Articles | Volume 5, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-537-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-537-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
19 Apr 2024
Research article |
| 19 Apr 2024
| 19 Apr 2024
Warm conveyor belt characteristics and impacts along the life cycle of extratropical cyclones: case studies and climatological analysis based on ERA5
Katharina Heitmann
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Michael Sprenger
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Hanin Binder
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Heini Wernli
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Hanna Joos
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
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Stefano Ubbiali, Christian Kühnlein, Christoph Schär, Linda Schlemmer, Thomas C. Schulthess, Michael Staneker, and Heini Wernli
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-92, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-92, 2024
Preprint under review for GMD
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We explore a high-level programming model for GPU porting of NWP model codes, based on the Python domain-specific library GT4Py. We present a Python rewrite with GT4Py of the ECMWF cloud microphysics scheme and the associated tangent-linear and adjoint algorithms. We find excellent portability, competitive performance and robust execution on diverse CPU and GPU architectures. The additional advantages in terms of maintainability, productivity and readability are also highlighted.
Philip Rupp, Jonas Spaeth, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Dominik Büeler, Michael Sprenger, and Thomas Birner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1423, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1423, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
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We quantify that the occurrence of strong synoptic storms contributes about 20 % to the uncertainty in subseasonal geopotential height forecasts over Northern Europe. We further show that the storm activity over the Atlantic is reduced and shifted southward following sudden stratospheric warming events, leading to a reduction in Northern European forecast uncertainty.
Luise J. Fischer, David N. Bresch, Dominik Büeler, Christian M. Grams, Matthias Röthlisberger, and Heini Wernli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1253, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1253, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
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Atmospheric flows over the North Atlantic can be meaningfully classified into weather regimes, and climate simulations suggest that the regime frequencies might change in the future. We provide a quantitative framework that helps assessing whether these regime frequency changes are relevant for understanding climate change signals in precipitation. At least in our example application, this is not the case, i.e., regime frequency changes explain little of the projected precipitation changes.
Stephanie Mayer, Martin Hendrick, Adrien Michel, Bettina Richter, Jürg Schweizer, Heini Wernli, and Alec van Herwijnen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1026, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1026, 2024
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Understanding the impact of climate change on snow avalanche activity is crucial for safeguarding lives and infrastructure. Here, we project changes in avalanche activity in the Swiss Alps throughout the 21st century. Our findings reveal elevation-dependent patterns of change, indicating a decrease in dry-snow avalanches alongside an increase in wet-snow avalanches at elevations above the current tree line. These results underscore the necessity to revisit measures for avalanche risk mitigation.
Katharina Hartmuth, Heini Wernli, and Lukas Papritz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-878, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-878, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
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In this study, we use large-ensemble climate model simulations to analyze extreme winters in the Barents Sea in a changing climate. We find that variability in both atmospheric processes and sea ice conditions determines the formation of such seasons in the present-day climate. The reduction in sea ice variability results in a decreasing importance of surface boundary conditions in a warmer climate, while the robust link shown for surface weather systems persists.
Lukas Jansing, Lukas Papritz, and Michael Sprenger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 463–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-463-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-463-2024, 2024
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Using an innovative approach, the descent of foehn is diagnosed from a Lagrangian perspective based on 15 kilometer-scale simulations combined with online trajectories. The descent is confined to distinct hotspots in the immediate lee of local mountain peaks and chains. Two detailed case studies reveal a varying wave regime to be associated with the descent. Furthermore, additional controlling factors, such as the diurnal cycle, likewise influence the descent activity.
Alexander Scherrmann, Heini Wernli, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 419–438, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-419-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-419-2024, 2024
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We show that the formation of Mediterranean cyclones follows the presence of cyclones over the North Atlantic. The distinct regions of cyclone activity in the Mediterranean in the different seasons can be linked to the atmospheric state, in particular the position of the polar jet over the North Atlantic. With this we now better understand the processes that lead to the formation of Mediterranean cyclones. We used a novel simulation framework in which we directly show and probe this connection.
Esther S. Breuninger, Julie Tolu, Iris Thurnherr, Franziska Aemisegger, Aryeh Feinberg, Sylvain Bouchet, Jeroen E. Sonke, Véronique Pont, Heini Wernli, and Lenny H. E. Winkel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2491–2510, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2491-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2491-2024, 2024
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Atmospheric deposition is an important source of selenium (Se) and other health-relevant trace elements in surface environments. We found that the variability in elemental concentrations in atmospheric deposition reflects not only changes in emission sources but also weather conditions during atmospheric removal. Depending on the sources and if Se is derived more locally or from further away, the Se forms can be different, affecting the bioavailability of Se atmospherically supplied to soils.
Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Dominik Büeler, C. Ole Wulff, Michael Sprenger, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 231–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-231-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-231-2024, 2024
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The stratosphere is a layer of Earth's atmosphere found above the weather systems. Changes in the stratosphere can affect the winds and the storm tracks in the North Atlantic region for a relatively long time, lasting for several weeks and even months. We show that the stratosphere can be important for weather forecasts beyond 1 week, but more work is needed to improve the accuracy of these forecasts for 3–4 weeks.
Yonatan Givon, Or Hess, Emmanouil Flaounas, Jennifer Louise Catto, Michael Sprenger, and Shira Raveh-Rubin
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 133–162, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-133-2024, 2024
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A novel classification of Mediterranean cyclones is presented, enabling a separation between storms driven by different atmospheric processes. The surface impact of each cyclone class differs greatly by precipitation, winds, and temperatures, providing an invaluable tool to study the climatology of different types of Mediterranean storms and enhancing the understanding of their predictability, on both weather and climate scales.
Julian F. Quinting, Christian M. Grams, Edmund Kar-Man Chang, Stephan Pfahl, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 65–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-65-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-65-2024, 2024
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Research in the last few decades has revealed that rapidly ascending airstreams in extratropical cyclones have an important effect on the evolution of downstream weather and predictability. In this study, we show that the occurrence of these airstreams over the North Pacific is modulated by tropical convection. Depending on the modulation, known atmospheric circulation patterns evolve quite differently, which may affect extended-range predictions in the Atlantic–European region.
Stefania Gilardoni, Dominic Heslin-Rees, Mauro Mazzola, Vito Vitale, Michael Sprenger, and Radovan Krejci
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15589–15607, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15589-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15589-2023, 2023
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Models still fail in reproducing black carbon (BC) temporal variability in the Arctic. Analysis of equivalent BC concentrations in the European Arctic shows that BC seasonal variability is modulated by the efficiency of removal by precipitation during transport towards high latitudes. Short-term variability is controlled by synoptic-scale circulation patterns. The advection of warm air from lower latitudes is an effective pollution transport pathway during summer.
Ellina Agayar, Franziska Aemisegger, Moshe Armon, Alexander Scherrmann, and Heini Wernli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2594, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2594, 2023
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This study presents the results of a climatological investigation of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in Ukraine for the period 1979–2019. During all seasons EPEs are associated with pronounced upper-level PV anomalies. In addition, we find distinct seasonal and regional differences in moisture sources. Several extreme precipitation cases demonstrate the importance of these processes, complemented by a detailed synoptical analysis.
Leonie Villiger, Marina Dütsch, Sandrine Bony, Marie Lothon, Stephan Pfahl, Heini Wernli, Pierre-Etienne Brilouet, Patrick Chazette, Pierre Coutris, Julien Delanoë, Cyrille Flamant, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Martin Werner, and Franziska Aemisegger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14643–14672, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14643-2023, 2023
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This study evaluates three numerical simulations performed with an isotope-enabled weather forecast model and investigates the coupling between shallow trade-wind cumulus clouds and atmospheric circulations on different scales. We show that the simulations reproduce key characteristics of shallow trade-wind clouds as observed during the field experiment EUREC4A and that the spatial distribution of stable-water-vapour isotopes is shaped by the overturning circulation associated with these clouds.
Heini Wernli and Suzanne L. Gray
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2678, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2678, 2023
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This review provides a historic overview of research on how diabatic processes influence extratropical weather systems. We highlight that the combination of complementary research approaches – field experiments, diagnostics, numerical model experiments, potential vorticity theory, and consideration of climate change – was essential for reaching a new level of understanding where the interplay of dry dynamics with diabatic processes is considered as central to the field.
Thomas Trickl, Martin Adelwart, Dina Khordakova, Ludwig Ries, Christian Rolf, Michael Sprenger, Wolfgang Steinbrecht, and Hannes Vogelmann
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 5145–5165, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-5145-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-5145-2023, 2023
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Tropospheric ozone have been measured for more than a century. Highly quantitative ozone measurements have been made at monitoring stations. However, deficits have been reported for vertical sounding systems. Here, we report a thorough intercomparison effort between a differential-absorption lidar system and two types of balloon-borne ozone sondes, also using ozone sensors at nearby mountain sites as references. The sondes agree very well with the lidar after offset corrections.
Elena De La Torre Castro, Tina Jurkat-Witschas, Armin Afchine, Volker Grewe, Valerian Hahn, Simon Kirschler, Martina Krämer, Johannes Lucke, Nicole Spelten, Heini Wernli, Martin Zöger, and Christiane Voigt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13167–13189, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13167-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13167-2023, 2023
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In this study, we show the differences in the microphysical properties between high-latitude (HL) cirrus and mid-latitude (ML) cirrus over the Arctic, North Atlantic, and central Europe during summer. The in situ measurements are combined with backward trajectories to investigate the influence of the region on cloud formation. We show that HL cirrus are characterized by a lower concentration of larger ice crystals when compared to ML cirrus.
Melanie Lauer, Annette Rinke, Irina Gorodetskaya, Michael Sprenger, Mario Mech, and Susanne Crewell
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8705–8726, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8705-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8705-2023, 2023
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We present a new method to analyse the influence of atmospheric rivers (ARs), cyclones, and fronts on the precipitation in the Arctic, based on two campaigns: ACLOUD (early summer 2017) and AFLUX (early spring 2019). There are differences between both campaign periods: in early summer, the precipitation is mostly related to ARs and fronts, especially when they are co-located, while in early spring, cyclones isolated from ARs and fronts contributed most to the precipitation.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Leonardo Aragão, Lisa Bernini, Stavros Dafis, Benjamin Doiteau, Helena Flocas, Suzanne L. Gray, Alexia Karwat, John Kouroutzoglou, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Florian Pantillon, Claudia Pasquero, Platon Patlakas, María Ángeles Picornell, Federico Porcù, Matthew D. K. Priestley, Marco Reale, Malcolm J. Roberts, Hadas Saaroni, Dor Sandler, Enrico Scoccimarro, Michael Sprenger, and Baruch Ziv
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 639–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023, 2023
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Cyclone detection and tracking methods (CDTMs) have different approaches in defining and tracking cyclone centers. This leads to disagreements on extratropical cyclone climatologies. We present a new approach that combines tracks from individual CDTMs to produce new composite tracks. These new tracks are shown to correspond to physically meaningful systems with distinctive life stages.
Mark J. Rodwell and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 591–615, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-591-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-591-2023, 2023
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Midlatitude storms and their downstream impacts have a major impact on society, yet their prediction is especially prone to uncertainty. While this can never be fully eliminated, we find that the initial rate of growth of uncertainty varies for a range of forecast models. Examination of the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suggests ways in which uncertainty growth could be reduced, leading to sharper and more reliable forecasts over the first few days.
Mauro Hermann, Matthias Röthlisberger, Arthur Gessler, Andreas Rigling, Cornelius Senf, Thomas Wohlgemuth, and Heini Wernli
Biogeosciences, 20, 1155–1180, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1155-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1155-2023, 2023
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This study examines the multi-annual meteorological history of low-forest-greenness events in Europe's temperate and Mediterranean biome in 2002–2022. We systematically identify anomalies in temperature, precipitation, and weather systems as event precursors, with noteworthy differences between the two biomes. We also quantify the impact of the most extensive event in 2022 (37 % coverage), underlining the importance of understanding the forest–meteorology interaction in a changing climate.
Alexander Scherrmann, Heini Wernli, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 157–173, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-157-2023, 2023
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We investigate the dynamical origin of the lower-atmospheric potential vorticity (PV; linked to the intensity of cyclones) in Mediterranean cyclones. We quantify the contribution of the cyclone and the environment by tracing PV backward in time and space and linking it to the track of the cyclone. We find that the lower-tropospheric PV is produced shortly before the cyclone's stage of highest intensity. We investigate the driving processes and use a global dataset and a process-resolving one.
Hanna Joos, Michael Sprenger, Hanin Binder, Urs Beyerle, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 133–155, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-133-2023, 2023
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Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are strongly ascending, cloud- and precipitation-forming airstreams in extratropical cyclones. In this study we assess their representation in a climate simulation and their changes under global warming. They become moister, become more intense, and reach higher altitudes in a future climate, implying that they potentially have an increased impact on the mid-latitude flow.
Andreas Schäfler, Michael Sprenger, Heini Wernli, Andreas Fix, and Martin Wirth
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 999–1018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-999-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-999-2023, 2023
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In this study, airborne lidar profile measurements of H2O and O3 across a midlatitude jet stream are combined with analyses in tracer–trace space and backward trajectories. We highlight that transport and mixing processes in the history of the observed air masses are governed by interacting tropospheric weather systems on synoptic timescales. We show that these weather systems play a key role in the high variability of the paired H2O and O3 distributions near the tropopause.
Hanin Binder, Hanna Joos, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 19–37, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-19-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-19-2023, 2023
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Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are the main cloud- and precipitation-producing airstreams in extratropical cyclones. The latent heat release that occurs during cloud formation often contributes to the intensification of the associated cyclone. Based on the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble coupled climate simulations, we show that WCBs and associated latent heating will become stronger in a future climate and be even more important for explosive cyclone intensification than in the present.
Michael A. Barnes, Thando Ndarana, Michael Sprenger, and Willem A. Landman
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1291–1309, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1291-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1291-2022, 2022
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Stratospheric air can intrude into the troposphere and is associated with cyclonic development throughout the atmosphere. Through a highly idealized systematic approach, the effect that different intrusion characteristics have on surface cyclogenetic forcing is investigated. The proximity of stratospheric intrusions to the surface is shown to be the main factor in surface cyclogenetic forcing, whilst its width is an additional contributing factor.
Lukas Jansing, Lukas Papritz, Bruno Dürr, Daniel Gerstgrasser, and Michael Sprenger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1113–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1113-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1113-2022, 2022
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This study presents a 5-year climatology of three main foehn types and three deep-foehn subtypes. The main types differ in their large-scale and Alpine-scale weather conditions and the subtypes in terms of the amount and extent of precipitation on the Alpine south side. The different types of foehn are found to strongly affect the local meteorological conditions at Altdorf. The study concludes by setting the new classification into a historic context.
Andries Jan de Vries, Franziska Aemisegger, Stephan Pfahl, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 8863–8895, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8863-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8863-2022, 2022
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The Earth's water cycle contains the common H2O molecule but also the less abundant, heavier HDO. We use their different physical properties to study tropical ice clouds in model simulations of the West African monsoon. Isotope signals reveal different processes through which ice clouds form and decay in deep-convective and widespread cirrus. Previously observed variations in upper-tropospheric vapour isotopes are explained by microphysical processes in convective updraughts and downdraughts.
Philipp Zschenderlein and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 391–411, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-391-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-391-2022, 2022
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Precipitation and temperature are two of the most important variables describing our weather and climate. The relationship between these variables has been studied extensively; however, the role of specific weather systems in shaping this relationship has not been analysed yet. We therefore analyse whether intense precipitation occurs on warmer or on colder days and identify the relevant weather systems. In general, weather systems strongly influence this relationship, especially in winter.
Jan Clemens, Felix Ploeger, Paul Konopka, Raphael Portmann, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3841–3860, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3841-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3841-2022, 2022
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Highly polluted air flows from the surface to higher levels of the atmosphere during the Asian summer monsoon. At high levels, the air is trapped within eddies. Here, we study how air masses can leave the eddy within its cutoff, how they distribute, and how their chemical composition changes. We found evidence for transport from the eddy to higher latitudes over the North Pacific and even Alaska. During transport, trace gas concentrations within cutoffs changed gradually, showing steady mixing.
Jörg Wieder, Claudia Mignani, Mario Schär, Lucie Roth, Michael Sprenger, Jan Henneberger, Ulrike Lohmann, Cyril Brunner, and Zamin A. Kanji
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3111–3130, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3111-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3111-2022, 2022
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We investigate the variation in ice-nucleating particles (INPs) relevant for primary ice formation in mixed-phased clouds over the Alps based on simultaneous in situ observations at a mountaintop and a nearby high valley (1060 m height difference). In most cases, advection from the surrounding lower regions was responsible for changes in INP concentration, causing a diurnal cycle at the mountaintop. Our study underlines the importance of the planetary boundary layer as an INP reserve.
Lukas Bösiger, Michael Sprenger, Maxi Boettcher, Hanna Joos, and Tobias Günther
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1079–1096, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1079-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1079-2022, 2022
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Jet streams are coherent air flows that interact with atmospheric structures such as warm conveyor belts (WCBs) and the tropopause. Individually, these structures have a significant impact on the weather evolution. A first step towards a deeper understanding of the meteorological processes is to extract jet stream core lines, for which we develop a novel feature extraction algorithm. Based on the line geometry, we automatically detect and visualize potential interactions between WCBs and jets.
Katharina Hartmuth, Maxi Boettcher, Heini Wernli, and Lukas Papritz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 89–111, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-89-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-89-2022, 2022
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In this study, we introduce a novel method to objectively define and identify extreme Arctic seasons based on different surface variables. We find that such seasons are resulting from various combinations of unusual seasonal conditions. The occurrence or absence of different atmospheric processes strongly affects the character of extreme Arctic seasons. Further, changes in sea ice and sea surface temperature can strongly influence the formation of such a season in distinct regions.
Leonie Villiger, Heini Wernli, Maxi Boettcher, Martin Hagen, and Franziska Aemisegger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 59–88, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-59-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-59-2022, 2022
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The coupling between the large-scale atmospheric circulation and the clouds in the trade-wind region is complex and not yet fully understood. In this study, the formation pathway of two anomalous cloud layers over Barbados during the field campaign EUREC4A is described. The two case studies highlight the influence of remote weather systems on the local environmental conditions in Barbados.
Philipp Zschenderlein and Heini Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-396, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-396, 2022
Preprint withdrawn
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In early January 2021, Spain was affected by two extreme events – an unusually long cold spell and a heavy snowfall event associated with extratropical cyclone Filomena. In the study, we analyse the synoptic-dynamic development of the two extreme events. Cold air from the north was advected towards Spain and between 07 and 10 January, cyclone Filomena was responsible for major parts of the snowfall event. During this event, temperature and moisture contrasts accross Spain were very high.
Roman Attinger, Elisa Spreitzer, Maxi Boettcher, Heini Wernli, and Hanna Joos
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1073–1091, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1073-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1073-2021, 2021
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Diabatic processes affect the development of extratropical cyclones. This work provides a systematic assessment of the diabatic processes that modify potential vorticity (PV) in model simulations. PV is primarily produced by condensation and convection. Given favorable environmental conditions, long-wave radiative cooling and turbulence become the primary process at the cold and warm fronts, respectively. Turbulence and long-wave radiative heating produce negative PV anomalies at the fronts.
Fabienne Dahinden, Franziska Aemisegger, Heini Wernli, Matthias Schneider, Christopher J. Diekmann, Benjamin Ertl, Peter Knippertz, Martin Werner, and Stephan Pfahl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16319–16347, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16319-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16319-2021, 2021
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We use high-resolution numerical isotope modelling and Lagrangian backward trajectories to identify moisture transport pathways and governing physical and dynamical processes that affect the free-tropospheric humidity and isotopic variability over the eastern subtropical North Atlantic. Furthermore, we conduct a thorough isotope modelling validation with aircraft and remote-sensing observations of water vapour isotopes.
Philippe Besson, Luise J. Fischer, Sebastian Schemm, and Michael Sprenger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 991–1009, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-991-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-991-2021, 2021
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The strongest cyclone intensification is associated with a strong dry-dynamical forcing. Moreover, strong forcing and strong intensification correspond to a tendency for poleward cyclone propagation, which occurs in distinct regions in the Northern Hemisphere. There is a clear spatial pattern in the occurrence of certain forcing combinations. This implies a fundamental relationship between dry-dynamical processes and the intensification as well as the propagation of extratropical cyclones.
Raphael Portmann, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 507–534, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-507-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-507-2021, 2021
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We explore the three-dimensional life cycle of cyclonic structures
(so-called PV cutoffs) near the tropopause. PV cutoffs are frequent weather systems in the extratropics that lead to high-impact weather. However, many unknowns exist regarding their evolution. We present a new method to track PV cutoffs as 3D objects in reanalysis data by following air parcels along the flow. We study the climatological life cycles of PV cutoffs in detail and propose a classification into three types.
Iris Thurnherr, Katharina Hartmuth, Lukas Jansing, Josué Gehring, Maxi Boettcher, Irina Gorodetskaya, Martin Werner, Heini Wernli, and Franziska Aemisegger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 331–357, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-331-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-331-2021, 2021
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Extratropical cyclones are important for the transport of moisture from low to high latitudes. In this study, we investigate how the isotopic composition of water vapour is affected by horizontal temperature advection associated with extratropical cyclones using measurements and modelling. It is shown that air–sea moisture fluxes induced by this horizontal temperature advection lead to the strong variability observed in the isotopic composition of water vapour in the marine boundary layer.
Maxi Boettcher, Andreas Schäfler, Michael Sprenger, Harald Sodemann, Stefan Kaufmann, Christiane Voigt, Hans Schlager, Donato Summa, Paolo Di Girolamo, Daniele Nerini, Urs Germann, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5477–5498, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5477-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5477-2021, 2021
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Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are important airstreams in extratropical cyclones, often leading to the formation of intense precipitation. We present a case study that involves aircraft, lidar and radar observations of water and clouds in a WCB ascending from western Europe across the Alps towards the Baltic Sea during the field campaigns HyMeX and T-NAWDEX-Falcon in October 2012. A probabilistic trajectory measure and an airborne tracer experiment were used to confirm the long pathway of the WCB.
Franziska Aemisegger, Raphaela Vogel, Pascal Graf, Fabienne Dahinden, Leonie Villiger, Friedhelm Jansen, Sandrine Bony, Bjorn Stevens, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 281–309, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-281-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-281-2021, 2021
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The interaction of clouds in the trade wind region with the atmospheric flow is complex and at the heart of uncertainties associated with climate projections. In this study, a natural tracer of atmospheric circulation is used to establish a link between air originating from dry regions of the midlatitudes and the occurrence of specific cloud patterns. Two pathways involving transport within midlatitude weather systems are identified, by which air is brought into the trades within 5–10 d.
Melissa L. Breeden, Amy H. Butler, John R. Albers, Michael Sprenger, and Andrew O'Neil Langford
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 2781–2794, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2781-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2781-2021, 2021
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Prior research has found a maximum in deep stratosphere-to-troposphere mass/ozone transport over the western United States in boreal spring, which can enhance surface ozone concentrations, reducing air quality. We find that the winter-to-summer evolution of the north Pacific jet increases the frequency of stratospheric intrusions that drive transport, helping explain the observed maximum. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation affects the timing of the spring jet transition and therefore transport.
Annika Oertel, Michael Sprenger, Hanna Joos, Maxi Boettcher, Heike Konow, Martin Hagen, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 89–110, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-89-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-89-2021, 2021
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Convection embedded in the stratiform cloud band of strongly ascending airstreams in extratropical cyclones (so-called warm conveyor belts) can influence not only surface precipitation but also the
upper-tropospheric potential vorticity (PV) and waveguide. The comparison of intense vs. moderate embedded convection shows that its strength alone is not a reliable measure for upper-tropospheric PV modification. Instead, characteristics of the ambient flow co-determine its dynamical significance.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Matthias Röthlisberger, Maxi Boettcher, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 71–88, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-71-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-71-2021, 2021
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In this study we identify the wettest seasons globally and address their meteorological characteristics. We show that in different regions the wettest seasons occur in different times of the year and result from either unusually high frequencies of wet days and/or daily extremes. These high frequencies can be largely attributed to four specific weather systems, especially cyclones. Our analysis uses a thoroughly explained, novel methodology that could also be applied to climate models.
Sebastian Schemm, Heini Wernli, and Hanin Binder
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 55–69, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-55-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-55-2021, 2021
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North Pacific cyclone intensities are reduced in winter, which is in contrast to North Atlantic cyclones and unexpected from the high available growth potential in winter. We investigate this intensity suppression from a cyclone life-cycle perspective and show that in winter Kuroshio cyclones propagate away from the region where they can grow more quickly, East China Sea cyclones are not relevant before spring, and Kamchatka cyclones grow in a region of reduced growth potential.
Claudia Mignani, Jörg Wieder, Michael A. Sprenger, Zamin A. Kanji, Jan Henneberger, Christine Alewell, and Franz Conen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 657–664, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-657-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-657-2021, 2021
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Most precipitation above land starts with ice in clouds. It is promoted by extremely rare particles. Some ice-nucleating particles (INPs) cause cloud droplets to already freeze above −15°C, a temperature at which many clouds begin to snow. We found that the abundance of such INPs among other particles of similar size is highest in precipitating air masses and lowest when air carries desert dust. This brings us closer to understanding the interactions between land, clouds, and precipitation.
Stefan Rüdisühli, Michael Sprenger, David Leutwyler, Christoph Schär, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 675–699, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-675-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-675-2020, 2020
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Most precipitation over Europe is linked to low-pressure systems, cold fronts, warm fronts, or high-pressure systems. Based on a massive computer simulation able to resolve thunderstorms, we quantify in detail how much precipitation these weather systems produced during 2000–2008. We find distinct seasonal and regional differences, such as fronts precipitating a lot in fall and winter over the North Atlantic but high-pressure systems mostly in summer over the continent by way of thunderstorms.
Raphael Portmann, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 597–615, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-597-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-597-2020, 2020
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In September 2018 an intense Mediterranean cyclone with structural similarities to a hurricane, a so-called medicane, caused severe damage in Greece. Its development was uncertain, even just a few days in advance. The reason for this was uncertainties in the jet stream over the North Atlantic 3 d prior to cyclogenesis that propagated into the Mediterranean. They led to an uncertain position of the upper-level disturbance and, as a result, of the position and thermal structure of the cyclone.
Hanin Binder, Maxi Boettcher, Hanna Joos, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 577–595, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-577-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-577-2020, 2020
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Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are important cloud- and
precipitation-producing airstreams in extratropical cyclones. By combining satellite observations with model data from a new reanalysis dataset, this study provides detailed observational insight into the vertical cloud structure of WCBs. We find that the reanalyses essentially capture the observed cloud pattern, but the observations reveal mesoscale structures not resolved by the temporally and spatially much coarser-resolution model data.
Mauro Hermann, Lukas Papritz, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 497–518, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-497-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-497-2020, 2020
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We find, by tracing backward in time, that air masses causing extensive melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet originate from further south and lower altitudes than usual. Their exceptional warmth further arises due to ascent and cloud formation, which is special compared to near-surface heat waves in the midlatitudes or the central Arctic. The atmospheric systems and transport pathways identified here are crucial in understanding and simulating the atmospheric control of the ice sheet in the future.
Sebastian Schemm, Stefan Rüdisühli, and Michael Sprenger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 459–479, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-459-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-459-2020, 2020
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Troughs and ridges are ubiquitous flow features in the upper troposphere and are centerpiece elements of weather and climate research. A novel method is introduced to identify and track the life cycle of troughs and ridges and their orientation. The aim is to close the existing gap between methods that detect the initiation phase and methods that detect the decaying phase of Rossby wave development. Global climatologies, the influence of ENSO and Lagrangian characteristics are discussed.
Nicolas Jullien, Étienne Vignon, Michael Sprenger, Franziska Aemisegger, and Alexis Berne
The Cryosphere, 14, 1685–1702, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1685-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1685-2020, 2020
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Although snowfall is the main input of water to the Antarctic ice sheet, snowflakes are often evaporated by dry and fierce winds near the surface of the continent. The amount of snow that actually reaches the ground is therefore considerably reduced. By analyzing the position of cyclones and fronts as well as by back-tracing the atmospheric moisture pathway towards Antarctica, this study explains in which meteorological conditions snowfall is either completely evaporated or reaches the ground.
Iris Thurnherr, Anna Kozachek, Pascal Graf, Yongbiao Weng, Dimitri Bolshiyanov, Sebastian Landwehr, Stephan Pfahl, Julia Schmale, Harald Sodemann, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Alessandro Toffoli, Heini Wernli, and Franziska Aemisegger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 5811–5835, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5811-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5811-2020, 2020
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Stable water isotopes (SWIs) are tracers of moist atmospheric processes. We analyse the impact of large- to small-scale atmospheric processes and various environmental conditions on the variability of SWIs using ship-based SWI measurement in water vapour from the Atlantic and Southern Ocean. Furthermore, simultaneous measurements of SWIs at two altitudes are used to illustrate the potential of such measurements for future research to estimate sea spray evaporation and turbulent moisture fluxes.
Philipp Zschenderlein, Stephan Pfahl, Heini Wernli, and Andreas H. Fink
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 191–206, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-191-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-191-2020, 2020
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We analyse the formation of upper-tropospheric anticyclones connected to European surface heat waves. Tracing air masses backwards from these anticyclones, we found that trajectories are diabatically heated in two branches, either by North Atlantic cyclones or by convection closer to the heat wave anticyclone. The first branch primarily affects the onset of the anticyclone, while the second branch is more relevant for the maintenance. Our results are relevant for heat wave predictions.
Annika Oertel, Maxi Boettcher, Hanna Joos, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 127–153, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-127-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-127-2020, 2020
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Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are important, mainly stratiform cloud forming airstreams in extratropical cyclones that can include embedded convection. This WCB case study systematically compares the characteristics of convective vs. slantwise ascent of the WCB. We find that embedded convection leads to regions of significantly stronger precipitation. Moreover, it strongly modifies the potential vorticity distribution in the lower and upper troposphere, where its also influences the waveguide.
Matthias Röthlisberger, Michael Sprenger, Emmanouil Flaounas, Urs Beyerle, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 45–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-45-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-45-2020, 2020
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In this study we quantify how much the coldest, middle and hottest third of all days during extremely hot summers contribute to their respective seasonal mean anomaly. This
extreme-summer substructurevaries substantially across the Northern Hemisphere and is directly related to the local physical drivers of extreme summers. Furthermore, comparing re-analysis (i.e. measurement-based) and climate model extreme-summer substructures reveals a remarkable level of agreement.
Thomas Trickl, Hannes Vogelmann, Ludwig Ries, and Michael Sprenger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 243–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-243-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-243-2020, 2020
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Ozone transfer from the stratosphere to the troposphere seems to to have grown over the past decade, parallel to global warming. Lidar measurements, carried out in Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany, between 2007 and 2016 show a considerable stratospheric influence in the free troposphere over these sites, with observations of stratospheric layers in the troposphere on 84 % of the measurement days. This high fraction is almost reached also in North America, but frequently not throughout the year.
Bojan Škerlak, Stephan Pfahl, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 6535–6549, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6535-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6535-2019, 2019
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Upper-level fronts are often associated with the rapid transport of stratospheric air to the lower troposphere, leading to significantly enhanced ozone concentrations. This paper considers the multi-scale nature that is needed to bring stratospheric air down to the surface. The final transport step to the surface can be related to frontal zones and the associated vertical winds or to near-horizontal tracer transport followed by entrainment into a growing planetary boundary layer.
Pascal Graf, Heini Wernli, Stephan Pfahl, and Harald Sodemann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 747–765, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-747-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-747-2019, 2019
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This article studies the interaction between falling rain and vapour with stable water isotopes. In particular, rain evaporation is relevant for several atmospheric processes, but remains difficult to quantify. A novel framework is introduced to facilitate the interpretation of stable water isotope observations in near-surface vapour and rain. The usefulness of this concept is demonstrated using observations at high time resolution from a cold front. Sensitivities are tested with a simple model.
Yulan Zhang, Shichang Kang, Michael Sprenger, Zhiyuan Cong, Tanguang Gao, Chaoliu Li, Shu Tao, Xiaofei Li, Xinyue Zhong, Min Xu, Wenjun Meng, Bigyan Neupane, Xiang Qin, and Mika Sillanpää
The Cryosphere, 12, 413–431, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-413-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-413-2018, 2018
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Light-absorbing impurities deposited on snow can reduce surface albedo and contribute to the near-worldwide melting of snowpack and ice. This study focused on the black carbon and mineral dust in snow cover on the Tibetan Plateau. We discussed their concentrations, distributions, possible sources, and albedo reduction and radiative forcing. Findings indicated that the impacts of black carbon and mineral dust need to be properly accounted for in future regional climate projections.
Marina Dütsch, Stephan Pfahl, Miro Meyer, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 1653–1669, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1653-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1653-2018, 2018
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Atmospheric processes are imprinted in the concentrations of stable water isotopes. Therefore, isotopes can be used to gain insight into these processes and improve our understanding of the water cycle. In this study, we present a new method that quantitatively shows which atmospheric processes influence isotope concentrations in near-surface water vapour over Europe. We found that the most important processes are evaporation from the ocean, evapotranspiration from land, and turbulent mixing.
Thomas Trickl, Hannes Vogelmann, Ludwig Ries, Hans-Eckhart Scheel, and Michael Sprenger
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2017-1192, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2017-1192, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Hanna Joos, Erica Madonna, Kasja Witlox, Sylvaine Ferrachat, Heini Wernli, and Ulrike Lohmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6243–6255, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6243-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6243-2017, 2017
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The influence of pollution on the precipitation formation in warm conveyor belts (WCBs), the most rising air streams in low-pressure systems is investigated. We investigate in detail the cloud properties and resulting precipitation along these rising airstreams which are simulated with a global climate model. Overall, no big impact of aerosols on precipitation can be seen, however, when comparing the most polluted/cleanest WCBs, a suppression of precipitation by aerosols is observed.
Harald Sodemann, Franziska Aemisegger, Stephan Pfahl, Mark Bitter, Ulrich Corsmeier, Thomas Feuerle, Pascal Graf, Rolf Hankers, Gregor Hsiao, Helmut Schulz, Andreas Wieser, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6125–6151, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6125-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6125-2017, 2017
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We report here the first survey of stable water isotope composition over the Mediterranean sea made from aircraft. The stable isotope composition of the atmospheric water vapour changed in response to evaporation conditions at the sea surface, elevation, and airmass transport history. Our data set will be valuable for testing how water is transported in weather prediction and climate models and for understanding processes in the Mediterranean water cycle.
Davide Putero, Paolo Cristofanelli, Michael Sprenger, Bojan Škerlak, Laura Tositti, and Paolo Bonasoni
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 14203–14217, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14203-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14203-2016, 2016
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The aim of this paper is to present STEFLUX, a tool to obtain a fast-computing identification of the stratospheric intrusion (SI) events occurring at a specific location and during a specified time window. STEFLUX results are compared to the SI observations at two high-mountain WMO/GAW global stations in Nepal and Italy, representative of two hot spots for climate change. Furthermore, the climatology of SI at the two stations is assessed, and the impact of several climate factors investigated.
Dimitris Akritidis, Andrea Pozzer, Prodromos Zanis, Evangelos Tyrlis, Bojan Škerlak, Michael Sprenger, and Jos Lelieveld
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 14025–14039, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14025-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14025-2016, 2016
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We investigate the contribution of tropopause folds in the summertime tropospheric ozone pool over the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. For this purpose we use the EMAC atmospheric chemistry–climate model and a fold identification algorithm. A clear increase of ozone is found in the middle troposphere due to fold activity. The interannual variability of near-surface ozone over the eastern Mediterranean is related to that of both tropopause folds and ozone in the free troposphere.
Thomas Trickl, Hannes Vogelmann, Andreas Fix, Andreas Schäfler, Martin Wirth, Bertrand Calpini, Gilbert Levrat, Gonzague Romanens, Arnoud Apituley, Keith M. Wilson, Robert Begbie, Jens Reichardt, Holger Vömel, and Michael Sprenger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 8791–8815, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8791-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8791-2016, 2016
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A rather homogeneous deep stratospheric intrusion event was mapped by vertical sounding over central Europe and by model calculations along the transport path. The very low minimum H2O mixing ratios demonstrate almost negligible mixing with tropospheric air during the downward transport. The vertical distributions of O3 and aerosol were transferred from the source region to Europe without major change. A rather shallow outflow from the stratosphere was found.
Florian Berkes, Peter Hoor, Heiko Bozem, Daniel Kunkel, Michael Sprenger, and Stephan Henne
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 6011–6025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6011-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6011-2016, 2016
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We presented airborne measurements of CO2 and O3 across the entrainment zone over a semi-remote environment in southwestern Germany in late summer 2011 .
For the first time CO2 and O3 were used as tracer to identify mixing through this transport barrier. We demonstrated that the tracer--tracer correlation of CO2 and O3 is a powerful tool to identify entrainment and mixing.
P. Reutter, B. Škerlak, M. Sprenger, and H. Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10939–10953, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10939-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10939-2015, 2015
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In this manuscript, we investigate the exchange of air masses across the dynamical tropopause (stratosphere-troposphere exchange, STE) in the vicinity of North Atlantic cyclones. By using two 6-hourly resolved ERA-Interim climatologies of STE and cyclones from 1979 to 2011, we are able to directly compute the amount of STE in the vicinity of every individual cyclone in this time period. This enables us to provide a robust and consistent quantification of STE near North Atlantic cyclones.
M. Sprenger and H. Wernli
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2569–2586, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2569-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2569-2015, 2015
A. Kunz, N. Spelten, P. Konopka, R. Müller, R. M. Forbes, and H. Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 10803–10822, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10803-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10803-2014, 2014
T. Trickl, H. Vogelmann, H. Giehl, H.-E. Scheel, M. Sprenger, and A. Stohl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 9941–9961, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9941-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9941-2014, 2014
P. Reutter, J. Trentmann, A. Seifert, P. Neis, H. Su, D. Chang, M. Herzog, H. Wernli, M. O. Andreae, and U. Pöschl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 7573–7583, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7573-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7573-2014, 2014
H. Joos, P. Spichtinger, P. Reutter, and F. Fusina
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 6835–6852, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6835-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6835-2014, 2014
C. M. Grams, H. Binder, S. Pfahl, N. Piaget, and H. Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1691–1702, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1691-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1691-2014, 2014
A. Winschall, S. Pfahl, H. Sodemann, and H. Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 6605–6619, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6605-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6605-2014, 2014
F. Aemisegger, S. Pfahl, H. Sodemann, I. Lehner, S. I. Seneviratne, and H. Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 4029–4054, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4029-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4029-2014, 2014
B. Škerlak, M. Sprenger, and H. Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 913–937, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-913-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-913-2014, 2014
A. K. Miltenberger, S. Pfahl, and H. Wernli
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1989–2004, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1989-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1989-2013, 2013
C. Frick, A. Seifert, and H. Wernli
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1925–1939, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1925-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1925-2013, 2013
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Life cycle dynamics of Greenland blocking from a potential vorticity perspective
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Analysing 23 years of warm-season derechos in France: a climatology and investigation of synoptic and environmental changes
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Aleksa Stanković, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Rodrigo Caballero
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 821–837, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024, 2024
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The article studies extreme winds near the surface over the North Atlantic Ocean. These winds are caused by storms that pass through this region. The strongest storms that have occurred in the winters from 1950–2020 are studied in detail and compared to weaker but still strong storms. The analysis shows that the storms associated with the strongest winds are preceded by another older storm that travelled through the same region and made the conditions suitable for development of extreme winds.
Edward Groot, Patrick Kuntze, Annette Miltenberger, and Holger Tost
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 779–803, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-779-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-779-2024, 2024
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Deep convective clouds (thunderstorms), which may cause severe weather, tend to coherently organise into structured cloud systems. Accurate representation of these systems in models is difficult due to their complex dynamics and, in numerical simulations, the dependence of their dynamics on resolution. Here, the effect of convective organisation and geometry on their outflow winds (altitudes of 7–14 km) is investigated. Representation of their dynamics and outflows improves at higher resolution.
Stephen Outten and Richard Davy
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 753–762, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-753-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-753-2024, 2024
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The North Atlantic Oscillation is linked to wintertime weather events over Europe. One feature often overlooked is how much the climate variability explained by the NAO has changed over time. We show that there has been a considerable increase in the percentage variance explained by the NAO over the 20th century and that this is not reproduced by 50 CMIP6 climate models, which are generally biased too high. This has implications for projections and prediction of weather events in the region.
Seraphine Hauser, Franziska Teubler, Michael Riemer, Peter Knippertz, and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 633–658, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-633-2024, 2024
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Blocking over Greenland has substantial impacts on the weather and climate in mid- and high latitudes. This study applies a quasi-Lagrangian thinking on the dynamics of Greenland blocking and reveals two pathways of anticyclonic anomalies linked to the block. Moist processes were found to play a dominant role in the formation and maintenance of blocking. This emphasizes the necessity of the correct representation of moist processes in weather and climate models to realistically depict blocking.
Konstantin Krüger, Andreas Schäfler, Martin Weissmann, and George C. Craig
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 491–509, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-491-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-491-2024, 2024
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Initial conditions of current numerical weather prediction models insufficiently represent the sharp vertical gradients across the midlatitude tropopause. Observation-space data assimilation output is used to study the influence of assimilated radiosondes on the tropopause. The radiosondes reduce systematic biases of the model background and sharpen temperature and wind gradients in the analysis. Tropopause sharpness is still underestimated in the analysis, which may impact weather forecasts.
Lucas Fery and Davide Faranda
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 439–461, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-439-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-439-2024, 2024
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In this study, we analyse warm-season derechos – a type of severe convective windstorm – in France between 2000 and 2022, identifying 38 events. We compare their frequency and features with other countries. We also examine changes in the associated large-scale patterns. We find that convective instability has increased in southern Europe. However, the attribution of these changes to natural climate variability, human-induced climate change or a combination of both remains unclear.
Lukas Jansing, Lukas Papritz, and Michael Sprenger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 463–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-463-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-463-2024, 2024
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Using an innovative approach, the descent of foehn is diagnosed from a Lagrangian perspective based on 15 kilometer-scale simulations combined with online trajectories. The descent is confined to distinct hotspots in the immediate lee of local mountain peaks and chains. Two detailed case studies reveal a varying wave regime to be associated with the descent. Furthermore, additional controlling factors, such as the diurnal cycle, likewise influence the descent activity.
Alexander Scherrmann, Heini Wernli, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 419–438, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-419-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-419-2024, 2024
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We show that the formation of Mediterranean cyclones follows the presence of cyclones over the North Atlantic. The distinct regions of cyclone activity in the Mediterranean in the different seasons can be linked to the atmospheric state, in particular the position of the polar jet over the North Atlantic. With this we now better understand the processes that lead to the formation of Mediterranean cyclones. We used a novel simulation framework in which we directly show and probe this connection.
Belinda Hotz, Lukas Papritz, and Matthias Röthlisberger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 323–343, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-323-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-323-2024, 2024
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Analysing the vertical structure of temperature anomalies of recent record-breaking heatwaves reveals a complex four-dimensional interplay of anticyclone–heatwave interactions, with vertically strongly varying advective, adiabatic, and diabatic contributions to the respective temperature anomalies. The heatwaves featured bottom-heavy positive temperature anomalies, extending throughout the troposphere.
Alexandre Tuel and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 263–292, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-263-2024, 2024
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Warm and cold spells often have damaging consequences for agriculture, power demand, human health and infrastructure, especially when they occur over large areas and persist for a week or more. Here, we split the Northern Hemisphere extratropics into coherent regions where 3-week warm and cold spells in winter and summer are associated with the same large-scale circulation patterns. To understand their physical drivers, we analyse the associated circulation and temperature budget anomalies.
Marta Wenta, Christian M. Grams, Lukas Papritz, and Marc Federer
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 181–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-181-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-181-2024, 2024
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Our study links air–sea interactions over the Gulf Stream to an atmospheric block in February 2019. We found that over 23 % of air masses that were lifted into the block by cyclones interacted with the Gulf Stream. As cyclones pass over the Gulf Stream, they cause intense surface evaporation events, preconditioning the environment for the development of cyclones. This implies that air–sea interactions over the Gulf Stream affect the large-scale dynamics in the North Atlantic–European region.
Alice Portal, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Jennifer L. Catto, Yonatan Givon, and Olivia Martius
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-270, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-270, 2024
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Mediterranean cyclones are associated with extended rain, wind and wave impacts. Although beneficial for regional water resources, their passage may induce extreme weather, which is specially impactful when multiple hazards combine together. Here we show how the passage of Mediterranean cyclones increases the likelihood of rain-wind and wave-wind compounding, and how compound-cyclone statistics varies by region and season, but also depends on the presence of specific airflows around the cyclone.
Yonatan Givon, Or Hess, Emmanouil Flaounas, Jennifer Louise Catto, Michael Sprenger, and Shira Raveh-Rubin
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 133–162, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-133-2024, 2024
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A novel classification of Mediterranean cyclones is presented, enabling a separation between storms driven by different atmospheric processes. The surface impact of each cyclone class differs greatly by precipitation, winds, and temperatures, providing an invaluable tool to study the climatology of different types of Mediterranean storms and enhancing the understanding of their predictability, on both weather and climate scales.
Talia Tamarin-Brodsky and Nili Harnik
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 87–108, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-87-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-87-2024, 2024
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Synoptic waves in the atmosphere tend to follow a typical Rossby wave lifecycle, involving a linear growth stage followed by nonlinear and irreversible Rossby wave breaking (RWB). Here we take a new approach to study RWB events and their fundamental relation to weather systems by combining a storm-tracking technique and an RWB detection algorithm. The synoptic-scale dynamics leading to RWB is then examined by analyzing time evolution composites of cyclones and anticyclones during RWB events.
Sebastian Schemm and Matthias Röthlisberger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 43–63, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-43-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-43-2024, 2024
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Climate change has started to weaken atmospheric circulation during summer in the Northern Hemisphere. However, there is low agreement on the processes underlying changes in, for example, the stationarity of weather patterns or the seasonality of the jet response to warming. This study examines changes during summertime in an idealised setting and confirms some important changes in hemisphere-wide wave and jet characteristics under warming.
Patrick Martineau, Swadhin K. Behera, Masami Nonaka, Hisashi Nakamura, and Yu Kosaka
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1-2024, 2024
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The representation of subweekly near-surface temperature variability trends over the Southern Hemisphere landmasses is compared across multiple atmospheric reanalyses. It is found that there is generally a good agreement concerning the positive trends affecting South Africa and Australia in the spring, and South America in the summer. A more efficient generation of subweekly temperature variance by horizontal temperature fluxes contributes to the observed rise.
Lea Eisenstein, Benedikt Schulz, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Peter Knippertz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 981–999, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-981-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-981-2023, 2023
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Mesoscale high-wind features within extratropical cyclones can cause immense damage. In Part 1 of this work, we introduced RAMEFI (RAndom-forest-based MEsoscale wind Feature Identification), an objective, flexible identification tool for these wind features based on a probabilistic random forest. Here, we use RAMEFI to compile a climatology of the features over 19 extended winter seasons over western and central Europe, focusing on relative occurrence, affected areas and further characteristics.
Tiina Nygård, Lukas Papritz, Tuomas Naakka, and Timo Vihma
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 943–961, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-943-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-943-2023, 2023
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Despite the general warming trend, wintertime cold-air outbreaks in Europe have remained nearly as extreme and as common as decades ago. In this study, we identify six principal cold anomaly types over Europe in 1979–2020. We show the origins of various physical processes and their contributions to the formation of cold wintertime air masses.
Andrea Marcheggiani and Thomas Spengler
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 927–942, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-927-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-927-2023, 2023
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There is a gap between the theoretical understanding and model representation of moist diabatic effects on the evolution of storm tracks. We seek to bridge this gap by exploring the relationship between diabatic and adiabatic contributions to changes in baroclinicity. We find reversed behaviours in the lower and upper troposphere in the maintenance of baroclinicity. In particular, our study reveals a link between higher moisture availability and upper-tropospheric restoration of baroclinicity.
Raphaël Rousseau-Rizzi, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Jennifer Catto, Alice Portal, Yonatan Givon, and Olivia Martius
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2322, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2322, 2023
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We aim to identify the situations when rain and wind, rain and wave, or heat and dust hazards co-occur within cyclones in the Mediterranean. These poorly understood hazard combinations respectively enhance the risk to infrastructure, the risk of coastal flooding, and the risk of respiratory issues. We identify distinct weather configurations and distinct cyclone structures, which favor distinct co-occurrence combinations. This has implications for the forecasting of these hazards.
Moritz Deinhard and Christian M. Grams
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1938, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1938, 2023
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Stochastic perturbations are a frequently used technique to represent model uncertainties in numerical weather prediction. While such schemes are beneficial for the forecast skill, they can also change the mean state of the model. We focus on how different schemes modulate rapidly ascending air streams, such as warm conveyor belts, and whether the changes to these weather systems are projected onto larger scales. We thereby provide a process chain how perturbations affect the model climate.
Alice Portal, Fabio D'Andrea, Paolo Davini, Mostafa E. Hamouda, and Claudia Pasquero
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 809–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-809-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-809-2023, 2023
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The differences between climate models can be exploited to infer how specific aspects of the climate influence the Earth system. This work analyses the effects of a negative temperature anomaly over the Tibetan Plateau on the winter atmospheric circulation. We show that models with a colder-than-average Tibetan Plateau present a reinforcement of the eastern Asian winter monsoon and discuss the atmospheric response to the enhanced transport of cold air from the continent toward the Pacific Ocean.
Henri Rossi Pinheiro, Kevin Ivan Hodges, and Manoel Alonso Gan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1996, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1996, 2023
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Our study on upper-level cyclones, known as cut-off lows (COLs), uncovers deepening mechanisms and geographical influences. Complex interactions, crucial for accurate forecasts, are revealed through advanced methods. Analysis of atmospheric data across regions like Australia, the western Pacific, and southeast South America shows frequent deep COLs. By assessing energy budgets, we unveil robust growth patterns, helping our predictive abilities for weather impacts.
Charlie C. Suitters, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Kevin I. Hodges, Reinhard K. H. Schiemann, and Duncan Ackerley
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 683–700, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-683-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-683-2023, 2023
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Atmospheric blocking describes large and persistent high surface pressure. In this study, the relationship between block persistence and smaller-scale systems is examined. Persistent blocks result from more interactions with small systems, but a block's persistence does not depend as strongly on the strength of these smaller features. This work is important because it provides more knowledge as to how blocks can be allowed to persist, which is something we still do not fully understand.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Leonardo Aragão, Lisa Bernini, Stavros Dafis, Benjamin Doiteau, Helena Flocas, Suzanne L. Gray, Alexia Karwat, John Kouroutzoglou, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Florian Pantillon, Claudia Pasquero, Platon Patlakas, María Ángeles Picornell, Federico Porcù, Matthew D. K. Priestley, Marco Reale, Malcolm J. Roberts, Hadas Saaroni, Dor Sandler, Enrico Scoccimarro, Michael Sprenger, and Baruch Ziv
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 639–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023, 2023
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Cyclone detection and tracking methods (CDTMs) have different approaches in defining and tracking cyclone centers. This leads to disagreements on extratropical cyclone climatologies. We present a new approach that combines tracks from individual CDTMs to produce new composite tracks. These new tracks are shown to correspond to physically meaningful systems with distinctive life stages.
Deborah Morgenstern, Isabell Stucke, Georg J. Mayr, Achim Zeileis, and Thorsten Simon
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 489–509, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-489-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-489-2023, 2023
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Two thunderstorm environments are described for Europe: mass-field thunderstorms, which occur mostly in summer, over land, and under similar meteorological conditions, and wind-field thunderstorms, which occur mostly in winter, over the sea, and under more diverse meteorological conditions. Our descriptions are independent of static thresholds and help to understand why thunderstorms in unfavorable seasons for lightning pose a particular risk to tall infrastructure such as wind turbines.
Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 427–447, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-427-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-427-2023, 2023
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In this study, we analyse the generic atmospheric processes of very extreme, 100-year precipitation events in large central European river catchments and the corresponding differences to less extreme events, based on a large time series (~1200 years) of simulated but realistic daily precipitation events from the ECMWF. Depending on the catchment, either dynamical mechanisms or thermodynamic conditions or a combination of both distinguish 100-year events from less extreme precipitation events.
Seraphine Hauser, Franziska Teubler, Michael Riemer, Peter Knippertz, and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 399–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-399-2023, 2023
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Blocking describes a flow configuration in the midlatitudes where stationary high-pressure systems block the propagation of weather systems. This study combines three individual perspectives that capture the dynamics and importance of various processes in the formation of a major blocking in 2016 from a weather regime perspective. In future work, this framework will enable a holistic view of the dynamics and the role of moist processes in different life cycle stages of blocked weather regimes.
Charles G. Gertler, Paul A. O'Gorman, and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 361–379, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-361-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-361-2023, 2023
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The relationship between the time-mean state of the atmosphere and aspects of atmospheric circulation drives general understanding of the atmospheric circulation. Here, we present new techniques to calculate local properties of the time-mean atmosphere and relate those properties to aspects of extratropical circulation with important implications for weather. This relationship should help connect changes to the atmosphere, such as under global warming, to changes in midlatitude weather.
Colin Manning, Martin Widmann, Douglas Maraun, Anne F. Van Loon, and Emanuele Bevacqua
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 309–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-309-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-309-2023, 2023
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Climate models differ in their representation of dry spells and high temperatures, linked to errors in the simulation of persistent large-scale anticyclones. Models that simulate more persistent anticyclones simulate longer and hotter dry spells, and vice versa. This information is important to consider when assessing the likelihood of such events in current and future climate simulations so that we can assess the plausibility of their future projections.
Franziska Teubler, Michael Riemer, Christopher Polster, Christian M. Grams, Seraphine Hauser, and Volkmar Wirth
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 265–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-265-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-265-2023, 2023
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Weather regimes govern an important part of the sub-seasonal variability of the mid-latitude circulation. The year-round dynamics of blocked regimes in the Atlantic European region are investigated in over 40 years of data. We show that the dynamics between the regimes are on average very similar. Within the regimes, the main variability – starting from the characteristics of dynamical processes alone – dominates and transcends the variability in season and types of transitions.
Antonio Segalini, Jacopo Riboldi, Volkmar Wirth, and Gabriele Messori
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-316, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-316, 2023
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Planetary Rossby waves are created by topography and evolve in time. In this work, an analytical solution of this classical problem is proposed under the approximation of linear wave dynamics. The theory is able to describe reasonably well the evolution of the perturbation and compares well with full nonlinear simulations. Several relevant cases with single and double zonal jets are assessed with the theoretical framework
Acacia S. Pepler and Irina Rudeva
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 175–188, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-175-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-175-2023, 2023
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In recent decades, cold fronts have rained less often in southeast Australia, which contributes to decreasing cool season rainfall. The largest changes in front dynamics are found to the north of the area where rain changes. Wet fronts have strong westerly winds that reach much further north than dry fronts do, and these fronts are becoming less common, linked to weakening subtropical winds and changes in the Southern Hemisphere circulation.
Alexander Scherrmann, Heini Wernli, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 157–173, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-157-2023, 2023
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We investigate the dynamical origin of the lower-atmospheric potential vorticity (PV; linked to the intensity of cyclones) in Mediterranean cyclones. We quantify the contribution of the cyclone and the environment by tracing PV backward in time and space and linking it to the track of the cyclone. We find that the lower-tropospheric PV is produced shortly before the cyclone's stage of highest intensity. We investigate the driving processes and use a global dataset and a process-resolving one.
Felix Jäger, Philip Rupp, and Thomas Birner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 49–60, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-49-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-49-2023, 2023
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Mid-latitude weather is dominated by the growth, breaking and decay of baroclinic waves and associated jet shifts. A way to study this process is via idealised life-cycle simulations, which are often classified as LC1 (anticyclonic breaking, poleward shift) or LC2 (cyclonic breaking, equatorward shift), depending on details of the initial state. We show that all systems exhibit predominantly anticyclonic character and poleward net shifts if multiple wave modes are allowed to grow simultaneously.
Philipp Breul, Paulo Ceppi, and Theodore G. Shepherd
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 39–47, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-39-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-39-2023, 2023
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Accurately predicting the response of the midlatitude jet stream to climate change is very important, but models show a variety of possible scenarios. Previous work identified a relationship between climatological jet latitude and future jet shift in the southern hemispheric winter. We show that the relationship does not hold in separate sectors and propose that zonal asymmetries are the ultimate cause in the zonal mean. This questions the usefulness of the relationship.
Patrick Johannes Stoll, Rune Grand Graversen, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1-2023, 2023
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The atmosphere is in motion and hereby transporting warm, cold, moist, and dry air to different climate zones. In this study, we investigate how this transport of energy organises in different manners. Outside the tropics, atmospheric waves of sizes between 2000 and 8000 km, which we perceive as cyclones from the surface, transport most of the energy and moisture poleward. In the winter, large-scale weather situations become very important for transporting energy into the polar regions.
Lisa Schielicke and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1439–1459, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1439-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1439-2022, 2022
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Projected future heatwaves in many European regions will be even warmer than the mean increase in summer temperature suggests. To identify the underlying thermodynamic and dynamic processes, we compare Lagrangian backward trajectories of airstreams associated with heatwaves in two time slices (1991–2000 and 2091–2100) in a large single-model ensemble (CEMS-LE). We find stronger future descent associated with adiabatic warming in some regions and increased future diabatic heating in most regions.
Iana Strigunova, Richard Blender, Frank Lunkeit, and Nedjeljka Žagar
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1399–1414, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1399-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1399-2022, 2022
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We show that the Eurasian heat waves (HWs) have signatures in the global circulation. We present changes in the probability density functions (PDFs) of energy anomalies in the zonal-mean state and in the Rossby waves at different zonal scales in relation to the changes in intramonthly variability. The skewness of the PDF of planetary-scale Rossby waves is shown to increase during HWs, while their intramonthly variability is reduced, a process referred to as blocking.
Anubhav Choudhary and Aiko Voigt
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1199–1214, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1199-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1199-2022, 2022
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The warm conveyor belt (WCB), which is a stream of coherently rising air parcels, is an important feature of extratropical cyclones. This work presents the impact of model grid spacing on simulation of cloud diabatic processes in the WCB of a North Atlantic cyclone. We find that the refinement of the model grid systematically enhances the dynamical properties and heat releasing processes within the WCB. However, this pattern does not have a strong impact on the strength of associated cyclones.
S. Mubashshir Ali, Matthias Röthlisberger, Tess Parker, Kai Kornhuber, and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1139–1156, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1139-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1139-2022, 2022
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Persistent weather can lead to extreme weather conditions. One such atmospheric flow pattern, termed recurrent Rossby wave packets (RRWPs), has been shown to increase persistent weather in the Northern Hemisphere. Here, we show that RRWPs are also an important feature in the Southern Hemisphere. We evaluate the role of RRWPs during south-eastern Australian heatwaves and find that they help to persist the heatwaves by forming upper-level high-pressure systems over south-eastern Australia.
Lea Eisenstein, Benedikt Schulz, Ghulam A. Qadir, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Peter Knippertz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1157–1182, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1157-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1157-2022, 2022
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Mesoscale high-wind features within extratropical cyclones can cause immense damage. Here, we present RAMEFI, a novel approach to objectively identify the wind features based on a probabilistic random forest. RAMEFI enables a wide range of applications such as probabilistic predictions for the occurrence or a multi-decadal climatology of these features, which will be the focus of Part 2 of the study, with the goal of improving wind and, specifically, wind gust forecasts in the long run.
Lukas Jansing, Lukas Papritz, Bruno Dürr, Daniel Gerstgrasser, and Michael Sprenger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1113–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1113-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1113-2022, 2022
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This study presents a 5-year climatology of three main foehn types and three deep-foehn subtypes. The main types differ in their large-scale and Alpine-scale weather conditions and the subtypes in terms of the amount and extent of precipitation on the Alpine south side. The different types of foehn are found to strongly affect the local meteorological conditions at Altdorf. The study concludes by setting the new classification into a historic context.
Valerio Lembo, Federico Fabiano, Vera Melinda Galfi, Rune Grand Graversen, Valerio Lucarini, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1037–1062, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1037-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1037-2022, 2022
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Eddies in mid-latitudes characterize the exchange of heat between the tropics and the poles. This exchange is largely uneven, with a few extreme events bearing most of the heat transported across latitudes in a season. It is thus important to understand what the dynamical mechanisms are behind these events. Here, we identify recurrent weather regime patterns associated with extreme transports, and we identify scales of mid-latitudinal eddies that are mostly responsible for the transport.
Fei Luo, Frank Selten, Kathrin Wehrli, Kai Kornhuber, Philippe Le Sager, Wilhelm May, Thomas Reerink, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Hideo Shiogama, Daisuke Tokuda, Hyungjun Kim, and Dim Coumou
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 905–935, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-905-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-905-2022, 2022
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Recent studies have identified the weather systems in observational data, where wave patterns with high-magnitude values that circle around the whole globe in either wavenumber 5 or wavenumber 7 are responsible for the extreme events. In conclusion, we find that the climate models are able to reproduce the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns as well as their associated surface variables such as temperature, precipitation, and sea level pressure.
Meryl Wimmer, Gwendal Rivière, Philippe Arbogast, Jean-Marcel Piriou, Julien Delanoë, Carole Labadie, Quitterie Cazenave, and Jacques Pelon
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 863–882, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-863-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-863-2022, 2022
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The effect of deep convection representation on the jet stream above the cold front of an extratropical cyclone is investigated in the global numerical weather prediction model ARPEGE. Two simulations using different deep convection schemes are compared with (re)analysis datasets and NAWDEX airborne observations. A deeper jet stream is observed with the less active scheme. The diabatic origin of this difference is interpreted by backward Lagrangian trajectories and potential vorticity budgets.
Matthias Röthlisberger, Barbara Scherrer, Andries Jan de Vries, and Raphael Portmann
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 733–754, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-733-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-733-2022, 2022
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We examine the palette of synoptic storylines accompanying unusually long wet spells in Europe. Thereby, we identify a hitherto not documented mechanism for generating long wet spells which involves recurrent Rossby wave breaking and subsequent cutoff replenishment. Understanding the synoptic processes behind long wet spells is relevant in light of projected changes in wet spell characteristics as it is a prerequisite for evaluating climate models with regard to such events.
Paolo Davini, Federico Fabiano, and Irina Sandu
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 535–553, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-535-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-535-2022, 2022
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In climate models, improvements obtained in the winter mid-latitude circulation following horizontal resolution increase are mainly caused by the more detailed representation of the mean orography. A high-resolution climate model with low-resolution orography might underperform compared to a low-resolution model with low-resolution orography. The absence of proper model tuning at high resolution is considered the potential reason behind such lack of improvements.
Joshua Dorrington, Kristian Strommen, and Federico Fabiano
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 505–533, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-505-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-505-2022, 2022
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We investigate how well current state-of-the-art climate models reproduce the wintertime weather of the North Atlantic and western Europe by studying how well different "regimes" of weather are captured. Historically, models have struggled to capture these regimes, making it hard to predict future changes in wintertime extreme weather. We show models can capture regimes if the right method is used, but they show biases, partially as a result of biases in jet speed and eddy strength.
Jacopo Riboldi, Efi Rousi, Fabio D'Andrea, Gwendal Rivière, and François Lott
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 449–469, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-449-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-449-2022, 2022
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A revisited space and time spectral decomposition allows us to determine which harmonics dominate the upper-tropospheric flow evolution over a given time period as well as their propagation. This approach is used to identify Rossby wave patterns with a circumglobal extent, affecting weather evolution over different Northern Hemisphere regions. The results cast light on the processes originating and supporting these wave patterns, advocating at the same time for the usefulness of the technique.
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Short summary
Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are coherently ascending air streams that occur in extratropical cyclones where they form precipitation and often affect the large-scale flow. We quantified the key characteristics and impacts of WCBs and linked them to different phases in the cyclone life cycle and to different WCB branches. A climatology of these metrics revealed that WCBs are most intense during cyclone intensification and that the cyclonic and anticyclonic WCB branches show distinct differences.
Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are coherently ascending air streams that occur in extratropical...
