Articles | Volume 3, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-305-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-305-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review article
| 
29 Mar 2022
Review article |
| 29 Mar 2022
| 29 Mar 2022
Atmospheric blocking and weather extremes over the Euro-Atlantic sector – a review
Lisa-Ann Kautz
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
Olivia Martius
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research and Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Stephan Pfahl
Institute of Meteorology, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Joaquim G. Pinto
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
Alexandre M. Ramos
Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
Pedro M. Sousa
Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera (IPMA), Lisbon, Portugal
Tim Woollings
Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
Related authors
Florian Ehmele, Lisa-Ann Kautz, Hendrik Feldmann, Yi He, Martin Kadlec, Fanni D. Kelemen, Hilke S. Lentink, Patrick Ludwig, Desmond Manful, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 677–692, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-677-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-677-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
For various applications, it is crucial to have profound knowledge of the frequency, severity, and risk of extreme flood events. Such events are characterized by very long return periods which observations can not cover. We use a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations as input for a hydrological model. Precipitation data were post-processed to reduce systematic errors. The representation of precipitation and discharge is improved, and estimates of long return periods become robust.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Florian Ehmele, Lisa-Ann Kautz, Hendrik Feldmann, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 469–490, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-469-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-469-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a large novel data set of climate model simulations for central Europe covering the years 1900–2028 at a 25 km resolution. The focus is on intensive areal precipitation values. The data set is validated against observations using different statistical approaches. The results reveal an adequate quality in a statistical sense as well as some long-term variability with phases of increased and decreased heavy precipitation. The predictions of the near future show continuity.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Lisa-Ann Kautz, Florian Ehmele, Patrick Ludwig, Hilke S. Lentink, Fanni D. Kelemen, Martin Kadlec, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-77, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-77, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
To quantify the flooding risk for Europe it is necessary to run hydrological models. As input for these models, a consistent stochastic precipitation dataset is needed. In the present study, a combined approach is presented on how to generate such a dataset based on dynamical downscaling and subsequent bias correction. Empirical quantile mapping was identified as suitable bias correction method as it led to improvements for specific severe river floods as well as in a climatological perspective.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ines Dillerup, Alexander Lemburg, Sebastian Buschow, and Joaquim G. Pinto
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3379, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3379, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze the duration of large-scale weather patterns and their link to near-surface temperatures during heatwaves in Central Europe for 1950–2023. Compared to non-heatwave days, a stronger link between them is found on heatwave days from May to September. We relate our results to typical long-lasting weather patterns known as weather regimes. In July and August, weather patterns last longer as west winds are often blocked by Scandinavian and European blocking regimes, inducing hot extremes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Duncan Pappert, Alexandre Tuel, Dim Coumou, Mathieu Vrac, and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 769–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-769-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-769-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study compares the dynamical structures that characterise long-lasting (persistent) and short hot spells in Western Europe. We find differences in large-scale atmospheric flow patterns during the events and particular soil moisture evolutions, which can account for the variation in event duration. There is variability in how drivers combine in individual events. Understanding persistent heat extremes can help improve their representation in models and ultimately their prediction.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
George Pacey, Stephan Pfahl, and Lisa Schielicke
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 695–713, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-695-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-695-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Cold fronts are often associated with areas of intense precipitation (cells) in the warm season, but the drivers and environments of cells at different locations relative to the front are not well-understood. We show that cells ahead of the surface front have the highest amount of environmental instability and moisture. Also, low-level lifting is maximised ahead of the surface front and upper-level lifting is particularly important for cell initiation behind the front.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Hugo Banderier, Alexandre Tuel, Tim Woollings, and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 715–739, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-715-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-715-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The jet stream is the main feature of upper-level flow and drives the weather at the surface. It is stronger and better defined in winter and has mostly been studied in that season. However, it is very important for (extreme) weather in summer. In this work, we improve and use two existing and complementary methods to study the jet stream(s) in the Euro-Atlantic sector, with a focus on summer. We find that our methods can verify each other and agree on interesting signals and trends.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Monika Feldmann, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and Olivia Martius
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2296, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2296, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Severe thunderstorm outbreaks are a source of major damage across Europe. Using historical data, we analysed the large-scale weather patterns that lead to these outbreaks in eight different regions. Three types of regions emerge: those limited by temperature, limited by moisture and overall favourable for thunderstorms; consistent with their associated weather patterns and the general climate. These findings help explain regional differences and provide a basis for future forecast improvements.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Patricia Coll-Hidalgo, Raquel Nieto, Alexandre Ramos, Patrick Ludwig, and Luis Gimeno
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1775, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1775, 2025
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses Lagrangian moisture tracking and high-resolution weather simulations to trace moisture sources for Storm Ianos (Sept 2020). The analysis identified the Ionian Basin and southwestern Balkans as the primary sources, with secondary contributions from the surrounding seas. Large transport moisture traveled via three main pathways, with the Marmara-Black Sea route most significant. For record-breaking rainfall local evaporation over Greece and the Ionian Sea dominated moisture uptake.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Edgar Dolores-Tesillos, Olivia Martius, and Julian Quinting
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 471–487, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-471-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-471-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
An accurate representation of synoptic weather systems in climate models is required to estimate their societal and economic impacts under climate warming. Current climate models poorly represent the frequency of atmospheric blocking. Few studies have analysed the role of moist processes as a source of the bias of blocks. Here, we implement ELIAS2.0, a deep-learning tool, to validate the representation of moist processes in CMIP6 models and their link to the Euro-Atlantic blocking biases.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Markus Mosimann, Martina Kauzlaric, Olivia Martius, and Andreas Paul Zischg
Abstr. Int. Cartogr. Assoc., 9, 26, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-9-26-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-9-26-2025, 2025
Henry Schoeller, Robin Chemnitz, Péter Koltai, Maximilian Engel, and Stephan Pfahl
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 32, 51–73, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-51-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-51-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We identify spatially coherent air streams into atmospheric blockings, which are important weather phenomena. By adapting mathematical methods to the atmosphere, we confirm previous findings. Our work shows that spatially coherent air streams featuring cloud formation correlate with strengthening of the blocking. The developed framework also allows for statements about the spatial behavior of the air parcels as a whole and indicates that blockings reduce the dispersion of the air parcels.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Hans Segura, Xabier Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia, Philipp Weiss, Sebastian K. Müller, Thomas Rackow, Junhong Lee, Edgar Dolores-Tesillos, Imme Benedict, Matthias Aengenheyster, Razvan Aguridan, Gabriele Arduini, Alexander J. Baker, Jiawei Bao, Swantje Bastin, Eulàlia Baulenas, Tobias Becker, Sebastian Beyer, Hendryk Bockelmann, Nils Brüggemann, Lukas Brunner, Suvarchal K. Cheedela, Sushant Das, Jasper Denissen, Ian Dragaud, Piotr Dziekan, Madeleine Ekblom, Jan Frederik Engels, Monika Esch, Richard Forbes, Claudia Frauen, Lilli Freischem, Diego García-Maroto, Philipp Geier, Paul Gierz, Álvaro González-Cervera, Katherine Grayson, Matthew Griffith, Oliver Gutjahr, Helmuth Haak, Ioan Hadade, Kerstin Haslehner, Shabeh ul Hasson, Jan Hegewald, Lukas Kluft, Aleksei Koldunov, Nikolay Koldunov, Tobias Kölling, Shunya Koseki, Sergey Kosukhin, Josh Kousal, Peter Kuma, Arjun U. Kumar, Rumeng Li, Nicolas Maury, Maximilian Meindl, Sebastian Milinski, Kristian Mogensen, Bimochan Niraula, Jakub Nowak, Divya Sri Praturi, Ulrike Proske, Dian Putrasahan, René Redler, David Santuy, Domokos Sármány, Reiner Schnur, Patrick Scholz, Dmitry Sidorenko, Dorian Spät, Birgit Sützl, Daisuke Takasuka, Adrian Tompkins, Alejandro Uribe, Mirco Valentini, Menno Veerman, Aiko Voigt, Sarah Warnau, Fabian Wachsmann, Marta Wacławczyk, Nils Wedi, Karl-Hermann Wieners, Jonathan Wille, Marius Winkler, Yuting Wu, Florian Ziemen, Janos Zimmermann, Frida A.-M. Bender, Dragana Bojovic, Sandrine Bony, Simona Bordoni, Patrice Brehmer, Marcus Dengler, Emanuel Dutra, Saliou Faye, Erich Fischer, Chiel van Heerwaarden, Cathy Hohenegger, Heikki Järvinen, Markus Jochum, Thomas Jung, Johann H. Jungclaus, Noel S. Keenlyside, Daniel Klocke, Heike Konow, Martina Klose, Szymon Malinowski, Olivia Martius, Thorsten Mauritsen, Juan Pedro Mellado, Theresa Mieslinger, Elsa Mohino, Hanna Pawłowska, Karsten Peters-von Gehlen, Abdoulaye Sarré, Pajam Sobhani, Philip Stier, Lauri Tuppi, Pier Luigi Vidale, Irina Sandu, and Bjorn Stevens
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-509, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-509, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The nextGEMS project developed two Earth system models that resolve processes of the order of 10 km, giving more fidelity to the representation of local phenomena, globally. In its fourth cycle, nextGEMS performed simulations with coupled ocean, land, and atmosphere over the 2020–2049 period under the SSP3-7.0 scenario. Here, we provide an overview of nextGEMS, insights into the model development, and the realism of multi-decadal, kilometer-scale simulations.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Tiago M. Ferreira, Ricardo M. Trigo, Tomás H. Gaspar, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Alexandre M. Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 609–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the synoptic evolution associated with the occurrence of an atmospheric river that led to a 24 h record-breaking extreme precipitation event (120.3 mm) in Lisbon, Portugal, on 13 December 2022. The synoptic background allowed the formation, on 10 December, of an atmospheric river associated with a deep extratropical cyclone and with a high moisture content and an inflow of moisture, due to the warm conveyor belt, throughout its life cycle. The system made landfall on 12 December.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Elena Xoplaki, Florian Ellsäßer, Jens Grieger, Katrin M. Nissen, Joaquim G. Pinto, Markus Augenstein, Ting-Chen Chen, Hendrik Feldmann, Petra Friederichs, Daniel Gliksman, Laura Goulier, Karsten Haustein, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Florian Knutzen, Stefan Kollet, Jürg Luterbacher, Niklas Luther, Susanna Mohr, Christoph Mudersbach, Christoph Müller, Efi Rousi, Felix Simon, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Svenja Szemkus, Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Odysseas Vlachopoulos, and Frederik Wolf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 541–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Europe frequently experiences compound events, with major impacts. We investigate these events’ interactions, characteristics, and changes over time, focusing on socio-economic impacts in Germany and central Europe. Highlighting 2018’s extreme events, this study reveals impacts on water, agriculture, and forests and stresses the need for impact-focused definitions and better future risk quantification to support adaptation planning.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Tatiana Klimiuk, Patrick Ludwig, Antonio Sanchez-Benitez, Helge F. Goessling, Peter Braesicke, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 239–255, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-239-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-239-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study examines potential changes in heatwaves in central Europe due to global warming, using the 2019 summer heatwave as an example. By producing high-resolution storylines, we provide insights into how future heatwaves might spread, how they might persist for longer, and where stronger or weaker temperature increases may occur. This research helps us understand regional thermodynamic responses and highlights the importance of local strategies to protect communities from future heat events.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Florian Knutzen, Paul Averbeck, Caterina Barrasso, Laurens M. Bouwer, Barry Gardiner, José M. Grünzweig, Sabine Hänel, Karsten Haustein, Marius Rohde Johannessen, Stefan Kollet, Mortimer M. Müller, Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Karolina Pietras-Couffignal, Joaquim G. Pinto, Diana Rechid, Efi Rousi, Ana Russo, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Sarah Veit, Julian Wendler, Elena Xoplaki, and Daniel Gliksman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 77–117, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research, involving 22 European scientists, investigated drought and heat impacts on forests in 2018–2022. Findings reveal that climate extremes are intensifying, with central Europe being most severely impacted. The southern region showed resilience due to historical drought exposure, while northern and Alpine areas experienced emerging or minimal impacts. The study highlights the need for region-specific strategies, improved data collection, and sustainable practices to safeguard forests.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Kalpana Hamal and Stephan Pfahl
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3732, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3732, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the global drivers of sudden temperature changes from one day to the next using observational data and trajectory analysis. In extratropical regions, these shifts are mainly driven by air mass movements linked to circulation patterns. In tropical areas, local factors like cloud cover play a key role. Understanding these mechanisms improves predictions of extreme temperature events, aiding in better preparation and mitigation strategies.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Lena Wilhelm, Cornelia Schwierz, Katharina Schröer, Mateusz Taszarek, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3869–3894, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In our study we used statistical models to reconstruct past hail days in Switzerland from 1959–2022. This new time series reveals a significant increase in hail day occurrences over the last 7 decades. We link this trend to increases in moisture and instability variables in the models. This time series can now be used to unravel the complexities of Swiss hail occurrence and to understand what drives its year-to-year variability.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Henrik Auestad, Clemens Spensberger, Andrea Marcheggiani, Paulo Ceppi, Thomas Spengler, and Tim Woollings
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1269–1286, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1269-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1269-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Latent heating due to condensation can influence atmospheric circulation by strengthening or weakening horizontal temperature contrasts. Strong temperature contrasts intensify storms and imply the existence of strong upper tropospheric winds called jets. It remains unclear whether latent heating preferentially reinforces or abates the existing jet. We show that this disagreement is attributable to how the jet is defined, confirming that latent heating reinforces the jet.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Julia Moemken, Inovasita Alifdini, Alexandre M. Ramos, Alexandros Georgiadis, Aidan Brocklehurst, Lukas Braun, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3445–3460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
European windstorms regularly cause damage to natural and human-made environments, leading to high socio-economic losses. For the first time, we compare estimates of these losses using a meteorological loss index (LI) and the insurance loss (catastrophe) model of Aon Impact Forecasting. We find that LI underestimates high-impact windstorms compared to the insurance model. Nonetheless, due to its simplicity, LI is an effective index, suitable for estimating impacts and ranking storm events.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Clare Marie Flynn, Julia Moemken, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-298, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-298, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
We created a new, publicly available database of the Top 50 most extreme European winter windstorms from each of four different meteorological input data sets covering the years 1995–2015. We found variability in all aspects of our database, from which storms were included in the Top 50 storms for each input to their spatial variability. We urge users of our database to consider the storms as identified from two or more input sources within our database, where possible.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Selina M. Kiefer, Patrick Ludwig, Sebastian Lerch, Peter Knippertz, and Joaquim G. Pinto
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2955, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2955, 2024
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Weather forecasts 14 days in advance generally have a low skill but not always. We identify reasons thereof depending on the atmospheric flow, shown by Weather Regimes (WRs). If the WRs during the forecasts follow climatological patterns, forecast skill is increased. The forecast of a cold-wave day is better when the European Blocking WR (high pressure around the British Isles) is present a few days before a cold-wave day. These results can be used to assess the reliability of predictions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Gabriele Messori, Antonio Segalini, and Alexandre M. Ramos
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1207–1225, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1207-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1207-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Simultaneous heatwaves or cold spells in remote geographical regions have potentially far-reaching impacts on society and the environment. Despite this, we have little knowledge of when and where these extreme events have occurred in the past decades. In this paper, we present a summary of past simultaneous heatwaves or cold spells and provide a computer program to enable other researchers to study them.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Raphaël Rousseau-Rizzi, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Jennifer L. Catto, Alice Portal, Yonatan Givon, and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1079–1101, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We identify situations when rain and wind, rain and wave, or heat and dust hazards co-occur within Mediterranean cyclones. These hazard combinations are associated with risk to infrastructure, risk of coastal flooding and risk of respiratory issues. The presence of Mediterranean cyclones is associated with increased probability of all three hazard combinations. We identify weather configurations and cyclone structures, particularly those associated with specific co-occurrence combinations.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2939–2952, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
High-impact river floods are often caused by extreme precipitation. Flood protection relies on reliable estimates of the return values. Observational time series are too short for a precise calculation. Here, 100-year return values of daily precipitation are estimated on a global grid based on a large set of model-generated precipitation events from ensemble weather prediction. The statistical uncertainties in the return values can be substantially reduced compared to observational estimates.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alice Portal, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Jennifer L. Catto, Yonatan Givon, and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1043–1060, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1043-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1043-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mediterranean cyclones are associated with extended rain, wind, and wave impacts. Although beneficial for regional water resources, their passage may induce extreme weather, which is especially impactful when multiple hazards combine together. Here we show how the passage of Mediterranean cyclones increases the likelihood of rain–wind and wave–wind compounding and how compound–cyclone statistics vary by region and season, depending on the presence of specific airflows around the cyclone.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Andrea L. Campoverde, Uwe Ehret, Patrick Ludwig, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-134, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-134, 2024
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
We looked at how well the model WRF-Hydro performed during the 2018 drought event in the River Rhine basin, even though it is typically used for floods. We used the meteorological ERA5 reanalysis dataset to simulate River Rhine’s streamflow and adjusted the model using parameters and actual discharge measurements. We focused on Lake Constance, a key part of the basin, but found issues with the model’s lake outflow simulation. By removing the lake module, we obtained more accurate results.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Fabiola Banfi, Emanuele Bevacqua, Pauline Rivoire, Sérgio C. Oliveira, Joaquim G. Pinto, Alexandre M. Ramos, and Carlo De Michele
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2689–2704, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2689-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides are complex phenomena causing important impacts in vulnerable areas, and they are often triggered by rainfall. Here, we develop a new approach that uses information on the temporal clustering of rainfall, i.e. multiple events close in time, to detect landslide events and compare it with the use of classical empirical rainfall thresholds, considering as a case study the region of Lisbon, Portugal. The results could help to improve the prediction of rainfall-triggered landslides.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jérôme Kopp, Alessandro Hering, Urs Germann, and Olivia Martius
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 4529–4552, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-4529-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-4529-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a verification of two products based on weather radars to detect the presence of hail and estimate its size. Radar products are remote detection of hail, so they must be verified against ground-based observations. We use reports from users of the Swiss Weather Services phone app to do the verification. We found that the product estimating the presence of hail provides fair results but that it should be recalibrated and that estimating the hail size with radar is more challenging.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Aleksa Stanković, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Rodrigo Caballero
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 821–837, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The article studies extreme winds near the surface over the North Atlantic Ocean. These winds are caused by storms that pass through this region. The strongest storms that have occurred in the winters from 1950–2020 are studied in detail and compared to weaker but still strong storms. The analysis shows that the storms associated with the strongest winds are preceded by another older storm that travelled through the same region and made the conditions suitable for development of extreme winds.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Christoph Nathanael von Matt, Regula Muelchi, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1975–2001, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1975-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1975-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The simultaneous occurrence of meteorological (precipitation), agricultural (soil moisture), and hydrological (streamflow) drought can lead to augmented impacts. By analysing drought indices derived from the newest climate scenarios for Switzerland (CH2018, Hydro-CH2018), we show that with climate change the concurrence of all drought types will increase in all studied regions of Switzerland. Our results stress the benefits of and need for both mitigation and adaptation measures at early stages.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alexandre Tuel and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 263–292, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-263-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Warm and cold spells often have damaging consequences for agriculture, power demand, human health and infrastructure, especially when they occur over large areas and persist for a week or more. Here, we split the Northern Hemisphere extratropics into coherent regions where 3-week warm and cold spells in winter and summer are associated with the same large-scale circulation patterns. To understand their physical drivers, we analyse the associated circulation and temperature budget anomalies.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Diego Fernández-Nóvoa, Alexandre M. Ramos, José González-Cao, Orlando García-Feal, Cristina Catita, Moncho Gómez-Gesteira, and Ricardo M. Trigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 609–630, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-609-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-609-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The present study focuses on an in-depth analysis of floods in the lower section of the Tagus River from a hydrodynamic perspective by means of the Iber+ numerical model and on the development of dam operating strategies to mitigate flood episodes using the exceptional floods of February 1979 as a benchmark. The results corroborate the model's capability to evaluate floods in the study area and confirm the effectiveness of the proposed strategies to reduce flood impact in the lower Tagus valley.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Marcus Breil, Vanessa K. M. Schneider, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Biogeosciences, 21, 811–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-811-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-811-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The general impact of afforestation on the regional climate conditions in Europe during the period 1986–2015 is investigated. For this purpose, a regional climate model simulation is performed, in which afforestation during this period is considered, and results are compared to a simulation in which this is not the case. Results show that afforestation had discernible impacts on the climate change signal in Europe, which may have mitigated the local warming trend, especially in summer in Europe.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Edgar Dolores-Tesillos and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 163–179, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-163-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In a warmer climate, the winter extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic basin are expected to have a larger footprint of strong winds. Dynamical changes at different altitudes are responsible for these wind changes. Based on backward trajectories using the CESM-LE simulations, we show that the diabatic processes gain relevance as the planet warms. For instance, changes in the radiative processes will play an important role in the upper-level cyclone dynamics.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Julian F. Quinting, Christian M. Grams, Edmund Kar-Man Chang, Stephan Pfahl, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 65–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-65-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-65-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Research in the last few decades has revealed that rapidly ascending airstreams in extratropical cyclones have an important effect on the evolution of downstream weather and predictability. In this study, we show that the occurrence of these airstreams over the North Pacific is modulated by tropical convection. Depending on the modulation, known atmospheric circulation patterns evolve quite differently, which may affect extended-range predictions in the Atlantic–European region.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
George Pacey, Stephan Pfahl, Lisa Schielicke, and Kathrin Wapler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3703–3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3703-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3703-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Cold fronts are often associated with areas of intense precipitation (cells) and sometimes with hazards such as flooding, hail and lightning. We find that cold-frontal cell days are associated with higher cell frequency and cells are typically more intense. We also show both spatially and temporally where cells are most frequent depending on their cell-front distance. These results are an important step towards a deeper understanding of cold-frontal storm climatology and improved forecasting.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Leonie Villiger, Marina Dütsch, Sandrine Bony, Marie Lothon, Stephan Pfahl, Heini Wernli, Pierre-Etienne Brilouet, Patrick Chazette, Pierre Coutris, Julien Delanoë, Cyrille Flamant, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Martin Werner, and Franziska Aemisegger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14643–14672, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14643-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates three numerical simulations performed with an isotope-enabled weather forecast model and investigates the coupling between shallow trade-wind cumulus clouds and atmospheric circulations on different scales. We show that the simulations reproduce key characteristics of shallow trade-wind clouds as observed during the field experiment EUREC4A and that the spatial distribution of stable-water-vapour isotopes is shaped by the overturning circulation associated with these clouds.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Lea Eisenstein, Benedikt Schulz, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Peter Knippertz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 981–999, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-981-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-981-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mesoscale high-wind features within extratropical cyclones can cause immense damage. In Part 1 of this work, we introduced RAMEFI (RAndom-forest-based MEsoscale wind Feature Identification), an objective, flexible identification tool for these wind features based on a probabilistic random forest. Here, we use RAMEFI to compile a climatology of the features over 19 extended winter seasons over western and central Europe, focusing on relative occurrence, affected areas and further characteristics.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Kristian Strommen, Tim Woollings, Paolo Davini, Paolo Ruggieri, and Isla R. Simpson
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 853–874, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-853-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-853-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present evidence which strongly suggests that decadal variations in the intensity of the North Atlantic winter jet stream can be predicted by current forecast models but that decadal variations in its position appear to be unpredictable. It is argued that this skill at predicting jet intensity originates from the slow, predictable variability in sea surface temperatures in the sub-polar North Atlantic.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alexandre Tuel and Olivia Martius
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 955–987, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-955-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-955-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Weather persistence on sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales has been a topic of research since the early days of meteorology. Stationary or recurrent behavior are common features of weather dynamics and are strongly related to fundamental physical processes, weather predictability and surface weather impacts. In this review, we propose a typology for the broad concepts related to persistence and discuss various methods that have been used to characterize persistence in weather data.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Marie Hundhausen, Hendrik Feldmann, Natalie Laube, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2873–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using a convection-permitting regional climate ensemble, the magnitude of heat waves (HWs) over Germany is projected to increase by 26 % (100 %) in a 2 °C (3 °C) warmer world. The increase is strongest in late summer, relatively homogeneous in space, and accompanied by increasing variance in HW length. Tailored parameters to climate adaptation to heat revealed dependency on major landscapes, and a nonlinear, exponential increase for parameters characterizing strong heat stress is expected.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Pauline Rivoire, Olivia Martius, Philippe Naveau, and Alexandre Tuel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2857–2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation can lead to floods and landslides, resulting in widespread damage and significant casualties. Some of its impacts can be mitigated if reliable forecasts and warnings are available. In this article, we assess the capacity of the precipitation forecast provided by ECMWF to predict heavy precipitation events on a subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale over Europe. We find that the forecast skill of such events is generally higher in winter than in summer.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jérôme Kopp, Agostino Manzato, Alessandro Hering, Urs Germann, and Olivia Martius
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 3487–3503, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-3487-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-3487-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present the first study of extended field observations made by a network of 80 automatic hail sensors from Switzerland. The sensors record the exact timing of hailstone impacts, providing valuable information about the local duration of hailfall. We found that the majority of hailfalls lasts just a few minutes and that most hailstones, including the largest, fall during a first phase of high hailstone density, while a few remaining and smaller hailstones fall in a second low-density phase.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, Hendrik Feldmann, Etor Lucio-Eceiza, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 543–565, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-543-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-543-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate convection-permitting modelling (CPM) simulations for the greater Alpine area to assess its added value compared to a 25 km resolution. A new method for severe precipitation detection is used, and the associated synoptic weather types are considered. Our results document the added value of CPM for precipitation representation with higher intensities, better rank correlation, better hit rates, and an improved amount and structure, but with an overestimation of the rates.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Marcus Breil, Annabell Weber, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Biogeosciences, 20, 2237–2250, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2237-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2237-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A promising strategy for mitigating burdens of heat extremes in Europe is to replace dark coniferous forests with brighter deciduous forests. The consequence of this would be reduced absorption of solar radiation, which should reduce the intensities of heat periods. In this study, we show that deciduous forests have a certain cooling effect on heat period intensities in Europe. However, the magnitude of the temperature reduction is quite small.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Daniel Gliksman, Paul Averbeck, Nico Becker, Barry Gardiner, Valeri Goldberg, Jens Grieger, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Alexia Karwat, Florian Knutzen, Hilke S. Lentink, Rike Lorenz, Deborah Niermann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Ronald Queck, Astrid Ziemann, and Christian L. E. Franzke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2171–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Wind and storms are a major natural hazard and can cause severe economic damage and cost human lives. Hence, it is important to gauge the potential impact of using indices, which potentially enable us to estimate likely impacts of storms or other wind events. Here, we review basic aspects of wind and storm generation and provide an extensive overview of wind impacts and available indices. This is also important to better prepare for future climate change and corresponding changes to winds.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 427–447, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-427-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-427-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we analyse the generic atmospheric processes of very extreme, 100-year precipitation events in large central European river catchments and the corresponding differences to less extreme events, based on a large time series (~1200 years) of simulated but realistic daily precipitation events from the ECMWF. Depending on the catchment, either dynamical mechanisms or thermodynamic conditions or a combination of both distinguish 100-year events from less extreme precipitation events.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Efi Rousi, Andreas H. Fink, Lauren S. Andersen, Florian N. Becker, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga, Marcus Breil, Giacomo Cozzi, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Deborah Niermann, Dragan Petrovic, Andy Richling, Johannes Riebold, Stella Steidl, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Dim Coumou, André Düsterhus, Florian Ellsäßer, Georgios Fragkoulidis, Daniel Gliksman, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Kai Kornhuber, Harald Kunstmann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Elena Xoplaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1699–1718, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this study was to perform a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of the 2018 extreme summer in terms of heat and drought in central and northern Europe, with a particular focus on Germany. A combination of favorable large-scale conditions and locally dry soils were related with the intensity and persistence of the events. We also showed that such extremes have become more likely due to anthropogenic climate change and might occur almost every year under +2 °C of global warming.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Charles G. Gertler, Paul A. O'Gorman, and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 361–379, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-361-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-361-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The relationship between the time-mean state of the atmosphere and aspects of atmospheric circulation drives general understanding of the atmospheric circulation. Here, we present new techniques to calculate local properties of the time-mean atmosphere and relate those properties to aspects of extratropical circulation with important implications for weather. This relationship should help connect changes to the atmosphere, such as under global warming, to changes in midlatitude weather.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Patrick Ludwig, Florian Ehmele, Mário J. Franca, Susanna Mohr, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Uwe Ehret, Hendrik Feldmann, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Michael Kunz, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1287–1311, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation in July 2021 led to widespread floods in western Germany and neighboring countries. The event was among the five heaviest precipitation events of the past 70 years in Germany, and the river discharges exceeded by far the statistical 100-year return values. Simulations of the event under future climate conditions revealed a strong and non-linear effect on flood peaks: for +2 K global warming, an 18 % increase in rainfall led to a 39 % increase of the flood peak in the Ahr river.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Marcus Breil, Felix Krawczyk, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 243–253, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-243-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-243-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We provide evidence that biogeophysical effects of afforestation can counteract the favorable biogeochemical climate effect of reduced CO2 concentrations. By changing the land surface characteristics, afforestation reduces vegetation surface temperatures, resulting in a reduced outgoing longwave radiation in summer, although CO2 concentrations are reduced. Since forests additionally absorb a lot of solar radiation due to their dark surfaces, afforestation has a total warming effect.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Susanna Mohr, Uwe Ehret, Michael Kunz, Patrick Ludwig, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Florian Ehmele, Hendrik Feldmann, Mário J. Franca, Christian Gattke, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Marc Scheibel, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 525–551, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The flood event in July 2021 was one of the most severe disasters in Europe in the last half century. The objective of this two-part study is a multi-disciplinary assessment that examines the complex process interactions in different compartments, from meteorology to hydrological conditions to hydro-morphological processes to impacts on assets and environment. In addition, we address the question of what measures are possible to generate added value to early response management.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Stephen Outten, Camille Li, Martin P. King, Lingling Suo, Peter Y. F. Siew, Hoffman Cheung, Richard Davy, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Tore Furevik, Shengping He, Erica Madonna, Stefan Sobolowski, Thomas Spengler, and Tim Woollings
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 95–114, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-95-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-95-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Strong disagreement exists in the scientific community over the role of Arctic sea ice in shaping wintertime Eurasian cooling. The observed Eurasian cooling can arise naturally without sea-ice loss but is expected to be a rare event. We propose a framework that incorporates sea-ice retreat and natural variability as contributing factors. A helpful analogy is of a dice roll that may result in cooling, warming, or anything in between, with sea-ice loss acting to load the dice in favour of cooling.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Tim Woollings, Camille Li, Marie Drouard, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Karim A. Elmestekawy, Momme Hell, Brian Hoskins, Cheikh Mbengue, Matthew Patterson, and Thomas Spengler
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 61–80, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-61-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-61-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper investigates large-scale atmospheric variability in polar regions, specifically the balance between large-scale turbulence and Rossby wave activity. The polar regions are relatively more dominated by turbulence than lower latitudes, but Rossby waves are found to play a role and can even be triggered from high latitudes under certain conditions. Features such as cyclone lifetimes, high-latitude blocks, and annular modes are discussed from this perspective.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Lisa Schielicke and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1439–1459, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1439-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1439-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Projected future heatwaves in many European regions will be even warmer than the mean increase in summer temperature suggests. To identify the underlying thermodynamic and dynamic processes, we compare Lagrangian backward trajectories of airstreams associated with heatwaves in two time slices (1991–2000 and 2091–2100) in a large single-model ensemble (CEMS-LE). We find stronger future descent associated with adiabatic warming in some regions and increased future diabatic heating in most regions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, Markus Augenstein, Georgy Ayzel, Klemens Barfus, Ribu Cherian, Lisa Dillenardt, Felix Fauer, Hendrik Feldmann, Maik Heistermann, Alexia Karwat, Frank Kaspar, Heidi Kreibich, Etor Emanuel Lucio-Eceiza, Edmund P. Meredith, Susanna Mohr, Deborah Niermann, Stephan Pfahl, Florian Ruff, Henning W. Rust, Lukas Schoppa, Thomas Schwitalla, Stella Steidl, Annegret H. Thieken, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Johannes Quaas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3701–3724, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In a warming climate, extreme precipitation events are becoming more frequent. To advance our knowledge on such phenomena, we present a multidisciplinary analysis of a selected case study that took place on 29 June 2017 in the Berlin metropolitan area. Our analysis provides evidence of the extremeness of the case from the atmospheric and the impacts perspectives as well as new insights on the physical mechanisms of the event at the meteorological and climate scales.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
S. Mubashshir Ali, Matthias Röthlisberger, Tess Parker, Kai Kornhuber, and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1139–1156, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1139-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1139-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Persistent weather can lead to extreme weather conditions. One such atmospheric flow pattern, termed recurrent Rossby wave packets (RRWPs), has been shown to increase persistent weather in the Northern Hemisphere. Here, we show that RRWPs are also an important feature in the Southern Hemisphere. We evaluate the role of RRWPs during south-eastern Australian heatwaves and find that they help to persist the heatwaves by forming upper-level high-pressure systems over south-eastern Australia.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Lea Eisenstein, Benedikt Schulz, Ghulam A. Qadir, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Peter Knippertz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1157–1182, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1157-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1157-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Mesoscale high-wind features within extratropical cyclones can cause immense damage. Here, we present RAMEFI, a novel approach to objectively identify the wind features based on a probabilistic random forest. RAMEFI enables a wide range of applications such as probabilistic predictions for the occurrence or a multi-decadal climatology of these features, which will be the focus of Part 2 of the study, with the goal of improving wind and, specifically, wind gust forecasts in the long run.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Kathrin Wehrli, Fei Luo, Mathias Hauser, Hideo Shiogama, Daisuke Tokuda, Hyungjun Kim, Dim Coumou, Wilhelm May, Philippe Le Sager, Frank Selten, Olivia Martius, Robert Vautard, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1167–1196, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1167-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1167-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The ExtremeX experiment was designed to unravel the contribution of processes leading to the occurrence of recent weather and climate extremes. Global climate simulations are carried out with three models. The results show that in constrained experiments, temperature anomalies during heatwaves are well represented, although climatological model biases remain. Further, a substantial contribution of both atmospheric circulation and soil moisture to heat extremes is identified.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Andries Jan de Vries, Franziska Aemisegger, Stephan Pfahl, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 8863–8895, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8863-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8863-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Earth's water cycle contains the common H2O molecule but also the less abundant, heavier HDO. We use their different physical properties to study tropical ice clouds in model simulations of the West African monsoon. Isotope signals reveal different processes through which ice clouds form and decay in deep-convective and widespread cirrus. Previously observed variations in upper-tropospheric vapour isotopes are explained by microphysical processes in convective updraughts and downdraughts.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alexandre Tuel, Bettina Schaefli, Jakob Zscheischler, and Olivia Martius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2649–2669, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2649-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2649-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
River discharge is strongly influenced by the temporal structure of precipitation. Here, we show how extreme precipitation events that occur a few days or weeks after a previous event have a larger effect on river discharge than events occurring in isolation. Windows of 2 weeks or less between events have the most impact. Similarly, periods of persistent high discharge tend to be associated with the occurrence of several extreme precipitation events in close succession.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Assaf Hochman, Francesco Marra, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Yizhak Yosef, and Georgios Zittis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 749–777, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Gaining a complete understanding of extreme weather, from its physical drivers to its impacts on society, is important in supporting future risk reduction and adaptation measures. Here, we provide a review of the available scientific literature, knowledge gaps and key open questions in the study of extreme weather events over the vulnerable eastern Mediterranean region.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Daniel Steinfeld, Adrian Peter, Olivia Martius, and Stefan Brönnimann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-92, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-92, 2022
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the performance of various fire weather indices to predict wildfire occurrence in Northern Switzerland. We find that indices responding readily to weather changes have the best performance during spring; in the summer and autumn seasons, indices that describe persistent hot and dry conditions perform best. We demonstrate that a logistic regression model trained on local historical fire activity can outperform existing fire weather indices.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Edgar Dolores-Tesillos, Franziska Teubler, and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 429–448, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-429-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-429-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Strong winds caused by extratropical cyclones represent a costly hazard for European countries. Here, based on CESM-LENS coupled climate simulations, we show that future changes of such strong winds are characterized by an increased magnitude and extended footprint southeast of the cyclone center. This intensification is related to a combination of increased diabatic heating and changes in upper-level wave dynamics.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Animesh K. Gain, Yves Bühler, Pascal Haegeli, Daniela Molinari, Mario Parise, David J. Peres, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kai Schröter, Ricardo M. Trigo, María Carmen Llasat, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 985–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To mark the 20th anniversary of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS), an interdisciplinary and international journal dedicated to the public discussion and open-access publication of high-quality studies and original research on natural hazards and their consequences, we highlight 11 key publications covering major subject areas of NHESS that stood out within the past 20 years.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Florian Ehmele, Lisa-Ann Kautz, Hendrik Feldmann, Yi He, Martin Kadlec, Fanni D. Kelemen, Hilke S. Lentink, Patrick Ludwig, Desmond Manful, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 677–692, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-677-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-677-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
For various applications, it is crucial to have profound knowledge of the frequency, severity, and risk of extreme flood events. Such events are characterized by very long return periods which observations can not cover. We use a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations as input for a hydrological model. Precipitation data were post-processed to reduce systematic errors. The representation of precipitation and discharge is improved, and estimates of long return periods become robust.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Kim H. Stadelmaier, Patrick Ludwig, Pascal Bertran, Pierre Antoine, Xiaoxu Shi, Gerrit Lohmann, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Clim. Past, 17, 2559–2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2559-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2559-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use regional climate simulations for the Last Glacial Maximum to reconstruct permafrost and to identify areas of thermal contraction cracking of the ground in western Europe. We find ground cracking, a precondition for the development of permafrost proxies, south of the probable permafrost border, implying that permafrost was not the limiting factor for proxy development. A good agreement with permafrost and climate proxy data is achieved when easterly winds are modelled more frequently.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Hélène Barras, Olivia Martius, Luca Nisi, Katharina Schroeer, Alessandro Hering, and Urs Germann
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1167–1185, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1167-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1167-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In Switzerland hail may occur several days in a row. Such multi-day hail events may cause significant damage, and understanding and forecasting these events is important. Using reanalysis data we show that weather systems over Europe move slower before and during multi-day hail events compared to single hail days. Surface temperatures are typically warmer and the air more humid over Switzerland and winds are slower on multi-day hail clusters. These results may be used for hail forecasting.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Fabienne Dahinden, Franziska Aemisegger, Heini Wernli, Matthias Schneider, Christopher J. Diekmann, Benjamin Ertl, Peter Knippertz, Martin Werner, and Stephan Pfahl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16319–16347, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16319-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16319-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use high-resolution numerical isotope modelling and Lagrangian backward trajectories to identify moisture transport pathways and governing physical and dynamical processes that affect the free-tropospheric humidity and isotopic variability over the eastern subtropical North Atlantic. Furthermore, we conduct a thorough isotope modelling validation with aircraft and remote-sensing observations of water vapour isotopes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Timothy H. Raupach, Andrey Martynov, Luca Nisi, Alessandro Hering, Yannick Barton, and Olivia Martius
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6495–6514, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6495-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6495-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
When simulated thunderstorms are compared to observations or other simulations, a match between overall storm properties is often more important than exact matches to individual storms. We tested a comparison method that uses a thunderstorm tracking algorithm to characterise simulated storms. For May 2018 in Switzerland, the method produced reasonable matches to independent observations for most storm properties, showing its feasibility for summarising simulated storms over mountainous terrain.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Gerard van der Schrier, Richard P. Allan, Albert Ossó, Pedro M. Sousa, Hans Van de Vyver, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Roberto Coscarelli, Angela A. Pasqua, Olga Petrucci, Mary Curley, Mirosław Mietus, Janusz Filipiak, Petr Štěpánek, Pavel Zahradníček, Rudolf Brázdil, Ladislava Řezníčková, Else J. M. van den Besselaar, Ricardo Trigo, and Enric Aguilar
Clim. Past, 17, 2201–2221, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2201-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2201-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The 1921 drought was the most severe drought to hit Europe since the start of the 20th century. Here the climatological description of the drought is coupled to an overview of its impacts, sourced from newspapers, and an analysis of its drivers. The area from Ireland to the Ukraine was affected but hardest hit was the triangle between Brussels, Paris and Lyon. The drought impacts lingered on until well into autumn and winter, affecting water supply and agriculture and livestock farming.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alexandre Tuel and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2949–2972, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2949-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2949-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme river discharge may be triggered by large accumulations of precipitation over short time periods, which can result from the successive occurrence of extreme-precipitation events. We find a distinct spatiotemporal pattern in the temporal clustering behavior of precipitation extremes over Switzerland, with clustering occurring on the northern side of the Alps in winter and on their southern side in fall. Clusters tend to be followed by extreme discharge, particularly in the southern Alps.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jérôme Kopp, Pauline Rivoire, S. Mubashshir Ali, Yannick Barton, and Olivia Martius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5153–5174, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5153-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5153-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Episodes of extreme rainfall events happening in close temporal succession can lead to floods with dramatic impacts. We developed a novel method to individually identify those episodes and deduced the regions where they occur frequently and where their impact is substantial. Those regions are the east and northeast of the Asian continent, central Canada and the south of California, Afghanistan, Pakistan, the southwest of the Iberian Peninsula, and north of Argentina and south of Bolivia.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Zhihong Zhuo, Ingo Kirchner, Stephan Pfahl, and Ulrich Cubasch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13425–13442, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13425-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13425-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of volcanic eruptions varies with eruption season and latitude. This study simulated eruptions at different latitudes and in different seasons with a fully coupled climate model. The climate impacts of northern and southern hemispheric eruptions are reversed but are insensitive to eruption season. Results suggest that the regional climate impacts are due to the dynamical response of the climate system to radiative effects of volcanic aerosols and the subsequent regional feedbacks.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Regula Muelchi, Ole Rössler, Jan Schwanbeck, Rolf Weingartner, and Olivia Martius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3577–3594, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3577-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3577-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyses changes in magnitude, frequency, and seasonality of moderate low and high flows for 93 catchments in Switzerland. In lower-lying catchments (below 1500 m a.s.l.), moderate low-flow magnitude (frequency) will decrease (increase). In Alpine catchments (above 1500 m a.s.l.), moderate low-flow magnitude (frequency) will increase (decrease). Moderate high flows tend to occur more frequent, and their magnitude increases in most catchments except some Alpine catchments.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Regula Muelchi, Ole Rössler, Jan Schwanbeck, Rolf Weingartner, and Olivia Martius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3071–3086, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3071-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3071-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Runoff regimes in Switzerland will change significantly under climate change. Projected changes are strongly elevation dependent with earlier time of emergence and stronger changes in high-elevation catchments where snowmelt and glacier melt play an important role. The magnitude of change and the climate model agreement on the sign increase with increasing global mean temperatures and stronger emission scenarios. This amplification highlights the importance of climate change mitigation.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Margarida L. R. Liberato, Irene Montero, Célia Gouveia, Ana Russo, Alexandre M. Ramos, and Ricardo M. Trigo
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 197–210, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-197-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-197-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Extensive, long-standing dry and wet episodes are frequent climatic extreme events (EEs) in the Iberian Peninsula (IP). A method for ranking regional extremes of persistent, widespread drought and wet events is presented, using different SPEI timescales. Results show that there is no region more prone to EE occurrences in the IP, the most extreme extensive agricultural droughts evolve into hydrological and more persistent extreme droughts, and widespread wet and dry EEs are anti-correlated.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Assaf Hochman, Sebastian Scher, Julian Quinting, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 133–149, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Skillful forecasts of extreme weather events have a major socioeconomic relevance. Here, we compare two approaches to diagnose the predictability of eastern Mediterranean heat waves: one based on recent developments in dynamical systems theory and one leveraging numerical ensemble weather forecasts. We conclude that the former can be a useful and cost-efficient complement to conventional numerical forecasts for understanding the dynamics of eastern Mediterranean heat waves.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jakob Zscheischler, Philippe Naveau, Olivia Martius, Sebastian Engelke, and Christoph C. Raible
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Compound extremes such as heavy precipitation and extreme winds can lead to large damage. To date it is unclear how well climate models represent such compound extremes. Here we present a new measure to assess differences in the dependence structure of bivariate extremes. This measure is applied to assess differences in the dependence of compound precipitation and wind extremes between three model simulations and one reanalysis dataset in a domain in central Europe.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Daniel Steinfeld, Maxi Boettcher, Richard Forbes, and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 405–426, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-405-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-405-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of latent heating on atmospheric blocking is investigated using numerical sensitivity experiments. The modification of latent heating in the upstream cyclone has substantial effects on the upper-tropospheric circulation, demonstrating that some blocking systems do not develop at all without upstream latent heating. The results highlight the importance of moist-diabatic processes for the dynamics of prolonged anticyclonic circulation anomalies.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Florian Ehmele, Lisa-Ann Kautz, Hendrik Feldmann, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 469–490, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-469-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-469-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a large novel data set of climate model simulations for central Europe covering the years 1900–2028 at a 25 km resolution. The focus is on intensive areal precipitation values. The data set is validated against observations using different statistical approaches. The results reveal an adequate quality in a statistical sense as well as some long-term variability with phases of increased and decreased heavy precipitation. The predictions of the near future show continuity.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Christoph P. Gatzen, Andreas H. Fink, David M. Schultz, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1335–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1335-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1335-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Derechos are widespread, convectively induced severe wind events. A climatology of derechos in Germany is presented. It shows that derechos are not uncommon across the country. Two seasonal peaks indicate a comparable derecho risk in summer and winter. At the same time, we found two different derecho types, a warm- and a cold-season type. We present characteristics of both derecho types that can help forecasters to estimate the potential derecho threat in a given weather situation.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Iris Thurnherr, Anna Kozachek, Pascal Graf, Yongbiao Weng, Dimitri Bolshiyanov, Sebastian Landwehr, Stephan Pfahl, Julia Schmale, Harald Sodemann, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Alessandro Toffoli, Heini Wernli, and Franziska Aemisegger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 5811–5835, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5811-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5811-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Stable water isotopes (SWIs) are tracers of moist atmospheric processes. We analyse the impact of large- to small-scale atmospheric processes and various environmental conditions on the variability of SWIs using ship-based SWI measurement in water vapour from the Atlantic and Southern Ocean. Furthermore, simultaneous measurements of SWIs at two altitudes are used to illustrate the potential of such measurements for future research to estimate sea spray evaporation and turbulent moisture fluxes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Philipp Zschenderlein, Stephan Pfahl, Heini Wernli, and Andreas H. Fink
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 191–206, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-191-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-191-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the formation of upper-tropospheric anticyclones connected to European surface heat waves. Tracing air masses backwards from these anticyclones, we found that trajectories are diabatically heated in two branches, either by North Atlantic cyclones or by convection closer to the heat wave anticyclone. The first branch primarily affects the onset of the anticyclone, while the second branch is more relevant for the maintenance. Our results are relevant for heat wave predictions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Joaquim G. Pinto and Patrick Ludwig
Clim. Past, 16, 611–626, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-611-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-611-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The statistics and characteristics of cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe are analysed for Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate conditions. LGM extreme cyclones were more frequent and characterised by less precipitation and stronger wind speeds than pre-industrial analogues. These results agree with the view of a colder and drier Europe during LGM, with little vegetation and affected by frequent dust storms, leading to the buildup of thick loess deposits in Europe.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alexandre M. Ramos, Pedro M. Sousa, Emanuel Dutra, and Ricardo M. Trigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 877–888, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-877-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-877-2020, 2020
Mareike Schuster, Jens Grieger, Andy Richling, Thomas Schartner, Sebastian Illing, Christopher Kadow, Wolfgang A. Müller, Holger Pohlmann, Stephan Pfahl, and Uwe Ulbrich
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 901–917, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-901-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-901-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Decadal climate predictions are valuable to society as they allow us to estimate climate conditions several years in advance. We analyze the latest version of the German MiKlip prediction system (https://www.fona-miklip.de) and assess the effect of the model resolution on the skill of the system. The increase in the resolution of the system reduces the bias and significantly improves the forecast skill for North Atlantic extratropical winter dynamics for lead times of two to five winters.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Emmanuele Russo, Ingo Kirchner, Stephan Pfahl, Martijn Schaap, and Ulrich Cubasch
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 5229–5249, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5229-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5229-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This is an investigation of COSMO-CLM 5.0 sensitivity for the CORDEX Central Asia domain, with the main goal of evaluating general model performances for the area, proposing a model optimal configuration to be used in projection studies.
Results show that the model seems to be particularly sensitive to those parameterizations that deal with soil and surface features and that could positively affect the repartition of incoming radiation.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Keun-Ok Lee, Franziska Aemisegger, Stephan Pfahl, Cyrille Flamant, Jean-Lionel Lacour, and Jean-Pierre Chaboureau
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 7487–7506, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7487-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7487-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Our study is the first study to investigate the potential benefit of stable water isotopes (SWIs) in the context of a heavy precipitation event in the Mediterranean. As such, our study provides a proof of concept of the usefulness of SWI data to understand the variety of origins and moisture processes associated with air masses feeding the convection over southern Italy.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Bojan Škerlak, Stephan Pfahl, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 6535–6549, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6535-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6535-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Upper-level fronts are often associated with the rapid transport of stratospheric air to the lower troposphere, leading to significantly enhanced ozone concentrations. This paper considers the multi-scale nature that is needed to bring stratospheric air down to the surface. The final transport step to the surface can be related to frontal zones and the associated vertical winds or to near-horizontal tracer transport followed by entrainment into a growing planetary boundary layer.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Luca Mathias, Patrick Ludwig, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1023–1040, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1023-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1023-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Convective systems producing severe winds occasionally affect Europe during wintertime and the majority of these storms develop along well-defined cold fronts of extratropical cyclones. However, on 3 January 2014, a storm formed in a postfrontal air mass over western Europe. This study analyses the prevailing environmental conditions and the predictability of this storm. Our results reveal the difficulty of forecasting cold-season convective storms when they are not associated with a cold front.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Mark Reyers, Hendrik Feldmann, Sebastian Mieruch, Joaquim G. Pinto, Marianne Uhlig, Bodo Ahrens, Barbara Früh, Kameswarrao Modali, Natalie Laube, Julia Moemken, Wolfgang Müller, Gerd Schädler, and Christoph Kottmeier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 171–187, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-171-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-171-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, the regional MiKlip decadal prediction system is evaluated. This system has been established to deliver highly resolved forecasts for the timescale of 1 to 10 years for Europe. Evidence of the general potential for regional decadal predictability for the variables temperature, precipitation, and wind speed is provided, but the performance of the prediction system depends on region, variable, and system generation.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Lisa-Ann Kautz, Florian Ehmele, Patrick Ludwig, Hilke S. Lentink, Fanni D. Kelemen, Martin Kadlec, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-77, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-77, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
To quantify the flooding risk for Europe it is necessary to run hydrological models. As input for these models, a consistent stochastic precipitation dataset is needed. In the present study, a combined approach is presented on how to generate such a dataset based on dynamical downscaling and subsequent bias correction. Empirical quantile mapping was identified as suitable bias correction method as it led to improvements for specific severe river floods as well as in a climatological perspective.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Pascal Graf, Heini Wernli, Stephan Pfahl, and Harald Sodemann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 747–765, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-747-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-747-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This article studies the interaction between falling rain and vapour with stable water isotopes. In particular, rain evaporation is relevant for several atmospheric processes, but remains difficult to quantify. A novel framework is introduced to facilitate the interpretation of stable water isotope observations in near-surface vapour and rain. The usefulness of this concept is demonstrated using observations at high time resolution from a cold front. Sensitivities are tested with a simple model.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Johannes Eckstein, Roland Ruhnke, Stephan Pfahl, Emanuel Christner, Christopher Diekmann, Christoph Dyroff, Daniel Reinert, Daniel Rieger, Matthias Schneider, Jennifer Schröter, Andreas Zahn, and Peter Braesicke
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5113–5133, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5113-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5113-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We present ICON-ART-Iso, an extension to the global circulation model ICON, which allows for the simulation of the stable isotopologues of water. The main advantage over other isotope-enabled models is its flexible design with respect to the number of tracers simulated. We compare the results of several simulations to measurements of different scale. ICON-ART-Iso is able to reasonably reproduce the measurements. It is a promising tool to aid in the investigation of the atmospheric water cycle.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Matthew D. K. Priestley, Helen F. Dacre, Len C. Shaffrey, Kevin I. Hodges, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2991–3006, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2991-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2991-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the role of the clustering of extratropical cyclones in driving wintertime wind losses across a large European region. To do this over 900 years of climate model data have been used and analysed. The main conclusion of this work is that cyclone clustering acts to increase wind-driven losses in the winter by 10 %–20 % when compared to the losses from a random series of cyclones, with this specifically being for the higher loss years.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Peter Stucki, Moritz Bandhauer, Ulla Heikkilä, Ole Rössler, Massimiliano Zappa, Lucas Pfister, Melanie Salvisberg, Paul Froidevaux, Olivia Martius, Luca Panziera, and Stefan Brönnimann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2717–2739, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2717-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2717-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A catastrophic flood south of the Alps in 1868 is assessed using documents and the earliest example of high-resolution weather simulation. Simulated weather dynamics agree well with observations and damage reports. Simulated peak water levels are biased. Low forest cover did not cause the flood, but such a paradigm was used to justify afforestation. Supported by historical methods, such numerical simulations allow weather events from past centuries to be used for modern hazard and risk analyses.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Christine A. Shields, Jonathan J. Rutz, Lai-Yung Leung, F. Martin Ralph, Michael Wehner, Brian Kawzenuk, Juan M. Lora, Elizabeth McClenny, Tashiana Osborne, Ashley E. Payne, Paul Ullrich, Alexander Gershunov, Naomi Goldenson, Bin Guan, Yun Qian, Alexandre M. Ramos, Chandan Sarangi, Scott Sellars, Irina Gorodetskaya, Karthik Kashinath, Vitaliy Kurlin, Kelly Mahoney, Grzegorz Muszynski, Roger Pierce, Aneesh C. Subramanian, Ricardo Tome, Duane Waliser, Daniel Walton, Gary Wick, Anna Wilson, David Lavers, Prabhat, Allison Collow, Harinarayan Krishnan, Gudrun Magnusdottir, and Phu Nguyen
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2455–2474, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2455-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2455-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
ARTMIP (Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project) is a community effort with the explicit goal of understanding the uncertainties, and the implications of those uncertainties, in atmospheric river science solely due to detection algorithm. ARTMIP strives to quantify these differences and provide guidance on appropriate algorithmic choices for the science question posed. Project goals, experimental design, and preliminary results are provided.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Juan José Gómez-Navarro, Christoph C. Raible, Denica Bozhinova, Olivia Martius, Juan Andrés García Valero, and Juan Pedro Montávez
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2231–2247, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2231-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2231-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We carry out and compare two high-resolution simulations of the Alpine region in the period 1979–2005. We aim to improve the understanding of the local mechanisms leading to extreme events in this complex region. We compare both simulations to precipitation observations to assess the model performance, and attribute major biases to either model or boundary conditions. Further, we develop a new bias correction technique to remove systematic errors in simulated precipitation for impact studies.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Marina Dütsch, Stephan Pfahl, Miro Meyer, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 1653–1669, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1653-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1653-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric processes are imprinted in the concentrations of stable water isotopes. Therefore, isotopes can be used to gain insight into these processes and improve our understanding of the water cycle. In this study, we present a new method that quantitatively shows which atmospheric processes influence isotope concentrations in near-surface water vapour over Europe. We found that the most important processes are evaporation from the ocean, evapotranspiration from land, and turbulent mixing.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jorge Eiras-Barca, Alexandre M. Ramos, Joaquim G. Pinto, Ricardo M. Trigo, Margarida L. R. Liberato, and Gonzalo Miguez-Macho
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 91–102, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-91-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-91-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper analyses the potential role of atmospheric rivers in the explosive cyclone deepening. Using ERA-Interim reanalysis data for 1979–2011, we analyse the concurrence of atmospheric rivers and explosive cyclogenesis over the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins for the extended winter months (ONDJFM).
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Harald Sodemann, Franziska Aemisegger, Stephan Pfahl, Mark Bitter, Ulrich Corsmeier, Thomas Feuerle, Pascal Graf, Rolf Hankers, Gregor Hsiao, Helmut Schulz, Andreas Wieser, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6125–6151, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6125-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6125-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We report here the first survey of stable water isotope composition over the Mediterranean sea made from aircraft. The stable isotope composition of the atmospheric water vapour changed in response to evaporation conditions at the sea surface, elevation, and airmass transport history. Our data set will be valuable for testing how water is transported in weather prediction and climate models and for understanding processes in the Mediterranean water cycle.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Carlos Ordóñez, David Barriopedro, Ricardo García-Herrera, Pedro M. Sousa, and Jordan L. Schnell
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 3111–3131, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3111-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3111-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Blocks and ridges are synoptic patterns associated with an anticyclonic circulation. They also divert the atmospheric flow. This work proves that near-surface ozone in Europe is sensitive to these patterns. This quantitative assessment has been performed on a seasonal basis for a 15-year period. The results can be exploited in the future to evaluate modelled ozone responses to atmospheric circulation changes and to understand the contribution of dynamic effects to air quality projections.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alexandre M. Ramos, Raquel Nieto, Ricardo Tomé, Luis Gimeno, Ricardo M. Trigo, Margarida L. R. Liberato, and David A. Lavers
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 371–384, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-371-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-371-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
An atmospheric river (AR) detection algorithm is used for the North Atlantic Ocean basin, allowing the identification of the major ARs that affected western European coasts between 1979 and 2014. A Lagrangian analysis was then applied in order to identify the main sources of moisture of the ARs that reach western European coasts. Results confirm not only the advection of moisture linked to ARs from subtropical ocean areas but also the existence of a tropical one.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
S. Pereira, A. M. Ramos, J. L. Zêzere, R. M. Trigo, and J. M. Vaquero
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 371–390, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-371-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-371-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This work explores the meteorological conditions of the hydro-geomorphologic event of December 1909 that triggered the highest floods in more than 100 years at the Douro river's mouth and caused important social impacts over the Portuguese and Spanish territories.
The study of this extreme event contributes to a comprehensive and systematic synoptic evaluation of the second most deadly hydro-geomorphologic disaster event occurred in Portugal since 1865.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
M. K. Karremann, J. G. Pinto, P. J. von Bomhard, and M. Klawa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2041–2052, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2041-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2041-2014, 2014
C. M. Grams, H. Binder, S. Pfahl, N. Piaget, and H. Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1691–1702, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1691-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1691-2014, 2014
A. Winschall, S. Pfahl, H. Sodemann, and H. Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 6605–6619, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6605-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6605-2014, 2014
S. Pfahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1461–1475, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1461-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1461-2014, 2014
F. Aemisegger, S. Pfahl, H. Sodemann, I. Lehner, S. I. Seneviratne, and H. Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 4029–4054, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4029-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4029-2014, 2014
S. Pfahl and H. Sodemann
Clim. Past, 10, 771–781, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-771-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-771-2014, 2014
A. K. Miltenberger, S. Pfahl, and H. Wernli
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1989–2004, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1989-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1989-2013, 2013
M. L. R. Liberato, J. G. Pinto, R. M. Trigo, P. Ludwig, P. Ordóñez, D. Yuen, and I. F. Trigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2239–2251, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2239-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2239-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Dynamical processes in midlatitudes
Extreme weather anomalies and surface signatures associated with merged Atlantic–African jets during northern winter
Long vs. short: understanding the dynamics of persistent summer hot spells in Europe
Environments and lifting mechanisms of cold-frontal convective cells during the warm season in Germany
Seasonal to decadal variability and persistence properties of the Euro-Atlantic jet streams characterized by complementary approaches
A pan-European analysis of large-scale drivers of severe convective outbreaks
Minimal influence of future Arctic sea ice loss on North Atlantic jet stream morphology
Weather type reconstruction using machine learning approaches
Temporally and zonally varying atmospheric waveguides – climatologies and connections to quasi-stationary waves
Observation based precipitation life cycle analysis of heavy rainfall events in the southeastern Alpine forelands
Moisture transport axes: a unifying definition for tropical moisture exports, atmospheric rivers, and warm moist intrusions
On the movement of atmospheric blocking systems and the associated temperature responses
An ERA5 climatology of synoptic-scale negative potential vorticity–jet interactions over the western North Atlantic
Atmospheric Dynamics Reduce Mid-latitude Heatwave Frequency under Idealized Climate Change Forcing
Quantifying the spread in sudden stratospheric warming wave forcing in CMIP6
Climatology, long-term variability and trend of resolved gravity wave drag in the stratosphere revealed by ERA 5
Synoptic perspective on the conversion and maintenance of local available potential energy in extratropical cyclones
Frequency anomalies and characteristics of extratropical cyclones during extremely wet, dry, windy, and calm seasons in the extratropics
Two different perspectives on heatwaves within the Lagrangian framework
Learning predictable and informative dynamical drivers of extreme precipitation using variational autoencoders
From sea to sky: understanding the sea surface temperature impact on an atmospheric blocking event using sensitivity experiments with the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) model
Simulating record-shattering cold winters of the beginning of the 21st century in France
Detection and consequences of atmospheric deserts: insights from a case study
A global climatology of sting-jet extratropical cyclones
The impact of preceding convection on the development of Medicane Ianos and the sensitivity to sea surface temperature
The importance of diabatic processes for the dynamics of synoptic-scale extratropical weather systems – a review
The impact of synoptic storm likelihood on European subseasonal forecast uncertainty and their modulation by the stratosphere
Spatio-temporal averaging of jets obscures the reinforcement of baroclinicity by latent heating
Impact of stochastic physics on the representation of atmospheric blocking in EC-Earth3
The crucial representation of deep convection for the cyclogenesis of Medicane Ianos
The connection between North Atlantic storm track regimes and eastern Mediterranean cyclonic activity
A storm-relative climatology of compound hazards in Mediterranean cyclones
A new characterisation of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet using two-dimensional moment analysis
Linking compound weather extremes to Mediterranean cyclones, fronts, and airstreams
A linear assessment of barotropic Rossby wave propagation in different background flow configurations
Towards a process-oriented understanding of the impact of stochastic perturbations on the model climate
Deepening mechanisms of cut-off lows in the Southern Hemisphere and the role of jet streams: insights from eddy kinetic energy analysis
Large-scale perspective on extreme near-surface winds in the central North Atlantic
Divergent convective outflow in ICON deep-convection-permitting and parameterised deep convection simulations
Changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation over the 20th century
Life cycle dynamics of Greenland blocking from a potential vorticity perspective
Warm conveyor belt characteristics and impacts along the life cycle of extratropical cyclones: case studies and climatological analysis based on ERA5
Influence of radiosonde observations on the sharpness and altitude of the midlatitude tropopause in the ECMWF IFS
Analysing 23 years of warm-season derechos in France: a climatology and investigation of synoptic and environmental changes
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
A Lagrangian framework for detecting and characterizing the descent of foehn from Alpine to local scales
The upstream–downstream connection of North Atlantic and Mediterranean cyclones in semi-idealized simulations
Understanding the vertical temperature structure of recent record-shattering heatwaves
Persistent warm and cold spells in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics: regionalisation, synoptic-scale dynamics and temperature budget
Linking Gulf Stream air–sea interactions to the exceptional blocking episode in February 2019: a Lagrangian perspective
Process-based classification of Mediterranean cyclones using potential vorticity
The relation between Rossby wave-breaking events and low-level weather systems
Sohan Suresan, Nili Harnik, and Rodrigo Caballero
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 789–806, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-789-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-789-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study is an exploration of how extreme winter weather events across the Northern Hemisphere are influenced by the rare merging of the Atlantic and African jets, beyond such typical factors as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We identify unique surface signals and changes in cyclone paths associated with such persistent winter jets merging over the Atlantic, offering insights into these extreme winter weather patterns.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Duncan Pappert, Alexandre Tuel, Dim Coumou, Mathieu Vrac, and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 769–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-769-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-769-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study compares the dynamical structures that characterise long-lasting (persistent) and short hot spells in Western Europe. We find differences in large-scale atmospheric flow patterns during the events and particular soil moisture evolutions, which can account for the variation in event duration. There is variability in how drivers combine in individual events. Understanding persistent heat extremes can help improve their representation in models and ultimately their prediction.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
George Pacey, Stephan Pfahl, and Lisa Schielicke
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 695–713, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-695-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-695-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Cold fronts are often associated with areas of intense precipitation (cells) in the warm season, but the drivers and environments of cells at different locations relative to the front are not well-understood. We show that cells ahead of the surface front have the highest amount of environmental instability and moisture. Also, low-level lifting is maximised ahead of the surface front and upper-level lifting is particularly important for cell initiation behind the front.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Hugo Banderier, Alexandre Tuel, Tim Woollings, and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 715–739, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-715-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-715-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The jet stream is the main feature of upper-level flow and drives the weather at the surface. It is stronger and better defined in winter and has mostly been studied in that season. However, it is very important for (extreme) weather in summer. In this work, we improve and use two existing and complementary methods to study the jet stream(s) in the Euro-Atlantic sector, with a focus on summer. We find that our methods can verify each other and agree on interesting signals and trends.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Monika Feldmann, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and Olivia Martius
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2296, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2296, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Severe thunderstorm outbreaks are a source of major damage across Europe. Using historical data, we analysed the large-scale weather patterns that lead to these outbreaks in eight different regions. Three types of regions emerge: those limited by temperature, limited by moisture and overall favourable for thunderstorms; consistent with their associated weather patterns and the general climate. These findings help explain regional differences and provide a basis for future forecast improvements.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Yvonne Anderson, Jacob Perez, and Amanda C. Maycock
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 595–608, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-595-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-595-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of Arctic sea ice loss on the North Atlantic jet stream is debated, with some linking changes to ice loss and others to natural variability. This study uses a new method to explore how future sea ice loss will affect the jet stream. In half of the models, the jet shifts equatorward, but its speed and tilt are unchanged. Some models also exhibit more jet splitting. The results suggest that future sea ice loss is unlikely to significantly weaken the jet stream or make it more variable.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Lucas Pfister, Lena Wilhelm, Yuri Brugnara, Noemi Imfeld, and Stefan Brönnimann
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 571–594, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-571-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-571-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our work compares different machine learning approaches for creating long-term classifications of daily atmospheric circulation patterns using input data from surface meteorological observations. Our comparison reveals that a feedforward neural network performs best at this task. Using this model, we present a daily reconstruction of a commonly used weather type classification for central Europe that dates back to 1728.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Rachel H. White and Lualawi Mareshet Admasu
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 549–570, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-549-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-549-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Mid-latitude atmospheric jet streams sometimes create "waveguides", which are thought to increase the chance of quasi-stationary waves – atmospheric circulation patterns that can lead to extreme weather events. We compare two methods of identifying atmospheric waveguides, finding that one method seems to be less impacted by the presence of waves and provides much stronger correlations with enhanced quasi-stationary waves, and recommend this method for future studies.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Stephanie J. Haas, Andreas Kvas, and Jürgen Fuchsberger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1819, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1819, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In southeast Austria, summer thunderstorms often cause severe damage but are very hard to accurately forecast. With data from the WegenerNet 3D Open-Air Laboratory, we study these storms from beginning to end in multiple atmospheric parameters, like temperature, cloud properties, and wind speed. The characteristic features we find in these parameters expand our understanding of intense storms and can improve their prediction.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Clemens Spensberger, Kjersti Konstali, and Thomas Spengler
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 431–446, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-431-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-431-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The transport of moisture from warmer and moister to colder and drier regions mainly occurs in brief and narrow bursts. In the mid-latitudes, such bursts are generally referred to as atmospheric rivers; in the Arctic they are often referred to as warm moist intrusions. We introduce a new definition to identify such bursts which is based primarily on their elongated structure. With this more general definition, we show that bursts in moisture transport occur frequently across all climate zones.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jonna van Mourik, Hylke de Vries, and Michiel Baatsen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 413–429, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-413-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-413-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric blocking events are quasi-stationary high-pressure areas with large influences on our weather. In this study, we show the wide variety of zonal velocities possible for atmospheric blocking under the most used blocking indices. These include not only stationary blocks, but also eastward- and westward-moving blocks. These respective moving blocks are found to have different characteristics in size and location and have different impacts on our surface temperatures.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alexander Lojko, Andrew C. Winters, Annika Oertel, Christiane Jablonowski, and Ashley E. Payne
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 387–411, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-387-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-387-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Convective storms can produce intense anticyclonically rotating vortices (~10 km) defined by negative potential vorticity (NPV), which can elongate to larger scales (~1000 km). Our composite analysis shows that elongated NPV frequently occurs along the western North Atlantic tropopause, where we observed it enhancing jet stream kinematics. Elongated NPV may impinge on aviation turbulence and weather forecasting despite its small-scale origin.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Wolfgang Wicker, Emmanuele Russo, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1197, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1197, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Heatwaves are becoming more frequent, but the contribution by atmospheric circulation changes is unclear. Experiments with an idealized model that simulates atmospheric dynamics, but excludes clouds, radiation, and moisture, show how a poleward storm track shift increases the eastward phase speed of Rossby waves and reduces mid-latitude heatwave frequency. New evidence suggests that this mechanism is already active in the Southern Hemisphere and may soon emerge in the Northern Hemisphere.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Verónica Martínez-Andradas, Alvaro de la Cámara, Pablo Zurita-Gotor, François Lott, and Federico Serva
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 329–343, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-329-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-329-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Global circulation model biases are present when simulating sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). These are important extreme phenomena that occur in the wintertime stratosphere, driven by the breaking of atmospheric waves. The present work shows that there is a large spread of the wave forcing during the development of SSWs in different models. In the mesosphere, gravity waves are found to force advection of the residual circulation, while planetary waves tend to decelerate the wind.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Zuzana Procházková, Radek Zajíček, and Petr Šácha
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-939, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-939, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In the presented work, we compute and analyze resolved gravity wave drag in ERA 5 reanalysis. Studying gravity waves in a realistic dataset helps us to understand them better and potentially improve climate projections. Part of our results supports a key hypothesis governing vertical distribution of parameterized gravity wave drag in climate models, however, we also provide evidence for a strong influence of horizontal wave propagation, a mechanism that is currently missing in the models.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Marc Federer, Lukas Papritz, Michael Sprenger, and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 211–230, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-211-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-211-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Although extratropical cyclones in the North Atlantic are among the most impactful midlatitude weather systems, their intensification is not entirely understood. Here, we explore how individual cyclones convert available potential energy (APE) into kinetic energy and relate these conversions to the synoptic development of the cyclones. By combining potential vorticity thinking with a local APE framework, we offer a novel perspective on established concepts in dynamic meteorology.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Hanin Binder and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 151–170, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-151-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-151-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a systematic analysis of frequency anomalies and characteristics of extratropical cyclones during extremely wet, dry, windy, and calm winter and summer seasons in the extratropics based on 1050 years of present-day climate simulations. We show that anomalies in cyclone frequency, intensity, and stationarity are crucial to the occurrence of many extreme seasons and that these anomaly patterns exhibit substantial regional and seasonal variability.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Amelie Mayer and Volkmar Wirth
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 131–150, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-131-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-131-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Although heatwaves are among the most dangerous weather-related hazards, their underlying mechanisms are not fully understood. Here, we investigate the formation of heatwaves in an air-parcel-based framework and distinguish the contributions from horizontal transport, vertical transport, and diabatic heating. We show that the results obtained depend profoundly on whether one compares the absolute contributions of the individual terms or, instead, their anomalies relative to climatology.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Fiona Raphaela Spuler, Marlene Kretschmer, Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda, Yevgeniya Kovalchuk, and Theodore G. Shepherd
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4115, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4115, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Large-scale atmospheric dynamics modulate the occurrence of extreme events and can be leveraged to improve their predictability. In this paper, we introduce a generative machine learning method to identify dynamical drivers of a relevant impact variable in the form of targeted circulation regimes. Applying the method to study extreme precipitation over Morocco, we show that these regimes are more predictive of the impact while maintaining their own predictability and physical consistency.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Svenja Christ, Marta Wenta, Christian M. Grams, and Annika Oertel
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 17–42, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-17-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-17-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The detailed representation of sea surface temperature (SST) in numerical models is important for the prediction of atmospheric blocking in the North Atlantic. Yet the underlying physical processes are not fully understood. Using SST sensitivity experiments for a case study, we identify a physical pathway through which SST in the Gulf Stream region is linked to the downstream upper-level flow evolution in the North Atlantic.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Camille Cadiou and Pascal Yiou
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme cold winter temperatures in Europe have huge societal impacts. This study focuses on extreme cold events, such as the winter of 1963 in France, which are expected to become rarer due to climate change. We use a light and efficient rare-event algorithm to simulate a large number of extreme cold winters over France to analyse their characteristics. We find that despite fewer occurrences, their intensity remains steady. We analyse prevailing atmospheric circulation during these events.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Fiona Fix, Georg Mayr, Achim Zeileis, Isabell Stucke, and Reto Stauffer
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1545–1560, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1545-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1545-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric deserts (ADs) are air masses that are transported away from hot, dry regions. Our study introduces this new concept. ADs can suppress or boost thunderstorms and potentially contribute to the formation of heat waves, which makes them relevant for forecasting extreme events. Using a novel detection method, we follow an AD directly from North Africa to Europe for a case in June 2022, allowing us to analyse the air mass at any time and investigate how it is modified along the way.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Suzanne L. Gray, Ambrogio Volonté, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, and Ben J. Harvey
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1523–1544, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1523-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1523-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Sting jets occur in some of the most damaging cyclones impacting Europe. We present the first climatology of sting-jet cyclones over the major ocean basins. Cyclones with sting-jet precursors occur over the North Atlantic, North Pacific, and Southern Oceans, with implications for wind warnings. Precursor cyclones have distinct characteristics, even in reanalyses that are too coarse to fully resolve sting jets, evidencing the climatological consequences of strong diabatic cloud processes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Claudio Sánchez, Suzanne Gray, Ambrogio Volonté, Florian Pantillon, Ségolène Berthou, and Silvio Davolio
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1429–1455, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1429-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Medicane Ianos was a very intense cyclone that led to harmful impacts over Greece. We explore what processes are important for the forecasting of Medicane Ianos, with the use of the Met Office weather model. There was a preceding precipitation event before Ianos’s birth, whose energetics generated a bubble in the tropopause. This bubble created the necessary conditions for Ianos to emerge and strengthen, and the processes are enhanced in simulations with a warmer Mediterranean Sea.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Heini Wernli and Suzanne L. Gray
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1299–1408, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1299-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1299-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The science of extratropical dynamics has reached a new level where the interplay of dry dynamics with effects of latent heating in clouds and other diabatic processes is considered central to the field. This review documents how research about the role of diabatic processes evolved over more than a century; it highlights that progress relied essentially on the integration of theory, field campaigns, novel diagnostics, and numerical modelling, and it outlines avenues for future research.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Philip Rupp, Jonas Spaeth, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Dominik Büeler, Michael Sprenger, and Thomas Birner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1287–1298, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1287-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1287-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify the occurrence of strong synoptic storms as contributing about 20 % to the uncertainty of subseasonal geopotential height forecasts over northern Europe. We further show that North Atlantic storms are less frequent, weaker and shifted southward following sudden stratospheric warming events, leading to a reduction in northern European forecast uncertainty.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Henrik Auestad, Clemens Spensberger, Andrea Marcheggiani, Paulo Ceppi, Thomas Spengler, and Tim Woollings
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1269–1286, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1269-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1269-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Latent heating due to condensation can influence atmospheric circulation by strengthening or weakening horizontal temperature contrasts. Strong temperature contrasts intensify storms and imply the existence of strong upper tropospheric winds called jets. It remains unclear whether latent heating preferentially reinforces or abates the existing jet. We show that this disagreement is attributable to how the jet is defined, confirming that latent heating reinforces the jet.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Michele Filippucci, Simona Bordoni, and Paolo Davini
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1207–1222, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1207-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1207-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric blocking is a recurring phenomenon in midlatitudes, causing winter cold spells and summer heat waves. Current models underestimate it, hindering understanding of global warming's impact on extremes. In this paper, we investigate whether stochastic parameterizations can improve blocking representation. We find that blocking frequency representation slightly deteriorates, following a change in midlatitude winds. We conclude by suggesting a direction for future model development.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Florian Pantillon, Silvio Davolio, Elenio Avolio, Carlos Calvo-Sancho, Diego Saul Carrió, Stavros Dafis, Emanuele Silvio Gentile, Juan Jesus Gonzalez-Aleman, Suzanne Gray, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Platon Patlakas, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Didier Ricard, Antonio Ricchi, Claudio Sanchez, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1187–1205, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1187-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1187-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Cyclone Ianos of September 2020 was a high-impact but poorly predicted medicane (Mediterranean hurricane). A community effort of numerical modelling provides robust results to improve prediction. It is found that the representation of local thunderstorms controlled the interaction of Ianos with a jet stream at larger scales and its subsequent evolution. The results help us understand the peculiar dynamics of medicanes and provide guidance for the next generation of weather and climate models.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Dor Sandler, Hadas Saaroni, Baruch Ziv, Talia Tamarin-Brodsky, and Nili Harnik
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1103–1116, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1103-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1103-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The North Atlantic region serves as a source of moisture and energy for Mediterranean storms. Its impact over the Levant region remains an open question due to its smaller weather systems and their longer distance from the ocean. We find an optimal circulation pattern which allows North Atlantic influence to reach farther into the eastern Mediterranean, thus making storms stronger and rainier. This may be relevant for future Mediterranean climate, which is projected to become much drier.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Raphaël Rousseau-Rizzi, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Jennifer L. Catto, Alice Portal, Yonatan Givon, and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1079–1101, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We identify situations when rain and wind, rain and wave, or heat and dust hazards co-occur within Mediterranean cyclones. These hazard combinations are associated with risk to infrastructure, risk of coastal flooding and risk of respiratory issues. The presence of Mediterranean cyclones is associated with increased probability of all three hazard combinations. We identify weather configurations and cyclone structures, particularly those associated with specific co-occurrence combinations.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jacob Perez, Amanda C. Maycock, Stephen D. Griffiths, Steven C. Hardiman, and Christine M. McKenna
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1061–1078, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1061-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1061-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses existing methods for identifying the position and tilt of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet, proposing a new feature-based approach. The new method overcomes limitations of other methods, offering a more robust characterisation. Contrary to prior findings, the distribution of daily latitudes shows no distinct multi-modal structure, challenging the notion of preferred jet stream latitudes or regimes. This research enhances our understanding of North Atlantic dynamics.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alice Portal, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Jennifer L. Catto, Yonatan Givon, and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1043–1060, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1043-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1043-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mediterranean cyclones are associated with extended rain, wind, and wave impacts. Although beneficial for regional water resources, their passage may induce extreme weather, which is especially impactful when multiple hazards combine together. Here we show how the passage of Mediterranean cyclones increases the likelihood of rain–wind and wave–wind compounding and how compound–cyclone statistics vary by region and season, depending on the presence of specific airflows around the cyclone.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Antonio Segalini, Jacopo Riboldi, Volkmar Wirth, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 997–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-997-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-997-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Planetary Rossby waves are created by topography and evolve in time. In this work, an analytical solution of this classical problem is proposed under the approximation of linear wave dynamics. The theory is able to describe reasonably well the evolution of the perturbation and compares well with full nonlinear simulations. Several relevant cases with single and double zonal jets are assessed with the theoretical framework
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Moritz Deinhard and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 927–942, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-927-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-927-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Stochastic perturbations are an established technique to represent model uncertainties in numerical weather prediction. While such schemes are beneficial for the forecast skill, they can also change the mean state of the model. We analyse how different schemes modulate rapidly ascending airstreams and whether the changes to such weather systems are projected onto larger scales. We thereby provide a process-oriented perspective on how perturbations affect the model climate.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Henri Rossi Pinheiro, Kevin Ivan Hodges, and Manoel Alonso Gan
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 881–894, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-881-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-881-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Cut-off lows (COLs) are weather systems with varied structures and lifecycles, from upper atmospheric to deep vortices. Deep, strong COLs are common around Australia and the southwestern Pacific in autumn and spring, while shallow, weak COLs occur more in summer near the Equator. Jet streams play a crucial role in COL development, with different jets influencing its depth and strength. The study also emphasizes the need for better representation of diabatic processes in reanalysis data.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Aleksa Stanković, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Rodrigo Caballero
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 821–837, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The article studies extreme winds near the surface over the North Atlantic Ocean. These winds are caused by storms that pass through this region. The strongest storms that have occurred in the winters from 1950–2020 are studied in detail and compared to weaker but still strong storms. The analysis shows that the storms associated with the strongest winds are preceded by another older storm that travelled through the same region and made the conditions suitable for development of extreme winds.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Edward Groot, Patrick Kuntze, Annette Miltenberger, and Holger Tost
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 779–803, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-779-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-779-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Deep convective clouds (thunderstorms), which may cause severe weather, tend to coherently organise into structured cloud systems. Accurate representation of these systems in models is difficult due to their complex dynamics and, in numerical simulations, the dependence of their dynamics on resolution. Here, the effect of convective organisation and geometry on their outflow winds (altitudes of 7–14 km) is investigated. Representation of their dynamics and outflows improves at higher resolution.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Stephen Outten and Richard Davy
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 753–762, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-753-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-753-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The North Atlantic Oscillation is linked to wintertime weather events over Europe. One feature often overlooked is how much the climate variability explained by the NAO has changed over time. We show that there has been a considerable increase in the percentage variance explained by the NAO over the 20th century and that this is not reproduced by 50 CMIP6 climate models, which are generally biased too high. This has implications for projections and prediction of weather events in the region.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Seraphine Hauser, Franziska Teubler, Michael Riemer, Peter Knippertz, and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 633–658, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-633-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Blocking over Greenland has substantial impacts on the weather and climate in mid- and high latitudes. This study applies a quasi-Lagrangian thinking on the dynamics of Greenland blocking and reveals two pathways of anticyclonic anomalies linked to the block. Moist processes were found to play a dominant role in the formation and maintenance of blocking. This emphasizes the necessity of the correct representation of moist processes in weather and climate models to realistically depict blocking.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Katharina Heitmann, Michael Sprenger, Hanin Binder, Heini Wernli, and Hanna Joos
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 537–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-537-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-537-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are coherently ascending air streams that occur in extratropical cyclones where they form precipitation and often affect the large-scale flow. We quantified the key characteristics and impacts of WCBs and linked them to different phases in the cyclone life cycle and to different WCB branches. A climatology of these metrics revealed that WCBs are most intense during cyclone intensification and that the cyclonic and anticyclonic WCB branches show distinct differences.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Konstantin Krüger, Andreas Schäfler, Martin Weissmann, and George C. Craig
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 491–509, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-491-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-491-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Initial conditions of current numerical weather prediction models insufficiently represent the sharp vertical gradients across the midlatitude tropopause. Observation-space data assimilation output is used to study the influence of assimilated radiosondes on the tropopause. The radiosondes reduce systematic biases of the model background and sharpen temperature and wind gradients in the analysis. Tropopause sharpness is still underestimated in the analysis, which may impact weather forecasts.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Lucas Fery and Davide Faranda
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 439–461, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-439-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-439-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we analyse warm-season derechos – a type of severe convective windstorm – in France between 2000 and 2022, identifying 38 events. We compare their frequency and features with other countries. We also examine changes in the associated large-scale patterns. We find that convective instability has increased in southern Europe. However, the attribution of these changes to natural climate variability, human-induced climate change or a combination of both remains unclear.
Lukas Jansing, Lukas Papritz, and Michael Sprenger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 463–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-463-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-463-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using an innovative approach, the descent of foehn is diagnosed from a Lagrangian perspective based on 15 kilometer-scale simulations combined with online trajectories. The descent is confined to distinct hotspots in the immediate lee of local mountain peaks and chains. Two detailed case studies reveal a varying wave regime to be associated with the descent. Furthermore, additional controlling factors, such as the diurnal cycle, likewise influence the descent activity.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alexander Scherrmann, Heini Wernli, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 419–438, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-419-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-419-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We show that the formation of Mediterranean cyclones follows the presence of cyclones over the North Atlantic. The distinct regions of cyclone activity in the Mediterranean in the different seasons can be linked to the atmospheric state, in particular the position of the polar jet over the North Atlantic. With this we now better understand the processes that lead to the formation of Mediterranean cyclones. We used a novel simulation framework in which we directly show and probe this connection.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Belinda Hotz, Lukas Papritz, and Matthias Röthlisberger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 323–343, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-323-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-323-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Analysing the vertical structure of temperature anomalies of recent record-breaking heatwaves reveals a complex four-dimensional interplay of anticyclone–heatwave interactions, with vertically strongly varying advective, adiabatic, and diabatic contributions to the respective temperature anomalies. The heatwaves featured bottom-heavy positive temperature anomalies, extending throughout the troposphere.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alexandre Tuel and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 263–292, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-263-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Warm and cold spells often have damaging consequences for agriculture, power demand, human health and infrastructure, especially when they occur over large areas and persist for a week or more. Here, we split the Northern Hemisphere extratropics into coherent regions where 3-week warm and cold spells in winter and summer are associated with the same large-scale circulation patterns. To understand their physical drivers, we analyse the associated circulation and temperature budget anomalies.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Marta Wenta, Christian M. Grams, Lukas Papritz, and Marc Federer
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 181–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-181-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-181-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study links air–sea interactions over the Gulf Stream to an atmospheric block in February 2019. We found that over 23 % of air masses that were lifted into the block by cyclones interacted with the Gulf Stream. As cyclones pass over the Gulf Stream, they cause intense surface evaporation events, preconditioning the environment for the development of cyclones. This implies that air–sea interactions over the Gulf Stream affect the large-scale dynamics in the North Atlantic–European region.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Yonatan Givon, Or Hess, Emmanouil Flaounas, Jennifer Louise Catto, Michael Sprenger, and Shira Raveh-Rubin
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 133–162, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-133-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A novel classification of Mediterranean cyclones is presented, enabling a separation between storms driven by different atmospheric processes. The surface impact of each cyclone class differs greatly by precipitation, winds, and temperatures, providing an invaluable tool to study the climatology of different types of Mediterranean storms and enhancing the understanding of their predictability, on both weather and climate scales.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Talia Tamarin-Brodsky and Nili Harnik
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 87–108, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-87-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-87-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Synoptic waves in the atmosphere tend to follow a typical Rossby wave lifecycle, involving a linear growth stage followed by nonlinear and irreversible Rossby wave breaking (RWB). Here we take a new approach to study RWB events and their fundamental relation to weather systems by combining a storm-tracking technique and an RWB detection algorithm. The synoptic-scale dynamics leading to RWB is then examined by analyzing time evolution composites of cyclones and anticyclones during RWB events.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Cited articles
Alfieri, L., Dottori, F., Betts, R., Salamon, P., and Feyen, L.: Multi-model projections of river flood risk in Europe under global warming, Climate, 6, 6, https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6010006, 2018. a
Altenhoff, A. M., Martius, O., Croci-Maspoli, M., Schwierz, C., and Davies,
H. C.: Linkage of atmospheric blocks and synoptic-scale Rossby waves: a
climatological analysis, Tellus A, 60, 1053–1063, 2008. a
Anagnostopoulou, C., Tolika, K., Lazoglou, G., and Maheras, P.: The
exceptionally cold January of 2017 over the Balkan Peninsula: A
climatological and synoptic analysis, Atmosphere, 8, 252,
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos8120252, 2017. a, b, c, d
Aon: Weather, Climate and Catastrophe Insight – 2017 Annual Report,
http://thoughtleadership.aon.com/Documents/20180124-ab-if-annual-report-weather-climate-2017.pdf (last access: 21 November 2021), 2018. a
Athanasiadis, P. J., Bellucci, A., Hermanson, L., Scaife, A. A., MacLachlan,
C., Arribas, A., Materia, S., Borrelli, A., and Gualdi, S.: The
representation of atmospheric blocking and the associated low-frequency
variability in two seasonal prediction systems, J. Climate, 27,
9082–9100, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00291.1, 2014. a
Athanasiadis, P. J., Yeager, S., Kwon, Y.-O., Bellucci, A., Smith, D. W., and
Tibaldi, S.: Decadal predictability of North Atlantic blocking and the
NAO, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 3, 1–10,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-020-0120-6, 2020. a
Athanasopoulou, E., Rieger, D., Walter, C., Vogel, H., Karali, A., Hatzaki, M., Gerasopoulos, E., Vogel, B., Giannakopoulos, C., Gratsea, M., and Roussos, A.: Fire risk, atmospheric chemistry and radiative forcing assessment of wildfires in eastern Mediterranean, Atmos. Environ., 95, 113–125, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.05.077, 2014. a
Austin, J.: The blocking of middle latitude westerly winds by planetary waves, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 106, 327–350,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49710644807, 1980. a
Barnes, E. A., Slingo, J., and Woollings, T.: A methodology for the comparison of blocking climatologies across indices, models and climate scenarios, Clim. Dynam., 38, 2467–2481, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1243-6, 2012. a
Barriopedro, D., García-Herrera, R., Lupo, A. R., and Hernández, E.: A climatology of Northern Hemisphere blocking, J. Climate, 19,
1042–1063, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3678.1, 2006. a, b, c
Barriopedro, D., García-Herrera, R., and Trigo, R. M.: Application of
blocking diagnosis methods to general circulation models. Part I: A novel
detection scheme, Clim. Dynam., 35, 1373–1391,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0767-5, 2010. a
Bastos, A., Ciais, P., Friedlingstein, P., Sitch, S., Pongratz, J., Fan, L., Wigneron, J. P., Weber, U., Reichstein, M., Fu, Z., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Haverd, V., Jain, A. K., Joetzjer, E., Knauer, J., Lienert, S., Loughran, T., McGuire, P. C., Tian, H., Viovy, N., and Zaehle, S.: Direct and
seasonal legacy effects of the 2018 heat wave and drought on European
ecosystem productivity, Sci. Adv., 6, eaba2724,
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aba2724, 2020. a
Beerli, R., Wernli, H., and Grams, C. M.: Does the lower stratosphere provide predictability for month-ahead wind electricity generation in Europe?, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 143, 3025–3036,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3158, 2017. a
Bengtsson, L.: Numerical prediction of atmospheric blocking – A case study,
Tellus, 33, 19–42, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v33i1.10692, 1981. a
Beniston, M. and Diaz, H. F.: The 2003 heat wave as an example of summers in a greenhouse climate? Observations and climate model simulations for Basel,
Switzerland, Global Planet. Change, 44, 73–81,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2004.06.006, 2004. a, b
Berckmans, J., Woollings, T., Demory, M.-E., Vidale, P.-L., and Roberts, M.:
Atmospheric blocking in a high resolution climate model: influences of mean
state, orography and eddy forcing, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 14, 34–40,
https://doi.org/10.1002/asl2.412, 2013. a, b
Berggren, R., Bolin, B., and Rossby, C.-G.: An aerological study of zonal
motion, its perturbations and break-down, Tellus, 1, 14–37,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1949.tb01257.x, 1949. a, b, c
Bieli, M., Pfahl, S., and Wernli, H.: A Lagrangian investigation of hot and cold temperature extremes in Europe, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141,
98–108, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2339, 2015. a, b, c, d
Black, E., Blackburn, M., Harrison, G., Hoskins, B., and Methven, J.: Factors
contributing to the summer 2003 European heatwave, Weather, 59, 217–223,
https://doi.org/10.1256/wea.74.04, 2004. a, b, c, d
Blöschl, G., Nester, T., Komma, J., Parajka, J., and Perdigão, R. A. P.: The June 2013 flood in the Upper Danube Basin, and comparisons with the 2002, 1954 and 1899 floods, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 5197–5212, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-5197-2013, 2013. a, b, c, d
Booth, J. F., Dunn-Sigouin, E., and Pfahl, S.: The Relationship Between
Extratropical Cyclone Steering and Blocking Along the North American East
Coast, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 11976–11984,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075941, 2017. a
Branković, Č., Patarčić, M., Güttler, I., and Srnec,
L.: Near-future climate change over Europe with focus on Croatia in an
ensemble of regional climate model simulations, Clim. Res., 52,
227–251, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01058, 2012. a
Breil, M., Laube, N., Pinto, J. G., and Schädler, G.: The impact of soil
initialization on regional decadal climate predictions in Europe, Clim.
Res., 77, 139–154, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01548, 2019. a
Brunner, L. and Steiner, A. K.: A global perspective on atmospheric blocking using GPS radio occultation – one decade of observations, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 4727–4745, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-4727-2017, 2017. a
Brunner, L., Steiner, A. K., Scherllin-Pirscher, B., and Jury, M. W.: Exploring atmospheric blocking with GPS radio occultation observations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 4593–4604, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4593-2016, 2016. a
Brunner, L., Hegerl, G. C., and Steiner, A. K.: Connecting atmospheric blocking to European temperature extremes in spring, J. Climate, 30,
585–594, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0518.1, 2017. a
Buehler, T., Raible, C. C., and Stocker, T. F.: The relationship of winter season North Atlantic blocking frequencies to extreme cold or dry spells
in the ERA-40, Tellus A, 63, 174–187,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00492.x, 2011. a, b, c
Cassou, C., Terray, L., and Phillips, A. S.: Tropical Atlantic Influence on European Heat Waves, J. Climate, 18, 2805–2811,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3506.1, 2005. a, b
Cattiaux, J., Vautard, R., Cassou, C., Yiou, P., Masson-Delmotte, V., and
Codron, F.: Winter 2010 in Europe: A cold extreme in a warming climate,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L20704, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044613, 2010. a, b, c, d
Chan, P.-W., Hassanzadeh, P., and Kuang, Z.: Evaluating Indices of Blocking
Anticyclones in Terms of Their Linear Relations With Surface Hot Extremes,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 4904–4912, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083307,
2019. a, b, c
Charlton-Perez, A. J., Aldridge, R. W., Grams, C. M., and Lee, R.: Winter pressures on the UK health system dominated by the Greenland Blocking weather
regime, Weather and Climate Extremes, 25, 100218,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100218, 2019. a
Chattopadhyay, A., Nabizadeh, E., and Hassanzadeh, P.: Analog Forecasting of Extreme-Causing Weather Patterns Using Deep Learning, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 12, e2019MS001958, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001958, 2020. a
Chen, D., Rojas, M., Samset, B. H., Cobb, K., Diongue Niang, A., Edwards, P., Emori, S., Faria, S. H., Hawkins, E., Hope, P., Huybrechts, P., Meinshausen, M., Mustafa, S. K., Plattner, G.-K., and Tréguier, A.-M.: Framing, Context, and Methods, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, in press, 2022. a
Chen, G., Lu, J., Burrows, D. A., and Leung, L. R.: Local finite-amplitude wave activity as an objective diagnostic of midlatitude extreme weather, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 10–952, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066959, 2015. a
Chen, K., Gawarkiewicz, G., Kwon, Y.-O., and Zhang, W. G.: The role of atmospheric forcing versus ocean advection during the extreme warming of the
Northeast US continental shelf in 2012, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 120, 4324–4339, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JC010547, 2015. a
Cheung, H. N., Zhou, W., Shao, Y., Chen, W., Mok, H. Y., and Wu, M. C.:
Observational climatology and characteristics of wintertime atmospheric
blocking over Ural–Siberia, Clim. Dynam., 41, 63–79,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1587-6, 2013. a
Colucci, S. J.: Explosive cyclogenesis and large-scale circulation changes: Implications for atmospheric blocking, J. Atmos. Sci., 42, 2701–2717, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1985)042<2701:ECALSC>2.0.CO;2, 1985. a, b
Coumou, D. and Rahmstorf, S.: A decade of weather extremes, Nat. Clim.
Change, 2, 491–496, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1452, 2012. a
Coumou, D., Lehmann, J., and Beckmann, J.: The weakening summer circulation in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, Science, 348, 324–327,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1261768, 2015. a
Croci-Maspoli, M. and Davies, H. C.: Key Dynamical Features of the 2005/06
European Winter, Mon. Weather Rev., 137, 664–678,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2533.1, 2009. a
Croci-Maspoli, M., Schwierz, C., and Davies, H. C.: Atmospheric blocking:
Space-time links to the NAO and PNA, Clim. Dynam., 29, 713–725, 2007. a
Crum, F. X. and Stevens, D. F.: A case study of atmospheric blocking using
isentropic analysis, Mon. Weather Rev., 116, 223–241,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1988)116<0223:ACSOAB>2.0.CO;2, 1988. a, b
Davini, P. and D'Andrea, F.: Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking
representation in global climate models: Twenty years of improvements?,
J. Climate, 29, 8823–8840, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0242.1, 2016. a, b
Davini, P., Cagnazzo, C., Neale, R., and Tribbia, J.: Coupling between
Greenland blocking and the North Atlantic Oscillation pattern,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L14701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052315, 2012. a
Davini, P., Weisheimer, A., Balmaseda, M., Johnson, S. J., Molteni, F., Roberts, C. D., Senan, R., and Stockdale, T. N.: The representation of winter Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking in ECMWF seasonal prediction systems, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 147, 1344–1363, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3974, 2021. a
Davolio, S., Stocchi, P., Benetazzo, A., Bohm, E., Riminucci, F., Ravaioli, M., Li, X.-M., and Carniel, S.: Exceptional Bora outbreak in winter 2012:
Validation and analysis of high-resolution atmospheric model simulations in
the northern Adriatic area, Dynam. Atmos. Oceans, 71, 1–20,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2015.05.002, 2015. a
De Bono, A., Peduzzi, P., Kluser, S., and Giuliani, G.: Impacts of summer 2003 heat wave in Europe, United Nations Environment Programme, https://archive-ouverte.unige.ch/unige:32255 (last access: 19 November 2021), 2004. a
de'Donato, F. K., Leone, M., Noce, D., Davoli, M., and Michelozzi, P.: The impact of the February 2012 cold spell on health in Italy using surveillance
data, PloS one, 8, e61720, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0061720, 2013. a
de Vries, H., Haarsma, R. J., and Hazeleger, W.: Western European cold spells in current and future climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L04706,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050665, 2012. a
Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Casado, M., and Pastor, M.: Sensitivity of the Northern Hemisphere blocking frequency to the detection index, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 107, ACL 6-1–ACL 6-22, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JD000290, 2002. a
Donat, M. G., Pardowitz, T., Leckebusch, G. C., Ulbrich, U., and Burghoff, O.: High-resolution refinement of a storm loss model and estimation of return periods of loss-intensive storms over Germany, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 2821–2833, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-2821-2011, 2011. a
Drouard, M. and Woollings, T.: Contrasting mechanisms of summer blocking over
western Eurasia, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 12040–12048, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079894, 2018. a, b, c
Drouard, M., Woollings, T., Sexton, D. M., and McSweeney, C. F.: Dynamical
differences between short and long blocks in the Northern Hemisphere,
J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 126, e2020JD034082,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD034082, 2021. a
Dunn-Sigouin, E. and Son, S.-W.: Northern Hemisphere blocking frequency and
duration in the CMIP5 models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.,
118, 1179–1188, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50143, 2013. a, b
Ehmele, F., Kautz, L.-A., Feldmann, H., and Pinto, J. G.: Long-term variance of heavy precipitation across central Europe using a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations, Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 469–490, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-469-2020, 2020. a
Ellis, F., Prince, H., Lovatt, G., and Whittington, R.: Mortality and morbidity in Birmingham during the 1976 heatwave, QJM-Int. J. Med., 49, 1–8, https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.qjmed.a067600, 1980. a
Erekat, D. and Nofal, A.: Rapid damage, loss and needs assessment of Winter Storm Alexa: a report by the Palestinian authority, World Bank, Washington, DC, https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/20120 (last access: 20 November 2021), 2013. a
Ferranti, L., Corti, S., and Janousek, M.: Flow-dependent verification of the ECMWF ensemble over the Euro-Atlantic sector, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 916–924, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2411, 2015. a
Ferranti, L., Magnusson, L., Vitart, F., and Richardson, D. S.: How far in
advance can we predict changes in large-scale flow leading to severe cold
conditions over Europe?, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 144, 1788–1802, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3341, 2018. a, b, c, d
Fink, A. H., Brücher, T., Krüger, A., Leckebusch, G. C., Pinto, J. G., and
Ulbrich, U.: The 2003 European summer heatwaves and drought – synoptic
diagnosis and impacts, Weather, 59, 209–216, https://doi.org/10.1256/wea.73.04, 2004. a, b, c, d
Fink, A. H., Brücher, T., Ermert, V., Krüger, A., and Pinto, J. G.: The European storm Kyrill in January 2007: synoptic evolution, meteorological impacts and some considerations with respect to climate change, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 405–423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-405-2009, 2009. a, b, c
Finlay, S. E., Moffat, A., Gazzard, R., Baker, D., and Murray, V.: Health impacts of wildfires, PLoS currents, 4, e4f959951cce2c, https://doi.org/10.1371/4f959951cce2c, 2012. a
Fischer, E. M. and Schär, C.: Consistent geographical patterns of changes in high-impact European heatwaves, Nat. Geosci., 3, 398–403,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo866, 2010. a
Fischer, E. M., Seneviratne, S. I., Vidale, P. L., Lüthi, D., and Schär, C.: Soil Moisture – Atmosphere Interactions during the 2003 European Summer Heat Wave, J. Climate, 20, 5081–5099,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4288.1, 2007. a, b, c, d
Folland, C. K., Karl, T. R., and Jim Salinger, M.: Observed climate variability and change, Weather, 57, 269–278, https://doi.org/10.1256/004316502320517353, 2002. a
Forzieri, G., Cescatti, A., e Silva, F. B., and Feyen, L.: Increasing risk over time of weather-related hazards to the European population: a data-driven prognostic study, Lancet Planetary Health, 1, e200–e208, https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(17)30082-7, 2017. a
Fragkoulidis, G., Wirth, V., Bossmann, P., and Fink, A. H.: Linking Northern Hemisphere temperature extremes to Rossby wave packets, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 144, 553–566, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3228, 2018. a
Francis, J. A. and Vavrus, S. J.: Evidence for a wavier jet stream in response to rapid Arctic warming, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 014005,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/1/014005, 2015. a
Frederiksen, J. S., Collier, M. A., and Watkins, A. B.: Ensemble prediction of blocking regime transitions, Tellus A, 56, 485–500, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v56i5.14460, 2004. a, b
Froidevaux, P., Schwanbeck, J., Weingartner, R., Chevalier, C., and Martius, O.: Flood triggering in Switzerland: the role of daily to monthly preceding precipitation, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3903–3924, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3903-2015, 2015. a
Gabriel, A. and Peters, D.: A diagnostic study of different types of Rossby wave breaking events in the northern extratropics, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 86, 613–631, 2008. a
Garcia-Herrera, R. and Barriopedro, D.: Northern Hemisphere snow cover and
atmospheric blocking variability, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 111, D21104, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005jd006975, 2006. a, b
Garcia-Herrera, R., Hernández, E., Barriopedro, D., Paredes, D., Trigo, R. M., Trigo, I. F., and Mendes, M. A.: The outstanding 2004/05 drought in the Iberian Peninsula: associated atmospheric circulation, J. Hydrometeorol., 8, 483–498, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM578.1, 2007. a, b, c
García-Herrera, R., Díaz, J., Trigo, R. M., Luterbacher, J., and Fischer, E. M.: A review of the European summer heat wave of 2003, Crit. Rev. Env. Sci. Tec., 40, 267–306, https://doi.org/10.1080/10643380802238137, 2010. a, b
García-Herrera, R., Garrido-Perez, J. M., Barriopedro, D.,
Ordóñez, C., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Nieto, R., Gimeno, L.,
Sorí, R., and Yiou, P.: The European 2016/17 Drought, J.
Climate, 32, 3169–3187, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0331.1, 2019. a, b, c
Gasparrini, A., Guo, Y., Hashizume, M., Lavigne, E., Zanobetti, A., Schwartz, J., Tobias, A., Tong, S., Rocklöv, J., Forsberg, B., Leone, M., De Sario, M., Bell, M. L., Guo, Y. L., Wu, C., Kan, H., Yi, S., Coelho, M. S. Z. S., Saldiva, P. H. N., Honda, Y., Kim, H., and Armstrong, B.: Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study, Lancet, 386, 369–375, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(14)62114-0, 2015. a, b
Glisan, J. M.: Two extreme cases of atmospheric blocking over Europe and North America, PhD thesis, University of Missouri–Columbia,
https://doi.org/10.32469/10355/5094, 2007. a
Gollan, G. and Greatbatch, R. J.: The relationship between northern hemisphere winter blocking and tropical modes of variability, J. Climate, 30,
9321–9337, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0742.1, 2017. a
Grams, C. M., Binder, H., Pfahl, S., Piaget, N., and Wernli, H.: Atmospheric processes triggering the central European floods in June 2013, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1691–1702, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1691-2014, 2014. a, b, c, d
Grams, C. M., Beerli, R., Pfenninger, S., Staffell, I., and Wernli, H.:
Balancing Europe's wind-power output through spatial deployment informed
by weather regimes, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 557–562,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3338, 2017. a
Green, J. S. A.: The weather during July 1976: Some dynamical considerations of the droughts, Weather, 32, 120–126, https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1477-8696.1977.tb04532.x, 1977. a, b
Grumm, R. H.: The Central European and Russian Heat Event of July–August 2010, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 92, 1285–1296, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011BAMS3174.1, 2011. a, b, c, d
Haigh, I. D., Wadey, M. P., Wahl, T., Ozsoy, O., Nicholls, R. J., Brown, J. M., Horsburgh, K., and Gouldby, B.: Spatial and temporal analysis of extreme sea level and storm surge events around the coastline of the UK, Scientific Data, 3, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2016.107, 2016. a
Haines, D. A.: A lower atmosphere severity index for wildlife fires, National Weather Digest, 13, 23–27, 1989. a
Hamill, T. M. and Kiladis, G. N.: Skill of the MJO and Northern
Hemisphere blocking in GEFS medium-range reforecasts, Mon. Weather
Rev., 142, 868–885, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00199.1, 2014. a, b
Hauser, M., Orth, R., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Role of soil moisture versus recent climate change for the 2010 heat wave in western Russia, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 43, 2819–2826, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068036, 2016. a
Heim Jr., R. R.: A review of twentieth-century drought indices used in the United States, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 83, 1149–1166, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477-83.8.1149, 2002. a
Henderson, S. A., Maloney, E. D., and Barnes, E. A.: The influence of the
Madden–Julian oscillation on Northern Hemisphere winter blocking,
J. Climate, 29, 4597–4616, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0502.1, 2016. a
Hénin, R., Ramos, A. M., Pinto, J. G., and Liberato, M. L.: A ranking of
concurrent precipitation and wind events for the Iberian Peninsula,
Int. J. Climatol., 41, 1421–1437, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6829, 2020. a, b
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Biavati, G., Horányi, A., Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Dee, D., and Thépaut, J.-N.: ERA5 monthly averaged data on single levels from 1979 to present, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.f17050d7, 2019a. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Biavati, G., Horányi, A., Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Dee, D., and Thépaut, J.-N.: ERA5 monthly averaged data on pressure levels from 1979 to present. Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set],
https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.6860a573, 2019b. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020. a, b, c
Hofherr, T. and Kunz, M.: Extreme wind climatology of winter storms in
Germany, Clim. Res., 41, 105–123, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00844, 2010. a
Holbrook, N. J., Gupta, A. S., Oliver, E. C., Hobday, A. J., Benthuysen, J. A., Scannell, H. A., Smale, D. A., and Wernberg, T.: Keeping pace with marine heatwaves, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 1, 482–493,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-0068-4, 2020. a
Horsburgh, K. and Wilson, C.: Tide-surge interaction and its role in the
distribution of surge residuals in the North Sea, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 112, C08003, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JC004033, 2007. a
Horton, D. E., Johnson, N. C., Singh, D., Swain, D. L., Rajaratnam, B., and
Diffenbaugh, N. S.: Contribution of changes in atmospheric circulation
patterns to extreme temperature trends, Nature, 522, 465–469,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14550, 2015. a
Hoskins, B. J. and Sardeshmukh, P. D.: A diagnostic study of the dynamics of
the northern hemisphere winter of 1985–86, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 113, 759–778, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49711347705, 1987. a, b
Hoskins, B. J., McIntyre, M. E., and Robertson, A. W.: On the use and
significance of isentropic potential vorticity maps, Q. J.
Roy. Meteor. Soc., 111, 877–946, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49711147002,
1985. a, b, c, d
Huang, C. S. and Nakamura, N.: Local finite-amplitude wave activity as a
diagnostic of anomalous weather events, J. Atmos. Sci.,
73, 211–229, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0194.1, 2016. a
Huguenin, M. F., Fischer, E. M., Kotlarski, S., Scherrer, S. C., Schwierz, C., and Knutti, R.: Lack of Change in the Projected Frequency and Persistence of Atmospheric Circulation Types Over Central Europe, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL086132, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086132, 2020. a
Ionita, M., Dima, M., Lohmann, G., Scholz, P., and Rimbu, N.: Predicting the
June 2013 European flooding based on precipitation, soil moisture, and sea
level pressure, J. Hydrometeorol., 16, 598–614,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0156.1, 2015. a
Irwin, J. F.: Raging rivers and propaganda weevils: transnational disaster relief, Cold War politics, and the 1954 Danube and Elbe floods, Diplomatic Hist., 40, 893–921, https://doi.org/10.1093/dh/dhv053, 2016. a
Janjić, J., Gallagher, S., and Dias, F.: Case study of the winter 2013/2014 extreme wave events off the west coast of Ireland, Adv. Sci. Res., 15, 145–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-15-145-2018, 2018. a
Jensen, J., Arns, A., and Wahl, T.: Yet another 100yr storm surge event: the role of individual storm surges on design water levels, J. Mar. Sci. Technol., 23, 882–887, https://doi.org/10.6119/JMST-015-0610-5, 2015. a
Jézéquel, A., Bevacqua, E., d'Andrea, F., Thao, S., Vautard, R., Vrac, M., and Yiou, P.: Conditional and residual trends of singular hot days in Europe, Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 064018, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab76dd, 2020. a
Jung, T., Miller, M. J., Palmer, T. N., Towers, P., Wedi, N., Achuthavarier,
D., Adams, J. M., Altshuler, E. L., Cash, B. A., Kinter Iii, J. L., Marx, L., Stan, C., and Hodges, K. I.: High-resolution
global climate simulations with the ECMWF model in Project Athena:
Experimental design, model climate, and seasonal forecast skill, J. Climate, 25, 3155–3172, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00265.1, 2012. a
Karpechko, A. Y., Charlton-Perez, A., Balmaseda, M., Tyrrell, N., and Vitart, F.: Predicting sudden stratospheric warming 2018 and its climate impacts with a multimodel ensemble, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 13–538,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081091, 2018. a, b
Karremann, M. K., Liberato, M. L., Ordóñez, P., and Pinto, J. G.:
Characterization of synoptic conditions and cyclones associated with top
ranking potential wind loss events over Iberia, Atmos. Sci. Lett.,
17, 354–361, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.665, 2016. a
Kautz, L.-A., Polichtchouk, I., Birner, T., Garny, H., and Pinto, J. G.:
Enhanced extended-range predictability of the 2018 late-winter Eurasian
cold spell due to the stratosphere, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1040–1055, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3724, 2020. a, b
Kelemen, F. D., Ludwig, P., Reyers, M., Ulbrich, S., and Pinto, J. G.:
Evaluation of moisture sources for the Central European summer flood of
May/June 2013 based on regional climate model simulations, Tellus A, 68, 29288, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v68.29288, 2016. a
Kennedy, D., Parker, T., Woollings, T., Harvey, B., and Shaffrey, L.: The
response of high-impact blocking weather systems to climate change,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 7250–7258, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069725,
2016. a, b
Kjellström, E., Nikulin, G., Hansson, U., Strandberg, G., and Ullerstig, A.: 21st century changes in the European climate: uncertainties derived from
an ensemble of regional climate model simulations, Tellus A, 63, 24–40,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00475.x, 2011. a
Koppe, C., Kovasts, S., Jendritzky, G., and Menne, B.: Heat-waves: risks and responses, Tech. rep., vol. 2, Copenhagen: WHO Regional Office for Europe, ISBN 92 890 1094 0., 2004. a
Kornhuber, K., Coumou, D., Vogel, E., Lesk, C., Donges, J. F., and an Radley
M. Horton, J. L.: Amplified Rossby waves enhance risk of concurrent
heatwaves in major breadbasket regions, Nat. Clim. Change, 10, 48–53,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0637-z, 2020. a, b
Kovats, R. S. and Kristie, L. E.: Heatwaves and public health in Europe, Eur. J. Public Health, 16, 592–599, https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckl049, 2006. a
Lassnig, E., Dinkhauser, P., Maurer, E., and Eber, B.: Life-threatening heat stroke presenting with ST elevations: a report of consecutive cases during the heat wave in Austria in July 2013, Wien. Klin. Wochenschr., 126,
491–494, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00508-014-0531-7, 2014. a
Lavaysse, C., Naumann, G., Alfieri, L., Salamon, P., and Vogt, J.:
Predictability of the European heat and cold waves, Clim. Dynam., 52,
2481–2495, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4273-5, 2019. a
Lejenäs, H.: The Severe Winter in Europe 1941–42: The Large-scale Circulation, Cut-off Lows, and Blocking, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 70, 271–281, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1989)070<0271:TSWIET>2.0.CO;2, 1989. a, b
Lenggenhager, S. and Martius, O.: Quantifying the link between heavy
precipitation and Northern Hemisphere blocking – A Lagrangian
analysis, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 21, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.999, 2020. a
Lenggenhager, S., Croci-Maspoli, M., Bronnimann, S., and Martius, O.: On the dynamical coupling between atmospheric blocks and heavy precipitation events: A discussion of the southern Alpine flood in October 2000, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 145, 530–545, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3449, 2019. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h
Leonard, M., Westra, S., Phatak, A., Lambert, M., van den Hurk, B., McInnes,
K., Risbey, J., Schuster, S., Jakob, D., and Stafford-Smith, M.: A compound
event framework for understanding extreme impacts, WIRES Climate Change, 5, 113–128, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.252, 2014. a
Lhotka, O. and Kysely, J.: Hot Central-European summer of 2013 in a
long-term context, Int. J. Climatol., 35, 4399–4407,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4277, 2015. a, b
Li, R. K., Woollings, T., O'Reilly, C., and Scaife, A. A.: Effect of the
North Pacific Tropospheric Waveguide on the Fidelity of Model El
Niño Teleconnections, J. Climate, 33, 5223–5237,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0156.1, 2020. a
Liu, Q.: On the definition and persistence of blocking, Tellus A, 46, 286–298, https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1994.t01-2-00004.x, 1994. a, b
Luo, D., Cha, J., Zhong, L., and Dai, A.: A nonlinear multiscale interaction
model for atmospheric blocking: The eddy-blocking matching mechanism,
Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 140, 1785–1808,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2337, 2014. a, b
Luo, D., Xiao, Y., Yao, Y., Dai, A., Simmonds, I., and Franzke, C. L.: Impact of Ural blocking on winter warm Arctic–cold Eurasian anomalies. Part I: Blocking-induced amplification, J. Climate, 29, 3925–3947,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0611.1, 2016. a, b
Luo, D., Chen, X., Dai, A., and Simmonds, I.: Changes in atmospheric blocking circulations linked with winter Arctic warming: A new perspective, J. Climate, 31, 7661–7678, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0040.1, 2018. a
Luo, D. H., Yao, Y., Dai, A. G., and Feldstein, S. B.: The Positive North
Atlantic Oscillation with Downstream Blocking and Middle East
Snowstorms: The Large-Scale Environment, J. Climate, 28, 6398–6418,
https://doi.org/10.1175/Jcli-D-15-0184.1, 2015. a, b, c, d
Lupo, A. R.: Atmospheric blocking events: a review, Ann. NY Acad. Sci., 1504, 5–24, https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14557, 2020. a
Lupo, A. R. and Smith, P. J.: Planetary and synoptic-scale interactions during the life cycle of a mid-latitude blocking anticyclone over the North
Atlantic, Tellus A, 47, 575–596, https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1995.00106.x,
1995. a, b
Maddison, J., Gray, S., Martínez-Alvarado, O., and Williams, K.: Upstream cyclone influence on the predictability of block onsets over the
Euro-Atlantic region, Mon. Weather Rev., 147, 1277–1296,
https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-18-0226.1, 2019. a
Maddison, J. W., Gray, S. L., Martínez-Alvarado, O., and Williams, K. D.: Impact of model upgrades on diabatic processes in extratropical cyclones and downstream forecast evolution, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1322–1350, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3739, 2020. a
Madonna, E., Wernli, H., Joos, H., and Martius, O.: Warm conveyor belts in the ERA-Interim dataset (1979–2010). Part I: Climatology and potential
vorticity evolution, J. Climate, 27, 3–26,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00720.1, 2014. a
Maher, N., Milinski, S., Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Botzet, M., Kornblueh, L., Takano, Y., Kröger, J., Ghosh, R., Hedemann, C., Li, C., Li, H., Manzini, E., Notz, D., Putrasahan, D., Boysen, L., Claussen, M., Ilyina, T., Olonscheck, D., Raddatz, T., Stevens, B., and Marotzke, J.: The Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble: enabling the exploration of climate system variability, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 11, 2050–2069, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001639, 2019. a
Mailier, P. J., Stephenson, D. B., Ferro, C. A., and Hodges, K. I.: Serial
clustering of extratropical cyclones, Mon. Weather Rev., 134,
2224–2240, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3160.1, 2006. a, b, c
Mann, M. E., Rahmstorf, S., Kornhuber, K., Steinman, B. A., Miller, S. K.,
Petri, S., and Coumou, D.: Projected changes in persistent extreme summer
weather events: The role of quasi-resonant amplification, Sci. Adv.,
4, eaat3272, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aat3272, 2018. a
Martineau, P., Chen, G., and Burrows, D. A.: Wave events: climatology, trends, and relationship to Northern Hemisphere winter blocking and weather extremes, J. Climate, 30, 5675–5697, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0692.1,
2017. a
Martínez-Alvarado, O., Maddison, J. W., Gray, S. L., and Williams, K. D.: Atmospheric blocking and upper-level Rossby-wave forecast skill dependence on model configuration, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 144, 2165–2181, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3326, 2018. a
Masato, G., Hoskins, B., and Woollings, T. J.: Wave-breaking characteristics
of midlatitude blocking, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 138, 1285–1296, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.990, 2012. a
Masato, G., Hoskins, B. J., and Woollings, T.: Wave-breaking characteristics of Northern Hemisphere winter blocking: A two-dimensional approach, J. Climate, 26, 4535–4549, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00240.1, 2013a. a, b
Masato, G., Hoskins, B. J., and Woollings, T.: Winter and summer Northern
Hemisphere blocking in CMIP5 models, J. Climate, 26, 7044–7059,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00466.1, 2013b. a, b, c
Masih, I., Maskey, S., Mussá, F. E. F., and Trambauer, P.: A review of droughts on the African continent: a geospatial and long-term perspective, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3635–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3635-2014, 2014. a
Matsueda, M.: Blocking predictability in operational medium-range ensemble
forecasts, Sola, 5, 113–116, https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2009-029, 2009. a, b
Matsueda, M.: Predictability of Euro-Russian blocking in summer of 2010,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L06801, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL046557, 2011. a, b
Matsueda, M. and Endo, H.: The robustness of future changes in Northern
Hemisphere blocking: A large ensemble projection with multiple sea surface
temperature patterns, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 5158–5166,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073336, 2017. a
Matsueda, M. and Palmer, T.: Estimates of flow-dependent predictability of
wintertime Euro-Atlantic weather regimes in medium-range forecasts,
Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 144, 1012–1027,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3265, 2018. a
Matsueda, M., Mizuta, R., and Kusunoki, S.: Future change in wintertime atmospheric blocking simulated using a 20-km-mesh atmospheric global circulation model, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 114, D12114, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD011919, 2009. a, b
Matthews, T., Murphy, C., Wilby, R. L., and Harrigan, S.: Stormiest winter on record for Ireland and UK, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 738–740,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2336, 2014. a
Meehl, G. A. and Tebaldi, C.: More Intense, More Frequent, and Longer Lasting
Heat Waves in the 21st Century, Science, 305, 994–997,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1098704, 2004. a, b
Merrifield, A. L., Simpson, I. R., McKinnon, K. A., Sippel, S., Xie, S.-P., and Deser, C.: Local and Nonlocal Land Surface Influence in European Heatwave Initial Condition Ensembles, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46,
14082–14092, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083945, 2019. a
Merz, R. and Bloschl, G.: A process typology of regional floods, Water
Resour. Res., 39, 1340, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002wr001952, 2003. a, b
Messori, G. and Caballero, R.: On double Rossby wave breaking in the North
Atlantic, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 11–129,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023854, 2015. a
Methven, J.: Potential vorticity in warm conveyor belt outflow, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 1065–1071, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2393, 2015. a
Miller, D. E. and Wang, Z.: Skillful seasonal prediction of Eurasian winter
blocking and extreme temperature frequency, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46,
11530–11538, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085035, 2019. a
Miralles, D. G., Gentine, P., Seneviratne, S. I., and Teuling, A. J.:
Land–atmospheric feedbacks during droughts and heatwaves: state of the
science and current challenges, Ann. NY Acad. Sci., 1436, 19–35, https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.13912, 2019. a
Mitchell, D., Heaviside, C., Vardoulakis, S., Huntingford, C., Masato, G.,
Guillod, B. P., Frumhoff, P., Bowery, A., Wallom, D., and Allen, M.:
Attributing human mortality during extreme heat waves to anthropogenic
climate change, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 074006,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074006, 2016. a
Mitchell, J. F., Lowe, J., Wood, R. A., and Vellinga, M.: Extreme events due to human-induced climate change, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A, 364, 2117–2133,
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2006.1816, 2006. a
Mohleji, S. and Pielke Jr., R.: Reconciliation of trends in global and regional economic losses from weather events: 1980–2008, Nat. Hazards Rev., 15, 04014009, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000141, 2014. a
Mohr, S., Wandel, J., Lenggenhager, S., and Martius, O.: Relationship between atmospheric blocking and warm-season thunderstorms over western and central Europe, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 145, 3040–3056, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3603, 2019. a, b, c
Mohr, S., Wilhelm, J., Wandel, J., Kunz, M., Portmann, R., Punge, H. J., Schmidberger, M., Quinting, J. F., and Grams, C. M.: The role of large-scale dynamics in an exceptional sequence of severe thunderstorms in Europe May–June 2018, Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 325–348, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-325-2020, 2020. a, b, c, d
Moore, R. W., Martius, O., and Spengler, T.: The modulation of the subtropical and extratropical atmosphere in the Pacific basin in response to the Madden–Julian oscillation, Mon. Weather Rev., 138, 2761–2779,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3194.1, 2010. a
Nabizadeh, E., Hassanzadeh, P., Yang, D., and Barnes, E. A.: Size of the
atmospheric blocking events: Scaling law and response to climate change,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 13488–13499,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084863, 2019. a, b
Nabizadeh, E., Lubis, S. W., and Hassanchanzadeh, P.: The 3D Structure of
Northern Hemisphere Blocking Events: Climatology, Role of Moisture, and
Response to Climate Change, J. Climate, 34, 9837–9860, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0141.1, 2021. a
Nakamura, H. and Wallace, J. M.: Observed Changes in Baroclinic Wave Activity during the Life Cycles of Low-Frequency Circulation Anomalies, J. Atmos. Sci., 47, 1100–1116, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1990)047<1100:OCIBWA>2.0.CO;2, 1989. a
Nakamura, N. and Huang, C. S. Y.: Atmospheric blocking as a traffic jam in the jet stream, Science, 361, 42–47, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aat0721, 2018. a, b, c, d
Namias, J.: Seasonal Persistence and Recurrence of European Blocking during
1958-1960, Tellus, 16, 394–407, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1964.tb00176.x, 1964. a, b
Ogi, M., Yamazaki, K., and Tachibana, Y.: The summer northern annular mode and abnormal summer weather in 2003, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L04706,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL021528, 2005. a, b
Olita, A., Sorgente, R., Natale, S., Gaberšek, S., Ribotti, A., Bonanno, A., and Patti, B.: Effects of the 2003 European heatwave on the Central Mediterranean Sea: surface fluxes and the dynamical response, Ocean Sci., 3, 273–289, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-3-273-2007, 2007. a
O'Reilly, C., Woollings, T., Zanna, L., and Weisheimer, A.: The impact of
tropical precipitation on summertime Euro-Atlantic circulation via a
circumglobal wave train, J. Climate, 31, 6481–6504,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0451.1, 2018. a
O'Reilly, C. H., Minobe, S., and Kuwano-Yoshida, A.: The influence of the
Gulf Stream on wintertime European blocking, Clim. Dynam., 47,
1545–1567, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2919-0, 2016. a
Parker, T., Woollings, T., and Weisheimer, A.: Ensemble sensitivity analysis of Greenland blocking in medium-range forecasts, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 144, 2358–2379, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3391, 2018. a, b
Pasquier, J. T., Pfahl, S., and Grams, C. M.: Modulation of Atmospheric River
Occurrence and Associated Precipitation Extremes in the North Atlantic
Region by European Weather Regimes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46,
1014–1023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl081194, 2019. a
Patterson, M., Bracegirdle, T., and Woollings, T.: Southern Hemisphere
atmospheric blocking in CMIP5 and future changes in the Australia-New
Zealand sector, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 9281–9290,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083264, 2019. a
Pelly, J. L. and Hoskins, B. J.: A new perspective on blocking, J.
Atmos. Sci., 60, 743–755,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2003)060<0743:ANPOB>2.0.CO;2, 2003a. a, b, c, d
Pelly, J. L. and Hoskins, B. J.: How well does the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System predict blocking?, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 129, 1683–1702, https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.01.173, 2003b. a
Péré, J. C., Bessagnet, B., Mallet, M., Waquet, F., Chiapello, I., Minvielle, F., Pont, V., and Menut, L.: Direct radiative effect of the Russian wildfires and its impact on air temperature and atmospheric dynamics during August 2010, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 1999–2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1999-2014, 2014. a
Perkins, S. E.: A review on the scientific understanding of heatwaves – Their measurement, driving mechanisms, and changes at the global scale, Atmos. Res., 164–165, 242–267, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.05.014, 2015. a
Perkins, S. E., Alexander, L. V., and Nairn, J. R.: Increasing frequency,
intensity and duration of observed global heatwaves and warm spells,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L20714, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053361, 2012. a
Petoukhov, V., Rahmstorf, S., Petri, S., and Schellnhuber, H. J.: Quasiresonant amplification of planetary waves and recent Northern Hemisphere weather extremes, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 110, 5336–5341,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222000110, 2013. a
Pfahl, S. and Wernli, H.: Quantifying the relevance of atmospheric blocking
for co-located temperature extremes in the Northern Hemisphere on
(sub-)daily time scales, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L12807,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052261, 2012. a, b, c
Pfahl, S., Schwierz, C., Croci-Maspoli, M., Grams, C. M., and Wernli, H.:
Importance of latent heat release in ascending air streams for atmospheric
blocking, Nat. Geosci., 8, 610–614, https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO2487, 2015. a
Pfister, C., Weingartner, R., and Luterbacher, J.: Hydrological winter droughts over the last 450 years in the Upper Rhine basin: a methodological approach, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 51, 966–985,
https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.51.5.966, 2006. a
Piaget, N., Froidevaux, P., Giannakaki, P., Gierth, F., Martius, O., Riemer, M., Wolf, G., and Grams, C. M.: Dynamics of a local Alpine flooding event in October 2011: moisture source and large-scale circulation, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 1922–1937, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2496, 2015. a, b, c, d, e, f
Pinto, J. G., Brücher, T., Fink, A. H., and Krüger, A.: Extraordinary snow accumulations over parts of central Europe during the winter of 2005/06 and
weather-related hazards, Weather, 62, 16–21, https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.19, 2007. a, b
Pinto, J. G., Ulbrich, S., Parodi, A., Rudari, R., Boni, G., and Ulbrich, U.:
Identification and ranking of extraordinary rainfall events over Northwest
Italy: The role of Atlantic moisture, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 2085–2097, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50179, 2013. a
Pinto, J. G., Gómara, I., Masato, G., Dacre, H. F., Woollings, T., and
Caballero, R.: Large-scale dynamics associated with clustering of
extratropical cyclones affecting Western Europe, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 119, 13–704, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022305, 2014. a, b, c, d
Pithan, F., Shepherd, T. G., Zappa, G., and Sandu, I.: Climate model biases in jet streams, blocking and storm tracks resulting from missing orographic
drag, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 7231–7240,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069551, 2016. a
Planchon, O., Quénol, H., Irimia, L., and Patriche, C.: European cold wave during February 2012 and impacts in wine growing regions of Moldavia
(Romania), Theor. Appl. Climatol., 120, 469–478,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1191-2, 2015. a, b
Plavcova, E. and Kysely, J.: Projected evolution of circulation types and their temperatures over Central Europe in climate models, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 114, 625–634, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-0874-4, 2013. a
Pope, R., Butt, E., Chipperfield, M., Doherty, R., Fenech, S., Schmidt, A.,
Arnold, S., and Savage, N.: The impact of synoptic weather on UK surface
ozone and implications for premature mortality, Environ. Res.
Lett., 11, 124004, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124004, 2016. a
Priestley, M. D., Pinto, J. G., Dacre, H. F., and Shaffrey, L. C.: The role of cyclone clustering during the stormy winter of 2013/2014, Weather, 72,
187–192, https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.3025, 2017. a, b, c
Quandt, L.-A., Keller, J. H., Martius, O., Pinto, J. G., and Jones, S. C.:
Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis of the Blocking System over Russia in Summer
2010, Mon. Weather Rev., 147, 657–675, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-18-0252.1,
2019. a, b, c
Quesada, B., Vautard, R., Yiou, P., Hirschi, M., and Seneviratne, S. I.:
Asymmetric European summer heat predictability from wet and dry southern
winters and springs, Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 736–741,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1536, 2012. a
Rahmstorf, S. and Coumou, D.: Increase of extreme events in a warming world,
P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 108, 17905–17909,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1101766108, 2011. a
Rahmstorf, S., Foster, G., and Cazenave, A.: Comparing climate projections to
observations up to 2011, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 044035,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044035, 2012. a
Raška, P.: Flood risk perception in Central-Eastern European members
states of the EU: a review, Nat. Hazards, 79, 2163–2179,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1929-x, 2015. a
Rex, D. F.: Blocking action in the middle troposphere and its effect upon
regional climate, Tellus, 2, 275–301,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1950.tb00339.x, 1950. a, b, c
Reynolds, D. D., Lupo, A. R., Jensen, A. D., and Market, P. S.: The
Predictability of Blocking Character in the Northern Hemisphere Using an
Ensemble Forecast System, Open Atmospheric Science Journal, 13, 3–17,
https://doi.org/10.2174/1874282301913010013, 2019. a
Rimbu, N., Stefan, S., Busuioc, A., and Georgescu, F.: Links between blocking
circulation and precipitation extremes over Romania in summer,
Int. J. Climatol., 36, 369–376, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4353, 2016. a, b
Robine, J.-M., Cheung, S. L. K., Le Roy, S., Van Oyen, H., Griffiths, C.,
Michel, J.-P., and Herrmann, F. R.: Death toll exceeded 70 000 in Europe
during the summer of 2003, C. R. Biol., 331, 171–178,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crvi.2007.12.001, 2008. a
Robinson, P. J.: On the definition of a heat wave, J. Appl. Meteorol., 40, 762–775, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(2001)040<0762:OTDOAH>2.0.CO;2, 2001. a
Rodrigues, R. R., Taschetto, A. S., Gupta, A. S., and Foltz, G. R.: Common
cause for severe droughts in South America and marine heatwaves in the
South Atlantic, Nat. Geosci., 12, 620–626,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0393-8, 2019. a
Rodwell, M. J., Magnusson, L., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Bonavita, M., Cardinali, C., Diamantakis, M., Earnshaw, P., Garcia-Mendez, A., Isaksen, L., Källén, E., Klocke, D., Lopez, P., McNally, T., Persson, A., Prates, F., and Wedi, N.: Characteristics of occasional poor medium-range weather forecasts for Europe, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 94, 1393–1405,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00099.1, 2013. a
Rohrer, M., Brönnimann, S., Martius, O., Raible, C. C., and Wild, M.:
Decadal variations of blocking and storm tracks in centennial reanalyses,
Tellus A, 71, 1586236,
https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2019.1586236, 2019. a, b, c
Röthlisberger, M. and Martius, O.: Quantifying the Local Effect of Northern
Hemisphere Atmospheric Blocks on the Persistence of Summer Hot and Dry
Spells, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 10101–10111,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083745, 2019. a, b
Röthlisberger, M., Pfahl, S., and Martius, O.: Regional-scale jet waviness
modulates the occurrence of midlatitude weather extremes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 10989–10997, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070944, 2016. a
Röthlisberger, M., Frossard, L., Bosart, L. F., Keyser, D., and Martius, O.: Recurrent Synoptic-Scale Rossby Wave Patterns and Their Effect on the
Persistence of Cold and Hot Spells, J. Climate, 32, 3207–3226,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0664.1, 2019. a
Rucińska, D.: Describing Storm Xaver in disaster terms, Int. J. Disast. Risk Re., 34, 147–153, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.11.012, 2019. a
Sánchez-Benítez, A., García-Herrera, R., Barriopedro, D., Sousa, P. M., and Trigo, R. M.: June 2017: the earliest European summer
mega-heatwave of Reanalysis Period, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45,
1955–1962, https://doi.org/10.1002/2018GL077253, 2018. a
Santos, J. A., Pinto, J. G., and Ulbrich, U.: On the development of strong
ridge episodes over the eastern North Atlantic, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L17804, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL039086, 2009. a, b
Santos, J. A., Pfahl, S., Pinto, J. G., and Wernli, H.: Mechanisms underlying temperature extremes in Iberia: a Lagrangian perspective, Tellus A, 67, 26032, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v67.26032, 2015. a, b
Scaife, A. A., Arribas, A., Blockley, E., Brookshaw, A., Clark, R.
T., Dunstone, N., Eade, R., Fereday, D., Folland, C. K., Gordon, M., Hermanson, L., Knight, J. R., Lea, D. J., MacLachlan, C., Maidens, A., Martin, M., Peterson, A. K., Smith, D., Vellinga, M., Wallace, E., Waters, J., and Williams, A.: Skillful long-range prediction of European and North American winters, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 2514–2519, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059637, 2014. a
Schalge, B., Blender, R., and Fraedrich, K.: Blocking detection based on synoptic filters, Adv. Meteorol., 2011, 717812, https://doi.org/10.1155/2011/717812,
2011. a
Schaller, N., Sillmann, J., Anstey, J., Fischer, E. M., Grams, C. M., and
Russo, S.: Influence of blocking on Northern European and Western
Russian heatwaves in large climate model ensembles, Environ. Res.
Lett., 13, 054015, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaba55, 2018. a, b, c, d
Schär, C., Vidale, P. L., Lüthi, D., Frei, C., Häberli, C., Liniger, M. A., and Appenzeller, C.: The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves, Nature, 427, 332–336,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02300, 2004. a
Scherrer, S. C. and Appenzeller, C.: Swiss Alpine snow pack variability:
major patterns and links to local climate and large-scale flow, Clim.
Res., 32, 187–199, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr032187, 2006. a
Scherrer, S. C., Croci-Maspoli, M., Schwierz, C., and Appenzeller, C.:
Two-dimensional indices of atmospheric blocking and their statistical
relationship with winter climate patterns in the Euro-Atlantic region,
Int. J. Climatol., 26, 233–249, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1250, 2006. a
Schiemann, R., Demory, M.-E., Shaffrey, L. C., Strachan, J., Vidale, P. L.,
Mizielinski, M. S., Roberts, M. J., Matsueda, M., Wehner, M. F., and Jung,
T.: The resolution sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere blocking in four
25-km atmospheric global circulation models, J. Climate, 30,
337–358, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0100.1, 2017. a
Schneidereit, A., Schubert, S., Vargin, P., Lunkeit, F., Zhu, X., Peters, D.
H. W., and Fraedrich, K.: Large-Scale Flow and the Long-Lasting Blocking
High over Russia: Summer 2010, Mon. Weather Rev., 140, 2967–2981,
https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00249.1, 2012. a, b
Schwierz, C., Croci-Maspoli, M., and Davies, H.: Perspicacious indicators of
atmospheric blocking, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L06125,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL019341, 2004. a, b
Screen, J. A.: Arctic amplification decreases temperature variance in northern mid-to high-latitudes, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 577–582,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2268, 2014. a
Seager, R., Kushnir, Y., Nakamura, J., Ting, M., and Naik, N.: Northern Hemisphere winter snow anomalies: ENSO, NAO and the winter of 2009/10, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L14703, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL043830, 2010. a, b, c
Seneviratne, S. I., Corti, T., Davin, E. L., Hirschi, M., Jaeger, E. B., Lehner, I., Orlowsky, B., and Teuling, A. J.: Investigating soil moisture–climate interactions in a changing climate: A review, Earth-Sci.
Rev., 99, 125–161, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2010.02.004, 2010. a
Ser-Giacomi, E., Vasile, R., Recuerda, I., Hernández-García, E., and
López, C.: Dominant transport pathways in an atmospheric blocking event, Chaos, 25, 087413, https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4928704, 2015. a
Shabbar, A., Huang, J., and Higuchi, K.: The relationship between the
wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and blocking episodes in the North
Atlantic, Int. J. Climatol., 21, 355–369,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.612, 2001. a, b, c
Shutts, G.: The propagation of eddies in diffluent jetstreams: Eddy vorticity
forcing of “blocking” flow fields, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 109, 737–761, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49710946204, 1983. a, b, c, d
Sillmann, J. and Croci-Maspoli, M.: Present and future atmospheric blocking
and its impact on European mean and extreme climate, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 36, L10702, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL038259, 2009. a, b
Sillmann, J., Croci-Maspoli, M., Kallache, M., and Katz, R. W.: Extreme cold
winter temperatures in Europe under the influence of North Atlantic
atmospheric blocking, J. Climate, 24, 5899–5913,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4075.1, 2011. a, b, c
Sousa, P. M., Trigo, R. M., Barriopedro, D., Soares, P. M. M., Ramos, A. M.,
and Liberato, M. L. R.: Responses of European precipitation distributions
and regimes to different blocking locations, Clim. Dynam., 48,
1141–1160, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3132-5, 2017. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j
Sousa, P. M., Barriopedro, D., García-Herrera, R., Ordóñez, C.,
Soares, P. M., and Trigo, R. M.: Distinct influences of large-scale
circulation and regional feedbacks in two exceptional 2019 European
heatwaves, Communications Earth & Environment, 1, 1–13,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-020-00048-9, 2020. a
Sparks, T. H. and Menzel, A.: Observed changes in seasons: an overview,
Int. J. Climatol., 22, 1715–1725, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.821, 2002. a
Sparnocchia, S., Schiano, M. E., Picco, P., Bozzano, R., and Cappelletti, A.: The anomalous warming of summer 2003 in the surface layer of the Central Ligurian Sea (Western Mediterranean), Ann. Geophys., 24, 443–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-24-443-2006, 2006. a
Spensberger, C., Madonna, E., Boettcher, M., Grams, C. M., Papritz, L.,
Quinting, J. F., Röthlisberger, M., Sprenger, M., and Zschenderlein, P.:
Dynamics of concurrent and sequential Central European and Scandinavian
heatwaves, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 2998–3013, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3822, 2020. a, b
Staneva, J., Wahle, K., Koch, W., Behrens, A., Fenoglio-Marc, L., and Stanev, E. V.: Coastal flooding: impact of waves on storm surge during extremes – a case study for the German Bight, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2373–2389, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2373-2016, 2016. a, b
Stefanon, M., D'Andrea, F., and Drobinski, P.: Heatwave classification over
Europe and the Mediterranean region, Environ. Res. Lett., 7,
014023, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014023, 2012. a
Steinfeld, D. and Pfahl, S.: The role of latent heating in atmospheric blocking dynamics: a global climatology, Clim. Dynam., 53, 6159–6180,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04919-6, 2019. a, b
Steinfeld, D., Boettcher, M., Forbes, R., and Pfahl, S.: The sensitivity of atmospheric blocking to upstream latent heating – numerical experiments, Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 405–426, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-405-2020, 2020. a
Stott, P. A., Christidis, N., Otto, F. E. L., Sun, Y., Vanderlinden, J.-P., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Vautard, R., von Storch, H., Walton, P., Yiou, P., and Zwiers, F. W.: Attribution of extreme weather and climate-related events, WIRES Climate Change, 7, 23–41, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.380, 2016. a
Stucki, P., Rickli, R., Bronnimann, S., Martius, O., Wanner, H., Grebner, D., and Luterbacher, J.: Weather patterns and hydro-climatological precursors of extreme floods in Switzerland since 1868, Meteorol. Z., 21,
531–550, https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2012/368, 2012. a, b, c
Stucki, P., Bandhauer, M., Heikkilä, U., Rössler, O., Zappa, M., Pfister, L., Salvisberg, M., Froidevaux, P., Martius, O., Panziera, L., and Brönnimann, S.: Reconstruction and simulation of an extreme flood event in the Lago Maggiore catchment in 1868, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2717–2739, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2717-2018, 2018. a
Swain, D. L., Singh, D., Touma, D., and Diffenbaugh, N. S.: Attributing
extreme events to climate change: A new frontier in a warming world, One
Earth, 2, 522–527, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2020.05.011, 2020. a
Swanson, K. L.: Dynamical aspects of extratropical tropospheric low-frequency
variability, J. Climate, 15, 2145–2162,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2145:DAOETL>2.0.CO;2, 2002. a
Tayanc, M., Karaca, M., and Dalfes, H. N.: March 1987 cyclone (blizzard) over
the eastern Mediterranean and Balkan region associated with blocking,
Mon. Weather Rev., 126, 3036–3047, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<3036:Mcbote>2.0.Co;2, 1998. a, b, c
Tibaldi, S. and Molteni, F.: On the operational predictability of blocking,
Tellus A, 42, 343–365, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v42i3.11882, 1990. a, b, c
Tomczyk, A. M. and Bednorz, E.: Heat waves in Central Europe and their
circulation conditions, Int. J. Climatol., 36, 770–782,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4381, 2016. a
Tramblay, Y., Koutroulis, A., Samaniego, L., Vicente-Serrano, V., Volaire, F., Boone, A., Le Page, M., Llasat, M. C., Albergel, C., Burak, S., Cailleret, M., Kalic, K., Dupuy, J.-L., Greve, P., Grillakis, M., Hanich, L., Jarlan, L., Martin, N., Martinez-Vilalta, J., Mouillot, F., Pulido-Velazquez, D., Quintana-Segui, P., Renard, D., Turco, M., Türkes, M., Trigo, R., Vidal, J.-P., and Villagrosa, R.: Challenges for drought assessment in the Mediterranean region under future climate scenarios, Earth-Sci. Rev., 210, 103348, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103348, 2020. a
Trenberth, K. E. and Fasullo, J. T.: Climate extremes and climate change: The
Russian heat wave and other climate extremes of 2010, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D17103, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD018020, 2012. a, b
Trigo, R. M., Trigo, I. F., DaCamara, C. C., and Osborn, T. J.: Climate impact of the European winter blocking episodes from the NCEP/NCAR
Reanalyses, Clim. Dynam., 23, 17–28, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-004-0410-4,
2004. a, b, c, d
Tung, K. K. and Lindzen, R.: A theory of stationary long waves. Part I: A
simple theory of blocking, Mon. Weather Rev., 107, 714–734,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1979)107<0714:ATOSLW>2.0.CO;2, 1979. a
Tyrlis, E. and Hoskins, B.: Aspects of a Northern Hemisphere atmospheric
blocking climatology, J. Atmos. Sci., 65, 1638–1652,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JAS2337.1, 2008. a, b, c
van Garderen, L., Feser, F., and Shepherd, T. G.: A methodology for attributing the role of climate change in extreme events: a global spectrally nudged storyline, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 171–186, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-171-2021, 2021. a
Vieno, M., Dore, A. J., Stevenson, D. S., Doherty, R., Heal, M. R., Reis, S., Hallsworth, S., Tarrason, L., Wind, P., Fowler, D., Simpson, D., and Sutton, M. A.: Modelling surface ozone during the 2003 heat-wave in the UK, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 7963–7978, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-7963-2010, 2010. a
Vitart, F., Balsamo, G., Buizza, R., Ferranti, L., Keeley, S., Magnusson, L., Molenti, F., and Weisheimer, A.: Sub-seasonal predictions, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, https://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/elibrary/2014/12943-sub-seasonal-predictions.pdf (last access: 20 June 2021), 2014. a
Wachowicz, L. J., Preece, J. R., Mote, T. L., Barrett, B. S., and Henderson,
G. R.: Historical trends of seasonal Greenland blocking under different
blocking metrics, Int. J. Climatol., 41, E3263–E3278,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6923, 2021. a
Wang, C., Liu, H., and Lee, S.-K.: The record-breaking cold temperatures
during the winter of 2009/2010 in the Northern Hemisphere, Atmos.
Sci. Lett., 11, 161–168, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.278, 2010. a, b, c
Wang, L. and Kuang, Z.: Evidence against a general positive eddy feedback in
atmospheric blocking, arXiv [preprint], arXiv:1907.00999, 1 July 2019. a
Wanner, H., Brönnimann, S., Casty, C., Gyalistras, D., Luterbacher, J.,
Schmutz, C., Stephenson, D. B., and Xoplaki, E.: North Atlantic
Oscillation–concepts and studies, Surv. Geophys., 22, 321–381,
https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1014217317898, 2001. a
Webber, C. P., Dacre, H. F., Collins, W. J., and Masato, G.: The dynamical impact of Rossby wave breaking upon UK PM10 concentration, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 867–881, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-867-2017, 2017. a
Weber, J., Reyers, M., Beck, C., Timme, M., Pinto, J. G., Witthaut, D., and
Schäfer, B.: Wind power persistence characterized by Superstatistics,
Sci. Rep., 9, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-56286-1, 2019. a, b
Webster, P., Toma, V. E., and Kim, H.-M.: Were the 2010 Pakistan floods predictable?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L04806, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL046346, 2011. a
Weijenborg, C., de Vries, H., and Haarsma, R. J.: On the direction of Rossby wave breaking in blocking, Clim. Dynam., 39, 2823–2831,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1332-1, 2012. a
Whan, K., Zwiers, F., and Sillmann, J.: The influence of atmospheric blocking on extreme winter minimum temperatures in North America, J. Climate, 29, 4361–4381, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0493.1, 2016. a
Witte, J. C., Douglass, A. R., da Silva, A., Torres, O., Levy, R., and Duncan, B. N.: NASA A-Train and Terra observations of the 2010 Russian wildfires, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 9287–9301, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-9287-2011, 2011. a
WMO: Assessment of the Observed Extreme Conditions during Late Boreal Winter 2011/2012, WCDMP 80. Publications Board: Geneva, Switzerland, https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=14504#.YZqCRk6ZOUk (last access: 19 June 2021), 2015. a
Woollings, T., Hoskins, B., Blackburn, M., and Berrisford, P.: A new Rossby
wave–breaking interpretation of the North Atlantic Oscillation, J. Atmos. Sci., 65, 609–626, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JAS2347.1, 2008. a
Woollings, T., Charlton-Perez, A., Ineson, S., Marshall, A., and Masato, G.:
Associations between stratospheric variability and tropospheric blocking,
J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 115, D06108, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012742, 2010. a
Wulff, C. O. and Domeisen, D. I. V.: Higher Subseasonal Predictability of
Extreme Hot European Summer Temperatures as Compared to Average Summers,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 11520–11529, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084314, 2019. a
Yao, Y. and De-Hai, L.: The Anomalous European Climates Linked to Different Euro-Atlantic Blocking, Atmos. Ocean. Sci. Lett., 7, 309–313, https://doi.org/10.3878/j.issn.1674-2834.14.0001, 2014. a, b
Yessimbet, K., Ossó, A., Kaltenberger, R., Magnusson, L., and Steiner, A.:
Heavy Alpine snowfall in January 2019 connected to atmospheric blocking,
Weather, 77, 7–15, https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.4020, 2022. a, b
Zscheischler, J., Westra, S., van den Hurk, B. J. J. M., Seneviratne, S. I., Ward, P. J., Pitman, A., AghaKouchak, A., Bresch, D. N., Leonard, M., Wahl, T., and Zhang, X.: Future climate risk from compound events, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 469–477, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0156-3, 2018. a
Zscheischler, J., Martius, O., Westra, S., Bevacqua, E., Raymond, C., Horton, R. M., van den Hurk, B., AghaKouchak, A., Jézéquel, A., Mahecha, M. D., Maraun, D., Ramos, A. M., Ridder, N. N., Thiery, W., and Vignotto, E.: A typology of compound weather and climate events, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 1, 333–347, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-0060-z, 2020. a, b, c
Zschenderlein, P., Fragkoulidis, G., Fink, A. H., and Wirth, V.: Large-scale
Rossby wave and synoptic-scale dynamic analyses of the unusually late 2016
heatwave over Europe, Weather, 73, 275–283, https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.3278, 2018. a
Zschenderlein, P., Fink, A. H., Pfahl, S., and Wernli, H.: Processes
determining heat waves across different European climates, Q.
J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 145, 2973–2989,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3599, 2019.
a, b
Zschenderlein, P., Pfahl, S., Wernli, H., and Fink, A. H.: A Lagrangian analysis of upper-tropospheric anticyclones associated with heat waves in Europe, Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 191–206, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-191-2020, 2020. a
Short summary
Atmospheric blocking is associated with stationary, self-sustaining and long-lasting high-pressure systems. They can cause or at least influence surface weather extremes, such as heat waves, cold spells, heavy precipitation events, droughts or wind extremes. The location of the blocking determines where and what type of extreme event will occur. These relationships are also important for weather prediction and may change due to global warming.
Atmospheric blocking is associated with stationary, self-sustaining and long-lasting...
