Articles | Volume 3, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
06 Jan 2022
Research article |
| 06 Jan 2022
| 06 Jan 2022
Moisture origin, transport pathways, and driving processes of intense wintertime moisture transport into the Arctic
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
David Hauswirth
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Katharina Hartmuth
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Related authors
Marc Federer, Lukas Papritz, Michael Sprenger, and Christian M. Grams
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2112, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2112, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Although extratropical cyclones in the North Atlantic are among the most impactful midlatitude weather systems, the potential for their growth on synoptic scales is not well understood. Here we show how they convert potential into kinetic energy through the descent of cold upper-tropospheric air from high latitudes. Surface processes, such as ocean heat exchange, have a smaller effect. Understanding these dynamics helps to explain the processes that maintain storm tracks.
Katharina Hartmuth, Heini Wernli, and Lukas Papritz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-878, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-878, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we use large-ensemble climate model simulations to analyze extreme winters in the Barents Sea in a changing climate. We find that variability in both atmospheric processes and sea ice conditions determines the formation of such seasons in the present-day climate. The reduction in sea ice variability results in a decreasing importance of surface boundary conditions in a warmer climate, while the robust link shown for surface weather systems persists.
Lukas Jansing, Lukas Papritz, and Michael Sprenger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 463–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-463-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-463-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using an innovative approach, the descent of foehn is diagnosed from a Lagrangian perspective based on 15 kilometer-scale simulations combined with online trajectories. The descent is confined to distinct hotspots in the immediate lee of local mountain peaks and chains. Two detailed case studies reveal a varying wave regime to be associated with the descent. Furthermore, additional controlling factors, such as the diurnal cycle, likewise influence the descent activity.
Belinda Hotz, Lukas Papritz, and Matthias Röthlisberger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 323–343, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-323-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-323-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Analysing the vertical structure of temperature anomalies of recent record-breaking heatwaves reveals a complex four-dimensional interplay of anticyclone–heatwave interactions, with vertically strongly varying advective, adiabatic, and diabatic contributions to the respective temperature anomalies. The heatwaves featured bottom-heavy positive temperature anomalies, extending throughout the troposphere.
Marta Wenta, Christian M. Grams, Lukas Papritz, and Marc Federer
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 181–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-181-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-181-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study links air–sea interactions over the Gulf Stream to an atmospheric block in February 2019. We found that over 23 % of air masses that were lifted into the block by cyclones interacted with the Gulf Stream. As cyclones pass over the Gulf Stream, they cause intense surface evaporation events, preconditioning the environment for the development of cyclones. This implies that air–sea interactions over the Gulf Stream affect the large-scale dynamics in the North Atlantic–European region.
Tiina Nygård, Lukas Papritz, Tuomas Naakka, and Timo Vihma
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 943–961, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-943-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-943-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the general warming trend, wintertime cold-air outbreaks in Europe have remained nearly as extreme and as common as decades ago. In this study, we identify six principal cold anomaly types over Europe in 1979–2020. We show the origins of various physical processes and their contributions to the formation of cold wintertime air masses.
Lukas Jansing, Lukas Papritz, Bruno Dürr, Daniel Gerstgrasser, and Michael Sprenger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1113–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1113-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1113-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a 5-year climatology of three main foehn types and three deep-foehn subtypes. The main types differ in their large-scale and Alpine-scale weather conditions and the subtypes in terms of the amount and extent of precipitation on the Alpine south side. The different types of foehn are found to strongly affect the local meteorological conditions at Altdorf. The study concludes by setting the new classification into a historic context.
Sebastian Schemm, Lukas Papritz, and Gwendal Rivière
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 601–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-601-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-601-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Much of the change in our daily weather patterns is due to the development and intensification of extratropical cyclones. The response of these systems to climate change is an important topic of ongoing research. This study is the first to reproduce the changes in the North Atlantic circulation and extratropical cyclone characteristics found in fully coupled Earth system models under high-CO2 scenarios, but in an idealized, reduced-complexity simulation with uniform warming.
Katharina Hartmuth, Maxi Boettcher, Heini Wernli, and Lukas Papritz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 89–111, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-89-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-89-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we introduce a novel method to objectively define and identify extreme Arctic seasons based on different surface variables. We find that such seasons are resulting from various combinations of unusual seasonal conditions. The occurrence or absence of different atmospheric processes strongly affects the character of extreme Arctic seasons. Further, changes in sea ice and sea surface temperature can strongly influence the formation of such a season in distinct regions.
Sonja Murto, Rodrigo Caballero, Gunilla Svensson, and Lukas Papritz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 21–44, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-21-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-21-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses reanalysis data to investigate the role of atmospheric blocking, prevailing high-pressure systems and mid-latitude cyclones in driving high-Arctic wintertime warm extreme events. These events are mainly preceded by Ural and Scandinavian blocks, which are shown to be significantly influenced and amplified by cyclones in the North Atlantic. It also highlights processes that need to be well captured in climate models for improving their representation of Arctic wintertime climate.
Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Iuliia Polkova, Lukas Papritz, Paolo Ruggieri, Martin P. King, Panos J. Athanasiadis, Johanna Baehr, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 541–553, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-541-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-541-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the stratospheric influence on marine cold air outbreaks (MCAOs) in the North Atlantic using ERA-Interim reanalysis data. MCAOs are associated with severe Arctic weather, such as polar lows and strong surface winds. Sudden stratospheric events are found to be associated with more frequent MCAOs in the Barents and the Norwegian seas, affected by the anomalous circulation over Greenland and Scandinavia. Identification of MCAO precursors is crucial for improved long-range prediction.
Mauro Hermann, Lukas Papritz, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 497–518, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-497-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-497-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We find, by tracing backward in time, that air masses causing extensive melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet originate from further south and lower altitudes than usual. Their exceptional warmth further arises due to ascent and cloud formation, which is special compared to near-surface heat waves in the midlatitudes or the central Arctic. The atmospheric systems and transport pathways identified here are crucial in understanding and simulating the atmospheric control of the ice sheet in the future.
Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Christian M. Grams, and Lukas Papritz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 373–388, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-373-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-373-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We cannot currently predict the weather over Europe beyond 2 weeks. The stratosphere provides a promising opportunity to go beyond that limit by providing a change in probability of certain weather regimes at the surface. However, not all stratospheric extreme events are followed by the same surface weather evolution. We show that this weather evolution is related to the tropospheric weather regime around the onset of the stratospheric extreme event for many stratospheric events.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Stavros Dafis, Silvio Davolio, Davide Faranda, Christian Ferrarin, Katharina Hartmuth, Assaf Hochman, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Samira Khodayar, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Florian Pantillon, Platon Patlakas, Michael Sprenger, and Iris Thurnherr
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2809, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2809, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
Short summary
Short summary
Storm Daniel (2023) is one of the most catastrophic ones ever documented in the Mediterranean. Our results highlight the different dynamics and therefore the different predictability skill of precipitation, its extremes and impacts that have been produced in Greece and Libya, the two most affected countries. Our approach concerns a holistic analysis of the storm by articulating dynamics, weather prediction, hydrological and oceanographic implications, climate extremes and attribution theory.
Marc Federer, Lukas Papritz, Michael Sprenger, and Christian M. Grams
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2112, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2112, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Although extratropical cyclones in the North Atlantic are among the most impactful midlatitude weather systems, the potential for their growth on synoptic scales is not well understood. Here we show how they convert potential into kinetic energy through the descent of cold upper-tropospheric air from high latitudes. Surface processes, such as ocean heat exchange, have a smaller effect. Understanding these dynamics helps to explain the processes that maintain storm tracks.
Katharina Hartmuth, Heini Wernli, and Lukas Papritz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-878, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-878, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we use large-ensemble climate model simulations to analyze extreme winters in the Barents Sea in a changing climate. We find that variability in both atmospheric processes and sea ice conditions determines the formation of such seasons in the present-day climate. The reduction in sea ice variability results in a decreasing importance of surface boundary conditions in a warmer climate, while the robust link shown for surface weather systems persists.
Lukas Jansing, Lukas Papritz, and Michael Sprenger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 463–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-463-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-463-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using an innovative approach, the descent of foehn is diagnosed from a Lagrangian perspective based on 15 kilometer-scale simulations combined with online trajectories. The descent is confined to distinct hotspots in the immediate lee of local mountain peaks and chains. Two detailed case studies reveal a varying wave regime to be associated with the descent. Furthermore, additional controlling factors, such as the diurnal cycle, likewise influence the descent activity.
Belinda Hotz, Lukas Papritz, and Matthias Röthlisberger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 323–343, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-323-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-323-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Analysing the vertical structure of temperature anomalies of recent record-breaking heatwaves reveals a complex four-dimensional interplay of anticyclone–heatwave interactions, with vertically strongly varying advective, adiabatic, and diabatic contributions to the respective temperature anomalies. The heatwaves featured bottom-heavy positive temperature anomalies, extending throughout the troposphere.
Marta Wenta, Christian M. Grams, Lukas Papritz, and Marc Federer
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 181–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-181-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-181-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study links air–sea interactions over the Gulf Stream to an atmospheric block in February 2019. We found that over 23 % of air masses that were lifted into the block by cyclones interacted with the Gulf Stream. As cyclones pass over the Gulf Stream, they cause intense surface evaporation events, preconditioning the environment for the development of cyclones. This implies that air–sea interactions over the Gulf Stream affect the large-scale dynamics in the North Atlantic–European region.
Tiina Nygård, Lukas Papritz, Tuomas Naakka, and Timo Vihma
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 943–961, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-943-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-943-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the general warming trend, wintertime cold-air outbreaks in Europe have remained nearly as extreme and as common as decades ago. In this study, we identify six principal cold anomaly types over Europe in 1979–2020. We show the origins of various physical processes and their contributions to the formation of cold wintertime air masses.
Lukas Jansing, Lukas Papritz, Bruno Dürr, Daniel Gerstgrasser, and Michael Sprenger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1113–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1113-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1113-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a 5-year climatology of three main foehn types and three deep-foehn subtypes. The main types differ in their large-scale and Alpine-scale weather conditions and the subtypes in terms of the amount and extent of precipitation on the Alpine south side. The different types of foehn are found to strongly affect the local meteorological conditions at Altdorf. The study concludes by setting the new classification into a historic context.
Sebastian Schemm, Lukas Papritz, and Gwendal Rivière
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 601–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-601-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-601-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Much of the change in our daily weather patterns is due to the development and intensification of extratropical cyclones. The response of these systems to climate change is an important topic of ongoing research. This study is the first to reproduce the changes in the North Atlantic circulation and extratropical cyclone characteristics found in fully coupled Earth system models under high-CO2 scenarios, but in an idealized, reduced-complexity simulation with uniform warming.
Katharina Hartmuth, Maxi Boettcher, Heini Wernli, and Lukas Papritz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 89–111, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-89-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-89-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we introduce a novel method to objectively define and identify extreme Arctic seasons based on different surface variables. We find that such seasons are resulting from various combinations of unusual seasonal conditions. The occurrence or absence of different atmospheric processes strongly affects the character of extreme Arctic seasons. Further, changes in sea ice and sea surface temperature can strongly influence the formation of such a season in distinct regions.
Sonja Murto, Rodrigo Caballero, Gunilla Svensson, and Lukas Papritz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 21–44, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-21-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-21-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses reanalysis data to investigate the role of atmospheric blocking, prevailing high-pressure systems and mid-latitude cyclones in driving high-Arctic wintertime warm extreme events. These events are mainly preceded by Ural and Scandinavian blocks, which are shown to be significantly influenced and amplified by cyclones in the North Atlantic. It also highlights processes that need to be well captured in climate models for improving their representation of Arctic wintertime climate.
Iris Thurnherr, Katharina Hartmuth, Lukas Jansing, Josué Gehring, Maxi Boettcher, Irina Gorodetskaya, Martin Werner, Heini Wernli, and Franziska Aemisegger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 331–357, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-331-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-331-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Extratropical cyclones are important for the transport of moisture from low to high latitudes. In this study, we investigate how the isotopic composition of water vapour is affected by horizontal temperature advection associated with extratropical cyclones using measurements and modelling. It is shown that air–sea moisture fluxes induced by this horizontal temperature advection lead to the strong variability observed in the isotopic composition of water vapour in the marine boundary layer.
Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Iuliia Polkova, Lukas Papritz, Paolo Ruggieri, Martin P. King, Panos J. Athanasiadis, Johanna Baehr, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 541–553, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-541-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-541-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the stratospheric influence on marine cold air outbreaks (MCAOs) in the North Atlantic using ERA-Interim reanalysis data. MCAOs are associated with severe Arctic weather, such as polar lows and strong surface winds. Sudden stratospheric events are found to be associated with more frequent MCAOs in the Barents and the Norwegian seas, affected by the anomalous circulation over Greenland and Scandinavia. Identification of MCAO precursors is crucial for improved long-range prediction.
Mauro Hermann, Lukas Papritz, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 497–518, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-497-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-497-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We find, by tracing backward in time, that air masses causing extensive melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet originate from further south and lower altitudes than usual. Their exceptional warmth further arises due to ascent and cloud formation, which is special compared to near-surface heat waves in the midlatitudes or the central Arctic. The atmospheric systems and transport pathways identified here are crucial in understanding and simulating the atmospheric control of the ice sheet in the future.
Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Christian M. Grams, and Lukas Papritz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 373–388, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-373-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-373-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We cannot currently predict the weather over Europe beyond 2 weeks. The stratosphere provides a promising opportunity to go beyond that limit by providing a change in probability of certain weather regimes at the surface. However, not all stratospheric extreme events are followed by the same surface weather evolution. We show that this weather evolution is related to the tropospheric weather regime around the onset of the stratospheric extreme event for many stratospheric events.
Related subject area
Dynamical processes in polar regions, incl. polar–midlatitude interactions
Arctic climate response to European radiative forcing: a deep learning study on circulation pattern changes
Using variable-resolution grids to model precipitation from atmospheric rivers around the Greenland ice sheet
Circulation responses to surface heating and implications for polar amplification
The study of the impact of polar warming on global atmospheric circulation and mid-latitude baroclinic waves using a laboratory analog
A comparison of the atmospheric response to the Weddell Sea Polynya in atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) of varying resolutions
Simultaneous Bering Sea and Labrador Sea ice melt extremes in March 2023: A confluence of meteorological events aligned with stratosphere-troposphere interactions
European summer weather linked to North Atlantic freshwater anomalies in preceding years
On the linkage between future Arctic sea ice retreat, Euro-Atlantic circulation regimes and temperature extremes over Europe
The role of boundary layer processes in summer-time Arctic cyclones
Reconciling conflicting evidence for the cause of the observed early 21st century Eurasian cooling
The role of Rossby waves in polar weather and climate
Reanalysis representation of low-level winds in the Antarctic near-coastal region
The composite development and structure of intense synoptic-scale Arctic cyclones
Improved teleconnection between Arctic sea ice and the North Atlantic Oscillation through stochastic process representation
Jet stream variability in a polar warming scenario – a laboratory perspective
Pacific Decadal Oscillation modulates the Arctic sea-ice loss influence on the midlatitude atmospheric circulation in winter
Summertime changes in climate extremes over the peripheral Arctic regions after a sudden sea ice retreat
A global climatology of polar lows investigated for local differences and wind-shear environments
Characteristics of long-track tropopause polar vortices
Identification, characteristics and dynamics of Arctic extreme seasons
Interaction between Atlantic cyclones and Eurasian atmospheric blocking drives wintertime warm extremes in the high Arctic
The role of tropopause polar vortices in the intensification of summer Arctic cyclones
Dynamical and surface impacts of the January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming in novel Aeolus wind observations, MLS and ERA5
Dynamical drivers of Greenland blocking in climate models
Interactive 3-D visual analysis of ERA5 data: improving diagnostic indices for marine cold air outbreaks and polar lows
Polar lows – moist-baroclinic cyclones developing in four different vertical wind shear environments
Lagrangian detection of precipitation moisture sources for an arid region in northeast Greenland: relations to the North Atlantic Oscillation, sea ice cover, and temporal trends from 1979 to 2017
Stratospheric influence on North Atlantic marine cold air outbreaks following sudden stratospheric warming events
A Lagrangian analysis of the dynamical and thermodynamic drivers of large-scale Greenland melt events during 1979–2017
Intermittency of Arctic–mid-latitude teleconnections: stratospheric pathway between autumn sea ice and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation
The role of wave–wave interactions in sudden stratospheric warming formation
Sina Mehrdad, Dörthe Handorf, Ines Höschel, Khalil Karami, Johannes Quaas, Sudhakar Dipu, and Christoph Jacobi
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1223–1268, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1223-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1223-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study introduces a novel deep learning (DL) approach to analyze how regional radiative forcing in Europe impacts the Arctic climate. By integrating atmospheric poleward energy transport with DL-based clustering of atmospheric patterns and attributing anomalies to specific clusters, our method reveals crucial, nuanced interactions within the climate system, enhancing our understanding of intricate climate dynamics.
Annelise Waling, Adam Herrington, Katharine Duderstadt, Jack Dibb, and Elizabeth Burakowski
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1117–1135, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1117-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are channel-shaped features within the atmosphere that carry moisture from the mid-latitudes to the poles, bringing warm temperatures and moisture that can cause melt in the Arctic. We used variable-resolution grids to model ARs around the Greenland ice sheet and compared this output to uniform-resolution grids and reanalysis products. We found that the variable-resolution grids produced ARs and precipitation that were more similar to observation-based products.
Peter Yu Feng Siew, Camille Li, Stefan Pieter Sobolowski, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, and Mingfang Ting
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 985–996, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-985-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-985-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The atmospheric circulation response to surface heating at various latitudes was investigated within an idealized framework. We confirm previous results on the importance of temperature advection for balancing heating at lower latitudes. Further poleward, transient eddies become increasingly important, and eventually radiative cooling also contributes. This promotes amplified surface warming for high-latitude heating and has implications for links between sea ice loss and polar amplification.
Andrei Sukhanovskii, Andrei Gavrilov, Elena Popova, and Andrei Vasiliev
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 863–880, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-863-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-863-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
One of the intriguing problems associated with recent climate trends is the rapid temperature increase in the Arctic. In this paper, we address the Arctic warming problem using a laboratory atmospheric general circulation model. We show that variations in polar cooling lead to significant changes in polar-cell structure, resulting in a substantial increase in temperature. Our modeling results provide a plausible explanation for Arctic warming amplification.
Holly C. Ayres, David Ferreira, Wonsun Park, Joakim Kjellsson, and Malin Ödalen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 805–820, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-805-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-805-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Weddell Sea Polynya (WSP) is a large, closed-off opening in winter sea ice that has opened only a couple of times since we started using satellites to observe sea ice. The aim of this study is to determine the impact of the WSP on the atmosphere. We use three numerical models of the atmosphere, and for each, we use two levels of detail. We find that the WSP causes warming but only locally, alongside an increase in precipitation, and shows some dependence on the large-scale background winds.
Thomas J. Ballinger, Kent Moore, Qinghua Ding, Amy H. Butler, James E. Overland, Richard L. Thoman, Ian Baxter, Zhe Li, and Edward Hanna
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-925, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-925, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The month of March marks the Arctic sea ice maximum when the ice cover extent reaches its peak within the annual cycle. This study chronicles the meteorological conditions that led to the anomalous, tandem March 2023 ice melt event in the Labrador and Bering seas. A sudden stratospheric warming event initiated the development of anticyclonic circulation patterns over these areas which aided northward transport of anomalously warm, moist air and drove their unusual sea ice melt.
Marilena Oltmanns, N. Penny Holliday, James Screen, Ben I. Moat, Simon A. Josey, D. Gwyn Evans, and Sheldon Bacon
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 109–132, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-109-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-109-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The melting of land ice and sea ice leads to freshwater input into the ocean. Based on observations, we show that stronger freshwater anomalies in the subpolar North Atlantic in winter are followed by warmer and drier weather over Europe in summer. The identified link indicates an enhanced predictability of European summer weather at least a winter in advance. It further suggests that warmer and drier summers over Europe can become more frequent under increased freshwater fluxes in the future.
Johannes Riebold, Andy Richling, Uwe Ulbrich, Henning Rust, Tido Semmler, and Dörthe Handorf
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 663–682, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-663-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-663-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Arctic sea ice loss might impact the atmospheric circulation outside the Arctic and therefore extremes over mid-latitudes. Here, we analyze model experiments to initially assess the influence of sea ice loss on occurrence frequencies of large-scale circulation patterns. Some of these detected circulation changes can be linked to changes in occurrences of European temperature extremes. Compared to future global temperature increases, the sea-ice-related impacts are however of secondary relevance.
Hannah L. Croad, John Methven, Ben Harvey, Sarah P. E. Keeley, and Ambrogio Volonté
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 617–638, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-617-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-617-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The interaction between Arctic cyclones and the sea ice surface in summer is investigated by analysing the friction and sensible heat flux processes acting in two cyclones with contrasting evolution. The major finding is that the effects of friction on cyclone strength are dependent on a particular feature of cyclone structure: whether they have a warm or cold core during growth. Friction leads to cooling within both cyclone types in the lower atmosphere, which may contribute to their longevity.
Stephen Outten, Camille Li, Martin P. King, Lingling Suo, Peter Y. F. Siew, Hoffman Cheung, Richard Davy, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Tore Furevik, Shengping He, Erica Madonna, Stefan Sobolowski, Thomas Spengler, and Tim Woollings
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 95–114, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-95-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-95-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Strong disagreement exists in the scientific community over the role of Arctic sea ice in shaping wintertime Eurasian cooling. The observed Eurasian cooling can arise naturally without sea-ice loss but is expected to be a rare event. We propose a framework that incorporates sea-ice retreat and natural variability as contributing factors. A helpful analogy is of a dice roll that may result in cooling, warming, or anything in between, with sea-ice loss acting to load the dice in favour of cooling.
Tim Woollings, Camille Li, Marie Drouard, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Karim A. Elmestekawy, Momme Hell, Brian Hoskins, Cheikh Mbengue, Matthew Patterson, and Thomas Spengler
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 61–80, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-61-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-61-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper investigates large-scale atmospheric variability in polar regions, specifically the balance between large-scale turbulence and Rossby wave activity. The polar regions are relatively more dominated by turbulence than lower latitudes, but Rossby waves are found to play a role and can even be triggered from high latitudes under certain conditions. Features such as cyclone lifetimes, high-latitude blocks, and annular modes are discussed from this perspective.
Thomas Caton Harrison, Stavroula Biri, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, John C. King, Elizabeth C. Kent, Étienne Vignon, and John Turner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1415–1437, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1415-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1415-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Easterly winds encircle Antarctica, impacting sea ice and helping drive ocean currents which shield ice shelves from warmer waters. Reanalysis datasets give us our most complete picture of how these winds behave. In this paper we use satellite data, surface measurements and weather balloons to test how realistic recent reanalysis estimates are. The winds are generally accurate, especially in the most recent of the datasets, but important short-term variations are often misrepresented.
Alexander F. Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1097–1112, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1097-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1097-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding the location and intensity of hazardous weather across the Arctic is important for assessing risks to infrastructure, shipping, and coastal communities. This study describes the typical lifetime and structure of intense winter and summer Arctic cyclones. Results show the composite development and structure of intense summer Arctic cyclones are different from intense winter Arctic and North Atlantic Ocean extra-tropical cyclones and from conceptual models.
Kristian Strommen, Stephan Juricke, and Fenwick Cooper
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 951–975, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-951-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-951-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Observational data suggest that the extent of Arctic sea ice influences mid-latitude winter weather. However, climate models generally fail to reproduce this link, making it unclear if models are missing something or if the observed link is just a coincidence. We show that if one explicitly represents the effect of unresolved sea ice variability in a climate model, then it is able to reproduce this link. This implies that the link may be real but that many models simply fail to simulate it.
Costanza Rodda, Uwe Harlander, and Miklos Vincze
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 937–950, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-937-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-937-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We report on a set of laboratory experiments that reproduce a global warming scenario. The experiments show that a decreased temperature difference between the poles and subtropics slows down the eastward propagation of the mid-latitude weather patterns. Another consequence is that the temperature variations diminish, and hence extreme temperature events might become milder in a global warming scenario. Our experiments also show that the frequency of such events increases.
Amélie Simon, Guillaume Gastineau, Claude Frankignoul, Vladimir Lapin, and Pablo Ortega
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 845–861, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-845-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-845-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of the Arctic sea-ice loss on atmospheric circulation in midlatitudes depends on persistent sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific. In winter, Arctic sea-ice loss and a warm North Pacific Ocean both induce depressions over the North Pacific and North Atlantic, an anticyclone over Greenland, and a stratospheric anticyclone over the Arctic. However, the effects are not additive as the interaction between both signals is slightly destructive.
Steve Delhaye, Thierry Fichefet, François Massonnet, David Docquier, Rym Msadek, Svenya Chripko, Christopher Roberts, Sarah Keeley, and Retish Senan
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 555–573, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-555-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-555-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
It is unclear how the atmosphere will respond to a retreat of summer Arctic sea ice. Much attention has been paid so far to weather extremes at mid-latitude and in winter. Here we focus on the changes in extremes in surface air temperature and precipitation over the Arctic regions in summer during and following abrupt sea ice retreats. We find that Arctic sea ice loss clearly shifts the extremes in surface air temperature and precipitation over terrestrial regions surrounding the Arctic Ocean.
Patrick Johannes Stoll
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 483–504, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-483-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-483-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Polar lows are small but intense cyclones and constitute one of the major natural hazards in the polar regions. To be aware of when and where polar lows occur, this study maps polar lows globally by utilizing new atmospheric datasets. Polar lows develop in all marine areas adjacent to sea ice or cold landmasses, mainly in the winter half year. The highest frequency appears in the Nordic Seas. Further, it is found that polar lows are rather similar in the different ocean sub-basins.
Matthew T. Bray and Steven M. Cavallo
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 251–278, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-251-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-251-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Tropopause polar vortices (TPVs) are a high-latitude atmospheric phenomenon that impact weather inside and outside of polar regions. Using a set of long-lived TPVs to gain insight into the conditions that are most supportive of TPV survival, we describe patterns of vortex formation and movement. In addition, we analyze the characteristics of these TPVs and how they vary by season. These results help us to better understand TPVs which, in turn, may improve forecasts of related weather events.
Katharina Hartmuth, Maxi Boettcher, Heini Wernli, and Lukas Papritz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 89–111, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-89-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-89-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we introduce a novel method to objectively define and identify extreme Arctic seasons based on different surface variables. We find that such seasons are resulting from various combinations of unusual seasonal conditions. The occurrence or absence of different atmospheric processes strongly affects the character of extreme Arctic seasons. Further, changes in sea ice and sea surface temperature can strongly influence the formation of such a season in distinct regions.
Sonja Murto, Rodrigo Caballero, Gunilla Svensson, and Lukas Papritz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 21–44, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-21-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-21-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses reanalysis data to investigate the role of atmospheric blocking, prevailing high-pressure systems and mid-latitude cyclones in driving high-Arctic wintertime warm extreme events. These events are mainly preceded by Ural and Scandinavian blocks, which are shown to be significantly influenced and amplified by cyclones in the North Atlantic. It also highlights processes that need to be well captured in climate models for improving their representation of Arctic wintertime climate.
Suzanne L. Gray, Kevin I. Hodges, Jonathan L. Vautrey, and John Methven
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1303–1324, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1303-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1303-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This research demonstrates, using feature identification and tracking, that anticlockwise rotating vortices at about 7 km altitude called tropopause polar vortices frequently interact with storms developing in the Arctic region, affecting their structure and where they occur. This interaction has implications for the predictability of Arctic weather, given the long lifetime but a relatively small spatial scale of these vortices compared with the density of the polar observation network.
Corwin J. Wright, Richard J. Hall, Timothy P. Banyard, Neil P. Hindley, Isabell Krisch, Daniel M. Mitchell, and William J. M. Seviour
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1283–1301, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1283-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1283-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are some of the most dramatic events in the atmosphere and are believed to help cause extreme winter weather events such as the 2018 Beast from the East in Europe and North America. Here, we use unique data from the European Space Agency's new Aeolus satellite to make the first-ever measurements at a global scale of wind changes due to an SSW in the lower part of the atmosphere to help us understand how SSWs affect the atmosphere and surface weather.
Clio Michel, Erica Madonna, Clemens Spensberger, Camille Li, and Stephen Outten
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1131–1148, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1131-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1131-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models still struggle to correctly represent blocking frequency over the North Atlantic–European domain. This study makes use of five large ensembles of climate simulations and the ERA-Interim reanalyses to investigate the Greenland blocking frequency and one of its drivers, namely cyclonic Rossby wave breaking. We particularly try to understand the discrepancies between two specific models, out of the five, that behave differently.
Marcel Meyer, Iuliia Polkova, Kameswar Rao Modali, Laura Schaffer, Johanna Baehr, Stephan Olbrich, and Marc Rautenhaus
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 867–891, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-867-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-867-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Novel techniques from computer science are used to study extreme weather events. Inspired by the interactive 3-D visual analysis of the recently released ERA5 reanalysis data, we improve commonly used metrics for measuring polar winter storms and outbreaks of cold air. The software (Met.3D) that we have extended and applied as part of this study is freely available and can be used generically for 3-D visualization of a broad variety of atmospheric processes in weather and climate data.
Patrick Johannes Stoll, Thomas Spengler, Annick Terpstra, and Rune Grand Graversen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 19–36, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-19-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-19-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Polar lows are intense meso-scale cyclones occurring at high latitudes. The research community has not agreed on a conceptual model to describe polar-low development. Here, we apply self-organising maps to identify the typical ambient sub-synoptic environments of polar lows and find that they can be described as moist-baroclinic cyclones that develop in four different environments characterised by the vertical wind shear.
Lilian Schuster, Fabien Maussion, Lukas Langhamer, and Gina E. Moseley
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation and moisture sources over an arid region in northeast Greenland are investigated from 1979 to 2017 by a Lagrangian moisture source diagnostic driven by reanalysis data. Dominant winter moisture sources are the North Atlantic above 45° N. In summer local and north Eurasian continental sources dominate. In positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation, evaporation and moisture transport from the Norwegian Sea are stronger, resulting in more precipitation.
Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Iuliia Polkova, Lukas Papritz, Paolo Ruggieri, Martin P. King, Panos J. Athanasiadis, Johanna Baehr, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 541–553, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-541-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-541-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the stratospheric influence on marine cold air outbreaks (MCAOs) in the North Atlantic using ERA-Interim reanalysis data. MCAOs are associated with severe Arctic weather, such as polar lows and strong surface winds. Sudden stratospheric events are found to be associated with more frequent MCAOs in the Barents and the Norwegian seas, affected by the anomalous circulation over Greenland and Scandinavia. Identification of MCAO precursors is crucial for improved long-range prediction.
Mauro Hermann, Lukas Papritz, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 497–518, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-497-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-497-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We find, by tracing backward in time, that air masses causing extensive melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet originate from further south and lower altitudes than usual. Their exceptional warmth further arises due to ascent and cloud formation, which is special compared to near-surface heat waves in the midlatitudes or the central Arctic. The atmospheric systems and transport pathways identified here are crucial in understanding and simulating the atmospheric control of the ice sheet in the future.
Peter Yu Feng Siew, Camille Li, Stefan Pieter Sobolowski, and Martin Peter King
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 261–275, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-261-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-261-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Arctic sea ice loss has been linked to changes in mid-latitude weather and climate. However, the literature offers differing views on the strength, robustness, and even existence of these linkages. We use a statistical tool (Causal Effect Networks) to show that one proposed pathway linking Barents–Kara ice and mid-latitude circulation is intermittent in observations and likely only active under certain conditions. This result may help explain apparent inconsistencies across previous studies.
Erik A. Lindgren and Aditi Sheshadri
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 93–109, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-93-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-93-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are extreme events that influence surface weather up to 2 months after onset. We remove wave–wave interactions (WWIs) in vertical sections of a general circulation model to investigate the role of WWIs in SSW formation. We show that the effects of WWIs depend strongly on the pressure levels where they occur and the zonal structure of the wave forcing in the troposphere. Our results highlight the importance of upper-level processes in stratospheric dynamics.
Cited articles
Alekseev, G., Kuzmina, S., Bobylev, L., Urazgildeeva, A., and Gnatiuk, N.: Impact of atmospheric heat and moisture transport on the Arctic warming, Int. J. Climatol., 39, 3582–3592, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6040, 2019. a
Baggett, C., Lee, S., and Feldstein, S.: An Investigation of the presence of atmospheric rivers over the North Pacific during planetary-scale wave life cycles and their role in Arctic warming, J. Atmos. Sci., 73, 4329–4347, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-16-0033.1, 2016. a
Binder, H., Boettcher, M., Grams, C. M., Joos, H., Pfahl, S., and Wernli, H.: Exceptional air mass transport and dynamical drivers of an extreme wintertime Arctic warm event, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 12028–12036, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075841, 2017. a
Boisvert, L. N., Petty, A. A., and Stroeve, J. C.: The impact of the extreme winter 2015/16 Arctic cyclone on the Barents–Kara Seas, Mon. Weather Rev., 144, 4279–4287, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0234.1, 2016. a, b
Chen, L., Fettweis, X., Knudsen, E. M., and Joahannessen, O. M.: Impact of cyclonic and anticyclonic activity on Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance variation during 1980–2013, Int. J. Climatol., 36, 3423–3433, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4565, 2016. a
Copernicus Climate Service: ERA5 reanalysis, available at: https://climate.copernicus.eu/climate-reanalysis, last access 11 March 2021. a
Croci-Maspoli, M., Schwierz, C., and Davies, H. C.: A multifaceted climatology of atmospheric blocking and its recent linear trend, J. Climate, 20, 633–649, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4029.1, 2007. a
Doyle, J. G., Lesins, G., Thackray, C. P., Perro, C., Nott, G. J., Duck, T. J., Damoah, R., and Drummond, J. R.: Water vapor intrusions into the High Arctic during winter, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L12806, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047493, 2011. a, b
Fearon, M. G., Doyle, J. D., Ryglicki, D. R., Finocchio, P. M., and Sprenger, M.: The role of cyclones in moisture transport into the Arctic, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2020GL090353, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090353, 2021. a, b, c
Fettweis, X., Box, J. E., Agosta, C., Amory, C., Kittel, C., Lang, C., van As, D., Machguth, H., and Gallée, H.: Reconstructions of the 1900–2015 Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance using the regional climate MAR model, The Cryosphere, 11, 1015–1033, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1015-2017, 2017. a
Fletcher, J., Mason, S., and Jakob, C.: The climatology, meteorology, and boundary layer structure of marine cold air outbreaks in both hemispheres, J. Climate, 29, 1999–2014, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0268.1, 2016. a
Francis, J. A. and Hunter, E.: New insight into the disappearing Arctic sea ice, EOS Trans. Am. Geophys. Union, 87, 509–511, 2006. a
Gimeno, L., Vázquez, M., Eiras-Barca, J., Sorí, R., Algarra, I., and Nieto, R.: Atmospheric moisture transport and the decline in Arctic Sea ice, WIREs Clim. Change, 10, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.588, 2019. a
Gong, T. and Luo, D.: Ural blocking as an amplifier of the Arctic sea ice decline in winter, J. Climate, 30, 2639–2654, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0548.1, 2017. a
Gong, T., Feldstein, S., and Lee, S.: The role of downward infrared radiation in the recent Arctic winter warming trend, J. Climate, 30, 4937–4949, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0180.1, 2017. a
Graversen, R. G. and Burtu, M.: Arctic amplification enhanced by latent energy transport of atmospheric planetary waves, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 142, 2046–2054, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2802, 2016. a, b
Hauswirth, D.: Dynamic drivers of heat and moisture transport into the Arctic, Master's thesis, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland, 2020. a
Henderson, G. R., Barrett, B. S., Wachowicz, L. J., Mattingly, K. S., Preece, J. R., and Mote, T. L.: Local and remote atmospheric circulation drivers of Arctic change: A review, Front. Earth Sci., 9, 709896, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.709896, 2021. a, b
Hermann, M., Papritz, L., and Wernli, H.: A Lagrangian analysis of the dynamical and thermodynamic drivers of large-scale Greenland melt events during 1979–2017, Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 497–518, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-497-2020, 2020. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020. a
Holton, J. R. and Hakim, G. J.: An introduction to dynamic meteorology, Academic Press, London, UK, 2012. a
Kapsch, M.-L., Graversen, R. G., and Tjernström, M.: Springtime atmospheric energy transport and the control of Arctic summer sea-ice extent, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 744–748, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1884, 2013. a
Lee, S., Gong, T., Feldstein, S. B., Screen, J. A., and Simmonds, I.: Revisiting the cause of the 1989–2009 Arctic surface warming using the surface energy budget: Downward infrared radiation dominates the surface fluxes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 10654–10661, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075375, 2017. a, b
Liang, M., Czaja, A., and Graversen, R.: Poleward energy transport: Is the standard definition physically relevant at all time scales?, Clim. Dyn., 50, 1785–1797, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3722-x, 2018. a, b, c
Liu, C. and Barnes, E. A.: Extreme moisture transport into the Arctic linked to Rossby wave breaking, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 3774–3788, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022796, 2015. a
Luo, B., Wu, L., Luo, D., Dai, A., and Simmonds, I.: The winter midlatitude-Arctic interaction: effects of North Atlantic SST and high-latitude blocking on Arctic sea ice and Eurasian cooling, Clim. Dynam., 52, 2981–3004, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4301-5, 2019. a, b, c, d
Madonna, E., Hes, G., Li, C., Michel, C., and Siew, P. Y. F.: Control of Barents Sea wintertime cyclone variability by large-scale atmospheric flow, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL090322, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090322, 2020. a
Mayer, M., Tietsche, S., Haimberger, L., Trubouchi, T., Jayer, J., and Zuo, H.: An improved estimate of the coupled Arctic energy budget, J. Climate, 32, 7915–7934, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0233.1, 2019. a
Messori, G., Geen, R., and Czaja, A.: On the spatial and temporal variability of atmospheric heat transport in a hierarchy of models, J. Atmos. Sci, 74, 2163–2189, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-16-0360.1, 2017. a
Mortin, J., Svensson, G., Graversen, R. G., Kapsch, M.-L., Stroeve, J. C., and Boisvert, L. N.: Melt onset over Arctic sea ice controlled by atmospheric moisture transport, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 6636–6642, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069330, 2016. a
Nygård, T., Naakka, T., and Vihma, T.: Horizontal moisture transport dominates the regional moistening patterns in the Arctic, J. Climate, 33, 6793–6807, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0891.1, 2020. a
Orbe, C., Newman, P. A., Waugh, D. W., Holzer, M., Oman, L. D., Li, F., and Polvani, L. M.: Airmass origin in the Arctic. Part I: Seasonality, J. Climate, 28, 4997–5014, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00720.1, 2015. a
Papritz, L. and Spengler, T.: A Lagrangian climatology of wintertime cold air outbreaks in the Irminger and Nordic seas and their role in shaping air-sea heat fluxes, J. Climate, 30, 2717–2737, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0605.1, 2017. a, b, c
Papritz, L., Pfahl, S., Sodemann, H., and Wernli, H.: A climatology of cold air outbreaks and their impact on air-sea heat fluxes in the high-latitude South Pacific, J. Climate, 28, 342–364, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00482.1, 2015. a, b, c
Park, D.-S. R., Lee, S., and Feldstein, S. B.: Attribution of the recent winter sea ice decline over the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean, J. Climate, 28, 4027–4033, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0042.1, 2015a. a
Park, H.-S., Lee, S., Son, S.-W., Feldstein, S. B., and Kosaka, Y.: The impact of poleward moisture and sensible heat flux on Arctic winter sea ice variability, J. Climate, 28, 5030–5040, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0074.1, 2015b. a
Rinke, A., Segger, B., Crewell, S., Maturilli, M., Naakka, T., Nygård, T., Vihma, T., Alshawaf, F., G. Dick, J. W., and Keller, J.: Trends of vertically integrated water vapor over the Arctic during 1979–2016: Consistent moistening all over?, J. Climate, 32, 6097–6116, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0092.1, 2019. a
Ruggieri, P., Alvarez-Castro, M. C., Athanasiadis, P., Bellucci, A., Materia, S., and Gualdi, S.: North Atlantic Circulation Regimes and Heat Transport by Synoptic Eddies, J. Climate, 33, 4769–4785, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0498.1, 2020. a
Schuster, L., Maussion, F., Langhamer, L., and Moseley, G. E.: Lagrangian detection of precipitation moisture sources for an arid region in northeast Greenland: relations to the North Atlantic Oscillation, sea ice cover, and temporal trends from 1979 to 2017, Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1-2021, 2021. a
Screen, J. A. and Simmonds, I.: Increasing fall-winter energy loss from the Arctic Ocean and its role in Arctic temperature amplification, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L16707, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044136, 2010. a
Serreze, M. C., Barrett, A. P., Slater, A. G., Woodgate, R. A., Aagaard, K., Lammers, R. B., Steele, M., Moritz, R., Meredith, M., and Lee, C. M.: The large-scale freshwater cycle of the Arctic, J. Geophys. Res., 111, C11010, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JC003424, 2006. a
Singh, H. K. A., Bitz, C. M., Donohoe, A., and Rasch, P. J.: A source–receptor perspective on the polar hydrologic cycle: Sources, seasonality, and Arctic–Antarctic parity in the hydrologic cycle response to CO2 doubling, J. Climate, 30, 9999–10017, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0917.1, 2017. a, b, c
Sprenger,
M. and Wernli, H.: The LAGRANTO Lagrangian analysis tool – version
2.0, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2569–2586,
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2569-2015, 2015. a
Sprenger, M., Fragkoulidis, G., Binder, H., Croci-Maspoli, M., Graf, P., Grams, C. M., Knippertz, P., Madonna, E., Schemm, S., Škerlak, B., and Wernli, H.: Global climatologies of Eulerian and Lagrangian flow features based on ERA-Interim, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 98, 1739–1748, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00299.2, 2017. a
Trenberth, K. E.: Climate Diagnostics from Global Analyses: Conservation of Mass in ECMWF Analyses, J. Climate, 4, 707–722, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1991)004<0707:CDFGAC>2.0.CO;2, 1991. a
Vázquez, M., Nieto, R., Drumond, A., and Gimeno, L.: Moisture transport into the Arctic: Source-receptor relationships and the roles of atmospheric circulation and evaporation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 13493–13509, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025400, 2016. a, b, c
Vihma, T., Screen, J., Tjernström, M., Newton, B., Zhang, X., Popova, V., Deser, C., Holland, M., and Prowse, T.: The atmospheric role in the Arctic water cycle: A review on processes, past and future changes, and their impacts, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 121, 586–620, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JG003132, 2016. a
Villamil-Otero, G. A., Zhang, J., He, J., and Zhang, X.: Role of extratropical cyclones in the recently observed increase in poleward moisture transport into the Arctic Ocean, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 35, 85–94, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-017-7116-0, 2018. a
Ward, J. H.: Hierarchical grouping to optimize an objective function, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 58, 236–244, https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1963.10500845, 1963. a
Wernli, H. and Davies, H. C.: A Lagrangian-based analysis of extratropical cyclones. I: The method and some applications, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 123, 467–489, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712353811, 1997.
a
Wernli, H. and Schwierz, C.: Surface cyclones in the ERA-40 dataset (1958–2001). Part I: Novel identification method and global climatology, J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 2486–2507, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS3766.1, 2006. a
Woods, C. and Caballero, R.: The role of moist intrusions in winter Arctic warming and sea ice decline, J. Climate, 29, 4473–4485, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0773.1, 2016. a, b, c
Zhong, L., Hua, L., and Luo, D.: Local and external moisture sources for the Arctic warming over the Barents–Kara seas, J. Climate, 31, 1963–1982, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0203.1, 2018. a, b, c, d
Short summary
Water vapor profoundly impacts the Arctic, for example by contributing to sea ice melt. A substantial portion of water vapor in the Arctic originates at mid-latitudes and is transported poleward in a few episodic and intense events. This transport is accomplished by low- and high-pressure systems occurring in specific regions or following particular tracks. Here, we explore how the type of weather system impacts where the water vapor is coming from and how it is transported poleward.
Water vapor profoundly impacts the Arctic, for example by contributing to sea ice melt. A...
