Articles | Volume 5, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1299-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1299-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review article
| 
24 Oct 2024
Review article |
| 24 Oct 2024
| 24 Oct 2024
The importance of diabatic processes for the dynamics of synoptic-scale extratropical weather systems – a review
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Suzanne L. Gray
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
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Ming Hon Franco Lee, Hanna Joos, Heini Wernli, Richard Forbes, and Michael Sprenger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4609, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4609, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
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Warm conveyor belts are coherent, rapidly ascending airstreams in extratropical cyclones, creating divergent outflows at upper levels. Using a numerical simulation, turbulence is found modifying potential vorticity near the tropopause in an outflow region. Despite the complex flow, changes in potential vorticity are retained due to the coordination provided by the outflow, leading to a potential upscale effect on the dynamics on larger scales, possibly affecting weather predictability.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Belinda Hotz, Heini Wernli, Matthias Röthlisberger, and Robin Noyelle
Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 1875–1897, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1875-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1875-2026, 2026
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We systematically investigate vertical temperature anomaly profiles during heat extremes on a global scale. Three distinct clusters emerge, aligning closely with the polar, mid-latitude, and tropical climate zones and capturing the key characteristics of the vertical profiles. While mid-latitude and polar profiles feature anomalies throughout the troposphere, with the highest temperature anomalies in the boundary layer, tropical temperature anomalies are confined to the boundary layer.
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Mel Fülster, Ruzica Dadic, Iris Thurnherr, and Heini Wernli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4721, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4721, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
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Winter-time fast ice extent and variability in McMurdo Sound is governed by strong wind events. We investigate the large scale atmospheric forcing leading to winter sea ice breakout events in McMurdo Sound from 2013–2024 using satellite-derived sea ice concentration data, weather station data and ERA-5 reanalysis data. Our results indicate that cyclones in the Ross Sea impact sea ice in McMurdo Sound indirectly through the barrier wind regime known as the Ross Ice Shelf air stream.
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Seraphine Hauser, Lukas Papritz, and Heini Wernli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5124, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5124, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
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This study analyses the sensitivity of numerical simulations of Storm Éowyn in January 2025 with respect to model resolution, initialisation time, and latent heating. High resolution is crucial to capture the structure and intensity of the cyclone, and the severe wind hazards that affected parts of the British Isles. In simulations with artificially reduced latent heating, the cyclone becomes less intense, and shifts northward compared to the control simulation, missing the British Isles.
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Sven Voigt, Hanin Binder, Seraphine Hauser, and Heini Wernli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4755, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4755, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
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This study uses 75 years of reanalysis data to identify extreme hazard cyclones, defined as systems accumulating a high number of extreme precipitation or surface wind events along their tracks. Globally, these cyclones form in the tropics and undergo extratropical transition. When restricting the analysis to the extratropical North Atlantic, they form at lower latitudes, are deeper, longer-lived, larger in cyclone area, and more rapidly intensifying relative to average extratropical cyclones.
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Matthias Röthlisberger, Michael Sprenger, Urs Beyerle, Erich M. Fischer, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 1363–1384, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1363-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1363-2026, 2026
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This study investigates yearly heat extremes simulated with the global climate model CESM2. A trajectory-based method is used, which allows quantifying the contributions to temperature anomalies from advection, subsidence, and diabatic heating. The results show that the magnitude of CESM2 heat extremes agrees fairly well with ERA5 reanalyses, but it is often
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for the partly wrong physical reasons.
Ming Hon Franco Lee, Hanna Joos, Heini Wernli, Richard Forbes, and Michael Sprenger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4184, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4184, 2026
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Turbulence near jet streams modifies the atmospheric flow, but there is limited research on the underlying mechanism. In this study, we infer this feedback by tracing the change in potential vorticity. We use an analytical framework to explain the systematic changes caused by turbulence in a numerical simulation of a jet stream. A typical tripolar pattern appears repeatedly, and it is highly related to the coherence of the jet. The improved understanding may help advance weather forecasts.
Ellina Agayar, Moshe Armon, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3025–3043, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3025-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3025-2026, 2026
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This study investigates the hydrometeorological features of the major floods of 2008, 2010, and 2020 in western Ukraine. All cases were linked to upper-level potential vorticity (PV) anomalies. We also conducted a climatological analysis of PV structure associated with 22 summer heavy precipitation events (2000–2022), highlighting their key role in determining the location and intensity of flood-inducing rainfall events in the Carpathians.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Tuule Müürsepp, Michael Sprenger, Heini Wernli, and Hanna Joos
Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 547–565, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-547-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-547-2026, 2026
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The tropopause region of the atmosphere is greatly impacted by the exchange of mass and constituents between the troposphere and the stratosphere. This study quantifies the role of radiation in troposphere-to-stratosphere transport using reanalysis data. We find that radiation contributes to this transport most of the time, albeit it might not be the dominant process. We provide a new insight into the complex interplay of processes that air parcels experience on their way to the stratosphere.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Nora Zilibotti, Heini Wernli, and Sebastian Schemm
Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 201–221, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-201-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-201-2026, 2026
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This study investigates the relationship between jet strength and storm track activity in the North Pacific and North Atlantic with a new approach that does not rely on monthly averaging. We find a consistent behaviour in the two basins, with two distinct relationships on seasonal and sub-monthly timescales emerging. This work underlines the importance of separating different timescales of variability to understand the interplay of jet characteristics and storm track activity.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Katharina Hartmuth, Dominik Büeler, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 129–148, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-129-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-129-2026, 2026
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This study presents three case studies of applying a newly developed method to quantify the uncertainty of the operational ensemble from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in forecasting precipitation and wind extremes associated with Mediterranean cyclones. We find that the cyclones as well as their associated extremes are predicted well for lead times ≤ 48 h; however, for longer lead times there is large case-to-case variability in the ensemble performance.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Franziska Schnyder, Ming Hon Franco Lee, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 1319–1337, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1319-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1319-2025, 2025
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In this study, we investigate a particularly long-lived example of a Siberian summer cyclone, which originates during a heat wave in Kazakhstan in July 2021 and propagates into the Arctic, where it leads to heavy precipitation and alters the Arctic tropopause. Although a rare event in current climate, this case reveals how compounding events may be linked by one weather system and portrays a type of cyclone event which is likely to become more frequent in a warmer climate.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Selvakumar Vishnupriya, Michael Sprenger, Hanna Joos, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 1195–1219, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1195-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1195-2025, 2025
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Extratropical cyclones feature rapidly ascending airstreams known as warm conveyor belts, which could influence upper-level flow dynamics. This study classifies interactions between warm conveyor belt outflows and the jet stream into four types: no interactions, ridges, blocks, and tropospheric cutoffs. We use reanalysis data to demonstrate that the interaction type depends on the structure of the ambient flow than on the outflow, improving our understanding of extratropical flow variability.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Killian P. Brennan, Iris Thurnherr, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3693–3712, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3693-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3693-2025, 2025
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Hailstorms can cause severe damage to homes, crops, and infrastructure. Using high-resolution climate simulations, we tracked thousands of hailstorms across Europe to study future changes. Large hail will become more frequent, hail-covered areas will expand, and instances of extreme hail combined with heavy rain will double. These shifts could increase risks for communities and businesses, highlighting the need for better preparedness and adaptation.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Luise J. Fischer, David N. Bresch, Dominik Büeler, Christian M. Grams, Robin Noyelle, Matthias Röthlisberger, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 1027–1043, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1027-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1027-2025, 2025
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Atmospheric flows over the North Atlantic can be meaningfully classified into weather regimes, and climate simulations suggest that the regime frequencies might change in the future. We provide a quantitative framework that helps assess whether these regime frequency changes are relevant to understanding climate change signals in precipitation. At least in our example application, in most regions, regime frequency changes explain little of the projected precipitation changes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Killian P. Brennan, Michael Sprenger, André Walser, Marco Arpagaus, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 645–668, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-645-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-645-2025, 2025
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We studied severe hailstorms that occurred in Switzerland on 28 June 2021 using a weather prediction model to understand how they evolved. We found that the storms moved toward areas with more storm energy. Hailfall was quickly followed by heavy rain. Just before the storms died out, the air feeding them stopped coming from near the ground. We also observed a delay between different types of precipitation forming in the incoming air.
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Katharina Hartmuth, Heini Wernli, and Lukas Papritz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 505–520, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-505-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-505-2025, 2025
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In this study, we use large-ensemble climate model simulations to analyze extreme winters in the Barents Sea in a changing climate. We find that variability in both atmospheric processes and sea ice conditions determines the formation of such seasons in the present-day climate. The reduction in sea ice variability results in a decreasing importance of surface boundary conditions in a warmer climate, while the robust link shown for surface weather systems persists.
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Nicolai Krieger, Heini Wernli, Michael Sprenger, and Christian Kühnlein
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 447–469, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-447-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-447-2025, 2025
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This study investigates the Laseyer, a local windstorm in a narrow Swiss valley characterized by strong southeasterly winds during northwesterly ambient flow. Using large-eddy simulations (LESs) with 30 m grid spacing, this is the first study to reveal that the extreme gusts in the valley are caused by an amplifying interplay of two recirculation regions. Modifying terrain and ambient wind conditions affects the windstorm's intensity and highlights the importance of topographic details in LES.
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Hanin Binder and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 151–170, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-151-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-151-2025, 2025
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This study presents a systematic analysis of frequency anomalies and characteristics of extratropical cyclones during extremely wet, dry, windy, and calm winter and summer seasons in the extratropics based on 1050 years of present-day climate simulations. We show that anomalies in cyclone frequency, intensity, and stationarity are crucial to the occurrence of many extreme seasons and that these anomaly patterns exhibit substantial regional and seasonal variability.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Stefano Ubbiali, Christian Kühnlein, Christoph Schär, Linda Schlemmer, Thomas C. Schulthess, Michael Staneker, and Heini Wernli
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 529–546, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-529-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-529-2025, 2025
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We explore a high-level programming model for porting numerical weather prediction (NWP) model codes to graphics processing units (GPUs). We present a Python rewrite with the domain-specific library GT4Py (GridTools for Python) of two renowned cloud microphysics schemes and the associated tangent-linear and adjoint algorithms. We find excellent portability, competitive GPU performance, robust execution on diverse computing architectures, and enhanced code maintainability and user productivity.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Stephanie Mayer, Martin Hendrick, Adrien Michel, Bettina Richter, Jürg Schweizer, Heini Wernli, and Alec van Herwijnen
The Cryosphere, 18, 5495–5517, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5495-2024, 2024
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Understanding the impact of climate change on snow avalanche activity is crucial for safeguarding lives and infrastructure. Here, we project changes in avalanche activity in the Swiss Alps throughout the 21st century. Our findings reveal elevation-dependent patterns of change, indicating a decrease in dry-snow avalanches alongside an increase in wet-snow avalanches at elevations above the current treeline. These results underscore the necessity to revisit measures for avalanche risk mitigation.
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Ellina Agayar, Franziska Aemisegger, Moshe Armon, Alexander Scherrmann, and Heini Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2441–2459, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, 2024
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This study presents the results of a climatological investigation of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in Ukraine for the period 1979–2019. During all seasons EPEs are associated with pronounced upper-level potential vorticity (PV) anomalies. In addition, we find distinct seasonal and regional differences in moisture sources. Several extreme precipitation cases demonstrate the importance of these processes, complemented by a detailed synoptic analysis.
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Katharina Heitmann, Michael Sprenger, Hanin Binder, Heini Wernli, and Hanna Joos
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 537–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-537-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-537-2024, 2024
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Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are coherently ascending air streams that occur in extratropical cyclones where they form precipitation and often affect the large-scale flow. We quantified the key characteristics and impacts of WCBs and linked them to different phases in the cyclone life cycle and to different WCB branches. A climatology of these metrics revealed that WCBs are most intense during cyclone intensification and that the cyclonic and anticyclonic WCB branches show distinct differences.
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Alexander Scherrmann, Heini Wernli, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 419–438, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-419-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-419-2024, 2024
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We show that the formation of Mediterranean cyclones follows the presence of cyclones over the North Atlantic. The distinct regions of cyclone activity in the Mediterranean in the different seasons can be linked to the atmospheric state, in particular the position of the polar jet over the North Atlantic. With this we now better understand the processes that lead to the formation of Mediterranean cyclones. We used a novel simulation framework in which we directly show and probe this connection.
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Esther S. Breuninger, Julie Tolu, Iris Thurnherr, Franziska Aemisegger, Aryeh Feinberg, Sylvain Bouchet, Jeroen E. Sonke, Véronique Pont, Heini Wernli, and Lenny H. E. Winkel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2491–2510, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2491-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2491-2024, 2024
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Atmospheric deposition is an important source of selenium (Se) and other health-relevant trace elements in surface environments. We found that the variability in elemental concentrations in atmospheric deposition reflects not only changes in emission sources but also weather conditions during atmospheric removal. Depending on the sources and if Se is derived more locally or from further away, the Se forms can be different, affecting the bioavailability of Se atmospherically supplied to soils.
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Julian F. Quinting, Christian M. Grams, Edmund Kar-Man Chang, Stephan Pfahl, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 65–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-65-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-65-2024, 2024
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Research in the last few decades has revealed that rapidly ascending airstreams in extratropical cyclones have an important effect on the evolution of downstream weather and predictability. In this study, we show that the occurrence of these airstreams over the North Pacific is modulated by tropical convection. Depending on the modulation, known atmospheric circulation patterns evolve quite differently, which may affect extended-range predictions in the Atlantic–European region.
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Leonie Villiger, Marina Dütsch, Sandrine Bony, Marie Lothon, Stephan Pfahl, Heini Wernli, Pierre-Etienne Brilouet, Patrick Chazette, Pierre Coutris, Julien Delanoë, Cyrille Flamant, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Martin Werner, and Franziska Aemisegger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14643–14672, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14643-2023, 2023
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This study evaluates three numerical simulations performed with an isotope-enabled weather forecast model and investigates the coupling between shallow trade-wind cumulus clouds and atmospheric circulations on different scales. We show that the simulations reproduce key characteristics of shallow trade-wind clouds as observed during the field experiment EUREC4A and that the spatial distribution of stable-water-vapour isotopes is shaped by the overturning circulation associated with these clouds.
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Elena De La Torre Castro, Tina Jurkat-Witschas, Armin Afchine, Volker Grewe, Valerian Hahn, Simon Kirschler, Martina Krämer, Johannes Lucke, Nicole Spelten, Heini Wernli, Martin Zöger, and Christiane Voigt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13167–13189, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13167-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13167-2023, 2023
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In this study, we show the differences in the microphysical properties between high-latitude (HL) cirrus and mid-latitude (ML) cirrus over the Arctic, North Atlantic, and central Europe during summer. The in situ measurements are combined with backward trajectories to investigate the influence of the region on cloud formation. We show that HL cirrus are characterized by a lower concentration of larger ice crystals when compared to ML cirrus.
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Mark J. Rodwell and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 591–615, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-591-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-591-2023, 2023
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Midlatitude storms and their downstream impacts have a major impact on society, yet their prediction is especially prone to uncertainty. While this can never be fully eliminated, we find that the initial rate of growth of uncertainty varies for a range of forecast models. Examination of the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suggests ways in which uncertainty growth could be reduced, leading to sharper and more reliable forecasts over the first few days.
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Mauro Hermann, Matthias Röthlisberger, Arthur Gessler, Andreas Rigling, Cornelius Senf, Thomas Wohlgemuth, and Heini Wernli
Biogeosciences, 20, 1155–1180, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1155-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1155-2023, 2023
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This study examines the multi-annual meteorological history of low-forest-greenness events in Europe's temperate and Mediterranean biome in 2002–2022. We systematically identify anomalies in temperature, precipitation, and weather systems as event precursors, with noteworthy differences between the two biomes. We also quantify the impact of the most extensive event in 2022 (37 % coverage), underlining the importance of understanding the forest–meteorology interaction in a changing climate.
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Alexander Scherrmann, Heini Wernli, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 157–173, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-157-2023, 2023
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We investigate the dynamical origin of the lower-atmospheric potential vorticity (PV; linked to the intensity of cyclones) in Mediterranean cyclones. We quantify the contribution of the cyclone and the environment by tracing PV backward in time and space and linking it to the track of the cyclone. We find that the lower-tropospheric PV is produced shortly before the cyclone's stage of highest intensity. We investigate the driving processes and use a global dataset and a process-resolving one.
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Hanna Joos, Michael Sprenger, Hanin Binder, Urs Beyerle, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 133–155, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-133-2023, 2023
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Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are strongly ascending, cloud- and precipitation-forming airstreams in extratropical cyclones. In this study we assess their representation in a climate simulation and their changes under global warming. They become moister, become more intense, and reach higher altitudes in a future climate, implying that they potentially have an increased impact on the mid-latitude flow.
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Andreas Schäfler, Michael Sprenger, Heini Wernli, Andreas Fix, and Martin Wirth
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 999–1018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-999-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-999-2023, 2023
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In this study, airborne lidar profile measurements of H2O and O3 across a midlatitude jet stream are combined with analyses in tracer–trace space and backward trajectories. We highlight that transport and mixing processes in the history of the observed air masses are governed by interacting tropospheric weather systems on synoptic timescales. We show that these weather systems play a key role in the high variability of the paired H2O and O3 distributions near the tropopause.
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Hanin Binder, Hanna Joos, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 19–37, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-19-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-19-2023, 2023
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Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are the main cloud- and precipitation-producing airstreams in extratropical cyclones. The latent heat release that occurs during cloud formation often contributes to the intensification of the associated cyclone. Based on the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble coupled climate simulations, we show that WCBs and associated latent heating will become stronger in a future climate and be even more important for explosive cyclone intensification than in the present.
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Andries Jan de Vries, Franziska Aemisegger, Stephan Pfahl, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 8863–8895, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8863-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8863-2022, 2022
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The Earth's water cycle contains the common H2O molecule but also the less abundant, heavier HDO. We use their different physical properties to study tropical ice clouds in model simulations of the West African monsoon. Isotope signals reveal different processes through which ice clouds form and decay in deep-convective and widespread cirrus. Previously observed variations in upper-tropospheric vapour isotopes are explained by microphysical processes in convective updraughts and downdraughts.
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Philipp Zschenderlein and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 391–411, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-391-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-391-2022, 2022
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Precipitation and temperature are two of the most important variables describing our weather and climate. The relationship between these variables has been studied extensively; however, the role of specific weather systems in shaping this relationship has not been analysed yet. We therefore analyse whether intense precipitation occurs on warmer or on colder days and identify the relevant weather systems. In general, weather systems strongly influence this relationship, especially in winter.
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Jan Clemens, Felix Ploeger, Paul Konopka, Raphael Portmann, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3841–3860, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3841-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3841-2022, 2022
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Highly polluted air flows from the surface to higher levels of the atmosphere during the Asian summer monsoon. At high levels, the air is trapped within eddies. Here, we study how air masses can leave the eddy within its cutoff, how they distribute, and how their chemical composition changes. We found evidence for transport from the eddy to higher latitudes over the North Pacific and even Alaska. During transport, trace gas concentrations within cutoffs changed gradually, showing steady mixing.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Katharina Hartmuth, Maxi Boettcher, Heini Wernli, and Lukas Papritz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 89–111, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-89-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-89-2022, 2022
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In this study, we introduce a novel method to objectively define and identify extreme Arctic seasons based on different surface variables. We find that such seasons are resulting from various combinations of unusual seasonal conditions. The occurrence or absence of different atmospheric processes strongly affects the character of extreme Arctic seasons. Further, changes in sea ice and sea surface temperature can strongly influence the formation of such a season in distinct regions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Leonie Villiger, Heini Wernli, Maxi Boettcher, Martin Hagen, and Franziska Aemisegger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 59–88, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-59-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-59-2022, 2022
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The coupling between the large-scale atmospheric circulation and the clouds in the trade-wind region is complex and not yet fully understood. In this study, the formation pathway of two anomalous cloud layers over Barbados during the field campaign EUREC4A is described. The two case studies highlight the influence of remote weather systems on the local environmental conditions in Barbados.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Philipp Zschenderlein and Heini Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-396, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-396, 2022
Preprint withdrawn
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In early January 2021, Spain was affected by two extreme events – an unusually long cold spell and a heavy snowfall event associated with extratropical cyclone Filomena. In the study, we analyse the synoptic-dynamic development of the two extreme events. Cold air from the north was advected towards Spain and between 07 and 10 January, cyclone Filomena was responsible for major parts of the snowfall event. During this event, temperature and moisture contrasts accross Spain were very high.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Roman Attinger, Elisa Spreitzer, Maxi Boettcher, Heini Wernli, and Hanna Joos
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1073–1091, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1073-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1073-2021, 2021
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Diabatic processes affect the development of extratropical cyclones. This work provides a systematic assessment of the diabatic processes that modify potential vorticity (PV) in model simulations. PV is primarily produced by condensation and convection. Given favorable environmental conditions, long-wave radiative cooling and turbulence become the primary process at the cold and warm fronts, respectively. Turbulence and long-wave radiative heating produce negative PV anomalies at the fronts.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Fabienne Dahinden, Franziska Aemisegger, Heini Wernli, Matthias Schneider, Christopher J. Diekmann, Benjamin Ertl, Peter Knippertz, Martin Werner, and Stephan Pfahl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16319–16347, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16319-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16319-2021, 2021
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We use high-resolution numerical isotope modelling and Lagrangian backward trajectories to identify moisture transport pathways and governing physical and dynamical processes that affect the free-tropospheric humidity and isotopic variability over the eastern subtropical North Atlantic. Furthermore, we conduct a thorough isotope modelling validation with aircraft and remote-sensing observations of water vapour isotopes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ming Hon Franco Lee, Hanna Joos, Heini Wernli, Richard Forbes, and Michael Sprenger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4609, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4609, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
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Warm conveyor belts are coherent, rapidly ascending airstreams in extratropical cyclones, creating divergent outflows at upper levels. Using a numerical simulation, turbulence is found modifying potential vorticity near the tropopause in an outflow region. Despite the complex flow, changes in potential vorticity are retained due to the coordination provided by the outflow, leading to a potential upscale effect on the dynamics on larger scales, possibly affecting weather predictability.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Belinda Hotz, Heini Wernli, Matthias Röthlisberger, and Robin Noyelle
Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 1875–1897, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1875-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1875-2026, 2026
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We systematically investigate vertical temperature anomaly profiles during heat extremes on a global scale. Three distinct clusters emerge, aligning closely with the polar, mid-latitude, and tropical climate zones and capturing the key characteristics of the vertical profiles. While mid-latitude and polar profiles feature anomalies throughout the troposphere, with the highest temperature anomalies in the boundary layer, tropical temperature anomalies are confined to the boundary layer.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Mel Fülster, Ruzica Dadic, Iris Thurnherr, and Heini Wernli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4721, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4721, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
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Winter-time fast ice extent and variability in McMurdo Sound is governed by strong wind events. We investigate the large scale atmospheric forcing leading to winter sea ice breakout events in McMurdo Sound from 2013–2024 using satellite-derived sea ice concentration data, weather station data and ERA-5 reanalysis data. Our results indicate that cyclones in the Ross Sea impact sea ice in McMurdo Sound indirectly through the barrier wind regime known as the Ross Ice Shelf air stream.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Seraphine Hauser, Lukas Papritz, and Heini Wernli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5124, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5124, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
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This study analyses the sensitivity of numerical simulations of Storm Éowyn in January 2025 with respect to model resolution, initialisation time, and latent heating. High resolution is crucial to capture the structure and intensity of the cyclone, and the severe wind hazards that affected parts of the British Isles. In simulations with artificially reduced latent heating, the cyclone becomes less intense, and shifts northward compared to the control simulation, missing the British Isles.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Sven Voigt, Hanin Binder, Seraphine Hauser, and Heini Wernli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4755, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4755, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
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This study uses 75 years of reanalysis data to identify extreme hazard cyclones, defined as systems accumulating a high number of extreme precipitation or surface wind events along their tracks. Globally, these cyclones form in the tropics and undergo extratropical transition. When restricting the analysis to the extratropical North Atlantic, they form at lower latitudes, are deeper, longer-lived, larger in cyclone area, and more rapidly intensifying relative to average extratropical cyclones.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Emmanouil Flaounas and Suzanne L. Gray
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4860, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4860, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
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Tropical cyclones are high-impact weather events, yet the processes driving their development remain uncertain. We simulated Katrina (2005) and Usagi (2013) and quantified how physical processes build or erode their intensity. The convective eyewall drives intensity, but the calm eye dictates intensification and decay through opposing frictional and radiative processes at the sea surface. These compete almost equally, and when cooling wins the storm's structure collapses and it decays.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Andressa Andrade Cardoso, Suzanne L. Gray, Ambrogio Volonté, Ben J. Harvey, and Claudio Sánchez
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4757, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4757, 2026
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We studied whether high-resolution weather models that simulate thunderstorm clouds directly, rather than estimating their effects, improve forecasts of hazardous Mediterranean storms. Unlike more typical Mediterranean storms, tropical-cyclone-like medicanes became much stronger in the high-resolution simulations. However, the results also depended on how physical processes were represented, showing that more accurate forecasts require both better model design and higher resolution.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Matthias Röthlisberger, Michael Sprenger, Urs Beyerle, Erich M. Fischer, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 1363–1384, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1363-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1363-2026, 2026
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This study investigates yearly heat extremes simulated with the global climate model CESM2. A trajectory-based method is used, which allows quantifying the contributions to temperature anomalies from advection, subsidence, and diabatic heating. The results show that the magnitude of CESM2 heat extremes agrees fairly well with ERA5 reanalyses, but it is often
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for the partly wrong physical reasons.
Ming Hon Franco Lee, Hanna Joos, Heini Wernli, Richard Forbes, and Michael Sprenger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4184, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4184, 2026
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Turbulence near jet streams modifies the atmospheric flow, but there is limited research on the underlying mechanism. In this study, we infer this feedback by tracing the change in potential vorticity. We use an analytical framework to explain the systematic changes caused by turbulence in a numerical simulation of a jet stream. A typical tripolar pattern appears repeatedly, and it is highly related to the coherence of the jet. The improved understanding may help advance weather forecasts.
Ellina Agayar, Moshe Armon, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3025–3043, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3025-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3025-2026, 2026
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This study investigates the hydrometeorological features of the major floods of 2008, 2010, and 2020 in western Ukraine. All cases were linked to upper-level potential vorticity (PV) anomalies. We also conducted a climatological analysis of PV structure associated with 22 summer heavy precipitation events (2000–2022), highlighting their key role in determining the location and intensity of flood-inducing rainfall events in the Carpathians.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Tuule Müürsepp, Michael Sprenger, Heini Wernli, and Hanna Joos
Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 547–565, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-547-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-547-2026, 2026
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The tropopause region of the atmosphere is greatly impacted by the exchange of mass and constituents between the troposphere and the stratosphere. This study quantifies the role of radiation in troposphere-to-stratosphere transport using reanalysis data. We find that radiation contributes to this transport most of the time, albeit it might not be the dominant process. We provide a new insight into the complex interplay of processes that air parcels experience on their way to the stratosphere.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Nora Zilibotti, Heini Wernli, and Sebastian Schemm
Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 201–221, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-201-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-201-2026, 2026
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This study investigates the relationship between jet strength and storm track activity in the North Pacific and North Atlantic with a new approach that does not rely on monthly averaging. We find a consistent behaviour in the two basins, with two distinct relationships on seasonal and sub-monthly timescales emerging. This work underlines the importance of separating different timescales of variability to understand the interplay of jet characteristics and storm track activity.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Katharina Hartmuth, Dominik Büeler, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 129–148, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-129-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-129-2026, 2026
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This study presents three case studies of applying a newly developed method to quantify the uncertainty of the operational ensemble from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in forecasting precipitation and wind extremes associated with Mediterranean cyclones. We find that the cyclones as well as their associated extremes are predicted well for lead times ≤ 48 h; however, for longer lead times there is large case-to-case variability in the ensemble performance.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Franziska Schnyder, Ming Hon Franco Lee, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 1319–1337, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1319-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1319-2025, 2025
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In this study, we investigate a particularly long-lived example of a Siberian summer cyclone, which originates during a heat wave in Kazakhstan in July 2021 and propagates into the Arctic, where it leads to heavy precipitation and alters the Arctic tropopause. Although a rare event in current climate, this case reveals how compounding events may be linked by one weather system and portrays a type of cyclone event which is likely to become more frequent in a warmer climate.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Selvakumar Vishnupriya, Michael Sprenger, Hanna Joos, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 1195–1219, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1195-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1195-2025, 2025
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Extratropical cyclones feature rapidly ascending airstreams known as warm conveyor belts, which could influence upper-level flow dynamics. This study classifies interactions between warm conveyor belt outflows and the jet stream into four types: no interactions, ridges, blocks, and tropospheric cutoffs. We use reanalysis data to demonstrate that the interaction type depends on the structure of the ambient flow than on the outflow, improving our understanding of extratropical flow variability.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Killian P. Brennan, Iris Thurnherr, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3693–3712, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3693-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3693-2025, 2025
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Hailstorms can cause severe damage to homes, crops, and infrastructure. Using high-resolution climate simulations, we tracked thousands of hailstorms across Europe to study future changes. Large hail will become more frequent, hail-covered areas will expand, and instances of extreme hail combined with heavy rain will double. These shifts could increase risks for communities and businesses, highlighting the need for better preparedness and adaptation.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Luise J. Fischer, David N. Bresch, Dominik Büeler, Christian M. Grams, Robin Noyelle, Matthias Röthlisberger, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 1027–1043, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1027-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1027-2025, 2025
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Atmospheric flows over the North Atlantic can be meaningfully classified into weather regimes, and climate simulations suggest that the regime frequencies might change in the future. We provide a quantitative framework that helps assess whether these regime frequency changes are relevant to understanding climate change signals in precipitation. At least in our example application, in most regions, regime frequency changes explain little of the projected precipitation changes.
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Killian P. Brennan, Michael Sprenger, André Walser, Marco Arpagaus, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 645–668, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-645-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-645-2025, 2025
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We studied severe hailstorms that occurred in Switzerland on 28 June 2021 using a weather prediction model to understand how they evolved. We found that the storms moved toward areas with more storm energy. Hailfall was quickly followed by heavy rain. Just before the storms died out, the air feeding them stopped coming from near the ground. We also observed a delay between different types of precipitation forming in the incoming air.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Katharina Hartmuth, Heini Wernli, and Lukas Papritz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 505–520, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-505-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-505-2025, 2025
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In this study, we use large-ensemble climate model simulations to analyze extreme winters in the Barents Sea in a changing climate. We find that variability in both atmospheric processes and sea ice conditions determines the formation of such seasons in the present-day climate. The reduction in sea ice variability results in a decreasing importance of surface boundary conditions in a warmer climate, while the robust link shown for surface weather systems persists.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Nicolai Krieger, Heini Wernli, Michael Sprenger, and Christian Kühnlein
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 447–469, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-447-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-447-2025, 2025
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This study investigates the Laseyer, a local windstorm in a narrow Swiss valley characterized by strong southeasterly winds during northwesterly ambient flow. Using large-eddy simulations (LESs) with 30 m grid spacing, this is the first study to reveal that the extreme gusts in the valley are caused by an amplifying interplay of two recirculation regions. Modifying terrain and ambient wind conditions affects the windstorm's intensity and highlights the importance of topographic details in LES.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Hanin Binder and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 151–170, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-151-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-151-2025, 2025
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This study presents a systematic analysis of frequency anomalies and characteristics of extratropical cyclones during extremely wet, dry, windy, and calm winter and summer seasons in the extratropics based on 1050 years of present-day climate simulations. We show that anomalies in cyclone frequency, intensity, and stationarity are crucial to the occurrence of many extreme seasons and that these anomaly patterns exhibit substantial regional and seasonal variability.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Stefano Ubbiali, Christian Kühnlein, Christoph Schär, Linda Schlemmer, Thomas C. Schulthess, Michael Staneker, and Heini Wernli
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 529–546, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-529-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-529-2025, 2025
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We explore a high-level programming model for porting numerical weather prediction (NWP) model codes to graphics processing units (GPUs). We present a Python rewrite with the domain-specific library GT4Py (GridTools for Python) of two renowned cloud microphysics schemes and the associated tangent-linear and adjoint algorithms. We find excellent portability, competitive GPU performance, robust execution on diverse computing architectures, and enhanced code maintainability and user productivity.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Suzanne L. Gray, Ambrogio Volonté, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, and Ben J. Harvey
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1523–1544, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1523-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1523-2024, 2024
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Sting jets occur in some of the most damaging cyclones impacting Europe. We present the first climatology of sting-jet cyclones over the major ocean basins. Cyclones with sting-jet precursors occur over the North Atlantic, North Pacific, and Southern Oceans, with implications for wind warnings. Precursor cyclones have distinct characteristics, even in reanalyses that are too coarse to fully resolve sting jets, evidencing the climatological consequences of strong diabatic cloud processes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Stephanie Mayer, Martin Hendrick, Adrien Michel, Bettina Richter, Jürg Schweizer, Heini Wernli, and Alec van Herwijnen
The Cryosphere, 18, 5495–5517, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5495-2024, 2024
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Understanding the impact of climate change on snow avalanche activity is crucial for safeguarding lives and infrastructure. Here, we project changes in avalanche activity in the Swiss Alps throughout the 21st century. Our findings reveal elevation-dependent patterns of change, indicating a decrease in dry-snow avalanches alongside an increase in wet-snow avalanches at elevations above the current treeline. These results underscore the necessity to revisit measures for avalanche risk mitigation.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Claudio Sánchez, Suzanne Gray, Ambrogio Volonté, Florian Pantillon, Ségolène Berthou, and Silvio Davolio
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1429–1455, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1429-2024, 2024
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Medicane Ianos was a very intense cyclone that led to harmful impacts over Greece. We explore what processes are important for the forecasting of Medicane Ianos, with the use of the Met Office weather model. There was a preceding precipitation event before Ianos’s birth, whose energetics generated a bubble in the tropopause. This bubble created the necessary conditions for Ianos to emerge and strengthen, and the processes are enhanced in simulations with a warmer Mediterranean Sea.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Florian Pantillon, Silvio Davolio, Elenio Avolio, Carlos Calvo-Sancho, Diego Saul Carrió, Stavros Dafis, Emanuele Silvio Gentile, Juan Jesus Gonzalez-Aleman, Suzanne Gray, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Platon Patlakas, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Didier Ricard, Antonio Ricchi, Claudio Sanchez, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1187–1205, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1187-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1187-2024, 2024
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Cyclone Ianos of September 2020 was a high-impact but poorly predicted medicane (Mediterranean hurricane). A community effort of numerical modelling provides robust results to improve prediction. It is found that the representation of local thunderstorms controlled the interaction of Ianos with a jet stream at larger scales and its subsequent evolution. The results help us understand the peculiar dynamics of medicanes and provide guidance for the next generation of weather and climate models.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ellina Agayar, Franziska Aemisegger, Moshe Armon, Alexander Scherrmann, and Heini Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2441–2459, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, 2024
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This study presents the results of a climatological investigation of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in Ukraine for the period 1979–2019. During all seasons EPEs are associated with pronounced upper-level potential vorticity (PV) anomalies. In addition, we find distinct seasonal and regional differences in moisture sources. Several extreme precipitation cases demonstrate the importance of these processes, complemented by a detailed synoptic analysis.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Katharina Heitmann, Michael Sprenger, Hanin Binder, Heini Wernli, and Hanna Joos
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 537–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-537-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-537-2024, 2024
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Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are coherently ascending air streams that occur in extratropical cyclones where they form precipitation and often affect the large-scale flow. We quantified the key characteristics and impacts of WCBs and linked them to different phases in the cyclone life cycle and to different WCB branches. A climatology of these metrics revealed that WCBs are most intense during cyclone intensification and that the cyclonic and anticyclonic WCB branches show distinct differences.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alexander Scherrmann, Heini Wernli, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 419–438, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-419-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-419-2024, 2024
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We show that the formation of Mediterranean cyclones follows the presence of cyclones over the North Atlantic. The distinct regions of cyclone activity in the Mediterranean in the different seasons can be linked to the atmospheric state, in particular the position of the polar jet over the North Atlantic. With this we now better understand the processes that lead to the formation of Mediterranean cyclones. We used a novel simulation framework in which we directly show and probe this connection.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Esther S. Breuninger, Julie Tolu, Iris Thurnherr, Franziska Aemisegger, Aryeh Feinberg, Sylvain Bouchet, Jeroen E. Sonke, Véronique Pont, Heini Wernli, and Lenny H. E. Winkel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2491–2510, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2491-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2491-2024, 2024
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Atmospheric deposition is an important source of selenium (Se) and other health-relevant trace elements in surface environments. We found that the variability in elemental concentrations in atmospheric deposition reflects not only changes in emission sources but also weather conditions during atmospheric removal. Depending on the sources and if Se is derived more locally or from further away, the Se forms can be different, affecting the bioavailability of Se atmospherically supplied to soils.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Julian F. Quinting, Christian M. Grams, Edmund Kar-Man Chang, Stephan Pfahl, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 65–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-65-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-65-2024, 2024
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Research in the last few decades has revealed that rapidly ascending airstreams in extratropical cyclones have an important effect on the evolution of downstream weather and predictability. In this study, we show that the occurrence of these airstreams over the North Pacific is modulated by tropical convection. Depending on the modulation, known atmospheric circulation patterns evolve quite differently, which may affect extended-range predictions in the Atlantic–European region.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Leonie Villiger, Marina Dütsch, Sandrine Bony, Marie Lothon, Stephan Pfahl, Heini Wernli, Pierre-Etienne Brilouet, Patrick Chazette, Pierre Coutris, Julien Delanoë, Cyrille Flamant, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Martin Werner, and Franziska Aemisegger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14643–14672, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14643-2023, 2023
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This study evaluates three numerical simulations performed with an isotope-enabled weather forecast model and investigates the coupling between shallow trade-wind cumulus clouds and atmospheric circulations on different scales. We show that the simulations reproduce key characteristics of shallow trade-wind clouds as observed during the field experiment EUREC4A and that the spatial distribution of stable-water-vapour isotopes is shaped by the overturning circulation associated with these clouds.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Elena De La Torre Castro, Tina Jurkat-Witschas, Armin Afchine, Volker Grewe, Valerian Hahn, Simon Kirschler, Martina Krämer, Johannes Lucke, Nicole Spelten, Heini Wernli, Martin Zöger, and Christiane Voigt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13167–13189, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13167-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13167-2023, 2023
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In this study, we show the differences in the microphysical properties between high-latitude (HL) cirrus and mid-latitude (ML) cirrus over the Arctic, North Atlantic, and central Europe during summer. The in situ measurements are combined with backward trajectories to investigate the influence of the region on cloud formation. We show that HL cirrus are characterized by a lower concentration of larger ice crystals when compared to ML cirrus.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Emmanouil Flaounas, Leonardo Aragão, Lisa Bernini, Stavros Dafis, Benjamin Doiteau, Helena Flocas, Suzanne L. Gray, Alexia Karwat, John Kouroutzoglou, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Florian Pantillon, Claudia Pasquero, Platon Patlakas, María Ángeles Picornell, Federico Porcù, Matthew D. K. Priestley, Marco Reale, Malcolm J. Roberts, Hadas Saaroni, Dor Sandler, Enrico Scoccimarro, Michael Sprenger, and Baruch Ziv
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 639–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023, 2023
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Cyclone detection and tracking methods (CDTMs) have different approaches in defining and tracking cyclone centers. This leads to disagreements on extratropical cyclone climatologies. We present a new approach that combines tracks from individual CDTMs to produce new composite tracks. These new tracks are shown to correspond to physically meaningful systems with distinctive life stages.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Mark J. Rodwell and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 591–615, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-591-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-591-2023, 2023
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Midlatitude storms and their downstream impacts have a major impact on society, yet their prediction is especially prone to uncertainty. While this can never be fully eliminated, we find that the initial rate of growth of uncertainty varies for a range of forecast models. Examination of the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suggests ways in which uncertainty growth could be reduced, leading to sharper and more reliable forecasts over the first few days.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ed Hawkins, Philip Brohan, Samantha N. Burgess, Stephen Burt, Gilbert P. Compo, Suzanne L. Gray, Ivan D. Haigh, Hans Hersbach, Kiki Kuijjer, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Chesley McColl, Andrew P. Schurer, Laura Slivinski, and Joanne Williams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1465–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, 2023
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We examine a severe windstorm that occurred in February 1903 and caused significant damage in the UK and Ireland. Using newly digitized weather observations from the time of the storm, combined with a modern weather forecast model, allows us to determine why this storm caused so much damage. We demonstrate that the event is one of the most severe windstorms to affect this region since detailed records began. The approach establishes a new tool to improve assessments of risk from extreme weather.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Mauro Hermann, Matthias Röthlisberger, Arthur Gessler, Andreas Rigling, Cornelius Senf, Thomas Wohlgemuth, and Heini Wernli
Biogeosciences, 20, 1155–1180, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1155-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1155-2023, 2023
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This study examines the multi-annual meteorological history of low-forest-greenness events in Europe's temperate and Mediterranean biome in 2002–2022. We systematically identify anomalies in temperature, precipitation, and weather systems as event precursors, with noteworthy differences between the two biomes. We also quantify the impact of the most extensive event in 2022 (37 % coverage), underlining the importance of understanding the forest–meteorology interaction in a changing climate.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alexander Scherrmann, Heini Wernli, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 157–173, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-157-2023, 2023
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We investigate the dynamical origin of the lower-atmospheric potential vorticity (PV; linked to the intensity of cyclones) in Mediterranean cyclones. We quantify the contribution of the cyclone and the environment by tracing PV backward in time and space and linking it to the track of the cyclone. We find that the lower-tropospheric PV is produced shortly before the cyclone's stage of highest intensity. We investigate the driving processes and use a global dataset and a process-resolving one.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Hanna Joos, Michael Sprenger, Hanin Binder, Urs Beyerle, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 133–155, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-133-2023, 2023
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Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are strongly ascending, cloud- and precipitation-forming airstreams in extratropical cyclones. In this study we assess their representation in a climate simulation and their changes under global warming. They become moister, become more intense, and reach higher altitudes in a future climate, implying that they potentially have an increased impact on the mid-latitude flow.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Andreas Schäfler, Michael Sprenger, Heini Wernli, Andreas Fix, and Martin Wirth
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 999–1018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-999-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-999-2023, 2023
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In this study, airborne lidar profile measurements of H2O and O3 across a midlatitude jet stream are combined with analyses in tracer–trace space and backward trajectories. We highlight that transport and mixing processes in the history of the observed air masses are governed by interacting tropospheric weather systems on synoptic timescales. We show that these weather systems play a key role in the high variability of the paired H2O and O3 distributions near the tropopause.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Hanin Binder, Hanna Joos, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 19–37, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-19-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-19-2023, 2023
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Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are the main cloud- and precipitation-producing airstreams in extratropical cyclones. The latent heat release that occurs during cloud formation often contributes to the intensification of the associated cyclone. Based on the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble coupled climate simulations, we show that WCBs and associated latent heating will become stronger in a future climate and be even more important for explosive cyclone intensification than in the present.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Andries Jan de Vries, Franziska Aemisegger, Stephan Pfahl, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 8863–8895, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8863-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8863-2022, 2022
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The Earth's water cycle contains the common H2O molecule but also the less abundant, heavier HDO. We use their different physical properties to study tropical ice clouds in model simulations of the West African monsoon. Isotope signals reveal different processes through which ice clouds form and decay in deep-convective and widespread cirrus. Previously observed variations in upper-tropospheric vapour isotopes are explained by microphysical processes in convective updraughts and downdraughts.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Philipp Zschenderlein and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 391–411, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-391-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-391-2022, 2022
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Precipitation and temperature are two of the most important variables describing our weather and climate. The relationship between these variables has been studied extensively; however, the role of specific weather systems in shaping this relationship has not been analysed yet. We therefore analyse whether intense precipitation occurs on warmer or on colder days and identify the relevant weather systems. In general, weather systems strongly influence this relationship, especially in winter.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jan Clemens, Felix Ploeger, Paul Konopka, Raphael Portmann, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3841–3860, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3841-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3841-2022, 2022
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Highly polluted air flows from the surface to higher levels of the atmosphere during the Asian summer monsoon. At high levels, the air is trapped within eddies. Here, we study how air masses can leave the eddy within its cutoff, how they distribute, and how their chemical composition changes. We found evidence for transport from the eddy to higher latitudes over the North Pacific and even Alaska. During transport, trace gas concentrations within cutoffs changed gradually, showing steady mixing.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Katharina Hartmuth, Maxi Boettcher, Heini Wernli, and Lukas Papritz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 89–111, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-89-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-89-2022, 2022
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In this study, we introduce a novel method to objectively define and identify extreme Arctic seasons based on different surface variables. We find that such seasons are resulting from various combinations of unusual seasonal conditions. The occurrence or absence of different atmospheric processes strongly affects the character of extreme Arctic seasons. Further, changes in sea ice and sea surface temperature can strongly influence the formation of such a season in distinct regions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Leonie Villiger, Heini Wernli, Maxi Boettcher, Martin Hagen, and Franziska Aemisegger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 59–88, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-59-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-59-2022, 2022
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The coupling between the large-scale atmospheric circulation and the clouds in the trade-wind region is complex and not yet fully understood. In this study, the formation pathway of two anomalous cloud layers over Barbados during the field campaign EUREC4A is described. The two case studies highlight the influence of remote weather systems on the local environmental conditions in Barbados.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Philipp Zschenderlein and Heini Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-396, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-396, 2022
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In early January 2021, Spain was affected by two extreme events – an unusually long cold spell and a heavy snowfall event associated with extratropical cyclone Filomena. In the study, we analyse the synoptic-dynamic development of the two extreme events. Cold air from the north was advected towards Spain and between 07 and 10 January, cyclone Filomena was responsible for major parts of the snowfall event. During this event, temperature and moisture contrasts accross Spain were very high.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Suzanne L. Gray, Kevin I. Hodges, Jonathan L. Vautrey, and John Methven
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1303–1324, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1303-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1303-2021, 2021
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This research demonstrates, using feature identification and tracking, that anticlockwise rotating vortices at about 7 km altitude called tropopause polar vortices frequently interact with storms developing in the Arctic region, affecting their structure and where they occur. This interaction has implications for the predictability of Arctic weather, given the long lifetime but a relatively small spatial scale of these vortices compared with the density of the polar observation network.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Roman Attinger, Elisa Spreitzer, Maxi Boettcher, Heini Wernli, and Hanna Joos
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1073–1091, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1073-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1073-2021, 2021
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Diabatic processes affect the development of extratropical cyclones. This work provides a systematic assessment of the diabatic processes that modify potential vorticity (PV) in model simulations. PV is primarily produced by condensation and convection. Given favorable environmental conditions, long-wave radiative cooling and turbulence become the primary process at the cold and warm fronts, respectively. Turbulence and long-wave radiative heating produce negative PV anomalies at the fronts.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Fabienne Dahinden, Franziska Aemisegger, Heini Wernli, Matthias Schneider, Christopher J. Diekmann, Benjamin Ertl, Peter Knippertz, Martin Werner, and Stephan Pfahl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16319–16347, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16319-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16319-2021, 2021
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We use high-resolution numerical isotope modelling and Lagrangian backward trajectories to identify moisture transport pathways and governing physical and dynamical processes that affect the free-tropospheric humidity and isotopic variability over the eastern subtropical North Atlantic. Furthermore, we conduct a thorough isotope modelling validation with aircraft and remote-sensing observations of water vapour isotopes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
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The science of extratropical dynamics has reached a new level where the interplay of dry dynamics with effects of latent heating in clouds and other diabatic processes is considered central to the field. This review documents how research about the role of diabatic processes evolved over more than a century; it highlights that progress relied essentially on the integration of theory, field campaigns, novel diagnostics, and numerical modelling, and it outlines avenues for future research.
The science of extratropical dynamics has reached a new level where the interplay of dry...
