Articles | Volume 5, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1299-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1299-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review article
| 
24 Oct 2024
Review article |
| 24 Oct 2024
| 24 Oct 2024
The importance of diabatic processes for the dynamics of synoptic-scale extratropical weather systems – a review
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Suzanne L. Gray
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Related authors
Stephanie Mayer, Martin Hendrick, Adrien Michel, Bettina Richter, Jürg Schweizer, Heini Wernli, and Alec van Herwijnen
The Cryosphere, 18, 5495–5517, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5495-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding the impact of climate change on snow avalanche activity is crucial for safeguarding lives and infrastructure. Here, we project changes in avalanche activity in the Swiss Alps throughout the 21st century. Our findings reveal elevation-dependent patterns of change, indicating a decrease in dry-snow avalanches alongside an increase in wet-snow avalanches at elevations above the current treeline. These results underscore the necessity to revisit measures for avalanche risk mitigation.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Nicolai Krieger, Heini Wernli, Michael Sprenger, and Christian Kühnlein
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3461, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3461, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the Laseyer, a local windstorm in a narrow Swiss valley, characterized by strong south-easterly winds during north-westerly ambient flow. Using large-eddy simulations (LES) with 30 m grid spacing, this is the first study to reveal that the extreme gusts in the valley are caused by an amplifying interplay of two recirculation regions. Modifying terrain and ambient wind conditions affects the windstorm's intensity and highlights the importance of topographic details in LES.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Hanin Binder and Heini Wernli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2936, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2936, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a systematic analysis of frequency anomalies and characteristics of extratropical cyclones during extremely wet, dry, windy, and calm winter and summer seasons in the extratropics, based on 1050 years of present-day climate simulations. We show that anomalies in cyclone frequency, intensity and stationarity are crucial for the occurrence of many extreme seasons, and that these anomaly patterns exhibit substantial regional and seasonal variability.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Killian P. Brennan, Michael Sprenger, André Walser, Marco Arpagaus, and Heini Wernli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2148, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2148, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study looked at the intense hailstorms in Switzerland on June 28, 2021. We used detailed computer simulations to understand how these storms formed, grew stronger, and eventually faded away. By tracking storm features and studying the airflows and weather conditions around them, we found that our model accurately predicted storm paths and lifespans. The storms showed complex patterns of hail and rain. This research can help improve the forecasting and handling of severe weather events.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ellina Agayar, Franziska Aemisegger, Moshe Armon, Alexander Scherrmann, and Heini Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2441–2459, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the results of a climatological investigation of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in Ukraine for the period 1979–2019. During all seasons EPEs are associated with pronounced upper-level potential vorticity (PV) anomalies. In addition, we find distinct seasonal and regional differences in moisture sources. Several extreme precipitation cases demonstrate the importance of these processes, complemented by a detailed synoptic analysis.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Stefano Ubbiali, Christian Kühnlein, Christoph Schär, Linda Schlemmer, Thomas C. Schulthess, Michael Staneker, and Heini Wernli
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-92, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-92, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
We explore a high-level programming model for GPU porting of NWP model codes, based on the Python domain-specific library GT4Py. We present a Python rewrite with GT4Py of the ECMWF cloud microphysics scheme and the associated tangent-linear and adjoint algorithms. We find excellent portability, competitive performance and robust execution on diverse CPU and GPU architectures. The additional advantages in terms of maintainability, productivity and readability are also highlighted.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Luise J. Fischer, David N. Bresch, Dominik Büeler, Christian M. Grams, Matthias Röthlisberger, and Heini Wernli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1253, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1253, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric flows over the North Atlantic can be meaningfully classified into weather regimes, and climate simulations suggest that the regime frequencies might change in the future. We provide a quantitative framework that helps assessing whether these regime frequency changes are relevant for understanding climate change signals in precipitation. At least in our example application, this is not the case, i.e., regime frequency changes explain little of the projected precipitation changes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Katharina Heitmann, Michael Sprenger, Hanin Binder, Heini Wernli, and Hanna Joos
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 537–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-537-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-537-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are coherently ascending air streams that occur in extratropical cyclones where they form precipitation and often affect the large-scale flow. We quantified the key characteristics and impacts of WCBs and linked them to different phases in the cyclone life cycle and to different WCB branches. A climatology of these metrics revealed that WCBs are most intense during cyclone intensification and that the cyclonic and anticyclonic WCB branches show distinct differences.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Katharina Hartmuth, Heini Wernli, and Lukas Papritz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-878, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-878, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we use large-ensemble climate model simulations to analyze extreme winters in the Barents Sea in a changing climate. We find that variability in both atmospheric processes and sea ice conditions determines the formation of such seasons in the present-day climate. The reduction in sea ice variability results in a decreasing importance of surface boundary conditions in a warmer climate, while the robust link shown for surface weather systems persists.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alexander Scherrmann, Heini Wernli, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 419–438, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-419-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-419-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We show that the formation of Mediterranean cyclones follows the presence of cyclones over the North Atlantic. The distinct regions of cyclone activity in the Mediterranean in the different seasons can be linked to the atmospheric state, in particular the position of the polar jet over the North Atlantic. With this we now better understand the processes that lead to the formation of Mediterranean cyclones. We used a novel simulation framework in which we directly show and probe this connection.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Esther S. Breuninger, Julie Tolu, Iris Thurnherr, Franziska Aemisegger, Aryeh Feinberg, Sylvain Bouchet, Jeroen E. Sonke, Véronique Pont, Heini Wernli, and Lenny H. E. Winkel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2491–2510, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2491-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2491-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric deposition is an important source of selenium (Se) and other health-relevant trace elements in surface environments. We found that the variability in elemental concentrations in atmospheric deposition reflects not only changes in emission sources but also weather conditions during atmospheric removal. Depending on the sources and if Se is derived more locally or from further away, the Se forms can be different, affecting the bioavailability of Se atmospherically supplied to soils.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Julian F. Quinting, Christian M. Grams, Edmund Kar-Man Chang, Stephan Pfahl, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 65–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-65-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-65-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Research in the last few decades has revealed that rapidly ascending airstreams in extratropical cyclones have an important effect on the evolution of downstream weather and predictability. In this study, we show that the occurrence of these airstreams over the North Pacific is modulated by tropical convection. Depending on the modulation, known atmospheric circulation patterns evolve quite differently, which may affect extended-range predictions in the Atlantic–European region.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Leonie Villiger, Marina Dütsch, Sandrine Bony, Marie Lothon, Stephan Pfahl, Heini Wernli, Pierre-Etienne Brilouet, Patrick Chazette, Pierre Coutris, Julien Delanoë, Cyrille Flamant, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Martin Werner, and Franziska Aemisegger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14643–14672, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14643-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates three numerical simulations performed with an isotope-enabled weather forecast model and investigates the coupling between shallow trade-wind cumulus clouds and atmospheric circulations on different scales. We show that the simulations reproduce key characteristics of shallow trade-wind clouds as observed during the field experiment EUREC4A and that the spatial distribution of stable-water-vapour isotopes is shaped by the overturning circulation associated with these clouds.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Elena De La Torre Castro, Tina Jurkat-Witschas, Armin Afchine, Volker Grewe, Valerian Hahn, Simon Kirschler, Martina Krämer, Johannes Lucke, Nicole Spelten, Heini Wernli, Martin Zöger, and Christiane Voigt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13167–13189, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13167-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13167-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we show the differences in the microphysical properties between high-latitude (HL) cirrus and mid-latitude (ML) cirrus over the Arctic, North Atlantic, and central Europe during summer. The in situ measurements are combined with backward trajectories to investigate the influence of the region on cloud formation. We show that HL cirrus are characterized by a lower concentration of larger ice crystals when compared to ML cirrus.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Mark J. Rodwell and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 591–615, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-591-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-591-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Midlatitude storms and their downstream impacts have a major impact on society, yet their prediction is especially prone to uncertainty. While this can never be fully eliminated, we find that the initial rate of growth of uncertainty varies for a range of forecast models. Examination of the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suggests ways in which uncertainty growth could be reduced, leading to sharper and more reliable forecasts over the first few days.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Mauro Hermann, Matthias Röthlisberger, Arthur Gessler, Andreas Rigling, Cornelius Senf, Thomas Wohlgemuth, and Heini Wernli
Biogeosciences, 20, 1155–1180, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1155-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1155-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines the multi-annual meteorological history of low-forest-greenness events in Europe's temperate and Mediterranean biome in 2002–2022. We systematically identify anomalies in temperature, precipitation, and weather systems as event precursors, with noteworthy differences between the two biomes. We also quantify the impact of the most extensive event in 2022 (37 % coverage), underlining the importance of understanding the forest–meteorology interaction in a changing climate.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alexander Scherrmann, Heini Wernli, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 157–173, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-157-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the dynamical origin of the lower-atmospheric potential vorticity (PV; linked to the intensity of cyclones) in Mediterranean cyclones. We quantify the contribution of the cyclone and the environment by tracing PV backward in time and space and linking it to the track of the cyclone. We find that the lower-tropospheric PV is produced shortly before the cyclone's stage of highest intensity. We investigate the driving processes and use a global dataset and a process-resolving one.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Hanna Joos, Michael Sprenger, Hanin Binder, Urs Beyerle, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 133–155, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-133-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are strongly ascending, cloud- and precipitation-forming airstreams in extratropical cyclones. In this study we assess their representation in a climate simulation and their changes under global warming. They become moister, become more intense, and reach higher altitudes in a future climate, implying that they potentially have an increased impact on the mid-latitude flow.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Andreas Schäfler, Michael Sprenger, Heini Wernli, Andreas Fix, and Martin Wirth
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 999–1018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-999-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-999-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, airborne lidar profile measurements of H2O and O3 across a midlatitude jet stream are combined with analyses in tracer–trace space and backward trajectories. We highlight that transport and mixing processes in the history of the observed air masses are governed by interacting tropospheric weather systems on synoptic timescales. We show that these weather systems play a key role in the high variability of the paired H2O and O3 distributions near the tropopause.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Hanin Binder, Hanna Joos, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 19–37, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-19-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-19-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are the main cloud- and precipitation-producing airstreams in extratropical cyclones. The latent heat release that occurs during cloud formation often contributes to the intensification of the associated cyclone. Based on the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble coupled climate simulations, we show that WCBs and associated latent heating will become stronger in a future climate and be even more important for explosive cyclone intensification than in the present.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Andries Jan de Vries, Franziska Aemisegger, Stephan Pfahl, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 8863–8895, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8863-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8863-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Earth's water cycle contains the common H2O molecule but also the less abundant, heavier HDO. We use their different physical properties to study tropical ice clouds in model simulations of the West African monsoon. Isotope signals reveal different processes through which ice clouds form and decay in deep-convective and widespread cirrus. Previously observed variations in upper-tropospheric vapour isotopes are explained by microphysical processes in convective updraughts and downdraughts.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Philipp Zschenderlein and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 391–411, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-391-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-391-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation and temperature are two of the most important variables describing our weather and climate. The relationship between these variables has been studied extensively; however, the role of specific weather systems in shaping this relationship has not been analysed yet. We therefore analyse whether intense precipitation occurs on warmer or on colder days and identify the relevant weather systems. In general, weather systems strongly influence this relationship, especially in winter.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jan Clemens, Felix Ploeger, Paul Konopka, Raphael Portmann, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3841–3860, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3841-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3841-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Highly polluted air flows from the surface to higher levels of the atmosphere during the Asian summer monsoon. At high levels, the air is trapped within eddies. Here, we study how air masses can leave the eddy within its cutoff, how they distribute, and how their chemical composition changes. We found evidence for transport from the eddy to higher latitudes over the North Pacific and even Alaska. During transport, trace gas concentrations within cutoffs changed gradually, showing steady mixing.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Katharina Hartmuth, Maxi Boettcher, Heini Wernli, and Lukas Papritz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 89–111, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-89-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-89-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we introduce a novel method to objectively define and identify extreme Arctic seasons based on different surface variables. We find that such seasons are resulting from various combinations of unusual seasonal conditions. The occurrence or absence of different atmospheric processes strongly affects the character of extreme Arctic seasons. Further, changes in sea ice and sea surface temperature can strongly influence the formation of such a season in distinct regions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Leonie Villiger, Heini Wernli, Maxi Boettcher, Martin Hagen, and Franziska Aemisegger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 59–88, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-59-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-59-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The coupling between the large-scale atmospheric circulation and the clouds in the trade-wind region is complex and not yet fully understood. In this study, the formation pathway of two anomalous cloud layers over Barbados during the field campaign EUREC4A is described. The two case studies highlight the influence of remote weather systems on the local environmental conditions in Barbados.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Philipp Zschenderlein and Heini Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-396, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-396, 2022
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
In early January 2021, Spain was affected by two extreme events – an unusually long cold spell and a heavy snowfall event associated with extratropical cyclone Filomena. In the study, we analyse the synoptic-dynamic development of the two extreme events. Cold air from the north was advected towards Spain and between 07 and 10 January, cyclone Filomena was responsible for major parts of the snowfall event. During this event, temperature and moisture contrasts accross Spain were very high.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Roman Attinger, Elisa Spreitzer, Maxi Boettcher, Heini Wernli, and Hanna Joos
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1073–1091, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1073-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1073-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Diabatic processes affect the development of extratropical cyclones. This work provides a systematic assessment of the diabatic processes that modify potential vorticity (PV) in model simulations. PV is primarily produced by condensation and convection. Given favorable environmental conditions, long-wave radiative cooling and turbulence become the primary process at the cold and warm fronts, respectively. Turbulence and long-wave radiative heating produce negative PV anomalies at the fronts.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Fabienne Dahinden, Franziska Aemisegger, Heini Wernli, Matthias Schneider, Christopher J. Diekmann, Benjamin Ertl, Peter Knippertz, Martin Werner, and Stephan Pfahl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16319–16347, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16319-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16319-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use high-resolution numerical isotope modelling and Lagrangian backward trajectories to identify moisture transport pathways and governing physical and dynamical processes that affect the free-tropospheric humidity and isotopic variability over the eastern subtropical North Atlantic. Furthermore, we conduct a thorough isotope modelling validation with aircraft and remote-sensing observations of water vapour isotopes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Raphael Portmann, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 507–534, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-507-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-507-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We explore the three-dimensional life cycle of cyclonic structures
(so-called PV cutoffs) near the tropopause. PV cutoffs are frequent weather systems in the extratropics that lead to high-impact weather. However, many unknowns exist regarding their evolution. We present a new method to track PV cutoffs as 3D objects in reanalysis data by following air parcels along the flow. We study the climatological life cycles of PV cutoffs in detail and propose a classification into three types.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Iris Thurnherr, Katharina Hartmuth, Lukas Jansing, Josué Gehring, Maxi Boettcher, Irina Gorodetskaya, Martin Werner, Heini Wernli, and Franziska Aemisegger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 331–357, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-331-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-331-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Extratropical cyclones are important for the transport of moisture from low to high latitudes. In this study, we investigate how the isotopic composition of water vapour is affected by horizontal temperature advection associated with extratropical cyclones using measurements and modelling. It is shown that air–sea moisture fluxes induced by this horizontal temperature advection lead to the strong variability observed in the isotopic composition of water vapour in the marine boundary layer.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Maxi Boettcher, Andreas Schäfler, Michael Sprenger, Harald Sodemann, Stefan Kaufmann, Christiane Voigt, Hans Schlager, Donato Summa, Paolo Di Girolamo, Daniele Nerini, Urs Germann, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5477–5498, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5477-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5477-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are important airstreams in extratropical cyclones, often leading to the formation of intense precipitation. We present a case study that involves aircraft, lidar and radar observations of water and clouds in a WCB ascending from western Europe across the Alps towards the Baltic Sea during the field campaigns HyMeX and T-NAWDEX-Falcon in October 2012. A probabilistic trajectory measure and an airborne tracer experiment were used to confirm the long pathway of the WCB.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Franziska Aemisegger, Raphaela Vogel, Pascal Graf, Fabienne Dahinden, Leonie Villiger, Friedhelm Jansen, Sandrine Bony, Bjorn Stevens, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 281–309, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-281-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-281-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The interaction of clouds in the trade wind region with the atmospheric flow is complex and at the heart of uncertainties associated with climate projections. In this study, a natural tracer of atmospheric circulation is used to establish a link between air originating from dry regions of the midlatitudes and the occurrence of specific cloud patterns. Two pathways involving transport within midlatitude weather systems are identified, by which air is brought into the trades within 5–10 d.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Annika Oertel, Michael Sprenger, Hanna Joos, Maxi Boettcher, Heike Konow, Martin Hagen, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 89–110, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-89-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-89-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Convection embedded in the stratiform cloud band of strongly ascending airstreams in extratropical cyclones (so-called warm conveyor belts) can influence not only surface precipitation but also the
upper-tropospheric potential vorticity (PV) and waveguide. The comparison of intense vs. moderate embedded convection shows that its strength alone is not a reliable measure for upper-tropospheric PV modification. Instead, characteristics of the ambient flow co-determine its dynamical significance.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Emmanouil Flaounas, Matthias Röthlisberger, Maxi Boettcher, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 71–88, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-71-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-71-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we identify the wettest seasons globally and address their meteorological characteristics. We show that in different regions the wettest seasons occur in different times of the year and result from either unusually high frequencies of wet days and/or daily extremes. These high frequencies can be largely attributed to four specific weather systems, especially cyclones. Our analysis uses a thoroughly explained, novel methodology that could also be applied to climate models.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Sebastian Schemm, Heini Wernli, and Hanin Binder
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 55–69, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-55-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-55-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
North Pacific cyclone intensities are reduced in winter, which is in contrast to North Atlantic cyclones and unexpected from the high available growth potential in winter. We investigate this intensity suppression from a cyclone life-cycle perspective and show that in winter Kuroshio cyclones propagate away from the region where they can grow more quickly, East China Sea cyclones are not relevant before spring, and Kamchatka cyclones grow in a region of reduced growth potential.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Stefan Rüdisühli, Michael Sprenger, David Leutwyler, Christoph Schär, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 675–699, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-675-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-675-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Most precipitation over Europe is linked to low-pressure systems, cold fronts, warm fronts, or high-pressure systems. Based on a massive computer simulation able to resolve thunderstorms, we quantify in detail how much precipitation these weather systems produced during 2000–2008. We find distinct seasonal and regional differences, such as fronts precipitating a lot in fall and winter over the North Atlantic but high-pressure systems mostly in summer over the continent by way of thunderstorms.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Raphael Portmann, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 597–615, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-597-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-597-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In September 2018 an intense Mediterranean cyclone with structural similarities to a hurricane, a so-called medicane, caused severe damage in Greece. Its development was uncertain, even just a few days in advance. The reason for this was uncertainties in the jet stream over the North Atlantic 3 d prior to cyclogenesis that propagated into the Mediterranean. They led to an uncertain position of the upper-level disturbance and, as a result, of the position and thermal structure of the cyclone.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Hanin Binder, Maxi Boettcher, Hanna Joos, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 577–595, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-577-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-577-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are important cloud- and
precipitation-producing airstreams in extratropical cyclones. By combining satellite observations with model data from a new reanalysis dataset, this study provides detailed observational insight into the vertical cloud structure of WCBs. We find that the reanalyses essentially capture the observed cloud pattern, but the observations reveal mesoscale structures not resolved by the temporally and spatially much coarser-resolution model data.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Mauro Hermann, Lukas Papritz, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 497–518, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-497-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-497-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We find, by tracing backward in time, that air masses causing extensive melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet originate from further south and lower altitudes than usual. Their exceptional warmth further arises due to ascent and cloud formation, which is special compared to near-surface heat waves in the midlatitudes or the central Arctic. The atmospheric systems and transport pathways identified here are crucial in understanding and simulating the atmospheric control of the ice sheet in the future.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Iris Thurnherr, Anna Kozachek, Pascal Graf, Yongbiao Weng, Dimitri Bolshiyanov, Sebastian Landwehr, Stephan Pfahl, Julia Schmale, Harald Sodemann, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Alessandro Toffoli, Heini Wernli, and Franziska Aemisegger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 5811–5835, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5811-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5811-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Stable water isotopes (SWIs) are tracers of moist atmospheric processes. We analyse the impact of large- to small-scale atmospheric processes and various environmental conditions on the variability of SWIs using ship-based SWI measurement in water vapour from the Atlantic and Southern Ocean. Furthermore, simultaneous measurements of SWIs at two altitudes are used to illustrate the potential of such measurements for future research to estimate sea spray evaporation and turbulent moisture fluxes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Philipp Zschenderlein, Stephan Pfahl, Heini Wernli, and Andreas H. Fink
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 191–206, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-191-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-191-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the formation of upper-tropospheric anticyclones connected to European surface heat waves. Tracing air masses backwards from these anticyclones, we found that trajectories are diabatically heated in two branches, either by North Atlantic cyclones or by convection closer to the heat wave anticyclone. The first branch primarily affects the onset of the anticyclone, while the second branch is more relevant for the maintenance. Our results are relevant for heat wave predictions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Annika Oertel, Maxi Boettcher, Hanna Joos, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 127–153, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-127-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-127-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are important, mainly stratiform cloud forming airstreams in extratropical cyclones that can include embedded convection. This WCB case study systematically compares the characteristics of convective vs. slantwise ascent of the WCB. We find that embedded convection leads to regions of significantly stronger precipitation. Moreover, it strongly modifies the potential vorticity distribution in the lower and upper troposphere, where its also influences the waveguide.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Matthias Röthlisberger, Michael Sprenger, Emmanouil Flaounas, Urs Beyerle, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 45–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-45-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-45-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we quantify how much the coldest, middle and hottest third of all days during extremely hot summers contribute to their respective seasonal mean anomaly. This
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
extreme-summer substructurevaries substantially across the Northern Hemisphere and is directly related to the local physical drivers of extreme summers. Furthermore, comparing re-analysis (i.e. measurement-based) and climate model extreme-summer substructures reveals a remarkable level of agreement.
Bojan Škerlak, Stephan Pfahl, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 6535–6549, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6535-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6535-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Upper-level fronts are often associated with the rapid transport of stratospheric air to the lower troposphere, leading to significantly enhanced ozone concentrations. This paper considers the multi-scale nature that is needed to bring stratospheric air down to the surface. The final transport step to the surface can be related to frontal zones and the associated vertical winds or to near-horizontal tracer transport followed by entrainment into a growing planetary boundary layer.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Pascal Graf, Heini Wernli, Stephan Pfahl, and Harald Sodemann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 747–765, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-747-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-747-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This article studies the interaction between falling rain and vapour with stable water isotopes. In particular, rain evaporation is relevant for several atmospheric processes, but remains difficult to quantify. A novel framework is introduced to facilitate the interpretation of stable water isotope observations in near-surface vapour and rain. The usefulness of this concept is demonstrated using observations at high time resolution from a cold front. Sensitivities are tested with a simple model.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Marina Dütsch, Stephan Pfahl, Miro Meyer, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 1653–1669, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1653-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1653-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric processes are imprinted in the concentrations of stable water isotopes. Therefore, isotopes can be used to gain insight into these processes and improve our understanding of the water cycle. In this study, we present a new method that quantitatively shows which atmospheric processes influence isotope concentrations in near-surface water vapour over Europe. We found that the most important processes are evaporation from the ocean, evapotranspiration from land, and turbulent mixing.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Hanna Joos, Erica Madonna, Kasja Witlox, Sylvaine Ferrachat, Heini Wernli, and Ulrike Lohmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6243–6255, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6243-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6243-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of pollution on the precipitation formation in warm conveyor belts (WCBs), the most rising air streams in low-pressure systems is investigated. We investigate in detail the cloud properties and resulting precipitation along these rising airstreams which are simulated with a global climate model. Overall, no big impact of aerosols on precipitation can be seen, however, when comparing the most polluted/cleanest WCBs, a suppression of precipitation by aerosols is observed.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Harald Sodemann, Franziska Aemisegger, Stephan Pfahl, Mark Bitter, Ulrich Corsmeier, Thomas Feuerle, Pascal Graf, Rolf Hankers, Gregor Hsiao, Helmut Schulz, Andreas Wieser, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6125–6151, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6125-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6125-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We report here the first survey of stable water isotope composition over the Mediterranean sea made from aircraft. The stable isotope composition of the atmospheric water vapour changed in response to evaporation conditions at the sea surface, elevation, and airmass transport history. Our data set will be valuable for testing how water is transported in weather prediction and climate models and for understanding processes in the Mediterranean water cycle.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
P. Reutter, B. Škerlak, M. Sprenger, and H. Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10939–10953, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10939-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10939-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
In this manuscript, we investigate the exchange of air masses across the dynamical tropopause (stratosphere-troposphere exchange, STE) in the vicinity of North Atlantic cyclones. By using two 6-hourly resolved ERA-Interim climatologies of STE and cyclones from 1979 to 2011, we are able to directly compute the amount of STE in the vicinity of every individual cyclone in this time period. This enables us to provide a robust and consistent quantification of STE near North Atlantic cyclones.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
M. Sprenger and H. Wernli
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2569–2586, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2569-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2569-2015, 2015
A. Kunz, N. Spelten, P. Konopka, R. Müller, R. M. Forbes, and H. Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 10803–10822, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10803-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10803-2014, 2014
P. Reutter, J. Trentmann, A. Seifert, P. Neis, H. Su, D. Chang, M. Herzog, H. Wernli, M. O. Andreae, and U. Pöschl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 7573–7583, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7573-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7573-2014, 2014
C. M. Grams, H. Binder, S. Pfahl, N. Piaget, and H. Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1691–1702, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1691-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1691-2014, 2014
A. Winschall, S. Pfahl, H. Sodemann, and H. Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 6605–6619, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6605-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6605-2014, 2014
F. Aemisegger, S. Pfahl, H. Sodemann, I. Lehner, S. I. Seneviratne, and H. Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 4029–4054, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4029-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4029-2014, 2014
B. Škerlak, M. Sprenger, and H. Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 913–937, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-913-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-913-2014, 2014
A. K. Miltenberger, S. Pfahl, and H. Wernli
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1989–2004, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1989-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1989-2013, 2013
C. Frick, A. Seifert, and H. Wernli
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1925–1939, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1925-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1925-2013, 2013
Suzanne L. Gray, Ambrogio Volonté, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, and Ben J. Harvey
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1523–1544, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1523-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1523-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Sting jets occur in some of the most damaging cyclones impacting Europe. We present the first climatology of sting-jet cyclones over the major ocean basins. Cyclones with sting-jet precursors occur over the North Atlantic, North Pacific, and Southern Oceans, with implications for wind warnings. Precursor cyclones have distinct characteristics, even in reanalyses that are too coarse to fully resolve sting jets, evidencing the climatological consequences of strong diabatic cloud processes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Stephanie Mayer, Martin Hendrick, Adrien Michel, Bettina Richter, Jürg Schweizer, Heini Wernli, and Alec van Herwijnen
The Cryosphere, 18, 5495–5517, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5495-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding the impact of climate change on snow avalanche activity is crucial for safeguarding lives and infrastructure. Here, we project changes in avalanche activity in the Swiss Alps throughout the 21st century. Our findings reveal elevation-dependent patterns of change, indicating a decrease in dry-snow avalanches alongside an increase in wet-snow avalanches at elevations above the current treeline. These results underscore the necessity to revisit measures for avalanche risk mitigation.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Nicolai Krieger, Heini Wernli, Michael Sprenger, and Christian Kühnlein
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3461, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3461, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the Laseyer, a local windstorm in a narrow Swiss valley, characterized by strong south-easterly winds during north-westerly ambient flow. Using large-eddy simulations (LES) with 30 m grid spacing, this is the first study to reveal that the extreme gusts in the valley are caused by an amplifying interplay of two recirculation regions. Modifying terrain and ambient wind conditions affects the windstorm's intensity and highlights the importance of topographic details in LES.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Claudio Sánchez, Suzanne Gray, Ambrogio Volonté, Florian Pantillon, Ségolène Berthou, and Silvio Davolio
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1429–1455, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1429-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Medicane Ianos was a very intense cyclone that led to harmful impacts over Greece. We explore what processes are important for the forecasting of Medicane Ianos, with the use of the Met Office weather model. There was a preceding precipitation event before Ianos’s birth, whose energetics generated a bubble in the tropopause. This bubble created the necessary conditions for Ianos to emerge and strengthen, and the processes are enhanced in simulations with a warmer Mediterranean Sea.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Florian Pantillon, Silvio Davolio, Elenio Avolio, Carlos Calvo-Sancho, Diego Saul Carrió, Stavros Dafis, Emanuele Silvio Gentile, Juan Jesus Gonzalez-Aleman, Suzanne Gray, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Platon Patlakas, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Didier Ricard, Antonio Ricchi, Claudio Sanchez, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1187–1205, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1187-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1187-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Cyclone Ianos of September 2020 was a high-impact but poorly predicted medicane (Mediterranean hurricane). A community effort of numerical modelling provides robust results to improve prediction. It is found that the representation of local thunderstorms controlled the interaction of Ianos with a jet stream at larger scales and its subsequent evolution. The results help us understand the peculiar dynamics of medicanes and provide guidance for the next generation of weather and climate models.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Hanin Binder and Heini Wernli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2936, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2936, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a systematic analysis of frequency anomalies and characteristics of extratropical cyclones during extremely wet, dry, windy, and calm winter and summer seasons in the extratropics, based on 1050 years of present-day climate simulations. We show that anomalies in cyclone frequency, intensity and stationarity are crucial for the occurrence of many extreme seasons, and that these anomaly patterns exhibit substantial regional and seasonal variability.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Killian P. Brennan, Michael Sprenger, André Walser, Marco Arpagaus, and Heini Wernli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2148, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2148, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study looked at the intense hailstorms in Switzerland on June 28, 2021. We used detailed computer simulations to understand how these storms formed, grew stronger, and eventually faded away. By tracking storm features and studying the airflows and weather conditions around them, we found that our model accurately predicted storm paths and lifespans. The storms showed complex patterns of hail and rain. This research can help improve the forecasting and handling of severe weather events.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ellina Agayar, Franziska Aemisegger, Moshe Armon, Alexander Scherrmann, and Heini Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2441–2459, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the results of a climatological investigation of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in Ukraine for the period 1979–2019. During all seasons EPEs are associated with pronounced upper-level potential vorticity (PV) anomalies. In addition, we find distinct seasonal and regional differences in moisture sources. Several extreme precipitation cases demonstrate the importance of these processes, complemented by a detailed synoptic analysis.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Stefano Ubbiali, Christian Kühnlein, Christoph Schär, Linda Schlemmer, Thomas C. Schulthess, Michael Staneker, and Heini Wernli
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-92, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-92, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
We explore a high-level programming model for GPU porting of NWP model codes, based on the Python domain-specific library GT4Py. We present a Python rewrite with GT4Py of the ECMWF cloud microphysics scheme and the associated tangent-linear and adjoint algorithms. We find excellent portability, competitive performance and robust execution on diverse CPU and GPU architectures. The additional advantages in terms of maintainability, productivity and readability are also highlighted.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Luise J. Fischer, David N. Bresch, Dominik Büeler, Christian M. Grams, Matthias Röthlisberger, and Heini Wernli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1253, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1253, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric flows over the North Atlantic can be meaningfully classified into weather regimes, and climate simulations suggest that the regime frequencies might change in the future. We provide a quantitative framework that helps assessing whether these regime frequency changes are relevant for understanding climate change signals in precipitation. At least in our example application, this is not the case, i.e., regime frequency changes explain little of the projected precipitation changes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Katharina Heitmann, Michael Sprenger, Hanin Binder, Heini Wernli, and Hanna Joos
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 537–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-537-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-537-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are coherently ascending air streams that occur in extratropical cyclones where they form precipitation and often affect the large-scale flow. We quantified the key characteristics and impacts of WCBs and linked them to different phases in the cyclone life cycle and to different WCB branches. A climatology of these metrics revealed that WCBs are most intense during cyclone intensification and that the cyclonic and anticyclonic WCB branches show distinct differences.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Katharina Hartmuth, Heini Wernli, and Lukas Papritz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-878, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-878, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we use large-ensemble climate model simulations to analyze extreme winters in the Barents Sea in a changing climate. We find that variability in both atmospheric processes and sea ice conditions determines the formation of such seasons in the present-day climate. The reduction in sea ice variability results in a decreasing importance of surface boundary conditions in a warmer climate, while the robust link shown for surface weather systems persists.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alexander Scherrmann, Heini Wernli, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 419–438, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-419-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-419-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We show that the formation of Mediterranean cyclones follows the presence of cyclones over the North Atlantic. The distinct regions of cyclone activity in the Mediterranean in the different seasons can be linked to the atmospheric state, in particular the position of the polar jet over the North Atlantic. With this we now better understand the processes that lead to the formation of Mediterranean cyclones. We used a novel simulation framework in which we directly show and probe this connection.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Esther S. Breuninger, Julie Tolu, Iris Thurnherr, Franziska Aemisegger, Aryeh Feinberg, Sylvain Bouchet, Jeroen E. Sonke, Véronique Pont, Heini Wernli, and Lenny H. E. Winkel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2491–2510, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2491-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2491-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric deposition is an important source of selenium (Se) and other health-relevant trace elements in surface environments. We found that the variability in elemental concentrations in atmospheric deposition reflects not only changes in emission sources but also weather conditions during atmospheric removal. Depending on the sources and if Se is derived more locally or from further away, the Se forms can be different, affecting the bioavailability of Se atmospherically supplied to soils.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Julian F. Quinting, Christian M. Grams, Edmund Kar-Man Chang, Stephan Pfahl, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 65–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-65-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-65-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Research in the last few decades has revealed that rapidly ascending airstreams in extratropical cyclones have an important effect on the evolution of downstream weather and predictability. In this study, we show that the occurrence of these airstreams over the North Pacific is modulated by tropical convection. Depending on the modulation, known atmospheric circulation patterns evolve quite differently, which may affect extended-range predictions in the Atlantic–European region.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Leonie Villiger, Marina Dütsch, Sandrine Bony, Marie Lothon, Stephan Pfahl, Heini Wernli, Pierre-Etienne Brilouet, Patrick Chazette, Pierre Coutris, Julien Delanoë, Cyrille Flamant, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Martin Werner, and Franziska Aemisegger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14643–14672, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14643-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates three numerical simulations performed with an isotope-enabled weather forecast model and investigates the coupling between shallow trade-wind cumulus clouds and atmospheric circulations on different scales. We show that the simulations reproduce key characteristics of shallow trade-wind clouds as observed during the field experiment EUREC4A and that the spatial distribution of stable-water-vapour isotopes is shaped by the overturning circulation associated with these clouds.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Elena De La Torre Castro, Tina Jurkat-Witschas, Armin Afchine, Volker Grewe, Valerian Hahn, Simon Kirschler, Martina Krämer, Johannes Lucke, Nicole Spelten, Heini Wernli, Martin Zöger, and Christiane Voigt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13167–13189, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13167-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13167-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we show the differences in the microphysical properties between high-latitude (HL) cirrus and mid-latitude (ML) cirrus over the Arctic, North Atlantic, and central Europe during summer. The in situ measurements are combined with backward trajectories to investigate the influence of the region on cloud formation. We show that HL cirrus are characterized by a lower concentration of larger ice crystals when compared to ML cirrus.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Emmanouil Flaounas, Leonardo Aragão, Lisa Bernini, Stavros Dafis, Benjamin Doiteau, Helena Flocas, Suzanne L. Gray, Alexia Karwat, John Kouroutzoglou, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Florian Pantillon, Claudia Pasquero, Platon Patlakas, María Ángeles Picornell, Federico Porcù, Matthew D. K. Priestley, Marco Reale, Malcolm J. Roberts, Hadas Saaroni, Dor Sandler, Enrico Scoccimarro, Michael Sprenger, and Baruch Ziv
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 639–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Cyclone detection and tracking methods (CDTMs) have different approaches in defining and tracking cyclone centers. This leads to disagreements on extratropical cyclone climatologies. We present a new approach that combines tracks from individual CDTMs to produce new composite tracks. These new tracks are shown to correspond to physically meaningful systems with distinctive life stages.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Mark J. Rodwell and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 591–615, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-591-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-591-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Midlatitude storms and their downstream impacts have a major impact on society, yet their prediction is especially prone to uncertainty. While this can never be fully eliminated, we find that the initial rate of growth of uncertainty varies for a range of forecast models. Examination of the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suggests ways in which uncertainty growth could be reduced, leading to sharper and more reliable forecasts over the first few days.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ed Hawkins, Philip Brohan, Samantha N. Burgess, Stephen Burt, Gilbert P. Compo, Suzanne L. Gray, Ivan D. Haigh, Hans Hersbach, Kiki Kuijjer, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Chesley McColl, Andrew P. Schurer, Laura Slivinski, and Joanne Williams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1465–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We examine a severe windstorm that occurred in February 1903 and caused significant damage in the UK and Ireland. Using newly digitized weather observations from the time of the storm, combined with a modern weather forecast model, allows us to determine why this storm caused so much damage. We demonstrate that the event is one of the most severe windstorms to affect this region since detailed records began. The approach establishes a new tool to improve assessments of risk from extreme weather.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Mauro Hermann, Matthias Röthlisberger, Arthur Gessler, Andreas Rigling, Cornelius Senf, Thomas Wohlgemuth, and Heini Wernli
Biogeosciences, 20, 1155–1180, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1155-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1155-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines the multi-annual meteorological history of low-forest-greenness events in Europe's temperate and Mediterranean biome in 2002–2022. We systematically identify anomalies in temperature, precipitation, and weather systems as event precursors, with noteworthy differences between the two biomes. We also quantify the impact of the most extensive event in 2022 (37 % coverage), underlining the importance of understanding the forest–meteorology interaction in a changing climate.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alexander Scherrmann, Heini Wernli, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 157–173, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-157-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the dynamical origin of the lower-atmospheric potential vorticity (PV; linked to the intensity of cyclones) in Mediterranean cyclones. We quantify the contribution of the cyclone and the environment by tracing PV backward in time and space and linking it to the track of the cyclone. We find that the lower-tropospheric PV is produced shortly before the cyclone's stage of highest intensity. We investigate the driving processes and use a global dataset and a process-resolving one.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Hanna Joos, Michael Sprenger, Hanin Binder, Urs Beyerle, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 133–155, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-133-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are strongly ascending, cloud- and precipitation-forming airstreams in extratropical cyclones. In this study we assess their representation in a climate simulation and their changes under global warming. They become moister, become more intense, and reach higher altitudes in a future climate, implying that they potentially have an increased impact on the mid-latitude flow.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Andreas Schäfler, Michael Sprenger, Heini Wernli, Andreas Fix, and Martin Wirth
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 999–1018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-999-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-999-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, airborne lidar profile measurements of H2O and O3 across a midlatitude jet stream are combined with analyses in tracer–trace space and backward trajectories. We highlight that transport and mixing processes in the history of the observed air masses are governed by interacting tropospheric weather systems on synoptic timescales. We show that these weather systems play a key role in the high variability of the paired H2O and O3 distributions near the tropopause.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Hanin Binder, Hanna Joos, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 19–37, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-19-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-19-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are the main cloud- and precipitation-producing airstreams in extratropical cyclones. The latent heat release that occurs during cloud formation often contributes to the intensification of the associated cyclone. Based on the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble coupled climate simulations, we show that WCBs and associated latent heating will become stronger in a future climate and be even more important for explosive cyclone intensification than in the present.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Andries Jan de Vries, Franziska Aemisegger, Stephan Pfahl, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 8863–8895, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8863-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8863-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Earth's water cycle contains the common H2O molecule but also the less abundant, heavier HDO. We use their different physical properties to study tropical ice clouds in model simulations of the West African monsoon. Isotope signals reveal different processes through which ice clouds form and decay in deep-convective and widespread cirrus. Previously observed variations in upper-tropospheric vapour isotopes are explained by microphysical processes in convective updraughts and downdraughts.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Philipp Zschenderlein and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 391–411, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-391-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-391-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation and temperature are two of the most important variables describing our weather and climate. The relationship between these variables has been studied extensively; however, the role of specific weather systems in shaping this relationship has not been analysed yet. We therefore analyse whether intense precipitation occurs on warmer or on colder days and identify the relevant weather systems. In general, weather systems strongly influence this relationship, especially in winter.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jan Clemens, Felix Ploeger, Paul Konopka, Raphael Portmann, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3841–3860, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3841-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3841-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Highly polluted air flows from the surface to higher levels of the atmosphere during the Asian summer monsoon. At high levels, the air is trapped within eddies. Here, we study how air masses can leave the eddy within its cutoff, how they distribute, and how their chemical composition changes. We found evidence for transport from the eddy to higher latitudes over the North Pacific and even Alaska. During transport, trace gas concentrations within cutoffs changed gradually, showing steady mixing.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Katharina Hartmuth, Maxi Boettcher, Heini Wernli, and Lukas Papritz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 89–111, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-89-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-89-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we introduce a novel method to objectively define and identify extreme Arctic seasons based on different surface variables. We find that such seasons are resulting from various combinations of unusual seasonal conditions. The occurrence or absence of different atmospheric processes strongly affects the character of extreme Arctic seasons. Further, changes in sea ice and sea surface temperature can strongly influence the formation of such a season in distinct regions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Leonie Villiger, Heini Wernli, Maxi Boettcher, Martin Hagen, and Franziska Aemisegger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 59–88, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-59-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-59-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The coupling between the large-scale atmospheric circulation and the clouds in the trade-wind region is complex and not yet fully understood. In this study, the formation pathway of two anomalous cloud layers over Barbados during the field campaign EUREC4A is described. The two case studies highlight the influence of remote weather systems on the local environmental conditions in Barbados.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Philipp Zschenderlein and Heini Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-396, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-396, 2022
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
In early January 2021, Spain was affected by two extreme events – an unusually long cold spell and a heavy snowfall event associated with extratropical cyclone Filomena. In the study, we analyse the synoptic-dynamic development of the two extreme events. Cold air from the north was advected towards Spain and between 07 and 10 January, cyclone Filomena was responsible for major parts of the snowfall event. During this event, temperature and moisture contrasts accross Spain were very high.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Suzanne L. Gray, Kevin I. Hodges, Jonathan L. Vautrey, and John Methven
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1303–1324, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1303-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1303-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This research demonstrates, using feature identification and tracking, that anticlockwise rotating vortices at about 7 km altitude called tropopause polar vortices frequently interact with storms developing in the Arctic region, affecting their structure and where they occur. This interaction has implications for the predictability of Arctic weather, given the long lifetime but a relatively small spatial scale of these vortices compared with the density of the polar observation network.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Roman Attinger, Elisa Spreitzer, Maxi Boettcher, Heini Wernli, and Hanna Joos
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1073–1091, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1073-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1073-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Diabatic processes affect the development of extratropical cyclones. This work provides a systematic assessment of the diabatic processes that modify potential vorticity (PV) in model simulations. PV is primarily produced by condensation and convection. Given favorable environmental conditions, long-wave radiative cooling and turbulence become the primary process at the cold and warm fronts, respectively. Turbulence and long-wave radiative heating produce negative PV anomalies at the fronts.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Fabienne Dahinden, Franziska Aemisegger, Heini Wernli, Matthias Schneider, Christopher J. Diekmann, Benjamin Ertl, Peter Knippertz, Martin Werner, and Stephan Pfahl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16319–16347, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16319-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16319-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use high-resolution numerical isotope modelling and Lagrangian backward trajectories to identify moisture transport pathways and governing physical and dynamical processes that affect the free-tropospheric humidity and isotopic variability over the eastern subtropical North Atlantic. Furthermore, we conduct a thorough isotope modelling validation with aircraft and remote-sensing observations of water vapour isotopes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Raphael Portmann, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 507–534, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-507-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-507-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We explore the three-dimensional life cycle of cyclonic structures
(so-called PV cutoffs) near the tropopause. PV cutoffs are frequent weather systems in the extratropics that lead to high-impact weather. However, many unknowns exist regarding their evolution. We present a new method to track PV cutoffs as 3D objects in reanalysis data by following air parcels along the flow. We study the climatological life cycles of PV cutoffs in detail and propose a classification into three types.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Iris Thurnherr, Katharina Hartmuth, Lukas Jansing, Josué Gehring, Maxi Boettcher, Irina Gorodetskaya, Martin Werner, Heini Wernli, and Franziska Aemisegger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 331–357, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-331-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-331-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Extratropical cyclones are important for the transport of moisture from low to high latitudes. In this study, we investigate how the isotopic composition of water vapour is affected by horizontal temperature advection associated with extratropical cyclones using measurements and modelling. It is shown that air–sea moisture fluxes induced by this horizontal temperature advection lead to the strong variability observed in the isotopic composition of water vapour in the marine boundary layer.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Maxi Boettcher, Andreas Schäfler, Michael Sprenger, Harald Sodemann, Stefan Kaufmann, Christiane Voigt, Hans Schlager, Donato Summa, Paolo Di Girolamo, Daniele Nerini, Urs Germann, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5477–5498, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5477-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5477-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are important airstreams in extratropical cyclones, often leading to the formation of intense precipitation. We present a case study that involves aircraft, lidar and radar observations of water and clouds in a WCB ascending from western Europe across the Alps towards the Baltic Sea during the field campaigns HyMeX and T-NAWDEX-Falcon in October 2012. A probabilistic trajectory measure and an airborne tracer experiment were used to confirm the long pathway of the WCB.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Emmanouil Flaounas, Suzanne L. Gray, and Franziska Teubler
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 255–279, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-255-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-255-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we quantify the relative contribution of different atmospheric processes to the development of 100 intense Mediterranean cyclones and show that both upper tropospheric systems and diabatic processes contribute to cyclone development. However, these contributions are complex and present high variability among the cases. For this reason, we analyse several exemplary cases in more detail, including 10 systems that have been identified in the past as tropical-like cyclones.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Franziska Aemisegger, Raphaela Vogel, Pascal Graf, Fabienne Dahinden, Leonie Villiger, Friedhelm Jansen, Sandrine Bony, Bjorn Stevens, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 281–309, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-281-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-281-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The interaction of clouds in the trade wind region with the atmospheric flow is complex and at the heart of uncertainties associated with climate projections. In this study, a natural tracer of atmospheric circulation is used to establish a link between air originating from dry regions of the midlatitudes and the occurrence of specific cloud patterns. Two pathways involving transport within midlatitude weather systems are identified, by which air is brought into the trades within 5–10 d.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Annika Oertel, Michael Sprenger, Hanna Joos, Maxi Boettcher, Heike Konow, Martin Hagen, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 89–110, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-89-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-89-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Convection embedded in the stratiform cloud band of strongly ascending airstreams in extratropical cyclones (so-called warm conveyor belts) can influence not only surface precipitation but also the
upper-tropospheric potential vorticity (PV) and waveguide. The comparison of intense vs. moderate embedded convection shows that its strength alone is not a reliable measure for upper-tropospheric PV modification. Instead, characteristics of the ambient flow co-determine its dynamical significance.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Emmanouil Flaounas, Matthias Röthlisberger, Maxi Boettcher, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 71–88, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-71-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-71-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we identify the wettest seasons globally and address their meteorological characteristics. We show that in different regions the wettest seasons occur in different times of the year and result from either unusually high frequencies of wet days and/or daily extremes. These high frequencies can be largely attributed to four specific weather systems, especially cyclones. Our analysis uses a thoroughly explained, novel methodology that could also be applied to climate models.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Sebastian Schemm, Heini Wernli, and Hanin Binder
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 55–69, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-55-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-55-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
North Pacific cyclone intensities are reduced in winter, which is in contrast to North Atlantic cyclones and unexpected from the high available growth potential in winter. We investigate this intensity suppression from a cyclone life-cycle perspective and show that in winter Kuroshio cyclones propagate away from the region where they can grow more quickly, East China Sea cyclones are not relevant before spring, and Kamchatka cyclones grow in a region of reduced growth potential.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Stefan Rüdisühli, Michael Sprenger, David Leutwyler, Christoph Schär, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 675–699, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-675-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-675-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Most precipitation over Europe is linked to low-pressure systems, cold fronts, warm fronts, or high-pressure systems. Based on a massive computer simulation able to resolve thunderstorms, we quantify in detail how much precipitation these weather systems produced during 2000–2008. We find distinct seasonal and regional differences, such as fronts precipitating a lot in fall and winter over the North Atlantic but high-pressure systems mostly in summer over the continent by way of thunderstorms.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Raphael Portmann, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 597–615, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-597-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-597-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In September 2018 an intense Mediterranean cyclone with structural similarities to a hurricane, a so-called medicane, caused severe damage in Greece. Its development was uncertain, even just a few days in advance. The reason for this was uncertainties in the jet stream over the North Atlantic 3 d prior to cyclogenesis that propagated into the Mediterranean. They led to an uncertain position of the upper-level disturbance and, as a result, of the position and thermal structure of the cyclone.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Hanin Binder, Maxi Boettcher, Hanna Joos, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 577–595, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-577-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-577-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are important cloud- and
precipitation-producing airstreams in extratropical cyclones. By combining satellite observations with model data from a new reanalysis dataset, this study provides detailed observational insight into the vertical cloud structure of WCBs. We find that the reanalyses essentially capture the observed cloud pattern, but the observations reveal mesoscale structures not resolved by the temporally and spatially much coarser-resolution model data.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Mauro Hermann, Lukas Papritz, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 497–518, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-497-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-497-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We find, by tracing backward in time, that air masses causing extensive melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet originate from further south and lower altitudes than usual. Their exceptional warmth further arises due to ascent and cloud formation, which is special compared to near-surface heat waves in the midlatitudes or the central Arctic. The atmospheric systems and transport pathways identified here are crucial in understanding and simulating the atmospheric control of the ice sheet in the future.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Iris Thurnherr, Anna Kozachek, Pascal Graf, Yongbiao Weng, Dimitri Bolshiyanov, Sebastian Landwehr, Stephan Pfahl, Julia Schmale, Harald Sodemann, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Alessandro Toffoli, Heini Wernli, and Franziska Aemisegger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 5811–5835, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5811-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5811-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Stable water isotopes (SWIs) are tracers of moist atmospheric processes. We analyse the impact of large- to small-scale atmospheric processes and various environmental conditions on the variability of SWIs using ship-based SWI measurement in water vapour from the Atlantic and Southern Ocean. Furthermore, simultaneous measurements of SWIs at two altitudes are used to illustrate the potential of such measurements for future research to estimate sea spray evaporation and turbulent moisture fluxes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Philipp Zschenderlein, Stephan Pfahl, Heini Wernli, and Andreas H. Fink
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 191–206, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-191-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-191-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the formation of upper-tropospheric anticyclones connected to European surface heat waves. Tracing air masses backwards from these anticyclones, we found that trajectories are diabatically heated in two branches, either by North Atlantic cyclones or by convection closer to the heat wave anticyclone. The first branch primarily affects the onset of the anticyclone, while the second branch is more relevant for the maintenance. Our results are relevant for heat wave predictions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Annika Oertel, Maxi Boettcher, Hanna Joos, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 127–153, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-127-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-127-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are important, mainly stratiform cloud forming airstreams in extratropical cyclones that can include embedded convection. This WCB case study systematically compares the characteristics of convective vs. slantwise ascent of the WCB. We find that embedded convection leads to regions of significantly stronger precipitation. Moreover, it strongly modifies the potential vorticity distribution in the lower and upper troposphere, where its also influences the waveguide.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ambrogio Volonté, Peter A. Clark, and Suzanne L. Gray
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 63–91, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-63-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-63-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Sting jets (SJs) can lead to strong surface winds by descending into the frontal-fracture region of intense extratropical cyclones. In this study we look at idealised simulations of SJ-containing cyclones produced using an improved initial state and a wide set of sensitivity experiments. The results clarify the role of dry instabilities in SJ dynamics and evolution, supporting a recent conceptual model. The simulations also highlight the robustness of SJ occurrence in these intense cyclones.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Matthias Röthlisberger, Michael Sprenger, Emmanouil Flaounas, Urs Beyerle, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 45–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-45-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-45-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we quantify how much the coldest, middle and hottest third of all days during extremely hot summers contribute to their respective seasonal mean anomaly. This
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
extreme-summer substructurevaries substantially across the Northern Hemisphere and is directly related to the local physical drivers of extreme summers. Furthermore, comparing re-analysis (i.e. measurement-based) and climate model extreme-summer substructures reveals a remarkable level of agreement.
Bojan Škerlak, Stephan Pfahl, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 6535–6549, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6535-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6535-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Upper-level fronts are often associated with the rapid transport of stratospheric air to the lower troposphere, leading to significantly enhanced ozone concentrations. This paper considers the multi-scale nature that is needed to bring stratospheric air down to the surface. The final transport step to the surface can be related to frontal zones and the associated vertical winds or to near-horizontal tracer transport followed by entrainment into a growing planetary boundary layer.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Pascal Graf, Heini Wernli, Stephan Pfahl, and Harald Sodemann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 747–765, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-747-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-747-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This article studies the interaction between falling rain and vapour with stable water isotopes. In particular, rain evaporation is relevant for several atmospheric processes, but remains difficult to quantify. A novel framework is introduced to facilitate the interpretation of stable water isotope observations in near-surface vapour and rain. The usefulness of this concept is demonstrated using observations at high time resolution from a cold front. Sensitivities are tested with a simple model.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Marina Dütsch, Stephan Pfahl, Miro Meyer, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 1653–1669, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1653-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1653-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric processes are imprinted in the concentrations of stable water isotopes. Therefore, isotopes can be used to gain insight into these processes and improve our understanding of the water cycle. In this study, we present a new method that quantitatively shows which atmospheric processes influence isotope concentrations in near-surface water vapour over Europe. We found that the most important processes are evaporation from the ocean, evapotranspiration from land, and turbulent mixing.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Hanna Joos, Erica Madonna, Kasja Witlox, Sylvaine Ferrachat, Heini Wernli, and Ulrike Lohmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6243–6255, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6243-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6243-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of pollution on the precipitation formation in warm conveyor belts (WCBs), the most rising air streams in low-pressure systems is investigated. We investigate in detail the cloud properties and resulting precipitation along these rising airstreams which are simulated with a global climate model. Overall, no big impact of aerosols on precipitation can be seen, however, when comparing the most polluted/cleanest WCBs, a suppression of precipitation by aerosols is observed.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Harald Sodemann, Franziska Aemisegger, Stephan Pfahl, Mark Bitter, Ulrich Corsmeier, Thomas Feuerle, Pascal Graf, Rolf Hankers, Gregor Hsiao, Helmut Schulz, Andreas Wieser, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6125–6151, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6125-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6125-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We report here the first survey of stable water isotope composition over the Mediterranean sea made from aircraft. The stable isotope composition of the atmospheric water vapour changed in response to evaporation conditions at the sea surface, elevation, and airmass transport history. Our data set will be valuable for testing how water is transported in weather prediction and climate models and for understanding processes in the Mediterranean water cycle.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
P. Reutter, B. Škerlak, M. Sprenger, and H. Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10939–10953, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10939-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10939-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
In this manuscript, we investigate the exchange of air masses across the dynamical tropopause (stratosphere-troposphere exchange, STE) in the vicinity of North Atlantic cyclones. By using two 6-hourly resolved ERA-Interim climatologies of STE and cyclones from 1979 to 2011, we are able to directly compute the amount of STE in the vicinity of every individual cyclone in this time period. This enables us to provide a robust and consistent quantification of STE near North Atlantic cyclones.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
M. Sprenger and H. Wernli
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2569–2586, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2569-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2569-2015, 2015
A. Kunz, N. Spelten, P. Konopka, R. Müller, R. M. Forbes, and H. Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 10803–10822, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10803-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10803-2014, 2014
P. Reutter, J. Trentmann, A. Seifert, P. Neis, H. Su, D. Chang, M. Herzog, H. Wernli, M. O. Andreae, and U. Pöschl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 7573–7583, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7573-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7573-2014, 2014
C. M. Grams, H. Binder, S. Pfahl, N. Piaget, and H. Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1691–1702, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1691-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1691-2014, 2014
A. Winschall, S. Pfahl, H. Sodemann, and H. Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 6605–6619, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6605-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6605-2014, 2014
J. K. Sweeney, J. M. Chagnon, and S. L. Gray
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 4409–4418, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4409-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4409-2014, 2014
F. Aemisegger, S. Pfahl, H. Sodemann, I. Lehner, S. I. Seneviratne, and H. Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 4029–4054, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4029-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4029-2014, 2014
B. Škerlak, M. Sprenger, and H. Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 913–937, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-913-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-913-2014, 2014
A. K. Miltenberger, S. Pfahl, and H. Wernli
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1989–2004, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1989-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1989-2013, 2013
C. Frick, A. Seifert, and H. Wernli
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1925–1939, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1925-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1925-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Dynamical processes in midlatitudes
A global climatology of sting-jet extratropical cyclones
The impact of preceding convection on the development of Medicane Ianos and the sensitivity to sea surface temperature
The impact of synoptic storm likelihood on European subseasonal forecast uncertainty and their modulation by the stratosphere
Spatio-temporal averaging of jets obscures the reinforcement of baroclinicity by latent heating
Impact of stochastic physics on the representation of atmospheric blocking in EC-Earth3
The crucial representation of deep convection for the cyclogenesis of Medicane Ianos
Frequency anomalies and characteristics of extratropical cyclones during extremely wet, dry, windy and calm seasons in the extratropics
The connection between North Atlantic storm track regimes and eastern Mediterranean cyclonic activity
A storm-relative climatology of compound hazards in Mediterranean cyclones
A new characterisation of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet using two-dimensional moment analysis
Linking compound weather extremes to Mediterranean cyclones, fronts, and airstreams
From Sea to Sky: Understanding the sea surface temperature impact on an atmospheric blocking event using sensitivity experiments with the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) model
A linear assessment of barotropic Rossby wave propagation in different background flow configurations
Towards a process-oriented understanding of the impact of stochastic perturbations on the model climate
Atmospheric Deserts: Detection and Consequences
Synoptic perspective on the conversion and maintenance of local available potential energy in extratropical cyclones
Lagrangian characterization of heat waves: The perspective matters
Deepening mechanisms of cut-off lows in the Southern Hemisphere and the role of jet streams: insights from eddy kinetic energy analysis
Large-scale perspective on extreme near-surface winds in the central North Atlantic
Divergent convective outflow in ICON deep-convection-permitting and parameterised deep convection simulations
Changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation over the 20th century
Life cycle dynamics of Greenland blocking from a potential vorticity perspective
Warm conveyor belt characteristics and impacts along the life cycle of extratropical cyclones: case studies and climatological analysis based on ERA5
Influence of radiosonde observations on the sharpness and altitude of the midlatitude tropopause in the ECMWF IFS
Analysing 23 years of warm-season derechos in France: a climatology and investigation of synoptic and environmental changes
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
A Lagrangian framework for detecting and characterizing the descent of foehn from Alpine to local scales
The upstream–downstream connection of North Atlantic and Mediterranean cyclones in semi-idealized simulations
Simulating record-shattering cold winters of the beginning of the 21st century in France
Understanding the vertical temperature structure of recent record-shattering heatwaves
Persistent warm and cold spells in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics: regionalisation, synoptic-scale dynamics and temperature budget
Linking Gulf Stream air–sea interactions to the exceptional blocking episode in February 2019: a Lagrangian perspective
Process-based classification of Mediterranean cyclones using potential vorticity
The relation between Rossby wave-breaking events and low-level weather systems
Aquaplanet simulations with winter and summer hemispheres: model setup and circulation response to warming
Seasonally dependent increases in subweekly temperature variability over Southern Hemisphere landmasses detected in multiple reanalyses
Identification of high-wind features within extratropical cyclones using a probabilistic random forest – Part 2: Climatology over Europe
Cold wintertime air masses over Europe: where do they come from and how do they form?
Diabatic effects on the evolution of storm tracks
Atmospheric response to cold wintertime Tibetan Plateau conditions over eastern Asia in climate models
Transient anticyclonic eddies and their relationship to atmospheric block persistence
A composite approach to produce reference datasets for extratropical cyclone tracks: application to Mediterranean cyclones
Thunderstorm environments in Europe
What distinguishes 100-year precipitation extremes over central European river catchments from more moderate extreme events?
Towards a holistic understanding of blocked regime dynamics through a combination of complementary diagnostic perspectives
Moist available potential energy of the mean state of the atmosphere and the thermodynamic potential for warm conveyor belts and convection
Large spread in the representation of compound long-duration dry and hot spells over Europe in CMIP5
Similarity and variability of blocked weather-regime dynamics in the Atlantic–European region
Anomalous subtropical zonal winds drive decreases in southern Australian frontal rain
Origin of low-tropospheric potential vorticity in Mediterranean cyclones
Robust poleward jet shifts in idealised baroclinic-wave life-cycle experiments with noisy initial conditions
Suzanne L. Gray, Ambrogio Volonté, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, and Ben J. Harvey
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1523–1544, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1523-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1523-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Sting jets occur in some of the most damaging cyclones impacting Europe. We present the first climatology of sting-jet cyclones over the major ocean basins. Cyclones with sting-jet precursors occur over the North Atlantic, North Pacific, and Southern Oceans, with implications for wind warnings. Precursor cyclones have distinct characteristics, even in reanalyses that are too coarse to fully resolve sting jets, evidencing the climatological consequences of strong diabatic cloud processes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Claudio Sánchez, Suzanne Gray, Ambrogio Volonté, Florian Pantillon, Ségolène Berthou, and Silvio Davolio
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1429–1455, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1429-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Medicane Ianos was a very intense cyclone that led to harmful impacts over Greece. We explore what processes are important for the forecasting of Medicane Ianos, with the use of the Met Office weather model. There was a preceding precipitation event before Ianos’s birth, whose energetics generated a bubble in the tropopause. This bubble created the necessary conditions for Ianos to emerge and strengthen, and the processes are enhanced in simulations with a warmer Mediterranean Sea.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Philip Rupp, Jonas Spaeth, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Dominik Büeler, Michael Sprenger, and Thomas Birner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1287–1298, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1287-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1287-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify the occurrence of strong synoptic storms as contributing about 20 % to the uncertainty of subseasonal geopotential height forecasts over northern Europe. We further show that North Atlantic storms are less frequent, weaker and shifted southward following sudden stratospheric warming events, leading to a reduction in northern European forecast uncertainty.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Henrik Auestad, Clemens Spensberger, Andrea Marcheggiani, Paulo Ceppi, Thomas Spengler, and Tim Woollings
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1269–1286, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1269-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1269-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Latent heating due to condensation can influence atmospheric circulation by strengthening or weakening horizontal temperature contrasts. Strong temperature contrasts intensify storms and imply the existence of strong upper tropospheric winds called jets. It remains unclear whether latent heating preferentially reinforces or abates the existing jet. We show that this disagreement is attributable to how the jet is defined, confirming that latent heating reinforces the jet.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Michele Filippucci, Simona Bordoni, and Paolo Davini
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1207–1222, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1207-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1207-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric blocking is a recurring phenomenon in midlatitudes, causing winter cold spells and summer heat waves. Current models underestimate it, hindering understanding of global warming's impact on extremes. In this paper, we investigate whether stochastic parameterizations can improve blocking representation. We find that blocking frequency representation slightly deteriorates, following a change in midlatitude winds. We conclude by suggesting a direction for future model development.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Florian Pantillon, Silvio Davolio, Elenio Avolio, Carlos Calvo-Sancho, Diego Saul Carrió, Stavros Dafis, Emanuele Silvio Gentile, Juan Jesus Gonzalez-Aleman, Suzanne Gray, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Platon Patlakas, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Didier Ricard, Antonio Ricchi, Claudio Sanchez, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1187–1205, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1187-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1187-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Cyclone Ianos of September 2020 was a high-impact but poorly predicted medicane (Mediterranean hurricane). A community effort of numerical modelling provides robust results to improve prediction. It is found that the representation of local thunderstorms controlled the interaction of Ianos with a jet stream at larger scales and its subsequent evolution. The results help us understand the peculiar dynamics of medicanes and provide guidance for the next generation of weather and climate models.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Hanin Binder and Heini Wernli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2936, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2936, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a systematic analysis of frequency anomalies and characteristics of extratropical cyclones during extremely wet, dry, windy, and calm winter and summer seasons in the extratropics, based on 1050 years of present-day climate simulations. We show that anomalies in cyclone frequency, intensity and stationarity are crucial for the occurrence of many extreme seasons, and that these anomaly patterns exhibit substantial regional and seasonal variability.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Dor Sandler, Hadas Saaroni, Baruch Ziv, Talia Tamarin-Brodsky, and Nili Harnik
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1103–1116, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1103-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1103-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The North Atlantic region serves as a source of moisture and energy for Mediterranean storms. Its impact over the Levant region remains an open question due to its smaller weather systems and their longer distance from the ocean. We find an optimal circulation pattern which allows North Atlantic influence to reach farther into the eastern Mediterranean, thus making storms stronger and rainier. This may be relevant for future Mediterranean climate, which is projected to become much drier.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Raphaël Rousseau-Rizzi, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Jennifer L. Catto, Alice Portal, Yonatan Givon, and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1079–1101, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We identify situations when rain and wind, rain and wave, or heat and dust hazards co-occur within Mediterranean cyclones. These hazard combinations are associated with risk to infrastructure, risk of coastal flooding and risk of respiratory issues. The presence of Mediterranean cyclones is associated with increased probability of all three hazard combinations. We identify weather configurations and cyclone structures, particularly those associated with specific co-occurrence combinations.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jacob Perez, Amanda C. Maycock, Stephen D. Griffiths, Steven C. Hardiman, and Christine M. McKenna
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1061–1078, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1061-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1061-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses existing methods for identifying the position and tilt of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet, proposing a new feature-based approach. The new method overcomes limitations of other methods, offering a more robust characterisation. Contrary to prior findings, the distribution of daily latitudes shows no distinct multi-modal structure, challenging the notion of preferred jet stream latitudes or regimes. This research enhances our understanding of North Atlantic dynamics.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alice Portal, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Jennifer L. Catto, Yonatan Givon, and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1043–1060, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1043-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1043-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mediterranean cyclones are associated with extended rain, wind, and wave impacts. Although beneficial for regional water resources, their passage may induce extreme weather, which is especially impactful when multiple hazards combine together. Here we show how the passage of Mediterranean cyclones increases the likelihood of rain–wind and wave–wind compounding and how compound–cyclone statistics vary by region and season, depending on the presence of specific airflows around the cyclone.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Svenja Christ, Marta Wenta, Christian M. Grams, and Annika Oertel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2403, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2403, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The detailed representation of sea surface temperature (SST) in numerical models is important for the prediction of atmospheric blocking in the North Atlantic. Yet, the underlying physical processes are not fully understood. Using SST sensitivity experiments for a case study, we identify a physical pathway through which SST in the Gulf Stream region is linked to the downstream upper-level flow evolution in the North Atlantic.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Antonio Segalini, Jacopo Riboldi, Volkmar Wirth, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 997–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-997-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-997-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Planetary Rossby waves are created by topography and evolve in time. In this work, an analytical solution of this classical problem is proposed under the approximation of linear wave dynamics. The theory is able to describe reasonably well the evolution of the perturbation and compares well with full nonlinear simulations. Several relevant cases with single and double zonal jets are assessed with the theoretical framework
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Moritz Deinhard and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 927–942, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-927-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-927-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Stochastic perturbations are an established technique to represent model uncertainties in numerical weather prediction. While such schemes are beneficial for the forecast skill, they can also change the mean state of the model. We analyse how different schemes modulate rapidly ascending airstreams and whether the changes to such weather systems are projected onto larger scales. We thereby provide a process-oriented perspective on how perturbations affect the model climate.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Fiona Fix, Georg Johann Mayr, Achim Zeileis, Isabell Kathrin Stucke, and Reto Stauffer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2143, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2143, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
“Atmospheric deserts” (ADs) are air masses that are transported away from hot, dry regions. Our study introduces this new concept. ADs can suppress or boost thunderstorms, and potentially contribute to the formation of heat waves, which makes them relevant for forecasting extreme events. Using a novel detection method, we follow the AD directly from North Africa to Europe for a case in June 2022, allowing us to analyze the air mass at any time and investigate how it is modified along the way.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Marc Federer, Lukas Papritz, Michael Sprenger, and Christian M. Grams
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2112, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2112, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Although extratropical cyclones in the North Atlantic are among the most impactful midlatitude weather systems, the potential for their growth on synoptic scales is not well understood. Here we show how they convert potential into kinetic energy through the descent of cold upper-tropospheric air from high latitudes. Surface processes, such as ocean heat exchange, have a smaller effect. Understanding these dynamics helps to explain the processes that maintain storm tracks.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Amelie Mayer and Volkmar Wirth
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2018, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Although heatwaves are among the most dangerous weather-related hazards, their underlying mechanisms are not fully understood. Here, we investigate the formation of heat waves in an air-parcel based framework and distinguish the contributions from horizontal transport, vertical transport, and diabatic heating. We show that the obtained results depend profoundly on whether one compares the absolute contributions of the individual terms or, instead, their anomalies relative to climatology.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Henri Rossi Pinheiro, Kevin Ivan Hodges, and Manoel Alonso Gan
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 881–894, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-881-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-881-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Cut-off lows (COLs) are weather systems with varied structures and lifecycles, from upper atmospheric to deep vortices. Deep, strong COLs are common around Australia and the southwestern Pacific in autumn and spring, while shallow, weak COLs occur more in summer near the Equator. Jet streams play a crucial role in COL development, with different jets influencing its depth and strength. The study also emphasizes the need for better representation of diabatic processes in reanalysis data.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Aleksa Stanković, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Rodrigo Caballero
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 821–837, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The article studies extreme winds near the surface over the North Atlantic Ocean. These winds are caused by storms that pass through this region. The strongest storms that have occurred in the winters from 1950–2020 are studied in detail and compared to weaker but still strong storms. The analysis shows that the storms associated with the strongest winds are preceded by another older storm that travelled through the same region and made the conditions suitable for development of extreme winds.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Edward Groot, Patrick Kuntze, Annette Miltenberger, and Holger Tost
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 779–803, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-779-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-779-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Deep convective clouds (thunderstorms), which may cause severe weather, tend to coherently organise into structured cloud systems. Accurate representation of these systems in models is difficult due to their complex dynamics and, in numerical simulations, the dependence of their dynamics on resolution. Here, the effect of convective organisation and geometry on their outflow winds (altitudes of 7–14 km) is investigated. Representation of their dynamics and outflows improves at higher resolution.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Stephen Outten and Richard Davy
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 753–762, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-753-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-753-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The North Atlantic Oscillation is linked to wintertime weather events over Europe. One feature often overlooked is how much the climate variability explained by the NAO has changed over time. We show that there has been a considerable increase in the percentage variance explained by the NAO over the 20th century and that this is not reproduced by 50 CMIP6 climate models, which are generally biased too high. This has implications for projections and prediction of weather events in the region.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Seraphine Hauser, Franziska Teubler, Michael Riemer, Peter Knippertz, and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 633–658, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-633-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Blocking over Greenland has substantial impacts on the weather and climate in mid- and high latitudes. This study applies a quasi-Lagrangian thinking on the dynamics of Greenland blocking and reveals two pathways of anticyclonic anomalies linked to the block. Moist processes were found to play a dominant role in the formation and maintenance of blocking. This emphasizes the necessity of the correct representation of moist processes in weather and climate models to realistically depict blocking.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Katharina Heitmann, Michael Sprenger, Hanin Binder, Heini Wernli, and Hanna Joos
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 537–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-537-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-537-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are coherently ascending air streams that occur in extratropical cyclones where they form precipitation and often affect the large-scale flow. We quantified the key characteristics and impacts of WCBs and linked them to different phases in the cyclone life cycle and to different WCB branches. A climatology of these metrics revealed that WCBs are most intense during cyclone intensification and that the cyclonic and anticyclonic WCB branches show distinct differences.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Konstantin Krüger, Andreas Schäfler, Martin Weissmann, and George C. Craig
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 491–509, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-491-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-491-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Initial conditions of current numerical weather prediction models insufficiently represent the sharp vertical gradients across the midlatitude tropopause. Observation-space data assimilation output is used to study the influence of assimilated radiosondes on the tropopause. The radiosondes reduce systematic biases of the model background and sharpen temperature and wind gradients in the analysis. Tropopause sharpness is still underestimated in the analysis, which may impact weather forecasts.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Lucas Fery and Davide Faranda
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 439–461, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-439-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-439-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we analyse warm-season derechos – a type of severe convective windstorm – in France between 2000 and 2022, identifying 38 events. We compare their frequency and features with other countries. We also examine changes in the associated large-scale patterns. We find that convective instability has increased in southern Europe. However, the attribution of these changes to natural climate variability, human-induced climate change or a combination of both remains unclear.
Lukas Jansing, Lukas Papritz, and Michael Sprenger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 463–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-463-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-463-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using an innovative approach, the descent of foehn is diagnosed from a Lagrangian perspective based on 15 kilometer-scale simulations combined with online trajectories. The descent is confined to distinct hotspots in the immediate lee of local mountain peaks and chains. Two detailed case studies reveal a varying wave regime to be associated with the descent. Furthermore, additional controlling factors, such as the diurnal cycle, likewise influence the descent activity.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alexander Scherrmann, Heini Wernli, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 419–438, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-419-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-419-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We show that the formation of Mediterranean cyclones follows the presence of cyclones over the North Atlantic. The distinct regions of cyclone activity in the Mediterranean in the different seasons can be linked to the atmospheric state, in particular the position of the polar jet over the North Atlantic. With this we now better understand the processes that lead to the formation of Mediterranean cyclones. We used a novel simulation framework in which we directly show and probe this connection.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Camille Cadiou and Pascal Yiou
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-612, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-612, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme winter cold temperatures in Europe have huge societal impacts. This study focuses on very extreme cold events, such as the record of winter 1963 in France, expected to become rarer due to climate change. We use a light and efficient rare event algorithm to simulate a large number of extreme cold winters over France, to analyse their characteristics. We find that despite fewer occurrences, their intensity remains steady. We analyse prevailing atmospheric circulation during these events.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Belinda Hotz, Lukas Papritz, and Matthias Röthlisberger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 323–343, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-323-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-323-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Analysing the vertical structure of temperature anomalies of recent record-breaking heatwaves reveals a complex four-dimensional interplay of anticyclone–heatwave interactions, with vertically strongly varying advective, adiabatic, and diabatic contributions to the respective temperature anomalies. The heatwaves featured bottom-heavy positive temperature anomalies, extending throughout the troposphere.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alexandre Tuel and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 263–292, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-263-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Warm and cold spells often have damaging consequences for agriculture, power demand, human health and infrastructure, especially when they occur over large areas and persist for a week or more. Here, we split the Northern Hemisphere extratropics into coherent regions where 3-week warm and cold spells in winter and summer are associated with the same large-scale circulation patterns. To understand their physical drivers, we analyse the associated circulation and temperature budget anomalies.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Marta Wenta, Christian M. Grams, Lukas Papritz, and Marc Federer
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 181–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-181-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-181-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study links air–sea interactions over the Gulf Stream to an atmospheric block in February 2019. We found that over 23 % of air masses that were lifted into the block by cyclones interacted with the Gulf Stream. As cyclones pass over the Gulf Stream, they cause intense surface evaporation events, preconditioning the environment for the development of cyclones. This implies that air–sea interactions over the Gulf Stream affect the large-scale dynamics in the North Atlantic–European region.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Yonatan Givon, Or Hess, Emmanouil Flaounas, Jennifer Louise Catto, Michael Sprenger, and Shira Raveh-Rubin
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 133–162, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-133-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A novel classification of Mediterranean cyclones is presented, enabling a separation between storms driven by different atmospheric processes. The surface impact of each cyclone class differs greatly by precipitation, winds, and temperatures, providing an invaluable tool to study the climatology of different types of Mediterranean storms and enhancing the understanding of their predictability, on both weather and climate scales.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Talia Tamarin-Brodsky and Nili Harnik
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 87–108, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-87-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-87-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Synoptic waves in the atmosphere tend to follow a typical Rossby wave lifecycle, involving a linear growth stage followed by nonlinear and irreversible Rossby wave breaking (RWB). Here we take a new approach to study RWB events and their fundamental relation to weather systems by combining a storm-tracking technique and an RWB detection algorithm. The synoptic-scale dynamics leading to RWB is then examined by analyzing time evolution composites of cyclones and anticyclones during RWB events.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Sebastian Schemm and Matthias Röthlisberger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 43–63, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-43-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-43-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change has started to weaken atmospheric circulation during summer in the Northern Hemisphere. However, there is low agreement on the processes underlying changes in, for example, the stationarity of weather patterns or the seasonality of the jet response to warming. This study examines changes during summertime in an idealised setting and confirms some important changes in hemisphere-wide wave and jet characteristics under warming.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Patrick Martineau, Swadhin K. Behera, Masami Nonaka, Hisashi Nakamura, and Yu Kosaka
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The representation of subweekly near-surface temperature variability trends over the Southern Hemisphere landmasses is compared across multiple atmospheric reanalyses. It is found that there is generally a good agreement concerning the positive trends affecting South Africa and Australia in the spring, and South America in the summer. A more efficient generation of subweekly temperature variance by horizontal temperature fluxes contributes to the observed rise.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Lea Eisenstein, Benedikt Schulz, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Peter Knippertz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 981–999, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-981-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-981-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mesoscale high-wind features within extratropical cyclones can cause immense damage. In Part 1 of this work, we introduced RAMEFI (RAndom-forest-based MEsoscale wind Feature Identification), an objective, flexible identification tool for these wind features based on a probabilistic random forest. Here, we use RAMEFI to compile a climatology of the features over 19 extended winter seasons over western and central Europe, focusing on relative occurrence, affected areas and further characteristics.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Tiina Nygård, Lukas Papritz, Tuomas Naakka, and Timo Vihma
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 943–961, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-943-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-943-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the general warming trend, wintertime cold-air outbreaks in Europe have remained nearly as extreme and as common as decades ago. In this study, we identify six principal cold anomaly types over Europe in 1979–2020. We show the origins of various physical processes and their contributions to the formation of cold wintertime air masses.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Andrea Marcheggiani and Thomas Spengler
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 927–942, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-927-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-927-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
There is a gap between the theoretical understanding and model representation of moist diabatic effects on the evolution of storm tracks. We seek to bridge this gap by exploring the relationship between diabatic and adiabatic contributions to changes in baroclinicity. We find reversed behaviours in the lower and upper troposphere in the maintenance of baroclinicity. In particular, our study reveals a link between higher moisture availability and upper-tropospheric restoration of baroclinicity.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alice Portal, Fabio D'Andrea, Paolo Davini, Mostafa E. Hamouda, and Claudia Pasquero
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 809–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-809-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-809-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The differences between climate models can be exploited to infer how specific aspects of the climate influence the Earth system. This work analyses the effects of a negative temperature anomaly over the Tibetan Plateau on the winter atmospheric circulation. We show that models with a colder-than-average Tibetan Plateau present a reinforcement of the eastern Asian winter monsoon and discuss the atmospheric response to the enhanced transport of cold air from the continent toward the Pacific Ocean.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Charlie C. Suitters, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Kevin I. Hodges, Reinhard K. H. Schiemann, and Duncan Ackerley
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 683–700, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-683-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-683-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric blocking describes large and persistent high surface pressure. In this study, the relationship between block persistence and smaller-scale systems is examined. Persistent blocks result from more interactions with small systems, but a block's persistence does not depend as strongly on the strength of these smaller features. This work is important because it provides more knowledge as to how blocks can be allowed to persist, which is something we still do not fully understand.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Emmanouil Flaounas, Leonardo Aragão, Lisa Bernini, Stavros Dafis, Benjamin Doiteau, Helena Flocas, Suzanne L. Gray, Alexia Karwat, John Kouroutzoglou, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Florian Pantillon, Claudia Pasquero, Platon Patlakas, María Ángeles Picornell, Federico Porcù, Matthew D. K. Priestley, Marco Reale, Malcolm J. Roberts, Hadas Saaroni, Dor Sandler, Enrico Scoccimarro, Michael Sprenger, and Baruch Ziv
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 639–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Cyclone detection and tracking methods (CDTMs) have different approaches in defining and tracking cyclone centers. This leads to disagreements on extratropical cyclone climatologies. We present a new approach that combines tracks from individual CDTMs to produce new composite tracks. These new tracks are shown to correspond to physically meaningful systems with distinctive life stages.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Deborah Morgenstern, Isabell Stucke, Georg J. Mayr, Achim Zeileis, and Thorsten Simon
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 489–509, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-489-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-489-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Two thunderstorm environments are described for Europe: mass-field thunderstorms, which occur mostly in summer, over land, and under similar meteorological conditions, and wind-field thunderstorms, which occur mostly in winter, over the sea, and under more diverse meteorological conditions. Our descriptions are independent of static thresholds and help to understand why thunderstorms in unfavorable seasons for lightning pose a particular risk to tall infrastructure such as wind turbines.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 427–447, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-427-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-427-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we analyse the generic atmospheric processes of very extreme, 100-year precipitation events in large central European river catchments and the corresponding differences to less extreme events, based on a large time series (~1200 years) of simulated but realistic daily precipitation events from the ECMWF. Depending on the catchment, either dynamical mechanisms or thermodynamic conditions or a combination of both distinguish 100-year events from less extreme precipitation events.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Seraphine Hauser, Franziska Teubler, Michael Riemer, Peter Knippertz, and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 399–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-399-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Blocking describes a flow configuration in the midlatitudes where stationary high-pressure systems block the propagation of weather systems. This study combines three individual perspectives that capture the dynamics and importance of various processes in the formation of a major blocking in 2016 from a weather regime perspective. In future work, this framework will enable a holistic view of the dynamics and the role of moist processes in different life cycle stages of blocked weather regimes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Charles G. Gertler, Paul A. O'Gorman, and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 361–379, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-361-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-361-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The relationship between the time-mean state of the atmosphere and aspects of atmospheric circulation drives general understanding of the atmospheric circulation. Here, we present new techniques to calculate local properties of the time-mean atmosphere and relate those properties to aspects of extratropical circulation with important implications for weather. This relationship should help connect changes to the atmosphere, such as under global warming, to changes in midlatitude weather.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Colin Manning, Martin Widmann, Douglas Maraun, Anne F. Van Loon, and Emanuele Bevacqua
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 309–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-309-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-309-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models differ in their representation of dry spells and high temperatures, linked to errors in the simulation of persistent large-scale anticyclones. Models that simulate more persistent anticyclones simulate longer and hotter dry spells, and vice versa. This information is important to consider when assessing the likelihood of such events in current and future climate simulations so that we can assess the plausibility of their future projections.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Franziska Teubler, Michael Riemer, Christopher Polster, Christian M. Grams, Seraphine Hauser, and Volkmar Wirth
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 265–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-265-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-265-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Weather regimes govern an important part of the sub-seasonal variability of the mid-latitude circulation. The year-round dynamics of blocked regimes in the Atlantic European region are investigated in over 40 years of data. We show that the dynamics between the regimes are on average very similar. Within the regimes, the main variability – starting from the characteristics of dynamical processes alone – dominates and transcends the variability in season and types of transitions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Acacia S. Pepler and Irina Rudeva
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 175–188, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-175-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-175-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In recent decades, cold fronts have rained less often in southeast Australia, which contributes to decreasing cool season rainfall. The largest changes in front dynamics are found to the north of the area where rain changes. Wet fronts have strong westerly winds that reach much further north than dry fronts do, and these fronts are becoming less common, linked to weakening subtropical winds and changes in the Southern Hemisphere circulation.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alexander Scherrmann, Heini Wernli, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 157–173, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-157-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the dynamical origin of the lower-atmospheric potential vorticity (PV; linked to the intensity of cyclones) in Mediterranean cyclones. We quantify the contribution of the cyclone and the environment by tracing PV backward in time and space and linking it to the track of the cyclone. We find that the lower-tropospheric PV is produced shortly before the cyclone's stage of highest intensity. We investigate the driving processes and use a global dataset and a process-resolving one.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Felix Jäger, Philip Rupp, and Thomas Birner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 49–60, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-49-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-49-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mid-latitude weather is dominated by the growth, breaking and decay of baroclinic waves and associated jet shifts. A way to study this process is via idealised life-cycle simulations, which are often classified as LC1 (anticyclonic breaking, poleward shift) or LC2 (cyclonic breaking, equatorward shift), depending on details of the initial state. We show that all systems exhibit predominantly anticyclonic character and poleward net shifts if multiple wave modes are allowed to grow simultaneously.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Cited articles
Abatzoglou, J. T. and Magnusdottir, G.: Planetary wave breaking and nonlinear reflection: Seasonal cycle and interannual variability, J. Climate, 19, 6139–6152, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3968.1, 2006. a
Adakudlu, M.: Impact of different initial conditions on the growth of polar lows: Idealised baroclinic channel simulations, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 138, 1297–1307, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.1867, 2012. a
Aebischer, U. and Schär, C.: Low-level potential vorticity and cyclogenesis to the lee of the Alps, J. Atmos. Sci., 55, 186–207, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1998)055<0186:LLPVAC>2.0.CO;2, 1998. a, b
Agustí-Panareda, A., Thorncroft, C. D., Craig, G. C., and Gray, S. L.: The extratropical transition of Hurricane Irene (1999): A potential-vorticity perspective, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 130, 1047–1074, https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.02.140, 2004. a, b, c
Ahmadi-Givi, F., Graig, G. C., and Plant, R. S.: The dynamics of a midlatitude cyclone with very strong latent-heat release, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 130, 295–323, https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.02.226, 2004. a
American Meteorology Society: Glossary of meteorology, https://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/Welcome (last access: 12 October 2023), 2023. a
Ancell, B. and Hakim, G. J.: Comparing adjoint- and ensemble-sensitivity analysis with applications to observation targeting, Mon. Weather Rev., 135, 4117–4134, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007MWR1904.1, 2007. a, b
Ancell, B. C. and Coleman, A. A.: New perspectives on ensemble sensitivity analysis with applications to a climatology of severe convection, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 103, E511–E530, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0321.1, 2022. a, b, c
Anderson, R. K., Ferguson, E. W., and Oliver, V. J.: The use of satellite pictures in weather analysis and forecasting, Technical Note No. 75, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 1966. a
Anderson, R. K., Ashman, J. P., Farr, G. R., Ferguson, E. W., Isayeva, G. N., Olvier, V. J., Parmenter, F. C., Popova, T. P., Skidmore, R. W., Smith, A. H., , and Veltishchev, N. F.: The use of satellite pictures in weather analysis and forecasting, Technical Note No. 124, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 1973. a
Anthes, R. A., Kuo, Y.-H., and Gyakum, J. R.: Numerical simulations of a case of explosive marine cyclogenesis, Mon. Weather Rev., 111, 1174–1188, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1983)111<1174:NSOACO>2.0.CO;2, 1983. a, b
Anwender, D., Harr, P. A., and Jones, S. C.: Predictability associated with the downstream impacts of the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones: Case studies, Mon. Weather Rev., 136, 3226–3247, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2249.1, 2008. a
Appenzeller, C. and Davies, H. C.: Structure of stratospheric intrusions into the troposphere, Nature, 358, 570–572, https://doi.org/10.1038/358570a0, 1992. a, b, c
Appenzeller, C. and Davies, H. C.: PV morphology of a frontal-wave development, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 58, 21–40, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01027554, 1996. a
Appenzeller, C., Davies, H. C., and Norton, W. A.: Fragmentation of stratospheric intrusions, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 101, 1435–1456, https://doi.org/10.1029/95JD02674, 1996. a, b
Archambault, H. M., Keyser, D., and Bosart, L. F.: Relationships between large-scale regime transitions and major cool-season precipitation events in the northeastern United States, Mon. Weather Rev., 138, 3454–3473, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3362.1, 2010. a
Atlas, R.: The role of oceanic fluxes and initial data in the numerical prediction of an intense coastal storm, Dynam. Atmos. Oceans, 10, 359–388, https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-0265(87)90025-X, 1987. a, b, c
Attinger, R., Spreitzer, E., Boettcher, M., Forbes, R., Wernli, H., and Joos, H.: Quantifying the role of individual diabatic processes for the formation of PV anomalies in a North Pacific cyclone, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 145, 2454–2476, https://doi.org/10.1002/QJ.3573, 2019. a, b, c, d
Attinger, R., Spreitzer, E., Boettcher, M., Wernli, H., and Joos, H.: Systematic assessment of the diabatic processes that modify low-level potential vorticity in extratropical cyclones, Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1073–1091, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1073-2021, 2021. a, b
Aubert, E. J.: On the release of latent heat as a factor in large scale atmospheric motions, J. Meteorol., 14, 527–542, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1957)014<0527:OTROLH>2.0.CO;2, 1957. a, b, c
Ayrault, F., Lalaurette, F., Joly, A., and Loo, C.: North Atlantic ultra high frequency variability, Tellus A, 47, 671–696, https://doi.org/10.1034/J.1600-0870.1995.00112.X, 1995. a
Azad, R. and Sorteberg, A.: The vorticity budgets of North Atlantic winter extratropical cyclone life cycles in MERRA reanalysis. Part I: Development phase, J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 3109–3128, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-13-0267.1, 2014a. a, b, c
Azad, R. and Sorteberg, A.: The vorticity budgets of North Atlantic winter extratropical cyclone life cycles in MERRA reanalysis. Part II: Decaying phase, J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 3129–3143, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-13-0266.1, 2014b. a, b
Bader, M. J., Forbes, G. S., Grant, J. R., Lilley, R. B. E., and Waters, A. J. (Eds.): Images in weather forecasting, Cambridge University Press, ISBN 10:0521629152, ISBN 13:978-0521629157, 1995. a
Badger, J. and Hoskins, B. J.: Simple initial value problems and mechanisms for baroclinic growth, J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 38–49, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2001)058<0038:SIVPAM>2.0.CO;2, 2001. a
Baehr, C., Pouponneau, B., Ayrault, F., and Joly, A.: Dynamical characterization of the FASTEX cyclogenesis cases, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 125, 3469–3494, https://doi.org/10.1002/QJ.49712556117, 1999. a
Balasubramanian, G. and Yau, M. K.: Baroclinic instability in a two-layer model with parameterized slantwise convection, J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 971–990, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1994)051<0971:BIIATL>2.0.CO;2, 1994a. a
Balasubramanian, G. and Yau, M. K.: The effects of convection on a simulated marine cyclone, J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 2397–2417, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1994)051<2397:TEOCOA>2.0.CO;2, 1994b. a, b, c
Balasubramanian, G. and Yau, M. K.: Explosive marine cyclogenesis in a three-layer model with a representation of slantwise convection: A sensitivity study, J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 533–550, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1995)052<0533:EMCIAT>2.0.CO;2, 1995. a
Bannon, P. R.: Linear development of quasi-geostrophic baroclinic disturbances with condensational heating, J. Atmos. Sci., 43, 2261–2274, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1986)043<2261:LDOQGB>2.0.CO;2, 1986. a, b, c
Bauer, M. and Del Genio, A. D.: Composite analysis of winter cyclones in a GCM: Influence on climatological humidity, J. Climate, 19, 1652–1672, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3690.1, 2006. a, b
Bauer, P., Thorpe, A., and Brunet, G.: The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction, Nature, 525, 47–55, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14956, 2015. a
Baumgart, M. and Riemer, M.: Processes governing the amplification of ensemble spread in a medium‐range forecast with large forecast uncertainty, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 145, 3252–3270, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3617, 2019. a, b
Baumgart, M., Riemer, M., Wirth, V., Teubler, F., and Lang, S. T. K.: Potential vorticity dynamics of forecast errors: A quantitative case study, Mon. Weather Rev., 146, 1405–1425, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-17-0196.1, 2018. a, b
Beare, R. J.: Boundary layer mechanisms in extratropical cyclones, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 133, 503–515, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.30, 2007. a
Bengtsson, L. and Shukla, J.: Integration of space and in situ observations to study global climate change, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 69, 1130–1143, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1988)069<1130:IOSAIS>2.0.CO;2, 1988. a
Bengtsson, L., Hodges, K. I., and Keenlyside, N.: Will extratropical storms intensify in a warmer climate?, J. Climate, 22, 2276–2301, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2678.1, 2009. a, b, c
Bennetts, D. A. and Hoskins, B. J.: Conditional symmetric instability – a possible explanation for frontal rainbands, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 105, 945–962, https://doi.org/10.1002/QJ.49710544615, 1979. a, b
Bentley, A. M., Keyser, D., and Bosart, L. F.: A dynamically based climatology of subtropical cyclones that undergo tropical transition in the North Atlantic basin, Mon. Weather Rev., 144, 2049–2068, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0251.1, 2016. a
Bergeron, T. and Swoboda, G.: Wellen und Wirbel an einer quasistationären Grenzfläche über Europa, in: vol. Serie 3, Veröff. Geophys. Inst. Leipzig, Metzger & Wittig, 1924. a
Berman, J. D. and Torn, R. D.: The impact of initial condition and warm conveyor belt forecast uncertainty on variability in the downstream waveguide in an ECWMF case study, Mon. Weather Rev., 147, 4071–4089, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-18-0333.1, 2019. a
Berry, G., Reeder, M. J., and Jakob, C.: A global climatology of atmospheric fronts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L04809, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL046451, 2011. a
Berthou, S., Roberts, M. J., Vannière, B., Ban, N., Belus̆ić, D., Caillaud, C., Crocker, T., de Vries, H., Dobler, A., Harris, D., Kendon, E. J., Landgren, O., and Manning, C.: Convection in future winter storms over Northern Europe, Env. Res. Lett., 17, 114055, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca03a, 2022. a
Bezold, W. V.: Zur Thermodynamik der Atmosphäre, in: Sitzungsberichte der Königlich Preussischen Akademie der Wissenschaften zu Berlin, Verlag der königlichen Akademie der Wissenschaften, Berlin, 1189–1206, 1888. a
Bigelow, F. H.: Studies on the thermodynamics of the atmosphere. I. Asymmetric cyclones and anticyclones in Europe and America, Mon. Weather Rev., 34, 9–16, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1906)34<9:SOTTOT>2.0.CO;2, 1906. a
Binder, H., Boettcher, M., Joos, H., and Wernli, H.: The role of warm conveyor belts for the intensification of extratropical cyclones in Northern Hemisphere winter, J. Atmos. Sci., 73, 3997–4020, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0302.1, 2016. a, b, c, d
Binder, H., Rivière, G., Arbogast, P., Maynard, K., Bosser, P., Joly, B., and Labadie, C.: Dynamics of forecast-error growth along cut-off Sanchez and its consequence for the prediction of a high-impact weather event over southern France, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 147, 3263–3285, https://doi.org/10.1002/QJ.4127, 2021. a
Binder, H., Joos, H., Sprenger, M., and Wernli, H.: Warm conveyor belts in present-day and future climate simulations — Part 2: Role of potential vorticity production for cyclone intensification, Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 19–37, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-19-2023, 2023. a
Bishop, C. H. and Thorpe, A. J.: Frontal wave stability during moist deformation frontogenesis. Part I: Linear wave dynamics, J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 852–873, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1994)051<0852:FWSDMD>2.0.CO;2, 1994a. a
Bishop, C. H. and Thorpe, A. J.: Frontal wave stability during moist deformation frontogenesis. Part II: The suppression of nonlinear wave development, J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 874–888, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1994)051<0874:FWSDMD>2.0.CO;2, 1994b. a
Bjerknes, J.: On the structure of moving cyclones, Mon. Weather Rev., 47, 95–99, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1919)47<95:OTSOMC>2.0.CO;2, 1919. a
Bjerknes, J. and Solberg, H.: Life cycle of cyclones and the polar front theory of atmospheric circulation, Geofyiske Publikasjoner, 3, 468–473, 1922. a
Blanchard, N., Pantillon, F., Chaboureau, J.-P., and Delanoë, J.: Organization of convective ascents in a warm conveyor belt, Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 617–634, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-617-2020, 2020. a, b, c
Blanchard, N., Pantillon, F., Chaboureau, J.-P., and Delanoë, J.: Mid-level convection in a warm conveyor belt accelerates the jet stream, Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 37–53, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-37-2021, 2021. a, b, c
Boer, G. J.: Climate change and the regulation of the surface moisture and energy budgets, Clim. Dynam., 8, 225–239, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00198617, 1993. a
Boettcher, M. and Wernli, H.: Life cycle study of a diabatic Rossby wave as a precursor to rapid cyclogenesis in the North Atlantic – dynamics and forecast performance, Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 1861–1878, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011MWR3504.1, 2011. a
Boettcher, M. and Wernli, H.: A 10-yr climatology of diabatic Rossby waves in the Northern Hemisphere, Mon. Weather Rev., 141, 1139–1154, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00012.1, 2013. a, b, c
Boettcher, M. and Wernli, H.: Diabatic Rossby waves in the Southern Hemisphere, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 141, 3106–3117, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2595, 2015. a
Boettcher, M., Schäfler, A., Sprenger, M., Sodemann, H., Kaufmann, S., Voigt, C., Schlager, H., Summa, D., Di Girolamo, P., Nerini, D., Germann, U., and Wernli, H.: Lagrangian matches between observations from aircraft, lidar and radar in a warm conveyor belt crossing orography, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5477–5498, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5477-2021, 2021. a
Bonatti, J. P. and Rao, V. B.: Moist baroclinic instability in the development of North Pacific and South American intermediate-scale disturbances, J. Atmos. Sci., 44, 2657–2667, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1987)044<2657:MBIITD>2.0.CO;2, 1987. a
Bony, S., Stevens, B., Frierson, D. M. W., Jakob, C., Kageyama, M., Pincus, R., Shepherd, T. G., Sherwood, S. C., Siebesma, A. P., Sobel, A. H., Watanabe, M., and Webb, M. J.: Clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity, Nat. Geosci., 8, 261–268, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2398, 2015. a
Booth, J. F., Thompson, L., Patoux, J., and Kelly, K. A.: Sensitivity of midlatitude storm intensification to perturbations in the sea surface temperature near the Gulf Stream, Mon. Weather Rev., 140, 1241–1256, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00195.1, 2012. a
Booth, J. F., Wang, S., and Polvani, L.: Midlatitude storms in a moister world: lessons from idealized baroclinic life cycle experiments, Clim. Dynam., 41, 787–802, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1472-3, 2013. a
Bosart, L. F. and Bartlo, J. A.: Tropical storm formation in a baroclinic environment, Mon. Weather Rev., 119, 1979–2013, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1991)119<1979:TSFIAB>2.0.CO;2, 1991. a
Bosart, L. F. and Lin, S. C.: A diagnostic analysis of the Presidents' Day storm of February 1979, Mon. Weather Rev., 112, 2148–2177, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1984)112<2148:ADAOTP>2.0.CO;2, 1984. a, b
Bosart, L. F., Moore, B. J., Cordeira, J. M., and Archambault, H. M.: Interactions of North Pacific tropical, midlatitude, and polar disturbances resulting in linked extreme weather events over North America in October 2007, Mon. Weather Rev., 145, 1245–1273, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0230.1, 2017. a
Böttger, H., Eckardt, M., and Katergiannakis, U.: Forecasting extratropical storms with hurricane intensity using satellite information, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 14, 1259–1265, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1975)014<1259:FESWHI>2.0.CO;2, 1975. a, b, c
Bourqui, M. S.: Stratosphere-troposphere exchange from the Lagrangian perspective: a case study and method sensitivities, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 2651–2670, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-6-2651-2006, 2006. a
Boutle, I. A., Beare, R. J., Belcher, S. E., and Plant, R. S.: A note on boundary-layer friction in baroclinic cyclones, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 133, 2137–2141, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.179, 2007. a
Boutle, I. A., Beare, R. J., Belcher, S. E., Brown, A. R., and Plant, R. S.: The moist boundary layer under a mid-latitude weather system, Bound.-Lay. Meteorol., 134, 367–386, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10546-009-9452-9, 2010. a
Boutle, I. A., Belcher, S. E., and Plant, R. S.: Moisture transport in midlatitude cyclones, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 360–373, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.783, 2011. a
Boutle, I. A., Belcher, S. E., and Plant, R. S.: Friction in mid-latitude cyclones: an Ekman-PV mechanism, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 16, 103–109, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl2.526, 2015. a
Boyle, J. S. and Bosart, L. F.: Cyclone–anticyclone couplets over North America. Part II: Analysis of a major cyclone event over the eastern United States, Mon. Weather Rev., 114, 2432–2465, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1986)114<2432:CCONAP>2.0.CO;2, 1986. a, b
Bracegirdle, T. J. and Gray, S. L.: An objective climatology of the dynamical forcing of polar lows in the Nordic seas, Int. J. Climatol., 28, 1903–1919, https://doi.org/10.1002/JOC.1686, 2008. a
Bracegirdle, T. J. and Gray, S. L.: The dynamics of a polar low assessed using potential vorticity inversion, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 135, 880–893, https://doi.org/10.1002/QJ.411, 2009. a
Brâncuş, M., Schultz, D. M., Antonescu, B., Dearden, C., and Ştefan, S.: Origin of strong winds in an explosive Mediterranean extratropical cyclone, Mon. Weather Rev., 147, 3649–3671, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-19-0009.1, 2019. a
Branscome, L. E. and Gutowski, W. J.: The impact of doubled CO2 on the energetics and hydrologic processes of mid-latitude transient eddies, Clim. Dynam., 8, 29–37, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00209341, 1992. a, b
Bresch, J. F., Reed, R. J., and Albright, M. D.: A polar-low development over the Bering Sea: Analysis, numerical simulation, and sensitivity experiments, Mon. Weather Rev., 125, 3109–3130, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<3109:APLDOT>2.0.CO;2, 1997. a, b, c
Browning, K. A.: Radar measurements of air motion near fronts, Weather, 26, 320–340, https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1477-8696.1971.tb04211.x, 1971. a
Browning, K. A.: Organization of clouds and precipitation in extratropical cyclones, in: Extratropical cyclones: The Erik Palmén memorial volume, American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA, 129–153, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-944970-33-8_8, 1990. a, b
Browning, K. A.: Evolution of a mesoscale upper tropospheric vorticity maximum and comma cloud from a cloud-free two-dimensional potential vorticity anomaly, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 119, 883–906, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49711951302, 1993. a
Browning, K. A.: On the nature of the mesoscale circulations at a kata-cold front, Tellus A, 47, 911–919, https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1995.00128.x, 1995. a
Browning, K. A.: The dry intrusion perspective of extra-tropical cyclone development, Meteorol. Appl., 4, 317–324, https://doi.org/10.1017/S1350482797000613, 1997. a
Browning, K. A.: The sting at the end of the tail: Damaging winds associated with extratropical cyclones, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol Soc., 130, 375–399, https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.02.143, 2004. a, b, c
Browning, K. A. and Mason, J.: Air motion and precipitation growth in frontal systems, Pure Appl. Geophys., 119, 577–593, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00878161, 1981. a
Browning, K. A. and Roberts, N. M.: Structure of a frontal cyclone, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 120, 1535–1557, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712052006, 1994. a, b, c, d
Browning, K. A., Panagi, P., and Vaughan, G.: Analysis of an ex-tropical cyclone after its reintensification as a warm-core extratropical cyclone, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 124, 2329–2356, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712455108, 1998. a
Brunt, D.: Some problems of modern meteorology, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 56, 345–350, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49705623604, 1930. a
Buchan, A.: A handy book of meteorology, William Blackwood and Sons, 1868. a
Büeler, D. and Pfahl, S.: Potential vorticity diagnostics to quantify effects of latent heating in extratropical cyclones. Part I: Methodology, J. Atmos. Sci., 74, 3567–3590, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-17-0041.1, 2017. a, b, c
Büeler, D. and Pfahl, S.: Potential vorticity diagnostics to quantify effects of latent heating in extratropical cyclones. Part II: Application to idealized climate change simulations, J. Atmos. Sci., 76, 1885–1902, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-18-0342.1, 2019. a, b
Bui, H. and Spengler, T.: On the influence of sea surface temperature distributions on the development of extratropical cyclones, J. Atmos. Sci., 78, 1173–1188, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-20-0137.1, 2021. a, b, c, d
Bukenberger, M., Rüdisühli, S., and Schemm, S.: Jet stream dynamics from a potential vorticity gradient perspective: The method and its application to a kilometre-scale simulation, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 149, 2409–2432, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4513, 2023. a, b
Burtt, T. G. and Junker, N. W.: A typical rapidly developing extratropical cyclone as viewed in SMS-II imagery, Mon. Weather Rev., 104, 489–490, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1976)104<0489:ATRDEC>2.0.CO;2, 1976. a
Camargo, S. J. and Wing, A. A.: Tropical cyclones in climate models, WIREs Clim. Change, 7, 211–237, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.373, 2016. a
Čampa, J. and Wernli, H.: A PV perspective on the vertical structure of mature midlatitude cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere, J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 725–740, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-11-050.1, 2012. a, b, c
Carlson, T. N.: Airflow through midlatitude cyclones and the comma cloud pattern, Mon. Weather Rev., 108, 1498–1509, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1980)108<1498:ATMCAT>2.0.CO;2, 1980. a
Carrera, M. L., Gyakum, J. R., and Zhang, D.-L.: A numerical case study of secondary marine cyclogenesis sensitivity to initial error and varying physical processes, Mon. Weather Rev., 127, 641–660, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1999)127<0641:ANCSOS>2.0.CO;2, 1999. a, b
Catto, J. L.: Extratropical cyclone classification and its use in climate studies, Rev. Geophys., 54, 486–520, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016RG000519, 2016. a
Catto, J. L., Shaffrey, L. C., and Hodges, K. I.: Can climate models capture the structure of extratropical cyclones?, J. Climate, 23, 1621–1635, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3318.1, 2010. a, b, c
Catto, J. L., Shaffrey, L. C., and Hodges, K. I.: Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones in a warming climate in the HiGEM high-resolution climate model, J. Climate, 24, 5336–5352, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4181.1, 2011. a
Catto, J. L., Ackerley, D., Booth, J. F., Champion, A. J., Colle, B. A., Pfahl, S., Pinto, J. G., Quinting, J. F., and Seiler, C.: The future of midlatitude cyclones, Curr. Clim. Change Rep., 5, 407–420, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-019-00149-4, 2019. a, b
Cavallo, S. M. and Hakim, G. J.: Potential vorticity diagnosis of a tropopause polar cyclone, Mon. Weather Rev., 137, 1358–1371, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2670.1, 2009. a
Cavallo, S. M. and Hakim, G. J.: Composite structure of tropopause polar cyclones, Mon. Weather Rev., 138, 3840–3857, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3371.1, 2010. a, b
Chaboureau, J.-P. and Thorpe, A. J.: Frontogenesis and the development of secondary wave cyclones in FASTEX, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 125, 925–940, https://doi.org/10.1002/QJ.49712555509, 1999. a, b
Chagnon, J. M. and Gray, S. L.: Horizontal potential vorticity dipoles on the convective storm scale, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 135, 1392–1408, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.468, 2009. a, b, c
Chagnon, J. M. and Gray, S. L.: A diabatically generated potential vorticity structure near the extratropical tropopause in three simulated extratropical cyclones, Mon. Weather Rev., 143, 2337–2347, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-14-00092.1, 2015. a, b
Chang, C. B., Perkey, D. J., and Kreitzberg, C. W.: A numerical case study of the effects of latent heating on a developing wave cyclone, J. Atmos. Sci., 39, 1555–1570, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1982)039<1555:ANCSOT>2.0.CO;2, 1982. a
Chang, E. K. M.: Projected significant increase in the number of extreme extratropical cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere, J. Climate, 30, 4915–4935, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0553.1, 2017. a
Chang, E. K. M., Lee, S., and Swanson, K. L.: Storm track dynamics, J. Climate, 15, 2163–2183, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<02163:STD>2.0.CO;2, 2002. a
Charney, J. G.: The dynamics of long waves in a baroclinic westerly current, J. Meteorol., 4, 136–162, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1947)004<0136:TDOLWI>2.0.CO;2, 1947. a, b
Charney, J. G. and Eliassen, A.: On the growth of the hurricane depression, J. Atmos. Sci., 21, 68–75, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1964)021<0068:OTGOTH>2.0.CO;2, 1964. a
Chemke, R., Ming, Y., and Yuval, J.: The intensification of winter mid-latitude storm tracks in the Southern Hemisphere, Nat. Clim. Change, 12, 553–557, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01368-8, 2022. a
Chen, S.-J. and Dell'Osso, L.: A numerical case study of east Asian coastal cyclogenesis, Mon. Weather Rev., 115, 477–487, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<0477:ANCSOE>2.0.CO;2, 1987. a, b
Chen, T.-C., Chang, C.-B., and Perkey, D. J.: Numerical study of an AMTEX'75 oceanic cyclone, Mon. Weather Rev., 111, 1818–1829, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1983)111<1818:NSOAAO>2.0.CO;2, 1983. a, b, c
Chen, T. C., Yau, M. K., and Kirshbaum, D. J.: Assessment of conditional symmetric instability from global reanalysis data, J. Atmos. Sci., 75, 2425–2443, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-17-0221.1, 2018. a, b
Clark, P. A., Browning, K. A., and Wang, C.: The sting at the end of the tail: Model diagnostics of fine-scale three-dimensional structure of the cloud head, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 131, 2263–2292, https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.04.36, 2005. a, b, c
Clarke, S. J., Gray, S. L., and Roberts, N. M.: Downstream influence of mesoscale convective systems. Part 1: Influence on forecast evolution, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 145, 2933–2952, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3593, 2019a. a
Clarke, S. J., Gray, S. L., and Roberts, N. M.: Downstream influence of mesoscale convective systems. Part 2: Influence on ensemble forecast skill and spread, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 145, 2953–2972, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3613, 2019b. a
Claud, C., Heinemann, G., Raustein, E., and McMurdie, L.: Polar low le Cygne: Satellite observations and numerical simulations, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 130, 1075–1102, https://doi.org/10.1256/QJ.03.72, 2004. a
Clough, S. and Testud, J.: The FRONTS 87 experiment and mesoscale frontal dynamics project, WMO Bull., 37, 276–281, 1988. a
Clough, S. A., Lean, H. W., Roberts, N. M., and Forbes, R. M.: Dynamical effects of ice sublimation in a frontal wave, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 126, 2405–2434, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712656804, 2000. a
Cohen, N. Y. and Boos, W. R.: Perspectives on moist baroclinic instability: Implications for the growth of monsoon depressions, J. Atmos. Sci., 73, 1767–1788, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0254.1, 2016. a, b
Cooper, I. M., Thorpe, A. J., and Bishop, C. H.: The role of diffusive effects on potential vorticity in fronts, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 118, 629–647, https://doi.org/10.1002/QJ.49711850603, 1992. a
Copernicus Climate Change Service: Complete ERA5 global atmospheric reanalysis, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.143582cf, 2023. a
Cordeira, J. M. and Bosart, L. F.: Cyclone interactions and evolutions during the “Perfect Storms” of late October and early November 1991, Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 1683–1707, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3537.1, 2011. a
Coronel, B., Ricard, D., Rivière, G., and Arbogast, P.: Role of moist processes in the tracks of idealized midlatitude surface cyclones, J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 2979–2996, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-14-0337.1, 2015. a
Craig, G. and Cho, H.-R.: Cumulus heating and CISK in the extratropical atmosphere. Part I: Polar lows and comma clouds, J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 2622–2640, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1988)045<2622:CHACIT>2.0.CO;2, 1988. a, b, c
Craig, G. C. and Cho, H.-R.: Cumulus convection and CISK in midlatitudes. Part II: Comma-cloud formation in cyclonic shear regions, J. Atmos. Sci., 49, 1318–1333, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1992)049<1318:CCACIM>2.0.CO;2, 1992. a
Crezee, B., Joos, H., and Wernli, H.: The microphysical building blocks of low-level potential vorticity anomalies in an idealized extratropical cyclone, J. Atmos. Sci., 74, 1403–1416, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-16-0260.1, 2017. a
Croci-Maspoli, M., Schwierz, C., and Davies, H. C.: Atmospheric blocking: Space-time links to the NAO and PNA, Clim. Dynam., 29, 713–725, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0259-4, 2007. a
Cullen, M.: The use of semigeostrophic theory to diagnose the behaviour of an atmospheric GCM, Fluids, 3, 72, https://doi.org/10.3390/fluids3040072, 2018. a
Dacre, H. F. and Gray, S. L.: The spatial distribution and evolution characteristics of North Atlantic cyclones, Mon. Weather Rev., 137, 99–115, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2491.1, 2009. a
Dacre, H. F. and Gray, S. L.: Quantifying the climatological relationship between extratropical cyclone intensity and atmospheric precursors, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 2322–2327, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50105, 2013. a, b, c, d
Dacre, H. F. and Pinto, J. G.: Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones: A review of where, when and why it occurs, npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 3, 48, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-020-00152-9, 2020. a
Dacre, H. F., Hawcroft, M. K., Stringer, M. A., and Hodges, K. I.: An extratropical cyclone atlas: A tool for illustrating cyclone structure and evolution characteristics, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 1497–1502, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00164.1, 2012. a
Dacre, H. F., Clark, P. A., Martínez-Alvarado, O., Stringer, M. A., and Lavers, D. A.: How do atmospheric rivers form?, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 96, 1243–1255, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00031.1, 2015. a
Dacre, H. F., Martínez-Alvarado, O., and Mbengue, C. O.: Linking atmospheric rivers and warm conveyor belt airflows, J. Hydrometeorol., 20, 1183–1196, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-18-0175.1, 2019. a, b
Dafis, S., Claud, C., Kotroni, V., Lagouvardos, K., and Rysman, J.: Insights into the convective evolution of Mediterranean tropical‐like cyclones, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 146, 4147–4169, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3896, 2020. a
Danard, M. B.: On the influence of released latent heat on cyclone development, J. Appl. Meteorol., 3, 27–37, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1964)003<0027:OTIORL>2.0.CO;2, 1964. a, b, c, d
Danard, M. B.: On the sensitivity of predictions of maritime cyclogenesis to convective precipitation and sea temperature, Atmos.-Ocean, 24, 52–72, https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.1986.9649240, 1986. a
Danard, M. B. and Ellenton, G. E.: Physical influences on east coast cyclogenesis, Atmos.-Ocean, 18, 65–82, https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.1980.9649078, 1980. a, b
Danielsen, E. F.: Stratospheric-tropospheric exchange based on radioactivity, ozone and potential vorticity, J. Atmos. Sci., 25, 502–518, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1968)025<0502:STEBOR>2.0.CO;2, 1968. a, b
Davies, H. C.: The quasigeostrophic omega equation: Reappraisal, refinements, and relevance, Mon. Weather Rev., 143, 3–25, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-14-00098.1, 2015. a
Davies, H. C. and Didone, M.: Diagnosis and dynamics of forecast error growth, Mon. Weather Rev., 141, 2483–2501, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00242.1, 2013. a, b, c, d
Davies, H. C. and Rossa, A. M.: PV frontogenesis and upper-tropospheric fronts, Mon. Weather Rev., 126, 1528–1539, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<1528:PFAUTF>2.0.CO;2, 1998. a
Davies, H. C. and Schär, C.: Orographic destabilization of a laterally sheared flow, Tellus A, 43, 321–333, https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1991.t01-4-00007.x, 1991. a
Davies, H. C. and Wernli, H.: Quasigeostrophic theory, in: Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences, 2nd Edn., edited by: North, G. R., Pyle, J., and Zhang, F., Academic Press, Oxford, 393–403, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-382225-3.00326-1, 2015. a
Davies, H. C. and Wernli, H.: Dynamical meteorology: The Swiss contribution, in: From weather observations to atmospheric and climate sciences in Switzerland: Celebrating 100 years of the Swiss Society for Meteorology, edited by: Willemse, S. and Furger, M., vdf Hochschulverlag AG an der ETH Zürich, 15–28, https://doi.org/10.3218/3746-3, 2016. a
Davies, H. C., Schär, C., and Wernli, H.: The palette of fronts and cyclones within a baroclinic wave development, J. Atmos. Sci., 48, 1666–1689, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1991)048<1666:TPOFAC>2.0.CO;2, 1991. a
Davini, P. and D'Andrea, F.: From CMIP3 to CMIP6: Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking simulation in present and future climate, J. Climate, 33, 10021–10038, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0862.1, 2020. a, b
Davis, C. A.: Simulations of subtropical cyclones in a baroclinic channel model, J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 2871–2892, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JAS3411.1, 2010. a, b, c
Davis, C. A. and Bosart, L. F.: Numerical simulations of the genesis of Hurricane Diana (1984). Part I: Control simulation, Mon. Weather Rev., 129, 1859–1881, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<1859:NSOTGO>2.0.CO;2, 2001. a
Davis, C. A. and Bosart, L. F.: Baroclinically induced tropical cyclogenesis, Mon. Weather Rev., 131, 2730–2747, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<2730:BITC>2.0.CO;2, 2003. a
Davis, C. A. and Bosart, L. F.: The TT problem: forecasting the tropical transition of cyclones, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 85, 1657–1662, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-85-11-1657, 2004. a
Davis, C. A. and Weisman, M. L.: Balanced dynamics of mesoscale vortices produced in simulated convective systems, J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 2005–2030, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1994)051<2005:BDOMVP>2.0.CO;2, 1994. a, b
Davolio, S., Miglietta, M. M., Moscatello, A., Pacifico, F., Buzzi, A., and Rotunno, R.: Numerical forecast and analysis of a tropical-like cyclone in the Ionian Sea, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 551–562, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-551-2009, 2009. a, b
Davolio, S., Fera, S. D., Laviola, S., Miglietta, M. M., and Levizzani, V.: Heavy precipitation over Italy from the Mediterranean storm “Vaia” in October 2018: Assessing the role of an atmospheric river, Mon. Weather Rev., 148, 3571–3588, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-20-0021.1, 2020. a
Dearden, C., Vaughan, G., Tsai, T., and Chen, J. P.: Exploring the diabatic role of ice microphysical processes in two North Atlantic summer cyclones, Mon. Weather Rev., 144, 1249–1272, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0253.1, 2016. a
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J.-J., Park, B.-K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J.-N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011. a
Demirdjian, R., Doyle, J. D., Finocchio, P. M., and Reynolds, C. A.: On the influence of surface latent heat fluxes on idealized extratropical cyclones, J. Atmos. Sci., 79, 2229–2242, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-22-0035.1, 2022. a
Demirdjian, R., Doyle, J. D., Finocchio, P. M., and Reynolds, C. A.: Preconditioning and intensification of upstream extratropical cyclones through surface fluxes, J. Atmos. Sci., 80, 1499–1517, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-22-0251.1, 2023. a, b, c
Demirtas, M. and Thorpe, A. J.: Sensitivity of short-range weather forecasts to local potential vorticity modifications, Mon. Weather Rev., 127, 922–939, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1999)127<0922:SOSRWF>2.0.CO;2, 1999. a, b, c
Deveson, A. C. L., Browning, K. A., and Hewson, T. D.: A classification of FASTEX cyclones using a height-attributable quasi-geostrophic vertical-motion diagnostic, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 128, 93–117, https://doi.org/10.1256/00359000260498806, 2002. a, b, c, d
De Vries, H., Methven, J., Frame, T. H. A., and Hoskins, B. J.: Baroclinic waves with parameterized effects of moisture interpreted using Rossby wave components, J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 2766–2784, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JAS3410.1, 2010. a
Dickinson, M. J., Bosart, L. F., Bracken, W. E., Hakim, G. J., Schultz, D. M., Bedrick, M. A., and Tyle, K. R.: The March 1993 superstorm cyclogenesis: Incipient phase synoptic- and convective-scale flow interaction and model performance, Mon. Weather Rev., 125, 3041–3072, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<3041:TMSCIP>2.0.CO;2, 1997. a
Dirks, R. A., Kuettner, J. P., and Moore, J. A.: Genesis of Atlantic Lows Experiment (GALE): An overview, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 69, 148–160, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1988)069<0148:GOALEA>2.0.CO;2, 1988. a
Dirren, S., Didone, M., and Davies, H. C.: Diagnosis of “forecast‐analysis””differences of a weather prediction system, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 2060, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL017986, 2003. a
Dixon, R. S., Browning, K. A., and Shutts, G. J.: The relation of moist symmetric instability and upper-level potential-vorticity anomalies to the observed evolution of cloud heads, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 128, 839–859, https://doi.org/10.1256/0035900021643719, 2002. a, b
Dolores-Tesillos, E., Teubler, F., and Pfahl, S.: Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LE – Part 1: Cyclone intensity, potential vorticity anomalies, and horizontal wind speed, Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 429–448, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-429-2022, 2022. a
Doswell III, C. A.: The distinction between large-scale and mesoscale contribution to severe convection: A case study example, Weather Forecast., 2, 3–16, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1987)002<0003:TDBLSA>2.0.CO;2, 1987. a, b
Doyle, J. D., Amerault, C., Reynolds, C. A., and Reinecke, P. A.: Initial condition sensitivity and predictability of a severe extratropical cyclone using a moist adjoint, Mon. Weather Rev., 142, 320–342, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00201.1, 2014. a
Doyle, J. D., Reynolds, C. A., and Amerault, C.: Adjoint sensitivity analysis of high-impact extratropical cyclones, Mon. Weather Rev., 147, 4511–4532, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-19-0055.1, 2019. a, b
Dritschel, D. G., Haynes, P. H., Juckes, M. N., and Shepherd, T. G.: The stability of a two-dimensional vorticity filament under uniform strain, J. Fluid Mech., 230, 647–665, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022112091000915, 1991. a
Drobinski, P., Ducrocq, V., Alpert, P., Anagnostou, E., Béranger, K., Borga, M., Braud, I., Chanzy, A., Davolio, S., Delrieu, G., Estournel, C., Boubrahmi, N. F., Font, J., Grubišić, V., Gualdi, S., Homar, V., Ivančan-Picek, B., Kottmeier, C., Kotroni, V., Lagouvardos, K., Lionello, P., Llasat, M. C., Ludwig, W., Lutoff, C., Mariotti, A., Richard, E., Romero, R., Rotunno, R., Roussot, O., Ruin, I., Somot, S., Taupier-Letage, I., Tintore, J., Uijlenhoet, R., and Wernli, H.: HyMeX: A 10-year multidisciplinary program on the Mediterranean water cycle, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 95, 1063–1082, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00242.1, 2014. a
Ducrocq, V., Braud, I., Davolio, S., Ferretti, R., Flamant, C., Jansa, A., Kalthoff, N., Richard, E., Taupier-Letage, I., Ayral, P.-A., Belamari, S., Berne, A., Borga, M., Boudevillain, B., Bock, O., Boichard, J.-L., Bouin, M.-N., Bousquet, O., Bouvier, C., Chiggiato, J., Cimini, D., Corsmeier, U., Coppola, L., Cocquerez, P., Defer, E., Delanoë, J., Girolamo, P. D., Doerenbecher, A., Drobinski, P., Dufournet, Y., Fourrié, N., Gourley, J. J., Labatut, L., Lambert, D., Coz, J. L., Marzano, F. S., Molinié, G., Montani, A., Nord, G., Nuret, M., Ramage, K., Rison, W., Roussot, O., Said, F., Schwarzenboeck, A., Testor, P., Baelen, J. V., Vincendon, B., Aran, M., and Tamayo, J.: HyMeX-SOP1: The field campaign dedicated to heavy precipitation and flash flooding in the northwestern Mediterranean, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 95, 1083–1100, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00244.1, 2014. a
Ducrocq, V., Davolio, S., Ferretti, R., Flamant, C., Santaner, V. H., Kalthoff, N., Richard, E., and Wernli, H.: Editorial – Introduction to the HyMeX special issue on `Advances in understanding and forecasting of heavy precipitation in the Mediterranean through the HyMeX SOP1 field campaign', Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 142, 1–6, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2856, 2016. a
Durran, D. R. and Gingrich, M.: Atmospheric predictability: Why butterflies are not of practical importance, J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 2476–2488, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-14-0007.1, 2014. a, b
Eady, E. T.: Long waves and cyclone waves, Tellus, 1, 33–52, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v1i3.8507, 1949. a, b, c
Eckhardt, S., Stohl, A., James, P., Forster, C., and Spichtinger, N.: A 15-Year climatology of warm conveyor belts, J. Climate, 17, 2018–237, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<0218:AYCOWC>2.0.CO;2, 2004. a
Eisenstein, L., Pantillon, F., and Knippertz, P.: Dynamics of sting-jet storm Egon over continental Europe: Impact of surface properties and model resolution, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 146, 186–210, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3666, 2020. a
Eliassen, A.: A method pioneered by Jerome Namias: Isentropic analysis and its aftergrowth, in: Namias Symposium, edited by: Roads, J. O., UC San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, New York, 70–81, 1986. a
Emanuel, K.: An air-sea interaction theory for tropical cyclones. Part I: Steady-state maintenance, J. Atmos. Sci., 43, 585–605, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1986)043<0585:AASITF>2.0.CO;2, 1986. a
Emanuel, K.: Genesis and maintenance of Mediterranean hurricanes, Adv. Geosci., 2, 217–220, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-2-217-2005, 2005. a
Emanuel, K. A.: On assessing local conditional symmetric instability from atmospheric soundings, Mon. Weather Rev., 111, 2016–2033, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1983)111<2016:OALCSI>2.0.CO;2, 1983. a, b
Emanuel, K. A.: Frontal circulations in the presence of small moist symmetric stability, J. Atmos. Sci., 42, 1062–1071, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1985)042<1062:FCITPO>2.0.CO;2, 1985. a, b
Emanuel, K. E. and Rotunno, R.: Polar lows as Arctic hurricanes, Tellus A, 41, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.1111/J.1600-0870.1989.TB00362.X, 1989. a, b, c
Ernst, J. A. and Matson, M.: A Mediterranean tropical storm?, Weather, 38, 332–337, https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1477-8696.1983.tb04818.x, 1983. a
Errico, R. M.: What is an adjoint model?, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 78, 2577–2591, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<2577:WIAAM>2.0.CO;2, 1997. a
Espy, J. P.: The philosophy of storms, C. C. Little and James Brown, https://openlibrary.org/works/OL2535310W/The_philosophy_of_storms?edition=key:/books/OL6958797M (last access: 10 October 2024), 1841. a
Evans, C., Wood, K. M., Aberson, S. D., Archambault, H. M., Milrad, S. M., Bosart, L. F., Corbosiero, K. L., Davis, C. A., Pinto, J. R. D., Doyle, J., Fogarty, C., Galarneau, T. J., Grams, C. M., Griffin, K. S., Gyakum, J., Hart, R. E., Kitabatake, N., Lentink, H. S., McTaggart-Cowan, R., Perrie, W., Quinting, J. F. D., Reynolds, C. A., Riemer, M., Ritchie, E. A., Sun, Y., and Zhang, F.: The extratropical transition of tropical cyclones. Part I: Cyclone evolution and direct impacts, Mon. Weather Rev., 145, 4317–4344, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-17-0027.1, 2017. a, b
Evans, J. L. and Guishard, M. P.: Atlantic subtropical storms. Part I: Diagnostic criteria and composite analysis, Mon. Weather Rev., 137, 2065–2080, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009MWR2468.1, 2009. a
Fan, Z., Xue, M., Zhu, K., Luo, L., Gao, Z., and Li, S.: Effects of pecipitation latent heating on structure and evolution of northeast China cold vortex: a PV perspective, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 128, e2023JD039016, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD039016, 2023. a
Fantini, M.: The influence of heat and moisture fluxes from the ocean on the development of baroclinic waves, J. Atmos. Sci., 47, 840–855, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1990)047<0840:TIOHAM>2.0.CO;2, 1990. a
Farrell, B.: Modal and non-modal baroclinic waves, J. Atmos. Sci., 41, 668–673, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1984)041<0668:MANMBW>2.0.CO;2, 1984. a
Fehlmann, R. and Davies, H. C.: Misforecasts of synoptic systems: Diagnosis via PV retrodiction, Mon. Weather Rev., 125, 2247–2264, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<2247:MOSSDV>2.0.CO;2, 1997. a, b
Fehlmann, R. and Davies, H. C.: Role of salient potential-vorticity elements in an event of frontal-wave cyclogenesis, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 125, 1801–1824, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712555716, 1999. a, b, c, d
Ficker, H.: Das Fortschreiten der Erwärmungen in Russland und Nordasien, Sitzungsbericht Akad. Wien, Abt. IIa, 120, 745–836, 1911. a
Field, P. R. and Wood, R.: Precipitation and cloud structure in midlatitude cyclones, J. Climate, 20, 233–254, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3998.1, 2007. a
Fink, A. H., Pohle, S., Pinto, J. G., and Knippertz, P.: Diagnosing the influence of diabatic processes on the explosive deepening of extratropical cyclones, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L07803, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051025, 2012. a, b, c
Fita, L. and Flaounas, E.: Medicanes as subtropical cyclones: The December 2005 case from the perspective of surface pressure tendency diagnostics and atmospheric water budget, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 144, 1028–1044, https://doi.org/10.1002/QJ.3273, 2018. a, b
Fita, L., Romero, R., Luque, A., Emanuel, K., and Ramis, C.: Analysis of the environments of seven Mediterranean tropical-like storms using an axisymmetric, nonhydrostatic, cloud resolving model, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 7, 41–56, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-7-41-2007, 2007. a
Flack, D. L. A., Rivière, G., Musat, I., Roehrig, R., Bony, S., Delanoë, J., Cazenave, Q., and Pelon, J.: Representation by two climate models of the dynamical and diabatic processes involved in the development of an explosively deepening cyclone during NAWDEX, Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 233–253, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-233-2021, 2021. a
Flaounas, E., Raveh-Rubin, S., Wernli, H., Drobinski, P., and Bastin, S.: The dynamical structure of intense Mediterranean cyclones, Clim. Dynam., 44, 2411–2427, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2330-2, 2015. a
Flaounas, E., Fita, L., Lagouvardos, K., and Kotroni, K.: Heavy rainfall in Mediterranean cyclones, Part II: Water budget, precipitation efficiency and remote water sources, Clim. Dynam., 53, 2539–2555, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04639-x, 2019. a
Flaounas, E., Gray, S. L., and Teubler, F.: A process-based anatomy of Mediterranean cyclones: From baroclinic lows to tropical-like systems, Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 255–279, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-255-2021, 2021. a, b, c
Flaounas, E., Davolio, S., Raveh-Rubin, S., Pantillon, F., Miglietta, M. M., Gaertner, M. A., Hatzaki, M., Homar, V., Khodayar, S., Korres, G., Kotroni, V., Kushta, J., Reale, M., and Ricard, D.: Mediterranean cyclones: Current knowledge and open questions on dynamics, prediction, climatology and impacts, Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 173–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-173-2022, 2022. a, b, c, d
Folland, C. K., Karl, T. R., and Vinnikov, K. Y.: Observed climate variations and change, in: Climate change: The IPCC scientific assessment. Report prepared for IPCC by Working Group 1, edited by: Houghton, J. T., Jenkins, G. J., and Ephraums, J. J., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 195–238, ISBN 0521407206, https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/218515?ln=en&v=pdf (last access: 10 October 2024), 1990. a, b
Folland, C. K., Karl, T. R., Christy, J. R., Clarke, R. A., Gruza, G. V., Jouzel, J., Mann, M. E., Oerlemans, J., Salinger, M. J., and Wang, S.-W.: Observed climate variability and change, in: Climate change 2001: The scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Houghton, J. T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D. J., Noguer, M., van der Linden, P. J., Dai, X., Masell, K., and Johnson, C. A., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 99–181, ISBN 0521807670, ISBN 052101495, 2001. a
Føre, I. and Nordeng, T. E.: A polar low observed over the Norwegian Sea on 3–4 March 2008: High-resolution numerical experiments, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 138, 1983–1998, https://doi.org/10.1002/QJ.1930, 2012. a
Føre, I., Kristjansson, J. E., Saetra, O., Breivik, O., Røsting, B., and Shapiro, M.: The full life cycle of a polar low over the Norwegian Sea observed by three research aircraft flights, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 1659–1673, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.825, 2011. a, b
Føre, I., Kristjansson, J. E., Kolstad, E. W., Bracegirdle, T. J., Saetra, O., and Røsting, B.: A `hurricane-like' polar low fuelled by sensible heat flux: High-resolution numerical simulations, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 138, 1308–1324, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.1876, 2012. a
Forster, C. and Wirth, V.: Radiative decay of idealized stratospheric filaments in the troposphere, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 105, 10169–10184, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JD900052, 2000. a
Fritsch, J. M. and Carbone, R. E.: Improving quantitative precipitation forecasts in the warm season: A USWRP research and development strategy, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 85, 955–966, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-85-7-955, 2004. a
Galarneau, T. J., Davis, C. A., and Shapiro, M. A.: Intensification of Hurricane Sandy (2012) through extratropical warm core seclusion, Mon. Weather Rev., 141, 4296–4321, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00181.1, 2013. a
Gall, R.: The effects of released latent heat in growing baroclinic waves, J. Atmos. Sci., 33, 1686–1701, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1976)033<1686:TEORLH>2.0.CO;2, 1976. a, b
Gambo, K.: The instability of medium-scale disturbances in a moist atmosphere, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn. Ser. II, 54, 191–207, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj1965.54.4_191, 1976. a
Gentine, P., Pritchard, M., Rasp, S., Reinaudi, G., and Yacalis, G.: Could machine learning break the convection parameterization deadlock?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 5742–5751, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078202, 2018. a
Gibson, J. K., Kållberg, P., Uppala, S., Nomura, A., Hernandez, A., and Serrano, E.: ERA description, ECMWF re-analysis project report series 1, Tech. rep., European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK, https://www.ecmwf.int/en/elibrary/74605-era-description (last access: 1 July 2024), 1997. a
Givon, Y., Hess, O., Flaounas, E., Catto, J. L., Sprenger, M., and Raveh-Rubin, S.: Process-based classification of Mediterranean cyclones using potential vorticity, Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 133–162, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-133-2024, 2024. a
Gouget, H., Vaughan, G., Marenco, A., and Smit, H. G. J.: Decay of a cut-off low and contribution to stratosphere-troposphere exchange, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 126, 1117–1141, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712656414, 2000. a
Graf, M. A., Wernli, H., and Sprenger, M.: Objective classification of extratropical cyclogenesis, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 143, 1047–1061, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2989, 2017. a
Grams, C. M. and Archambault, H. M.: The key role of diabatic outflow in amplifying the midlatitude flow: A representative case study of weather systems surrounding Western North Pacific extratropical transition, Mon. Weather Rev., 144, 3847–3869, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0419.1, 2016. a, b
Grams, C. M. and Blumer, S. R.: European high-impact weather caused by the downstream response to the extratropical transition of North Atlantic Hurricane Katia (2011), Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 8738–8748, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066253, 2015. a
Grams, C. M., Wernli, H., Böttcher, M., Čampa, J., Corsmeier, U., Jones, S. C., Keller, J. H., Lenz, C.-J., and Wiegand, L.: The key role of diabatic processes in modifying the upper-tropospheric wave guide: A North Atlantic case-study, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 2174–2193, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.891, 2011. a, b
Grams, C. M., Jones, S. C., Davis, C. A., Harr, P. A., and Weissmann, M.: The impact of Typhoon Jangmi (2008) on the midlatitude flow. Part I: Upper-level ridgebuilding and modification of the jet, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 139, 2148–2164, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2091, 2013. a, b
Grams, C. M., Lang, S. T. K., and Keller, J. H.: A quantitative assessment of the sensitivity of the downstream midlatitude flow response to extratropical transition of tropical cyclones, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 9521–9529, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065764, 2015. a
Grams, C. M., Magnusson, L., and Madonna, E.: An atmospheric dynamics perspective on the amplification and propagation of forecast error in numerical weather prediction models: A case study, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 144, 2577–2591, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3353, 2018. a, b
Gray, M. E. B.: The impact of mesoscale convective-system potential-vorticity anomalies on numerical-weather-prediction forecasts, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 127, 73–88, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712757105, 2001. a
Gray, M. E. B., Shutts, G. J., and Craig, G. C.: The role of mass transfer in describing the dynamics of mesoscale convective systems, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 124, 1183–1207, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712454808, 1998. a
Gray, S. L.: Mechanisms of midlatitude cross-tropopause transport using a potential vorticity budget approach, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 111, D17113, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006259, 2006. a
Gray, S. L. and Dacre, H. F.: Classifying dynamical forcing mechanisms using a climatology of extratropical cyclones, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 132, 1119–1137, https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.05.69, 2006. a, b
Gray, S. L. and Thorpe, A. J.: Parcel theory in three dimensions and the calculation of SCAPE, Mon. Weather Rev., 129, 1656–1672, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<1656:PTITDA>2.0.CO;2, 2001. a, b
Gray, S. L. and Wernli, H.: Dynamics and predictability of middle latitude weather systems and their higher and lower latitude interactions, in: Seamless prediction of the earth system: from minutes to months, WMO-No. 1156, edited by: Brunet, G., Jones, S., and Ruti, P., pp. 77–99, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, ISBN 978-92-63-11156-2, https://sdgs.un.org/publications/seamless-prediction-earth-system-minutes-months-17944 (last access: 5 October 2024), 2015. a
Gray, S. L., Martínez-Alvarado, O., Baker, L. H., and Clark, P. A.: Conditional symmetric instability in sting-jet storms, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 1482–1500, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.859, 2011. a, b
Gray, S. L., Dunning, C. M., Methven, J., Masato, G., and Chagnon, J. M.: Systematic model forecast error in Rossby wave structure, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 2979–2987, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059282, 2014. a, b
Gray, S. L., Hodges, K. I., Vautrey, J. L., and Methven, J.: The role of tropopause polar vortices in the intensification of summer Arctic cyclones, Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1303–1324, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1303-2021, 2021a. a
Gray, S. L., Martínez-Alvarado, O., Ackerley, D., and Suri, D.: Development of a prototype real-time sting-jet precursor tool for forecasters, Weather, 76, 369–373, https://doi.org/10.1002/WEA.3889, 2021b. a
Green, J. S. A., Ludlam, F. H., and McIlveen, J. F. R.: Isentropic relative-flow analysis and the parcel theory, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 92, 210–219, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49709239204, 1966. a, b, c
Grise, K. M., Medeiros, B., Benedict, J. J., and Olson, J. G.: Investigating the influence of cloud radiative effects on the extratropical storm tracks, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 7700–7707, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083542, 2019. a, b, c
Grønås, S. and Kvamstø, N. G.: Numerical simulations of the synoptic conditions and development of Arctic outbreak polar lows, Tellus A, 47, 797–814, https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1995.00121.x, 1995. a, b, c
Grønås, S., Kvamstø, N. G., and Raustein, E.: Numerical simulation of the northern Germany storm of 27–28 August 1989, Tellus A, 46, 635–650, https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1994.t01-4-00006.x, 1994. a, b, c
Guishard, M. P., Evans, J. L., and Hart, R. E.: Atlantic subtropical storms. Part II: Climatology, J. Climate, 22, 3574–3594, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2346.1, 2009. a
Guo, J., Fu, G., Li, Z., Shao, L., Duan, Y., and Wang, J.: Analyses and numerical modeling of a polar low over the Japan Sea on 19 December 2003, Atmos. Res., 85, 395–412, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2007.02.007, 2007. a, b
Gutowski, W. J., Branscome, L. E., and Stewart, D. A.: Life cycles of moist baroclinic eddies, J. Atmos. Sci., 49, 306–319, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1992)049<0306:LCOMBE>2.0.CO;2, 1992. a, b
Gutowski, W. J., Nendick, P. C., and Branscome, L. E.: Sensitivity of transient eddies to climate change in the CCC general circulation model, Atmos.-Ocean, 33, 753–770, https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.1995.9649552, 1995. a
Gyakum, J. R.: On the evolution of the QE II Storm. I: Synoptic aspects, Mon. Weather Rev., 111, 1137–1155, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1983)111<1137:OTEOTI>2.0.CO;2, 1983a. a, b, c
Gyakum, J. R.: On the evolution of the QE II Storm. II: Dynamic and thermodynamic structure, Mon. Weather Rev., 111, 1156–1173, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1983)111<1156:OTEOTI>2.0.CO;2, 1983b. a, b
Gyakum, J. R.: Meteorological precursors to the explosive intensification of the QE II storm, Mon. Weather Rev., 119, 1105–1131, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1991)119<1105:MPTTEI>2.0.CO;2, 1991. a
Gyakum, J. R. and Barker, E. S.: A case study of explosive subsynoptic-scale cyclogenesis, Mon. Weather Rev., 116, 2225–2253, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1988)116<2225:ACSOES>2.0.CO;2, 1988. a
Hadlock, R. and Kreitzberg, C. W.: The Experiment on Rapidly Intensifying Cyclones over the Atlantic (ERICA) field study: Objectives and plans, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 69, 1309–1320, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1988)069<1309:TEORIC>2.0.CO;2, 1988. a
Hakim, G. J. and Canavan, A. K.: Observed cyclone–anticyclone tropopause vortex asymmetries, J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 231–240, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-3353.1, 2005. a
Hakim, G. J. and Torn, R. D.: Ensemble synoptic analysis, in: Synoptic–dynamic meteorology and weather analysis and forecasting: A tribute to Fred Sanders, edited by: Bosart, L. F. and Bluestein, H. B., American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA, 147–161, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-933876-68-2_7, 2008. a
Halley, E.: An historical account of the trade winds, and monsoons, observable in the seas between and near the Tropicks, with an attempt to assign the physical cause of the said winds, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. Lond., 16, 153–168, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstl.1686.0026, 1687. a
Hardy, S., Methven, J., Schwendike, J., Harvey, B., and Cullen, M.: Examining the dynamics of a Borneo vortex using a balance approximation tool, Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 1019–1043, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1019-2023, 2023. a, b, c
Harr, P. A., Elsberry, R. L., Hogan, T. F., and Clune, W. M.: Forecasts of North Pacific maritime cyclones with the Navy operational global atmospheric prediction system, Weather Forecast., 7, 456–467, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1992)007<0456:FONPMC>2.0.CO;2, 1992. a
Harrold, T. W.: Mechanisms influencing the distribution of precipitation within baroclinic disturbances, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 99, 232–251, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49709942003, 1973. a, b
Haualand, K. F. and Spengler, T.: Direct and indirect effects of surface fluxes on moist baroclinic development in an idealized framework, J. Atmos. Sci., 77, 3211–3225, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-19-0328.1, 2020. a
Haualand, K. F. and Spengler, T.: Relative importance of tropopause structure and diabatic heating for baroclinic instability, Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 695–712, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-695-2021, 2021. a
Hauser, S., Teubler, F., Riemer, M., Knippertz, P., and Grams, C. M.: Towards a holistic understanding of blocked regime dynamics through a combination of complementary diagnostic perspectives, Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 399–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-399-2023, 2023. a
Hawcroft, M., Dacre, H., Forbes, R., Hodges, K., Shaffrey, L., and Stein, T.: Using satellite and reanalysis data to evaluate the representation of latent heating in extratropical cyclones in a climate model, Clim. Dynam., 48, 2255–2278, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3204-6, 2017. a
Hayashi, Y. and Golder, D. G.: The effects of condensational heating on midlatitude transient waves in their mature stage: Control experiments with a GFDL general circulation model, J. Atmos. Sci., 38, 2532–2539, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1981)038<2532:TEOCHO>2.0.CO;2, 1981. a
Haynes, P. H. and McIntyre, M. E.: On the evolution of vorticity and potential vorticity in the presence of diabatic heating and frictional or other forces, J. Atmos. Sci., 44, 828–841, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1987)044<0828:OTEOVA>2.0.CO;2, 1987. a, b, c
Haynes, P. H. and McIntyre, M. E.: On the conservation and impermeability theorems for potential vorticity, J. Atmos. Sci., 47, 2021–2031, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1990)047<2021:OTCAIT>2.0.CO;2, 1990. a, b
Hedley, M. and Yau, M. K.: Anelastic modeling of explosive cyclogenesis, J. Atmos. Sci., 48, 711–727, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1991)048<0711:AMOEC>2.0.CO;2, 1991. a
Heifetz, E., Bishop, C. H., Hoskins, B. J., and Methven, J.: The counter-propagating Rossby-wave perspective on baroclinic instability. I: Mathematical basis, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 130, 211–231, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.200413059610, 2004. a
Held, I. M. and Soden, B. J.: Water vapor feedback and global warming, Annu. Rev. Energ. Environ., 25, 441–475, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.energy.25.1.441, 2000. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz‐Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020. a, b
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Biavati, G., Horányi, A., Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Dee, D., and Thépaut, J.-N.: Complete ERA5 from 1940: Fifth generation of ECMWF atmospheric reanalyses of the global climate, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.143582cf, 2023. a
Hewson, T. D.: The FRONTS 92 experiment: A quicklook atlas, Tech. rep., Joint Centre for Mesoscale Meteorology (JCMM), Internal Report No. 15, Met Office Library, UK, https://library.metoffice.gov.uk/Portal/Default/en-GB/RecordView/Index/254996 (last access: 1 July 2024), 1993. a
Hewson, T. D. and Neu, U.: Cyclones, windstorms and the IMILAST project, Tellus A, 67, 27128, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v67.27128, 2015. a
Hines, K. M. and Mechoso, C. R.: Influence of surface drag on the evolution of fronts, Mon. Weather Rev., 121, 1152–1176, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1993)121<1152:IOSDOT>2.0.CO;2, 1993. a, b
Hinkelmann, K.: Ein numerisches Experiment mit den primitiven Gleichungen, in: The atmosphere and the sea in motion, Rossby memorial volume, edited by Bolin, B., Rockefeller Institute Press, New York, 486–500, ISBN 9780874700336, 1959. a
Hirata, H., Kawamura, R., Kato, M., and Shinoda, T.: Influential role of moisture supply from the Kuroshio/Kuroshio Extension in the rapid development of an extratropical cyclone, Mon. Weather Rev., 143, 4126–4144, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0016.1, 2015. a
Hirata, H., Kawamura, R., Kato, M., and Shinoda, T.: Response of rapidly developing extratropical cyclones to sea surface temperature variations over the western Kuroshio–Oyashio confluence region, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 3843–3858, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024391, 2016. a
Hobbs, P. V., Matejka, T. J., Herzegh, P. H., Locatelli, J. D., and Houze, R. A.: The mesoscale and microscale structure and organization of clouds and precipitation in midlatitude cyclones. I: A case study of a cold front, J. Atmos. Sci., 37, 568–596, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1980)037<0568:TMAMSA>2.0.CO;2, 1980. a
Holt, T. R. and Chang, S. W.: A numerical investigation of the effects of timing of diabatic processes in the coastal cyclogenesis of GALE IOP 2, Mon. Weather Rev., 121, 1007–1029, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1993)121<1007:ANIOTE>2.0.CO;2, 1993. a
Holton, J. R. and Hakim, G. J.: An introduction to dynamic meteorology, in 5th Edn., Academic Press, Boston, ISBN 978-0-12-384866-6, https://doi.org/10.1016/C2009-0-63394-8, 2013. a, b
Homar, V. and Stensrud, D. J.: Sensitivities of an intense Mediterranean cyclone: Analysis and validation, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 130, 2519–2540, https://doi.org/10.1256/QJ.03.85, 2004. a, b, c
Hoskins, B. J.: Effect of diabatic processes on transient midlatitude waves, in: Workshop on diagnostics of diabatic processes, ECMWF, 85–99, https://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/elibrary/1980/10033-effect-diabatic-processes-transient-mid-latitude-waves.pdf (last access: 1 July 2024), 1980. a
Hoskins, B. J.: The mathematical theory of frontogenesis, Annu. Rev. Fluid Mech., 14, 131–151, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.fl.14.010182.001023, 1982. a
Hoskins, B. J.: Theory of extratropical cyclones, in: Extratropical cyclones: The Erik Palmén memorial volume, edited by: Newton, C. W. and Holopainen, E. O., American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA, 63–80, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-944970-33-8_5, 1990. a, b
Hoskins, B. J. and Coutinho, M. M.: Moist singular vectors and the predictability of some high impact European cyclones, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 131, 581–601, https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.04.48, 2005. a
Hoskins, B. J. and Hodges, K. I.: New perspectives on the Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks, J. Atmos. Sci., 59, 1041–1061, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2002)059<1041:NPOTNH>2.0.CO;2, 2002. a
Hoskins, B. J. and Simmons, A. J.: A multi-layer spectral model and the semi-implicit method, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 101, 637–655, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49710142918, 1975. a
Hoskins, B. J. and Valdes, P. J.: On the existence of storm-tracks, J. Atmos. Sci., 47, 1854–1864, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1990)047<1854:OTEOST>2.0.CO;2, 1990. a
Hoskins, B. J. and West, N. V.: Baroclinic waves and frontogenesis. Part II: Uniform potential vorticity jet flows-cold and warm fronts, J. Atmos. Sci., 36, 1663–1680, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1979)036<1663:BWAFPI>2.0.CO;2, 1979. a, b
Huo, Z., Zhang, D., and Gyakum, J.: The life cycle of the intense IOP‐14 storm during CASP II. Part II: Sensitivity experiments, Atmos.-Ocean, 34, 81–102, https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.1996.9649558, 1996. a, b
Hurley, J. V. and Boos, W. R.: A global climatology of monsoon low-pressure systems, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 141, 1049–1064, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2447, 2015. a
Jacobs, N. A., Raman, S., Lackmann, G. M., and Childs Jr., P. P.: The influence of the Gulf Stream induced SST gradients on the US East Coast winter storm of 24–25 January 2000, Int. J. Remote Sens., 29, 6145–6174, https://doi.org/10.1080/01431160802175561, 2008. a
Jansa, A., Alpert, P., Arbogast, P., Buzzi, A., Ivancan-Picek, B., Kotroni, V., Llasat, M. C., Ramis, C., Richard, E., Romero, R., and Speranza, A.: MEDEX: A general overview, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1965–1984, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1965-2014, 2014. a
Johnson, A. and Wang, X.: Observation impact study of an Arctic cyclone associated with a Tropopause Polar Vortex (TPV)-induced Rossby wave initiation event, Mon. Weather Rev., 149, 1577–1591, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-20-0285.1, 2021. a
Joly, A. and Thorpe, A. J.: The stability of time-dependent flows: An application to fronts in developing baroclinic waves, J. Atmos. Sci., 48, 163–183, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1991)048<0163:TSOTDF>2.0.CO;2, 1991. a
Joly, A., Browning, K. A., Bessemoulin, P., Cammas, J.-P., Caniaux, G., Chalon, J.-P., Clough, S. A., Dirks, R., Emanuel, K. A., Eymard, L., Gall, R., Hewson, T. D., Hildebrand, P. H., Jorgensen, D., Lalaurette, F., Langland, R. H., Lemaître, Y., Mascart, P., Moore, J. A., Persson, P. O., Roux, F., Shapiro, M. A., Snyder, C., Toth, Z., and Wakimoto, R. M.: Overview of the field phase of the Fronts and Atlantic Storm-Track EXperiment (FASTEX) project, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 125, 3131–3163, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712556103, 1999. a
Jones, S. and Golding, B.: HIWeather: A research activity on High Impact Weather within the World Weather Research Programme, Tech. rep., World Meteorological Organization, https://library.wmo.int/idurl/4/37208 (last access: 1 July 2024), 2014. a
Jones, S. C., Harr, P. A., Abraham, J., Bosart, L. F., Bowyer, P. J., Evans, J. L., Hanley, D. E., Hanstrum, B. N., Hart, R. E., Lalaurette, F., Sinclair, M. R., Smith, R. K., and Thorncroft, C.: The extratropical transition of tropical cyclones: Forecast challenges, current understanding, and future directions, Weather Forecast., 18, 1052–1092, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2003)018<1052:TETOTC>2.0.CO;2, 2003. a, b, c, d
Joos, H. and Forbes, R. M.: Impact of different IFS microphysics on a warm conveyor belt and the downstream flow evolution, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 142, 2727–2739, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2863, 2016. a
Joos, H., Sprenger, M., Binder, H., Beyerle, U., and Wernli, H.: Warm conveyor belts in present-day and future climate simulations – Part 1: Climatology and impacts, Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 133–155, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-133-2023, 2023. a
Judt, F.: Insights into atmospheric predictability through global convection-permitting model simulations, J. Atmos. Sci., 75, 1477–1497, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-17-0343.1, 2018. a, b
Kalnay, E., Kanamitsu, M., Kistler, R., Collins, W., Deaven, D., Gandin, L., Iredell, M., Saha, S., White, G., Woollen, J., Zhu, Y., Leetmaa, A., Reynolds, R., Chelliah, M., Ebisuzaki, W., Higgins, W., Janowiak, J., Mo, K. C., Ropelewski, C., Wang, J., Jenne, R., and Joseph, D.: The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 77, 437–471, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2, 1996. a
Kautz, L.-A., Martius, O., Pfahl, S., Pinto, J. G., Ramos, A. M., Sousa, P. M., and Woollings, T.: Atmospheric blocking and weather extremes over the Euro-Atlantic sector – a review, Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 305–336, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-305-2022, 2022. a
Keller, J. H., Grams, C. M., Riemer, M., Archambault, H. M., Bosart, L., Doyle, J. D., Evans, J. L., Galarneau, T. J., Griffin, K., Harr, P. A., Kitabatake, N., McTaggart-Cowan, R., Pantillon, F., Quinting, J. F., Reynolds, C. A., Ritchie, E. A., Torn, R. D., and Zhang, F.: The extratropical transition of tropical cyclones. Part II: Interaction with the midlatitude flow, downstream impacts, and implications for predictability, Mon. Weather Rev., 147, 1077–1106, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-17-0329.1, 2019. a, b, c, d
Keshtgar, B., Voigt, A., Hoose, C., Riemer, M., and Mayer, B.: Cloud-radiative impact on the dynamics and predictability of an idealized extratropical cyclone, Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 115–132, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-115-2023, 2023. a, b, c
Kirshbaum, D. J., Merlis, T. M., Gyakum, J. R., and McTaggart-Cowan, R.: Sensitivity of idealized moist baroclinic waves to environmental temperature and moisture content, J. Atmos. Sci., 75, 337–360, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-17-0188.1, 2018. a, b, c
Kleinschmidt, E.: Über Aufbau und Entstehung von Zyklonen II (On the structure and formation of cyclones), Meteor. Rundschau, 3, 54–61, 1950b. a
Knippertz, P. and Fink, A. H.: Dry-season precipitation in tropical West Africa and its relation to forcing from the extratropics, Mon. Weather Rev., 136, 3579–3596, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2295.1, 2008. a
Knippertz, P. and Martin, J. E.: The role of dynamic and diabatic processes in the generation of cut-off lows over northwest Africa, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 96, 3–19, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-006-0217-4, 2007. a, b
Knippertz, P., Fink, A. H., and Pohle, S.: Reply, Mon. Weather Rev., 137, 3151–3157, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009MWR3006.1, 2009. a
Kocin, P. J., Schumacher, P. N., Morales, R. F., and Uccellini, L. W.: Overview of the 12–14 March 1993 superstorm, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 76, 165–182, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1995)076<0165:OOTMS>2.0.CO;2, 1995. a
Kohl, M. and O'Gorman, P. A.: The diabatic Rossby vortex: Growth rate, length scale, and the wave–vortex transition, J. Atmos. Sci., 79, 2739–2755, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-22-0022.1, 2022. a
Kouroutzoglou, J., Flocas, H. A., Keay, K., Simmonds, I., and Hatzaki, M.: Climatological aspects of explosive cyclones in the Mediterranean, Int. J. Climatol., 31, 1785–1802, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2203, 2011. a
Kristjánsson, J. E.: Model simulations of an intense meso-β scale cyclone The role of condensation parameterization, Tellus A, 42, 78–91, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v42i1.11861, 1990. a
Kristjánsson, J. E. and Thorsteinsson, S.: The structure and evolution of an explosive cyclone near Iceland, Tellus A, 47, 656–670, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v47i5.11560, 1995. a, b, c
Kunkel, D., Hoor, P., and Wirth, V.: The tropopause inversion layer in baroclinic life-cycle experiments: the role of diabatic processes, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 541–560, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-541-2016, 2016. a, b
Kunz, A., Konopka, P., Müller, R., and Pan, L. L.: Dynamical tropopause based on isentropic potential vorticity gradients, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 116, D01110, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014343, 2011. a
Kuo, Y.-H. and Low-Nam, S.: Prediction of nine explosive cyclones over the western Atlantic Ocean with a regional model, Mon. Weather Rev., 118, 3–25, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1990)118<0003:PONECO>2.0.CO;2, 1990. a, b, c, d
Kuo, Y.-H., Low-Nam, S., and Reed, R. J.: Effects of surface energy fluxes during the early development and rapid intensification stages of seven explosive cyclones in the western Atlantic, Mon. Weather Rev., 119, 457–476, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1991)119<0457:EOSEFD>2.0.CO;2, 1991a. a
Kuo, Y.-H., Shapiro, M. A., and Donall, E. G.: The interaction between baroclinic and diabatic processes in a numerical simulation of a rapidly intensifying extratropical marine cyclone, Mon. Weather Rev., 119, 368–384, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1991)119<0368:TIBBAD>2.0.CO;2, 1991b. a, b, c
Kutzbach, G.: The thermal theory of cyclones – A history of meteorological thought in the nineteenth century, American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-940033-80-8, 1979. a, b
Lackmann, G. M.: Cold-frontal potential vorticity maxima, the low-level jet, and moisture transport in extratropical cyclones, Mon. Weather Rev., 130, 59–74, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2002)130<0059:CFPVMT>2.0.CO;2, 2002. a
Lackmann, G. M.: The south-central U.S. flood of May 2010: Present and future, J. Climate, 26, 4688–4709, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00392.1, 2013. a
Lagouvardos, K., Kotroni, V., and Defer, E.: The 21–22 January 2004 explosive cyclogenesis over the Aegean Sea: Observations and model analysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 133, 1519–1531, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.121, 2007. a
Lamberson, W. S., Torn, R. D., Bosart, L. F., and Magnusson, L.: Diagnosis of the source and evolution of medium-range forecast errors for extratropical cyclone Joachim, Weather Forecast., 31, 1197–1214, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-16-0026.1, 2016. a, b
Langland, R. H., Elsberry, R. L., and Errico, R. M.: Adjoint sensitivity of an idealized extratropical cyclone with moist physical processes, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 122, 1891–1920, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712253608, 1996. a, b
Lapeyre, G. and Held, I. M.: The role of moisture in the dynamics and energetics of turbulent baroclinic eddies, J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 1693–1710, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2004)061<1693:TROMIT>2.0.CO;2, 2004. a
Laurila, T. K., Sinclair, V. A., and Gregow, H.: The extratropical transition of Hurricane Debby (1982) and the subsequent development of an intense windstorm over Finland, Mon. Weather Rev., 148, 377–401, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-19-0035.1, 2020. a
Leung, T. Y., Leutbecher, M., Reich, S., and Shepherd, T. G.: Impact of the mesoscale range on error growth and the limits to atmospheric predictability, J. Atmos. Sci., 77, 3769–3779, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-19-0346.1, 2020. a
Lewis, H. W., Castillo Sanchez, J. M., Arnold, A., Fallmann, J., Saulter, A., Graham, J., Bush, M., Siddorn, J., Palmer, T., Lock, A., Edwards, J., Bricheno, L., Martínez-de la Torre, A., and Clark, J.: The UKC3 regional coupled environmental prediction system, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2357–2400, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2357-2019, 2019. a
Lim, E.-P. and Simmonds, I.: Explosive cyclone development in the Southern Hemisphere and a comparison with Northern Hemisphere events, Mon. Weather Rev., 130, 2188–2209, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2002)130<2188:ECDITS>2.0.CO;2, 2002. a
Liou, C.-S. and Elsberry, R. L.: Heat budgets of analyses and forecasts of an explosively deepening maritime cyclone, Mon. Weather Rev., 115, 1809–1824, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1809:HBOAAF>2.0.CO;2, 1987. a, b
Loomis, E.: On the storm which was experienced throughout the United States about the 20th of December, 1836, Transactions of the American Philosophical Society, 7, 125–163, https://doi.org/10.2307/1005304, 1841. a
Lorenz, E. N.: Numerical evaluation of moist available energy, Tellus, 31, 230–235, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1979.tb00901.x, 1979. a, b
Ludwig, P., Pinto, J. G., Reyers, M., and Gray, S. L.: The role of anomalous SST and surface fluxes over the southeastern North Atlantic in the explosive development of windstorm Xynthia, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 140, 1729–1741, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2253, 2014. a
Ma, X., Chang, P., Saravanan, R., Montuoro, R., Nakamura, H., Wu, D., Lin, X., and Wu, L.: Importance of resolving Kuroshio front and eddy influence in simulating the North Pacific storm track, J. Climate, 30, 1861–1880, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0154.1, 2017. a
Maddison, J. W., Gray, S. L., Martínez-Alvarado, O., and Williams, K. D.: Upstream cyclone influence on the predictability of block onsets over the Euro-Atlantic region, Mon. Weather Rev., 147, 1277–1296, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-18-0226.1, 2019. a
Maddison, J. W., Gray, S. L., Martínez-Alvarado, O., and Williams, K. D.: Impact of model upgrades on diabatic processes in extratropical cyclones and downstream forecast evolution, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 146, 1322–1350, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3739, 2020. a
Madonna, E., Limbach, S., Aebi, C., Joos, H., Wernli, H., and Martius, O.: On the co-occurrence of warm conveyor belt outflows and PV streamers, J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 3668–3673, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-14-0119.1, 2014a. a
Madonna, E., Wernli, H., Joos, H., and Martius, O.: Warm conveyor belts in the ERA-Interim dataset (1979–2010). Part I: Climatology and potential vorticity evolution, J. Climate, 27, 3–26, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00720.1, 2014b. a, b, c
Mailhot, J. and Chouinard, C.: Numerical forecasts of explosive winter storms: Sensitivity experiments with a meso-α scale model, Mon. Weather Rev., 117, 1311–1343, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1989)117<1311:NFOEWS>2.0.CO;2, 1989. a, b
Mailhot, J., Hanley, D., Bilodeau, B., and Hertzman, O.: A numerical case study of a polar low in the Labrador Sea, Tellus A, 48, 383–402, https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1996.t01-2-00003.x, 1996. a, b, c
Mak, M.: On moist quasi-geostrophic baroclinic instability, J. Atmos. Sci., 39, 2028–2037, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1982)039<2028:OMQGBI>2.0.CO;2, 1982. a, b
Mak, M.: Cyclogenesis in a conditionally unstable moist baroclinic atmosphere, Tellus A, 46, 14–33, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v46i1.15424, 1994. a, b
Malardel, S., Joly, A., Courbet, F., and Courtier, P. H.: Nonlinear evolution of ordinary frontal waves induced by low-level potential vorticity anomalies, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 119, 681–713, https://doi.org/10.1002/QJ.49711951205, 1993. a, b, c
Mallet, I., Arbogast, P., Baehr, C., Cammas, J.-P., and Mascart, P.: Effects of a low-level precursor and frontal stability on cyclogenesis during FASTEX IOP17, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 125, 3415–3437, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712556115, 1999a. a, b, c
Manabe, S.: On the contribution of heat released by condensation to the change in pressure pattern, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn. Ser. II, 34, 308–320, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj1923.34.6_308, 1956. a, b
Manning, C., Kendon, E. J., Fowler, H. J., Roberts, N. M., Berthou, S., Suri, D., and Roberts, M. J.: Extreme windstorms and sting jets in convection-permitting climate simulations over Europe, Clim. Dynam., 58, 2387–2404, https://doi.org/10.1007/S00382-021-06011-4, 2021. a
Manobianco, J.: Explosive east coast cyclogenesis over the west-central North Atlantic ocean: A composite study derived from ECMWF operational analyses, Mon. Weather Rev., 117, 2365–2383, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1989)117<2365:EECCOT>2.0.CO;2, 1989a. a
Manobianco, J.: Explosive east coast cyclogenesis: Numerical experimentation and model-based diagnostics, Mon. Weather Rev., 117, 2384–2405, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1989)117<2384:EECCNE>2.0.CO;2, 1989b. a
Marciano, C. G., Lackmann, G. M., and Robinson, W. A.: Changes in U.S. east coast cyclone dynamics with climate change, J. Climate, 28, 468–484, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00418.1, 2015. a
Margules, M.: Über die Energie der Stürme, Jahrbücher der K. K. Centralanstalt für Meteorologie und Erdmagnetismus, 40 pp., 1905. a
Martínez-Alvarado, O. and Plant, R. S.: Parametrized diabatic processes in numerical simulations of an extratropical cyclone, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 140, 1742–1755, https://doi.org/10.1002/QJ.2254, 2014. a, b
Martínez-Alvarado, O., Weidle, F., and Gray, S. L.: Sting jets in simulations of a real cyclone by two mesoscale models, Mon. Weather Rev., 138, 4054–4075, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3290.1, 2010. a
Martínez-Alvarado, O., Baker, L. H., Gray, S. L., Methven, J., and Plant, R. S.: Distinguishing the cold conveyor belt and sting jet airstreams in an intense extratropical cyclone, Mon. Weather Rev., 142, 2571–2595, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00348.1, 2014a. a, b, c
Martínez-Alvarado, O., Joos, H., Chagnon, J., Boettcher, M., Gray, S. L., Plant, R. S., Methven, J., and Wernli, H.: The dichotomous structure of the warm conveyor belt, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 140, 1809–1824, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2276, 2014b. a
Martínez-Alvarado, O., Gray, S. L., and Methven, J.: Diabatic processes and the evolution of two contrasting summer extratropical cyclones, Mon. Weather Rev., 144, 3251–3276, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0395.1, 2016a. a, b
Martínez-Alvarado, O., Madonna, E., Gray, S. L., and Joos, H.: A route to systematic error in forecasts of Rossby waves, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 142, 196–210, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2645, 2016b. a, b, c, d
Martínez-Alvarado, O., Gray, S. L., Hart, N. C. G., Clark, P. A., Hodges, K., and Roberts, M. J.: Increased wind risk from sting-jet windstorms with climate change, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 044002, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaae3a, 2018. a
Mass, C. F. and Schultz, D. M.: The structure and evolution of a simulated midlatitude cyclone over land, Mon. Weather Rev., 121, 889–917, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1993)121<0889:TSAEOA>2.0.CO;2, 1993. a, b, c
Massacand, A. C. and Davies, H. C.: Interannual variability of the extratropical Northern Hemisphere and the potential vorticity wave guide, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 2, 61–71, https://doi.org/10.1006/asle.2001.0036, 2001. a
Massacand, A. C., Wernli, H., and Davies, H. C.: Heavy precipitation on the Alpine southside: An upper-level precursor, Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 1435–1438, https://doi.org/10.1029/98GL50869, 1998. a
Massacand, A. C., Wernli, H., and Davies, H. C.: Influence of upstream diabatic heating upon an Alpine event of heavy precipitation, Mon. Weather Rev., 129, 2822–2828, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<2822:IOUDHU>2.0.CO;2, 2001. a, b
Mazoyer, M., Ricard, D., Rivière, G., Delanoë, J., Arbogast, P., Vié, B., Lac, C., Cazenave, Q., and Pelon, J.: Microphysics impacts on the warm conveyor belt and ridge building of the NAWDEX IOP6 cyclone, Mon. Weather Rev., 149, 3961–3980, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-21-0061.1, 2021. a
Mazoyer, M., Ricard, D., Rivière, G., Delanoë, J., Riette, S., Augros, C., Borderies, M., and Vié, B.: Impact of mixed-phase cloud parameterization on warm conveyor belts and upper-tropospheric dynamics, Mon. Weather Rev., 151, 1073–1091, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-22-0045.1, 2023. a
McCabe, G. J., Clark, M. P., and Serreze, M. C.: Trends in Northern Hemisphere surface cyclone frequency and intensity, J. Climate, 14, 2763–2768, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<2763:TINHSC>2.0.CO;2, 2001. a
McDonald, J. E.: Early developments in the theory of the saturated adiabatic process, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 44, 203–211, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477-44.4.203, 1963. a
McMurdie, L. A. and Katsaros, K. B.: Satellite-derived integrated water vapor and rain intensity patterns: Indicators for rapid cyclogenesis, Weather Forecast., 11, 230–245, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1996)011<0230:SDIWVA>2.0.CO;2, 1996. a, b
McTaggart-Cowan, R., Galarneau, T. J., Bosart, L. F., and Milbrandt, J. A.: Development and tropical transition of an Alpine lee cyclone. Part II: Orographic influence on the development pathway, Mon. Weather Rev., 138, 2308–2326, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009MWR3148.1, 2010a. a
McTaggart-Cowan, R., Galarneau, T. J., Bosart, L. F., and Milbrandt, J. A.: Development and tropical transition of an Alpine lee cyclone. Part I: Case analysis and evaluation of numerical guidance, Mon. Weather Rev., 138, 2281–2307, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009MWR3147.1, 2010b. a
Meier, F. and Knippertz, P.: Dynamics and predictability of a heavy dry-season precipitation event over West Africa – sensitivity experiments with a global model, Mon. Weather Rev., 137, 189–206, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2622.1, 2009. a
Messmer, M. and Simmonds, I.: Global analysis of cyclone-induced compound precipitation and wind extreme events, Weather Clim. Extrem., 32, 100324, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100324, 2021. a
Meteorological Office: A course in elementary meteorology, https://digital.nmla.metoffice.gov.uk/IO_7ef899d6-8adf-4ad6-aeb9-d211b402f8e4/ (last access: 1 July 2024), 1962. a
Methven, J.: Potential vorticity in warm conveyor belt outflow, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 141, 1065–1071, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2393, 2015. a, b
Miglietta, M. M. and Rotunno, R.: Development mechanisms for Mediterranean tropical‐like cyclones (medicanes), Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 145, 1444–1460, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3503, 2019. a
Miglietta, M. M., Cerrai, D., Laviola, S., Cattani, E., and Levizzani, V.: Potential vorticity patterns in Mediterranean “hurricanes”, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 2537–2545, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL072670, 2017. a, b
Miltenberger, A. K., Pfahl, S., and Wernli, H.: An online trajectory module (version 1.0) for the nonhydrostatic numerical weather prediction model COSMO, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1989–2004, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1989-2013, 2013. a
Mo, R.: Prequel to the stories of warm conveyor belts and atmospheric rivers: The moist tongues identified by Rossby and his collaborators in the 1930s, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 103, E1019–E1040, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0276.1, 2022. a
Montgomery, M. T. and Farrell, B. F.: Polar low dynamics, J. Atmos. Sci., 49, 2484–2505, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1992)049<2484:PLD>2.0.CO;2, 1992. a, b, c
Moore, B. J., Bosart, L. F., Keyser, D., and Jurewicz, M. L.: Synoptic-scale environments of predecessor rain events occurring east of the Rocky Mountains in association with Atlantic Basin tropical cyclones, Mon. Weather Rev., 141, 1022–1047, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00178.1, 2013. a
Moore, G. W. K., Reader, M. C., York, J., and Sathiyamoorthy, S.: Polar lows in the Labrador Sea – a case study, Tellus A, 48, 17–40, https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1996.00002.x, 1996. a
Moore, R. W. and Montgomery, M. T.: Reexamining the dynamics of short-scale, diabatic Rossby waves and their role in midlatitude moist cyclogenesis, J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 754–768, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2004)061<0754:RTDOSD>2.0.CO;2, 2004. a
Moore, R. W. and Montgomery, M. T.: Analysis of an idealized, three-dimensional diabatic Rossby vortex: A coherent structure of the moist baroclinic atmosphere, J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 2703–2725, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS3472.1, 2005. a
Moore, R. W., Montgomery, M. T., and Davies, H. C.: The integral role of a diabatic Rossby vortex in a heavy snowfall event, Mon. Weather Rev., 136, 1878–1897, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007MWR2257.1, 2008. a
Moreno-Ibáñez, M.: Polar low research: recent developments and promising courses of research, Front. Earth Sci., 12, 1368179, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2024.1368179, 2024. a, b
Moreno-Ibáñez, M., Laprise, R., and Gachon, P.: Recent advances in polar low research: Current knowledge, challenges and future perspectives, Tellus A, 73, 1–31, https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2021.1890412, 2021. a, b
Morgenstern, O. and Davies, H. C.: Disruption of an upper-level PV-streamer by orographic and cloud-diabatic effects, Contrib. Atmos. Phys., 72, 173–186, 1999. a
Mullen, S. L. and Baumhefner, D. P.: Sensitivity of numerical simulations of explosive oceanic cyclogenesis to changes in physical parameterizations, Mon. Weather Rev., 116, 2289–2329, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1988)116<2289:SONSOE>2.0.CO;2, 1988. a, b
Müller, A. and Névir, P.: Using the concept of the dynamic state index for a scale-dependent analysis of atmospheric blocking, Meteorol. Z., 28, 487–498, https://doi.org/10.1127/metz/2019/0963, 2019. a
Namias, J.: The use of isentropic analysis in short term forecasting, J. Aeronaut. Sci., 6, 295–298, https://doi.org/10.2514/8.860, 1939. a, b
Neu, U., Akperov, M. G., Bellenbaum, N., Benestad, R., Blender, R., Caballero, R., Cocozza, A., Dacre, H. F., Feng, Y., Fraedrich, K., Grieger, J., Gulev, S., Hanley, J., Hewson, T., Inatsu, M., Keay, K., Kew, S. F., Kindem, I., Leckebusch, G. C., Liberato, M. L. R., Lionello, P., Mokhov, I. I., Pinto, J. G., Raible, C. C., Reale, M., Rudeva, I., Schuster, M., Simmonds, I., Sinclair, M., Sprenger, M., Tilinina, N. D., Trigo, I. F., Ulbrich, S., Ulbrich, U., Wang, X. L., and Wernli, H.: IMILAST: A community effort to intercompare extratropical cyclone detection and tracking algorithms, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 94, 529–547, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00154.1, 2013. a
Névir, P.: Ertel's vorticity theorems, the particle relabelling symmetry and the energy-vorticity theory of fluid mechanics, Meteorol. Z., 13, 485–498, https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2004/0013-0485, 2004. a
Newell, R. E., Newell, N. E., Zhu, Y., and Scott, C.: Tropospheric rivers? – A pilot study, Geophys. Res. Lett., 19, 2401–2404, https://doi.org/10.1029/92GL02916, 1992. a
Nitta, T. and Ogura, Y.: Numerical simulation of the development of the intermediate-scale cyclone in a moist model atmosphere, J. Atmos. Sci., 29, 1011–1025, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1972)029<1011:NSOTDO>2.0.CO;2, 1972. a
Nordeng, T. E. and Rasmussen, E. A.: A most beautiful polar low – a case-study of a polar low development in the Bear-Island region, Tellus A, 44, 81–99, https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1992.00001.x, 1992. a, b, c, d
Nordeng, T. E. and Røsting, B.: A polar low named Vera: the use of potential vorticity diagnostics to assess its development, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 1790–1803, https://doi.org/10.1002/QJ.886, 2011. a, b, c
Nuss, W. A. and Anthes, R. A.: A numerical investigation of low-level processes in rapid cyclogenesis, Mon. Weather Rev., 115, 2728–2743, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<2728:ANIOLL>2.0.CO;2, 1987. a
Oda, M. and Kanehisa, H.: Analytical solutions of initial value problem of diabatic Rossby waves, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn. Ser. II, 89, 161–169, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2011-205, 2011. a
Oertel, A., Boettcher, M., Joos, H., Sprenger, M., Konow, H., Hagen, M., and Wernli, H.: Convective activity in an extratropical cyclone and its warm conveyor belt – a case-study combining observations and a convection-permitting model simulation, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 145, 1406–1426, https://doi.org/10.1002/QJ.3500, 2019. a
Oertel, A., Sprenger, M., Joos, H., Boettcher, M., Konow, H., Hagen, M., and Wernli, H.: Observations and simulation of intense convection embedded in a warm conveyor belt – how ambient vertical wind shear determines the dynamical impact, Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 89–110, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-89-2021, 2021. a, b, c
Oertel, A., Miltenberger, A. K., Grams, C. M., and Hoose, C.: Interaction of microphysics and dynamics in a warm conveyor belt simulated with the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) model, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8553–8581, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8553-2023, 2023a. a
Oertel, A., Pickl, M., Quinting, J. F., Hauser, S., Wandel, J., Magnusson, L., Balmaseda, M., Vitart, F., and Grams, C. M.: Everything hits at once: how remote rainfall matters for the prediction of the 2021 North American heat wave, Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2022GL100958, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100958, 2023b. a
O'Gorman, P. A. and Dwyer, J. G.: Using machine learning to parameterize moist convection: Potential for modeling of climate, climate change, and extreme events, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 10, 2548–2563, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001351, 2018. a
O'Gorman, P. A. and Schneider, T.: Energy of midlatitude transient eddies in idealized simulations of changed climates, J. Climate, 21, 5797–5806, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2099.1, 2008. a
O'Gorman, P. A., Merlis, T. M., and Singh, M. S.: Increase in the skewness of extratropical vertical velocities with climate warming: Fully nonlinear simulations versus moist baroclinic instability, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 144, 208–217, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3195, 2018. a
Oruba, L., Lapeyre, G., and Rivière, G.: On the poleward motion of midlatitude cyclones in a baroclinic meandering jet, J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 2629–2649, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-12-0341.1, 2013. a
Owen, L. E., Catto, J. L., Stephenson, D. B., and Dunstone, N. J.: Compound precipitation and wind extremes over Europe and their relationship to extratropical cyclones, Weather Clim. Extrem., 33, 100342, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100342, 2021. a
Palmen, E.: On the dynamics of cold air outbreaks in the westerlies, Tech. rep., University of Chicago, Department of Meteorolgy, 1953. a
Palmer, T.: The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: Looking back (more than) 25 years and projecting forward 25 years, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 145, 12–24, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3383, 2019. a
Papritz, L. and Pfahl, S.: Importance of latent heating in mesocyclones for the decay of cold air outbreaks: A numerical process study from the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean, Mon. Weather Rev., 144, 315–336, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0268.1, 2016. a
Papritz, L. and Spengler, T.: Analysis of the slope of isentropic surfaces and its tendencies over the North Atlantic, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 141, 3226–3238, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2605, 2015. a
Papritz, L., Rouges, E., Aemisegger, F., and Wernli, H.: On the thermodynamic preconditioning of Arctic air masses and the role of tropopause polar vortices for cold air outbreaks from Fram Strait, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 11033–11050, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030570, 2019. a
Papritz, L., Aemisegger, F., and Wernli, H.: Sources and transport pathways of precipitating waters in cold-season deep North Atlantic cyclones, J. Atmos. Sci., 78, 3349–3368, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-21-0105.1, 2021. a
Parker, D. J.: Secondary frontal waves in the North Atlantic region: A dynamical perspective of current ideas, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 124, 829–856, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712454709, 1998. a, b, c, d
Parsons, D. B., Beland, M., Burridge, D., Bougeault, P., Brunet, G., Caughey, J., Cavallo, S. M., Charron, M., Davies, H. C., Niang, A. D., Ducrocq, V., Gauthier, P., Hamill, T. M., Harr, P. A., Jones, S. C., Langland, R. H., Majumdar, S. J., Mills, B. N., Moncrieff, M., Nakazawa, T., Paccagnella, T., Rabier, F., Redelsperger, J.-L., Riedel, C., Saunders, R. W., Shapiro, M. A., Swinbank, R., Szunyogh, I., Thorncroft, C., Thorpe, A. J., Wang, X., Waliser, D., Wernli, H., and Toth, Z.: THORPEX research and the science of prediction, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 98, 807–830, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00025.1, 2017. a
Pavan, V., Hall, N., Valdes, P., and Blackburn, M.: The importance of moisture distribution for the growth and energetics of mid-latitude systems, Ann. Geophys., 17, 242–256, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00585-999-0242-y, 1999. a
Pelly, J. L. and Hoskins, B. J.: A new perspective on blocking, J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 743–755, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2003)060<0743:ANPOB>2.0.CO;2, 2003. a
Persson, P. O. G.: Simulations of the potential vorticity structure and budget of FRONTS 87 IOP8, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 121, 1041–1081, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712152506, 1995. a
Petterssen, S.: A general survey of factors influencing development at sea level, J. Meteorol., 12, 36–42, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1955)012<0036:AGSOFI>2.0.CO;2, 1955. a
Petterssen, S. and Smebye, S. J.: On the development of extratropical cyclones, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 97, 457–482, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49709741407, 1971. a, b, c
Pfahl, S. and Sprenger, M.: On the relationship between extratropical cyclone precipitation and intensity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 1752–1758, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068018, 2016. a
Pfahl, S., Madonna, E., Boettcher, M., Joos, H., and Wernli, H.: Warm conveyor belts in the ERA-Interim dataset (1979–2010). Part II: Moisture origin and relevance for precipitation, J. Climate, 27, 27–40, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00223.1, 2014. a
Pfahl, S., O'Gorman, P. A., and Singh, M. S.: Extratropical cyclones in idealized simulations of changed climates, J. Climate, 28, 9373–9392, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00816.1, 2015a. a, b
Pfahl, S., Schwierz, C., Croci-Maspoli, M., Grams, C. M., and Wernli, H.: Importance of latent heat release in ascending air streams for atmospheric blocking, Nat. Geosci., 8, 610–614, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2487, 2015b. a
Pickl, M., Quinting, J. F., and Grams, C. M.: Warm conveyor belts as amplifiers of forecast uncertainty, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 149, 3064–3085, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4546, 2023. a
Pirret, J. S., Knippertz, P., and Trzeciak, T. M.: Drivers for the deepening of severe European windstorms and their impacts on forecast quality, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 143, 309–320, https://doi.org/10.1002/QJ.2923, 2017. a, b
Plant, R. S., Craig, G. C., and Gray, S. L.: On a threefold classification of extratropical cyclogenesis, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 129, 2989–3012, https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.02.174, 2003. a, b, c
Pomroy, H. R. and Thorpe, A. J.: The evolution and dynamical role of reduced upper-tropospheric potential vorticity in intensive observing period one of FASTEX, Mon. Weather Rev., 128, 1817–1834, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<1817:TEADRO>2.0.CO;2, 2000. a, b, c
Portmann, R., Crezee, B., Quinting, J., and Wernli, H.: The complex life cycles of two long-lived potential vorticity cut-offs over Europe, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 144, 701–719, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3239, 2018. a
Portmann, R., Sprenger, M., and Wernli, H.: The three-dimensional life cycles of potential vorticity cutoffs: A global and selected regional climatologies in ERA-Interim (1979–2018), Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 507–534, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-507-2021, 2021. a
Price, J. D. and Vaughan, G.: The potential for stratosphere-troposphere exchange in cut-off-low systems, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 119, 343–365, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49711951007, 1993. a, b
Priestley, M. D. K. and Catto, J. L.: Future changes in the extratropical storm tracks and cyclone intensity, wind speed, and structure, Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 337–360, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-337-2022, 2022. a, b
Priestley, M. D. K., Ackerley, D., Catto, J. L., Hodges, K. I., McDonald, R. E., and Lee, R. W.: An overview of the extratropical storm tracks in CMIP6 historical simulations, J. Climate, 33, 6315–6343, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0928.1, 2020. a
Protat, A., Lemaitre, Y., and Scialom, G.: Retrieval of kinematic fields using a single-beam airborne Doppler Radar performing circular trajectories, J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech., 14, 769–791, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0426(1997)014<0769:ROKFUA>2.0.CO;2, 1997. a
Pytharoulis, I., Craig, G., and Ballard, S.: The hurricane-like Mediterranean cyclone of January 1995, Meteorl. Appl., 7, S1350482700001511, https://doi.org/10.1017/S1350482700001511, 2000. a
Quitián-Hernández, L., González-Alemán, J. J., Santos-Muñoz, D., Fernández-González, S., Valero, F., and Martín, M. L.: Subtropical cyclone formation via warm seclusion development: The importance of surface fluxes, J. Geophys. Res.–Atmos., 125, e2019JD031526, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD031526, 2020. a
Ralph, F. M., Neiman, P. J., and Wick, G. A.: Satellite and CALJET aircraft observations of atmospheric rivers over the eastern North Pacific ocean during the winter of 1997/98, Mon. Weather Rev., 132, 1721–1745, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<1721:SACAOO>2.0.CO;2, 2004. a
Ralph, F. M., Dettinger, M. D., Cairns, M. M., Galarneau, T. J., and Eylander, J.: Defining “atmospheric river”: How the glossary of meteorology helped resolve a debate, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 99, 837–839, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0157.1, 2018. a
Rasmussen, E.: The polar low as an extratropical CISK disturbance, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 105, 531–549, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49710544504, 1979. a
Rasmussen, E. A. and Turner, J. (Eds.): Polar lows, Cambridge University Press, ISBN 9780521624305, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511524974, 2003. a
Rasp, S., Selz, T., and Craig, G. C.: Convective and slantwise trajectory ascent in convection-permitting simulations of midlatitude cyclones, Mon. Weather Rev., 144, 3961–3976, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0112.1, 2016. a
Raveh-Rubin, S. and Wernli, H.: Large-scale wind and precipitation extremes in the Mediterranean: Dynamical aspects of five selected cyclone events, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 142, 3097–3114, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2891, 2016. a
Reboita, M. S., Gozzo, L. F., Crespo, N. M., de Souza Custodio, M., Lucyrio, V., de Jesus, E. M., and da Rocha, R. P.: From a Shapiro–Keyser extratropical cyclone to the subtropical cyclone Raoni: An unusual winter synoptic situation over the South Atlantic Ocean, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 148, 2991–3009, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4349, 2022. a, b
Reed, R., Simmons, A. J., Albright, M. D., and Unden, P.: The role of latent heat release in explosive cyclogenesis: Three examples based on ECMWF operational forecasts, Weather Forecast., 3, 217–229, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1988)003<0217:TROLHR>2.0.CO;2, 1988. a, b
Reed, R. J.: Polar lows, in: vol. I, Seminar on the nature and prediction of extra-tropical weather systems, 7–11 September 1987, ECMWF, 213–236, https://www.ecmwf.int/en/elibrary/76129-polar-lows (last access: 1 July 2024), 1987. a
Reed, R. J. and Albright, M. D.: A case study of explosive cyclogenesis in the eastern Pacific, Mon. Weather Rev., 114, 2297–2319, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1986)114<2297:ACSOEC>2.0.CO;2, 1986. a, b
Reed, R. J. and Duncan, C. N.: Baroclinic instability as a mechanism for the serial development of polar lows: A case study, Tellus A, 39, 376–384, https://doi.org/10.3402/TELLUSA.V39I4.11766, 1987. a
Reed, R. J., Stoelinga, M. T., and Kuo, Y.-H.: A model-aided study of the origin and evolution of the anomalously high potential vorticity in the inner region of a rapidly deepening marine cyclone, Mon. Weather Rev., 120, 893–913, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1992)120<0893:AMASOT>2.0.CO;2, 1992. a, b, c, d, e, f, g
Reed, R. J., Grell, G. A., and Kuo, Y.-H.: The ERICA IOP 5 storm. Part I: Analysis and simulation, Mon. Weather Rev., 121, 1577–1594, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1993)121<1577:TEISPI>2.0.CO;2, 1993b. a, b, c
Reiter, E. R. and Mahlman, J. D.: Heavy radioactive fallout over the southern United States, November 1962, J. Geophys. Res., 70, 4501–4520, https://doi.org/10.1029/JZ070i018p04501, 1965. a
Renfrew, I. A., Thorpe, A. J., and Bishop, C. H.: The role of the environmental flow in the development of secondary frontal cyclones, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 123, 1653–1675, https://doi.org/10.1002/QJ.49712354210, 1997. a, b
Reuter, G. W. and Yau, M. K.: Assessment of slantwise convection in ERICA cyclones, Mon. Weather Rev., 121, 375–386, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1993)121<0375:AOSCIE>2.0.CO;2, 1993. a
Reye, T.: Über vertikale Luftströme in der Atmosphäre, Zeitschrift für Mathematik und Physik, 9, 250–276, 1864. a
Reye, T.: Die Ausdehnung der atmosphärischen Luft bei der Wolkenbildung, Annalen der Physik, 201, 618–626, 1865. a
Riboldi, J., Grams, C. M., Riemer, M., and Archambault, H. M.: A phase locking perspective on Rossby wave amplification and atmospheric blocking downstream of recurving western North Pacific tropical cyclones, Mon. Weather Rev., 147, 567–589, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-18-0271.1, 2019. a
Ricchi, A., Miglietta, M. M., Barbariol, F., Benetazzo, A., Bergamasco, A., Bonaldo, D., Cassardo, C., Falcieri, F. M., Modugno, G., Russo, A., Sclavo, M., and Carniel, S.: Sensitivity of a Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone to different model configurations and coupling strategies, Atmosphere, 8, 92, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos8050092, 2017. a
Riemer, M. and Jones, S. C.: The downstream impact of tropical cyclones on a developing baroclinic wave in idealized scenarios of extratropical transition, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 136, 617–637, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.605, 2010. a
Riemer, M., Jones, S. C., and Davis, C. A.: The impact of extratropical transition on the downstream flow: An idealized modelling study with a straight jet, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 134, 69–91, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.189, 2008. a
Rivals, H., Cammas, J.-P., and Renfrew, I. A.: Secondary cyclogenesis: The initiation phase of a frontal wave observed over the eastern Atlantic, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 124, 243–267, https://doi.org/10.1002/QJ.49712454511, 1998. a
Rivière, G., Arbogast, P., Maynard, K., and Joly, A.: The essential ingredients leading to the explosive growth stage of the European wind storm Lothar of Christmas 1999, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 136, 638–652, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.585, 2010. a, b
Rivière, G., Wimmer, M., Arbogast, P., Piriou, J.-M., Delanoë, J., Labadie, C., Cazenave, Q., and Pelon, J.: The impact of deep convection representation in a global atmospheric model on the warm conveyor belt and jet stream during NAWDEX IOP6, Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1011–1031, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1011-2021, 2021. a
Rivière, G., Ricard, D., and Arbogast, P.: The downward transport of momentum to the surface in idealized sting-jet cyclones, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 146, 1801–1821, https://doi.org/10.1002/QJ.3767, 2020. a
Robertson, F. R. and Smith, P. J.: The impact of model moist processes on the energetics of extratropical cyclones, Mon. Weather Rev., 111, 723–744, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1983)111<0723:TIOMMP>2.0.CO;2, 1983. a, b
Rodwell, M., Forbes, R., and Wernli, H.: Why warm conveyor belts matter in NWP, ECMWF Newsletter, 21–28, https://doi.org/10.21957/mr20vg, 2018. a
Rodwell, M. J. and Wernli, H.: Uncertainty growth and forecast reliability during extratropical cyclogenesis, Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 591–615, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-591-2023, 2023. a
Rodwell, M. J., Magnusson, L., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Bonavita, M., Cardinali, C., Diamantakis, M., Earnshaw, P., Garcia-Mendez, A., Isaksen, L., Källén, E., Klocke, D., Lopez, P., McNally, T., Persson, A., Prates, F., and Wedi, N.: Characteristics of occasional poor medium-range weather forecasts for Europe, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 94, 1393–1405, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00099.1, 2013. a, b, c, d
Roebber, P. J.: Statistical analysis and updated climatology of explosive cyclones, Mon. Weather Rev., 112, 1577–1589, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1984)112<1577:SAAUCO>2.0.CO;2, 1984. a
Roebber, P. J.: The role of surface heat and moisture fluxes associated with large-scale ocean current meanders in maritime cyclogenesis, Mon. Weather Rev., 117, 1676–1694, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1989)117<1676:TROSHA>2.0.CO;2, 1989. a
Roebber, P. J. and Schumann, M. R.: Physical processes governing the rapid deepening tail of maritime cyclogenesis, Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 2776–2789, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-10-05002.1, 2011. a, b, c
Rogers, E. and Bosart, L. F.: An investigation of explosively deepening oceanic cyclones, Mon. Weather Rev., 114, 702–718, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1986)114<0702:AIOEDO>2.0.CO;2, 1986. a, b
Rogers, E. and Bosart, L. F.: A diagnostic study of two intense oceanic cyclones, Mon. Weather Rev., 119, 965–996, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1991)119<0965:ADSOTI>2.0.CO;2, 1991. a
Romero, R.: A method for quantifying the impacts and interactions of potential-vorticity anomalies in extratropical cyclones, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 134, 385–402, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.219, 2008. a
Romero, R., Doswell, C. A., and Ramis, C.: Mesoscale numerical study of two cases of long-lived quasi-stationary convective systems over eastern Spain, Mon. Weather Rev., 128, 3731–3751, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<3731:MNSOTC>2.0.CO;2, 2000. a
Rossby, C.-G.: On the propagation of frequencies and energy in certain types of oceanic and atmospheric waves, J. Meteorol., 2, 187–204, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1945)002<0187:OTPOFA>2.0.CO;2, 1945. a
Rossby, C.-G. and collaborators: Isentropic analysis, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 18, 201–209, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477-18.6-7.201, 1937. a, b
Röthlisberger, M., Martius, O., and Wernli, H.: Northern hemisphere Rossby wave initiation events on the extratropical jet – a climatological analysis, J. Climate, 31, 743–760, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0346.1, 2018. a
Rudeva, I. and Gulev, S. K.: Composite analysis of North Atlantic extratropical cyclones in NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data, Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 1419–1446, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3294.1, 2011. a
Saffin, L., Methven, J., and Gray, S. L.: The non-conservation of potential vorticity by a dynamical core compared with the effects of parametrized physical processes, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 142, 1265–1275, https://doi.org/10.1002/QJ.2729, 2016. a
Saffin, L., Gray, S. L., Methven, J., and Williams, K. D.: Processes maintaining tropopause sharpness in numerical models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 122, 9611–9627, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD026879, 2017. a, b
Saffin, L., Methven, J., Bland, J., Harvey, B., and Sanchez, C.: Circulation conservation in the outflow of warm conveyor belts and consequences for Rossby wave evolution, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 147, 3587–3610, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4143, 2021. a, b
Saito, N.: On the structure of medium-scale depressions over the east China Sea during AMTEX '79, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 55, 286–300, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj1965.55.3_286, 1977. a, b, c, d
Sánchez, C., Methven, J., Gray, S., and Cullen, M.: Linking rapid forecast error growth to diabatic processes, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 146, 3548–3569, https://doi.org/10.1002/QJ.3861, 2020. a, b, c
Sanders, F. and Gyakum, J. R.: Synoptic-dynamic climatology of the “bomb”, Mon. Weather Rev., 108, 1589–1606, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1980)108<1589:SDCOT>2.0.CO;2, 1980. a, b
Schäfler, A. and Harnisch, F.: Impact of the inflow moisture on the evolution of a warm conveyor belt, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 141, 299–310, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2360, 2015. a
Schäfler, A., Boettcher, M., Grams, C. M., Rautenhaus, M., Sodemann, H., and Wernli, H.: Planning aircraft measurements within a warm conveyor belt, Weather, 69, 161–166, https://doi.org/10.1002/WEA.2245, 2014. a
Schäfler, A., Craig, G., Wernli, H., Arbogast, P., Doyle, J. D., Mctaggart-Cowan, R., Methven, J., Rivière, G., Ament, F., Boettcher, M., Bramberger, M., Cazenave, Q., Cotton, R., Crewell, S., Delanoë, J., Dörnbrack, A., Ehrlich, A., Ewald, F., Fix, A., Grams, C. M., Gray, S. L., Grob, H., Groß, S., Hagen, M., Harvey, B., Hirsch, L., JAcob, M., Kölling, T., Konow, H., Lemmerz, C., Lux, O., Magnusson, L., Mayer, B., Mech, M., Moore, R., Pelon, J., Quinting, J., Rahm, S., Rapp, M., Rautenhaus, M., Reitebuch, O., Reynolds, C. A., Sodemann, H., Spengler, T., Vaughan, G., Wendisch, M., Wirth, M., Witschas, B., Wolf, K., and Zinner, T.: The North Atlantic waveguide and downstream impact experiment, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 99, 1607–1637, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0003.1, 2018. a, b, c, d
Schär, C.: A generalization of Bernoulli's theorem, J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 1437–1443, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1993)050<1437:AGOBT>2.0.CO;2, 1993. a
Schär, C. and Wernli, H.: Structure and evolution of an isolated semi-geostrophic cyclone, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 119, 57–90, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49711950904, 1993. a, b
Schär, C., Frei, C., Lüthi, D., and Davies, H. C.: Surrogate climate-change scenarios for regional climate models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 23, 669–672, https://doi.org/10.1029/96GL00265, 1996. a
Schär, C., Fuhrer, O., Arteaga, A., Ban, N., Charpilloz, C., Girolamo, S. D., Hentgen, L., Hoefler, T., Lapillonne, X., Leutwyler, D., Osterried, K., Panosetti, D., Rüdisühli, S., Schlemmer, L., Schulthess, T. C., Sprenger, M., Ubbiali, S., and Wernli, H.: Kilometer-scale climate models: Prospects and challenges, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 101, E567–E587, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0167.1, 2020. a, b
Schemm, S.: Toward eliminating the decades‐old “too zonal and too equatorward” storm‐track bias in climate models, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 15, e2022MS003482, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022MS003482, 2023. a
Schemm, S., Wernli, H., and Papritz, L.: Warm conveyor belts in idealized moist baroclinic wave simulations, J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 627–652, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-12-0147.1, 2013. a
Scherrmann, A., Wernli, H., and Flaounas, E.: Origin of low-tropospheric potential vorticity in Mediterranean cyclones, Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 157–173, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-157-2023, 2023. a
Schneider, T., O'Gorman, P. A., and Levine, X. J.: Water vapour and the dynamics of climate change, Rev. Geophys., 48, 1–22, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009RG000302, 2010. a, b
Schneider, T., Teixeira, J., Bretherton, C. S., Brient, F., Pressel, K. G., Schär, C., and Siebesma, A. P.: Climate goals and computing the future of clouds, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 3–5, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3190, 2017. a
Schubert, S. D., Rood, R. B., and Pfaendtner, J.: An assimilated dataset for Earth science applications, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 74, 2331–2342, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1993)074<2331:AADFES>2.0.CO;2, 1993. a
Schulthess, T. C., Bauer, P., Wedi, N., Fuhrer, O., Hoefler, T., and Schar, C.: Reflecting on the goal and baseline for exascale computing: A roadmap based on weather and climate simulations, Comput. Sci. Eng., 21, 30–41, https://doi.org/10.1109/MCSE.2018.2888788, 2019. a
Schultz, D. M. and Browning, K. A.: What is a sting jet?, Weather, 72, 63–66, https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.2795, 2017. a
Schultz, D. M., Schumacher, P. N., and III, C. A. D.: The intricacies of instabilities, Mon. Weather Rev., 128, 4143–4148, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2000)129<4143:TIOI>2.0.CO;2, 2000. a
Schultz, D. M., Bosart, L. F., Colle, B. A., Davies, H. C., Dearden, C., Keyser, D., Martius, O., Roebber, P. J., Steenburgh, W. J., Volkert, H., and Winters, A. C.: Extratropical cyclones: A century of research on meteorology’s centerpiece, Meteorol. Monogr., 59, 16.1–16.56, https://doi.org/10.1175/AMSMONOGRAPHS-D-18-0015.1, 2019. a, b
Schwierz, C., Dirren, S., and Davies, H. C.: Forced waves on a zonally aligned jet stream, J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 73–87, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2004)061<0073:FWOAZA>2.0.CO;2, 2004. a
Seiler, C.: A climatological assessment of intense extratropical cyclones from the potential vorticity perspective, J. Climate, 32, 2369–2380, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0461.1, 2019. a
Selz, T. and Craig, G. C.: Upscale error growth in a high-resolution simulation of a summertime weather event over Europe, Mon. Weather Rev., 143, 813–827, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-14-00140.1, 2015. a
Selz, T., Riemer, M., and Craig, G. C.: The transition from practical to intrinsic predictability of midlatitude weather, J. Atmos. Sci., 79, 2013–2030, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-21-0271.1, 2022. a
Shapiro, M. A.: The role of turbulent heat flux in the generation of potential vorticity in the vicinity of upper-level jet stream systems, Mon. Weather Rev., 104, 892–906, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1976)104<0892:TROTHF>2.0.CO;2, 1976. a
Shapiro, M. A. and Keyser, D.: Fronts, jet streams and the tropopause, in: Extratropical cyclones: The Erik Palmén memorial volume, edited by: Newton, C. W. and Holopainen, E. O., American Meteorological Society, 167–191, ISBN 10:999112571X, ISBN 13:978-9991125718, 1990. a
Shaw, T. A., Baldwin, M., Barnes, E. A., Caballero, R., Garfinkel, C. I., Hwang, Y.-T., Li, C., O'Gorman, P. A., Rivière, G., Simpson, I. R., and Voigt, A.: Storm track processes and the opposing influences of climate change, Nat. Geosci., 9, 656–664, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2783, 2016. a, b
Shaw, W. N.: The meteorological aspects of the storm of February 26–27, 1903, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 29, 233–262, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49702912801, 1903. a
Sheldon, L., Czaja, A., Vanniere, B., Morcrette, C., Sohet, B., Casado, M., and Smith, D.: A `warm path' for Gulf Stream–troposphere interactions, Tellus A, 69, 1299397, https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2017.1299397, 2017. a, b
Shepherd, T. G., Boyd, E., Calel, R. A., Chapman, S. C., Dessai, S., Dima-West, I. M., Fowler, H. J., James, R., Maraun, D., Martius, O., Senior, C. A., Sobel, A. H., Stainforth, D. A., Tett, S. F., Trenberth, K. E., van den Hurk, B. J., Watkins, N. W., Wilby, R. L., and Zenghelis, D. A.: Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change, Climatic Change, 151, 555–571, https://doi.org/10.1007/S10584-018-2317-9, 2018. a
Sherwood, S. C.: On moist instability, Mon. Weather Rev., 128, 4139–4142, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2000)129<4139:OMI>2.0.CO;2, 2000. a
Shibuya, R., Takayabu, Y., and Kamahori, H.: Dynamics of widespread extreme precipitation events and the associated large-scale environment using AMeDAS and JRA-55 data, J. Climate, 34, 8955–8970, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0064.1, 2021. a
Shutts, G. J.: SCAPE charts from numerical weather prediction model fields, Mon. Weather Rev., 118, 2745–2751, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1990)118<2745:SCFNWP>2.0.CO;2, 1990a. a, b, c
Shutts, G. J.: Dynamical aspects of the October storm, 1987: A study of a successful fine-mesh simulation, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 116, 1315–1347, https://doi.org/10.1002/QJ.49711649604, 1990b. a, b, c, d
Simmer, C., Adrian, G., Jones, S., Wirth, V., Göber, M., Hohenegger, C., Janjić, T., Keller, J., Ohlwein, C., Seifert, A., Trömel, S., Ulbrich, T., Wapler, K., Weissmann, M., Keller, J., Masbou, M., Meilinger, S., Riß, N., Schomburg, A., Vormann, A., and Weingärtner, C.: HErZ: The German Hans-Ertel centre for weather research, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 97, 1057–1068, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00227.1, 2016. a
Simmonds, I. and Keay, K.: Variability of Southern Hemisphere extratropical cyclone behavior, 1958–97, J. Climate, 13, 550–561, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<0550:VOSHEC>2.0.CO;2, 2000. a, b
Simmonds, I., Keay, K., and Bye, J. A. T.: Identification and climatology of Southern Hemisphere mobile fronts in a modern reanalysis, J. Climate, 25, 1945–1962, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00100.1, 2012. a
Simmons, A. J. and Hoskins, B. J.: The life cycles of some nonlinear baroclinic waves, J. Atmos. Sci., 35, 414–432, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1978)035<0414:TLCOSN>2.0.CO;2, 1978. a
Sinclair, M. R.: A climatology of cyclogenesis for the Southern Hemisphere, Mon. Weather Rev., 123, 1601–1619, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1995)123<1601:ACOCFT>2.0.CO;2, 1995. a
Sinclair, M. R. and Cong, X.: Polar airstream cyclogenesis in the Australasian region: A composite study using ECMWF analyses, Mon. Weather Rev., 120, 1950–1972, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1992)120<1950:PACITA>2.0.CO;2, 1992. a
Sinclair, M. R. and Elsberry, R. L.: A diagnostic study of baroclinic disturbances in polar air streams, Mon. Weather Rev., 114, 1957–1983, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1986)114<1957:ADSOBD>2.0.CO;2, 1986. a
Sinclair, V. A. and Catto, J. L.: The relationship between extra-tropical cyclone intensity and precipitation in idealised current and future climates, Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 567–589, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-567-2023, 2023. a
Sinclair, V. A., Rantanen, M., Haapanala, P., Räisänen, J., and Järvinen, H.: The characteristics and structure of extra-tropical cyclones in a warmer climate, Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 1–25, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-1-2020, 2020. a
Smith, R. B.: Current status of ALPEX research in the United States, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 67, 310–318, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477-67.3.310, 1986. a
Smith, R. B. and Smith, D. F.: Pseudoinviscid wake formation by mountains in shallow-water flow with a drifting vortex, J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 436–454, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1995)052<0436:PWFBMI>2.0.CO;2, 1995. a, b
Snyder, C. and Lindzen, R. S.: Quasi-geostrophic wave-CISK in an unbounded baroclinic shear, J. Atmos. Sci., 48, 76–86, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1991)048<0076:QGWCIA>2.0.CO;2, 1991. a, b, c
Sodemann, H., Wernli, H., Knippertz, P., Cordeira, J. M., Dominguez, F., Guan, B., Hu, H., Ralph, F. M., and Stohl, A.: Structure, process, and mechanism, in: Atmospheric rivers, edited by: Ralph, F. M., Dettinger, M. D., Rutz, J. J., and Waliser, D. E., Springer International Publishing, 15–43, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-28906-5_2, 2020. a
Spengler, T. and Egger, J.: Comments on “dry-season precipitation in tropical West Africa and its relation to forcing from the extratropics”, Mon. Weather Rev., 137, 3149–3150, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009MWR2942.1, 2009. a
Spengler, T., Egger, J., and Garner, S. T.: How does rain affect surface pressure in a one-dimensional framework?, J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 347–360, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JAS3582.1, 2011. a
Spreitzer, E., Attinger, R., Boettcher, M., Forbes, R., Wernli, H., and Joos, H.: Modification of potential vorticity near the tropopause by nonconservative processes in the ECMWF model, J. Atmos. Sci., 76, 1709–1726, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-18-0295.1, 2019. a
Staley, D. O.: Evaluation of potential-vorticity changes near the tropopause and the related vertitcal motions, vertical advection of vorticity, and transfer of radioactive debris from stratosphere to troposphere, J. Meteorol., 17, 591–620, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1960)017<0591:EOPVCN>2.0.CO;2, 1960. a, b, c
Stein, U. and Alpert, P.: Factor separation in numerical simulations, J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 2107–2115, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1993)050<2107:FSINS>2.0.CO;2, 1993. a
Steinfeld, D. and Pfahl, S.: The role of latent heating in atmospheric blocking dynamics: A global climatology, Clim. Dynam., 53, 6159–6180, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04919-6, 2019. a
Steinfeld, D., Boettcher, M., Forbes, R., and Pfahl, S.: The sensitivity of atmospheric blocking to upstream latent heating – numerical experiments, Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 405–426, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-405-2020, 2020. a
Steinfeld, D., Sprenger, M., Beyerle, U., and Pfahl, S.: Response of moist and dry processes in atmospheric blocking to climate change, Environ. Res. Lett., 17, 084020, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac81af, 2022. a
Stewart, R. E.: Canadian Atlantic storms program: Progress and plans of the meteorological component, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 72, 364–371, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1991)072<0364:CASPPA>2.0.CO;2, 1991. a
Stewart, R. E., Isaac, G. A., and Shaw, R. W.: Canadian Atlantic storms program: The meteorological field project, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 68, 338–345, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1987)068<0338:CASPTM>2.0.CO;2, 1987. a
Stewart, R. E., Szeto, K. K., Reinking, R. F., Clough, S. A., and Ballard, S. P.: Midlatitude cyclonic cloud systems and their features affecting large scales and climate, Rev. Geophys., 36, 245–273, https://doi.org/10.1029/97RG03573, 1998. a
Stohl, A., Haimberger, L., Scheele, R., and Wernli, H.: An intercomparison of three trajectory models, Meteorol. Appl., 8, 127–135, https://doi.org/10.1017/S1350482701002018, 2001. a
Stoll, P. J., Graversen, R. G., Noer, G., and Hodges, K.: An objective global climatology of polar lows based on reanalysis data, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 144, 2099–2117, https://doi.org/10.1002/QJ.3309, 2018. a, b
Stoll, P. J., Spengler, T., Terpstra, A., and Graversen, R. G.: Polar lows – moist-baroclinic cyclones developing in four different vertical wind shear environments, Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 19–36, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-19-2021, 2021. a
Swinbank, R., Kyouda, M., Buchanan, P., Froude, L., Hamill, T. M., Hewson, T. D., Keller, J. H., Matsueda, M., Methven, J., Pappenberger, F., Scheuerer, M., Titley, H. A., Wilson, L., and Yamaguchi, M.: The TIGGE project and its achievements, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 97, 49–67, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00191.1, 2016. a
Szépszó, G., Sinclair, V., and Carver, G.: Using the ECMWF OpenIFS model and state-of-the-art training techniques in meteorological education, Adv. Sci. Res., 16, 39–47, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-39-2019, 2019. a
Tafferner, A.: Lee cyclogenesis resulting from the combined outbreak of cold air and potential vorticity against the Alps, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 43, 31–47, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01028107, 1990. a
Takayabu, I.: “Coupling development”: An efficient mechanism for the development of extratropical cyclones, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn. Ser. II, 69, 609–628, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj1965.69.6_609, 1991. a
Tamarin-Brodsky, T. and Kaspi, Y.: Enhanced poleward propagation of storms under climate change, Nat. Geosci., 10, 908–913, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-017-0001-8, 2017. a, b
Terpstra, A., Spengler, T., and Moore, R. W.: Idealised simulations of polar low development in an Arctic moist-baroclinic environment, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 141, 1987–1996, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2507, 2015. a
Teubler, F. and Riemer, M.: Dynamics of Rossby wave packets in a quantitative potential vorticity-potential temperature framework, J. Atmos. Sci., 73, 1063–1081, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0162.1, 2016. a
Thompson, W. T.: Numerical simulations of the life cycle of a baroclinic wave, Tellus A, 47, 722–732, https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1995.00115.x, 1995. a
Thorpe, A. J.: An appreciation of the meteorological research of Ernst Kleinschmidt, Meteorol. Z., 2, 3–12, https://doi.org/10.1127/metz/2/1993/3, 1993. a, b
Thorpe, A. J. and Bishop, C. H.: Potential vorticity and the electrostatics analogy: Ertel–Rossby formulation, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 121, 1477–1495, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712152612, 1995. a
Thorpe, A. J. and Clough, S. A.: Mesoscale dynamics of cold fronts: Structures described by dropsoundings in FRONTS 87, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 117, 903–941, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49711750103, 1991. a, b, c, d
Thorpe, A. J. and Emanuel, K. A.: Frontogenesis in the presence of small stability to slantwise convection, J. Atmos. Sci., 42, 1809–1824, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1985)042<1809:FITPOS>2.0.CO;2, 1985. a, b, c, d
Tierney, G., Posselt, D. J., and Booth, J. F.: An examination of extratropical cyclone response to changes in baroclinicity and temperature in an idealized environment, Clim. Dynam., 51, 3829–3846, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4115-5, 2018. a
Tochimoto, E. and Kawano, T.: Numerical investigation of development processes of Baiu frontal depressions. Part I: Case studies, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn. Ser. II, 95, 91–109, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2017-005, 2017. a
Tokioka, T.: A stability study of medium-scale disturbances with inclusion of convective effects, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn. Ser. II, 51, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj1965.51.1_1, 1973. a
Tomassini, L., Parker, D. J., Stirling, A., Bain, C., Senior, C., and Milton, S.: The interaction between moist diabatic processes and the atmospheric circulation in African easterly wave propagation, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 143, 3207–3227, https://doi.org/10.1002/QJ.3173, 2017. a
Torn, R. D.: Diagnosis of the downstream ridging associated with extratropical transition using short-term ensemble forecasts, J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 817–833, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JAS3093.1, 2010. a, b
Torn, R. D.: A comparison of the downstream predictability associated with ET and baroclinic cyclones, Mon. Weather Rev., 145, 4651–4672, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-17-0083.1, 2017. a
Tracton, M. S.: The role of cumulus convection in the development of extratropical cyclones, Mon. Weather Rev., 101, 573–593, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1973)101<0573:TROCCI>2.3.CO;2, 1973. a
Tsopouridis, L., Spensberger, C., and Spengler, T.: Characteristics of cyclones following different pathways in the Gulf Stream region, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 147, 392–407, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3924, 2021. a
Uccellini, L. W.: The possible influence of upstream upper-level baroclinic processes on the development of the QE II storm, Mon. Weather Rev., 114, 1019–1027, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1986)114<1019:TPIOUU>2.0.CO;2, 1986. a
Uccellini, L. W.: Processes contributing to the rapid development of extratropical cyclones, in: Extratropical cyclones: The Erik Palmén memorial volume, edited by: Newton, C. W. and Holopainen, E. O., American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA, 81–105, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-944970-33-8_6, 1990. a, b
Uccellini, L. W., Keyser, D., Brill, K. F., and Wash, C. H.: The Presidents' Day cyclone of 18–19 February 1979: Influence of upstream trough amplification and associated tropopause folding on rapid cyclogenesis, Mon. Weather Rev., 113, 962–988, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1985)113<0962:TPDCOF>2.0.CO;2, 1985. a
Uccellini, L. W., Petersen, R. A., Kocin, P. J., Brill, K. F., and Tuccillo, J. J.: Synergistic interactions between an upper-level jet streak and diabatic processes that influence the development of a low-level jet and a secondary coastal cyclone, Mon. Weather Rev., 115, 2227–2261, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<2227:SIBAUL>2.0.CO;2, 1987. a
Uppala, S. M., Kållberg, P. W., Simmons, A. J., Andrae, U., Bechtold, V. D. C., Fiorino, M., Gibson, J. K., Haseler, J., Hernandez, A., Kelly, G. A., Li, X., Onogi, K., Saarinen, S., Sokka, N., Allan, R. P., Andersson, E., Arpe, K., Balmaseda, M. A., Beljaars, A. C. M., Berg, L. V. D., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Caires, S., Chevallier, F., Dethof, A., Dragosavac, M., Fisher, M., Fuentes, M., Hagemann, S., Hólm, E., Hoskins, B. J., Isaksen, L., Janssen, P. A. E. M., Jenne, R., Mcnally, A. P., Mahfouf, J.-F., Morcrette, J.-J., Rayner, N. A., Saunders, R. W., Simon, P., Sterl, A., Trenberth, K. E., Untch, A., Vasiljevic, D., Viterbo, P., and Woollen, J.: The ERA-40 re-analysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 131, 2961–3012, https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.04.176, 2005. a
Valdes, P. J. and Hoskins, B. J.: Baroclinic instability of the zonally averaged flow with boundary layer damping, J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 1584–1593, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1988)045<1584:BIOTZA>2.0.CO;2, 1988. a
Vannière, B., Czaja, A., Dacre, H., Woollings, T., and Parfitt, R.: A potential vorticity signature for the cold sector of winter extratropical cyclones, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 142, 432–442, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2662, 2016. a
Vaughan, G., Methven, J., Anderson, D., Antonescu, B., Baker, L., Baker, T. P., Ballard, S. P., Bower, K. N., Brown, P. R., Chagnon, J., Choularton, T. W., Chylik, J., Connolly, P. J., Cook, P. A., Cotton, R. J., Crosier, J., Dearden, C., Dorsey, J. R., Frame, T. H., Gallagher, M. W., Goodliff, M., Gray, S. L., Harvey, B. J., Knippertz, P., Lean, H. W., Li, D., Lloyd, G., Martínez-Alvarado, O., Nicol, J., Norris, J., Öström, E., Owen, J., Parker, D. J., Plant, R. S., Renfrew, I. A., Roberts, N. M., Rosenberg, P., Rudd, A. C., Schultz, D. M., Taylor, J. P., Trzeciak, T., Tubbs, R., Vance, A. K., Leeuwen, P. J. V., Wellpott, A., and Woolley, A.: Cloud banding and winds in intense European cyclones: Results from the DIAMET project, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 96, 249–265, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00238.1, 2015. a, b, c, d
Voigt, A., Keshtgar, B., and Butz, K.: Tug-of-war on idealized midlatitude cyclones between radiative heating from low-level and high-level clouds, Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2023GL103188, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103188, 2023. a, b
Volkert, H.: Components of the Norwegian cyclone model: Observations and theoretical ideas in Europe prior to 1920, in: The life cycles of extratropical cyclones, edited by: Shapiro, M. A. and Grønås, S., American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA, 15–28, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-935704-09-6_3, 1999. a
Volonté, A., Clark, P. A., and Gray, S. L.: The role of mesoscale instabilities in the sting-jet dynamics of windstorm Tini, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 144, 877–899, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3264, 2018. a
Volonté, A., Clark, P. A., and Gray, S. L.: Idealised simulations of cyclones with robust symmetrically unstable sting jets, Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 63–91, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-63-2020, 2020. a
Wakimoto, R. M., Blier, W., and Liu, C.: The frontal structure of an explosive oceanic cyclone: Airbone radar observations of ERICA IOP 4, Mon. Weather Rev., 120, 1135–1155, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1992)120<1135:TFSOAE>2.0.CO;2, 1992. a, b
Wandel, J., Büeler, D., Knippertz, P., Quinting, J. F., and Grams, C. M.: Why moist dynamic processes matter for the sub-seasonal prediction of atmospheric blocking over Europe, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 129, e2023JD039791, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD039791, 2024. a
Wang, B. and Barcilon, A.: Moist stability of a baroclinic zonal flow with conditionally unstable stratification, J. Atmos. Sci., 43, 705–719, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1986)043<0705:MSOABZ>2.0.CO;2, 1986. a
Wang, C., Wu, R., and Wang, Y.: Interaction of diabatic frontogenesis and moisture processes in cold-frontal rain-band, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 19, 544–561, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-002-0085-x, 2002. a
Watterson, I. G.: The intensity of precipitation during extratropical cyclones in global warming simulations: A link to cyclone intensity?, Tellus A, 58, 82–97, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2006.00147.x, 2006. a, b
Weber, T. and Névir, P.: Storm tracks and cyclone development using the theoretical concept of the Dynamic State Index (DSI), Tellus A, 60, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2007.00272.x, 2008. a, b
Weijenborg, C. and Spengler, T.: Diabatic heating as a pathway for cyclone clustering encompassing the extreme storm Dagmar, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL085777, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085777, 2020. a
Weijenborg, C., Friederichs, P., and Hense, A.: Organisation of potential vorticity on the mesoscale during deep moist convection, Tellus A, 67, 25705, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v67.25705, 2015. a, b
Weijenborg, C., Chagnon, J. M., Friederichs, P., Gray, S. L., and Hense, A.: Coherent evolution of potential vorticity anomalies associated with deep moist convection, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 143, 1254–1267, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3000, 2017. a, b
Wernli, H. and Sprenger, M.: Identification and ERA-15 climatology of potential vorticity streamers and cutoffs near the extratropical tropopause, J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 1569–1586, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS3912.1, 2007. a
Wernli, H., Dirren, S., Liniger, M. A., and Zillig, M.: Dynamical aspects of the life cycle of the winter storm `Lothar' (24–26 December 1999), Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 128, 405–429, https://doi.org/10.1256/003590002321042036, 2002. a, b, c, d
West, J. B.: Joseph Black, carbon dioxide, latent heat, and the beginnings of the discovery of the respiratory gases, Am. J. Physiol.-Lung Cell. Molec. Physiol., 306, L1057–L1063, https://doi.org/10.1152/ajplung.00020.2014, 2014. a
Whitaker, J. S. and Davis, C. A.: Cyclogenesis in a saturated environment, J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 889–908, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1994)051<0889:CIASE>2.0.CO;2, 1994. a, b, c
Wild, M., Folini, D., Schär, C., Loeb, N., Dutton, E. G., and König-Langlo, G.: The global energy balance from a surface perspective, Clim. Dynam., 40, 3107–3134, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1569-8, 2013. a
Willison, J., Robinson, W. A., and Lackmann, G. M.: The importance of resolving mesoscale latent heating in the North Atlantic storm track, J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 2234–2250, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-12-0226.1, 2013. a
Willison, J., Robinson, W. A., and Lackmann, G. M.: North Atlantic storm-track sensitivity to warming increases with model resolution, J. Climate, 28, 4513–4524, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00715.1, 2015. a
Wimmer, M., Rivière, G., Arbogast, P., Piriou, J.-M., Delanoë, J., Labadie, C., Cazenave, Q., and Pelon, J.: Diabatic processes modulating the vertical structure of the jet stream above the cold front of an extratropical cyclone: Sensitivity to deep convection schemes, Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 863–882, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-863-2022, 2022. a
Winston, J. S.: Physical aspects of rapid cyclogenesis in the Gulf of Alaska, Tellus, 7, 481–500, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1955.tb01186.x, 1955. a
Wirth, V.: Diabatic heating in an axisymmetric cut-off cyclone and related stratosphere-troposphere exchange, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 121, 127–147, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712152107, 1995. a
Wirth, V. and Egger, J.: Diagnosing extratropical synoptic-scale stratosphere-troposphere exchange: A case study, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 125, 635–655, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712555413, 1999. a
Wirth, V., Riemer, M., Chang, E. K. M., and Martius, O.: Rossby wave packets on the midlatitude waveguide – a review, Mon. Weather Rev., 146, 1965–2001, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0483.1, 2018. a, b
Woollings, T., Barriopedro, D., Methven, J., Son, S.-W., Martius, O., Harvey, B., Sillmann, J., Lupo, A. R., and Seneviratne, S.: Blocking and its response to climate change, Current Climate Change Reports, 4, 287–300, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-018-0108-z, 2018. a, b
Wu, L., Martin, J. E., and Petty, G. W.: Piecewise potential vorticity diagnosis of the development of a polar low over the Sea of Japan, Tellus A, 63, 190–197, https://doi.org/10.1111/J.1600-0870.2010.00494.X, 2011. a
Yanase, W. and Niino, H.: Dependence of polar low development on baroclinicity and physical processes: An idealized high-resolution numerical experiment, J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 3044–3067, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS4001.1, 2007. a
Yau, M. K. and Jean, M.: Synoptic aspects and physical processes in the rapidly intensifying cyclone of 6–8 March 1986, Atmos.-Ocean, 27, 59–86, https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.1989.9649328, 1989. a
Yoshida, A. and Asuma, Y.: Structures and environment of explosively developing extratropical cyclones in the northwestern Pacific region, Mon. Weather Rev., 132, 1121–1142, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<1121:SAEOED>2.0.CO;2, 2004. a
Yoshiike, S. and Kawamura, R.: Influence of wintertime large-scale circulation on the explosively developing cyclones over the western North Pacific and their downstream effects, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 114, D13110, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD011820, 2009. a
Yoshizumi, S.: On the structure of intermediate-scale disturbances on the Baiu front, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn. Ser. II, 55, 107–120, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj1965.55.1_107, 1977. a, b
Young, M. V., Monk, G. A., and Browning, K. A.: Interpretation of satellite imagery of a rapidly deepening cyclone, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 113, 1089–1115, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49711347803, 1987. a, b
Zhang, D. and Ma, Z.: The generalized application of a new surface pressure tendency equation in synoptic weather systems, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 128, e2023JD038580, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD038580, 2023. a
Zhang, D.-L., Cheng, W. Y. Y., and Gyakum, J. R.: The impact of various potential-vorticity anomalies on multiple frontal cyclogenesis events, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 128, 1847–1877, https://doi.org/10.1256/003590002320603449, 2002. a, b
Zhang, F., Snyder, C., and Rotunno, R.: Effects of moist convection on mesoscale predictability, J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 1173–1185, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2003)060<1173:EOMCOM>2.0.CO;2, 2003. a
Zhang, Y. and Wang, W.-C.: Model-simulated northern winter cyclone and anticyclone activity under a greenhouse warming scenario, J. Climate, 10, 1616–1634, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<1616:MSNWCA>2.0.CO;2, 1997. a
Zhang, Z. and Ralph, F. M.: The influence of antecedent atmospheric river conditions on extratropical cyclogenesis, Mon. Weather Rev., 149, 1337–1357, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-20-0212.1, 2021. a, b
Zhao, Y., Park, C., and Son, S.-W.: Importance of diabatic heating for the eastward-moving heavy rainfall events along the Yangtze river, China, J. Atmos. Sci., 80, 151–165, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-21-0321.1, 2023. a
Zhu, Y. and Newell, R. E.: Atmospheric rivers and bombs, Geophys. Res. Lett., 21, 1999–2002, https://doi.org/10.1029/94GL01710, 1994. a
Zierl, B. and Wirth, V.: The influence of radiation on tropopause behavior and stratosphere-troposphere exchange in an upper tropospheric anticyclone, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 102, 23883–23894, https://doi.org/10.1029/97JD01667, 1997. a
Zscheischler, J., Martius, O., Westra, S., Bevacqua, E., Raymond, C., Horton, R. M., van den Hurk, B., AghaKouchak, A., Jézéquel, A., Mahecha, M. D., Maraun, D., Ramos, A. M., Ridder, N. N., Thiery, W., and Vignotto, E.: A typology of compound weather and climate events, Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 1, 333–347, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-0060-z, 2020. a
Zwack, P. and Okossi, B.: A new method for solving the quasi-geostrophic omega equation by incorporating surface pressure tendency data, Mon. Weather Rev., 114, 655–666, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1986)114<0655:ANMFST>2.0.CO;2, 1986. a
Download
- Article
(24343 KB) - Full-text XML
Short summary
The science of extratropical dynamics has reached a new level where the interplay of dry dynamics with effects of latent heating in clouds and other diabatic processes is considered central to the field. This review documents how research about the role of diabatic processes evolved over more than a century; it highlights that progress relied essentially on the integration of theory, field campaigns, novel diagnostics, and numerical modelling, and it outlines avenues for future research.
The science of extratropical dynamics has reached a new level where the interplay of dry...
