Articles | Volume 4, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-175-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-175-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
31 Jan 2023
Research article |
| 31 Jan 2023
| 31 Jan 2023
Anomalous subtropical zonal winds drive decreases in southern Australian frontal rain
Acacia S. Pepler
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Research Program, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia
Irina Rudeva
Research Program, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia
Related authors
Conrad Wasko, Seth Westra, Rory Nathan, Acacia Pepler, Timothy H. Raupach, Andrew Dowdy, Fiona Johnson, Michelle Ho, Kathleen L. McInnes, Doerte Jakob, Jason Evans, Gabriele Villarini, and Hayley J. Fowler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1251–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1251-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1251-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In response to flood risk, design flood estimation is a cornerstone of infrastructure design and emergency response planning, but design flood estimation guidance under climate change is still in its infancy. We perform the first published systematic review of the impact of climate change on design flood estimation and conduct a meta-analysis to provide quantitative estimates of possible future changes in extreme rainfall.
Emma Howard, Chun-Hsu Su, Christian Stassen, Rajashree Naha, Harvey Ye, Acacia Pepler, Samuel S. Bell, Andrew J. Dowdy, Simon O. Tucker, and Charmaine Franklin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 731–757, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-731-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-731-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The BARPA-R modelling configuration has been developed to produce high-resolution climate hazard projections within the Australian region. When using boundary driving data from quasi-observed historical conditions, BARPA-R shows good performance with errors generally on par with reanalysis products. BARPA-R also captures trends, known modes of climate variability, large-scale weather processes, and multivariate relationships.
Conrad Wasko, Seth Westra, Rory Nathan, Acacia Pepler, Timothy H. Raupach, Andrew Dowdy, Fiona Johnson, Michelle Ho, Kathleen L. McInnes, Doerte Jakob, Jason Evans, Gabriele Villarini, and Hayley J. Fowler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1251–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1251-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1251-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In response to flood risk, design flood estimation is a cornerstone of infrastructure design and emergency response planning, but design flood estimation guidance under climate change is still in its infancy. We perform the first published systematic review of the impact of climate change on design flood estimation and conduct a meta-analysis to provide quantitative estimates of possible future changes in extreme rainfall.
Emma Howard, Chun-Hsu Su, Christian Stassen, Rajashree Naha, Harvey Ye, Acacia Pepler, Samuel S. Bell, Andrew J. Dowdy, Simon O. Tucker, and Charmaine Franklin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 731–757, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-731-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-731-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The BARPA-R modelling configuration has been developed to produce high-resolution climate hazard projections within the Australian region. When using boundary driving data from quasi-observed historical conditions, BARPA-R shows good performance with errors generally on par with reanalysis products. BARPA-R also captures trends, known modes of climate variability, large-scale weather processes, and multivariate relationships.
Related subject area
Dynamical processes in midlatitudes
Large-scale perspective on extreme near-surface winds in the central North Atlantic
Divergent convective outflow in ICON deep-convection-permitting and parameterised deep convection simulations
Changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation over the 20th century
Life cycle dynamics of Greenland blocking from a potential vorticity perspective
Warm conveyor belt characteristics and impacts along the life cycle of extratropical cyclones: case studies and climatological analysis based on ERA5
Influence of radiosonde observations on the sharpness and altitude of the midlatitude tropopause in the ECMWF IFS
Analysing 23 years of warm-season derechos in France: a climatology and investigation of synoptic and environmental changes
A Lagrangian framework for detecting and characterizing the descent of foehn from Alpine to local scales
The upstream–downstream connection of North Atlantic and Mediterranean cyclones in semi-idealized simulations
Understanding the vertical temperature structure of recent record-shattering heatwaves
Persistent warm and cold spells in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics: regionalisation, synoptic-scale dynamics and temperature budget
Linking Gulf Stream air–sea interactions to the exceptional blocking episode in February 2019: a Lagrangian perspective
Linking compound weather extremes to Mediterranean cyclones, fronts and air-streams
Process-based classification of Mediterranean cyclones using potential vorticity
The relation between Rossby wave-breaking events and low-level weather systems
Aquaplanet simulations with winter and summer hemispheres: model setup and circulation response to warming
Seasonally dependent increases in subweekly temperature variability over Southern Hemisphere landmasses detected in multiple reanalyses
Identification of high-wind features within extratropical cyclones using a probabilistic random forest – Part 2: Climatology over Europe
Cold wintertime air masses over Europe: where do they come from and how do they form?
Diabatic effects on the evolution of storm tracks
A storm-relative climatology of compound hazards in Mediterranean cyclones
Towards a process-oriented understanding of the impact of stochastic perturbations on the model climate
Atmospheric response to cold wintertime Tibetan Plateau conditions over eastern Asia in climate models
Exploring the vertical extent and deepening mechanisms of cut-off lows in the Southern Hemisphere: insights from eddy kinetic energy analysis
Transient anticyclonic eddies and their relationship to atmospheric block persistence
A composite approach to produce reference datasets for extratropical cyclone tracks: application to Mediterranean cyclones
Thunderstorm environments in Europe
What distinguishes 100-year precipitation extremes over central European river catchments from more moderate extreme events?
Towards a holistic understanding of blocked regime dynamics through a combination of complementary diagnostic perspectives
Moist available potential energy of the mean state of the atmosphere and the thermodynamic potential for warm conveyor belts and convection
Large spread in the representation of compound long-duration dry and hot spells over Europe in CMIP5
Similarity and variability of blocked weather-regime dynamics in the Atlantic–European region
A linear assessment of waveguidability for barotropic Rossby waves in different large-scale flow configurations
Origin of low-tropospheric potential vorticity in Mediterranean cyclones
Robust poleward jet shifts in idealised baroclinic-wave life-cycle experiments with noisy initial conditions
Revisiting the wintertime emergent constraint of the southern hemispheric midlatitude jet response to global warming
The global atmospheric energy transport analysed by a wavelength-based scale separation
European heatwaves in present and future climate simulations: a Lagrangian analysis
Signatures of Eurasian heat waves in global Rossby wave spectra
Impact of grid spacing, convective parameterization and cloud microphysics in ICON simulations of a warm conveyor belt
Recurrent Rossby waves and south-eastern Australian heatwaves
Identification of high-wind features within extratropical cyclones using a probabilistic random forest – Part 1: Method and case studies
Classification of Alpine south foehn based on 5 years of kilometre-scale analysis data
Meridional-energy-transport extremes and the general circulation of Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes: dominant weather regimes and preferred zonal wavenumbers
Summertime Rossby waves in climate models: substantial biases in surface imprint associated with small biases in upper-level circulation
Diabatic processes modulating the vertical structure of the jet stream above the cold front of an extratropical cyclone: sensitivity to deep convection schemes
The role of cyclones and potential vorticity cutoffs for the occurrence of unusually long wet spells in Europe
Orographic resolution driving the improvements associated with horizontal resolution increase in the Northern Hemisphere winter mid-latitudes
Quantifying climate model representation of the wintertime Euro-Atlantic circulation using geopotential-jet regimes
Circumglobal Rossby wave patterns during boreal winter highlighted by space–time spectral analysis
Aleksa Stanković, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Rodrigo Caballero
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 821–837, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The article studies extreme winds near the surface over the North Atlantic Ocean. These winds are caused by storms that pass through this region. The strongest storms that have occurred in the winters from 1950–2020 are studied in detail and compared to weaker but still strong storms. The analysis shows that the storms associated with the strongest winds are preceded by another older storm that travelled through the same region and made the conditions suitable for development of extreme winds.
Edward Groot, Patrick Kuntze, Annette Miltenberger, and Holger Tost
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 779–803, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-779-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-779-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Deep convective clouds (thunderstorms), which may cause severe weather, tend to coherently organise into structured cloud systems. Accurate representation of these systems in models is difficult due to their complex dynamics and, in numerical simulations, the dependence of their dynamics on resolution. Here, the effect of convective organisation and geometry on their outflow winds (altitudes of 7–14 km) is investigated. Representation of their dynamics and outflows improves at higher resolution.
Stephen Outten and Richard Davy
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 753–762, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-753-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-753-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The North Atlantic Oscillation is linked to wintertime weather events over Europe. One feature often overlooked is how much the climate variability explained by the NAO has changed over time. We show that there has been a considerable increase in the percentage variance explained by the NAO over the 20th century and that this is not reproduced by 50 CMIP6 climate models, which are generally biased too high. This has implications for projections and prediction of weather events in the region.
Seraphine Hauser, Franziska Teubler, Michael Riemer, Peter Knippertz, and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 633–658, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-633-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Blocking over Greenland has substantial impacts on the weather and climate in mid- and high latitudes. This study applies a quasi-Lagrangian thinking on the dynamics of Greenland blocking and reveals two pathways of anticyclonic anomalies linked to the block. Moist processes were found to play a dominant role in the formation and maintenance of blocking. This emphasizes the necessity of the correct representation of moist processes in weather and climate models to realistically depict blocking.
Katharina Heitmann, Michael Sprenger, Hanin Binder, Heini Wernli, and Hanna Joos
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 537–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-537-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-537-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are coherently ascending air streams that occur in extratropical cyclones where they form precipitation and often affect the large-scale flow. We quantified the key characteristics and impacts of WCBs and linked them to different phases in the cyclone life cycle and to different WCB branches. A climatology of these metrics revealed that WCBs are most intense during cyclone intensification and that the cyclonic and anticyclonic WCB branches show distinct differences.
Konstantin Krüger, Andreas Schäfler, Martin Weissmann, and George C. Craig
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 491–509, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-491-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-491-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Initial conditions of current numerical weather prediction models insufficiently represent the sharp vertical gradients across the midlatitude tropopause. Observation-space data assimilation output is used to study the influence of assimilated radiosondes on the tropopause. The radiosondes reduce systematic biases of the model background and sharpen temperature and wind gradients in the analysis. Tropopause sharpness is still underestimated in the analysis, which may impact weather forecasts.
Lucas Fery and Davide Faranda
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 439–461, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-439-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-439-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we analyse warm-season derechos – a type of severe convective windstorm – in France between 2000 and 2022, identifying 38 events. We compare their frequency and features with other countries. We also examine changes in the associated large-scale patterns. We find that convective instability has increased in southern Europe. However, the attribution of these changes to natural climate variability, human-induced climate change or a combination of both remains unclear.
Lukas Jansing, Lukas Papritz, and Michael Sprenger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 463–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-463-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-463-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using an innovative approach, the descent of foehn is diagnosed from a Lagrangian perspective based on 15 kilometer-scale simulations combined with online trajectories. The descent is confined to distinct hotspots in the immediate lee of local mountain peaks and chains. Two detailed case studies reveal a varying wave regime to be associated with the descent. Furthermore, additional controlling factors, such as the diurnal cycle, likewise influence the descent activity.
Alexander Scherrmann, Heini Wernli, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 419–438, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-419-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-419-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We show that the formation of Mediterranean cyclones follows the presence of cyclones over the North Atlantic. The distinct regions of cyclone activity in the Mediterranean in the different seasons can be linked to the atmospheric state, in particular the position of the polar jet over the North Atlantic. With this we now better understand the processes that lead to the formation of Mediterranean cyclones. We used a novel simulation framework in which we directly show and probe this connection.
Belinda Hotz, Lukas Papritz, and Matthias Röthlisberger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 323–343, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-323-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-323-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Analysing the vertical structure of temperature anomalies of recent record-breaking heatwaves reveals a complex four-dimensional interplay of anticyclone–heatwave interactions, with vertically strongly varying advective, adiabatic, and diabatic contributions to the respective temperature anomalies. The heatwaves featured bottom-heavy positive temperature anomalies, extending throughout the troposphere.
Alexandre Tuel and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 263–292, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-263-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Warm and cold spells often have damaging consequences for agriculture, power demand, human health and infrastructure, especially when they occur over large areas and persist for a week or more. Here, we split the Northern Hemisphere extratropics into coherent regions where 3-week warm and cold spells in winter and summer are associated with the same large-scale circulation patterns. To understand their physical drivers, we analyse the associated circulation and temperature budget anomalies.
Marta Wenta, Christian M. Grams, Lukas Papritz, and Marc Federer
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 181–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-181-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-181-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study links air–sea interactions over the Gulf Stream to an atmospheric block in February 2019. We found that over 23 % of air masses that were lifted into the block by cyclones interacted with the Gulf Stream. As cyclones pass over the Gulf Stream, they cause intense surface evaporation events, preconditioning the environment for the development of cyclones. This implies that air–sea interactions over the Gulf Stream affect the large-scale dynamics in the North Atlantic–European region.
Alice Portal, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Jennifer L. Catto, Yonatan Givon, and Olivia Martius
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-270, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-270, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mediterranean cyclones are associated with extended rain, wind and wave impacts. Although beneficial for regional water resources, their passage may induce extreme weather, which is specially impactful when multiple hazards combine together. Here we show how the passage of Mediterranean cyclones increases the likelihood of rain-wind and wave-wind compounding, and how compound-cyclone statistics varies by region and season, but also depends on the presence of specific airflows around the cyclone.
Yonatan Givon, Or Hess, Emmanouil Flaounas, Jennifer Louise Catto, Michael Sprenger, and Shira Raveh-Rubin
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 133–162, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-133-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A novel classification of Mediterranean cyclones is presented, enabling a separation between storms driven by different atmospheric processes. The surface impact of each cyclone class differs greatly by precipitation, winds, and temperatures, providing an invaluable tool to study the climatology of different types of Mediterranean storms and enhancing the understanding of their predictability, on both weather and climate scales.
Talia Tamarin-Brodsky and Nili Harnik
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 87–108, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-87-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-87-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Synoptic waves in the atmosphere tend to follow a typical Rossby wave lifecycle, involving a linear growth stage followed by nonlinear and irreversible Rossby wave breaking (RWB). Here we take a new approach to study RWB events and their fundamental relation to weather systems by combining a storm-tracking technique and an RWB detection algorithm. The synoptic-scale dynamics leading to RWB is then examined by analyzing time evolution composites of cyclones and anticyclones during RWB events.
Sebastian Schemm and Matthias Röthlisberger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 43–63, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-43-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-43-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change has started to weaken atmospheric circulation during summer in the Northern Hemisphere. However, there is low agreement on the processes underlying changes in, for example, the stationarity of weather patterns or the seasonality of the jet response to warming. This study examines changes during summertime in an idealised setting and confirms some important changes in hemisphere-wide wave and jet characteristics under warming.
Patrick Martineau, Swadhin K. Behera, Masami Nonaka, Hisashi Nakamura, and Yu Kosaka
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The representation of subweekly near-surface temperature variability trends over the Southern Hemisphere landmasses is compared across multiple atmospheric reanalyses. It is found that there is generally a good agreement concerning the positive trends affecting South Africa and Australia in the spring, and South America in the summer. A more efficient generation of subweekly temperature variance by horizontal temperature fluxes contributes to the observed rise.
Lea Eisenstein, Benedikt Schulz, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Peter Knippertz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 981–999, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-981-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-981-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mesoscale high-wind features within extratropical cyclones can cause immense damage. In Part 1 of this work, we introduced RAMEFI (RAndom-forest-based MEsoscale wind Feature Identification), an objective, flexible identification tool for these wind features based on a probabilistic random forest. Here, we use RAMEFI to compile a climatology of the features over 19 extended winter seasons over western and central Europe, focusing on relative occurrence, affected areas and further characteristics.
Tiina Nygård, Lukas Papritz, Tuomas Naakka, and Timo Vihma
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 943–961, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-943-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-943-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the general warming trend, wintertime cold-air outbreaks in Europe have remained nearly as extreme and as common as decades ago. In this study, we identify six principal cold anomaly types over Europe in 1979–2020. We show the origins of various physical processes and their contributions to the formation of cold wintertime air masses.
Andrea Marcheggiani and Thomas Spengler
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 927–942, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-927-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-927-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
There is a gap between the theoretical understanding and model representation of moist diabatic effects on the evolution of storm tracks. We seek to bridge this gap by exploring the relationship between diabatic and adiabatic contributions to changes in baroclinicity. We find reversed behaviours in the lower and upper troposphere in the maintenance of baroclinicity. In particular, our study reveals a link between higher moisture availability and upper-tropospheric restoration of baroclinicity.
Raphaël Rousseau-Rizzi, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Jennifer Catto, Alice Portal, Yonatan Givon, and Olivia Martius
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2322, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2322, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We aim to identify the situations when rain and wind, rain and wave, or heat and dust hazards co-occur within cyclones in the Mediterranean. These poorly understood hazard combinations respectively enhance the risk to infrastructure, the risk of coastal flooding, and the risk of respiratory issues. We identify distinct weather configurations and distinct cyclone structures, which favor distinct co-occurrence combinations. This has implications for the forecasting of these hazards.
Moritz Deinhard and Christian M. Grams
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1938, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1938, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Stochastic perturbations are a frequently used technique to represent model uncertainties in numerical weather prediction. While such schemes are beneficial for the forecast skill, they can also change the mean state of the model. We focus on how different schemes modulate rapidly ascending air streams, such as warm conveyor belts, and whether the changes to these weather systems are projected onto larger scales. We thereby provide a process chain how perturbations affect the model climate.
Alice Portal, Fabio D'Andrea, Paolo Davini, Mostafa E. Hamouda, and Claudia Pasquero
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 809–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-809-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-809-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The differences between climate models can be exploited to infer how specific aspects of the climate influence the Earth system. This work analyses the effects of a negative temperature anomaly over the Tibetan Plateau on the winter atmospheric circulation. We show that models with a colder-than-average Tibetan Plateau present a reinforcement of the eastern Asian winter monsoon and discuss the atmospheric response to the enhanced transport of cold air from the continent toward the Pacific Ocean.
Henri Rossi Pinheiro, Kevin Ivan Hodges, and Manoel Alonso Gan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1996, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1996, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Our study on upper-level cyclones, known as cut-off lows (COLs), uncovers deepening mechanisms and geographical influences. Complex interactions, crucial for accurate forecasts, are revealed through advanced methods. Analysis of atmospheric data across regions like Australia, the western Pacific, and southeast South America shows frequent deep COLs. By assessing energy budgets, we unveil robust growth patterns, helping our predictive abilities for weather impacts.
Charlie C. Suitters, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Kevin I. Hodges, Reinhard K. H. Schiemann, and Duncan Ackerley
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 683–700, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-683-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-683-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric blocking describes large and persistent high surface pressure. In this study, the relationship between block persistence and smaller-scale systems is examined. Persistent blocks result from more interactions with small systems, but a block's persistence does not depend as strongly on the strength of these smaller features. This work is important because it provides more knowledge as to how blocks can be allowed to persist, which is something we still do not fully understand.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Leonardo Aragão, Lisa Bernini, Stavros Dafis, Benjamin Doiteau, Helena Flocas, Suzanne L. Gray, Alexia Karwat, John Kouroutzoglou, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Florian Pantillon, Claudia Pasquero, Platon Patlakas, María Ángeles Picornell, Federico Porcù, Matthew D. K. Priestley, Marco Reale, Malcolm J. Roberts, Hadas Saaroni, Dor Sandler, Enrico Scoccimarro, Michael Sprenger, and Baruch Ziv
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 639–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Cyclone detection and tracking methods (CDTMs) have different approaches in defining and tracking cyclone centers. This leads to disagreements on extratropical cyclone climatologies. We present a new approach that combines tracks from individual CDTMs to produce new composite tracks. These new tracks are shown to correspond to physically meaningful systems with distinctive life stages.
Deborah Morgenstern, Isabell Stucke, Georg J. Mayr, Achim Zeileis, and Thorsten Simon
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 489–509, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-489-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-489-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Two thunderstorm environments are described for Europe: mass-field thunderstorms, which occur mostly in summer, over land, and under similar meteorological conditions, and wind-field thunderstorms, which occur mostly in winter, over the sea, and under more diverse meteorological conditions. Our descriptions are independent of static thresholds and help to understand why thunderstorms in unfavorable seasons for lightning pose a particular risk to tall infrastructure such as wind turbines.
Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 427–447, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-427-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-427-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we analyse the generic atmospheric processes of very extreme, 100-year precipitation events in large central European river catchments and the corresponding differences to less extreme events, based on a large time series (~1200 years) of simulated but realistic daily precipitation events from the ECMWF. Depending on the catchment, either dynamical mechanisms or thermodynamic conditions or a combination of both distinguish 100-year events from less extreme precipitation events.
Seraphine Hauser, Franziska Teubler, Michael Riemer, Peter Knippertz, and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 399–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-399-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Blocking describes a flow configuration in the midlatitudes where stationary high-pressure systems block the propagation of weather systems. This study combines three individual perspectives that capture the dynamics and importance of various processes in the formation of a major blocking in 2016 from a weather regime perspective. In future work, this framework will enable a holistic view of the dynamics and the role of moist processes in different life cycle stages of blocked weather regimes.
Charles G. Gertler, Paul A. O'Gorman, and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 361–379, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-361-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-361-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The relationship between the time-mean state of the atmosphere and aspects of atmospheric circulation drives general understanding of the atmospheric circulation. Here, we present new techniques to calculate local properties of the time-mean atmosphere and relate those properties to aspects of extratropical circulation with important implications for weather. This relationship should help connect changes to the atmosphere, such as under global warming, to changes in midlatitude weather.
Colin Manning, Martin Widmann, Douglas Maraun, Anne F. Van Loon, and Emanuele Bevacqua
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 309–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-309-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-309-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models differ in their representation of dry spells and high temperatures, linked to errors in the simulation of persistent large-scale anticyclones. Models that simulate more persistent anticyclones simulate longer and hotter dry spells, and vice versa. This information is important to consider when assessing the likelihood of such events in current and future climate simulations so that we can assess the plausibility of their future projections.
Franziska Teubler, Michael Riemer, Christopher Polster, Christian M. Grams, Seraphine Hauser, and Volkmar Wirth
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 265–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-265-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-265-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Weather regimes govern an important part of the sub-seasonal variability of the mid-latitude circulation. The year-round dynamics of blocked regimes in the Atlantic European region are investigated in over 40 years of data. We show that the dynamics between the regimes are on average very similar. Within the regimes, the main variability – starting from the characteristics of dynamical processes alone – dominates and transcends the variability in season and types of transitions.
Antonio Segalini, Jacopo Riboldi, Volkmar Wirth, and Gabriele Messori
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-316, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-316, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Planetary Rossby waves are created by topography and evolve in time. In this work, an analytical solution of this classical problem is proposed under the approximation of linear wave dynamics. The theory is able to describe reasonably well the evolution of the perturbation and compares well with full nonlinear simulations. Several relevant cases with single and double zonal jets are assessed with the theoretical framework
Alexander Scherrmann, Heini Wernli, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 157–173, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-157-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the dynamical origin of the lower-atmospheric potential vorticity (PV; linked to the intensity of cyclones) in Mediterranean cyclones. We quantify the contribution of the cyclone and the environment by tracing PV backward in time and space and linking it to the track of the cyclone. We find that the lower-tropospheric PV is produced shortly before the cyclone's stage of highest intensity. We investigate the driving processes and use a global dataset and a process-resolving one.
Felix Jäger, Philip Rupp, and Thomas Birner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 49–60, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-49-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-49-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mid-latitude weather is dominated by the growth, breaking and decay of baroclinic waves and associated jet shifts. A way to study this process is via idealised life-cycle simulations, which are often classified as LC1 (anticyclonic breaking, poleward shift) or LC2 (cyclonic breaking, equatorward shift), depending on details of the initial state. We show that all systems exhibit predominantly anticyclonic character and poleward net shifts if multiple wave modes are allowed to grow simultaneously.
Philipp Breul, Paulo Ceppi, and Theodore G. Shepherd
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 39–47, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-39-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-39-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Accurately predicting the response of the midlatitude jet stream to climate change is very important, but models show a variety of possible scenarios. Previous work identified a relationship between climatological jet latitude and future jet shift in the southern hemispheric winter. We show that the relationship does not hold in separate sectors and propose that zonal asymmetries are the ultimate cause in the zonal mean. This questions the usefulness of the relationship.
Patrick Johannes Stoll, Rune Grand Graversen, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The atmosphere is in motion and hereby transporting warm, cold, moist, and dry air to different climate zones. In this study, we investigate how this transport of energy organises in different manners. Outside the tropics, atmospheric waves of sizes between 2000 and 8000 km, which we perceive as cyclones from the surface, transport most of the energy and moisture poleward. In the winter, large-scale weather situations become very important for transporting energy into the polar regions.
Lisa Schielicke and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1439–1459, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1439-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1439-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Projected future heatwaves in many European regions will be even warmer than the mean increase in summer temperature suggests. To identify the underlying thermodynamic and dynamic processes, we compare Lagrangian backward trajectories of airstreams associated with heatwaves in two time slices (1991–2000 and 2091–2100) in a large single-model ensemble (CEMS-LE). We find stronger future descent associated with adiabatic warming in some regions and increased future diabatic heating in most regions.
Iana Strigunova, Richard Blender, Frank Lunkeit, and Nedjeljka Žagar
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1399–1414, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1399-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1399-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We show that the Eurasian heat waves (HWs) have signatures in the global circulation. We present changes in the probability density functions (PDFs) of energy anomalies in the zonal-mean state and in the Rossby waves at different zonal scales in relation to the changes in intramonthly variability. The skewness of the PDF of planetary-scale Rossby waves is shown to increase during HWs, while their intramonthly variability is reduced, a process referred to as blocking.
Anubhav Choudhary and Aiko Voigt
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1199–1214, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1199-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1199-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The warm conveyor belt (WCB), which is a stream of coherently rising air parcels, is an important feature of extratropical cyclones. This work presents the impact of model grid spacing on simulation of cloud diabatic processes in the WCB of a North Atlantic cyclone. We find that the refinement of the model grid systematically enhances the dynamical properties and heat releasing processes within the WCB. However, this pattern does not have a strong impact on the strength of associated cyclones.
S. Mubashshir Ali, Matthias Röthlisberger, Tess Parker, Kai Kornhuber, and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1139–1156, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1139-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1139-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Persistent weather can lead to extreme weather conditions. One such atmospheric flow pattern, termed recurrent Rossby wave packets (RRWPs), has been shown to increase persistent weather in the Northern Hemisphere. Here, we show that RRWPs are also an important feature in the Southern Hemisphere. We evaluate the role of RRWPs during south-eastern Australian heatwaves and find that they help to persist the heatwaves by forming upper-level high-pressure systems over south-eastern Australia.
Lea Eisenstein, Benedikt Schulz, Ghulam A. Qadir, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Peter Knippertz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1157–1182, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1157-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1157-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Mesoscale high-wind features within extratropical cyclones can cause immense damage. Here, we present RAMEFI, a novel approach to objectively identify the wind features based on a probabilistic random forest. RAMEFI enables a wide range of applications such as probabilistic predictions for the occurrence or a multi-decadal climatology of these features, which will be the focus of Part 2 of the study, with the goal of improving wind and, specifically, wind gust forecasts in the long run.
Lukas Jansing, Lukas Papritz, Bruno Dürr, Daniel Gerstgrasser, and Michael Sprenger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1113–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1113-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1113-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a 5-year climatology of three main foehn types and three deep-foehn subtypes. The main types differ in their large-scale and Alpine-scale weather conditions and the subtypes in terms of the amount and extent of precipitation on the Alpine south side. The different types of foehn are found to strongly affect the local meteorological conditions at Altdorf. The study concludes by setting the new classification into a historic context.
Valerio Lembo, Federico Fabiano, Vera Melinda Galfi, Rune Grand Graversen, Valerio Lucarini, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1037–1062, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1037-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1037-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Eddies in mid-latitudes characterize the exchange of heat between the tropics and the poles. This exchange is largely uneven, with a few extreme events bearing most of the heat transported across latitudes in a season. It is thus important to understand what the dynamical mechanisms are behind these events. Here, we identify recurrent weather regime patterns associated with extreme transports, and we identify scales of mid-latitudinal eddies that are mostly responsible for the transport.
Fei Luo, Frank Selten, Kathrin Wehrli, Kai Kornhuber, Philippe Le Sager, Wilhelm May, Thomas Reerink, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Hideo Shiogama, Daisuke Tokuda, Hyungjun Kim, and Dim Coumou
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 905–935, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-905-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-905-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Recent studies have identified the weather systems in observational data, where wave patterns with high-magnitude values that circle around the whole globe in either wavenumber 5 or wavenumber 7 are responsible for the extreme events. In conclusion, we find that the climate models are able to reproduce the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns as well as their associated surface variables such as temperature, precipitation, and sea level pressure.
Meryl Wimmer, Gwendal Rivière, Philippe Arbogast, Jean-Marcel Piriou, Julien Delanoë, Carole Labadie, Quitterie Cazenave, and Jacques Pelon
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 863–882, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-863-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-863-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of deep convection representation on the jet stream above the cold front of an extratropical cyclone is investigated in the global numerical weather prediction model ARPEGE. Two simulations using different deep convection schemes are compared with (re)analysis datasets and NAWDEX airborne observations. A deeper jet stream is observed with the less active scheme. The diabatic origin of this difference is interpreted by backward Lagrangian trajectories and potential vorticity budgets.
Matthias Röthlisberger, Barbara Scherrer, Andries Jan de Vries, and Raphael Portmann
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 733–754, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-733-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-733-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We examine the palette of synoptic storylines accompanying unusually long wet spells in Europe. Thereby, we identify a hitherto not documented mechanism for generating long wet spells which involves recurrent Rossby wave breaking and subsequent cutoff replenishment. Understanding the synoptic processes behind long wet spells is relevant in light of projected changes in wet spell characteristics as it is a prerequisite for evaluating climate models with regard to such events.
Paolo Davini, Federico Fabiano, and Irina Sandu
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 535–553, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-535-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-535-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In climate models, improvements obtained in the winter mid-latitude circulation following horizontal resolution increase are mainly caused by the more detailed representation of the mean orography. A high-resolution climate model with low-resolution orography might underperform compared to a low-resolution model with low-resolution orography. The absence of proper model tuning at high resolution is considered the potential reason behind such lack of improvements.
Joshua Dorrington, Kristian Strommen, and Federico Fabiano
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 505–533, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-505-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-505-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate how well current state-of-the-art climate models reproduce the wintertime weather of the North Atlantic and western Europe by studying how well different "regimes" of weather are captured. Historically, models have struggled to capture these regimes, making it hard to predict future changes in wintertime extreme weather. We show models can capture regimes if the right method is used, but they show biases, partially as a result of biases in jet speed and eddy strength.
Jacopo Riboldi, Efi Rousi, Fabio D'Andrea, Gwendal Rivière, and François Lott
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 449–469, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-449-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-449-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A revisited space and time spectral decomposition allows us to determine which harmonics dominate the upper-tropospheric flow evolution over a given time period as well as their propagation. This approach is used to identify Rossby wave patterns with a circumglobal extent, affecting weather evolution over different Northern Hemisphere regions. The results cast light on the processes originating and supporting these wave patterns, advocating at the same time for the usefulness of the technique.
Cited articles
Abram, N. J., Wright, N. M., Ellis, B., Dixon, B. C., Wurtzel, J. B.,
England, M. H., Ummenhofer, C. C., Philibosian, B., Cahyarini, S. Y., Yu, T.
L., Shen, C. C., Cheng, H., Edwards, R. L., and Heslop, D.: Coupling of
Indo-Pacific climate variability over the last millennium, Nature, 579,
385–392, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2084-4, 2020.
Alexander, L. V., Bador, M., Roca, R., Contractor, S., Donat, M., and
Nguyen, P. L.: Intercomparison of annual precipitation indices and extremes
over global land areas from in situ, space-based and reanalysis products,
Environ. Res. Lett. 15, 055002,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab79e2, 2020.
al Fahad, A., Burls, N. J., and Strasberg, Z.: How will southern hemisphere
subtropical anticyclones respond to global warming? Mechanisms and
seasonality in CMIP5 and CMIP6 model projections, Clim. Dynam., 55, 703–718,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05290-7, 2020.
Berry, G., Jakob, C., and Reeder, M.: Recent global trends in atmospheric
fronts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L21812, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL049481,
2011.
Biard, J. C. and Kunkel, K. E.: Automated detection of weather fronts using
a deep learning neural network, Adv. Stat. Climatol. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 5,
147–160, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-5-147-2019, 2019.
Bitsa, E., Flocas, H. A., Kouroutzoglou, J., Galanis, G., Hatzaki, M.,
Latsas, G., Rudeva, I., and Simmonds, I.: A Mediterranean cold front
identification scheme combining wind and thermal criteria, Int. J.
Climatol., 41, 6497–6510, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7208, 2021.
Blázquez, J. and Solman, S. A.: Relationship between projected changes
in precipitation and fronts in the austral winter of the Southern Hemisphere
from a suite of CMIP5 models, Clim. Dynam., 52, 5849–5860,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4482-y, 2019.
Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO: State of the Climate 2020, http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/2020/ (last access: 1 June 2022), 2020.
Burls, N. J., Blamey, R. C., Cash, B. A., Swenson, E. T., al Fahad, A.,
Bopape, M. J. M., Straus, D. M., and Reason, C. J. C.: The Cape Town “Day
Zero” drought and Hadley cell expansion, npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 2, 1–8,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-019-0084-6, 2019.
Cai, W., van Rensch, P., Cowan, T., and Hendon, H. H.: Teleconnection
Pathways of ENSO and the IOD and the Mechanisms for Impacts on Australian
Rainfall, J. Climate, 24, 3910–3923, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4129.1,
2011.
Campitelli, E., Díaz, L. B., and Vera, C.: Assessment of zonally
symmetric and asymmetric components of the Southern Annular Mode using a
novel approach, Clim. Dynam., 58, 161–178,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05896-5, 2021.
Catto, J. L. and Pfahl, S.: The importance of fronts for extreme
precipitation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 10791–10801,
https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50852, 2013.
Catto, J. L., Jakob, C., Berry, G., and Nicholls, N.: Relating global
precipitation to atmospheric fronts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L10805,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051736, 2012.
Catto, J. L., Nicholls, N., Jakob, C., and Shelton, K. L.: Atmospheric
fronts in current and future climates, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 7642–7650,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061943, 2014.
Chemke, R., Ming, Y., and Yuval, J.: The intensification of winter mid-latitude storm tracks in the Southern Hemisphere, Nat. Clim. Change, 12, 553–557, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01368-8, 2022.
DELWP: Victoria's water in a changing climate: Insights from the Victorian
Water and Climate Initiative, 97 pp., https://www.water.vic.gov.au/climate-change/research/vicwaci/new-findings (last access: 1 June 2022), 2020.
de Vries, A. J.: A global climatological perspective on the importance of Rossby wave breaking and intense moisture transport for extreme precipitation events, Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 129–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-129-2021, 2021.
Dowdy, A. J. and Catto, J. L.: Extreme weather caused by concurrent cyclone,
front and thunderstorm occurrences, Sci. Rep.-UK, 7, srep40359,
https://doi.org/10.1038/srep40359, 2017.
Fogt, R. L. and Marshall, G. J.: The Southern Annular Mode: Variability,
trends, and climate impacts across the Southern Hemisphere, Wiley
Interdiscip. Rev. Clim. Chang., 11, 1–24, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.652,
2020.
Fu, G., Chiew, F. H., Zheng, H., Robertson, D. E., Potter, N. J., Teng, J.,
Post, D. A., Charles, S. P., and Zhang, L.: Statistical analysis of
attributions of climatic characteristics to nonstationary
rainfall-streamflow relationship, J. Hydrol., 603, 127017,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127017, 2021.
Goyal, R., Jucker, M., Sen Gupta, A., and England, M. H.: A new zonal wave 3
index for the Southern Hemisphere, J. Climate, 35, 5137–5149,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0927.1, 2022.
Hawcroft, M. K., Shaffrey, L. C., Hodges, K. I., and Dacre, H. F.: How much
Northern Hemisphere precipitation is associated with extratropical
cyclones?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L24809,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053866, 2012.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Biavati, G., Horányi, A., Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Dee, D., and Thépaut, J.-N.: ERA5 hourly data on pressure levels from 1959 to present, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.bd0915c6, 2018.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A.,
Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D.,
Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P.,
Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D.,
Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer,
A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková,
M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., Rosnay, P.,
Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.: The ERA5 Global
Reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803,
2020.
Holgate, C. M., Evans, J. P., van Dijk, A. I. J. M., Pitman, A. J., and Di
Virgilio, G.: Australian precipitation recycling and evaporative source
regions, J. Climate, 33, 8721–8735, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-0926.1, 2020.
Hope, P., Keay, K., Pook, M., Catto, J., Simmonds, I., Mills, G., McIntosh,
P., Risbey, J., and Berry, G.: A Comparison of Automated Methods of Front
Recognition for Climate Studies: A Case Study in Southwest Western
Australia, Mon. Weather Rev., 142, 343–363,
https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00252.1, 2014.
Hope, P. K., Drosdowsky, W., and Nicholls, N.: Shifts in the synoptic
systems influencing southwest Western Australia, Clim. Dynam., 26, 751–764,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0115-y, 2006.
Lang, F., Huang, Y., Siems, S. T., and Manton, M. J.: Characteristics of the
Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer Over the Southern Ocean in Response to the
Synoptic Forcing, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 123, 7799–7820,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD028700, 2018.
Lavers, D. A., Simmons, A., Vamborg, F., and Rodwell, M. J.: An evaluation
of ERA5 precipitation for climate monitoring, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 148,
3152–3165, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4351, 2022.
Lawrence, L., Parfitt, R., and Ummenhofer, C. C.: The role of atmospheric
fronts in austral winter precipitation changes across Australia, Atmos. Sci.
Lett., 23, e1117, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1117, 2022.
Lee, J.-Y., Marotzke, J., Bala, G., Cao, L., Corti, S., Dunne, J. P., Engelbrecht, F., Fischer, E., Fyfe, J. C., Jones, C., Maycock, A., Mutemi, J., Ndiaye, O., Panickal, S., and Zhou, T.: Future Global Climate: Scenario-Based Projections and Near-Term Information, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 553–672, 2021.
Maher, P., Kelleher, M. E., Sansom, P. G., and Methven, J.: Is the
subtropical jet shifting poleward?, Clim. Dynam., 54, 1741–1759,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-05084-6, 2019.
Mahlalela, P. T., Blamey, R. C., and Reason, C. J. C.: Mechanisms behind
early winter rainfall variability in the southwestern Cape, South Africa,
Clim. Dynam., 53, 21–39, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4571-y, 2019.
Narsey, S., Reeder, M. J., Ackerley, D., and Jakob, C.: A midlatitude
influence on Australian monsoon bursts, J. Climate, 30, 5377–5393,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0686.1, 2017.
Osbrough, S. L. and Frederiksen, J. S.: Interdecadal changes in Southern
Hemisphere winter explosive storms and Southern Australian rainfall, Clim.
Dynam., 56, 3103–3130, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05633-y, 2021.
Papritz, L., Pfahl, S., Rudeva, I., Simmonds, I., Sodemann, H., and Wernli,
H.: The Role of Extratropical Cyclones and Fronts for Southern Ocean
Freshwater Fluxes, J. Climate, 27, 6205–6224,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00409.1, 2014.
Pepler, A.: Australian region cyclones, 1950–2019, figshare [data set],
https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.4944135.v1, 2020a.
Pepler, A.: Record Lack of Cyclones in Southern Australia During 2019,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL088488, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088488, 2020b.
Pepler, A.: Merged fronts for Australian subregions, figshare [data set], https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.20453325.v1, 2022.
Pepler, A., Timbal, B., Rakich, C., and Coutts-Smith, A.: Indian ocean
dipole overrides ENSO's influence on cool season rainfall across the Eastern
seaboard of Australia, J. Climate, 27, 3816–3826,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00554.1, 2014.
Pepler, A. S., Dowdy, A. J., van Rensch, P., Rudeva, I., Catto, J. L., and
Hope, P.: The contributions of fronts, lows and thunderstorms to southern
Australian rainfall, Clim. Dynam., 55, 1489–1505,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05338-8, 2020.
Pepler, A. S., Dowdy, A. J., and Hope, P.: The differing role of weather
systems in southern Australian rainfall between 1979–1996 and 1997–2015, Clim. Dynam., 56, 2289–2302, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05588-6,
2021.
Peterson, T. J., Saft, M., Peel, M. C., and John, A.: Watersheds may not
recover from drought, Science, 372, 745–749,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abd5085, 2021.
Portmann, R., Sprenger, M., and Wernli, H.: The three-dimensional life
cycles of potential vorticity cutoffs: a global and selected regional
climatologies in ERA-Interim (1979–2018), Weather Clim. Dyn., 2, 507–534,
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-507-2021, 2021.
Rasmussen, K. L., Prein, A. F., Rasmussen, R. M., Ikeda, K., and Liu, C.:
Changes in the convective population and thermodynamic environments in
convection-permitting regional climate simulations over the United States,
Clim. Dynam., 55, 383–408, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-4000-7, 2020.
Rauniyar, S. P. and Power, S. B.: The impact of anthropogenic forcing and
natural processes on past, present and future rainfall over Victoria,
Australia, J. Climate, 33, 8087–8106,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0759.1, 2020.
Reid, K. J., Simmonds, I., Vincent, C. L., and King, A. D.: The Australian
Northwest Cloudband: Climatology, Mechanisms and Association with
Precipitation, J. Climate, 32, 1–48,
https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-0031.1, 2019.
Reid, K. J., King, A. D., Lane, T. P., and Hudson, D.: Tropical, Subtropical
and Extratropical Atmospheric Rivers in the Australian Region, J. Climate, 35, 2697–2708, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0606.1, 2022.
Risbey, J. S., Pook, M. J., and McIntosh, P. C.: Spatial trends in synoptic
rainfall in southern Australia, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 3781–3785,
https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50739, 2013a.
Risbey, J. S., Mcintosh, P. C., and Pook, M. J.: Synoptic components of
rainfall variability and trends in southeast Australia, Int. J. Climatol.,
33, 2459–2472, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3597, 2013b.
Rudeva, I. and Simmonds, I.: Variability and trends of global atmospheric
frontal activity and links with large-scale modes of variability, J. Climate,
28, 3311–3330, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00458.1, 2015.
Saji, N. H., Goswami, B. N., Vinayachandran, P. N., and Yamagata, T.: A
dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean, Nature, 401, 360–363,
https://doi.org/10.1038/43854, 1999.
Schemm, S., Rudeva, I., and Simmonds, I.: Extratropical fronts in the lower
troposphere–global perspectives obtained from two automated methods, Q. J.
Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 1686–1698, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2471, 2015.
Simmonds, I., Keay, K., and Bye, J. A. T.: Identification and climatology of
Southern Hemisphere mobile fronts in a modern reanalysis, J. Climate, 25,
1945–1962, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00100.1, 2012.
Simmons, A. J.: Trends in the tropospheric general circulation from 1979 to 2022, Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 777–809, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-777-2022, 2022.
Solari, F. I., Blázquez, J., and Solman, S. A.: Relationship between
frontal systems and extreme precipitation over southern South America, Int.
J. Climatol., 42, 7535–7549, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7663, 2022.
Solman, S. A. and Orlanski, I.: Poleward Shift and Change of Frontal
Activity in the Southern Hemisphere over the Last 40 Years, J. Atmos. Sci.,
71, 539–552, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-13-0105.1, 2014.
Soster, F. and Parfitt, R.: On Objective Identification of Atmospheric
Fronts and Frontal Precipitation in Reanalysis Datasets, J. Climate, 35, 4513–4534,
https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-21-0596.1, 2022.
Sousa, P. M., Blamey, R. C., Reason, C. J. C., Ramos, A. M., and Trigo, R.
M.: The “Day Zero” Cape Town drought and the poleward migration of moisture
corridors, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 124025,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaebc7, 2018.
Thomas, C. M. and Schultz, D. M.: What are the Best Thermodynamic Quantity
and Function to Define a Front in Gridded Model Output?, B. Am. Meteorol.
Soc., 100, 873–896, https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-18-0137.1, 2019.
Timbal, B. and Drosdowsky, W.: The relationship between the decline of
Southeastern Australian rainfall and the strengthening of the subtropical
ridge, Int. J. Climatol., 33, 1021–1034, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3492,
2013.
Troup, A. J.: The “southern oscillation”, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 91,
490–506, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49709139009, 1965.
Utsumi, N., Kim, H., Kanae, S., and Oki, T.: Which weather systems are
projected to cause future changes in mean and extreme precipitation in CMIP5
simulations?, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 10522–10537,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD024939, 2016.
Utsumi, N., Kim, H., Kanae, S., and Oki, T.: Relative contributions of
weather systems to mean and extreme global precipitation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 122, 152–167, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025222, 2017.
Van Dijk, A. I. J. M., Beck, H. E., Crosbie, R. S., De Jeu, R. A. M., Liu,
Y. Y., Podger, G. M., Timbal, B., and Viney, N. R.: The Millennium Drought
in southeast Australia (2001–2009): Natural and human causes and
implications for water resources, ecosystems, economy, and society, Water
Resour. Res., 49, 1040–1057, https://doi.org/10.1002/wrcr.20123, 2013.
Short summary
In recent decades, cold fronts have rained less often in southeast Australia, which contributes to decreasing cool season rainfall. The largest changes in front dynamics are found to the north of the area where rain changes. Wet fronts have strong westerly winds that reach much further north than dry fronts do, and these fronts are becoming less common, linked to weakening subtropical winds and changes in the Southern Hemisphere circulation.
In recent decades, cold fronts have rained less often in southeast Australia, which contributes...
