3–25, 2015.
De Vries, A. J., Tyrlis, E., Edry, D., Krichak, S. O., Steil, B., and
Lelieveld, J.: Extreme precipitation events in the Middle East: Dynamics of
the Active Red Sea Trough, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 7087–7108, 2013.
De Vries, A. J., Feldstein, S. B., Riemer, M., Tyrlis, E., Sprenger, M.,
Baumgart, M., Fnais, M., and Lelieveld, J.: Dynamics of
tropical-extratropical interactions and extreme precipitation events in
Saudi Arabia in autumn, winter and spring, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 142,
1862–1880, 2016.
De Vries, A. J.: Tropical-extratropical interactions and extreme
precipitation events in the Middle East, PhD thesis, University of Mainz,
Mainz, Germany, available at: https://openscience.ub.uni-mainz.de/handle/20.500.12030/2662 (last access: 8 January 2020), 2018.
De Vries, A. J., Ouwersloot, H. G., Feldstein, S. B., Riemer, M., El Kenawy,
A. M., McCabe, M. F., and Lelieveld, J.: Identification of
tropical-extratropical interactions and extreme precipitation events in the
Middle East based on potential vorticity and moisture transport, J. Geophys.
Res.-Atmos., 123, 861–881, 2018.
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P.,
Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P.,
Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N.,
Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S.
B., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P.,
Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M.,
Morcrette, J.-J., Park, B.-K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C.,
Thépaut, J.-N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis:
configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy.
Meteor. Soc., 137, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011.
Dinku, T., Ceccato, P., and Connor, S. J.: Challenges of satellite rainfall
estimation over mountainous and arid parts of east Africa, Int. J. Remote
Sens., 32, 5965–5979, 2011.
Donat, M. G., Sillmann, J., Wild, S., Alexander, L. V., Lippmann, T., and
Zwiers, F. W.: Consistency of temperature and precipitation extremes across
various global gridded in situ and reanalysis datasets, J. Climate, 27,
5019–5035, 2014.
Doswell, C. A., Brooks, H. E., and Maddox, R. A.: Flash flood forecasting:
An ingredients-based methodology, Weather Forecast., 11, 560–581, 1996.
Eckhardt, S., Stohl, A., Wernli, H., James, P., Forster, C., and
Spichtinger, N.: A 15-Year Climatology of Warm Conveyor Belts, J. Climate,
17, 218–237, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<0218:AYCOWC>2.0.CO;2, 2004.
Eden, J. M., Wolter, K., Otto, F. E. L., and van Oldenborgh, G. J.:
Multi-method attribution analysis of extreme precipitation in Boulder,
Colorado, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 124009,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124009, 2016.
EM-DAT: Natural disasters in 2017: Lower mortality, higher cost,
Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of disasters, CRED, Brussels, Issue No. 50, available at: https://www.cred.be/publications?page=1, last access: 8 September 2018.
Espinoza, V., Waliser, D. E., Guan, B., Lavers, D. A., and Ralph, F. M.:
Global Analysis of Climate Change Projection Effects on Atmospheric Rivers,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 4299–4308, 2018.
Favors, J. E. and Abatzoglou, J. T.: Regional surges of monsoonal moisture
into the southwestern United States, Mon. Weather Rev., 141, 182–191, 2013.
Favre, A., Hewitson, B., Lennard, C., Cerezo-Mota, R., and Tadross, M.:
Cut-off lows in the South Africa region and their contribution to
precipitation, Clim. Dynam., 41, 2331–2351,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1579-6, 2013.
Franco-Díaz, A., Klingaman, N. P., Vidale, P. L., Guo, L., and Demory,
M.-E.: The contribution of tropical cyclones to the atmospheric branch of
Middle America's hydrological cycle using observed and reanalysis tracks,
Clim. Dynam., 53, 6145–6158, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04920-z,
2019.
Fröhlich, L., Knippertz, P., Fink, A. H., and Hohberger,
E.: An objective climatology of Tropical Plumes, J. Climate, 26, 5044–5060,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00351.1, 2013.
Froidevaux, P. and Martius, O.: Exceptional integrated vapour transport
toward orography: an important precursor to severe floods in Switzerland, Q.
J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 142, 1997–2012, 2016.
Funatsu, B. M. and Waugh, D. W.: Connections between potential vorticity
intrusions and convection in the Eastern Tropical Pacific, J. Atmos. Sci.,
65, 987–1002, 2008.
Gates, W. L.: Static stability measures in the atmosphere, J. Meteorol., 18,
526–533, 1960.
Gimeno, L., Dominguez, F., Nieto, R., Trigo, R. M., Drumond, A., Reason, C.,
and Marengo, J.: Major mechanisms of atmospheric moisture transport and
their role in extreme precipitation events, Annu. Rev. Env. Resour., 41,
117–141, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-110615-085558, 2016.
Gochis, D., Schumacher, R., Friedrich, K., Doesken, N., Kelsch, M., Sun, J.,
Ikeda, K., Lindsey, D., Wood, A., Dolan, B., Matrosov, S., Newman, A.,
Mahoney, K., Rutledge, S., Johnson, R., Kucera, P., Kennedy, P.,
Sempere-Torres, D., Steiner, M., Roberts, R., Wilson, J., Yu, W.,
Chandrasekar, V., Rasmussen, R., Anderson, A., and Brown, B.: The great
Colorado flood of September 2013, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 96, 1461–1487,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00241.1, 2015.
Graf, M. A., Wernli, H., and Sprenger, M.: Objective classification of
extratropical cyclogenesis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 143, 1047–1061,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2989, 2017.
Grazzini, F., Graig, G. C., Keil, C., Antolini, G., and Pavan, V.: Extreme
precipitation events over northern Italy. Part 1: A systematic
classification with machine-learning techniques, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,
146, 69–85, 2020.
Guan, B. and Waliser, D. E.: Detection of atmospheric rivers: Evaluation and
application of an algorithm for global studies, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.,
120, 12514–12535, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024257, 2015.
Haggag, M. and El-Badry, H.: Mesoscale Numerical Study of Quasi-Stationary
Convective System over Jeddah in November 2009, Atmos. Clim. Sci., 3, 73–86,
https://doi.org/10.4236/acs.2013.31010, 2013.
Hart, N. C. G., Reason, C. J. C., and Fauchereau, N.: Tropical-extratropical
interactions over southern Africa: Three cases of heavy summer season
rainfall, Mon. Weather Rev., 138, 2608–2623, 2010.
Hart, N. C. G., Reason, C. J. C., and Fauchereau, N.: Building a tropical
extratropical cloud band metbot, Mon. Weather Rev., 140, 4005–4016, 2012.
Hart, N. C. G., Reason, C. J. C., and Fauchereau, N.: Cloud bands over southern Africa: seasonality, contribution to rainfall variability and modulation by the MJO, Clim. Dynam., 41, 1199–1212,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1589-4, 2013.
Hawcroft, M., Shaffrey, L., Hodges, K., and Dacre, H.: How much Northern
Hemisphere precipitation is associated with extratropical cyclones?,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L24809, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053866, 2012.
Hong, C-C., Hsu, H.-H., Lin, N.-H., and Chiu, H.: Roles of European blocking
and tropical–extratropical interaction in the 2010 Pakistan flooding,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L13806, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047583, 2011.
Hoskins, B. J., Draghici, I., and Davies, H. C.: A new look at the
v-equation. Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 104, 31–38,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49710443903, 1978.
Hoskins, B., McIntyre, M., and Robertson, A.: On the use and significance of
isentropic potential vorticity maps, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 111,
877–946, https://doi.org/10.1256/smsqj.47001, 1985.
Hsu, H. H. and Chen, Y. T.: Simulation and projection of circulations
associated with atmospheric rivers along the North American northeast coast,
J. Climate, 33, 5673–5695, 2020.
Hu, H., Dominguez, F., and Wang, Z.: Linking atmospheric river hydrological impacts on the U.S. West Coast to Rossby wave breaking, J. Climate, 30, 3381–3399, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0386.1, 2017.
Hurley J. V. and Boos, W. R.: A global climatology of monsoon low-pressure
systems, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 1049–1064, 2015.
Joseph, S., Sahai, A. K., Sharmila, S., Abhilash, S., Borah, N.,
Chattopadhyay, R., Pillai, P. A., Rajeevan, M., and Kumar, A.: North Indian heavy rainfall event during June 2013: diagnostics and extended range prediction, Clim. Dynam., 44, 2049–2065, 2015.
Kahana, R., Ziv, B., Enzel, Y., and Dayan, U.: Synoptic climatology of major
floods in the Negev Desert, Israel, Int J. Climatol., 22, 867–882,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.766, 2002.
Khouakhi, A., Villarini, G., and Vecchi, G. A.: Contribution of tropical
cyclones to rainfall at the global scale, J. Climate, 30, 359–372, 2017.
Knippertz, P.: Tropical-extratropical interactions causing precipitation in
northwest Africa: Statistical analysis and seasonal variations, Mon. Weather
Rev., 131, 3069–3076, 2003.
Knippertz, P. and Martin, J. E.: Tropical plumes and extreme precipitation
in subtropical and tropical West Africa, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131,
2337–2365, 2005.
Knippertz, P.: Tropical–extratropical interactions related to upper-level
troughs at low latitudes, Dynam. Atmos. Oceans, 43, 36–62,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2006.06.003, 2007.
Knippertz, P. and Martin, J. E.: A Pacific moisture conveyor belt and its
relationship to a significant precipitation event in the semiarid
southwestern United States, Weather Forecast., 22, 125–144, 2007.
Knippertz, P. and Wernli, H.: A Lagrangian climatology of tropical moisture
exports to the Northern Hemispheric extratropics, J. Climate, 23, 987–1003,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3333.1, 2010.
Knippertz, P., Wernli, H., and Gläser, G.: A Global
Climatology of Tropical Moisture Exports, J. Climate, 26, 3031–3045,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00401.1, 2013.
Kumar, P., Shukla, B. P., Sharma, S., Kishtawal, C. M., and Pal, P. K.: A
high-resolution simulation of catastrophic rainfall over Uttarakhand, India,
Nat. Hazards, 80, 1119–1134, 10.1007/s11069-015-2013-2, 2016.
Ladwig, W. C. and Stensrud, D. J,: Relationship between tropical easterly
waves and precipitation during the North America monsoon, J. Climate, 22,
258–271, 2009.
Lavers, D. A., Villarini, G., Allan, R. P., Wood, E. F., and Wade, A. J.:
The detection of atmospheric rivers in atmospheric reanalyses and their
links to British winter floods and the large-scale climatic circulation, J.
Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 117, D20106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD018027,
2012.
Lavers, D. A. and Villarini, G: The nexus between atmospheric rivers and
extreme precipitation across Europe, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 3259–3264,
https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50636, 2013a.
Lavers, D. A. and Villarini, G: Atmospheric rivers and flooding over the
Central United States, J. Climate, 26, 7829–7836,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00212.1, 2013b.
Lavers, D. A., Pappenberger, F., and Zsoter, E.: Extending medium-range
predictability of extreme hydrological events in Europe, Nat. Commun., 5,
5382, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms6382, 2014.
Lavers, D. A., Ralph, F. M., Waliser, D. E., Gershunov, A., and Dettinger,
M. D.: Climate change intensification of horizontal water vapor transport in
CMIP5, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 5617–5625, 2015.
Lavers, D. A., Pappenberger, F., Richardson, D. S., and Zsoter, E.: ECMWF
Extreme Forecast Index for water vapor transport: A forecast tool for
atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43,
11852–11858, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071320, 2016.
Lenggenhager, S., Croci-Maspoli, M., Bronnimann, S., and Martius, O.: On the
dynamical coupling between atmospheric blocks and heavy precipitation
events: A discussion of the southern Alpine flood in October 2000, Q. J. Roy.
Meteor. Soc., 145, 530–545, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3449, 2019.
Lenggenhager, S. and Martius, O.: Atmospheric blocks modulate the odds of
heavy precipitation events in Europe, Clim. Dynam., 53, 4155–4171,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04779-0, 2019.
Liu, B. J., Tan, X. Z., Gan, T. Y., Chen, X. H., Lin, K. R., Lu, M. Q., and Liu, Z. Y.: Global atmospheric moisture transport associated with precipitation extremes: mechanisms and climate change impacts, Wires Water, 7, 1–25, e1412, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1412, 2020.
Liu, C. and Barnes, E. A.: Extreme moisture transport into the Arctic linked
to Rossby wave breaking, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 120, 3774–3788, 2015.
Madonna, E., Wernli, H., Joos, H., and Martius, O.: Warm conveyor belts in
the ERA-Interim dataset (1979–2010), Part I: climatology and potential
vorticity evolution, J. Climate, 27, 3–26,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00720.1, 2014.
Mahlstein, I., Bhend, J., Spirig, C., and Martius, O.: Developing an
automated medium-range flood awareness system for Switzerland based on
probabilistic forecasts of integrated water vapor fluxes, Weather
Forecast., 34, 1759–1776, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-18-0189.1, 2019.
Mahoney, K., Jackson, D. L., Neiman, P., Hughes, M., Darby, L., Wick, G.,
White, A., Sukovich, E., and Cifelli, R.: Understanding the Role of
Atmospheric Rivers in Heavy Precipitation in the Southeast United States,
Mon. Weather Rev., 144, 1617–1632, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0279.1,
2016.
Maranan, M., Fink, A. H., and Knippertz, P.: Rainfall types over southern
West Africa: Objective identification, climatology and synoptic environment,
Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 144, 1628–1648, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3345,
2018.
Martius, O., Zenklusen, E., Schwierz, C., and Davies, H. C.: Episodes of
Alpine heavy precipitation with an overlying elongated stratospheric
intrusion: A climatology, Int. J. Climatol., 26, 1149–1164,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1295, 2006.
Martius, O., Schwierz, C., and Davies, H. C.: Breaking waves at the
tropopause in the wintertime Northern Hemisphere: Climatological analyses of
the orientation and the theoretical LC1/2 classification, J. Atmos. Sci.,
64, 2576–2592, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS3977.1, 2007.
Martius, O., Sodemann, H., Joos, H., Pfahl, S.,Winschall, A., Croci-Maspoli,
M., Graf, M., Madonna, E., Mueller, B., Schemm, S., Sedlácek, J.,
Sprenger, M., and Wernli, H.: The role of upper-level dynamics and surface
processes for the Pakistan flood of July 2010, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,
139, 1780–1797, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2082, 2013.
Massacand, A. C., Wernli, H., and Davies, H. C.: Heavy precipitation on the
alpine southside: An upper-level precursor, Geophys. Res. Lett., 25,
1435–1438, https://doi.org/10.1029/98GL50869, 1998.
McGuirk, J. P., Thompson, A. H., and Schaefer, J. R.: An eastern Pacific
tropical plume, Mon. Weather Rev., 116, 2505–2521, 1988.
McIntyre, M. E. and Palmer, T.: Breaking planetary waves in the
stratosphere, Nature, 305, 593–600, 1983.
Monaghan, A., Rife, D. L., Pinto, J. O., Davis, C. A., and Hannan, J. R.:
Global precipitation extremes associated with diurnally varying low-level jets, J. Climate, 23, 5065–5084, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3515.1, 2010.
Moore, B. J., Mahoney, K. M., Sukovich, E. M., Cifelli, R., and Hamill, T.
M.: Climatology and environmental characteristics of extreme precipitation
events in the southeastern United States, Mon. Weather Rev., 143, 718–741,
2015.
Moore, B. J., Keyser, D., and Bosart, L. F.: Linkages between extreme
precipitation events in the central and eastern United States and Rossby
wave breaking, Mon. Weather Rev., 147, 3327–3349, 2019.
Muller, A., Reason, C. J. C., and Fauchereau, N.: Extreme rainfall in the Namib desert during late summer 2006 and influences of regional ocean variability, Int. J. Climatol., 28, 1061–1070, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1603, 2008.
Mundhenk, B. D., Barnes, E. A., and Maloney, E. D.: All-season climatology
and variability of atmospheric river frequencies over the North Pacific, J.
Climate, 29, 4885–4903, 2016a.
Mundhenk, B. D., Barnes, E. A., Maloney, E. D., and Nardi, K. M.: Modulation
of atmospheric rivers near Alaska and the US West Coast by northeast Pacific
height anomalies, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 12751–12765,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025350, 2016b.
NCAR: The NCAR Command Language (Version 6.3.0 and 6.5.0) [software], Boulder, Colorado, UCAR/NCAR/CISL/TDD, https://doi.org/10.5065/D6WD3XH5, 2019.
Neiman, P. J., Ralph, F. M., Wick, G. A., Lundquist, J. D., and Dettinger,
M. D.: Meteorological Characteristics and Overland Precipitation Impacts of
Atmospheric Rivers Affecting the West Coast of North America Based on Eight
Years of SSM/I Satellite Observations, J. Hydrometeorol., 9, 22–47,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JHM855.1, 2008.
Neu, U., Akperov, M. G., Bellenbaum, N., Benestad, R., Blender, R.,
Caballero, R., Cocozza, A., Dacre, H. F., Feng, Y., Fraedrich, K., Grieger,
J., Gulev, S., Hanley, J., Hewson, T., Inatsu,M., Keay, K., Kew, S. F.,
Kindem, I., Leckebusch, G. C., Liberato, M. L. R., Lionello, P., Mokhov, I.
I., Pinto, J. G., Raible, C. C., Reale, M., Rudeva, I., Schuster, M.,
Simmonds, I., Sinclair, M., Sprenger, M., Tilinina, N. D., Trigo, I. F.,
Ulbrich, S., Ulbrich, U., Wang, X. L., and Wernli, H.: IMILAST: A Community
Effort to Intercompare Extratropical Cyclone Detection and Tracking
Algorithms, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 94, 529–547,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00154.1, 2013.
Newell, R., Newell, N., Zhu, Y., and Scott, C.: Tropospheric rivers? A pilot
study, Geophys. Res. Lett., 19, 2401–2404,
https://doi.org/10.1029/92GL02916, 1992.
Nie, J. and Fan, B.: Roles of dynamic forcings and diabatic heating in
summer extreme precipitation in East China and the Southeastern United
States, J. Climate, 32, 5815–5831, 2019.
Papritz, L., Pfahl, S., Rudeva, I., Simmonds, I., Sodemann, H., and Wernli,
H.: The role of extratropical cyclones and fronts for Southern Ocean
freshwater fluxes, J. Climate, 27, 6205–6224,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00409.1, 2014.
Pascale, S. and Bordoni, S.: Tropical and extratropical controls of Gulf of
California surges and summertime precipitation over the southwestern United
States, Mon. Weather Rev., 144, 2695–2718, 2016.
Pasquier J. T., Pfahl S., and Grams, C. M.: Modulation of atmospheric river
occurrence and associated precipitation extremes in the North Atlantic
region by European weather regimes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 1014–1023,
2018.
Payne, A. E. and Magnusdottir, G.: Dynamics of landfalling atmospheric
rivers over the North Pacific in 30 years of MERRA reanalysis, J. Climate,
27, 7133–7150, 2014.
Payne, A. E. and Magnusdottir, G.: Persistent landfalling atmospheric rivers
over the west coast of North America, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121,
13287–13300, 2016.
Pfahl, S. and Wernli, H.: Quantifying the relevance of cyclones for
precipitation extremes, J. Climate, 25, 6770–6780,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00705.1, 2012.
Pfahl, S., Madonna, E., Boettcher, M., Joos, H., and Wernli, H.: Warm
conveyor belts in the ERA-Interim data set (1979–2010). Part II: Moisture
origin and relevance for precipitation, J. Climate, 27, 27–40,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00223.1, 2014.
Portmann, R., Sprenger, M., and Wernli, H.: The three-dimensional life cycle of potential vorticity cutoffs: A global ERA-interim climatology (1979–2017), Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2020-30, in review, 2020a.
Portmann, R., González-Alemán, J. J., Sprenger, M., and Wernli, H.: How an uncertain short-wave perturbation on the North Atlantic wave guide affects the forecast of an intense Mediterranean cyclone (Medicane Zorbas), Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 597–615, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-597-2020, 2020b.
Postel, G. A. and Hitchman M. H.: A climatology of Rossby wave breaking along
the subtropical tropopause, J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 359–373, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1999)056<0359:ACORWB>2.0.CO;2,
1999.
Prat, O. P. and Nelson, B. R.: On the link between tropical cyclones and
daily rainfall extremes derived from global satellite observations, J.
Climate, 29, 6127–6135, 2016.
Ralph, F. M., Neiman, P. J., and Wick, G. A.: Satellite and CALJET aircraft
observations of atmospheric rivers over the eastern North Pacific Ocean
during the winter of 1997/98, Mon. Weather Rev., 132, 1721–1745,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132< 1721:SACAOO>2.0.CO;2,
2004.
Ralph, F. M., Neiman, P. J., Wick, G. A., Gutman, S. I., Dettinger, M. D.,
Cayan, D. R., and White, A. B.: Flooding on California's Russian River: Role
of atmospheric rivers, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L13801,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026689, 2006.
Ralph, F. M., Kiladis, G. N., Weickmann, K., and Reynolds, D. W.: A
multiscale observational case study of a Pacific atmospheric river
exhibiting tropical/extratropical connections and a mesoscale frontal wave,
Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 1169–1189, 2011.
Ramos, A. M., Trigo, R. M., Liberato, M. L. R., and Tome, R.: Daily
precipitation extreme events in the Iberian Peninsula and its association
with atmospheric rivers, J. Hydrometeorol, 16, 579–597,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0103.1, 2015.
Raveh-Rubin, S. and Wernli, H.: Large-scale wind and precipitation extremes
in the Mediterranean: a climatological analysis for 1979–2012, Q. J. Roy.
Meteor. Soc., 141, 2404–2417, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2531, 2015.
Raveh-Rubin, S. and Wernli, H.: Large-scale wind and precipitation extremes
in the Mediterranean: dynamical aspects of five selected cyclone events,
Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 142, 3097–3114, 2016.
Rondanelli, R., Hatchett, B., Rutllant, J., Bozkurt, D., and Garreaud, R.:
Strongest MJO on record triggers extreme Atacama rainfall and warmth in
Antarctica, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 3482–3491, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081475, 2019.
Röthlisberger, M., Pfahl, S., and Martius, O.: Regional-scale jet waviness modulates the occurrence of midlatitude weather extremes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 10989–10997, 10.1002/2016GL070944, 2016.
Röthlisberger, M., Martius, O., and Wernli, H.: Northern Hemisphere
Rossby wave initiation events on the extratropical jet – A climatological
analysis, J. Climate, 31, 743–760, 2018.
Rubin, S., Ziv, B., and Paldor, N.: Tropical plumes over eastern North
Africa as a source of rain in the Middle East, Mon. Weather Rev., 135,
4135–4148, 2007.
Rutz, J. J., Steenburgh, W. J., and Ralph, F. M.: Climatological
characteristics of atmospheric rivers and their inland penetration over the
western United States, Mon. Weather Rev., 142, 905–921, 2014.
Ryoo, J. M., Kaspi, Y., Waugh, D. W., Kiladis, G. N., Waliser, D. E.,
Fetzer, E. J., and Kim, J.: Impact of Rossby wave breaking on U.S. West
Coast winter precipitation during ENSO events, J. Climate, 26, 6360–6382,
2013.
Schemm, S., Rudeva, I., and Simmonds, I.: Extratropical fronts in the lower
troposphere–global perspectives obtained from two automated methods, Q. J.
Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 1686–1698, 2015.
Schlemmer, L., Martius, O., Sprenger, M., Schwierz, C., and Twitchett, A.:
Disentangling the forcing mechanisms of a heavy precipitation event along
the alpine south side using potential vorticity inversion, Mon. Weather
Rev., 138, 2336–2353, 2010.
Sierks, M. D., Kalansky, J., Cannon, F., and Ralph, F. M.: Characteristics,
origins and impacts of summertime extreme precipitation in the Lake Mead
Watershed, J. Climate, 33, 2663–2680, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0387.1, 2020.
Simmonds, I, Keay, K., and Bye, J. A. T.: Identification and climatology of
Southern Hemisphere mobile fronts in a modern reanalysis, J. Climate, 25,
1945–1962, 2012.
Skok, G., Tribbia, J., Rakovec, J., and Brown, B.: Object-based analysis of
satellite-derived precipitation systems over the low- and midlatitude
Pacific Ocean, Mon. Weather Rev., 137, 3196–3218, 2009.
Sousa, P. M., Ramos, A. M., Riable, C. C., Messmer, M. Tome, R., and Pinto, J.
G.: North Atlantic integrated water vapor transport – from 850 to 2100 CE:
Impacts on Western European rainfall, J. Climate, 33, 263–279, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0348.1, 2020.
Sprenger, M., Fragkoulidis, G., Binder, H., Croci-Maspoli, M., Graf, P.,
Grams, C. M., Knippertz, P., Madonna, E., Schemm, S., Skerlak, B., and
Wernli, H.: Global climatologies of Eulerian and Lagrangian flow features
based on ERA-interim, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 98, 1739–1748,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00299.1, 2017.
Sprenger, M., Martius, O., and Arnold, J.: Cold surge episodes over
southeastern Brazil – a potential vorticity perspective, Int. J. Climatol.,
33, 2758–2767, 2013.
Strong, C. and Magnusdottir, G.: Tropospheric Rossby wave breaking and the
NAO/NAM, J. Atmos. Sci., 65, 2861–2876, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JAS2632.1, 2008.
Sun, Q., Miao, C., Duan, Q., Ashouri, H., Sorooshian, S., and Hsu, K.-L.: A
Review of Global Precipitation Data Sets: Data Sources, Estimation, and
Intercomparisons, Rev. Geophys., 56, 79–107,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017RG000574, 2018.
Swales, D., Alexander, M., and Hughes, M.: Examining moisture pathways and
extreme precipitation in the U.S. intermountain west using self-organizing
maps, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 1727–1735, 2016.
Tan, X. Z., Gan, T. Y., and Chen, Y. D.: Synoptic moisture pathways
associated with mean and extreme precipitation over Canada for summer and
fall, Clim. Dynam., 52, 2959–2979, 2019.
Terti, G., Ruin, I., Anquetin, S., and Gourley, J. J.: A situation-based
analysis of flash flood fatalities in the United States, B. Am. Meteorol.
Soc., 98, 333–345, 2017.
Thorncroft, C., Hoskins, B., and McIntyre, M.: Two paradigms of
baroclinic-wave life-cycle behaviour, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 119,
17–55, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49711950903, 1993.
Todd, M. C. and Washington, R.: Circulation anomalies associated with
tropical-temperate troughs in southern Africa and the south west Indian
Ocean, Clim. Dynam., 15, 937–951, https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050323, 1999.
Tsuji, H. and Takayabu, Y. N.: Precipitation enhancement via the interplay
between atmospheric rivers and cutoff lows, Mon. Weather Rev., 147,
2451–2466, 2019.
van Heerden, J. and Taljaard, J. J.: Africa and surrounding waters, in:
Meteorology of the Southern Hemisphere,
Vol. 27, American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-935704-10-2, 1998.
Vellore, R., Kaplan, M., Krishnan, R., Lewis, J., Sabade, S., Deshpande, N.,
Singh, B. Madhura, R., and Rama Rao, M. V. S.: Monsoon–extratropical
circulation interactions in Himalayan extreme rainfall, Clim. Dynam., 46,
3517–3546, 2016.
Vigaud, N. and Robertson, A.: Convection regimes and tropical-midlatitude
interactions over the Intra-American Seas from May to November, Int. J.
Climatol., 37, 987–1000, 2017.
Waliser, D. and Guan, B.: Extreme winds and precipitation during landfall of
atmospheric rivers, Nat. Geosci., 10, 179–183,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2894, 2017.
Wernli, H. and Schwierz, C.: Surface cyclones in the ERA-40 dataset
(1958-2001). Part I: Novel identification method and global climatology, J.
Atmos. Sci., 63, 2486–2507, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS3766.1, 2006.
Wernli, H. and Sprenger, M.: Identification and ERA-15 climatology of
potential vorticity streamers and cutoffs near the extratropical tropopause,
J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 1569–1586, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS3912.1, 2007.
Whelan, J. and Frederiksen, J. S.: Dynamics of the perfect storms: La Nina and Australia's extreme rainfall and floods of 1974 and 2011, Clim. Dynam., 48, 3935–3948, 2017.
White, R. H., Battisti, D. S., Skok, G.: Tracking precipitation events in
time and space in gridded observational data, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44,
8637–8646, 2017.
Wilcox, A., Escauriaza, C., Agredano, R., Mignot, E., Zuazo, V.,
Otárola, S., Castro, L., Gironás, J., Cienfuegos, R., and Mao, L.:
An integrated analysis of the March 2015 Atacama floods, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 43, 8035–8043, 2016.
Wilks, D. S.: “The stippling shows statistically significant grid points”:
How research results are routinely overstated and overinterpreted, and what
to do about it, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 97, 2263–2273,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00267.1, 2016.
Winschall, A., Sodemann, H., Pfahl, S., and Wernli, H.: How important is
intensified evaporation for Mediterranean precipitation extremes?, J.
Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 119, 5240–5256, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD021175, 2014.
Wright, W. J.: Tropical-extratropical cloudbands and Australian rainfall: I.
Climatalogy, Int. J. Climatol., 17, 807–829, 1997.
Yang, L., Smith, J., Baeck, M. L., and Morin, E.: Flash flooding in
arid/semiarid regions: climatological analyses of flood-producing storms in
central Arizona during the North American Monsoon, J. Hydrometeorol., 20,
1449–11471, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-19-0016.1, 2019.
Zambrano-Bigiarini, M., Nauditt, A., Birkel, C., Verbist, K., and Ribbe, L.: Temporal and spatial evaluation of satellite-based rainfall estimates across the complex topographical and climatic gradients of Chile, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1295–1320, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1295-2017, 2017.
Zavadoff, B. L. and Kirtman, B. P.: Dynamic and thermodynamic modulators of
European atmospheric rivers, J. Climate, 33, 4167–4185,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0601.1, 2020.
Zhang, X., Alexander, L., Hegerl, G. C., Jones, P., Tank, A. K., Peterson,
T. C., Trewin, B., and Zwiers, F. W.: Indices for monitoring changes in
extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data, WIRES Clim.
Change, 2, 851–870, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.147, 2011.
Short summary
Heavy rainfall can cause dramatic societal impacts. This paper presents the first global study on the role of Rossby wave breaking and intense moisture transport for extreme precipitation events. Several catastrophic flood events demonstrate the importance of these two processes, complemented by a detailed climatological analysis. These findings present a new perspective on the meteorology of extreme precipitation events with implications for their prediction and studies on their future changes.
Heavy rainfall can cause dramatic societal impacts. This paper presents the first global study...
